Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 4
MONETARY MALPRACTICE Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Issue Warnings As
MONETARY MALPRACTICE Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Issue Warnings As

MONETARY MALPRACTICE

Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Issue Warnings

As we reported last month, Global Economic Risks have taken a noticeable and abrupt turn downward over the last 60 days. Deterioration in Credit Default Swaps, Money Supply and many of our Macro Analytics metrics suggested the global economic condition is at a Tipping Point. Though we stated "Urgent and significant actions must be taken by global leaders and central banks to reduce growing credit stresses" nothing has occurred even after the 19th disappointing EU Summit to address the EU Crisis. Some event is soon going to push the global economy over the present Tipping Point. The IMF recently warned and reduced Global growth to 3.5%. This is just marginally above the 3% threshold that marks a Global recession. This would be the first global recession ever recorded.

GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - AUGUST 2012

7/19/2012

1

August 2012 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long

All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com

MONETARY MALPRACTICE Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Issue Warnings GLOBAL

MONETARY MALPRACTICE

Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Issue Warnings

GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - AUGUST 2012

TIPPING POINTS

6

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK ASSESSMENT

6

SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

6

WE ARE HERE

6

TROUBLING MID-YEAR 2012 DEVELOPMENTS

7

MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS

13

WEF (WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)

13

IMF (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND)

20

OECD (ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION & DEVELOPMENT)

35

GLOBAL RISK

37

SCANNING THE GLOBE

37

NIELSEN: CONSUMER SENTIMENT

40

RISK: GERMANY, GREECE PLAYING ACCELERATING FINANCIAL WAR GAME

47

RISK: MARKET FRUGALITY & CREDIT MARKET RISK INDICATORS

49

RISK: GROWING CHINA CONCERNS IN 15 BULLETS

51

RISK: CRISIS MONITOR: GREECE

57

RISK: CRISIS MONITOR: SPAIN

60

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS

63

AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX

63

BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD (Updated)

64

BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD (Updated)

64

CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated)

65

CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated)

66

CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE (Reference)

67

ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX (Updated)

68

INFLATION RISK

- MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 (Updated)

69

INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY (Updated)

70

MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES (Updated)

70

COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES (Updated)

72

AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL

73

TIPPING POINTS: CHANGES

74

TIPPING POINT MAPPING: 2012 UPDATE

74

SHIFTS TO WATCH IN 2012

77

TIPPING POINTS: FOCUS - JULY 2012

84

I - EU BANKING CRISIS

84

II - SOVEREIGN DEBT

85

III - RISK REVERSAL

86

IV - CHINA HARD LANDING

87

V - JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION

88

VI - BOND BUBBLE

90

DRIVER$: RISK-ON - RISK-OFF ANALYTICS

91

1-

G10 MACRO SURPRISE INDEX

93

2-

CUMULATIVE GLOBAL PMI

95

3-

FINANCIAL TIGHTENING INDEX

97

4-

US NON-REVOLVING CONSUMER CREDIT

99

5-

IBES' RELATIVE GLOBAL PE RATIOS

100

6-

FSB 30 Index of Systemic Risk Names

102

7-

Swift Payment & Economic Activity

104

 

August 2012 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

2

Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long

All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com

GLOBAL MACRO 106 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 108 IMF WARNS: Japanese & Spanish Debt Unsustainable 108

GLOBAL MACRO

106

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

108

IMF WARNS: Japanese & Spanish Debt Unsustainable

108

IMF WARNS: Global Recovery Faltering, Reduces Global Growth to Just Above 3% Global Recession Level

110

BIS WARNS: Monetary Policy At Its Limits

112

GLOBAL GROWTH - Europe Continues to Force Global Growth Estimate Reductions

113

GDP Reductions - By Region

114

Manufacturing PMI - By Country

120

GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Europe has a Growing Sentiment /Confidence Problem

123

GLOBAL CREDIT MARKETS - Stable but Tenuous

130

GLOBAL INFLATION - Where Do these Deflators Come From?

132

GLOBAL TRENDS - Commodities and Brands Tell the Global Story

133

Cooper - Rio Tinto

133

Aluminum - Alcoa, Rio Tinto

135

Iron Ore and Thermal Coal - Rio Tinto

137

Consumable Brands - P&G

139

Parcel Volumes - FEDEX

140

Shipping - Baltic Dry Index

141

EUROPE - PLACED IN INTENSIVE CARE

145

MEDICAL CHARTS - Situation Critical

145

EUROSIS - A Terminal Disease

150

PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse

150

PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances

153

PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but

155

PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile

158

PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral

160

PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent

161

SUMMITS - "19th Nervous Breakdown"

162

FRANCE - Has Turned back to Socialism

169

ITALY - Cracks Impossible to Hide and Contain

171

IBERIAN PENINSULA - Spain & Portugal Imploding

173

SPAIN A LTRO JUNKIE: Monetary Malpractice - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support

182

MONETARY MALPRACTICE - How Long Will Germany & the Bundesbank Accept TARGET2 "Contingent Liability"?

189

CURRENT STATE OF EU BAIL-OUTS

195

ASIA - EUROPEAN FALLOUT NOW ACUTE

197

CHINA

201

Société General Sees a Likely Soft Landing!

201

SLIDES BELOW

201

CHINA PMI: 48.2. Fourth Straight Month of JOB Contraction

209

CHINA: Manipulated Statistics due to Upcoming Decade Long Regime Change

211

JAPAN: Manufacturing Output Falls

EU Just a Warm-up for the Main Event!

EMERGING MARKETS - ECONOMIC ENGINE STALLING

212

212

215

GLOBAL SLOWING: A Quickly Worsening Situation

215

RISKS: All on the downside for Asia

217

GLOBAL IMBALANCES: Demographic Headwinds

219

FLIGHT TO SAFETY: Becoming Pronounced

220

INDIA: Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation

222

US ECONOMY

223

THE GLOBAL MACRO - US OVERLAY

224

OVERWORKED & OVERSTRESSED

227

US INVESTMENT CYCLE

229

GORD'S BIG PICTURE ECONOMIC CYCLE

229

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

230

MONTHLY INDICATORS OF NOTE

230

 

August 2012 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

3

Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long

All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com

THE CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS 235 ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION 235

THE CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

235

ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION

235

JOBS - CONFIDENCE - CONSUMPTION - GROWTH CYCLE

237

JOBS

238

CONFIDENCE & SENTIMENT

248

CONSUMPTION

255

GROWTH

265

ECONOMIC GROWTH - GROSS DOMESTIC DISTORTIONS

268

FLAWED FORMULA

269

UNI-DIRECTIONAL INFLATION:

277

GROSS "REAL" ADJUSTMENT

279

GOVERNMENT GAMING

280

GDP DISTORTIONS - Government Credit & Channel Stuffing

280

CONSUMER STRENGTH - Government Transfer Payments in Disguise

281

CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT - Migrates To "Disability" (Welcome To Socialism!)

281

CONSUMER CREDIT - Hugh Shift in Credit from Revolving to Non-Revolving?

283

CONSUMER CREDIT - It's All Government Sponsored and Guaranteed

284

CONSUMER CREDIT - IS NOT WHAT IT APPEARS TO BE

285

FORCED TO LIE

293

MONETARY POLICY - INFLATION & MONEY VELOCITY

294

WHO'S TURN? - Fed, You're Up!

294

US FISCAL CLIFF - The Fed's Game Plan

296

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - SOME NEW TOOL

298

FLOATING RATE DEBT

298

FED MAY PREFER ANOTHER TWIST TO ADDING ASSETS

298

FINANCIAL REPRESSION - TOOLS [REFERENCE RESEARCH]

301

TOOL #1: MANAGED INFLATION

303

TOOL #2: INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVE SWAPS

305

TOOL #3: ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY (ZIRP)

306

TOOL #4: QUANTITATIVE EASING (QE)

306

TOOL #5: REPO DURATION

308

TOOL #6: OPERATION TWIST

308

TOOL #7: INFLATION TARGETING

309

RUSSIA & CHINA ARE DUMPING US TREASURIES [REFERENCE RESEARCH]

310

WHO IS BUYING US TREASURIES?

312

WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM?

313

FISCAL POLICY - US BUDGET

314

THE PROBLEM

315

THE RESPONSE

320

STATE OF THE UNION

320

US BUDGET

322

KEY DRIVERS - CATALYSTS OF CHANGE

326

EMPLOYMENT

326

REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME

334

BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE: Forced Towards Fraud

US RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

339

343

OVERVIEW

343

CURRENT SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

348

CURRENT HOME OWNERSHIP TRENDS

348

NATIONAL STATISTICS: PRICE

352

NATIONAL STATISTICS: EXISITNG HOME SALES

354

NATIONAL STATISTICS: NEW HOME SALES

356

RESEARCH OF NOTE

357

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

360

OVERVIEW

360

NATIONAL STATISTICS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

361

RESEARCH OF NOTE

362

CAPITAL SHRUGGED

367

 

August 2012 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

4

Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long

All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com