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MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
54,6% 87,1% NON-RENEWABLE RENEWABLE 45,4% 12,9% BRAZIL (2008) WORLD (2006)
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
57,7%
54,1%
42,3%
45,9%
46,6%
1998
Source: PNE 2030; EPE
2007
2030
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
15,5% 9,3% 3,7% 6,7% 0,8% 15,3% 5,5% 12,0% 11,5% 18,5% 15,9% 3,2% 9,1% 6,0% 1,4% 14,9% 6,9% 3,0% 13,5%
Coal Nuclear Hidraulic Firewood and Vegetal Coal Sugar Cane and derived Other Renewable
20% 10% 0%
13,6% 1,9%
1998
2007
Source: PNE 2030; EPE
2030
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
62
1,2
108
3,3
1,2
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
ETHANOL PLANTS
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
BIODIESEL PLANTS
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
CONVENTIONAL SOURCES Hydroelectricity ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE SOURCES Wind Power Biomass: co-generation electricity and thermal (uses: Vegetal > bagasse, rice straw, others; Organic waste; Biofluids - vegetal oils) PCH - Small Hidropower Plants Solar Photo-voltaic (PV) Tidal Power Geothermal Osmotic
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
Results
-
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
Onshore potential up to 300 GW offshore still to be evaluated; Renewable, reliable, clean and sustainable source for electric energy; Technology matured, prices down > economic viability; Raw material with zero cost. Only amortization of investment; Free and open access to the source > does not depend of foreign markets; Can stimulate regional development in deprived areas (NE); Complementary to hydropower plants, mainly in the NE. Optimize use of water resources; Allow the development of a new industry, acquiring of new technologies. But, technology should be adapted to Brazils specificities, to be able to produce electricity with greater capacity factor.
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
MAP OF THE WIND POWER - ELETRIC POTENTIAL IN BRAZIL
Source:ANEEL, 2005.
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
THANK YOU!
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
ENERGY PLANNING
MAIN DRIVERS THAT WILL IMPACT INTERNAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY, IN 2010-2017:
DEMAND ELASTICITY VS. GROWTH OF INVESTMENT, POPULATION AND GDP:
MEAN GDP ANUAL GROWTH: 5%* > Generalized growth on energy consumption that shall accumulate 47,7% in this period. MEAN RATE OF INVESTMENTS : 20% > Generalized impact, most on industrial energy consumption. MEAN POPULATION ANUAL GROWTH: 1,2% > Accumulated for the period: 10%. (Will add new 12 million consumers ) Major impact on residential consumption. MEAN HOUSEHOLDS ANUAL GROWTH: 2,2% > (Will add 9 million households). Consumer energy demand, specially electricity)
MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO
ENERGY PLANNING
ELECTRICITY DEMAND
GENERAL ELASTICITY-INCOME (GDP per capita): 1% of GDP growth : 1.3% demand growth EXPECTED EXPANSION OF ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN 2017: 221.000 GWh Need for new 25,5 GW of production capacity = 2 Itaips* over the next 8 years)