21

CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the methods and formulas used on this feasibility study.
These methods are mainly on technical and economic analysis.

3.2 Solar Energy Potential in the Philippines
Accurate solar resource data is important for the proper sizing and life cycle
cost analysis of solar photovoltaic technologies. Knowledge of the spatial distribution
of the solar resource for various tilt angles will allow for more cost effective design
and operation of photovoltaic systems for meeting small, distributed loads.
The vast potential of solar energy in the Philippines in the annual energy per
square meter per day conducted by the United States National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) in the 1990s, solar resource assessments have been conducted for
the Philippines using ground-based measurements of the daily total number of hours
of sunshine duration.

3.3 Available Solar Energy
In the Philippines, solar energy resources, known as INSOLATION or
incident solar radiation, varies from 5.0 to 6.5 Kwh/m
2
/day during dry season (March
May) and 3.0 to 5.5 Kwh/m
2
/day during wet season (November-January) [2]. In this
study the Average available solar energy was used so
The Philippines, being a tropical country has an abundant source of solar
energy with an average irradiance of 4.9 kilowatt-hours per square meter per day [5].

3.4 Site for the Study

MORESCO-1 is an active partner in nation building and believes that our
greatest motivation to be among the best in the reformed electric power industry is the
generation of prompt, honest and responsive service to our member-consumers whose
support is responsible for our success.


22

3.5 System Sizing

3.5.1 Sizing of Array
PV array consist of PV modules connected in series and parallel to obtain the
desired voltage and the current.

3.5.1.2 Number of Modules
From the desired power capacity of PV system P

and rated power of the PV

module technology chosen, P
s
, the total number of module, N
0
, can be calculated, by
means of equation 1. For calculated number of module with decimal places must be
rounded-off to the next whole number.

N
0

P

P

(1)

3.5.1.3 Numbers Modules in series
To calculate the maximum number of photovoltaic modules that could be
connected in series, equation 2 can be used. And the resulting number of modules is
rounded-off to next whole number.

N
s

d ncc
od Ic
(2)

3.5.1.4 Numbers of modules connected in parallel
To calculate the maximum number of photovoltaic array that could be
connected in parallel using equation 3 and number of array is rounded-off to next
whole number.

N

(3)





23

3.5.1.5 Array Voltage
To determine the total voltage of the series connected module in array is can
be calculated using equation 4.It is necessary to calculate the voltage for the
interconnecting of inverter correspondence with the minimum and maximum
operating temperature because there is a minimum and maximum voltage that the
inverter is specified so that it will function properly.

Mo
N
s
(4)

3.5.1.6 Array Current
On PV system, the total current in array is equal to the rated current of module
multiplied to the number of modules in array and can be calculated using equation (5).

Mo
N

(5)

3.5.1.7Array Area
To find the total area of array on the PV system, equation 6 will be used. The
computation for the photovoltaic array area is dependent on the number of its module.


Mod
N
o
(6)

3.5.2 Sizing of Inverter
Verification on interconnecting the Inverter with respect to modules is consist
of three steps and must be satisfy for the required verification and the temperature to
be assumed and the three steps are [13].
Step 1.First of all it is necessary to verify that no load voltage v
oc
at the output
of the strings, at the minimum prospective temperature (-10
0
C), is lower than the
maximum temperature which the inverter can be withstand, that is in equation 7
where v
_n
is maximum input voltage withstood by the inverter but
o
must be
defined first using equation 8.



24


o

_n
(7)


o

o_

N
s

n


(8)

where
o
is the max no-load voltage of the PV field in correspondence with the
minimum operating temperature expected for the PV modules,
o
T
Open circuit
voltage at STC ,

is voltage temperature co-efficient/

0
C,
n
expected min. daily
cell temperature,

cell temperature at STC, measured in
0
C, N
s
is the number of
cells in series in the module.
Step 2.The minimum voltage (at 60
0
C) at the corresponding maximum power
at the output of the string under standard solar radiation conditions shall be higher
than the minimum operating operation voltage the MMP of the inverter that is
equation 9 where the
MMP_
is the maximum input voltage admitted by the
inverter and

must be calculated using equation 10.

MMP_
(9)

N
s

cII_cII


(10)

Where

is the voltage at the maximum power point (MPP) of the PV field in

correspondence with the minimum operating temperature expected for the PV
modules,
MMP
maximum Power Point Voltage at STC,

is voltage temperature
co-efficient/
0
C,
cII_cII
cell temperature at specified temperature,T

cell
temperature at STC, measured in
o
C, N
s
is the number of cells in series in the module.
Step 3.The minimum voltage (at 20
0
C) at the corresponding minimum power
output of the string under standard solar radiation conditions shall be higher than the
minimum operating operation voltage the MMP of the inverter that is using equation
11 where
MMP_n
is the minimum input voltage admitted by the inverter and
n

must be solve first using equation 12 .



25



n_

MMP_
(11)


n

_

N
s

cII


(12)

Where
n
is voltage at the minimum power point (MPP) of the PV field, in
correspondence with the minimum operating temperature expected for the PV
modules,
MMP_
Minimum Power Point Voltage at STC,

is voltage temperature
co-efficient/
0
C,
cII_
cell temperature at specified temperature,

cell temperature
at STC, measured in
0
C.,N
s
is the number of cells in series in the module.

3.5.3 Sizing of Cables
As much as the design/sizing of the grid connected PV system is important,
the accurate selection of the system wiring cables is very essential in order that the
system is safe. The wring must not reduce the performance of any of the components.
The cables in a grid connected system must be sized correctly to reduce the voltage
drops in the cable and to make sure that the safe current handling capacity of the cable
is not exceed.
Hence to the voltage can be solve using equation 13 Where A is the cross
sectional area (CSA) in mm
2
, I is current through the cables in ampere, L the length of
the cables in meters is the resistivity of the copper wire normally equal to 0.00183.
The multiplication by 2 accounts for the total circuit wire.


d

I

(13)

3.5.3.1 Sizing cables between PV modules
The cable is sized based on the equation 13 and the following information.
Where length of the cable is 1.5 m and the maximum current be multiplied by 125%
of its short circuit current using equation 14 of modules the voltage drop can be
calculated using equation 15[22].


26



12S%
c
(14)


d
S%

(15)

3.5.3.2 Sizing cable from PV Array to inverter
The cable is sized based on the equation 13 and the following information are
the following Where length of the cable is 20 m and the maximum current be
multiplied by 125% of its short circuit current of modules then multiplied again by the
number of modules in parallel using equation 3 and the voltage drop is 5 percent of
the voltage system related to equation 15.

12S%
s
N

(16)

3.5.3.3 Sizing cable from Inverter to main Junction
First the maximum current from inverter at full load on each phase (line) is
given by equation 17 and the voltage drop is 5 percent of the voltage output on AC
side related to equation 15.


sc

Incc

cu u

(17)

3.5.4 Sizing of circuit Breaker
Circuit breaker are installed in the system to cater for over current protection
and sized to not be below 125% of the current flowing through the wiring in
accordance with the Philippine Electrical Code (PEC).

3.5.4.1 Sizing of circuit protection between PV Array and Inverter
There are generally two ways of undertaking the circuit protection between
PV array and inverter. First is each parallel strings of modules can be fused before
entering DC collection point and second is the total output of the PV array is fused
before being joined to the inverter.


27

3.5.4.2 Sizing of circuit protection on every phase output of inverter
The maximum current from inverter at full load on each phase (line) is given
by equation 18 and therefore the minimum rating of circuit breaker is 125% times the

sc
.

sc

Incc

cu u

(18)

3.6.1 Solar Geometry/Earth Angle
Earth angle and its components are shown in figure 7. The following sections
described components of the solar geometry;

Figure 7: Basic sun earth angle.

3.6.1.1 Latitude
Latitude is defined as the angular distance of the point on the earth measured
from equator to north or to south where. It is positive for Northern Hemisphere
locations and negative for Southern Hemisphere. 9u 9u

3.6.1.2 Longitude
The angular distance measured east and west of prime meridian.

3.6.1.3 Declination angle
According to [13] the declination is the angular position of the sun at solar
noon, with respect to the plane of the equator. Its value in degrees is given by
Coopers equation:


28

2S.4S S6u
4n

(19)

where n is the day of year (i.e. n =1 for January 1, n = 32 for February 1, etc.).
Declination varies between -23.45 on December 21 and +23.45 on June 21.

3.6.2 Solar hour angle, sunset hour angle and day length

3.6.2.1 Solar hour angle
The solar hour angle from [13] is the angular displacement of the sun east or
west of the local meridian; morning negative, afternoon positive. The solar hour angle
is equal to zero at solar noon and varies by 15 degrees per hour from solar noon. For
example at 7 a.m. (solar time2) the hour angle is equal to 75 (7 a.m. is five hours
from noon; five times 15 is equal to 75, with a negative sign because it is morning).
Mathematically define as:

12 (20)

Where h is hour of the day.

3.6.2.2 Sunset hour angle
The sunset hour angle is the solar hour angle corresponding to the time when
the sun sets. It is given by equation 21:

c
0
(21)

where is the declination, and is the latitude of the site, specified by the user. Also,
day length (in hours) is obtained as:


0

4

0
(22)



29

3.6.3 Extraterrestrial radiation and clearness index
Solar radiation outside the earths atmosphere is called extraterrestrial
radiation. Daily extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface,
0
can be computed
for day n from the following equation [13]:

0

400

1 u.uSS c 2
n

c c
0

0
(23)

where
s
is the solar constant equal to 1,367 W/m
2
, and all other variables have the
same meaning as before. Before reaching the surface of the earth, radiation from the
sun is attenuated by the atmosphere and the clouds. The ratio of solar radiation at the
surface of the earth to extraterrestrial radiation is called the clearness index. Thus the
monthly average clearness index,

, is defined as:

(24)

where
d
is the monthly average daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface and
0

is the monthly average extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface.

3.6.4 PV Module

3.6.4.1 Average array efficiency
According to RETScreen, The array is characterized by its average
efficiency,

which is a function of average module temperature

(25)

where

is the PV module efficiency at reference temperature Tr (= 25C), and

is
the temperature coefficient for module efficiency. T
c
is related to the mean monthly
ambient temperature

through Evans formula

30

219 8S2

0
00
(26)

where NOCT is the Nominal Operating Cell Temperature and K

the monthly
clearness index.

, NOCT, and

depends on the type of PV module considered.

The equation above is valid when the arrays tilt is optimal (i.e. equal to the latitude
minus the declination). If the angle differs from the optimum the right side of
equation 17 has to be multiplied by a correction factor C
f
defined by equation 27
where
M
is the optimum tilt angle and S is the actual tilt angle, both expressed in
degrees.

1 1.17x1u
4
S

(27)

3.6.5 PV System Assumptions and Losses
From Jambor, S. (2010),

is composed of dirt and dust losses which is

equal to 10% and
c
is wire and other electrical components losses this is equal to 2%
of the system output. The system is assume to be fixed, south facing and is tilted at
latitude for optimum yearly output. For this study latitude is 8.52
0
. The analysis of
this paper does not include the shading losses because no particular sight of the
specified location was considered. For inverter, a typical grid connected inverter has
an average efficiency of 96.6%.

3.6.6 PV Array Degradation
After 25 years, total array degradation is expected to be 20% below nameplate
rating. This is typical of the warranty offered by several manufacturers (e.g., Sharp).
Actual PV array degradation will vary by climate and module manufacturing
methods. For this study 10 % module degradation is assumed after 25 years, an annual
degradation of 0.41667% per year is expected (assumed in linear). Hence Philippines
is a tropical country, climate is not to hot and not to cold [14].

3.6.8 Solar Insolation
Accurate Solar resources data is important for the proper sizing/designing any
solar energy system and requires knowledge on the availability of solar irradiation
data at the location of interest. Solar irradiance is the amount of solar power striking a
31

given area. It is measure of the intensity of the sun-shine and a given units of watts (or
kilowatts) per square meter. Insolation is the amount of solar energy receives on a
given area measured in kilowatts-hour per square meter (kWh/m
2
).

3.7 Estimated Energy System Output
In order to design a PV system, it is important to know how solar energy is
converted into electricity. The following model is useful for understanding the energy
conversion process. But the Battery Efficiency is not included on the calculation
because the system is grid connected therefore system output is calculated using
equation 28 on daily bases and the monthly output is evaluated using equation 29 and
finally, system output energy for one year is calculated from the summation of the
results from equation 28 or mainly solved by equation 30 which is a function of D
which is increasing every year where

is the array area,

average efficiency as
function of ambient temperature.


o

(28)

o
c

o
0
d
;
o
> 0 (29)

o
1 N 1
o
n
d
(30)
3.7.1 Capacity Factors
Capacity factor is the ratio of the PV energy produced in a given time to the
energy that could be produced in that time if the plant had been continuously
generating its fully rated output and can be solve Using equation 31.

. F
ncg gcnccd
d s4

dP
(31)


3.7.2 PV System Efficiency
System Efficiency is can be calculated using equation 32 where

is average
conversion efficiency of PV array,
n
is the inverter conversion efficiency that is
given by the manufacturer and equal to 96.6%. From Jambor, S. (2010),

is
composed of dirt and dust losses which is equal to 10% and

is wire and other

32

electrical components losses this is equal to 2% of the system output thus System
Efficiency can be calculated using equation 32.
.

s s
=

n
1

) (32)

3.8 Net Present Value Method
A solution for the design of an installation must be supported by two
feasibility analyses: a technical one and an economic one. When carrying out the
technical analysis it is often necessary to choose between possible alternatives, which
are all good from a technical point of view and which guarantee an optimum sizing of
the installation. What often leads to optimum for a solution compared with another is
the result of the evaluation of the economic advantage of an investment. The
comprehensive economic analysis is carried out through a cost-benefit analysis,
consisting in a comparison between the initial investment and the NPV which is
expected to inflow during the life of the plant [13].
NPV is an indicator of how much value an investment or project adds to the
value of the firm. The criterion of the NPV method is to consider a project attractive if
the NPV of its cash flow stream is positive for a given interest rate. This method is
suitable to classify projects, which are mutually exclusive, i.e., once project
alternative is carried out, the realization of another alternative is no longer possible.
Mutually exclusive project is that when at most one project out of the group can be
chosen [16] it is given by equation 33.


NP
F

SS

3.8.1 Life Cycle Energy Cost of PV
For a breakeven analysis the cost the total energy must be equal to the overall
expenses or to the life cycle cost given by:
LCC E
o co
(34)

33





P





cu u

(35)

Disaggregating and then rearranging the equation above, the Life-Cycle Energy Cost
of an on-grid PV can be calculated by equation (35). For the analysis with a percent
or with desired profit is added in the left side of equation (34).


os

M



P

cu u

(36)

where pw subscript indicates the present worth of each factor, C is the capital
cost of a project includes the initial capital expense for equipment, the system design,
engineering, and installation. This cost is always considered as a single payment
occurring in the initial year of the project, regardless of how the project is financed. M
is the maintenance cost of the sum of all scheduled maintenances. Replacement, R, is
the sum of all repairs and equipment replacement cost anticipated over the life of the
system, P is the profit to be attained at the end of the usable life of the system, and S
is the salvage value of a system, this is the net worth in the final year of life-cycle
period.


3.8.1.1 LCC methodology on Financial Analysis
When applying LCC methodology, it is easiest to evaluate all costs from
different years correlated to one year (e.g., net present value). Costs that arise in the
future must be discounted due to the time value of money. Typically, all future costs
are transformed to their present value. The following formula is used on LCC
methods.
The formula for the single present worth, P, of a future sum of money, F, in a
given year, N at a given discount rate, i, is given by equation 37.

P

(37)
The formula for the uniform present worth, P, of an annual sum, A, received over a
period of years, N, at a given discount rate, i, is given by equation 38.
34


P

(38)

Future value of a commodities or services in a given year N, at a given
escalation rate, e, is given in equation 39, knowing the fact that the components and
services traditionally get expensive over time.

F P1

(39)

3.8.1.1 Economic Parameters
Discount rate describes the changes of value of money over time. Appropriate
discount factors must be applied to this end as can be commonly found in financial
analysis as far as economic is concern. The researcher assumes an annual discount
rate of 10% for this study and is constant over the life of the systems.

3.8.1.2 Discount rate
Discount rate describes the changes of value of money over time. The
researcher assumes an annual discount rate of 10% for this study and is constant over
the life of the systems.

3.8.1.3 System Life of PV
A matured PV module has a life expectancy of 25 years as specified by almost
all manufacturers. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that systems life to last for 25
years, rating ath the end at which PV system would be providing 80 percent of its
name plate. Researcher also assumes that the system is built in year 2012. Therefore,
all materials, equipments, and services costs, discount and escalation rates, and
electric utility rate is based in this year. 2038 will be the decommissioning of the PV
system.

3.8.1.4 Philippine peso Currency Exchange rate
Philippine peso to US dollar exchange rate used in this study is recent
exchange rate. 1 US dollar = 44 Philippine peso.

35

3.8.2 Initial cost
Initial cost is the cost of equipment, including systems design and installation
costs.

3.8.2.1 Module price
Cost of a PV module depends on the technology used, module efficiency,
brand, nominal power, and module specifications. The as the efficiency increases the
more the module gets expensive, same as through with the nominal power or rated
power of a module[20].

3.8.2.3 Inverter Cost
Inverter price was taken from SatCon Power Gate Plus. The replacement of
inverters is every 10 years. Then, the present worth of inverter replacement cost will
be calculated using equation 37.

3.8.2.2 Balance of System
This refers to all of the up-front costs associated with a PV system except the
module: mounting and racking components, inverters, wiring, installation labor,
financing and contractual costs, permitting, and interconnection, among others [21].

3.8.3 Operation and Maintenance costs
Present value is the total sum of annual costs taken as a present worth for
operator's salaries, equipment inspections, insurance, tax, prepaid maintenance. These
costs here are not reflecting the cost of fuel consumption or replacing major
equipment items. Estimations of personnel costs over the project lifetime, particularly
in labor-intensive projects of long duration can be an important component of any
LCC analysis. Operation and Maintenance costs assumed to be 5% per year of the
initial cost. Maintenance is assumed to be constant in this study on the lifespan of the
module

3.8.4 Replacement costs
Present value reflects major repairs and equipment replacements which occur
when the normal duty life of any system components is shorter than the life
expectancy of the entire system. Although the PV array and mounting structure will
36

typically last for 25 years or more, most inverters according to [17] life expectancy of
an inverter is 10 years. As a result, periodic replacement of the inverter is an
important consideration about the economics of your PV system.

3.8.5 Salvage value
Salvage value or recovery value of the equipment is the net value of the
equipment used at the end of the system's service life. The salvage or residual value of
a plant and/or components is based on the possibilities of alternative uses at the end of
the project lifetime. Assuming that equipment or plant parts can be sold, the expected
liquidation yield from the sale at a fixed point in time is usually taken as the residual
value. If a later sale is improbable, then salvage value of zero would be appropriate.
Any possible dismantling costs and costs for making a sale must be deducted from the
project salvage value. For this study, the salvage value after expected usable life is
assumed to be zero [18].

3.8.6 Payback Period (PBP)
The payback period (PBP) is a measure of the time required for an initial
investment to be recovered, neglecting the time value of money. It is intuitively the
measure that describes how long something takes to "pay for itself"; shorter payback
periods are obviously preferable to longer payback periods (all else being equal).
Thus if Cfo represents the initial investment and CFj is the net cash flow for the jth
year (j=1, 2, 3,., n), the payback period satisfies:[16] , is given by equation 40.


F F
o

P P

4u

3.8.7 Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
The internal rate of return (IRR) of a cash flow stream is the discount rate,
which makes discounted cash inflows equal to discounted cash outflows, i.e., NPV =
0. This means that in case the discount rate is similar to the IRR, the capital invested
in a project does not yield any net benefit, but on the other hand no net losses are
suffered. A project is a good investment proposition if its IRR is greater than the rate
37

of return that could be earned by alternative investments. Thus, the IRR should be
compared to an alternative cost of capital including an appropriate risk premium [10].
The IRR is determined with the help of the following expression:

u
F

1
F
o

P P

4u

3.9 Financing

3.9.1Self Financed
Self financed is that all the expenses or the investment is totally financed by
one person. As a case of this study, it is assumed that the Electric Cooperative (EC)
like MORESCO-1 is the one who owned and financed the investment.

3.9.2 Financed
In a financed PV plant, the initial investment is totally or partially financed by
a bank, which schedules the payback of the loan granted on the basis of the
assignment of the credit deriving from the incentive tariff on the produced power. The
loan is designed with a determined fixed or variable interest rate, with rates and
period variable depending on the real annual power production of the PV plant.
















38


Summary of the study






Solar Energy Potential in
the Philippines
Available Solar Energy
Site for the Study
Technical
Analysis
Economic
Analysis
System
Sizing
Sizing of
Array
Sizing of
Inverter
Sizing of
Wires
Sizing of circuit
Breaker
Energy output
LCC
NPV
Self Finance Financed
Pay Back Period, NPV,
IRR, Energy Cost