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Probability
Prof. Dhananjay M.Apte 98231 90939

Rolling Dice.
What is the possibility (probability) of getting 6 when rolling a standard Dice cube?

How many 6s are there? How many possible outcomes?

probability favorable outcomes = 1/ 6 possible outcomes

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Rolling Dice.
What is the P (getting 2 ) when rolling a standard Dice cube?

How many 2s are there? How many possible outcomes?

probability favorable outcomes = 1/ 6 possible outcomes

Spinner
What is the probability of the spinner landing on 1?

3 8
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Bunch of 52 playing cards. A card is drawn. Probability of getting a King. Ans. 4 / 52

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P (any one Heart

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) = 13 / 52 = 1/ 4 = 0.25 = 25 %
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Addition rule of Probability

Bunch of 52 playing cards. A card is drawn.

P (an Ace or
4 /52
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King )
4 /52

= 8 /52
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Mutually Exclusive ( Do NOT occur together) Events D.M.Apte 98231 90939

Multiplication rule of Probability

P ( a king from 1st bunch &

4 /52

a Heart from 2nd bunch)

13 /52
Independent Events

= 1/ 52
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If two Dices Red & Black are rolled, Find

P (6 on Red Dice

and

4 on black)

and

1/ 6

1/6

= 1/36
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- 1 = 51

P ( a king &
4 /52 X

a Queen) 4 /51

Dependent Events = 16/ (52 x 51)

P ( two kings)
= 12/ (52 x 51) 4 /52 X 3 /51 Drawing 2 cards at random from a single bunch of cards
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A throw of 2 Dices (one big and one small) is made. What is the Probability of getting 1 on a Dice and 4 on the other ?

&
another possibility

&

(1/6

1/6 )

+
= 1/18

(1/6

X 1/6)

=( 1/36 ) + (1/36) = 2/36

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A bag contains 6 white, 4 red, 10 black balls 2 balls are drawn at random. Find P( both the 2 balls are black)
Can be solved using conventional approach. Now using Permutations, Combinations Theory approach Total 20 balls.. 2 balls are drawn at random.. 2 Balls are drawn in 20 c 2 = 190 ways..(Total no of possibilities) Possibilities of both 2 balls are black = 10 c 2 = 45 ..(Favorable possibilities) Hence P( both the 2 balls are black) = 45/ 190 = 0.237
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A bag contains 8 white and 4 red balls 5 balls are drawn at random. Find P (2 balls are red & 3 are white)
Its tedious to be solved using conventional approach.
using Combinations approach

Total 12 balls.. 5 balls are drawn at random.. 5 Balls are drawn in 12 c 5 = 792 ways..(Total no of possibilities) Favorable possibilities (2 red balls) = 4 c 2 = 6 Favorable possibilities (3 white balls) = 8 c 3 = 56 Favorable possibilities (2 red & 3 white) = 6 x 56 = 336

Hence P (2 balls are red & 3 are white) = 336/ 792 = 0.424
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A bag contains 5 white and 8 red balls 3 balls are drawn at random.. for 2 times Find P (3 balls are white in 1st drawing & 3 are red in the 2nd )
Total 13 balls.. 3 balls are drawn at random.. 3 Balls are drawn in 13 c 3 = 286 ways..(Total no of possibilities) Favorable possibilities (3 white) = 5 c 3 = 10 Hence P (3 balls are white) = 10/ 286 = 0.0349 Now there are 10 balls3 balls are drawn 3 Balls are drawn in 10 c 3 = 120 ways..(Total no of possibilities) Favorable possibilities (3 red) = 8 c 3 = 56 Hence P (3 balls are red) = 56 / 120 = 0.4666

Hence P (3 balls are white in 1st drawing & 3 are red in the 2nd )
= 0.0349 x 0.4666 =
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0.0162
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Exercise
1) Drawing 6 cards at random from a single bunch of cards Find

P ( 3 kings &

3 Queens)

Hints
Number of ways 6 cards are drawn from 52 cards are 52 c 6 = 2,03,58,520 Number of ways 3 kings are drawn from 52 cards are 4 c 3.

2) With & Without out replacement

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NOT Approach
P (happening an event) = 1 P ( NOT happening the
event)

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Bayes Theorem

If a company buys 40% of the cars for its customers from agency I and 60% from agency II. If 6% of the cars from agency I and 5% of the cars from agency II break down, what is the probability that a car rented by this company breaks down?

Agency I
40% = 0.4
Prior Probability

Agency II
60% = 0.6
Prior Probability

6% = 0.06
Conditional Probability

5% =0.05
Conditional Probability

0.4 x 0.06 = 0.6 x 0.05 =

0.024
Joint probability

0.03
Joint probability

P (break down car is from Agency 1) = Posterior Probability P (car breaks down) = 0.024/ (0.024 + 0.03) = (.4) (.06) + (.6) (.05) = .054 = 5.4% Whats P of Agency 2?
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Probability Distribution
Binomial Poisson Normal

Weighted Mean

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5 coin tosses. Find probability that you flip exactly 3 heads

10 Possibilities

The number of Possible combinations can also be determined by using Combinations Theory.. n C r = 5 C 3 = 10
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= 0.3125

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5 coin tosses. Find probability that you flip exactly 3 heads

Use Binomial Probability Distribution Theorem.

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5 coin tosses. Find probability that you flip exactly 3 heads

Here Number of events (n) = 5 Number of times, the outcome (of getting heads) = 3termed as r Binomial considers two possibilities. 1) Success (Event happens)... Probability is termed p 2) Failure (Event do not happen)..Probability is termed q
In above problemgetting 3 heads is Success, Not getting 3 headsFailure. Probability of getting Head in a Coin (p) = Probability of NOT getting Head in a Coin (q) = 1-p = P = (n c r )

= 0.3125
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When to use the Binomial Distribution

A fixed number of trials Only two outcomes
(true, false; heads tails; girl, boy; six, not six ..)

Each trial is independent

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Problem
A dice is rolled 5 times What is the probability it will show 6 exactly 3 times?

n 5 7 20

r 3 3 2, 1, 0

p 1/6

q 5/6

Answer

A coin is tossed 7 times. Find the probability of getting exactly 3 heads.

If I toss a coin 20 times, whats the probability of getting 2 or fewer heads?

0.27

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Pascals Triangle
To determine n C r.we use Pascals Triangle

5 C 0 = 1 , 5 C 1 = 5, 5 C 2 = 10,

7 C 0 = 1 , 7 C 1 = 7, 7 C 2 = 21,

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Pascals Triangle
Edges are all 1s

To get the coefficient for expanding to the 5th power, use the row that starts with 5.

1 11 121 1331 14641 1 5 10 10 5 1 1 6 15 20 15 6 1 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1

Add the two numbers in the row above to get the number below, e.g.: 3+1=4; 5+10=15

(p + q)5 = 1p5 + 5p4q1 + 10p3q2 + 10p2q3+ 5p1q4+ 1q5

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Use of tables

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Poisson Distribution
Example-1 A rare

disease has an incidence of 1 in 1000 person per year. Find the probability of 0 incidences (cases) (x = 0) Consider population = 10,000
(Assume that members of the population are affected independently) The probability is 1 in 1000, i.e. 1/ 1000 = 0.001 The expected value = 0.001*10,000 = 10 (Termed as mean, m ) 10 new cases expected in this population per year
P( X P( X P( X
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(10) 0 e (10) .0000454 0! (10)1 e (10) 1) .000454 1! (10) 2 e (10) 2) .00227 2! 0)

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If new cases of West Nile Virus in New England are occurring at a rate of about 2 per month, then find the probabilities that: 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, to 1000 cases will occur in New England in the next month:
Example-2

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Poisson Probability table

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24 e 4!

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2

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Exercise
1a. If calls to your cell phone are a Poisson process with a constant rate =2 calls per hour, whats the probability that, if you forget to turn your phone off in a 1.5 hour movie, your phone rings during that time? 1b. How many phone calls do you expect to get during the movie?
Hint- Rate = 2 calls per hr..Expected Value = 2 x 1.5 hrs

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Answer
We have to find : P(X1) =1 P(X=0) =2 calls/hour..m = 2 x 1.5

P(X1)=1 .05 = 95% chance 1b. How many phone calls do you expect to get during the movie? E(X) = t = 2(1.5) = 3

xxx
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