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THE BRITISH CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE The British Chambers of Commerce is the national body for a powerful and influential Network of Accredited Chambers of Commerce across the UK, a Network that directly serves not only its member businesses, but the wider business community. Representing 100,000 businesses who together employ more than 4.8 million employees, the British Chambers of Commerce is The Ultimate Business Network. Every Chamber sits at the very heart of its local community working with businesses to grow and develop by sharing opportunities, knowledge and knowhow. No other organisation makes such a difference to business as the British Chambers of Commerce. For more information visit: www.britishchambers.org.uk
DHL THE LOGISTICS COMPANY FOR THE WORLD DHL is the global market leader in the logistics industry and The Logistics company for the world. DHL commits its expertise in international express, air and ocean freight, road and rail transportation, contract logistics and international mail services to its customers. A global network composed of more than 220 countries and territories and about 275,000 employees worldwide offers customers superior service quality and local knowledge to satisfy their supply chain requirements. DHL accepts its social responsibility by supporting climate protection, disaster management and education. DHL is part of Deutsche Post DHL. The Group generated revenue of more than 51 billion euros in 2010. For more information visit: www.dp-dhl.com
FOREWORD
This is the fifth time that the DHL/BCC Trade Confidence Index has been released, and the introductions that I have written read like a timeline of the volatility in the eurozone. In Q1 2012 there were calmer times for the single currency area, with European Central Bank activism giving some confidence that the authorities were gradually taking a grip on the crisis. Since then, however, there have been two General Elections in Greece, Spanish lender Bankia provided a stark reminder of the precarious state of the financial system, and sovereign borrowing costs crept up to dangerously high levels yet again. There is a significant silver lining. While the EU is our main trading partner, there is a world beyond and UK exporters are working hard to trade with this world. This quarters TCI shows that firms have not been totally immune to eurozone woes, but still report rising overseas activity. This mirrors the trends we are seeing in the Office for National Statistics data too, showing that the value of goods exports to non-EU countries rose by 16% between May 2011 and May 2012, compared to a fall of almost 11% with EU countries. UK plc needs a reorientation to markets that are seeing strong growth, and that is happening. But to support nascent internationally trading potential the Government must realise that exporting is good for Britain and implement the recommendations that are within this report.
The results of this quarters TCI report show that exporters have seen their profitability improvements deteriorate in a relatively muted market. Although some of the factors we identify in the report, such as sales and profitability, have suggested expansion, it is the SME community, who we have found are seeing significant improvements in export orders, and have witnessed far greater increases in sales balances than their larger counterparts. This is promising news for the exporting community. Perhaps the most daunting stage of exporting is at the very start, during the planning and researching stages; so the knowledge that SMEs are making their mark internationally is very encouraging. Phil Couchman CEO DHL Express UK & Ireland This summer, of course, presents one of the greatest opportunities for SMEs to expose themselves to an international audience. The excitement and attention that the events over the next six weeks will attract for the UK is an opportunity not to be missed.
But brand exposure counts for little if businesses are not able to fulfil overseas demand by exporting to international markets, especially whilst the domestic market is muted. Its crucial that companies target countries overseas where the appetite for British brands is strong and the population is newly affluent. Our own sales show that Brazil has a healthy demand for luxury goods, for example, and that in Australia the e-commerce market is booming. Businesses willing to take the leap into overseas markets should seek support to maximise this once in a lifetime opportunity, by putting measures in place now that will potentially deliver sustained economic growth in the future.
INTRODUCTION
The DHL/BCC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) is a measure of the UKs exporting health. By analysing trends in trading activity and key factors of exporting firms performance, the TCI gives a truly comprehensive picture of the UKs internationally trading business community. The index casts new light on exporters levels of confidence and employment intentions, and paints a picture of regional exporting performance. Those wishing to obtain more information on the Indexs methodology and data sources are invited to contact the British Chambers of Commerce.
METHODOLOGY
The TCI generates its results from two data sources: Questionnaire responses submitted by over 1,000 exporters, derived from the BCCs Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). The QES is the largest and most representative business survey of its kind.
THE SURVEY Fieldwork for the survey was conducted between 21 May and 13 June. Results are split into the following firm size categories:
0-9 employees (micro firms) 10-49 employees (small firms) 50-249 employees (medium firms) 250+ employees (large firms)
Written4and4researched4by:
Unless otherwise stated, results refer to all exporters responding to the survey. Where results are split between the service and manufacturing sectors, this is stated clearly in the text. Results that are not split by firm size are weighted by the contribution of firm size to total exporting turnover. Results are represented by either a balance figure or a pure percentage figure. Balance figures are determined by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting decreases in a factor from the percentage of companies reporting increases. Where a balance figure is positive it represents growth; where it is negative, it represents contraction. EXPORT DOCUMENTATION DATA Many types of exports require supporting and commercial documentation to ensure the timely delivery of goods and timely payment. Chambers of Commerce administer this documentation, and have amassed a significant dataset around UK goods exports as a result. The TCI uses data collected from this process to show both an index of documentation and regional comparisons of exporting activity.
65 Petty France St. Jamess Park London SW1H 9EU Tel: 020 7654 5800 Fax: 020 7654 5819 Email: info@britishchambers.org.uk
www.britishchambers.org.uk
EXECUTIVE4SUMMARY
44 Manufacturers4report4a4big4increase4in4exchange4rate4concerns. 44 Export4orders4rise4for4service4firms,4but4fall4for4manufacturers. 44 Overall,4profitability4expectations4deteriorate.4
Q242012
The results of the Q2 2012 DHL/BCC Trade Confidence Index reflect that exporters are operating in a difficult environment. While overall export activity seems to be relatively buoyant, other indicators of domestic performance and employment intentions have weakened (although still do suggest expansion). What is perhaps most surprising about the promising export numbers is that the fieldwork period for this survey was conducted during another negative turning point in the seemingly never-ending euro debt crisis. Greece had just completed inconclusive elections (the fieldwork was completed before the electoral re-run on 17 June), and Bankia, Spains fourth biggest bank, required a bailout. But despite the broad export indicators delivering better than expected results, there were other signs in the bigger picture that suggested difficulties for internationally trading firms. Concerns about exchange rates jumped considerably, reflecting the fact that Sterling had strengthened by over 4% between the fieldwork periods of Q1 and Q2 2012, and manufacturers witnessed a deteriorating export orders result (see Figure One below). One other piece of positive news was that price pressures, including raw materials costs, had lessened. This report has consistently argued that the Government can do more to support Britains exporting potential, and the below recommendations would help those firms that want to, or are, trading internationally to fulfil their potential: 44 Create4a4business4bank4and4improve4service4in4existing4banks4to4address4issues4 around4access4to4finance:4Problems with accessing finance prevent firms from getting their foot on the exports ladder. In addition, high street banks must train front line staff to be able to explain state-backed financial products to their business customers. 44 Incentivise4the4take4up4of4training4and4mentoring:4The Chamber Network is playing a leading role in linking businesses to export training and trade missions, but the Government must play its part too by offering financial incentives for non-exporters that take up these services such as a reduced rate of tax on early exporting profits.
60 50 40 30 20 ----Recession-------Recession----
% balance
Manufacturing Services
KEY4INDICATORS
Q242012
44 The4increase4in4manufacturers4exchange4rate4concerns4is4the4second4highest4on4record. 44 Manufacturers4see4a4drop4off4in4export4orders;4service4firms4see4growth. 44 Employment4expectations4fall,4but4firms4are4still4anticipating4workforce4growth.4 EXCHANGE RATES The percentage of firms that reported exchange rates as more of a concern than the three months previously increased from 34% in Q1 2012 to 40% in Q2 2012. This is the highest result since Q4 2010, when 45% of firms reported worries. Figure Two shows the results over time. Micro organisations were the one category of firm size to report falling concerns, from 33% to 31%. Small sized firms (from 37% to 39%), medium sized firms (from 35% to 45%) and large firms (32% to 42%) all witnessed increased concerns. Manufacturing firms were driving the rise, with 57% of firms reporting worries about currency movements, up from 40% in Q1 2012. This is the second biggest quarter-on-quarter increase on record. The service sector reported a lesser increase of only one percentage point, to reach 29%, the equal highest since figure Q4 2010.
60
----Recession----
----Recession----
50
40
30
20 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12
EXPORT ORDERS The export orders balance rose from +24% in Q1 2012 to +30% in Q2 2012, the highest recorded figure since Q4 2010, shown in Figure Three. The rise was driven by the smaller firm sizes, with micro firms seeing a 24 point increase to +31% in Q2 2012, and small firms seeing an eight point increase to +31%. Medium sized firms reported no change, remaining at +29%, and large firms only experienced a one point increase, to +29%. This indicators strong rise can be explained by a fall in the percentage of firms reporting that export orders remained the same, which fell to 32% from 45% quarter-on-quarter. The percentage of firms reporting a decrease in export orders rose from 16% in Q1 2012 to 19% in Q2 2012, and the percentage of firms reporting an increase in export orders rose ten percentage points to 49% in Q2 2012. Overall, the rise in the export orders number was generated by the service sector. Manufacturing firms saw a fall in the balance figure from +28% to +12%; by way of contrast, services firms saw an increase from +21% to +41%.
KEY4INDICATORS
Q242012
40
----Recession-------Recession----
30 20 10
% balance
EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS The overall employment expectations balance fell three points to +19%, which is still very high by historical standards. This is certainly a positive feature of the results, as firms overall appear to have seen a drop-off in business activity and yet still expect to take on staff. Splitting the balance figure into its component parts reveals that the percentage of firms expecting to increase staff rose from 30% to 33%, the percentage of firms expecting to decrease staff also rose, from 8% to 13% (see Figure Four), and those that expected to keep staffing levels the same fell seven percentage points to reach 54%.
50
----Recession-------Recession----
40
30
20
10
0 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12
Both micro (from +15% to +12%) and large (from +25% to +16%) firms witnessed falls in the employment expectations balance figure quarter-on-quarter, whereas small (from +22% to +25%) and medium sized (from +24% to +29%) firms both witnessed increases. Looking at the sector breakdown both manufacturers and service firms revealed a fall in their balance figures: Manufacturers from +16% to +13%, and service firms from 28% to +24%.
FIRM4SIZE4BREAKDOWN4
44 The4export4sales4balance4increased4to4its4highest4level4since4Q242012. 44 Smaller4firm4sizes4recorded4big4improvements4in4export4sales4balances.44
Q242012
The balance of firms reporting an increase in export sales rose seven points to reach +32% in Q2 2012. This is the highest result since Q4 2010. What is evident from the firm size breakdown is that the smaller firm sizes witnessed much bigger increases than larger firms: Businesses employing 0-9 staff recorded a 22 point increase on their balance to reach a result of +35%; those employing 10-49 employees saw a 10 point increase to reach +33%; those employing 50-249 staff saw a three point increase to reach +37%; and, those employing over 250 people saw a one point increase to reach +29%. This is shown in Figure Five.
Figure Five: Quarter on quarter points increase in exports sales balance
25
20
Points increase
15
10
0-9
10-49
50-249
250+
In the manufacturing sector there were divergent movements. The micro firms result barely moved on the quarter, with a balance of +21% in Q1 2012 and a balance of +20% in Q2 2012. Small firms witnessed an increase in their balance result from +25% to +30%, medium sized firms saw a decrease of 11 points from +39% to +28%, and large firms saw a decrease from +24% to +16%. In the services sector there were increases across the board. The micro firms export sales balance rose a massive 29 points to return a result of +39%. The small firms export sales result rose by 15 points to return +36%. Medium firms returned a result of +45% in Q2 2012, a 19 point increase. For the very largest firms a smaller increase to +39% was returned, an increase of seven points.
DOCUMENTATION4DATA4
44 Despite4a4quarter-on-quarter4fall4in4documentation4volumes,4the4number4of44 returns4is4still4buoyant.4 NATIONAL DOCUMENTATION VOLUMES
Q242012
Despite documentation volumes falling off slightly on the quarter, the levels are still very high, with the index at its second highest level since records began. The most recent quarter on a year earlier saw a 7.55% increase in documentation volumes, but this could largely be attributed to the fact that Q2 2011 saw a big fall in the number of issued documents. PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Index number 2007 = 100 Most recent quarter on a year earlier Most recent quarter on previous quarter
114.7
7.55%
-1.58%
REGIONAL PICTURE The regional picture broadly reflects the national picture, with only the North East, Wales and Northern Ireland recording declines for both quarter-on-quarter and yearly comparisons. In London, the South East, North West, Scotland and the East Midlands there was a fall on the quarter, but a rise on the year in terms of volumes. The East of England, Yorkshire and the Humber, and West Midlands saw rises in documentation volumes on both measures.
Figure Six: % change quarter-on-quarter (Q2 12 on Q1 12) and change on the same quarter a year previously (Q2 12 on Q1 12) 25 20 15 10 Quarter on a year earlier Qtr on Qtr
% change
5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 London S East N West Scotland Y&H East W Mids E Mids S West N East Wales N Ireland
IN4FOCUS:4PROFITABILITY44
Q242012
44 Firms4expectations4of4profitability4improvements4deteriorate,4reflecting4a4difficult44 economic4environment. 44 The4results4for4improving4profitability4expectations4have4been4volatile4since4the4end44 of4the42008/094recession.4 Increasing profitability could be a result of moving into new markets, improving productivity or reducing costs, amongst many other things. The Q2 DHL/BCC TCI result shows that a net balance of +21% of firms responding to the survey felt profitability would increase in the coming 12 months. This is down from +30% on the quarter and is near the average result of +22% post the 2008/09 recession. The profitability result has been volatile since the end of the recession that began in 2008, with a range of results between +10% and +30%, and no consecutive quarters of improved results have been recorded, i.e. every improvement has been followed by a deterioration. Figure Seven represents this pattern.
50
----Recession-------Recession----
During the 2008/9 recession the profitability result went deep into negative territory, reaching its nadir in Q1 2009 at -44%. The average result was -13% covering the five quarters of this recession. In plain terms, this is further evidence that despite currently being in a technical recession as judged by official statisticians, this is a reflection of a sluggish and uncertain economic environment, rather than a large economic contraction. Profitability expectations fell across all firms sizes, but the larger the firm size the lesser the fall: Micro firms witnessed a drop of 17 points, from +34% to +17%; small firms recorded a 14 point drop, from +30% to +16%; medium-sized firms saw a fall of 12 points, from +33% to +21%; and, large firms saw a marginal drop from +26% to +23%. Looking specifically at sectors, manufacturers saw a drop from +28% to +23% and service firms saw a drop from +26% to +20%.
Ahmedabad
DHL FACTS
Gateways into the country: Number of Service Centres: DHL Zone: Delivery: Invoicing: 4 88 8 Door-to Door Service from DHL Exports and Imports are billed in Pounds Sterling in the UK
Transit Times
Transit times are affected by the dutiable value of the shipment, due to the expected Customs clearance time. Times are based on working days. UK to India - Example Transit Times New Delhi Mumbai Bengaluru Hyderabad Kolkata Chennai Documents: 2 days Dutiable Shipments: 3-4 days Documents: 2 days Dutiable Shipments: 3-4 days Documents: 2 days Dutiable Shipments: 3-4 days Documents: 3 days Dutiable Shipments: 4-5 days Documents: 2 days Dutiable: 3-4 days Documents: 2 days Dutiable Shipments: 3-4 days
EXPORTING TO INDIA
ESSENTIAL CUSTOMS INFORMATION
India may have some seemingly odd Customs requirements, for example the duty free clearance of only one shoe per shipment, but its simply a case of making sure the rules are followed and you have the right paperwork in place. 80% of all shipments are released by Customs in India on the day of arrival. DHL India exports and imports approximately 13,000 shipments every day.
If you have any questions about Prohibited or Restricted items, please call Customer Services on 0844 248 0844
It should also be noted that old and second hand goods are restricted for import into India. Capital goods (including IT equipment) with a Chartered Engineer Certificate stating that the goods have a residual life of more than 80% will be accepted. Support with shipping to India, license requirements and specific advice can be found at the links below. UK Trade and Investment India Business Link Getting Ready to Export to Individual Countries
Indian legislation provides two methods for assessing goods brought into the country by air express. The Express mode applies to shipments under 70kg that are not restricted for import, and is the method commonly applied to shipments sent with DHL Express. The freight mode exists for shipments above 70kg. Within the Express clearance mode, Indian Customs recognises four distinct categories of shipments:
Documents
This category includes general correspondence, legal documents and plans and diagrams that are for the purpose of transmitting information and not commercially produced for mass distribution. Items such as blank forms, magazines, journals, newspapers and shipping schedules are accepted as documents in limited quantities (up to 10). Items shipped in greater quantities or with potential commercial implications, such as advertising brochures, should not be sent as documents. Duty and taxes are not payable on items classed as documents.
ESSENTIAL PAPERWORK
All Indian exporters and importers of dutiable shipments must be registered with the Indian Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT). Registered shippers are provided with an Importer Exporter Code (IEC). All economic operators also need a Permanent Account Number (PAN). These codes should be obtained from your consignee (receiver) or supplier in India and should be clearly stated on the commercial/proforma invoice or on a separate document. Paperwork required for non-document shipments: 1. DHL Waybill 2. Commercial or Pro-Forma Invoice The invoice must be in English and should be on company letter head or include the company seal. It must include: Name and address of the seller/consignor (shipper with EORI / VAT number Name and address of the consignee (receiver), with IEC number where known Name and address of the buyer, if other than the consignee, with IEC number if known Place and date of issue Invoice number Country of origin Transport information, including vessel/ flight number/ courier name Terms of delivery and payment (INCO terms) Marks and numbers, number and type of packages Exact description of goods, with reference to HS tariff code Quantity of goods Unit prices and amounts, including net and gross weight Export licence number, or No Licence Required as applicable for UK regulations Import licence number, if applicable Signature Values must be in one of the following currencies: Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Danish Krone, Euro, Hong Kong Dollar, Japanese Yen, Norwegian Krone, Pound Sterling, Singapore Dollar, Swedish Krona, Swiss Franc, US Dollar. Please note that invoices stating No commercial value will be subjected to additional Customs checks. 3. GATT Declaration (For shipments valued above INR. 100,000) This declaration confirms the value of the shipment. It must be an original document. Please note, evidence of value must accompany the document, as detailed below. An incorrect declaration will result in the shipment being seized. 4. Evidence of Value Its good practice to include evidence of the shipments value to help prevent a dispute over the declared value. Acceptable evidence includes: Manufacturers International Price List or Internet Price List Product literature Manual and Catalogue, write ups or Technical Literature for laboratory or Electronic equipment 5. Letter of Authority This must be given by the Consignee to DHL to act on its behalf. It must be an original copy. Once on file this can be retained for future imports for the same consignee. 6. Packing List (signed) 7. Purchase Order 8. Any applicable Import License/Permit
ESSENTIAL PAPERWORK
To Import from India, the following documentation is usually required for Customs clearance in India: 1. Certificate Copy of Importer/Exporter Code (IEC) with Permanent Account Number (PAN), issued by the Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) 2. DHL Waybill 3. Commercial Invoice The minimal information required is: Name and address of the seller Name and address of the consignee,with EORI or VAT registration number wherever possible Name and address of the buyer / importer, if other than the consignee, with EORI or VAT registration number wherever possible Place and date of issue Invoice number Country of origin Terms of delivery and payment (INCOTERMS) Marks and numbers, number and type of packages, Exact description of goods, with reference to HS tariff code Quantity of goods Unit prices and amounts, including net and gross weight Import licence number, if applicable 4. Self Declaration Form (SDF) Original Copy Required 5. Shippers Letter of Instruction (SLI, shippers instruction to DHL on how shipment is to be cleared)
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