&

-1-

-2-

: , , , ,

:
/
.

_ _
_

Holding Period: ,
t t-1.
:
;
:



(.. ,
...) (.. ,
, ...)

,
, ,
...
Efficient management hypothesis ( ,
...;)

.. , .
.

-3-

_ _
100
_

.
= - ( )
:

1 0 1 1 %

, :
= --

PER

(price/earnings)
.
.

.

.
beta ( Sharp, ).

ri a ii bi rm i
.
...
(
)
( )

(..

...)
(.. )

-4-



1.
a.
b.
c.
d. -
2.
,
.
3.
( Porter)
.
.
4.
( )
5. .
* .. ..

:
:

.

-5-


;
1.
2.


.
, ...)
.
.

:

(b 0) ...
/,

,
...

Options,

...

.
(Credit Scoring)
. ,
.

-6-

, (

,

-7-




(, , )

SOS: (
)

( ; ;)
.
.
: (,
)
: .

.


.

(.. ...)






.

-8-

.

1.
2.

.

1. ( )
2.
3. .

...
.

... ; (

)

;

/ .
( )
.

(FIFO, LIFO
)

-9-


?
, .

, ,
.
,
.
EPS ( )
.
=-
(
). .
:
1. ;
2. ; (persistence)
3.

4. , (
); [ 8 ]



:
1.
2. ( )

. ( )
:
,
. ( 2
)
,
...
.

- 10 -



:
, = (
)
=
..
.
( )
;)
[ ]


( )

.
2004=2003+( )*2003

. .
EPS:

( )
EPS=ROE*( /) ( / )
ROE=ROA* ROA=( / )
ROA=[( )/()]*[()/( )]
( )/()=[( )/()]*[()/()]
DPS= DPS=()/( )
DPS=EPS*[()/( )]

PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS ( )

) .
.

- 11 -




(forecasting and valuation) ,
.
/
1.
2.
,

.
1. ( )
2. (.. )
3. ()
4.

60%

Discounted cash flow Model.
Dividend Valuation Model:

1
TOM M j
j

j 1

Mj


. 2 ,
:

TOM

1
M1
1 1

2
1

1 2

P2 2
2

P2 3 4
4 ... .

- 12 -

M 0 e0
e .
5.
/ (
)
g
,
.
:

E5 E0 1 g

g=0
g ( )

;


CAPM :

E ri R RF bi E rM R RF
b

.
:

100
DPS=1,82 ()
=30% ,
4,5 10%.
16%.
;
:

M1
1
j
TOM M 0 1 g

j
j 1
1 M g

- 13 -

TOM
M
1

1 g
M1 g
TOM
:

M 1 E1

TOM

T
E1

OM
P/E

g
E1

0 1.
.
:

E1 E 0 1 g
TOM

E 0 1 g

TOM 1 g

E0
g

P/E
.
P/E

g
P/E>0 :

>g

P/E>0. P/E<0.
g P/E:
1. :

2.

TOM

E1
g .

TOM 1 g

E0
g

.
:
. 80.000.000,
().
8.000.000.
2.000.000 . P/E

- 14 -


9. (
) 500.000 ( )
2.000.000 ,
.

;
:
= + + =
=8.000.000+2.000.000+500.000=
=10.500
10.500*9=94500 .
94.500-80.000=14.500 , 80.000.000
() .
14.500.000+2.000.000=16.500.000 .
2.000.000.
/ (..) <1
: ( )/ >1
. (.. 5
5 ).

..t ..t 1 ..t t

,
..t ROEt ..t 1

..t
..t
..t
1
1 .

1
TMO M t
t
t 1
1

M t ..t ..t 1 ..t ..t ..t ..t 1

TMO
t 1

..t ..t ..t 1

1 t

- 15 -

TMO ..0
t 1

..t 1

..t ..t 1
1 t

..t ..t 1

2
.
:

ROEt ..t 1
1 t
t 1

TMO ..0

( Edwards Bell-Ohlson)

ROEt ..t 1 0
TMO ..0 .
1 t
t 1

ROE ..0 , .

ROE ..0 , .

.
ROE=/ ROI=./ .

.
ROE ROI .

;
, . ,

.

Economic Value Added (EVA)=(r-c*)Capital
Economic value creation = r * capital-c* * capital
EVA=NOPAT c* * capital
= -

- 16 -


NOPAT>c* * capital . EVA
.

(1-)

: ,
.
(Residual Income)



Divisions-
.
Residual Income:
. .
MVAMarket Value Added:
-

a. *
b. ( )
c.
MVA>0
MVA=0
( )
EVA = Capital * (r-c)
, .
:
( )=( )+(
)
=+

(..)+

..+..

.= 9+3+9,5+1=22,4
(r)=( )/( )

..=

)=5.200.000.000*(1-0,4)
=[5.200.000.000*(1-0,4)]/22.400.000.000
:

- 17 -

*(1-

c* w 1 w
,

ROE=(

)/(

)=(

)/(

)=2/9=23,8%
,

.

..
9

22,59%
.. 39,8

w 1 22,59% 77,41%
, .
Modigliani-Miller, ,
( ).
.
WACC=13,6% EVA=0,0896 89,6.
, :
[( )/( )]=5,22/3,3=2,3
. 3,3 .

.

,
,
,
.

.

(
) .
:
,

- 18 -


, PIN.
e-.
E-shop: ()
a.
b. Website
c.
d.
e. internet

- 19 -