LOAD FORECAST

Joe McGarry - EirGrid David Beasant - SONI

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Why?

EirGrid - Demand is Variable
System Demand (08 Apr 08) Tues System Demand (15 Aug 07) Wed
4800

Spring/Autumn

4800

Summer

4300

4300

3800 MWs MWs 3300

3800

3300

2800

2800

2300

2300

1800 00:00 06:00 12:00 Time 18:00

1800 00:00 06:00 12:00 Time 18:00

System Demand (18 Dec 07) Tues

System Demand (06 Aug 07) Sun

4800

Winter

4800

Summer/Sunday

4300

4300

3800 MWs MWs 3300

3800

3300

2800

2800

2300

2300

1800 00:00 06:00 12:00 Time 18:00

1800 00:00 06:00 12:00 Time 18:00

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Why?

SONI - Demand is Variable
Spring/Autum n De m and Curve s 1800 Tue 08/04/2008
Sum m e r We e k day De m and Curve 1800 Wed 15/08/2007

1600

1600

1400

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000

800

800

600

600

400 00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

400 00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

Winte r Pe ak De m and Curve 1800

Tue 18/12/2007

Sum m e rSunday De m and Curve 1800

Sun 05/08/2007

1600

1600

1400

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000

800

800

600

600

400 00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

400 00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Why?

Demand is Seasonal

EirGrid - Weekly Peaks

2007 5500 All time system peak: 18 Dec 2007 @ 1745 5000
1600 1800

SONI - Weekly Peaks

2007

All time system peak: 18 Dec 2007 @ 1745

4500
1400

4000

1200

3500

3000 Jan

Apr

Jul

Sep

1000 Jan

Apr

Jul

Sep

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Introduction 1 of 2

Load Forecast Model Manual Forecasts & Adjustments Load Forecast Output
Sanity Checked

Load Forecast Procedure

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Introduction 2 of 2

ALL IRELAND LOAD FORECASTING
EIRGRID
AREVA Load Forecast Tool AREVA Energy Management System (EMS) World Wide. Users Group Annual Meetings User Development Input

SONI
Present - Manual Load Forecasting AREVA - Future

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Model

REGRESSION METHOD Uses Historical Data

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast - INPUT

Load Data - Historical
Updated every Half Hour (EMS)

Weather Data (Supplied by Met Eireann)

Actual Weather Data - EMS Updated hourly Forecast Updated every 6 Hours 14 Days 6 /12 Hour Time Slots EMS extrapolates the half hour time slots.

Operator Input
Assign Day Type Where Necessary Bank Holiday Sunday Tuesday Monday Exclude Abnormal Days From Statistics From Model Check/Replace Missing Data

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Manual Forecasts 1 of 5

Abnormal Days and Special Events
Load Shape Forecast Tool Use Reference Historical Day Shape Scale Reference Day using new Max. and Min. Apply to Forecast Day. Forecasts for Bank Holidays, Easter and Christmas Holiday Period.

Time Changes
Summer & Winter Use Load Shape Forecast Tool Dawn & Dusk time.

Load Scaling Tool

Used to adjust Load Forecast Can be applied to a full day Can be applied to segments of day

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Manual Forecasts 2 of 5

Bank Holiday Periods
4500
4500

4000

4000

3500

3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

0000 0200 0400 0600 0800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
Previous Sunday XMAS Day St. Stephens Day

0000 0200 0400 0600 0800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
XMAS Day St. Stephens Day Next Sunday Day

Monday

Tuesday 4000

5000

4500
3500

4000
3000

3500

3000
2500

2500
2000

2000

1500

1500

00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00
Normal

12:00
Holiday

15:00
Sunday

18:00

21:00

00:00

03:00

06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

Normal

Holiday

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Manual Forecasts 3 of 5

ABNORMAL DATES
Name
New Years Day Next Day St. Patricks Day Next Day Easter Friday Easter Monday Next Day May Bank Holiday *

Date
01-Jan-2009 02-Jan-2009 17-Mar-2009 18-Mar-2008 10-Apr-2009 13-Apr-2009 14-Apr-2009 05-May-2008 Thursday Friday Tuesday Wednesday Friday Monday Tuesday Monday

Day

Assigned Day
Sunday Friday Sunday Monday Saturday Sunday Monday Sunday

Next Day
July Bank Holiday July Bank Holiday Monday Christmas Period Day 1 Christmas Eve Christmas Day St. Stephens Day Christmas Period Day 5 Christmas Period Day 6 Christmas Period Day 7

06-May-2008
12-Jul-2008 14-Jul-2008 23-Dec-2008 24-Dec-2008 25-Dec-2008 26-Dec-2008 27-Dec-2008 28-Dec-2008 29-Dec-2008

Tuesday
Saturday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday

Monday
Sunday Sunday Saturday Sunday Sunday Sunday Sunday Saturday Saturday

* June, August and October Bank Holidays similar.

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Manual Forecasts 4 of 5

SPECIAL EVENTS

2100 1900

Demand down 459MW ie 25%

4500

Demand down 366MW ie 9%

4000

1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700

1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24
2500 3500

3000

2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Ireland v Rumania

Normal Monday

Previous Saturday

Ireland v England

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Manual Forecasts 5 of 5 Scaling User Interface

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast OUTPUT 1 of 2

Output from EMS

Load Forecasts Automatic At start of Day Manual On Request Graphical and Tabular Displays Forecast and Actual Load comparison. Forecast for RCUC Exported Automatically Every 30 Minutes Statistical Data Used to improve the Model Improves manual forecasts.

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast OUTPUT 2 of 2

LOAD FORECAST OUTPUT Time 00:00 00:30 01:00 01:30 02:00 02:30 03:00 03:30 04:00 04:30 05:00 05:30 06:00 06:30 Actual 3033 3058 2960 2876 2806 2747 2698 2650 2606 2902 2820 2750 2687 2653 2616 2600 2612 2635 Override Forecast 3052 3079 2987 2912 2834 2766 2707 2676 2642 2629 2641 2663 2736 2910

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast Procedure EMS Produces New Load Forecast Automatically at Start of Day
Outage Scheduling
Review/Adjust 4 Days Ahead Assign Special Days

Day Ahead
Review/Adjust if required Peaks and Valleys Special Days & Events Include overlapping periods

In Day
Review at Start of Shift Review prior to new RCUC Run Review for any additional Day Ahead RCUC Runs Include overlapping periods

EMS Exports Load Forecast to RCUC

Every half hour (even if the file has not been updated)

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast
Future Enhancements

Introduce Wind Chill Influence on Temperature

Update Model
At Least Once a Year

Load Area definition for Wind

Scheduling & Dispatch Workshop

Load Forecast
Summary
Using Recognized Techniques

Accurate to within 2% to 3% of peak demand

Many Variables Involved Weather Forecast Seasonal Variations Bank Holidays and Special Events Lifestyle Changes
Seven Day Shopping Increasing Air Conditioning Load

Sanity Checked RCUC Updated - 30 Minutes