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Background Briefing: U.S. Rebalancing and Its Impact on Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar Carlyle A. Thayer July 12, 2012

[client name deleted] Regarding the U.S. pivot to Asia, could you provide an appreciation of the following: *On-going military diplomacy with Vietnam, including anticipated increases in ship visits and possible future weapons sales. ANSWER: I think Secretary Clintons visit to Vietnam highlighted the obstacles ahead. See the Background Briefing in Hanoi, Vietnam, by a Senior State Department Official (Kurt Campbell). He highlights differences in the Vietnamese leadership about how to deal with the US. But, he notes that even the most hardline guys, are saying, look, we want a better relationship with the United States. They want us to ease our policy on certain kinds of defense articles. They want a closer relationship, and they want us to be clear and firm with respect to our position on the South China Sea. It is undeniably the case that our relationship has improved dramatically with Vietnam. Secretary Clinton noted in Meets with Staff and Families of Embassy Hanoi, weve reached a level of engagement that would have been unimaginable only a few years ago. Clinton,: And our military-to-military ties, as evidenced by Secretary Panettas very successful visit, are also intensifying. We are working toward a strategic partnership agreement that will give us a framework to deepen and broaden this engagement. But Secretary Clinton went hard on human rights in her meetings with Vietnamese leaders, and specifically sought to meet with the party secretary general Nguyen Phu Trong to get her message across. Campbell makes it clear that the party is conservative and that is why Clinton sought a meeting with Trong. On possible military sales: In 2007, the George W. Bush administration amended the International Trafficking in Arms Regulations (ITAR) to permit the sale of nonlethal weapons to Vietnam on a case-by-case basis. Restrictions were kept in place on weapons and equipment that could be used by ground forces in crowd control. All lethal weapons and many military services remained banned. The Obama administration has made it to clear to Vietnam that its poor human rights record remains a major impediment. In January, when U.S. Senators. John McCain and Joseph Lieberman visited Hanoi, they were given a wish list of military equipment. They made clear at a press conference that they opposed the removal of arms

2 restrictions until Vietnam improved its human rights record. When U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta visited Hanoi in June, Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phung Quang Thanh requested that the U.S. remove all ITAR restrictions. Panetta passed on the same message. If the ban were lifted, Vietnam most likely would seek to acquire coastal radar, air defense missiles and maritime patrol aircraft in addition to spare parts for its inventory of Vietnam War-captured American equipment. *Greater routine access to Philippines naval and air bases and the provision of coastal radars as part of a wider refurbishment of the relationship. ANSWER: I would note the visit of the two SSNs to Subic (SSN North Carolina on May 12 and Louisville on June 27). Note also press report that President Aquino was requesting spy planes and the subsequent retraction. *Initial steps towards a military relationship with Myanmar. (New US Ambassador Derek Mitchell is a former Pentagon official.) ANSWER: I would check on Congressional restrictions. John Blaxland, the former Australian Defence Attache to Thailand and accredited to Myanmar, has argued for Australian engagement, particularly on military law to help the Tatmadaw reform. You might recall that Extended IMET was created to get around Congressional restriction on US military relations with Indonesia. Perhaps the US can be equally creative with Myanmar. * Moves to improve the military relationship with NZ. ANSWER: On June 20 the US and NZ signed an agreement to expand defence cooperation to include a strategic dialogue, joint exercises, and cooperation in maritime security, HA/DR and peacekeeping support operations. Anything further? ANSWER: Note also Minister Stephen Smiths initiative to hold trilateral exercises with the US, Indonesia and Australia out of Darwin. Smith also foreshadowed inviting Chinese observers and in the fullness of time Chinese participation.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, U.S. Rebalancing and Its Impact on Vietnam, the Philippines and Myanmar, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 12, 2012.