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MAKH

1
Bsau+uoe

euuauue

oueocpouumx

+uouo+uuecuux

u

mexuouoeuuecuux

cueuapuee

Bsau+uoe
Bsau+uoe

euuauue
euuauue

oueocpouumx
oueocpouumx

+uouo+uuecuux
+uouo+uuecuux

u
u

mexuouoeuuecuux
mexuouoeuuecuux

cueuapuee
cueuapuee
2012
EHTP

MAKPODKOHOMHHECKOFO

AHAHH3A

H

KPATKOCPOHHOFO

HPOFHO3HPOBAHHR
MAKH
2
1. Memoouoeua: +uoeeuusauua

uayuuo-

mexuouoeuuecuoeo

npoepecca: noue+y

u

uau?

1. 1. Memoouoeua Memoouoeua: : +uoeeuusauua +uoeeuusauua

uayuuo uayuuo- -

mexuouoeuuecuoeo mexuouoeuuecuoeo

npoepecca npoepecca: : noue+y noue+y

u u

uau uau? ?
MAKH
3
Bsauuopec1nue Bsauuopec1nue

cueuapuen cueuapuen

pasnu1un pasnu1un: : o1 o1

myune1epuauckoro myune1epuauckoro

nopxopa nopxopa

k k

noc11papuuuouuouy noc11papuuuouuouy
Tpannnonnmn

(myune1epnancxnn) noxo


Hayunt

n, uacrnuno, rexnonornuecxn

nponecc


anronomnt

n

+xsorennt.
Cymecrnyer

snaunrentnt

sanac

nayuntx

snann

n, uacrnuno,
]ynamenrantntx

nnnonann

(npnmept: naponax

mamnna; cnnrernuecxoe

ropmuee; pannne

nnanmernnxn,), nnmt

uacrt

ns

xoroptx

naxonr

cnpoc

n

xonxpernt

nepno;


Hepemenntm

]axropom

xnnxercx

cnpoc

na

nnnonannn, npnnxsannt

x

]ase

+xonomnuecxoro

nnxna

n

oycnannnnaemt

pacuncrxo

ptnxa

(creative
destruction) or

ne+]]exrnnntx

nponsnocrn


Cymecrnyer

nayunax

rpannnx

(Konparten

rexnonornuecxne

yxnat

Inastena),
oycnannnnammax

npnnxsxy

ontmoro

+xonomnuecxoro

nnxna

x

rexnonornuecxomy


no

npnnnnny

xomy

yanoct

nocnontsonartcx, ror

n

noenn.
MAKH
4
Bsauuopec1nue Bsauuopec1nue

cueuapuen cueuapuen

pasnu1un pasnu1un: : o1 o1

myune1epuauckoro myune1epuauckoro

nopxopa nopxopa

k k

noc11papuuuouuouy noc11papuuuouuouy
Hoc11pannnonnmn

noxo

(o1

K. Hepec

n

antme)


Texnonornuecxn

n, no

nce

ontme

crenenn, nayunt

nponecc

xnnxercx

+norenntm

n

onpeenxercx, n

snaunrentno

crenenn, ocrynnocrtm

ementx

ener - uacrntx

n

rocyapcrnenntx


nx

rexnonornuecxoro

pasnnrnx;


Coornercrnenno, onrocpount

rexnonornuecxn

n

+xonomnuecxn

nponecct

(n

npornost)

ennoe

nenoe
Houeuy

1ax

nonyunnoct?


o

cepennt

50x rr. nayuno-rexnonornuecxn

nponecc

ecrnnrentno, tn

n

snaunrentno

crenenn

anronomen. 3anac

nayuntx

napanrm

tn

n

snaunrentno

crenenn

c]opmnponan

n

nennxoe

copoxanxrnnerne

mexy

1870 n

1915 rr.


Ho

yxe

c

1960x rr. naunnaercx

rnyoxn

cnnr

]nnancnponannx

HHOKP

or

rocyapcrna


x

uacrntm

xomnannxm. Bosnnxaer

snaunmt

no

macmray

nenuypnt

xannran. Cymecrnenntm

]axropom

cranonnrcx

]nnancnponanne

ntcoxorexnonornuntx

xomnann

sa

cuer

]ononoro

ptnxa. 3ro

oxonuarentno

npnnxstnaer

nayuno-rexnonornuecxoe

pasnnrne

x

+xonomnuecxoro

nnxny;


Kommepnnonannsannx

npnxnano

nayxn

(nnmc

yopoxanne

nccneonann) neer

x

nocrenennomy

nepexoy

]ynamenrantntx

nccneonann

x

npoexrno

nornxe

(Ienom

uenonexa)
MAKH
5
Dkououuueckue Dkououuueckue

u u

1exuonoruueckue 1exuonoruueckue

uuknm uuknm: : nepuopusauun nepuopusauun
Hcfouuk:

B.Berry. Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior. L. 1991, 47-49.;

Inasten

C.R. Teopnx

onrocpounoro

rexnnxo-+xonomnuecxoro

pasnnrnx. M.Bnaap.1993,
c.96-99.;

Inasten

C.R. Bosmoxnocrn

n

orpannuennx

rexnnxo-+xonomnuecxoro

pasnnrnx

Poccnn

n

ycnonnxx

crpyxrypntx

nsmenenn

n

mnpono

+xonomnxe. www.glazev.ru

: 4 C. Perez, The direction
of innovation after the financial collapse. ICT for green growth

and global development, 2011; 5 Koporaen

A.B., Hnpent

C.B., Konpartencxne

nonnt

n

mnpono

+xonomnuecxo

nnamnxe, 2010.
Homepa B3 1 2 3 4 5
Hepno
omnnnponannx
(B.Berry)
1770-1840 1840-1890 1890-1940 1940-1990 C1990
1980-1990
2030-2040 (?)
or 1970 o
2010
Hepno
omnnnponannx (C.
Pertetz, 4)
1771-1828 1829-1874 1875-1907 1908-1970 1971-
Konpa1tencxne
nnxnm (5)
1787-1851 1851-1896 1896-1950 1950-1991 1991-
1930-1980
Hepno
omnnnponannx
(Inasten, ceuac)
1770-1830 1830-1880 1880-1930 1930-1970
Hepno
omnnnponannx
(Inasten, 1993)
1770-1830 1830-1880 1880-1930
N TV (Inasten) 1 2 3 4 5 6
Hepno omn-
nnponannx
1770-1830 rot 1830-1880 rot 1880-1930 rot 1930-1970 rot or 1970 o 2010
roon
Knmueno ]axrop Texcrnntnte
mamnnt
Hapono nnrarent,
cranxn
3nexrponnrarent,
crant
(Feccemeponcxn
cnoco)
nnrarent
nnyrpennero
cropannx,
ne]rexnmnx
Mnxpo+nexrpon-
nte xomnonenrt
Hanorexnonornn,
xnerounte
rexnonornn n
merot renno
nnxenepnn
MAKH
6
Texuonoruueckue Texuonoruueckue

yknapm yknapm: : Fnasuen Fnasuen
N TV 1 2 3 4 5
Hepno omn-
nnponannx
1770-1830 rot 1830-1880 rot 1880-1930 rot 1930-1970 rot or 1970 o 2010
roon
Bennxopnrannx,
upannnx,
Iepmannx, CBA,
Bennxopnrannx,
upannnx, Fentrnx,
Fentrnx,
Iepmannx, CBA
Bnenapnx,
Hnepnant
Hrannx,
Hnepnant,
Bnenapnx,
Hrannx, annx,
Ancrpo-Benrpnx,
Kanaa, nonnx,
Hcnannx, Poccnx,
Ancrpo-Benrpnn Bnennx
Anromonne-,
rpaxropocrpoenne,
nnernax
3nexrponnax
merannyprnx,
nponsnocrno
ronapon
nnrentnoro
nontsonannx,
npomtmnennocrt,
ntuncnnrentnax,
onrnxo-
nonoxonnax
rexnnxa,
marepnant,
oprannuecxax
xnmnx, np-no n
nepepaorxa
ne]rn
oecneuenne,
renexommynnxa-
nnn, pooro-
crpoenne, np-no n
nepepaorxa rasa,
nn]opmannonnte
ycnyrn
Crant, Hanorexnonornn,
3nexrpo+nepre-
rnxa, rxxenoe
mamnnocrpoe-nne,
neoprann-uecxax
xnmnx
monexynxpnax
nonornx
Hontmenne rn-
xocrn np-na na
ocnone ncnont-
sonannx +nexrpo-
nnrarenx cran-
aprnsannx
Hnnnnyannsannx
np-na n norpe-
nennx, nontmenne
rnxocrn np-na,
npeoonenne
np-na,
ypannsannx
+xonornuecxnx
orpannuenn no
+nepro- n marepna-
nonorpenennm
Xapax1epnc1nxn TY
Texnonornuecxne
nnept
Bennxopnrannx,
upannnx, Fentrnx
CBA, 3ananax
Enpona, nonnx
CBA, nonnx
Pasnnrte crpant Iepmancxne
rocyapcrna,
Hnepnant
CCCP, Honte
nnycrpnantnte
crpant (HHC)
HHC, Fpasnnnx,
Poccnx
po TCH Texcrnntnax
npomtmnen-nocrt,
rexcrnntnoe
mamnnocrpoenne,
ntnnanxa uyryna,
opaorxa xenesa,
crponrentcrno
xananon, noxno
nnrarent
Hapono
nnrarent,
xenesnoopox-noe
crponrent-crno,
rpancnopr,
mamnnocrpoe-nne,
napoxoo-
crpoenne,
yrontnax,
cranxonncrpymenr
antnax np-rt
uepnax
merannyprnx
3nexrporexnnuec-
xoe, rxxenoe
mamnnocrpoenne,
np-no n npoxar
crann, nnnnn
+nexrponepeau,
neoprannuecxax
xnmnx
nnrarent
nnyrpennero
Mnxpo+nexrpon-
nte xomnonenrt
uopmnpymmeecx
xpo nonoro
yxnaa
Haponte
nnrarenn,
mamnnocrpoenne
Anromonnecrpoe
nne, oprannuecxax
xnmnx, np-no n
nepepaorxa
ne]rn, nnernax
merannyprnx,
anroopoxnoe
Paapt,
crponrentcrno
rpyonponoon,
annannonnax np-
rt, np-no n
nepepaorxa rasa
Knmueno ]axrop Texcrnntnte
mamnnt
Hapono
nnrarent, cranxn
3nexrponnrarent,
crant
Hpenmymecrna
annoro rexno-
nornuecxoro
yxnaa no
cpannennm c
npemecrnymmnm
Mexannsannx n
xonnenrpa-nnx np-
na na ]apnxax
Pocr macmraon n
xonnenrpannn np-
na na ocnone
ncnontsonannx
naponoro
nnrarenx
Macconoe n
cepnnoe np-no
MAKH
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
7
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
7
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
5
4eepanunme Busnec Ynueepcumemm u xonnem Hpouue
Dkououusauun Dkououusauun

uayku uayku

u u

OKP OKP: : ponu ponu

usueca usueca
Ouuaucuponauue

HHOKP

u

neuuypume

uunec1uuuu
C1pyk1ypa

quuaucuponauun

HHOKP

n

CLA

(n 1ek. ueuax, %)
3% 3% 3%
2% 2%
4%
5%
7%
9%
21%
8%
6%
7% 7%
8% 8% 8%
14%
37%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
-3%
2%
7%
12%
17%
22%
27%
32%
37%
pacxom na HHOKP
eenuypnme
uneecmuuu / HHOKP,
%
MAKH
8
2. Maupocueuapuu
2. 2. Maupocueuapuu Maupocueuapuu
MAKH
9
Cueuapume Cueuapume

qak1opm qak1opm

pasnu1un pasnu1un

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuku akououuku

u u

pucku pucku

esonacuoc1u esonacuoc1u


nepnnunme

qax1opm

pasnn1nn:


nannune

nnn

orcyrcrnne

cymecrnennoro

rexnonornuecxoro

npoptna

n

ero

cpox;


ecrnnx

rnoantntx

xpenropon

n

saemmnxon

no

ornomennm

x

upesmepno

onrono

narpysxe;


cnoco

paspemennx

nponemt

rnoantntx

ncanancon.


n1opoc1enennme, no

naanme

qax1opm

pasnn1nn:


nosnnxnonenne

yrpos

esonacnocrn

nx

ocnonntx

cyexron;


]opmnponanne

nannonantntx

nnnonannonntx

cncrem;


nnamnxa

n

nanpannenne

npxmtx

nnocrpanntx

nnnecrnnn.
MAKH
10
Cueuapum Cueuapum

nporuos nporuos

pasnu1un pasnu1un

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuku akououuku

po po

2030 2030

r r. .


Paspaorant

na

ocnonntx

cnenapnx

pasnnrnx

rnoantno

+xonomnxn

n

onrocpouno

nepcnexrnne: nn]nxnnonnoro

noccranonnennx

n

]nnancono

pecrpyxrypnsannn, pasnnuammnecx

xapaxrepom

pasnnrnx.


Cnenapn

nn]nxnnonnoro

noccranonnennx

npenonaraer

ycxopennt

+xonomnuecxn

pocr

n

rexnonornuecxym

moepnnsannm

na

ase

nponeennx

nonnrnxn

"ementx

ener" (uro

osnauaer

ntcoxym

nepoxrnocrt

+xonomnuecxoro

xpnsnca

n

xonne

2010-x rr.).


Cnenapn

]nnancono

pecrpyxrypnsannn

npenonaraer

nponeenne

nonnrnxn

]nnanconoro

osoponnennx

n

xnmuentx

crpanax, neyme

x

samenennm

pocra

n

nnxamem

ecxrnnernn

n

nepenocy

nauana

nono

rexnonornuecxo

nonnt

na

cepenny

2020x

roon.
MAKH
11
Cueuapum Cueuapum

nporuos nporuos

pasnu1un pasnu1un

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuku akououuku

po po

2030 2030

r r. .
Xapax1epnc1nx Hnqnnnnonnoro

nocc1anonnennn
mnnanconon

pec1pyx1ypnsannn
Hponsnon1entnoc1t

1pya

n

+nepro+qqex1nnnoc1t
1exnonornuecxnn

npopmn

n

2015
1exnonornuecxnn

npopmn

n

2022
Paspemenne

nponeum

rnoantnmx

ncanancon
xpnsnc

n

2017 xpnsnc

n

2013 (uanmn) n

2022
Tpancrpannunme

nnnec1nnnn Bontme: ontme

ener, ontme

onepnn
Mentme: uentme

ener,
uentme

onepnn
Hesanncnuoc1t

HB

n

nnqnnnnonnoe

1apre1nponanne
uentme ontme
Cpenne

yponnn

roconra Bmme nnae
MAKH
12
Cueuapum Cueuapum

nporuos nporuos

pasnu1un pasnu1un

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuku akououuku

po po

2030 2030

r r. .


ycxopenne

nayuno-rexnnuecxoro

nporpecca

no

nnnxnnem

coxpanennx

emenoro

xpenra, pasnnrnx

nannonantntx

nnnonannonntx

cncrem, pocra

pacxoon

na

HHOKP, pacmnpennx

ptnxon

ntcoxorexnonornuno

npoyxnnn

no

mepe

pocra

uncnennocrn

rnoantnoro

cpenero

xnacca;


nnrencn]nxannx

mexynapono

ropronnn

n

npxmoro

nnocrpannoro

nnnecrnponannx

n

ycnonnxx

naronpnxrnoro

mnorocroponnero

pexnma

PI3H

n

omnnnponannx

moenn

nonoro

pernonannsma

n

exrentnocrn

cymecrnymmnx

n

nnont

cosanaemtx

PHO.
Ocnonnmun

nnaymnun

cnnaun

+xonounuecxoro

poc1a

n

pauxax

cnenapnn

nnqnnnnonnoro

nocc1anonnennn

yy1

nnnn1tcn:
MAKH
13
Cueuapum Cueuapum

nporuos nporuos

pasnu1un pasnu1un

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuku akououuku

po po

2030 2030

r r. .


maccnponannte

rocyapcrnennte

nnnecrnnnn

n

c]epy

HHOKP, c axnenrom

na

pasnnrne

rexnonorn

noennoro

n

nonoro

nasnauennx;


nnnecrnnnonnax

+xcnancnx

xomnann

neymnx

crpan

n

ctptente

pernont

n

crpant

c

emeno

paoue

cnno;


nocrenennt

orxo

or

moenn

nonoro

pernonannsma

n nontsy xecrxo

moenn

pernonantno

nnrerpannn, c

]opmnponannem

nneponenrpnuno

cncremt

ncnontsonannx

pecypcnoro

n

ptnounoro

norennnana

coornercrnymmnx

PHO.
Ocnonnmun

nnaymnun

cnnaun

+xonounuecxoro

poc1a

n

pauxax

cnenapnn

qnnanconon

pec1pyx1ypnsannn

yy1

nnnn1tcn:
MAKH
14
Texuonoruueckoe Texuonoruueckoe

pasnu1ue pasnu1ue: : 1peupm 1peupm

u u

pucku pucku


Axrnnnoe

ntcrpannanne

HHC

nonnoro

nnxna

n Knrae. Axnenr

na

nponsnocrnennte

n

+neprernuecxne

rexnonornn, +xonornm, HKT


xax

saen

na

yymee


nyxnonmcnax

nonecrxa

nx

n

rexnonornuecxn

pasnnrtx

crpanax

nont

naxer

rexnonorn


NBIC, nonax

+neprernxa


nnmc

conepmencrnymmncx

crapt -

nponsnocrnennte

rexnonornn, aromnax

+neprernxa

n

p.


Cnoxnncx

pasptn


]ynamenrantnax

n, n

snaunrentno

crenenn, npnxnanax

nayxa


n CBA n

uacrnuno, EC. Cymecrnennax

uacrt

npnxnano

nayxn

n

OKP, a

raxxe

ntcoxo-

n

cpenerexnonornunoro

nponsnocrna


n Knrae. uro, n

ycnonnxx

]nnancontx

e]nnnron

(nnan

Oama vs. cneprtnanne

noenntx

nporpamm, nanpnmep

FCS) oxaxercx

onee

+]]exrnnntm


pennycrpnannsannx

CBA

n

EC

nnn

rexnonornuecxn

ptnox

Knrax?


acr

nn

+]]exr

maccnponannoe

nnoxenne

pecypcon

n

nonym

rexnonornuecxym

asy

(NBIC), nnn

pesyntrar

yer

orpannuen, xax

c

]nnancnponannem

HHOKP

n

]apme. uro

+ro

acr

c

rouxn

spennx

orxptrtx

nnnonann

nx

Poccnn, Knrax, Bocrouno

Enpont?


Cymecrnyer

nn

pncx

ycnnennx

nocrenennoro

cnonsannx

or

npoptnntx


x ymy

ynyumammnx

nnnonann, nonxrntx

nsnecy? Bosmoxen

nn

nont

ptnox

]ynamenrantno

nayxn, n rom

uncne


na

npoexrntx

npnnnnnax?


Bosmoxna

nn

rexnonornsannx

rymannrapnoro

snannx

(ne

rpeyer

macmrantx

nnnecrnnn

n

oopyonanne)?
15
MAKH
CLA
CLA
Poccun
Poccun
EC
EC
Ku1a
Ku1a
Oyupaueu1anuume

uccneponauun

uuc1u1y1m

HC
Rpuknapume

HHP, npousnopc1no

nmcoko1exuonoruuuo

npopykuuu
Rpousnopc1no

cpepue-

u

uac1uuuo

nmcoko1exuonoruuuo

npopykuuu
Macconm

nmnyck

uusko-

1exuonoruuuo

npopykuuu
Rpousnopc1no

cmpun

u/unu

usm1ok

1pyponmx

pecypcon
?
? ?
Macm1a Macm1a

nmsona nmsona: : ype1 ype1

nu nu

pnn pnn

poccucko poccucko

akououuku akououuku

uec1o uec1o

n n

nppe nppe

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuku akououuku? ?
Pennycrpnannsannx

CBA
uopmnponanne

nponsnocrnenno

ast

EC

n

Bocrouno

Enpone
Moepnnsannx

xnracxo

nnycrpnn
Cuoae1 Cuoae1

nn nn

Poccnn Poccnn

sann1t sann1t

nosnnnm nosnnnm

n n

npe npe

rnoantnon rnoantnon

+xonounxn +xonounxn? ?
Hontmenne

+nepro+]]exrnnnocrn

rnoantno

+xonomnxn, ntxo

na

ptnxn

nontx

+nepronocnrene
MAKH
16

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
M
n
p
o
n
a
n

+
x
o
n
o
u
n
x
a

Kpnsnc
Osoponnenne
roc. qnnancon
Bmc1pmn
poc1
Bosnpamenne x
yc1onunnouy poc1y,
c1arnannn
1pannnonnoro T3K
Bmc1pmn poc1, pasnn1ne
nonmx o1pacnen, nonme
c1anap1m npoyxnnn
e-qax1o
?
Bepon1nmn nepexo
x cnenapnm B
M
n
p
o
n
m
e

1
e
x
n
o
n
o
r
n
n


M
n
p
o
n
a
n

+
x
o
n
o
u
n
x
a
Kpnsnc
Osoponnenne
roc. qnnancon
?
Bosononnenne poc1a,
+xcnop1
+neproceperammnx
1exnonornn
Honoe noxonenne
an1ouonnen, nasepm
Kounosn1nme
ua1epnanm,
nasepm
Hn1epne1 nemen,
poo1o1exnnxa
M
n
p
o
n
m
e

1
e
x
n
o
n
o
r
n
n


Hn1epne1 nemen,
xounosn1nme
ua1epnanm,
poo1o1exnnxa
GTL, CTL
axxyuynn1opm,
SmartGrid
SmartGrid
Hnqnnnnonnmn poc1,
oc1ynnme qnnancm
Pec1pyx1ypnsannn
onron, coxpamenne
pacxoon
Bosnpamenne x
yc1onunnouy poc1y,
c1arnannn
1pannnonnoro T3K
Hnqnnnnonnmn poc1,
oc1ynnme qnnancm
Pec1pyx1ypnsannn
onron, coxpamenne
C1arnannn (uenennmn
poc1), nepeocnamenne
T3K
C1arnannn (uenennmn
poc1), nepeocnamenne
T3K
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa, cencopm,
no1onnnno, nanonoxpm1nn
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa,
cencopm, nanonoxpm1nn,
axxyuynn1opm, SmartGrid
LTE, nocencopm, onaunme
nmuncnennn nano+nex1ponnxa
PBH, Post-IP Hn1epne1,
apecnan oc1anxa nexapc1n
Conneunan +nepre1nxa,
+nex1pouonnn, +neprnn
uopn
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa, cencopm,
no1onnnno, nanonoxpm1nn
Be1pnnan +nepre1nxa,
cencopm, nanonoxpm1nn,
axxyuynn1opm, SmartGrid
LTE, nocencopm, onaunme
nmuncnennn nano+nex1ponnxa
He1pannnonnme neq1t,
ras
PBH
Hnc1me 1exnonornn
canrannn yrnn, CCS,
cnnaenne pecypcoeuxoc1n
Conneunan +nepre1nxa,
+neprnn uopn, +nex1pouonnn,
xounosn1nme ua1epnanm
!
Inoantnmn eqnnn1 cepeaennn
Inoantnmn eqnnn1 cepeaennn
!
! Cnenapnn A: a.imepuamueua ouepeemura
! Cnenapnn B: uempaouuouuie
cmapie ouepeopecvpci
MAKH
17
Repcnek1unume Repcnek1unume

uanpanneuun uanpanneuun

HTP HTP

n n

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuke akououuke, ,
1exuonoruu 1exuonoruu

n n

npouecce npouecce

nueppeuun nueppeuun

ua ua

2012 2012- -2020 2020

rr rr. .
cnnxenne

pecypcoemxocrn, paspaorxa

nerpannnonntx

mecropoxenn

yrnenoopoon, rexnonornn

cnnrernuecxnx

moropntx

ronnnn, +xonornuecxne

rexnonornn, nn]pacrpyxrypa
Beuuypume

uunec1uuuu

n

CLA

no

o1pacnnu

(unu. ponn.).
1. mopunponanne

npa

nonoro

1exnonornuecxoro

yxnaa
HKT, no-, nano- + antrepnarnnnax

+neprernxa
2. Aan1annn

c1aporo

yxnaa
MAKH
18
HKT


LTE u

on1ononokouume

ce1u


uauoanek1pouuka

u

kounepreuuun

koueuuoro

oopyponauun


onauume

1exuonoruu

u

ueu1panusauun

opao1ku

uuqopuauuu


ecnponopume

cuc1eum

ceucopon
HKT


LTE u

on1ononokouume

ce1u


uauoanek1pouuka

u

kounepreuuun

koueuuoro

oopyponauun


onauume

1exuonoruu

u

ueu1panusauun

opao1ku

uuqopuauuu


ecnponopume

cuc1eum

ceucopon
Buo1exuonoruu:


kpacume:

appecuan

pocfaeka

nekapcfe, uoceucopu,
nepcouuquuupoeauuan

repuuuua


seneume:

reuefuecku

ropuquuupoeauuue

pacfeuun

u

cenekuun

reuefueckoro

rafepuana


enme:

uofonnueo

us

ofxopoe

u

eopopocne,
uofexuonoruu

e

ueqfepoue, xuruu

Buo1exuonoruu:


kpacume:

appecuan

pocfaeka

nekapcfe, uoceucopu,
nepcouuquuupoeauuan

repuuuua


seneume:

reuefuecku

ropuquuupoeauuue

pacfeuun

u

cenekuun

reuefueckoro

rafepuana


enme:

uofonnueo

us

ofxopoe

u

eopopocne,
uofexuonoruu

e

ueqfepoue, xuruu
Hauo1exuonoruu


uauosnekfpouuka


uauocfpykfypu

e

kornosufuux

rafepunax


uauokafanusafopu

u

uauonokpufun
Hauo1exuonoruu


uauosnekfpouuka


uauocfpykfypu

e

kornosufuux

rafepunax


uauokafanusafopu

u

uauonokpufun
Anu1epua1unuan

auepre1uka


Aforuan

(PEH)


Conueuan

(qofoeonufauka

u

kouueufpauuouuan)


Befpnuan

(uaseruan

u

npupeuan)


Euofonnueo
Anu1epua1unuan

auepre1uka


Aforuan

(PEH)


Conueuan

(qofoeonufauka

u

kouueufpauuouuan)


Befpnuan

(uaseruan

u

npupeuan)


Euofonnueo
He1papuuuouume

yrnenopopopm

u

pp.


cnauueeu

ras, skcfpafnenue

u

ufyruuosuue

ueqfu


paspaofka

ueqfu

us

nnacfoe

Eaeuoecko

ceufu
GTL, CTL


ynaenueauue

CO2

(CCS)


fexuonoruu

ucforo

curauun

yrnn
He1papuuuouume

yrnenopopopm

u

pp.


cnauueeu

ras, skcfpafnenue

u

ufyruuosuue

ueqfu


paspaofka

ueqfu

us

nnacfoe

Eaeuoecko

ceufu


GTL, CTL


ynaenueauue

CO2

(CCS)


fexuonoruu

ucforo

curauun

yrnn
Repcnek1unume Repcnek1unume

uanpanneuun uanpanneuun

HTP HTP

n n

rnoanuuo rnoanuuo

akououuke akououuke, ,
1exuonoruu 1exuonoruu

n n

npouecce npouecce

nueppeuun nueppeuun

ua ua

2012 2012- -2020 2020

rr rr. .
Bpesxa 3.1. Bpeuennan oct 1exnonornuecxoro pasnn1nn (nmxo 1exnonornn na
c1anm mc1poro pacmnpennn).









2010 2015 2020 2030
LTE
Befpnuan
sueprefuka
Euo-
fonnue
o
Snekfporoun
u
Cucferu
ceucopoe
Conueuan
sueprefuka
Rpeeeufueuan
repuuuua
Skonorueckue
fexuonoruu
GTL
Rporuuneuuu
e
Hefpapuuuouuue
yrneeopopopu
(e ofcyfcfeuu
npopuea
anufepuafueuo
sueprefuku)
Peakfopu ua
ucfpux
uefpouax
Pereuepafu
euan
repuuuua
CTL
2025
19
MAKH
3. Hmo

+mo

suauum

ua

Poccuu?
3.
3.
Hmo
Hmo

+mo
+mo

suauum
suauum

ua
ua

Poccuu
Poccuu
?
?
20
MAKH
Knmuenon

pncx:

norepn

nosnnnn

n

reo+xonomnuecxom

npocrpancrne. Knra,
coxpanxx

emente

]axropt

nponsnocrna, cosaer

nce

onee

rexnonornuecxn

cnoxnym

npoyxnnm; nocrouoenponecxne

crpant, npnnnmammne

nponsnocrna

crpan

Crapo

Enpont, nonyuamr

ocryn

x

conpemenntm

rexnonornxm,
ementm

onrocpountm

]nnancontm

pecypcam

n

conpemenntm

nncrnryram

nnnonannonno

cncremt.


Orcma, nosmoxno

cnonsannx

n

neonycrnmo-nnsxne

(ox. 4% n ro) remnt

pocra

nnmc

neycrounnocrt

nnarexnoro

ananca


Hpn

+rom, napamnnanne

]nnancnponannx

rexnonornuecxoro

pasnnrnx


ne

sa

cuer

mxera. nx

+roro


pasnopor

npnxnano

nayxn

n

opasonannx

x

nsnecy
H1o

ena1t:


Hpnopnresannx

rexnonornuecxoro

pasnnrnx. Vnxsxa

rexnonornuecxoro

pasnnrnx

c

orpacnentm

(orpacnentmn

rexnonornuecxnmn

nenouxamn);


Bsanmoecrnne

rocyapcrna

n

nsneca: conmecrnax

ntpaorxa

npnopnreron

(uopcar, rexnonornuecxne

nnar]opmt); rpancmnccnx

pesyntraron

rocyapcrnenntx

meranpoexron

n

+xonomnxy;


Pannonannsannx

mexynapono

xoonepannn

co

crpanamn-rexnonornuecxnmn

nnepamn

(cm. Cnmenc), pasnnnammnmncx

crpanamn


norpenrenxmn

(no

npnmepy

Hnnn), crpanamn

Tamoxennoro

comsa.
MAKH
21
Heoxopuuoc1u

npuopu1esauuu
Pacxom

na

HHOKP

n

2009 r.
(unp. onn. no

HHC)
Kon-no

nccneona1enen

n

2009 r.
(1mc. uen.-ne1)
Pacxom

na

HHOKP

n

pacue1e

na

onoro

nccneona1enn

n

2009 r. (1mc. onn.)
* -

pauuue

no

pacxopar

ua

HHOKP

sa

2008 r.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
C
L
A
*
H
n
o
u
u
n
*
K
u
f
a

*
F
e
p
r
a
u
u
n
4
p
a
u
u
u
n
K
o
p
e
n
*
B
e
n
u
k
o

p
u
f
a
u
u
n
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
9
P
o
c
c
u
n
2
0
0
0
H
f
a
n
u
n
L
e
e
u
u
n
4
u
u
n
n
u
p
u
n
3
9
8
.
2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
C
L
A
*
F
e
p
r
a
u
u
n
L
e
e
u
u
n
H
f
a
n
u
n
H
n
o
u
u
n
*
4
p
a
u
u
u
n
K
o
p
e
n
*
4
u
u
n
n
u
p
u
n
B
e
n
u
k
o

p
u
f
a
u
u
n
K
u
f
a

*
P
o
c
c
u
n

2
0
0
9
P
o
c
c
u
n

2
0
0
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
K
u
f
a

C
L
A
H
n
o
u
u
n
P
o
c
c
u
n

2
0
0
9
P
o
c
c
u
n

2
0
0
0
F
e
p
r
a
u
u
n
B
e
n
u
k
o

p
u
f
a
u
u
n
K
o
p
e
n
4
p
a
u
u
u
n
H
f
a
n
u
n
L
e
e
u
u
n
4
u
u
n
n
u
p
u
n
1
5
9
2
.
4
1
4
1
2
.
6
Hontrxa

noonoro

pacmnpennx

]nnancnponannx


axe

ecnn

t

n

tna

nosmoxna


n

cnoxnnmnxcx

ycnonnxx

yer

osnauart

nnmt

pacntnenne

pecypcon

no

mnpoxomy

]ponry

nayuntx

n

rexnonornuecxnx

nanpannenn, onpeenxemtx

cnoxnnmecx

cnennannsanne

nayuntx

yupexenn.

Hontrxa

noonoro

pacmnpennx

]nnancnponannx


axe

ecnn

t

n

tna

nosmoxna


n

cnoxnnmnxcx

ycnonnxx

yer
osnauart

nnmt

pacntnenne

pecypcon

no

mnpoxomy

]ponry

nayuntx

n

rexnonornuecxnx

nanpannenn, onpeenxemtx

cnoxnnmecx

cnennannsanne

nayuntx

yupexenn.
MAKH
22
uneuua

poccucko

akououuku
Poccncxax

+xonomnxa

nyxaercx

n

ntcoxnx

5-5.5% - remnax

pocra, oecneunnammnx

cranntnocrt

mxera

(c

yuerom

npnnxrtx

connantntx

n

ooponntx

oxsarentcrn, neoxonmocrtm

moepnnsannn

nn]pacrpyxrypt), pasnnrne

nayxn

n

rexnonorn, moepnnsannm

nponsnocrnennoro

annapara;
Cymecrnymmne

xonxypenrnte

npenmymecrna, n snaunrentno mepe, ncuepnant. otua

n

+xcnopr

+nepronocnrene

crannnsnpymrcx, nent

na

+neprnm

nocrenenno

ntxoxr

na

enponecxn

yponent,
sapaornax

nnara

nontmamrcx

nnnort

o

yponnx

nocrouno-enponecxnx

crpan.
Heoxonum

ycnnnn, nonmmammne

1eunm

+xonounuecxoro

poc1a

na

1-1.5 npon. nynx1a

n

ro
He1mpexnponen1noe

re11o:


nnepnnonnte

remnt

pocra

ne

npentcxr

(npn

ymepennom

npornose

nen

na

ne]rt


nopxxa

90-95
onn. sa

app.) 4-4.5% n ro ns-sa

menennoro

pocra

ronapooopora

(+]]exr

samenennx

nnamnxn

peantno

sannart), +xcnopra

(crannnsannx

ntnosa

ne]rn) n

rocnorpenennx
Kpnsnc

nna1eanoro

ananca:


enantnannonnte

pncxn

yxe

n

2014-2015 rr. Brxrnnanne

n

narnnoamepnxancxn

nnxn

enantnannx


nn]nxnnx


xpnsnc

nnarexnoro

ananca


enantnannx, c

coornercrnymmnmn

nepcnexrnnamn

nx

nnnecrnnnonno

n

enono

axrnnnocrn
Kpnsnc

mae1a


napannte

oxsarentcrna

osnauamr

nosnnxnonenne

cranntnoro

mxernoro

e]nnnra

n

3-3.5%
BBH
Kpnsnc

nern1nunoc1n

connantnoro

nopnxa
MAKH
23
83,1
77,3
76,6
83,9
84,0
86,0
472
489
490
491
492
493
494 495
488
487
478
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
470
475
480
485
490
495
uucnennocmu nacenenuu e mpyocnoconom eospacme, mmc. uen.
uucnennocmu nacenenuu e mpyocnoconom eospacme (c yuemom nencuonno
peqopmm), mmc. uen.
omua neqmu, mnn m (npaeau mxana)
2443
2411
2397
2056
1168
798
786
700
621
475
0 500 1000 1500 2000
CLA
Ouunnupun
Opauuun
Fepuauun
Fpeuun
Beurpun
Hexun
Cnonakun
Ronuma
Poccun
Rpepnoxeuue

nepnuuumx

pecypcon Cpepueuecnuuan

sapao1uan

nna1a

n

cpepueu

no

akououuke

(2008 r., enpo)
6,5
8,2
14,8
5,7
16,9
12,7
10,2
7,3 5,4
16,4
15,8
15,5
15,2
14,4
14,0
13,6
13,2
12,2
11,2
11,3
10,8
9,7
9,1
10,9
5
7
9
11
13
15
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
0
Peaynupyemm mapuq u pmnounau ena
na anexmpoanepaum nu ecex xameaopu
nompeumene
ena npuopemenuu anexmpoanepauu nu
npommmnennocmu e Fepmanuu e 2007 a.
Ueum

ua

anek1poaueprum

(ueu1on

sa

kB1)
Xapak1epuc1uka

qak1opon

ponrocpouuoro

poc1a
MAKH
24
Oak1opm

npupoc1a

BBR
(1eunm

npupoc1a, %, uuepuuouum

cueuapu)
5.6
6.7
5.2
-3.7
1.5
2.4
2.7
3.0
-0.5
0.0
1.2
1.8
2.5
2.8
3.0 3.0 2.9
2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
1.4
0.6
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
3.2
3.9
2.2
-3.5
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.0
-4.9
0.9
1.5
1.5
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8 1.9
1.7
1.4 1.5 1.5
1.7
2.6
2.1
0.2
-1.5
3.1
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8 0.7
0.5
0.5 0.6 0.6
0.6
-4.6
-5.6
-3.3
6.7
-5.2
-6.3
-2.5
-1.1
-1.6
-1.9
-2.6
5.5
1.0
-0.9
-1.2
-2.6 -2.7
-2.2
-1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9
-1.2
-1.4 -1.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1 0.1
0.1
0.1
3.0
2.4 2.5
1.3
2.3
0.9
2.0
1.0
1.2 1.1
0.8
0.5
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
nompenenue nacenenuu u HKOOX aocyapcmeennoe nompenenue naxonnenue ocnoenoao xanumana
axcnopm umnopm npupocm sanacoe, omuxa
unamuxa BBH
MAKH
25
206
158
121
100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
Rpousnopu1enuuoc1u

1pypa

(2011=100)
100
93
80
69
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
Dueproeukoc1u

(2011=100)
MAKH
26
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.6
8.2
1.1
1.0
1.6
3.2
1.8
4.3
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
3.2
0.4
2.5
4.0
3.1
0.2 0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
Hmnopm mamun u uneecmuuu e ocnoeno
xanuman
Hmnopm nompeumenucxux moeapoe u oopom
posnuuno mopaoenu
Coo1uomeuue

puuauuku

uunop1a

u

nuy1peuuero

cnpoca
62 60 61 60 59 59 58 57 56 55 53 52 51 50 50 48 47 46 45 44
11 11
17 17 18 18 19
33 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 37
61
49
62
10 9.5 9.0 8.3 8.0 8.2 6.1 5.4 6.6
17
12 13 13 14 15 16
32 35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
0
monnueo mamunm u oopyoeanue npouue moeapm
C1pyk1ypa

akcnop1a

poccuckux

1onapon

(n ponn., ueum

2007 r.)
252
230
138
69
18
21
30 30
32
35
40
45
52
60
80
92
106
121
158
172
190
210
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
uuauuka

akcnop1a

uamuu

u

oopyponauun

(unpp. ponn.)
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Rpousnopc1no uamuu u oopyponauun
Rpousnopc1no 1paucnop1umx cpepc1n u oopyponauun
Rpousnopc1no anek1po- u on1uueckoro oopyponauun
Cenuckoe xosnc1no, oxo1a u necuoe xosnc1no
Pmononc1no u pmonopc1no
Rpousnopc1no numenmx npopyk1on
Rpousnopc1no uspenu us koxu, oynu
Tekc1unuuoe u mneuoe npousnopc1no
epenoopao1ka
Rpousnopc1no pesuuonmx u nnac1uacconmx uspenu
Xuuuueckoe npousnopc1no
Rpousnopc1no c1poua1epuanon
Me1annypruueckoe npousnopc1no u ue1annouspenu
Uennmnosuo-yuaxuoe npousnopc1no, nonurpaqun
omua ue1onnunuo-auepre1uueckux nonesumx uckonaeumx
omua 1onnunuo-auepre1uueckux nonesumx uckonaeumx
Rpousnopc1no ueq1enpopyk1on u npepumx ua1epuanon
Rpouue npousnopc1na
Ro1euuuan

poc1a

akcnop1a

o1penuumx

1onapon

(2030 r. k

2007 r., pas)
MAKH
27
Texuonoruueckoe Texuonoruueckoe

pasnu1ue pasnu1ue: : pna pna

uanpanneuun uanpanneuun
Vnennuenne

+xcnopra

+nepropecypcon.
Hontmenne

xonxypenrocnoconocrn

nepepaartnammnx

nponsnocrn.
Hocrenennoe

samemenne

n

+xcnopre

ctpo

ne]rn

n

masyra

na

ne]renpoyxrt

c

ntcoxo

oannenno

cronmocrtm.
Cosanne

nponsnocrna

xoneuno

ntcoxorexnonornuno

npoyxnnn,
cnoconoro

acopnponart

mnpoxn

xpyr

HHOKP.
uopmnponanne

nnxnnx

snenten

rexnonornuecxo

nenouxn.
Vnennuenne

+xcnopra

ntcoxorexnonornuno

npoyxnnn

n

nmnoprosamemenne

uacrn

mamnnocrponrentno

npoyxnnn.
1. Cmptenoe

nanpannenne.
Onepexammee

cnnxenne

+neproemxocrn

T3K,
merannyprnn, xnmnn, XKX.
Vcxopennax

moepnnsannx

ne]renepepaartnammnx

momnocre

c

onrnmantntm

reorpa]nuecxnm

pacnonoxennem, opnenrnponanntm

na

+xcnopr.
2. Mamnnoc1pon1entnoe

nanpannenne.
Pasnnrne

xoneuno

mamnnocrponrentno

npoyxnnn

(+nepro-, anna-, x/, anro-).
Moepnnsannx

xomnnemenrapntx

rexnonornuecxnx

nenouex

(nnrarenn, nacoct, xomnnexrymmne, cnen.
merannyprnx, xnmnx

n

p.)
28
MAKH
C

pasnn1mun

c1panaun-1exnonornuecxnun

nnepaun:


noysnonax

xoonepannx; cosanne

CH, oecneunnammnx

rexnonornuecxn

rpanc]epr

n

poccncxym

+xonomnxy

n/nnn

nponnxenne

poccncxo

npoyxnnn

na

rnoantnte

ptnxn;
cosanne

nnxnnnpnnrontx

nenrpon

n

nenrpon

rpanc]epra

rexnonorn, oecneunnammnx

nsanmnoe

ooramenne

rexnonornuecxnmn

pemennxmn; noepxxa

o]]cerntx

cenox

npn

npnoperennn

ntcoxorexnonornunoro

oopyonannx;
C

nn1encnnno

pasnnnammnuncn

c1panaun:


npnnneuenne

xannrana

pasnnnammnxcx

crpan

n

paspaorxy

poccncxo

ntcoxorexnonornuno

npoyxnnn, opnenrnponanno

na

coornercrnymmne

ptnxn; uacrnunax

noxannsannx

nponsnocrna

poccncxo

ntcoxo-

n

cpenerexnonornuno

npoyxnnn

na

coornercrnymmnx

ptnxax

c

ncnontsonannem

mecrntx

npenmymecrn

n

cronmocrn

paoue

cnnt, +nepropecypcon, nnsxo

+xonornuecxo

narpysxe;
Maxcnuantnan

nn1erpannn

nayuno-1exnonornuecxnx

n

nponsnoc1nennmx

xounnexcon

na

noc1cone1cxou

npoc1panc1ne. Vnn]nxannx

nncrnryron, perynnpymmnx

coornercrnymmne

c]ept

n

nayuno-rexnonornuecxo

nonnrnxn. Or

+xonomnuecxo

nnrerpannn


x

nonnrnuecxo

n

xyntrypno
Buemunn Buemunn

koonepauun koonepauun

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