Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
The Hamilton Financial Index: ! A semi-annual report on the state of our nancial services industry! ! With a review of the upcoming scal cliff !
About this Report The Partnership for a Secure Financial Future comprises the Consumer Bankers Association, Mortgage Bankers Association, Financial Services Institute, and The Financial Services Roundtable, which combined represent more than 2,700 member companies across all organizations. Hamilton Place Strategies is a consultancy based in Washington, DC with a focus at the intersection of business and government. HPS Insight conducts in-depth analysis on public policy issues. About the Authors Matt McDonald is a Partner at Hamilton Place Strategies. He formerly worked on economic issues at the White House and is a former consultant with McKinsey and Company. Steve McMillin is a Partner at US Policy Metrics, an economic and public policy research firm serving asset managers, hedge funds and the investor community. He is a former Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget and a former partner at HPS. Patrick Sims directs research for HPS. He is a former lead research analyst in the financial institutions' group at SNL Financial and is a former representative of CFA Institute. Russ Grote is an Analyst at Hamilton Place Strategies specializing in economic policy analysis and strategic communication.
Executive Summary
The U.S. financial sector continues to make important changes to strengthen itself against ongoing risks. As we document that improvement in this report, we also explore the tradeoffs inherent in todays higher capital levels, and their implications for economic growth. The key findings of the report are: The Hamilton Financial Index (HFI) rose seven points since the previous quarter and stands at 1.22 as of the end of the first quarter. Banks increase in Tier 1 capital is driving the rise in the HFI. For the HFI to dip below historical norms, systemic risk would have to increase five times the second quarter high. Conversely, if banks had not increased their Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio from the level of three years ago, the second quarter high of systemic risk would have pushed the HFI below normal levels. While the European debt crisis presents risks to the global economy, from the end of the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2012, U.S. banks reduced exposure to the European periphery by over 16 percent and Europe as a whole by eight percent. Lastly, our policy spotlight found that the upcoming fiscal cliff could be the largest fiscal contraction in four decades, potentially causing a significant drop in consumer demand and business investment. The fiscal cliff is further complicated by elevated U.S. debt and annual deficits, a politically contentious debt ceiling debate, constraints on the Fed, and the slowing of the global economy.
There remain significant challenges to the U.S. and global economies. Despite this, the financial sector is positioned to support stronger growth as the economy improves. This report was commissioned by the Partnership for a Secure Financial Future and the conclusions are that of the authors. Matt McDonald Steve McMillin Patrick Sims Russ Grote
CONTENTS
THE HAMILTON FINANCIAL INDEX3 An index to measure both risk within the financial system and how firms are dealing with that risk. SAFETY AND SOUNDNESS .11 A look at how our financial services sector has rebuilt after the crisis and how they are meeting current challenges particularly European risk. VALUE TO THE ECONOMY 20 An examination of the everyday value that financial services bring to our lives, as well as an in-depth look at how the sector continues to supports the economy during the recovery. POLICY SPOTLIGHT THE FISCAL CLIFF...38 An explainer of the individual pieces of the fiscal cliff and its economic consequences in the context of a slowing global economy, the debt ceiling, rising US deficits and the disposition of the Federal Reserve.
Key Findings Q112: At 1.22, the Hamilton Financial Index was 7 points higher than the previous quarter and 22 percent above even normal pre-crisis levels. At current capital levels, system level risks would have to increase 5 times the 2nd quarter high for the HFI to dip below historical norms.
Capital is central to a [banks] ability to absorb unexpected losses and continue to lend to creditworthy businesses and consumers. - Federal Reserve CCAR
!
The notion that decisions come with Tier 1 Common Capital tradeoffs is nothing new. An economic increased to above $1.1 tradeoff can be compared to an opportunity cost, which represents the trillion, driving the Tier benefits you could have received by taking 1 Common Risk-Based an alternative action. The accumulation of Ratio to 12.76 percent. capital involves an opportunity cost. Any increase in capital may indicate the industry ! ! is better able to absorb losses. But it is important to understand that capital held as a buffer is capital unused to fund important lending that would aid economic growth. This tradeoff between economic safety and economic growth is why the above Federal Reserve quote is so meaningful capital has two purposes: it is used to absorb unexpected losses and to lend businesses and consumers. A delicate balance is needed to promote industry safety while encouraging healthy investment and lending.
Hamilton Place Strategies | 3
1.25!
The Hamilton Financial Index rebounded to a level 22% above normal after a small dip due to a rise of nancial stress in the fall.!
Index Value!
1.00!
0.75!
0.50!
0.25!
1994!
1995!
1996!
1997!
1998!
1999!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
The HFI combines capital levels and financial stress to provide a snapshot of the financial sectors ability to handle risk. It uses two commonly accepted metrics: 1. 2. The St. Louis Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index captures 18 market indicators and is a well-established indicator of financial stress Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio for commercial banks measures financial institutions ability to absorb unexpected losses in an adverse environment
In the first quarter of 2012, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index fell, while the Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio for U.S. banks rose, causing the index to improve. During the second quarter of 2012, events in Europe have caused stress in the system to rise. However, because U.S. banks have increased industry capitalization, systemic stress would have to be significantly higher for the HFI to be in unsafe territory.
2012!
Effectively, for the index to fall below normal levels, the level of systemic stress would have to increase by five times the second quarter high. The economy has not seen that level of stress in three years. Conversely, if banks had not increased their Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio from the level of three years ago, the second quarter high of systemic risk would have pushed the HFI below normal levels. This dramatic shift by U.S. banks over the past three years has better positioned them to withstand shocks from Europe and elsewhere (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit!2 !
THE HFI ROSE DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CAPITAL LEVELS AND SUBDUED FINANCIAL STRESS!
HFI During 2008 Crisis: Less capital, high risk!
14! 14 12! 12
10 10!
Units*!
0.46
8 8! 6 6! 4 4! 2 2! 0 0!
Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio! St. Louis Financial Stress Index!
For the index to dip below its historical average of 1, nancial stress would have to increase ve times its Q212 high.!
Source: FDIC, SNL Financial, St. Louis Federal Reserve, HPSInsight! Note:*Tier 1 Common Ratio is a %, St. Louis Financial Stress unit is an index value!
Methodology
The index value is the difference between the quarterly averages of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the quarterly Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio for the banking industry. All data points are indexed to 1994 levels and 1.00 is the historical norm from 1994 to the present.
indicators fill in important pieces not captured by interest rates or yields. For example, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index captures the markets expectation of volatility in the financial system. Each indicator captures an aspect of financial stress within the system with some overlap. Collectively, they provide a snapshot of systemic risk in financial markets.
Exhibit!3 !
THE ST. LOUIS FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX INCORPORATES 18 VARIABLES TO MEASURE STRESS!
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index! Interest Rates!
1. Effective federal funds rate ! 2. 2-year Treasury rate! 3. 10-year Treasury rate! 4. 30-year Treasury rate! 5. Baa-rated corporate rate! 6. Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index! 7. Merrill Lynch Asset-Backed Master BBB-rated! 9. Corporate Baa-rated bond minus 10-year Treasury ! 10. Merrill Lynch High-Yield Corporate Master II Index minus 10-year Treasury! 11. 3-month LIBOR-OIS spread! 12. 3-month (TED) spread ! 13. 3-month commercial paper minus 3-month Treasury bill ! !
Yield Spreads!
8. 10-year Treasury minus 3month Treasury!
Other Measures!
14. J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus! ! 15. Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX)! ! 16. Merrill Lynch Bond Market Volatility Index (1-month)! 17. 10-year nominal Treasury yield minus 10-year Treasury Ination Protected Security yield (breakeven ination rate)! 18. Vanguard Financials ExchangeTraded Fund (equities)!
Capital levels have increased 38 percent since 2007 to more than $1.1 trillion. In addition to higher capital levels, the first quarter of 2012 also saw a further decline in banks holdings of risky assets as a percentage of total assets. The fall from the pre-crisis highs calculates to a drop of 13 percent (Exhibit 5). The industrys ability to shed problem assets and retool balance sheets is an important step. With a reduction of risky assets, the financial industry can turn its focus to aiding the economy.2
Exhibit!4 !
REGULATORY CAPITAL LEVELS HIT ANOTHER ALL-TIME HIGH IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012!
Tier 1 Common Capital and Tier 1 Common Risk-Based Ratio for U.S. Banks! 14! Tier 1 Common Capital ($T)! Tier 1 Common Risk-Based Ratio (%)! Tier 1 Common Capital Ratio has risen 38% since 2007 to an alltime high.! 1.4! 1.2!
12!
6!
1991!
1992!
1993!
1994!
1995!
1996!
1997!
1998!
1999!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Q112!
Exhibit!5 !
Percent (%)!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Q112!
The need to increase capital dominates the current political consensus around bank capital levels with little discussion about the magnitude and impact of reduced lending. When banks convert maturing loan proceeds into capital rather than relending them into the economy, they increase the safety and soundness of the system at the expense of current economic growth. Over the long run, increased safety and soundness may prevent crises and improve growth prospects. However, there are diminishing returns to each additional dollar of capital (Exhibit 6). At a certain point, higher capital standards could actually reduce growth. The magnitude of this effect is uncertain, but the tradeoff is real and unfortunately underrecognized.
Exhibit!6 !
A study by American economist and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, states each dollar of capital supports between $7 and $10 dollars of lending activity.8 McKinsey estimates that American banks alone need an additional $870 billion in capital to meet future regulatory standards.9 These numbers imply that economic growth could take a major hit as a result of significantly higher capital levels. A more important aspect of requiring higher capital levels is that a banks ability to raise additional capital in economically challenging times would be more difficult than doing so in periods of higher economic growth. To save in good times and then spend in bad is traditional economic thought. Unfortunately, the regulatory world never seems to function in this manner. In requiring higher capitals now, the possibility emerges that it could drive changes in lending activity and reduce transparency.10
Total capital and surplus for the P&C and Life & Health industries rose to $576 billion and $314 billion, respectively.! U.S. financial institutions exposure to the European periphery fell 16 percent over the past year.!
This section will examine these metrics to complement the HFI such as liquidity, insurance capital levels and performance ! measures. The section will also look at the European crisis and its potential impact on the U.S. financial sector as well as the broader economy.
THE U.S. BANKING SYSTEM IS MORE LIQUID NOW THAN AT AN ANY TIME IN THE PAST!
Total Loans as a Percent of Total Deposits for U.S. Banks! 100!
Percent (%)!
90! 80! 70! 60! 50! Both ratios show that the industry is more liquid today that at any time in the past.! -21%!
Cash & Cash Equivalents as a Percent of Liabilities for U.S. Banks! 25!
Percent (%)!
Q1 12!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
The second ratio, known as the Cash Ratio, is Cash and Cash Equivalents-to-Liabilities. It also gauges liquidity; however, it represents cash on-hand and other assets easily converted to cash, which can then be used to pay any financial obligations. As of the first quarter of 2012, the Cash Ratio was valued at 23 percent (Exhibit 7). The Cash Ratio is nearly threetimes the level it was the year before the crisis and is at an all-time high. Both ratios indicate an extremely liquid banking industry. While the banking industry has a high level of liquidity, indicating a less risky market, a high level of liquidity also represents less profitable lending opportunities and lower demand for loans in the economy. When the economy returns to higher levels of growth, the banking industrys liquidity will be reduced as lending increases. Therefore, increased liquidity may be a sign that the economy is still in recovery.
Exhibit!8 !
P&C AND LIFE INSURERS CAPITAL AND SURPLUS CONTINUES TO RISE SINCE THE CRISIS!
Surplus as Regards to Policyholders ($B) ! C&S as a Percent of Assets (%)!
P&C Insurers!
600 600!
500! 500 400! 400
28 28! 24 24!
20! 20 10! 9! 8! 7! 6! 5! Life Insurers!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Q1 12!
Exhibit!9 !
15 15! 10 10! 5 5! 0 0!
-5! -5 -10! -10 -15! -15
Percent (%)!
Dollars ($B)!
Q108!
Q208!
Q308!
Q408!
Q109!
Q209!
Q309!
Q409!
Q110!
Q210!
Q310!
Q410!
Q111!
Q211!
Q311!
Q411!
The U.S P&C insurance industry posted healthy profits in the first quarter of 2012, as net income rose to $12.2 billion, up from $11.2 billion just a quarter prior (Exhibit 10). During the crisis, much of the loss suffered by the P&C industry related to loss on investment income via the market crash. However, losses also can occur from catastrophic events. This was seen in the second quarter of 2011 when several natural disasters occurred throughout the world. Fortunately, a large number of individuals and businesses had insurance plans with many U.S. institutions, triggering massive payouts to plan owners. Increased profits for the P&C industry are a promising sign, as income now can be used to invest, lower premium costs for buyers and as savings to absorb any unexpected losses that occur in the future. While the P&C industry saw healthy profits in the first quarter of 2012, the Life insurance industry witnessed its most profitable quarter since the crisis. Net Income rose from $4.4 billion in the last quarter of 2011 to $14.9 billion as of March 30, 2012 (Exhibit 10). To put this in perspective, the Life insurance industry saw massive losses in the last half of 2008 of more than $51 billion. The large gains associated with the recent quarterly data strongly indicate that U.S. financial institutions are supporting a growing economy. The industry is still in recovery stages, as profitability is volatile from quarter to quarter. Future earnings will determine if the recovery is sustainable.
Q112!
Exhibit!10 !
10 10! 5 5! 0 0!
Percent (%)!
Dollars ($B)!
Q108!
Q208!
Q308!
Q408!
Q109!
Q209!
Q309!
Q409!
Q110!
Q210!
Q310!
Q410!
Q111!
Q211!
Q311!
Q411!
Q112!
troubling situation. Investors have focused on a select number of countries, particularly Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, GDP growth rates for 2012 among the distressed European periphery members are estimated to be the lowest in all of Europe. 14 U.S. Bank Exposure to Europe It is no coincidence that low GDP growth rates are linked with ratings downgrades. Yet, U.S. banks have aligned their portfolios with countries that are rated safer (Exhibit 11). In fact, more than 72 percent of all risk claims are associated with countries with a AAA rating.15 !"#$%&'! !"#$!%&'()$*+,-+.
!"##$#%! "!"#$ !"#$%&'()! "!"#$ !"#$%&! ! "!"#$ !"#$%&! ! "!"#$ !"#$%&'(! "!"## ! !"#$%&'()*&(+%","-./0(!"#$%%&'$"($)*"&#
U.S. banks exposure to the European periphery declined over 16 percent in the past 12 months. Moreover, exposure to Europe on the whole has declined by eight percent during that time period. (Exhibit 12). The peripheral countries of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain represent less than $200 billion in risk claims, and are less than 10 percent of total exposure (Exhibit 13).16
Exhibit!11 !
U.S. BANKS EUROPEAN EXPOSURE IS CONCENTRATED IN COUNTRIES WITH HIGH CREDIT RATINGS!
Total Risk Claims by Country and National S&P Ratings!
$351.4B!
$785.9B!
$53.8B!
U.S. banks total exposure to Greek risk claims is less than 1% of UK risk claims. Exposure to peripheral countries is less than 10% of total European exposure.! $5.8B! Risk Claims ($B)!
Exhibit!12 !
U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE REDUCED EXPOSURE TO THE PERIPHERY BY OVER 16%!
Percent Change of Country Risk Claims from Q111 to Q112! 50! 40! 30! 20! Over the course of the last 12 months, U.S. banks have reduced exposure to the periphery from $216 billion to $181 billion and to Europe as a whole by eight percent.!
Percent (%)!
10! 0! -10! -20! -30! -40! -50! -60! Greece! Spain! Ireland! Portugal! Italy! Germany! France! UK! Swiss! Total Europe!
Exhibit!13 !
U.S. BANKS ARE MOST EXPOSED TO THE U.K., GERMANY AND FRANCE!
Risk Claims ($B)! < 10! 10 - 100! 100 - 500! > 500!
The continued turmoil around Europes debt problems has contributed to market instability. However, no U.S. bank has reported significant losses tied to the issue as of the date of this report. While it is worth noting that financial contagion effects are an unfortunate reality and European countries with investment grade ratings today could lose them in the future, U.S. banks have reduced exposure to Europe and total direct exposure to the periphery is modest. Potential Impacts on the U.S. Economy The threat of financial contagion is ongoing. Although a major public fear is tied to U.S. banks exposure to Europe, there are other important threats to the U.S. economy that are not linked to the U.S. banking sector. For instance, many emerging markets obtain funding for imports from European banks. If their source of funding is cut off, exports to these countries could dry up. This could have a large impact on U.S. GDP, since emerging market economies have represented a large share of U.S. export growth over the last several years. In fact, U.S. exports to Brazil alone have increased 70 percent since 2007. Although total exports only account for roughly 14 percent of U.S. GDP, the increase in exports represents nearly half of GDP growth in the U.S., according to RBC Capital Markets chief U.S. economist, Tom Porcelli.17 Further distress in Europe could also lead to other issues for the U.S. economy, including direct exports to Europe, U.S. banking losses tied to European debt, and supply-chain issues involving U.S. multinational firms. When compiling the potential impact of emerging market exports with other factors, a Euro break-up could have serious consequences for the U.S. economy.
Summary
The financial services industry as whole continues to increase levels of safety and soundness shown through both capitalization and liquidity measurements, although increased levels of capitalization and liquidity are no free lunch as a tradeoff exists between these measurements and economic growth. Higher levels of liquidity are also being driven by a low demand for loans, rather than a low supply. This indicates that while the financial sector has quickly repositioned itself since the crisis, other parts of the U.S. economy are recovering at a slower pace. If the economy returns to higher levels of growth, then liquidity and capitalization will decrease. Therefore, the balance between safety and growth is a delicate one. As the industry faces global economic challenges, i.e. crises in Europe, its current levels of capitalization and liquidity will contribute to, rather than reduce, system wide stability. Even though banks are continually adjusting to safeguard themselves against catastrophe, the trouble in Europe could potentially impact the U.S. economy via emerging market exports and other links. To an extent, the negative effects on the U.S. economy from a further deepening of the European crisis are in many ways unavoidable.
Hamilton Place Strategies | 19
In the first half of 2012, U.S. economic growth decelerated, households continued to deleverage, and uncertainty ! about the fate of the Eurozone permeated the economic climate. Banks continued to play the dual role of financial shelter for investors seeking refuge from volatile markets and supporter of the recovery for businesses looking to expand. Meanwhile, insurers whose services are less tied to the state of the economy continue to aid individuals and businesses.
Exhibit!14 !
THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY DECELERATED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2012! Payroll Growth!
Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Change and Real GDP Growth! GDP Growth (%)!
First and second quarter GDP and job growth is continuing to slow down through the summer.!
8!
Q1 08!
Q2 08!
Q3 08!
Q4 08!
Q1 09!
Q2 09!
Q3 09!
Q4 09!
Q1 10!
Q2 10!
Q3 10!
Q4 10!
Q1 11!
Q2 11!
Q3 11!
Q4 11!
With slower economic growth, consumers continued to deleverage in 2012 (Exhibit 15). According to the New York Federal Reserves Quarterly Household Credit and Debit Report, households have reduced total debt burdens by 10 percent since the crisis and total household debt is down to $11.43 trillion, a level not seen since late 2006. Mortgage and home-equity debt fell one percent and 2.4 percent respectively, while auto and student loan debt rose slightly. Deleveraging places households on sounder financial footing for the future. However, it can also potentially drag economic growth. Typically, deleveraging is discussed as a temporary phenomenon with the expectation that households eventually will gain confidence and increase spending. New evidence, though, suggests that households may have adjusted to a new normal. !
Hamilton Place Strategies | 21
Q1 12!
Household deleveraging continues despite Federal Reserve data demonstrating that monthly financial obligations are at lows not seen sine the early 1990s. On average, households allocate about 16 percent of their income to meet their monthly financial obligations, which include debt service, rent for tenant-occupied households, automobile leases, homeowners insurance and property taxes. This is significantly lower than the 19 percent they spent before the recession. Continued deleveraging despite low monthly financial obligations is consistent with low growth expectations. In fact, the expected increase in inflation-adjusted family income has plummeted since the recession according to data from the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. After 20 years of reporting expectations of a two-to-three percent increase in family income over the next 12 months, households have foreseen less than a 0.5 percent increase, the lowest median level on record. These data points suggest that rather than deleveraging to help pay current bills, households may be using their excess income as insurance to handle future financial shocks.
Exhibit!15 !
HOUSEHOLDS ARE CONTINUING TO REDUCE Total Q112 Change: ! - 0.9%! DEBT BURDENS IN 2012! Mortgage debt: ! - 1.0%!
Total Household Debt by Type! 13! 12! 11! Other! Student Loan! Credit Card! Auto Loan! HE Revolving*! 8! 7! 6! Mortgage! HE Revolving:! Auto Loans: ! Credit Card: ! Student loan debt: ! - 2.4%! ! +0.3%! ! - 3.6%! ! +3.4%!
Dollars ($T)!
10! 9!
Q106!
Q107!
Q108!
Q109!
Q110!
Q111!
Moreover, the fall in housing prices erased a significant amount of wealth that allowed people to borrow and spend more. Therefore, with the baby boomers retiring, it is welcome news to see retirement accounts rebounding strongly from the crisis. In fact, in the first quarter of 2012, the total value of the U.S. retirement market reached a record high of $17.9 trillion (Exhibit 16). According to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), as of the third quarter of 2011, retirement
22 | The State of Our Financial Services
Q112!
savings comprised 36 percent of all household financial assets. Current and soon-tobe retirees lost a significant amount of wealth due to the plunge in home prices, but the recent gains in the retirement market have helped provide more financial security to individuals.
Exhibit!16 !
THE TOTAL RETIREMENT MARKET REACHED AN ALLTIME HIGH OF $17.9 TRILLION AT THE END OF 2011!
Total U.S. Retirement Market! 18! 16! 14! +13%! Annuities! Federal Pension Plans! State and Local ! Government Pension Plans! Private DB Plans!
Dollars ($T)!
12! 10! 8! 6! 4! 2!
DC Plans!
IRAs!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2000!
Financial Shelter
Given the fragility of the recovery in the first half of 2012, the U.S. financial sector continues to serve as a safe haven in times of economic crisis. In the first quarter of 2012, the U.S. financial industry continued to play the role of safe keeper as deposits continued to rise, topping out at $9.46 trillion. Moreover, core deposits, which are comprised of accounts holding $250,000 or less, excluding brokered deposits, and are considered highly liquid, continued to rise. As a percent of total liabilities, they now stand at 76.2 percent, the highest level since 1993 (Exhibit 17). This level of core deposits provides a large and stable base to fund loans. Not only did the level of deposits rise, but also the growth rate was faster than the previous several periods. From the fourth quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2012, the growth rate of deposits increased from 9.2 percent to10.3 percent. As noted earlier, the LTD ratio for U.S. commercial banks continued to fall and now sits below 70 percent. While the drop represents a more liquid banking system, it also reflects an increased flight to safety as individuals and companies look to avoid volatility in the markets. !
Hamilton Place Strategies | 23
2007!
2011!
Exhibit!17 !
90! 90
80 80!
70! 70 60! 60 50! 50 40! 40 30! 30 +24%!
7! 6! 5! 4! 3!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
2!
Providing Credit
Despite the economic slowdown and continued movement toward safety, U.S. commercial banks still increased loans to the economy. Total loans and leases in the first quarter of 2012 rose to $6.8 trillion, slightly below the all-time high set in 2008 (Exhibit 18). The increase in loans was driven by rises in real estate lending. While still increasing, loan growth has slowed Total loans and leases in in 2012. In the third and fourth quarter of 2011, loans grew at 11.4 and 9.3 percent, the first quarter of 2012 respectively. During that time, the loan rose to $6.8 trillion, growth rate outpaced the deposit growth slightly below the allrate. However, in the first quarter of 2012, the loan growth rate slowed to 4.55 percent. time high set in 2008. The underlying dynamics show an economy ! in flux where consumers pull back from credit needs, businesses continue to expand at a moderate pace and the housing market shows signs of life.
Q1 12!
Exhibit!18 !
TOTAL LOANS AND LEASES ROSE TO $6.8 TRILLION IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2012!
Total Loans from U.S. Commercial Banks! 7!
6!
Dollars ($T)!
5!
4!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
3!
Loans to Businesses
The rise in total loans and leases was driven by increased commercial and industrial loans. Commercial and industrial loans increased to $1.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2012. This growth offset the fall in consumer loans, which was driven by a reduction in credit card loans (Exhibit 19). U.S. commercial banks also continued to increase loans to businesses in the first quarter of 2012 by three percent. Total loan volume now tops $2 trillion, the second-highest level on record. Since the end of 2010, domestic business loans have risen almost 10 percent (Exhibit 20).
Q1 12!
Exhibit!19 !
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS HAVE DRIVEN INCREASES IN NON-REAL ESTATE LOANS IN 2012!
Consumer Loans and Commercial and Industrial Loans ! for U.S. Banks! 2.8! 2.4! 2.0! Consumer Loans ($T)! Commercial & Industrial Loans ($T)!
Dollars ($T)!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
Exhibit!20 !
$2 Trillion!
Dollars ($T)!
2.0!
1.5!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
1.0!
Q1 12!
Spotlight: U.S. Bank Support for Metropolitan Transportation Tashitaa Tufaas bus company, Metropolitan Transportation Network Inc., is on course to have its best year yet in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. The company plans to add between 60-80 new buses to its fleet of 300 for the school year that begins this fall, and it already has added 60 new jobs this year. Its strong growth earned the company a spot on the Minneapolis-St. Paul Business Journals list of top 50 fastest-growing companies in the area. Tufaas success did not come easy. The company hit a rough patch in the midst of the recession as school districts cut costs wherever possible. Tufaa weathered the storm until 2011 by self-financing and continually putting money back into the business. That year, he sought counsel from U.S. Bank. U.S. Bank examined Metropolitan Transportation and determined how it could help the company become more profitable and grow. The bank proposed that the company consolidate its multiple sites into one location to save time and travel. The company took the advice and a year later has added employees and equipment. Tufaa expects revenue to rise to record levels. Consolidating the worksites allowed the company to purchase larger fuel tanks, which has provided major savings in the high fuel-cost environment. The new garage is top of the line and makes others want to learn from us, says Tufaa. U.S. Bank helped us control unnecessary costs and made the consolidation process easy. !
While total domestic business loans continued to increase, their rate of growth decelerated from six percent to three percent. This change more than likely reflects reduced demand for loans as economic growth decelerated. Commenting on the drop in small business Businesses that need loans, Paynet founder Bill Phelan said, "These businesses are cautiousThey're funding are becoming holding back on new investments and more likely to receive expansions in their businesses, and that's loans from banks than really a result of the view of uncertainty in 18 the marketplace." The Federal Reserve several years ago. ! Senior Loan Officer survey found that from January to April 2012, a majority of banks eased standards on Commercial and Industrial loans. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey tells a similar story, as small-business owners are not signaling reduced loan availability or lower levels of borrower satisfaction from the previous year (Exhibit 21). Moreover, only three percent of small-business owners cite financing as their largest problem.19 Businesses that need funding are becoming more likely to receive loans from banks than several years ago.
Exhibit!21 !
SMALL-BUSINESSES LOAN AVAILABILITY AND BORROWER SATISFACTION REMAINED UP SINCE THE END OF 2011!
3-Month Rolling Average of Net Small-Business Owners Responding Loan Availability is Increasing vs. Decreasing and That Borrowing Needs Are Satised! 0! Availability of Loans! Borrowing Needs Satised! 45! 40!
35!
-5!
-10!
15! 10! 5!
-15!
0!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Loans to Individuals
Beyond loans to businesses, banks lend to consumers to help finance consumer spending. Overall, consumer loans have fallen since last quarter, led by a slight drop in credit-card loans. However, as we saw in the winter HFI, credit-card loans increased 70 percent during the crisis as consumers looked to finance purchases in tough times. Therefore, a gradual reduction of these loans is unsurprising in the short-term. Consumers have continued to increase their holdings of automobile debt to finance car purchases for the fifth consecutive quarter. May auto sales were up 17.4 percent from 12 months earlier. The largest type of loan to individuals, realestate loans, has started to tick up for the first time since the crisis. Total real-estate loans rose to $3.6 trillion in the first quarter of 2012 (Exhibit 22).
2012!
Spotlight: Fifth Third Bank Support for Square 1 Art In 1999, Andrew Reid, a former businessman, and his wife Martha, a former elementary school art teacher, received a small loan from Ballston Spa National Bank to combine their passions and start their own business, Square 1 Art. The company reproduces childrens art onto shirts, mugs and other products and shares the profits of their sales with schools. The product affirms students artistic achievements, gives parents keepsakes of their childrens art and provides schools a fundraising option in difficult budget times. After several years of impressive 20 percent annual growth, Square 1 Art had the opportunity to expand. Andrew and Martha moved the operation from Upstate New York to Atlanta. They recently acquired 84,000 square feet of warehouse space to increase production, employment and opportunities for schools throughout the country. Tired of expensive leases, they found a partner in Fifth Third bank. It represented Square 1 Art to the Small Business Administration for a loan guarantee. The couple received a larger line of credit that allowed them to make critical purchases and meet the up-and-down cost requirements of a highly seasonal business. Fifth Third is known as a bank with a hands-on approach. Andrew, for one, needed to know what will a bank do for you today and what will they do for you tomorrow. He found a bank ready to tackle his financing needs while giving his wife and him the confidence to take advantage of growth opportunities down the road. Not only is Square 1 Art the realization of the American Dream for them, it has also become that for their adult children, Travis and Jane, who are now members of the leadership team. Square 1 Arts continued growth will mean the passing down of the family business thanks to two caring banks. ! !
Exhibit!22 !
Dollars ($T)!
3!
2!
1!
Throughout the recovery, many analysts predicted a housing bottom and, according to CoreLogic data, housing prices increased month-over-month in both March and April, thus showing signs of stabilization. Housing starts also increased significantly from last year according to data from the Department of Commerce. In May, year-overIn May, year-overyear total privately owned housing unit starts were up 28 percent at a 708,000 seasonally year privately owned adjusted annual rate. With inventories housing unit starts tightening in many markets, especially in the were up 28 percent.! multifamily sector, Americas housing sector showed promise of making a comeback and ! propelling the recovery. In fact, residential investment increased 19.3 percent in the first quarter of 2012. Despite recent gains, the housing market remains in recovery given the low levels of starts. The fundamentals of the market still point to slow but improving growth in the nearterm. Every year from 1992 to 2006, more than 1 million single-family homes were started, more than double the current rate of 492,000. The annual pace of multifamily home construction, which is up over 100 percent from 2009 lows, is still 17 percent below the average from 1990 to 2008 (Exhibit 23).
Q1 12!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Exhibit!23 !
WHILE INCREASING THIS YEAR, NEW HOUSING STARTS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS !
Single Unit and Multifamily Starts! 2.2! 2.0! 1.8! 1.6! 1.4! Multifamily starts have increased while single unit starts continue to lag! Multifamily! Single Unit!
Millions!
1990!
1991!
1992!
1993!
1994!
1995!
1996!
1997!
1998!
1999!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
While overbuilding occurred prior to the recession, low levels of construction in the late 2000s brought household construction more in line with household formation in the 2000s (Exhibit 24). Demand for housing has slowed for two reasons: household formation has declined significantly since the crisis; and consumers tenuous credit situations make mortgage lending more risky. Household formation since the crisis is 57 percent below trend growth, equating to three million missing households (Exhibit 25). More specifically, the high rate of youth unemployment combined with rising student debt levels may have led to significantly less household formation among recent college graduates. According to the Census CPS/HVS survey, more men and women aged 24 to 30 years old are living with their parents now than in the past 20 years. Nineteen percent of men and 10 percent of women in this age group currently live with their parents, compared to 14 and nine percent pre-recession. Moreover, the entire dropoff comes from family household formation as opposed to groups.
2012!
Exhibit!24 !
RELATIVE TO HOUSEHOLD FORMATION, THE 2000S DID NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT OVERBUILDING IN HOUSING!
Housing Starts and Household Formation! 17! 16! Pace of 2000-2007! 18! 17! 16! 15! There was a boom in the early 2000s. We were on pace to build more houses in that decade than any since the 1950s while having a very low level of household formation. ! ! However, the bust over the past four years brings the total to normal levels. Moreover, low levels of construction in 2011 continues to reduce supply issues.! ! Starts! New Households!
15! 14! 13! 12! 11! 10! 9! 8! 7! 1960s! 1970s! 1980s! 1990s! 2000s!
Starts (Thousands)!
Exhibit!25 !
120!
115!
110!
2000!
2002!
2004!
2006!
2008!
2010!
2012!
105!
This data suggests that new families are putting off moving into their own home. In addition to young people moving in with parents, a decline in immigration has reduced household formation during the crisis. Beyond slower household formation, high debt levels and poor credit further constrain growth in the housing market. The main method for deleveraging has been foreclosing on houses. According to The McKinsey Institute, two-thirds of household deleveraging has been through foreclosures and defaults on consumer credit.20 While this reduces debt burdens, the negative effect on credit scores makes mortgage lending less attractive. Real-estate assets, while improving for banks, still have high non-performing rates (Exhibit 26).
Exhibit!26 !
NONCURRENT REAL-ESTATE LOANS ARE IMPROVING, BUT ARE STILL ABOVE HISTORICAL NORMS!
! Noncurrent NonReal Estate loans have fallen unlike Real Estate Loans! Noncurrent 1-4 Unit Family Loans remain very high! ! Noncurrent Multifamily and Land Dev/ Construction Loans have fallen but remain high! 15!
Noncurrent Total Real Estate vs Non Real Estate (%)!
Noncurrent Real Estate Loans (%)! Noncurrent Non-Real Estate Loans (%)!
10! 0!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Banks have responded to these dynamics by tightening lending standards for less creditworthy borrowers - 90 percent of all new mortgages last year went to borrowers with high credit scores compared to 50 percent several years ago.21 This has helped banks improve their balance sheets, but it also results in less lending and lower growth in the sector. Despite headwinds, the fundamentals show signs of improvement. Home prices are beginning to stabilize, inventories are shrinking, debt burdens are falling and realestate loan performance is improving. With the improved bank balance sheets as detailed in Section 2 of the report, banks should be in a prime position to support a sustained housing recovery. In the near-term, the fundamentals point to an increase in multifamily housing, as the vacancy rate is historically low and rental prices have
Hamilton Place Strategies | 33
2012!
skyrocketed (Exhibit 27). Most recently, Reis data shows the rental vacancy rate dropping to 4.7 percent, the lowest point in a decade.22 It is not surprising to see that U.S. banks have increased multifamily loans by six percent as of the first quarter of 2012.
Exhibit!27 !
350 350! 300 300! 250 250! 200 200! 150 150! 100 100!
2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011!
10! 9! 8! 7! 6!
2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011!
Spotlight: Allstate Support for the Gasmans Dustin and Jill Gasman were driving to the airport to start a relaxing summer vacation in Mexico when they noticed their car was having issues. Dustin discovered the catalytic converter, a device designed to reduce harmful emissions released from a vehicles exhaust, was sawed off. With no choice but to leave them unresolved before takeoff, Dustin quickly filed a claim and notified their Allstate agent Scott Burlet. Understanding his clients situation, Scott notified Allstate claims adjuster Mike Nelson and, together, they worked diligently to ensure the Gasmans had a vacation free of worries about their car. Nelson traveled to the Gasmans car, crawled under it to take pictures and arranged for a nearby mechanic to make the necessary repairs. He also arranged a rental car for the Gasmans when he realized the repairs wouldnt be finished in time. The Gasmans were very appreciative. All the parts had been ordered, so all I needed to do was pick our car up from the hotel and drop it off [at the dealership, said Dustin. Burlet credits mechanic Nelson for his service. He did the extra footwork and arranged everything, said Burlet. For Nelson, though, helping the Gasmans wasnt a big deal. It went without saying that we needed to do what we could to get the problem resolved, he explains. ! !
Exhibit!28 !
Dollars ($B)!
100 100!
400! 400 300! 300 200! 200 100! 100
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Source: FDIC, SNL Financial ! *Premiums are annualized and Loan & Loss Adjusted Expenses are calculated on a Last-Twelve Months basis!
Q1 12*!
The Life industry had Premiums, Consideration and Deposits (a comparable metric to Net Premiums for the P&C industry) of $627 billion in the first quarter of 2012, a record high. In the first quarter of 2012, payouts for the industry amounted to $493 billion (Exhibit 29). Life insurance payouts are measured in the form of Benefits and Surrenders. Benefits include death benefits, matured endowments, annuity benefits, accident & health benefits, guarantees, group conversions, and life contingent contract pay. Surrender benefits and withdrawals for life contracts include all surrender or other withdrawal benefit amounts incurred in connection with contract provisions for surrender or withdrawal. As stated above, insurance companies main role is to pool risk to help individuals and companies hedge against unexpected losses. To ensure they can cover losses adequately, P&C and Life insurers charge premiums. However, one method to lower premiums or provide better benefits to customers is to invest premiums in stock markets, bonds and other asset classes. These investments not only help insurers better service their customers, but also contribute to economic growth by turning idle savings into capital for growing companies. As a whole, the insurance industry held cash and investments of $4.74 trillion in the first quarter of 2012, of which Life insurers have $3.38 trillion in investments and P&C insurers have $1.36 trillion.
Exhibit!29 !
Dollars ($B)!
200! 100! 600! 600 Life Insurance Payouts, Surrenders and Benets!
200 200!
100! 100 Benets ($B)!
0 0!
2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! Q1 12*!
Source: FDIC, SNL Financial! *Premiums are annualized and Payouts, Surrenders and Benets are calculated on Last-Twelve Month basis! !
Summary
Despite the deceleration of economic growth, financial services still played a vital role as a financial shelter, supporter of the recovery and insurer against risk. As detailed in the first section, the financial sectors efforts to increase the level of safety and soundness may lead to reduced lending in the short run. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty has reduced the amount of leverage that households and businesses are willing to undertake. However, by raising capital levels now, banks will be in a better position to contribute sustainably to economic growth as the economy continues to improve. Spotlight: Wells Fargo Support for Green Technology and Enfinity Wells Fargo views solar energy as a viable source of power for the future. Recently, it affirmed its commitment to environmentally friendly business opportunities by pledging an additional $30 billion of support by 2020. In the past seven years alone, Wells Fargo has provided more than $11.7 billion in capital across their environmental portfolio, which includes investments in green buildings, green businesses, and renewable energy projects. As Jason Kaminsky, vice president of its Environmental Finance group, explains, Wells Fargo is committed to meeting the financial needs of both small and large companies integral to the growth of the solar industry." One Wells Fargo relationship is with Enfinity, among the worlds largest solar developers with over 390 megawatts of worldwide installed solar capacity. Enfinity provides solar energy directly to commercial and government customers to provide electricity savings.! David Shipley, Chief Financial Officer for Enfinity in the Americas, says that Enfinity is extremely bullish about the opportunities for growth in distributed solar generation, but we need partners like Wells Fargo to make it happen. Initially, Enfinity relied on Wells Fargo to provide foreign-exchange services to manage its international operation. More recently, it has invested directly into Enfinity projects. Describing the relationship between the two companies, David says, Enfinity works with investment partners like Wells Fargo that have the appetite and mission to invest in solar assets. Their relationship illustrates how banks and businesses can work together to bring innovative new services to the market. !
Policy Spotlight:
The Economic Impact of the Fiscal Cliff
Without legislative action, on January 1, 2013, federal tax and spending policy will change so drastically that the U.S. economy will undergo the largest year-over-year fiscal contraction in the past 40 years (Exhibit 30). While partially unwinding the effects of the fiscal expansion in 2009, the staggering magnitude of this fiscal adjustment and the severity of its consequences have earned this phenomenon the nickname the fiscal cliff. Without action to avoid the fiscal cliff, the U.S. could be at risk of falling into a recession in 2013. Moreover, the fiscal cliff only adds to existing economic concerns such as the Chinese economy showing signs of a slowdown and the fate of the Eurozone remaining in doubt. Meanwhile, the U.S. is also expected to hit the debt ceiling in early 2013, meaning Congress will have to struggle with both the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling debate potentially amidst a global slowdown. However, despite the hyperbole of its nickname, the fiscal cliff represents a set of choices with tradeoffs in the short and long run. This section of the report seeks to explain the many aspects of the fiscal cliff while properly contextualizing the issue within the debt ceiling debate, the U.S. precarious fiscal position and the disposition of the Federal Reserve.
38 | The State of Our Financial Services
Key Findings: The fiscal cliff represents the potential for the largest yearover-year fiscal contraction in four decades. 66% of the fiscal cliff is revenue increases. The debt ceiling will need to be raised early in 2013. Last years debate caused significant turmoil in the markets. Monetary policy can offset some of the fiscal cliff, but new Fed action would yield diminishing returns and is constrained by inflation concerns.
! !
Exhibit!30 !
THE FISCAL CLIFF REPRESENTS A 4% FISCAL CONTRACTION IN THE 2013 FISCAL YEAR!
Net Year-Over-Year Fiscal Adjustment! 7! 6! 5! 4! 3! 2! 1! 0! -1! -2! -3! -4! -5! The total scal adjustment represents the net effects of tax and spending increases/ decreases. ! A four percent scal contraction is unprecedented and would equal the single largest scal contraction in the past four decades.!
Expansion! Contraction!
Percent of GDP!
1977!
1979!
1981!
1983!
1985!
1987!
1989!
1991!
1993!
1995!
1997!
1999!
2001!
2003!
2005!
2007!
2009!
2011!
1973!
1975!
2013!
Exhibit!31 !
66% OF THE $607 BILLION FISCAL CLIFF IS REVENUE INCREASES! Total scal adjustment is about
Fiscal Cliff Breakdown!
700! $105 B in Spending Cuts! 600! $399 B in Tax Hikes! $607 B! 5% of GDP in CY 2013 and the U.S. would fall into a recession.!
500! 400! 300! 200! 100! 0! Income and Estate! Payroll! Other*! Affordable Budget Unemploy-! Cut in Continuation Fiscal Cliff! of other Care Act! Control Act! ment Medicares Benets! payment! existing policies!
Source: Congressional Budget Ofce ! *The main provision expiring is the partial expensing of investment properties, !
One expiring tax that has received too little attention is the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation. Normally, if a person owes $100,000 and the lender forgives 20 percent, the borrower must report $20,000 as taxable income. This provision excludes mortgage debt forgiveness from taxation. Without action, this provision will expire, reducing the effectiveness of foreclosure prevention efforts for struggling homeowners. On the spending side, automatic spending cuts or sequestration under the Budget Control Act (BCA) accounts for $65 billion, or 64 percent of total spending cuts. Also, the expiration of extended unemployment insurance benefits will reduce total payments by $26 billion in 2013. The BCA was passed in the summer of 2011 as a part of bipartisan compromise to raise the debt ceiling. Sequestration was imposed as a backstop to ensure that deficit reduction promised by the law would be achieved. These spending cuts primarily affect defense and nondefense discretionary spending, which together make up roughly one-third of the budget. The remainder of federal spending is largely made up of entitlements, which are barely affected by the BCA. For example, the maximum cut to Medicare is only 2 percent. Meanwhile, Medicaid, SChip and SNAP (food stamps) are exempt. Most analysis of the impending fiscal cliff focuses on the collective impact of all these decisions on aggregate demand in the national economy. However, each aspect of the fiscal cliff impacts a specific part of the U.S. economy.
40 | The State of Our Financial Services
If the fiscal cliff is ! not avoided, the shock to the economy increases the risk of a U.S. recession.! !
THE FISCAL CLIFF MAY REDUCE GDP GROWTH BY 4% IN 2013 AND CAUSE A RECESSION IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR!
Real GDP Growth! 4.5! 4.0! 3.5! 2.5! 2.0! 1.5! -4%! 1.0! 0.5! 0.0! -0.5! -1.0! -1.5! First half! 2013! Second half! 2013! Without Cliff! With Cliff! Without avoiding the scal cliff, the U.S. would fall into a recession in the rst half of 2013 !
Percent (%)!
3.0! 2.5! 2.0! 1.5! 1.0! 0.5! 0.0! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013!
The CBOs findings are echoed by analysts for Goldman Sachs, who estimates a four percent reduction in growth25, and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley, who argues that even with ultraconservative multipliers, it seems almost certain the U.S. would enter into a recession next year if the fiscal cliff is not avoided. Moreover, 38 of 39 top economists surveyed by the University of Chicago Booth Business School agreed that output would be lower than the alternate fiscal scenario (which avoids most of the fiscal cliff) if no action were taken.26 The economic analyses cited above are concerned that the fiscal cliff will significantly reduce aggregate demand in the economy. If the fiscal cliff is not avoided, all households would see an immediate reduction in cash as payroll taxes
Hamilton Place Strategies | 41
rise. And while income tax hikes will not be paid until 2014, people will cut spending immediately to save for their future tax bills. Spending program cuts would directly impact governmentdependent jobs, while reducing unemployment assistance will impact consumer spending. With less after-tax income, spending will decline.
Moreover, according to research by Christina and David Romer of the ! University of California at Berkeley, the effect of tax hikes on demand for goods and services is magnified as businesses reduced growth expectations translate into lower investment. In total, they find a tax increase of one percent of GDP reduces inflation-adjusted GDP by roughly three percent.27 In the intervening time period, uncertainty around policy could put business investment on hold, further stifling growth.
Moreover, 38 of 39 top economists surveyed by the University of Chicago Booth Business School agreed that output would be lower than the alternate fiscal scenario if no action were taken.!
Exhibit!33 !
THE FISCAL CLIFF WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE DEFICIT IN THE MEDIUM-RUN!
Debt Held by the Public as a Percent of GDP! 100! Current Law! Alternative Fiscal Scenario! According to CBO analysis, increasing debt levels will raise interest rates, reducing growth over the decade.! ! 31.9% While cuts will hurt in the of GDP ! short-run, over the next decade they can be positive for economic growth.! ! Through this lens, the scal cliff represents a trade-off between the short-run and long-run. !
2013! 2014! 2015! 2016! 2017! 2018! 2019! 2020! 2021! 2022!
90!
Percent (%)!
80!
70!
60!
2012!
50!
Exhibit!34 !
WITHOUT LEGISLATIVE ACTION, THE DEBT CEILING MAY BE REACHED IN EARLY 2013!
Total Outstanding Debt Subject to Debt Limit! 17! Current debt ceiling is $16..4 trillion ! 16! Without any actions by Secretary Geithner, the U.S. Treasury will hit the debt ceiling in early 2013.! ! Actions to delay hitting the debt ceiling are only temporary solutions.!
Dollars ($T)!
15!
Potential timeline for debt ceiling reach with Treasury actions to buy more time!
14!
While the effect of uncertainty around economic policy has been a polarizing topic in the political debate, research attempting to quantify the effects of uncertainty suggests it may be highly detrimental to the economy. One attempt to quantify the effect was the development of The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index by economists Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steve Davis, which showed its largest spike during the debt ceiling debate last summer. In fact, the level of economic policy uncertainty rose 92 percent during the debt ceiling debate and peaked 18 percent higher than the month Lehman Brothers failed (Exhibit 35). 28 Furthermore, analysis by Baker, Bloom and Davis found that a rise in uncertainty equal to the change from 2006 to 2011 resulted in large and persistent drops in output with peak declines of 3.2 percent of real GDP and 2.3 million fewer jobs. The rise in policy uncertainty also correlated with significant downward shifts in other economic indicators.29 After five months of averaging 72 points, consumer confidence plunged 16 points to 55.8 in the summer of 2011, a level not seen since the fall of 2008. The S&P 500 steadily climbed 255 points for the 12 months leading up to the debt ceiling debate. During the three-month debt ceiling debate, the S&P 500 plummeted 152 points. Employment gains suffered as well. On average, 176,000 jobs were created each month from January through May. However, during the three-month debt ceiling debate, job growth slowed to just 88,000 jobs created per month. All three of these indicators recovered to previous levels quickly after the crisis, further
Jan-11! Feb-11! Mar-11! Apr-11! May-11! Jun-11! Jul-11! Aug-11! Sep-11! Oct-11! Nov-11! Dec-11! Jan-12! Feb-12! Mar-12! Apr-12! May-12! Jun-12! Jul-12! Aug-12! Sep-12! Oct-12! Nov-12! Dec-12! Jan-13!
13!
suggesting that increased uncertainty caused by the debt ceiling had a measurable effect on the economy.30
Exhibit!35 !
Index Value!
2000!
2001!
2002!
2003!
2004!
2005!
2006!
2007!
2008!
2009!
2010!
2011!
Source: "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty", (2012), Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steve Davis, St. Louis Federal Reserve!
The most striking aspect of the debt ceiling debates effect on the economy was that the debt ceiling was raised in time to avoid defaulting on any payments. If the federal government were to default on payments of interest and principal, the effect on the global economy cannot be overstated, as so much economic activity is dependent on the U.S. Treasury paying its debt. Even the deferral of other nondebt obligations (Social Security, federal salaries, payments to contractors) would have an unpredictable effect on market confidence.
2012!
0!
and the struggles in the housing market make it more difficult for the Fed to gain traction by lowering long-term rates.
The Federal Reserve can still ease monetary policy by conveying to market participants that it will do everything in its power to maintain aggregate demand. The Fed can do this by conducting another round of ! quantitative easing. It can also turn this into a communications policy by announcing expected quantitative easing purchases on a monthly or even weekly basis. More radically, the Fed could signal it is willing to tolerate a higher level of inflation. A price level targeting approach would try to average two percent inflation over time, thus signaling it would temporarily tolerate higher inflation in order to get the economy moving. In practice, this reduces peoples demand for holding money, as they expect rising nominal income, increasing spending and stimulating the economy. The Fed has tools to mute the effects of the fiscal cliff, but they are atypical actions that still face one major constraint: inflation. The Feds preferred inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE deflator) price index, without food and energy prices. Essentially, the Fed purchases a representative basket of goods and tracks the rate at which the price of the basket of goods rise. Food and energy prices are excluded because they are volatile, making targeting them difficult. The PCE deflator is close to the Feds target, leaving little room for action especially since the unemployment rate, while elevated, is trending downward (Exhibit 36). However, if the U.S. enters a recession, the rate of inflation would fall, opening up more room for Fed action to stimulate the economy. In reality, however, the Fed is constrained by more than just inflation. If the Fed feels constrained by the political controversy associated with unconventional policy, this discomfort may impair their ability to mitigate the economic effects of the fiscal cliff. Yet, even without constraints, the Fed will have difficulty of offsetting the sheer magnitude of the entire fiscal cliff.
The Fed has tools to mute the effects of the fiscal cliff, but they are atypical actions that still face one major constraint, inflation.
Exhibit!36 ! UNEMPLOYMENT IS FALLING WHILE THE FEDERAL RESERVES PREFERRED MEASURE OF INFLATION IS CLOSE TO FED TARGET!
Core PCE deator is near Fed target! PCE, Percent Change from Year Ago! Unemployment rate has fallen over the past 2 years! Unemployment Rate! 10! 9!
5!
3!
4!
Percent (%)!
8! 7! 6! 5!
-1!
0!
1!
2!
-2!
4!
Jul-08!
Jul-09!
Jul-10!
Jul-11!
Jan-08!
Jan-09!
Jan-10!
Jan-11!
Jan-12!
Jan-08!
Jan-09!
Jan-10!
Jan-11!
Conclusion
A decade of deferred fiscal decisions by policymakers will come to a head on December 31, 2012. Should Congress and the President be unable to act (or choose not to act), higher taxes and abrupt spending reductions would cause severe disruptions for families and businesses, leading to harmful impacts on the macro economy. Most observers are hopeful that, rather than simply falling off the fiscal cliff, the federal government will enact a rational program of deficit reduction that more than offsets actions taken to mitigate near-term demand shock. With the notable exception of the Budget Control Act, these hopes have proven elusive in earlier showdowns on fiscal policy. Getting agreement on short-term fixes has been far easier to achieve than the painful choices necessary to address the long-term fiscal imbalance. Slow economic growth and persistent unemployment increase the chances that expiring spending and tax relief will simply be extended while deferring necessary actions to reduce long-term deficits. It remains to be seen whether this years showdown over the fiscal cliff will more closely resemble December 2010 or August 2011.
Jan-12!
Jul-12!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1 2
Data provided by SNL Financial unless otherwise noted. Quarterly Banking Profile: First Quarter 2012, FDIC Quarterly, 2012, Volume 6, Number 2. 3 Capital: How Much is Enough? Banks are Having to Puff Up their Capital Cushions, The Economist, May 12, 2012. 4 Berrospide and Edge, The Effect of Bank Capital on Lending: What Do We Know, and What Does it Mean? Federal Reserve Board, August 17, 2010. 5 Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the Transition to Stronger Capital and Liquidity Requirements, Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements, December 2010. 6 General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation, OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2, 2010. 7 Suttle, Measuring the Cumulative Economic Impact of Basel III, Institute of International Finance, Sept. 19, 2011. 8 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas. The Costs of Implementing the Dodd-Frank Act: Budgetary and Economic. Testimony at House Financial Services Hearing. March 31, 2011. 9 Hrle, Lders, Pepanides, Pfetsch, Poppensieker and Stegemann, Basel III and European Banking: Its Impact, How Banks Might Respond, and the Challenges of Implemention, McKinsey & Company, November 2010. 10 Buehler, Samandari and Mazingo, Capital Ratios and Financial Distress: Lessons from the Crisis, Risk Practice, McKinsey & Company, December 2009. 11 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review for 2012 FAQ. Federal Reserve, November 22, 2011. 12 Daruvala, Malik and Nauck, Why U.S. Banks Need a New Business Model, Investors Want Radical Plans to Boost ROE Above the Cost of Capital, Financial Services Practice, McKinsey & Company, January 2012. 13 Greene, This is Not a Fiscal or Debt Crisis, But a Growth Crisis, Sunday Independent, April 22, 2012. 14 2011 The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd, a Division of the Economist. 15 Standard & Poors Rating Services 16 Country Exposure Lending Survey and Country Exposure Information Report: First Quarter 2012, Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, June 29, 2012. 17 Phillips, Matthew. How Europes Contagion May Hit the U.S. Economy, Bloomberg Businessweek, June 7, 2012. 18 Schnurr, Leah. Small business lending cools in April for fourth month.Reuters, June 1, 2012. 19 Dunkelberg, William and Wade, Holly. NFIB Small Business Economic Trends. NFIB, June 2012. 20 Roxburgh, Lund, Daruvala, Manyika, Dobbs, Forn, Croxson, Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth, McKinsey Global Institute, January 2012. 21 Hilsenrath, Jon. Fed Wrestles With How Best to Bridge U.S. Credit Divide. The Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2012. 22 Wotapka, Dawn. Rents Increase as Vacancies Dry Up. The Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2012. 23 Page, Benjamin. Economic Effects of Reducing The Fiscal Restraint That is Scheduled to Occur in 2013. Congressional Budget Office, May 2012. 24 Greenlaw, David. How Big is the Fiscal Cliff in 2013?. Morgan Stanley, April 13, 2012. 25 Philips, Matthew. The Fiscal Cliff Will Drive the U.S. Into Recession. Bloomberg Businessweek, May 17,2012. 26 Fiscal Cliff. IMG Forum University of Chicago Booth Business School, June 5, 2012. 27 Romer, Christina and Romer, David. The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks. March 2007. 28 Baker, Scott, Bloom, Nicholas, and Davis, Steve. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2012. 29 Baker, Scott, Bloom, Nicholas, and Davis, Steve. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. 2012. 30 Stevenson, Betsy and Wolfers, Justin. Debt-Ceiling Deja Vu Could Sink Economy. Bloomberg, May 28, 2012.
Partnership for a Secure Financial Future 1001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 500S Washington, DC 20004 (202) 589-1927 www.OurFinancialFuture.com Hamilton Place Strategies 805 15th Street NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20005 (202) 822-1205 www.hamiltonplacestrategies.com !