July 27, 2012

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
12820.45 2877.51 781.9 1362.34

Thursday Close
12887.9 2893.25 777.11 1360.02

4 day change
67.45 15.74 -4.79 -2.32

4 day change %
0.53% 0.55% -0.61% -0.17%

ytd
5.49% 11.06% 4.88% 8.14%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 72.92% 27.08% 38.10% 9.70%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
1.91% 3.34% 0.90% 0.97% 0.74% 1.72% 0.32% 1.28% 0.67% 1.34% 0.24% 1.29% 0.85% 0.67% 0.91% 1.45%

MTD
-1.31% -5.35% -3.11% -3.09% -5.14% -0.49% 2.47% -2.19% -0.26% -1.45% -0.09% -0.51% 0.07% 0.48% -0.47% 0.74%

YTD
-0.72% -3.77% -6.23% 4.25% 1.60% 81.74% 10.96% 7.93% 14.01% -1.14% 13.40% 5.80% -10.09% 8.97% 5.34% -0.26%

Valuation
1.49% undervalued 20.06% undervalued 16.67% undervalued 6.37% undervalued 6.58% undervalued 11.27% undervalued 6.53% undervalued 9.16% overvalued 2.33% overvalued 7.62% undervalued 5.80% overvalued 2.65% undervalued 12.39% undervalued 3.13% overvalued 5.78% undervalued 10.61% overvalued

Last 12-M Return

-15.89% -24.85% -38.72% -10.80% -16.66% -4.95% -9.53% -8.66% -1.65% -17.80% -10.39% -11.93% -28.42% -0.26% -18.30% -4.13%

P/E Ratio
30.55 16.52 23.56 23.52 38.95 54.98 28.25 19.03 23.2 25.56 38.36 15.31 31.3 28.99 22.82 18.92

Sector TalkBasic Materials

Below, we present the latest data on leading Utilities Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
TROX VALE ABX SID AU

Name
TRONOX LTD VALE SA BARRICK GOLD CP CIA SIDERUR-ADR ANGLOGOLD LTD

Mkt Price
23.72 17.65 32.73 4.56 33.7

Valuation(%)
-75 -40.72 -36.54 -50.6 -28.32

Last 12-M Retn(%)

N/A -43.59 -33.37 -55.77 -21.55

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
TROX VALE KRO CLF ABX

Name
TRONOX LTD VALE SA KRONOS WORLDWD CLIFFS NATURAL BARRICK GOLD CP

Mkt Price
23.72 17.65 15.61 38.57 32.73

Valuation(%)
-75 -40.72 -40.08 -45.86 -36.54

Last 12-M Retn(%)

N/A -43.59 -46.96 -58.81 -33.37

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
GGC VALE LYB ABX UFS

Name
GEORGIA GULF VALE SA LYONDELLBASEL-A BARRICK GOLD CP DOMTAR CORP

Mkt Price
33.35 17.65 40.9 32.73 73.4

Valuation(%)
-55.54 -40.72 -3.92 -36.54 -37.62

Last 12-M Retn(%)

60.41 -43.59 24.54 -33.37 -18.87

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
CHMT EXK VGZ FBR IPHS

Name
CHEMTURA CORP ENDEAVOUR SILVR VISTA GOLD CORP FIBRIA CELULOSE INNOPHOS HLDGS

Mkt Price
13.09 8.31 3.13 7.61 57.38

Valuation(%)
300 300 262.6 101.59 37.62

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-28.16 -22.26 -7.94 -35.4 17.29

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As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on Expedia (EXPE). Expedia, Inc. is one of the world's leading travel services companies. The company provides wholesale travel to offline retail travel agents. Expedia, Inc.'s main businesses and brands include: Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Expedia Corporate Travel, Trip Advisor and Classic Custom Vacations. Expedia, Inc.'s companies also operate internationally with sites in Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands and China, through its investment in eLong.

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What's Hot
ValuEngine View Posts Huge Beat of S&P 500
The market's Summer doldrums continue and investors remain cautious. We saw a June and July which brought little change to the markets with uncertainty, volatility, and event-driven trading still ruling the day. Every bit of good news was canceled out by another spate of weak economic data, a poor jobs report, or more evidence of corruption at the institutional level on Wall Street. Fortunately, The ValuEngine View Newsletter bucked the trend this month and posted a significant gain. The ValuEngine View Newsletter handily beat the S&P 500 with a gain of 6.03% vs the benchmark's 0.66%%. That's a difference of 537 bps! We had three winners which gained 20% or more--Delek Holdings, Tesoro, and Western Refiningand a big gain from Spirit Airlines17.35%. Decent returns were also provided by Seagate, PDLI BioPharma, Citizen 's Republic, and MBIA. Our overall hit ratio was good this month with only 4 losers. Here are the results for June-July 2012:
Ticker ABV CRBC DK EL GE JAZZ LULU MBI MOG.A PDLI Company Name
AMBEV ADR CITIZENS REPUBLIC BANCORP DELEK US HLDGS ESTEE LAUDER GENERAL ELECTRIC JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS LULULEMON ATHLETICA MBIA INC MOOG INC A PDL BIOPHARMA

Entry Price 6/19/12

37.41 16.47 16.37 55.38 19.58 45.64 63.04 9.90 38.28 6.35

Exit Price
36.60 17.80 19.65 51.39 19.59 47.29 55.42 10.48 38.92 6.95

Change
-0.81 1.33 3.28 -3.99 0.01 1.65 -7.62 0.58 0.64 0.60

% Change
-2.17 8.08 20.04 -7.20 0.05 3.62 -12.09 5.86 1.67 9.45

Sector
CONSUMER STAPLES FINANCE TRANSPORTATION CONSUMER STAPLES COMPUTER AND TECHNOLOGY BASIC MATERIALS BUSINESS SERVICES RETAILWHOLESALE FINANCE FINANCE

Ticker SAVE STX TSO TXT WNR

Company Name
SPIRIT AIRLINES SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY TESORO CORP TEXTRON INC WESTERN REFINING

Entry Price 6/19/12

19.31 23.84 22.28 24.74 20.61

Exit Price
22.66 26.04 27.57 22.97 24.74

Change
3.35 2.20 5.29 -1.77 4.13

% Change
17.35 9.23 23.74 -7.15 20.04

Sector
MEDICAL CONSUMER STAPLES COMPUTER AND TECHNOLOGY OILS-ENERGY OILS-ENERGY

VALUENGINE VIEW PORTFOLIO

6.03
1,353.64 8.86

GSPC

S&P500

1,344.78

0.66

The ValuEngine View Newsletter is derived from the ValuEngine Aggressive and Diversified Growth Benchmark Portfolio Strategies. These strategies are the product of ValuEngine's academic research team and combine cutting-edge financial analysis and portfolio construction techniques with real-world Wall St. know how. The ValuEngine View Newsletter portfolio has 15 primary stock picks and five alternates and is re-balanced once each month. The ValuEngine View Newsletter is published near the middle of each calendar month.

The ValuEngine View Newsletter, 20 Carefully Selected Stock Picks which Represent the Most Up-to-Date Calculations of our Award-Winning Stock Valuation and Forecast Models Click the Image Below to Find out More

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.399) Monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value level are 1.568, 1.853, 1.869 and 2.502 with daily and semiannual pivots at 1.411 and 1.389, and weekly risky level at 1.356. A new record low yield was set on Wednesday at 1.377. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1603.1) Daily, monthly, and annual value levels are $1583.7, $1578.3, $1575.8 and $1388.4 with weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1621.3, $1643.3, $1702.5 and $1805.8. The 50-day / 200-day SMAs: $1587.9 / $1658.0. A weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $1596.1 shifts the weekly chart profile to positive from neutral. Nymex Crude Oil ($89.02) Weekly and semiannual value levels are $80.41 and $76.71 with the October 4th low at $74.95, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $92.04, $100.47, $103.58 and $107.63. Another annual risky level is $117.00. The Euro (1.2154) My semiannual value level is 1.1078 with monthly and daily pivots at 1.2168 and 1.2159, and weekly, semiannual, annual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2295, 1.2917, 1.4239 and 1.4583. A new low for the move was set at 1.2045 on Tuesday versus the June 2011 low at 1.1880. Major Indices Daily Dow:(12,676) Annual and semiannual value levels are 12,312 and 10,738 with daily, weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 12,756, 12,913, 13,473, 14,032 and 14,493. The Dow held its 200-day simple moving average at 12,531 on Tuesday and then closed back above its 50day at 12,608 on Wednesday.

S&P 500 (1337.9) My semiannual value level is 1059.7 with daily, annual and weekly risky levels at 1353.0, 1363.2 and 1366.7, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1418.6, 1539.8 and 1562.9. SPX held its 50-day simple moving average at 1332.8 Tuesday and Wednesday with the 200day at 1316.1. NASDAQ (2854) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2698 and 2527 with daily, weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2892, 2941, 3058, 3232 and 3348. The NASDAQ is between its 200-day simple moving average at 2829 and its 50-day at 2871. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2549) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2300 and 2239 with daily, annual, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 2598, 2603, 2634, 2729 and 2991. NDX is between its 200-day simple moving average at 2506 and its 50-day at 2564. Dow Transports (4934) Semiannual value levels are 4449 and 4129 with a daily pivot at 4918, and weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 5118, 5422, 5861, 6111 and 6044. The all time high is 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011. The Transports are below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 5078 and 5075. Russell 2000 (769.31) My semiannual value level is 686.25 with a daily pivot at 772.38, and weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 798.66, 834.07, 836.15 and 933.42. The all time high is 868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The Russell 2000 is below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 775.87 and 774.83. The SOX (367.13) My semiannual value level is 326.30 with daily and weekly pivots at 367.66 and 367.50, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 405.11 and 450.28. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011. The SOX is below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 370.22 and 391.31.

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Newsletters, Articles and Other Research Pieces Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports