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1
Bsau+uoe
euuauue
oueocpouumx
+uouo+uuecuux
u
mexuouoeuuecuux
cueuapuee
Bsau+uoe
Bsau+uoe
euuauue
euuauue
oueocpouumx
oueocpouumx
+uouo+uuecuux
+uouo+uuecuux
u
u
mexuouoeuuecuux
mexuouoeuuecuux
cueuapuee
cueuapuee
2012
EHTP
MAKPODKOHOMHHECKOFO
AHAHH3A
H
KPATKOCPOHHOFO
HPOFHO3HPOBAHHR
MAKH
2
1. Memoouoeua: +uoeeuusauua
uayuuo-
mexuouoeuuecuoeo
npoepecca: noue+y
u
uau?
1. 1. Memoouoeua Memoouoeua: : +uoeeuusauua +uoeeuusauua
uayuuo uayuuo- -
mexuouoeuuecuoeo mexuouoeuuecuoeo
npoepecca npoepecca: : noue+y noue+y
u u
uau uau? ?
MAKH
3
Bsauuopec1nue Bsauuopec1nue
cueuapuen cueuapuen
pasnu1un pasnu1un: : o1 o1
myune1epuauckoro myune1epuauckoro
nopxopa nopxopa
k k
noc11papuuuouuouy noc11papuuuouuouy
Tpannnonnmn
(myune1epnancxnn) noxo
Hayunt
n, uacrnuno, rexnonornuecxn
nponecc
anronomnt
n
+xsorennt.
Cymecrnyer
snaunrentnt
sanac
nayuntx
snann
n, uacrnuno,
]ynamenrantntx
nnnonann
(npnmept: naponax
mamnna; cnnrernuecxoe
ropmuee; pannne
nnanmernnxn,), nnmt
uacrt
ns
xoroptx
naxonr
cnpoc
n
xonxpernt
nepno;
Hepemenntm
]axropom
xnnxercx
cnpoc
na
nnnonannn, npnnxsannt
x
]ase
+xonomnuecxoro
nnxna
n
oycnannnnaemt
pacuncrxo
ptnxa
(creative
destruction) or
ne+]]exrnnntx
nponsnocrn
Cymecrnyer
nayunax
rpannnx
(Konparten
rexnonornuecxne
yxnat
Inastena),
oycnannnnammax
npnnxsxy
ontmoro
+xonomnuecxoro
nnxna
x
rexnonornuecxomy
no
npnnnnny
xomy
yanoct
nocnontsonartcx, ror
n
noenn.
MAKH
4
Bsauuopec1nue Bsauuopec1nue
cueuapuen cueuapuen
pasnu1un pasnu1un: : o1 o1
myune1epuauckoro myune1epuauckoro
nopxopa nopxopa
k k
noc11papuuuouuouy noc11papuuuouuouy
Hoc11pannnonnmn
noxo
(o1
K. Hepec
n
antme)
Texnonornuecxn
n, no
nce
ontme
crenenn, nayunt
nponecc
xnnxercx
+norenntm
n
onpeenxercx, n
snaunrentno
crenenn, ocrynnocrtm
ementx
ener - uacrntx
n
rocyapcrnenntx
nx
rexnonornuecxoro
pasnnrnx;
Coornercrnenno, onrocpount
rexnonornuecxn
n
+xonomnuecxn
nponecct
(n
npornost)
ennoe
nenoe
Houeuy
1ax
nonyunnoct?
o
cepennt
50x rr. nayuno-rexnonornuecxn
nponecc
ecrnnrentno, tn
n
snaunrentno
crenenn
anronomen. 3anac
nayuntx
napanrm
tn
n
snaunrentno
crenenn
c]opmnponan
n
nennxoe
copoxanxrnnerne
mexy
1870 n
1915 rr.
Ho
yxe
c
1960x rr. naunnaercx
rnyoxn
cnnr
]nnancnponannx
HHOKP
or
rocyapcrna
x
uacrntm
xomnannxm. Bosnnxaer
snaunmt
no
macmray
nenuypnt
xannran. Cymecrnenntm
]axropom
cranonnrcx
]nnancnponanne
ntcoxorexnonornuntx
xomnann
sa
cuer
]ononoro
ptnxa. 3ro
oxonuarentno
npnnxstnaer
nayuno-rexnonornuecxoe
pasnnrne
x
+xonomnuecxoro
nnxny;
Kommepnnonannsannx
npnxnano
nayxn
(nnmc
yopoxanne
nccneonann) neer
x
nocrenennomy
nepexoy
]ynamenrantntx
nccneonann
x
npoexrno
nornxe
(Ienom
uenonexa)
MAKH
5
Dkououuueckue Dkououuueckue
u u
1exuonoruueckue 1exuonoruueckue
uuknm uuknm: : nepuopusauun nepuopusauun
Hcfouuk:
B.Berry. Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior. L. 1991, 47-49.;
Inasten
C.R. Teopnx
onrocpounoro
rexnnxo-+xonomnuecxoro
pasnnrnx. M.Bnaap.1993,
c.96-99.;
Inasten
C.R. Bosmoxnocrn
n
orpannuennx
rexnnxo-+xonomnuecxoro
pasnnrnx
Poccnn
n
ycnonnxx
crpyxrypntx
nsmenenn
n
mnpono
+xonomnxe. www.glazev.ru
: 4 C. Perez, The direction
of innovation after the financial collapse. ICT for green growth
and global development, 2011; 5 Koporaen
A.B., Hnpent
C.B., Konpartencxne
nonnt
n
mnpono
+xonomnuecxo
nnamnxe, 2010.
Homepa B3 1 2 3 4 5
Hepno
omnnnponannx
(B.Berry)
1770-1840 1840-1890 1890-1940 1940-1990 C1990
1980-1990
2030-2040 (?)
or 1970 o
2010
Hepno
omnnnponannx (C.
Pertetz, 4)
1771-1828 1829-1874 1875-1907 1908-1970 1971-
Konpa1tencxne
nnxnm (5)
1787-1851 1851-1896 1896-1950 1950-1991 1991-
1930-1980
Hepno
omnnnponannx
(Inasten, ceuac)
1770-1830 1830-1880 1880-1930 1930-1970
Hepno
omnnnponannx
(Inasten, 1993)
1770-1830 1830-1880 1880-1930
N TV (Inasten) 1 2 3 4 5 6
Hepno omn-
nnponannx
1770-1830 rot 1830-1880 rot 1880-1930 rot 1930-1970 rot or 1970 o 2010
roon
Knmueno ]axrop Texcrnntnte
mamnnt
Hapono nnrarent,
cranxn
3nexrponnrarent,
crant
(Feccemeponcxn
cnoco)
nnrarent
nnyrpennero
cropannx,
ne]rexnmnx
Mnxpo+nexrpon-
nte xomnonenrt
Hanorexnonornn,
xnerounte
rexnonornn n
merot renno
nnxenepnn
MAKH
6
Texuonoruueckue Texuonoruueckue
yknapm yknapm: : Fnasuen Fnasuen
N TV 1 2 3 4 5
Hepno omn-
nnponannx
1770-1830 rot 1830-1880 rot 1880-1930 rot 1930-1970 rot or 1970 o 2010
roon
Bennxopnrannx,
upannnx,
Iepmannx, CBA,
Bennxopnrannx,
upannnx, Fentrnx,
Fentrnx,
Iepmannx, CBA
Bnenapnx,
Hnepnant
Hrannx,
Hnepnant,
Bnenapnx,
Hrannx, annx,
Ancrpo-Benrpnx,
Kanaa, nonnx,
Hcnannx, Poccnx,
Ancrpo-Benrpnn Bnennx
Anromonne-,
rpaxropocrpoenne,
nnernax
3nexrponnax
merannyprnx,
nponsnocrno
ronapon
nnrentnoro
nontsonannx,
npomtmnennocrt,
ntuncnnrentnax,
onrnxo-
nonoxonnax
rexnnxa,
marepnant,
oprannuecxax
xnmnx, np-no n
nepepaorxa
ne]rn
oecneuenne,
renexommynnxa-
nnn, pooro-
crpoenne, np-no n
nepepaorxa rasa,
nn]opmannonnte
ycnyrn
Crant, Hanorexnonornn,
3nexrpo+nepre-
rnxa, rxxenoe
mamnnocrpoe-nne,
neoprann-uecxax
xnmnx
monexynxpnax
nonornx
Hontmenne rn-
xocrn np-na na
ocnone ncnont-
sonannx +nexrpo-
nnrarenx cran-
aprnsannx
Hnnnnyannsannx
np-na n norpe-
nennx, nontmenne
rnxocrn np-na,
npeoonenne
np-na,
ypannsannx
+xonornuecxnx
orpannuenn no
+nepro- n marepna-
nonorpenennm
Xapax1epnc1nxn TY
Texnonornuecxne
nnept
Bennxopnrannx,
upannnx, Fentrnx
CBA, 3ananax
Enpona, nonnx
CBA, nonnx
Pasnnrte crpant Iepmancxne
rocyapcrna,
Hnepnant
CCCP, Honte
nnycrpnantnte
crpant (HHC)
HHC, Fpasnnnx,
Poccnx
po TCH Texcrnntnax
npomtmnen-nocrt,
rexcrnntnoe
mamnnocrpoenne,
ntnnanxa uyryna,
opaorxa xenesa,
crponrentcrno
xananon, noxno
nnrarent
Hapono
nnrarent,
xenesnoopox-noe
crponrent-crno,
rpancnopr,
mamnnocrpoe-nne,
napoxoo-
crpoenne,
yrontnax,
cranxonncrpymenr
antnax np-rt
uepnax
merannyprnx
3nexrporexnnuec-
xoe, rxxenoe
mamnnocrpoenne,
np-no n npoxar
crann, nnnnn
+nexrponepeau,
neoprannuecxax
xnmnx
nnrarent
nnyrpennero
Mnxpo+nexrpon-
nte xomnonenrt
uopmnpymmeecx
xpo nonoro
yxnaa
Haponte
nnrarenn,
mamnnocrpoenne
Anromonnecrpoe
nne, oprannuecxax
xnmnx, np-no n
nepepaorxa
ne]rn, nnernax
merannyprnx,
anroopoxnoe
Paapt,
crponrentcrno
rpyonponoon,
annannonnax np-
rt, np-no n
nepepaorxa rasa
Knmueno ]axrop Texcrnntnte
mamnnt
Hapono
nnrarent, cranxn
3nexrponnrarent,
crant
Hpenmymecrna
annoro rexno-
nornuecxoro
yxnaa no
cpannennm c
npemecrnymmnm
Mexannsannx n
xonnenrpa-nnx np-
na na ]apnxax
Pocr macmraon n
xonnenrpannn np-
na na ocnone
ncnontsonannx
naponoro
nnrarenx
Macconoe n
cepnnoe np-no
MAKH
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
7
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
7
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
5
4eepanunme Busnec Ynueepcumemm u xonnem Hpouue
Dkououusauun Dkououusauun
uayku uayku
u u
OKP OKP: : ponu ponu
usueca usueca
Ouuaucuponauue
HHOKP
u
neuuypume
uunec1uuuu
C1pyk1ypa
quuaucuponauun
HHOKP
n
CLA
(n 1ek. ueuax, %)
3% 3% 3%
2% 2%
4%
5%
7%
9%
21%
8%
6%
7% 7%
8% 8% 8%
14%
37%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
22%
27%
32%
37%
pacxom na HHOKP
eenuypnme
uneecmuuu / HHOKP,
%
MAKH
8
2. Maupocueuapuu
2. 2. Maupocueuapuu Maupocueuapuu
MAKH
9
Cueuapume Cueuapume
qak1opm qak1opm
pasnu1un pasnu1un
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuku akououuku
u u
pucku pucku
esonacuoc1u esonacuoc1u
nepnnunme
qax1opm
pasnn1nn:
nannune
nnn
orcyrcrnne
cymecrnennoro
rexnonornuecxoro
npoptna
n
ero
cpox;
ecrnnx
rnoantntx
xpenropon
n
saemmnxon
no
ornomennm
x
upesmepno
onrono
narpysxe;
cnoco
paspemennx
nponemt
rnoantntx
ncanancon.
n1opoc1enennme, no
naanme
qax1opm
pasnn1nn:
nosnnxnonenne
yrpos
esonacnocrn
nx
ocnonntx
cyexron;
]opmnponanne
nannonantntx
nnnonannonntx
cncrem;
nnamnxa
n
nanpannenne
npxmtx
nnocrpanntx
nnnecrnnn.
MAKH
10
Cueuapum Cueuapum
nporuos nporuos
pasnu1un pasnu1un
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuku akououuku
po po
2030 2030
r r. .
Paspaorant
na
ocnonntx
cnenapnx
pasnnrnx
rnoantno
+xonomnxn
n
onrocpouno
nepcnexrnne: nn]nxnnonnoro
noccranonnennx
n
]nnancono
pecrpyxrypnsannn, pasnnuammnecx
xapaxrepom
pasnnrnx.
Cnenapn
nn]nxnnonnoro
noccranonnennx
npenonaraer
ycxopennt
+xonomnuecxn
pocr
n
rexnonornuecxym
moepnnsannm
na
ase
nponeennx
nonnrnxn
"ementx
ener" (uro
osnauaer
ntcoxym
nepoxrnocrt
+xonomnuecxoro
xpnsnca
n
xonne
2010-x rr.).
Cnenapn
]nnancono
pecrpyxrypnsannn
npenonaraer
nponeenne
nonnrnxn
]nnanconoro
osoponnennx
n
xnmuentx
crpanax, neyme
x
samenennm
pocra
n
nnxamem
ecxrnnernn
n
nepenocy
nauana
nono
rexnonornuecxo
nonnt
na
cepenny
2020x
roon.
MAKH
11
Cueuapum Cueuapum
nporuos nporuos
pasnu1un pasnu1un
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuku akououuku
po po
2030 2030
r r. .
Xapax1epnc1nx Hnqnnnnonnoro
nocc1anonnennn
mnnanconon
pec1pyx1ypnsannn
Hponsnon1entnoc1t
1pya
n
+nepro+qqex1nnnoc1t
1exnonornuecxnn
npopmn
n
2015
1exnonornuecxnn
npopmn
n
2022
Paspemenne
nponeum
rnoantnmx
ncanancon
xpnsnc
n
2017 xpnsnc
n
2013 (uanmn) n
2022
Tpancrpannunme
nnnec1nnnn Bontme: ontme
ener, ontme
onepnn
Mentme: uentme
ener,
uentme
onepnn
Hesanncnuoc1t
HB
n
nnqnnnnonnoe
1apre1nponanne
uentme ontme
Cpenne
yponnn
roconra Bmme nnae
MAKH
12
Cueuapum Cueuapum
nporuos nporuos
pasnu1un pasnu1un
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuku akououuku
po po
2030 2030
r r. .
ycxopenne
nayuno-rexnnuecxoro
nporpecca
no
nnnxnnem
coxpanennx
emenoro
xpenra, pasnnrnx
nannonantntx
nnnonannonntx
cncrem, pocra
pacxoon
na
HHOKP, pacmnpennx
ptnxon
ntcoxorexnonornuno
npoyxnnn
no
mepe
pocra
uncnennocrn
rnoantnoro
cpenero
xnacca;
nnrencn]nxannx
mexynapono
ropronnn
n
npxmoro
nnocrpannoro
nnnecrnponannx
n
ycnonnxx
naronpnxrnoro
mnorocroponnero
pexnma
PI3H
n
omnnnponannx
moenn
nonoro
pernonannsma
n
exrentnocrn
cymecrnymmnx
n
nnont
cosanaemtx
PHO.
Ocnonnmun
nnaymnun
cnnaun
+xonounuecxoro
poc1a
n
pauxax
cnenapnn
nnqnnnnonnoro
nocc1anonnennn
yy1
nnnn1tcn:
MAKH
13
Cueuapum Cueuapum
nporuos nporuos
pasnu1un pasnu1un
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuku akououuku
po po
2030 2030
r r. .
maccnponannte
rocyapcrnennte
nnnecrnnnn
n
c]epy
HHOKP, c axnenrom
na
pasnnrne
rexnonorn
noennoro
n
nonoro
nasnauennx;
nnnecrnnnonnax
+xcnancnx
xomnann
neymnx
crpan
n
ctptente
pernont
n
crpant
c
emeno
paoue
cnno;
nocrenennt
orxo
or
moenn
nonoro
pernonannsma
n nontsy xecrxo
moenn
pernonantno
nnrerpannn, c
]opmnponannem
nneponenrpnuno
cncremt
ncnontsonannx
pecypcnoro
n
ptnounoro
norennnana
coornercrnymmnx
PHO.
Ocnonnmun
nnaymnun
cnnaun
+xonounuecxoro
poc1a
n
pauxax
cnenapnn
qnnanconon
pec1pyx1ypnsannn
yy1
nnnn1tcn:
MAKH
14
Texuonoruueckoe Texuonoruueckoe
pasnu1ue pasnu1ue: : 1peupm 1peupm
u u
pucku pucku
Axrnnnoe
ntcrpannanne
HHC
nonnoro
nnxna
n Knrae. Axnenr
na
nponsnocrnennte
n
+neprernuecxne
rexnonornn, +xonornm, HKT
xax
saen
na
yymee
nyxnonmcnax
nonecrxa
nx
n
rexnonornuecxn
pasnnrtx
crpanax
nont
naxer
rexnonorn
NBIC, nonax
+neprernxa
nnmc
conepmencrnymmncx
crapt -
nponsnocrnennte
rexnonornn, aromnax
+neprernxa
n
p.
Cnoxnncx
pasptn
]ynamenrantnax
n, n
snaunrentno
crenenn, npnxnanax
nayxa
n CBA n
uacrnuno, EC. Cymecrnennax
uacrt
npnxnano
nayxn
n
OKP, a
raxxe
ntcoxo-
n
cpenerexnonornunoro
nponsnocrna
n Knrae. uro, n
ycnonnxx
]nnancontx
e]nnnron
(nnan
Oama vs. cneprtnanne
noenntx
nporpamm, nanpnmep
FCS) oxaxercx
onee
+]]exrnnntm
pennycrpnannsannx
CBA
n
EC
nnn
rexnonornuecxn
ptnox
Knrax?
acr
nn
+]]exr
maccnponannoe
nnoxenne
pecypcon
n
nonym
rexnonornuecxym
asy
(NBIC), nnn
pesyntrar
yer
orpannuen, xax
c
]nnancnponannem
HHOKP
n
]apme. uro
+ro
acr
c
rouxn
spennx
orxptrtx
nnnonann
nx
Poccnn, Knrax, Bocrouno
Enpont?
Cymecrnyer
nn
pncx
ycnnennx
nocrenennoro
cnonsannx
or
npoptnntx
x ymy
ynyumammnx
nnnonann, nonxrntx
nsnecy? Bosmoxen
nn
nont
ptnox
]ynamenrantno
nayxn, n rom
uncne
na
npoexrntx
npnnnnnax?
Bosmoxna
nn
rexnonornsannx
rymannrapnoro
snannx
(ne
rpeyer
macmrantx
nnnecrnnn
n
oopyonanne)?
15
MAKH
CLA
CLA
Poccun
Poccun
EC
EC
Ku1a
Ku1a
Oyupaueu1anuume
uccneponauun
uuc1u1y1m
HC
Rpuknapume
HHP, npousnopc1no
nmcoko1exuonoruuuo
npopykuuu
Rpousnopc1no
cpepue-
u
uac1uuuo
nmcoko1exuonoruuuo
npopykuuu
Macconm
nmnyck
uusko-
1exuonoruuuo
npopykuuu
Rpousnopc1no
cmpun
u/unu
usm1ok
1pyponmx
pecypcon
?
? ?
Macm1a Macm1a
nmsona nmsona: : ype1 ype1
nu nu
pnn pnn
poccucko poccucko
akououuku akououuku
uec1o uec1o
n n
nppe nppe
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuku akououuku? ?
Pennycrpnannsannx
CBA
uopmnponanne
nponsnocrnenno
ast
EC
n
Bocrouno
Enpone
Moepnnsannx
xnracxo
nnycrpnn
Cuoae1 Cuoae1
nn nn
Poccnn Poccnn
sann1t sann1t
nosnnnm nosnnnm
n n
npe npe
rnoantnon rnoantnon
+xonounxn +xonounxn? ?
Hontmenne
+nepro+]]exrnnnocrn
rnoantno
+xonomnxn, ntxo
na
ptnxn
nontx
+nepronocnrene
MAKH
16
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
M
n
p
o
n
a
n
+
x
o
n
o
u
n
x
a
Kpnsnc
Osoponnenne
roc. qnnancon
Bmc1pmn
poc1
Bosnpamenne x
yc1onunnouy poc1y,
c1arnannn
1pannnonnoro T3K
Bmc1pmn poc1, pasnn1ne
nonmx o1pacnen, nonme
c1anap1m npoyxnnn
e-qax1o
?
Bepon1nmn nepexo
x cnenapnm B
M
n
p
o
n
m
e
1
e
x
n
o
n
o
r
n
n
M
n
p
o
n
a
n
+
x
o
n
o
u
n
x
a
Kpnsnc
Osoponnenne
roc. qnnancon
?
Bosononnenne poc1a,
+xcnop1
+neproceperammnx
1exnonornn
Honoe noxonenne
an1ouonnen, nasepm
Kounosn1nme
ua1epnanm,
nasepm
Hn1epne1 nemen,
poo1o1exnnxa
M
n
p
o
n
m
e
1
e
x
n
o
n
o
r
n
n
Hn1epne1 nemen,
xounosn1nme
ua1epnanm,
poo1o1exnnxa
GTL, CTL
axxyuynn1opm,
SmartGrid
SmartGrid
Hnqnnnnonnmn poc1,
oc1ynnme qnnancm
Pec1pyx1ypnsannn
onron, coxpamenne
pacxoon
Bosnpamenne x
yc1onunnouy poc1y,
c1arnannn
1pannnonnoro T3K
Hnqnnnnonnmn poc1,
oc1ynnme qnnancm
Pec1pyx1ypnsannn
onron, coxpamenne
C1arnannn (uenennmn
poc1), nepeocnamenne
T3K
C1arnannn (uenennmn
poc1), nepeocnamenne
T3K
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa, cencopm,
no1onnnno, nanonoxpm1nn
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa,
cencopm, nanonoxpm1nn,
axxyuynn1opm, SmartGrid
LTE, nocencopm, onaunme
nmuncnennn nano+nex1ponnxa
PBH, Post-IP Hn1epne1,
apecnan oc1anxa nexapc1n
Conneunan +nepre1nxa,
+nex1pouonnn, +neprnn
uopn
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa, cencopm,
no1onnnno, nanonoxpm1nn
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa,
cencopm, nanonoxpm1nn,
axxyuynn1opm, SmartGrid
LTE, nocencopm, onaunme
nmuncnennn nano+nex1ponnxa
He1pannnonnme neq1t,
ras
PBH
Hnc1me 1exnonornn
canrannn yrnn, CCS,
cnnaenne pecypcoeuxoc1n
Conneunan +nepre1nxa,
+neprnn uopn, +nex1pouonnn,
xounosn1nme ua1epnanm
!
Inoantnmn eqnnn1 cepeaennn
Inoantnmn eqnnn1 cepeaennn
!
! Cnenapnn A: a.imepuamueua ouepeemura
! Cnenapnn B: uempaouuouuie
cmapie ouepeopecvpci
MAKH
17
Repcnek1unume Repcnek1unume
uanpanneuun uanpanneuun
HTP HTP
n n
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuke akououuke, ,
1exuonoruu 1exuonoruu
n n
npouecce npouecce
nueppeuun nueppeuun
ua ua
2012 2012- -2020 2020
rr rr. .
cnnxenne
pecypcoemxocrn, paspaorxa
nerpannnonntx
mecropoxenn
yrnenoopoon, rexnonornn
cnnrernuecxnx
moropntx
ronnnn, +xonornuecxne
rexnonornn, nn]pacrpyxrypa
Beuuypume
uunec1uuuu
n
CLA
no
o1pacnnu
(unu. ponn.).
1. mopunponanne
npa
nonoro
1exnonornuecxoro
yxnaa
HKT, no-, nano- + antrepnarnnnax
+neprernxa
2. Aan1annn
c1aporo
yxnaa
MAKH
18
HKT
LTE u
on1ononokouume
ce1u
uauoanek1pouuka
u
kounepreuuun
koueuuoro
oopyponauun
onauume
1exuonoruu
u
ueu1panusauun
opao1ku
uuqopuauuu
ecnponopume
cuc1eum
ceucopon
HKT
LTE u
on1ononokouume
ce1u
uauoanek1pouuka
u
kounepreuuun
koueuuoro
oopyponauun
onauume
1exuonoruu
u
ueu1panusauun
opao1ku
uuqopuauuu
ecnponopume
cuc1eum
ceucopon
Buo1exuonoruu:
kpacume:
appecuan
pocfaeka
nekapcfe, uoceucopu,
nepcouuquuupoeauuan
repuuuua
seneume:
reuefuecku
ropuquuupoeauuue
pacfeuun
u
cenekuun
reuefueckoro
rafepuana
enme:
uofonnueo
us
ofxopoe
u
eopopocne,
uofexuonoruu
e
ueqfepoue, xuruu
Buo1exuonoruu:
kpacume:
appecuan
pocfaeka
nekapcfe, uoceucopu,
nepcouuquuupoeauuan
repuuuua
seneume:
reuefuecku
ropuquuupoeauuue
pacfeuun
u
cenekuun
reuefueckoro
rafepuana
enme:
uofonnueo
us
ofxopoe
u
eopopocne,
uofexuonoruu
e
ueqfepoue, xuruu
Hauo1exuonoruu
uauosnekfpouuka
uauocfpykfypu
e
kornosufuux
rafepunax
uauokafanusafopu
u
uauonokpufun
Hauo1exuonoruu
uauosnekfpouuka
uauocfpykfypu
e
kornosufuux
rafepunax
uauokafanusafopu
u
uauonokpufun
Anu1epua1unuan
auepre1uka
Aforuan
(PEH)
Conueuan
(qofoeonufauka
u
kouueufpauuouuan)
Befpnuan
(uaseruan
u
npupeuan)
Euofonnueo
Anu1epua1unuan
auepre1uka
Aforuan
(PEH)
Conueuan
(qofoeonufauka
u
kouueufpauuouuan)
Befpnuan
(uaseruan
u
npupeuan)
Euofonnueo
He1papuuuouume
yrnenopopopm
u
pp.
cnauueeu
ras, skcfpafnenue
u
ufyruuosuue
ueqfu
paspaofka
ueqfu
us
nnacfoe
Eaeuoecko
ceufu
GTL, CTL
ynaenueauue
CO2
(CCS)
fexuonoruu
ucforo
curauun
yrnn
He1papuuuouume
yrnenopopopm
u
pp.
cnauueeu
ras, skcfpafnenue
u
ufyruuosuue
ueqfu
paspaofka
ueqfu
us
nnacfoe
Eaeuoecko
ceufu
GTL, CTL
ynaenueauue
CO2
(CCS)
fexuonoruu
ucforo
curauun
yrnn
Repcnek1unume Repcnek1unume
uanpanneuun uanpanneuun
HTP HTP
n n
rnoanuuo rnoanuuo
akououuke akououuke, ,
1exuonoruu 1exuonoruu
n n
npouecce npouecce
nueppeuun nueppeuun
ua ua
2012 2012- -2020 2020
rr rr. .
Bpesxa 3.1. Bpeuennan oct 1exnonornuecxoro pasnn1nn (nmxo 1exnonornn na
c1anm mc1poro pacmnpennn).
2010 2015 2020 2030
LTE
Befpnuan
sueprefuka
Euo-
fonnue
o
Snekfporoun
u
Cucferu
ceucopoe
Conueuan
sueprefuka
Rpeeeufueuan
repuuuua
Skonorueckue
fexuonoruu
GTL
Rporuuneuuu
e
Hefpapuuuouuue
yrneeopopopu
(e ofcyfcfeuu
npopuea
anufepuafueuo
sueprefuku)
Peakfopu ua
ucfpux
uefpouax
Pereuepafu
euan
repuuuua
CTL
2025
19
MAKH
3. Hmo
+mo
suauum
ua
Poccuu?
3.
3.
Hmo
Hmo
+mo
+mo
suauum
suauum
ua
ua
Poccuu
Poccuu
?
?
20
MAKH
Knmuenon
pncx:
norepn
nosnnnn
n
reo+xonomnuecxom
npocrpancrne. Knra,
coxpanxx
emente
]axropt
nponsnocrna, cosaer
nce
onee
rexnonornuecxn
cnoxnym
npoyxnnm; nocrouoenponecxne
crpant, npnnnmammne
nponsnocrna
crpan
Crapo
Enpont, nonyuamr
ocryn
x
conpemenntm
rexnonornxm,
ementm
onrocpountm
]nnancontm
pecypcam
n
conpemenntm
nncrnryram
nnnonannonno
cncremt.
Orcma, nosmoxno
cnonsannx
n
neonycrnmo-nnsxne
(ox. 4% n ro) remnt
pocra
nnmc
neycrounnocrt
nnarexnoro
ananca
Hpn
+rom, napamnnanne
]nnancnponannx
rexnonornuecxoro
pasnnrnx
ne
sa
cuer
mxera. nx
+roro
pasnopor
npnxnano
nayxn
n
opasonannx
x
nsnecy
H1o
ena1t:
Hpnopnresannx
rexnonornuecxoro
pasnnrnx. Vnxsxa
rexnonornuecxoro
pasnnrnx
c
orpacnentm
(orpacnentmn
rexnonornuecxnmn
nenouxamn);
Bsanmoecrnne
rocyapcrna
n
nsneca: conmecrnax
ntpaorxa
npnopnreron
(uopcar, rexnonornuecxne
nnar]opmt); rpancmnccnx
pesyntraron
rocyapcrnenntx
meranpoexron
n
+xonomnxy;
Pannonannsannx
mexynapono
xoonepannn
co
crpanamn-rexnonornuecxnmn
nnepamn
(cm. Cnmenc), pasnnnammnmncx
crpanamn
norpenrenxmn
(no
npnmepy
Hnnn), crpanamn
Tamoxennoro
comsa.
MAKH
21
Heoxopuuoc1u
npuopu1esauuu
Pacxom
na
HHOKP
n
2009 r.
(unp. onn. no
HHC)
Kon-no
nccneona1enen
n
2009 r.
(1mc. uen.-ne1)
Pacxom
na
HHOKP
n
pacue1e
na
onoro
nccneona1enn
n
2009 r. (1mc. onn.)
* -
pauuue
no
pacxopar
ua
HHOKP
sa
2008 r.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
C
L
A
*
H
n
o
u
u
n
*
K
u
f
a
*
F
e
p
r
a
u
u
n
4
p
a
u
u
u
n
K
o
p
e
n
*
B
e
n
u
k
o
p
u
f
a
u
u
n
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
9
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
0
H
f
a
n
u
n
L
e
e
u
u
n
4
u
u
n
n
u
p
u
n
3
9
8
.
2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
C
L
A
*
F
e
p
r
a
u
u
n
L
e
e
u
u
n
H
f
a
n
u
n
H
n
o
u
u
n
*
4
p
a
u
u
u
n
K
o
p
e
n
*
4
u
u
n
n
u
p
u
n
B
e
n
u
k
o
p
u
f
a
u
u
n
K
u
f
a
*
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
9
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
K
u
f
a
C
L
A
H
n
o
u
u
n
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
9
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
0
F
e
p
r
a
u
u
n
B
e
n
u
k
o
p
u
f
a
u
u
n
K
o
p
e
n
4
p
a
u
u
u
n
H
f
a
n
u
n
L
e
e
u
u
n
4
u
u
n
n
u
p
u
n
1
5
9
2
.
4
1
4
1
2
.
6
Hontrxa
noonoro
pacmnpennx
]nnancnponannx
axe
ecnn
t
n
tna
nosmoxna
n
cnoxnnmnxcx
ycnonnxx
yer
osnauart
nnmt
pacntnenne
pecypcon
no
mnpoxomy
]ponry
nayuntx
n
rexnonornuecxnx
nanpannenn, onpeenxemtx
cnoxnnmecx
cnennannsanne
nayuntx
yupexenn.
Hontrxa
noonoro
pacmnpennx
]nnancnponannx
axe
ecnn
t
n
tna
nosmoxna
n
cnoxnnmnxcx
ycnonnxx
yer
osnauart
nnmt
pacntnenne
pecypcon
no
mnpoxomy
]ponry
nayuntx
n
rexnonornuecxnx
nanpannenn, onpeenxemtx
cnoxnnmecx
cnennannsanne
nayuntx
yupexenn.
MAKH
22
uneuua
poccucko
akououuku
Poccncxax
+xonomnxa
nyxaercx
n
ntcoxnx
5-5.5% - remnax
pocra, oecneunnammnx
cranntnocrt
mxera
(c
yuerom
npnnxrtx
connantntx
n
ooponntx
oxsarentcrn, neoxonmocrtm
moepnnsannn
nn]pacrpyxrypt), pasnnrne
nayxn
n
rexnonorn, moepnnsannm
nponsnocrnennoro
annapara;
Cymecrnymmne
xonxypenrnte
npenmymecrna, n snaunrentno mepe, ncuepnant. otua
n
+xcnopr
+nepronocnrene
crannnsnpymrcx, nent
na
+neprnm
nocrenenno
ntxoxr
na
enponecxn
yponent,
sapaornax
nnara
nontmamrcx
nnnort
o
yponnx
nocrouno-enponecxnx
crpan.
Heoxonum
ycnnnn, nonmmammne
1eunm
+xonounuecxoro
poc1a
na
1-1.5 npon. nynx1a
n
ro
He1mpexnponen1noe
re11o:
nnepnnonnte
remnt
pocra
ne
npentcxr
(npn
ymepennom
npornose
nen
na
ne]rt
nopxxa
90-95
onn. sa
app.) 4-4.5% n ro ns-sa
menennoro
pocra
ronapooopora
(+]]exr
samenennx
nnamnxn
peantno
sannart), +xcnopra
(crannnsannx
ntnosa
ne]rn) n
rocnorpenennx
Kpnsnc
nna1eanoro
ananca:
enantnannonnte
pncxn
yxe
n
2014-2015 rr. Brxrnnanne
n
narnnoamepnxancxn
nnxn
enantnannx
nn]nxnnx
xpnsnc
nnarexnoro
ananca
enantnannx, c
coornercrnymmnmn
nepcnexrnnamn
nx
nnnecrnnnonno
n
enono
axrnnnocrn
Kpnsnc
mae1a
napannte
oxsarentcrna
osnauamr
nosnnxnonenne
cranntnoro
mxernoro
e]nnnra
n
3-3.5%
BBH
Kpnsnc
nern1nunoc1n
connantnoro
nopnxa
MAKH
23
83,1
77,3
76,6
83,9
84,0
86,0
472
489
490
491
492
493
494 495
488
487
478
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
470
475
480
485
490
495
uucnennocmu nacenenuu e mpyocnoconom eospacme, mmc. uen.
uucnennocmu nacenenuu e mpyocnoconom eospacme (c yuemom nencuonno
peqopmm), mmc. uen.
omua neqmu, mnn m (npaeau mxana)
2443
2411
2397
2056
1168
798
786
700
621
475
0 500 1000 1500 2000
CLA
Ouunnupun
Opauuun
Fepuauun
Fpeuun
Beurpun
Hexun
Cnonakun
Ronuma
Poccun
Rpepnoxeuue
nepnuuumx
pecypcon Cpepueuecnuuan
sapao1uan
nna1a
n
cpepueu
no
akououuke
(2008 r., enpo)
6,5
8,2
14,8
5,7
16,9
12,7
10,2
7,3 5,4
16,4
15,8
15,5
15,2
14,4
14,0
13,6
13,2
12,2
11,2
11,3
10,8
9,7
9,1
10,9
5
7
9
11
13
15
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
0
Peaynupyemm mapuq u pmnounau ena
na anexmpoanepaum nu ecex xameaopu
nompeumene
ena npuopemenuu anexmpoanepauu nu
npommmnennocmu e Fepmanuu e 2007 a.
Ueum
ua
anek1poaueprum
(ueu1on
sa
kB1)
Xapak1epuc1uka
qak1opon
ponrocpouuoro
poc1a
MAKH
24
Oak1opm
npupoc1a
BBR
(1eunm
npupoc1a, %, uuepuuouum
cueuapu)
5.6
6.7
5.2
-3.7
1.5
2.4
2.7
3.0
-0.5
0.0
1.2
1.8
2.5
2.8
3.0 3.0 2.9
2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
3.2
3.9
2.2
-3.5
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.0
-4.9
0.9
1.5
1.5
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8 1.9
1.7
1.4 1.5 1.5
1.7
2.6
2.1
0.2
-1.5
3.1
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8 0.7
0.5
0.5 0.6 0.6
0.6
-4.6
-5.6
-3.3
6.7
-5.2
-6.3
-2.5
-1.1
-1.6
-1.9
-2.6
5.5
1.0
-0.9
-1.2
-2.6 -2.7
-2.2
-1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9
-1.2
-1.4 -1.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
3.0
2.4 2.5
1.3
2.3
0.9
2.0
1.0
1.2 1.1
0.8
0.5
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
nompenenue nacenenuu u HKOOX aocyapcmeennoe nompenenue naxonnenue ocnoenoao xanumana
axcnopm umnopm npupocm sanacoe, omuxa
unamuxa BBH
MAKH
25
206
158
121
100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
Rpousnopu1enuuoc1u
1pypa
(2011=100)
100
93
80
69
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
Dueproeukoc1u
(2011=100)
MAKH
26
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.6
8.2
1.1
1.0
1.6
3.2
1.8
4.3
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
3.2
0.4
2.5
4.0
3.1
0.2 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
Hmnopm mamun u uneecmuuu e ocnoeno
xanuman
Hmnopm nompeumenucxux moeapoe u oopom
posnuuno mopaoenu
Coo1uomeuue
puuauuku
uunop1a
u
nuy1peuuero
cnpoca
62 60 61 60 59 59 58 57 56 55 53 52 51 50 50 48 47 46 45 44
11 11
17 17 18 18 19
33 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 37
61
49
62
10 9.5 9.0 8.3 8.0 8.2 6.1 5.4 6.6
17
12 13 13 14 15 16
32 35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
0
monnueo mamunm u oopyoeanue npouue moeapm
C1pyk1ypa
akcnop1a
poccuckux
1onapon
(n ponn., ueum
2007 r.)
252
230
138
69
18
21
30 30
32
35
40
45
52
60
80
92
106
121
158
172
190
210
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
uuauuka
akcnop1a
uamuu
u
oopyponauun
(unpp. ponn.)
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Rpousnopc1no uamuu u oopyponauun
Rpousnopc1no 1paucnop1umx cpepc1n u oopyponauun
Rpousnopc1no anek1po- u on1uueckoro oopyponauun
Cenuckoe xosnc1no, oxo1a u necuoe xosnc1no
Pmononc1no u pmonopc1no
Rpousnopc1no numenmx npopyk1on
Rpousnopc1no uspenu us koxu, oynu
Tekc1unuuoe u mneuoe npousnopc1no
epenoopao1ka
Rpousnopc1no pesuuonmx u nnac1uacconmx uspenu
Xuuuueckoe npousnopc1no
Rpousnopc1no c1poua1epuanon
Me1annypruueckoe npousnopc1no u ue1annouspenu
Uennmnosuo-yuaxuoe npousnopc1no, nonurpaqun
omua ue1onnunuo-auepre1uueckux nonesumx uckonaeumx
omua 1onnunuo-auepre1uueckux nonesumx uckonaeumx
Rpousnopc1no ueq1enpopyk1on u npepumx ua1epuanon
Rpouue npousnopc1na
Ro1euuuan
poc1a
akcnop1a
o1penuumx
1onapon
(2030 r. k
2007 r., pas)
MAKH
27
Texuonoruueckoe Texuonoruueckoe
pasnu1ue pasnu1ue: : pna pna
uanpanneuun uanpanneuun
Vnennuenne
+xcnopra
+nepropecypcon.
Hontmenne
xonxypenrocnoconocrn
nepepaartnammnx
nponsnocrn.
Hocrenennoe
samemenne
n
+xcnopre
ctpo
ne]rn
n
masyra
na
ne]renpoyxrt
c
ntcoxo
oannenno
cronmocrtm.
Cosanne
nponsnocrna
xoneuno
ntcoxorexnonornuno
npoyxnnn,
cnoconoro
acopnponart
mnpoxn
xpyr
HHOKP.
uopmnponanne
nnxnnx
snenten
rexnonornuecxo
nenouxn.
Vnennuenne
+xcnopra
ntcoxorexnonornuno
npoyxnnn
n
nmnoprosamemenne
uacrn
mamnnocrponrentno
npoyxnnn.
1. Cmptenoe
nanpannenne.
Onepexammee
cnnxenne
+neproemxocrn
T3K,
merannyprnn, xnmnn, XKX.
Vcxopennax
moepnnsannx
ne]renepepaartnammnx
momnocre
c
onrnmantntm
reorpa]nuecxnm
pacnonoxennem, opnenrnponanntm
na
+xcnopr.
2. Mamnnoc1pon1entnoe
nanpannenne.
Pasnnrne
xoneuno
mamnnocrponrentno
npoyxnnn
(+nepro-, anna-, x/, anro-).
Moepnnsannx
xomnnemenrapntx
rexnonornuecxnx
nenouex
(nnrarenn, nacoct, xomnnexrymmne, cnen.
merannyprnx, xnmnx
n
p.)
28
MAKH
C
pasnn1mun
c1panaun-1exnonornuecxnun
nnepaun:
noysnonax
xoonepannx; cosanne
CH, oecneunnammnx
rexnonornuecxn
rpanc]epr
n
poccncxym
+xonomnxy
n/nnn
nponnxenne
poccncxo
npoyxnnn
na
rnoantnte
ptnxn;
cosanne
nnxnnnpnnrontx
nenrpon
n
nenrpon
rpanc]epra
rexnonorn, oecneunnammnx
nsanmnoe
ooramenne
rexnonornuecxnmn
pemennxmn; noepxxa
o]]cerntx
cenox
npn
npnoperennn
ntcoxorexnonornunoro
oopyonannx;
C
nn1encnnno
pasnnnammnuncn
c1panaun:
npnnneuenne
xannrana
pasnnnammnxcx
crpan
n
paspaorxy
poccncxo
ntcoxorexnonornuno
npoyxnnn, opnenrnponanno
na
coornercrnymmne
ptnxn; uacrnunax
noxannsannx
nponsnocrna
poccncxo
ntcoxo-
n
cpenerexnonornuno
npoyxnnn
na
coornercrnymmnx
ptnxax
c
ncnontsonannem
mecrntx
npenmymecrn
n
cronmocrn
paoue
cnnt, +nepropecypcon, nnsxo
+xonornuecxo
narpysxe;
Maxcnuantnan
nn1erpannn
nayuno-1exnonornuecxnx
n
nponsnoc1nennmx
xounnexcon
na
noc1cone1cxou
npoc1panc1ne. Vnn]nxannx
nncrnryron, perynnpymmnx
coornercrnymmne
c]ept
n
nayuno-rexnonornuecxo
nonnrnxn. Or
+xonomnuecxo
nnrerpannn
x
nonnrnuecxo
n
xyntrypno
Buemunn Buemunn
koonepauun koonepauun