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Ngy : 19/01/2012
Gi ng ca
31,600
P/E 2012
1.6x
Tn cng ty
Khuyn ngh
QUAN ST
Gi mc tiu
Khuyn ngh u t:
Thng tin c bn
Sn phm chnh
Cao su
Vn iu l (t VND)
Vn ha th trng (t VND)
300
980
S hu nc ngoi
33%
S hu nh nc
60%
T l HQT v BKS
Khuyn
ngh
C cu doanh thu
69.36%
9.73%
9.97%
Nhng im ch :
10.94%
Latex
SVR 3L
SVR 20
Cc loi khc
Ch tiu
Doanh thu (triu ng)
Tng trng
T l li nhun gp trn doanh thu
T l li nhun thun trn doanh thu
Li nhun trc thu (triu ng)
Li nhun rng (triu ng)
Tng trng
EPS (ng)
TRC l doanh nghip c nng sut khai thc cao, hot ng hiu
qu, hng u t di hn u tp trung vo cy cao su.
Q4 2011E
Q1 2012F
Q2 2012F
Q3 2012F
Q4 2012F
2011E
2012F
384,305
23.32%
47.67%
46.40%
179,585
357,872
5.70%
25.83%
22.63%
89,466
149,360
17.46%
45.98%
64.04%
130,058
438,615
16.23%
48.04%
48.85%
240,986
461,332
20.04%
44.40%
43.57%
202,781
1,227,409
61.93%
43.01%
43.63%
590,724
1,407,179
14.65%
40.98%
42.06%
663,291
160,967
78,993
114,833
212,776
179,043
523,046
585,645
33.72%
12.58%
17.00%
9.81%
11.23%
90.47%
11.97%
5,438
2,669
3,879
7,188
6,049
17,670
19,785
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
Ngun :TRC
Vi vn cy tr, nng sut khai thc ca cng ty cao nht trong s 5 cng ty
ang nim yt hin nay, t 2.25 tn/ha, k sau l cng ty cao su ng Ph
vi nng sut 2.23 tn/ha.
4. Tnh hnh hot ng kinh doanh:
a. Doanh thu v li nhun
Nm 2010:
Nm 2010 c xem l nm tng trng mnh trong lch s ngnh v TRC
cng khng ngoi l. Trong nm 2010, gi cao su th gii trung bnh tng
80% so vi nm 2009, gi cao su xut khu trong nc bnh qun tng 79%,
bnh qun t 3,000 USD/tn.
Mc tng trng doanh thu v li Vi tnh hnh thun li nh trn nn li nhun ca TRC t mc tng trng
nhun nm 2010 ln lt l 72% v kh cao. Mc tng trng doanh thu v li nhun ln lt l 72% v 79%.
79%.
Gi bn m bnh qun trong nm 2010 l 63.3 triu/tn, tng 68.8% so vi
bnh qun nm 2009. S tng gi mnh l nguyn nhn dn n s tng
trng li nhun trong nm 2010.
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
Nm 2011:
Trong khi 55% sn lng cao su trong nc xut khu sang Trung Quc th
sn phm cao su ca TRC li ch yu xut sang th trng Chu u. Vi tnh
hnh n cng thng v kinh t tr tr ti khu vc ny nh hng n gi cao
su ca TRC. C th, gi cao su trung bnh trong qu 3/2011 mc 95.01
triu/tn, gim nh so vi mc 97.2 triu/tn ca trung bnh qu 2/2011, tuy
nhin so vi mc gi 57.44 triu/tn ca qu 3/2010, gi cao su ca TRC vn
tng mnh. Ly k 9 thng u nm 2011, gi cao su ca TRC t trung bnh
94.75 triu/tn.
So vi 9 thng u nm 2011, sn lng v gi tr xut khu cao su sang
Trung Quc u tng trng so vi nm 2010. C th, sn lng tng nh 8%
nhng gi tr tng n 72%. Tuy nhin, trong thng 9/2011, Trung Quc ch
cho nhp khu cao su qua ng chnh ngch, sn lng xut khu qua ng
tiu ngch gim ng k. Gi cao su SVR 3L bnh qun trong thng 9 l 4,452
USD/tn, gim 2.6% so vi thng trc. Ring th trng chu u, sn lng
xut khu gim nh gn 8%, s st gim n t th trng Nga, cc th trng
cn li nh c v Th Nh K u tng. Gi tr xut khu sang chu u
trong 9 thng u nm tng 46% so vi cng k.
V sn lng tiu th, sn lng tiu th lin tc gim trong qu 2 v 3 nm
2011 so vi cng k. C th, trong qu 3/2011 t 3,972 tn, gim nh so vi
mc 4,327 tn so vi cng k. Tuy nhin, sn lng tiu th trong qu 1 li
tng mnh gn 80%, t 3,618 tn.
Tng kt 9 thng u nm, doanh thu t 843 t, tng 88.9%, li nhun rng
t 362 t, tng 47%, gi bn bnh qun trong 9 thng t 94.75 triu ng,
trong khi cng k t 56.11 triu/tn.
Trong qu 4/2011, gi cao su trn cc th trng ln lin tc dc do nhu
cu tiu th gim v trin vng phc hi kinh t th gii m nht. chng ti
c on gi bn m trung bnh ca TRC trong qu 4 ny t 93.21 triu/tn,
tng 23% so vi cng k nm 2010 nhng gim so vi mc 95.01 triu/tn
ca qu 3/2011.
Chng ti c tnh nm 2011, cng ty t 1,227 t doanh thu v 523 t li
nhun sau thu. So vi nm 2010, doanh thu tng 62% , li nhun rng tng
90%, vt 74% k hoch nm 2011.
b. C cu n
V di hn, ngnh cao su t nhin lun i din vi tnh trng thiu ht lng
cung, y l yu t ch cht duy tr gi cao su mc cao. Trong nm 2012,
Hip Hi Cc Nc Sn Xut Cao Su Th Gii (ANRPC) d on lng
cung cao su t nhin ca cc nc trong hip hi tng 6%, t 10.3 triu tn
v lng sn xut ca c th gii khong 10.8 triu tn, trong khi T Chc
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
BO CO TI CHNH
n v tnh: triu ng
Kt qu kinh doanh
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2012F
549,115
342,616
206,499
6,434
25,907
17,928
192,627
5,593
198,220
198,220
6,697
440,353
289,795
150,558
4,219
21,105
11,979
137,213
25,297
162,510
9,220
153,290
5,200
757,981
432,480
325,500
7,451
57,139
29,989
290,895
14,097
304,992
30,386
274,606
9,277
1,227,409
699,560
527,849
9,675
50,557
67,936
535,552
55,171
590,724
67,678
523,046
17,670
1,407,179
830,479
576,699
11,073
58,747
84,999
591,879
71,412
663,291
77,645
585,645
19,785
Bng cn i k ton
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2012F
Tng ti sn
660,673
790,847
1,054,948
1,570,525
2,409,541
Ti sn ngn hn
209,649
304,843
578,169
860,733
1,391,063
Tin
255,931
146,354
350,692
522,083
830,135
22,854
10,025
34,682
51,632
74,086
Hng tn kho
27,175
38,863
85,584
127,411
257,821
u t di hn
102,032
129,410
138,286
205,870
295,401
Ti sn c nh
316,922
323,607
335,411
499,334
716,492
Tng n
156,206
162,638
287,548
428,079
770,249
N ngn hn
127,093
120,636
263,788
392,707
713,494
Khon phi tr
114,704
109,042
248,744
370,311
531,358
N di hn
29,112
42,002
23,759
35,371
56,753
Vn ch s hu
504,468
628,209
767,400
1,142,446
1,639,291
Vn iu l
300,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
Li nhun gi li
69,482
115,424
204,006
375,046
496,845
Ngun vn
660,673
790,847
1,054,948
1,570,525
2,409,541
N khc
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
Lu chuyn tin t
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2012F
38,600
123,222
349,819
53,752
133,431
Khu hao
198,220
-165,054
153,290
-174,590
274,606
-186,143
523,046
-277,115
585,645
-397,632
-176,405
63,412
169,348
-341,168
-225,394
181,839
81,110
92,008
148,990
170,811
Dng tin u t
Chi vn u t
FCF
u t bng ngun tin khc
(27,756)
(39,534)
-56,350
(22,907)
(29,970)
-423,216
-49,949
-67,860
281,959
92,008
-224,929
-250,560
148,990
-331,506
-357,137
173,446
658,380
-264,048
-196,808
-223,705
-54,588
-124,119
-209,892
-56,312
-95,532
-60,000
25,631
150,000
25,631
90,000
69,531
-153,580
-35,532
-67,678
-75,778
-43,744
299,675
-109,577
255,931
204,338
146,354
171,391
350,692
308,052
522,083
Tin mt cui k
255,931
146,354
350,692
522,083
830,135
2009
2010
11.63%
2.68%
-19.81%
-27.09%
72.13%
116.20%
61.93%
62.17%
14.65%
9.25%
9.06%
-28.77%
112.00%
84.10%
10.52%
11.71%
-22.67%
79.14%
90.47%
11.97%
37.61%
35.08%
36.10%
34.19%
31.16%
34.81%
42.94%
38.38%
36.23%
43.01%
43.63%
42.61%
40.98%
42.06%
41.62%
30.00%
39.29%
19.38%
24.40%
17.77%
24.04%
33.30%
45.78%
25.99%
35.73%
23.64%
20.57%
27.26%
37.47%
46.99%
30.96%
81.36%
25.89%
74.17%
37.47%
91.74%
27.26%
91.74%
31.97%
92.63%
S ngy tn kho
S ngy phi thu
24
23
41
13
70
11
81
16
83
16
S ngy phi tr
214
139
149
197
195
Phn tch t l
2008
2011E
2012F
Tng trng
Doanh thu
Li nhun gp
Li nhun kinh doanh
Li nhun rng
Kh nng sinh li
T l li nhun gp bin
T l LN HKD/doanh thu
T l li sau thu/doanh thu
ROA
ROE
C cu ngun vn
T l N/Vn ch s hu
T l N/ Tng ti sn
T l N NH/Tng n
Phn tch t l khc
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012
KHUYN CO:
Ni dung bn tin ny do Cng ty C phn Chng khon Phng Nam (PNS) cung cp ch mang tnh cht tham
kho. Mc d mi thng tin u c thu thp t cc ngun tin ng tin cy, nhng PNS khng m bo tuyt i
chnh xc ca thng tin v khng chu trch nhim i vi bt k vn no lin quan n vic s dng bn tin
ny.
Cc kin, d bo v c tnh ch th hin quan im ca ngi vit ti thi im pht hnh, bo co ch nhm
mc ch cung cp thng tin tham kho ch khng mang tnh cht mi cho mua hay bn v nm gi bt c c
phiu no.
Bo co ny l ti sn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Phng Nam (PNSC). Khng ai c php sao chp, ti
sn xut, pht hnh cng nh ti phn phi bo co ny v bt c mc ch no nu khng c s ng ca PNS.
Xin vui lng ghi r ngun khi trch dn cc thng tin trong bo co ny.
PNS RESEARCH
Trng phng
Chuyn vin phn tch
: T Bnh Quyn
: Lu Nim Dn
: Hunh Th Diu Linh
: L Th Thch Tho
quyen.to@ chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
dan.luu@ chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
linh.huynh@ chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
thao.le@ chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
LIN H
Phng Phn tch Cng ty c phn chng khon Phng Nam
a ch: 28 30 32 Nguyn Th Ngha, P. Bn Thnh, Q.1, Tp.HCM.
Tel: (848) 62556518 Fax: (848) 62556519
Email: info@chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
Website : www.chungkhoanphuongnam.com.vn
PNS Research
Thng 01/2012