Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: ASEAN Chair Cambodia Provokes Disunity Carlyle A. Thayer July 13, 2012

[client name deleted] We would like your assessment of the acrimonious end to the ASEAN meeting in Phnom Penh. What will be the fall-out from the meeting? We would also like your assessment of the general issues surrounding the South China Sea dispute, as well as Cambodia's chairmanship of ASEAN more generally. ANSWER: Cambodias actions as ASEAN Chair are reprehensible. It has blurred the distinction between Cambodia as one of ASEANs ten members and Cambodia as Chair of ASEAN for this year. The situation created by Cambodias actions has left ASEAN in an unprecedented position. For the first time in ASEANs history its foreign ministers have met and acted on a very heavy agenda but have lost their traditional means of publicizing their decisions. It has been past practice to record ASEAN decisions in a Joint Statement issued by the ASEAN Chair. Leaving the South China Sea dispute aside, what happens to recording what the foreign ministers agreed to on all the other issues they considered? This can be addressed through other statements. But Cambodia has been the wrecker in this process. More specifically, the strong currents of disagreement over the wording of the Joint Statement reveal the worst fears of ASEAN's founding members that if they do not maintain their unity external powers will intervene in Southeast Asias internal affairs. ASEAN stands for the defence of Southeast Asian autonomy from external power intrusion and pressure. This is the first major breach of the dyke of regional autonomy. China has now reached into ASEANs inner sanctum and played on intraASEAN divisions. Hun Sen is no international statesman. He is a bully adept at intimidating his domestic opponents. He bears grudges, and as long as Cambodia is ASEAN's Chair he will brazen it out. His end game is that China will continue its support next year when Cambodia steps down as ASEAN Chair. This will poison ASEAN proceedings from now until November when the next round of ASEAN and related summits will be held. Cambodias single act of obstinacy is a reflection of Chinas influence and not Cambodian interests. This past weeks ASEAN and related meetings was "make or break time" for ASEAN. There is now a real crack in ASEAN unity that could become a fissure and stymie the creation of the ASEAN Political-Security Community as one of the three pillars of the

2 ASEAN Community due to come into being in 2015. If ASEAN is to become a community there must be a we feeling that its members share more in common with each other that with outside powers. ASEAN security should be seen as indivisible. This imbroglio raises the possibility of ASEAN splitting along the lines of the mainland states and the littoral and maritime states. It is likely that the friction over the wording of the Joint Statement will spill over and contaminate the negotiating process between ASEAN members and China on a Code of Conduct. Cambodia is showing itself as China's stalking horse. This will make negotiating a final COC with China more difficult. It is doubtful that the Philippines and perhaps other members of ASEAN can trust Cambodia to keep their negotiating positions confidential. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEAN Chair Cambodia Provokes Disunity , Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 13, 2012.