Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Plan and Risk Asses

About This Workbook

This MS Excel Workbook was developed as a supplementary tool in support of the paper/presentation entitled "Weib Beta is Incorrect?" by David Nicholls and Paul Lein of the Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC), and presen Maintainability Symposium , 26-30 January 2009 in Fort Worth, TX. The paper/presentation and this spreadsheet are sudden-death test plans. The Workbook is available for download at the RIAC website or by contacting the Authors b

All Weibayes analysis equations used within this Workbook are taken from "The New Weibull Handbook - 5th Edition 1998, 2000, 2004 by Robert B. Abernethy. Copies of Dr. Abernethy's book may be purchased directly from the RIAC analysis, or to Weibull analysis in general, may be directed to Dr. Abernethy. The RIAC also offers Dr. Abernethy's W site formats. Visit the course outline on the RIAC website for more information. The new world standard for Weibull A August 2008, includes the Weibayes analysis methodology as described in "The New Weibull Handbook". Dr. Aberne committee.

All other equations and mathematical derivations used in our paper and within this Workbook are based on the standa This MS Excel Workbook is Copyright 2009 by Quanterion Solutions Incorporated. Link to the RIAC 'Demos & Downloads' Webpage Contact David Nicholls Contact Paul Lein Contact Dr. Abernethy Order "The New Weibull Handbook - 5th Edition" from RIAC View the RIAC Weibull Analysis Course Overview Purchase the Weibull Analysis IEC 61649 Ed. 2.0 B 2008 from ANSI

How to Use This Workbook

Select the 'Weibayes Data Input' Tab and input the following data elements: (1) the Design Life Requirement and the cycles or miles), (2) the Required Reliability at the Design Life Requirement, (3) the Estimated Average Cost of One R the Field, (5) an Assumed Beta 1 Value and (6) an Assumed Beta 2 Value. These inputs are used to generate a table a function of sample size and based on your inputs for Items 1 through 6. The only purpose for entering two assumed the beta value on the calculated Weibayes zero-failure test durations per sample at a fixed sample size.

Once the Weibayes Test Plan Table is reviewed, the User will need to input (7) the Sample Size to be used for the an the analysis is to be based. Note that the Workbook suggests a value for each. The Sample Size suggestion is base value of beta at the By life value (e.g., R = 0.90 represents the B10 life), as described in our RAMS paper/presentation. the lower of the values of the two Assumed Beta values input as (5) and (6). This suggestion is based on a more con negative risk impact if the "true" beta value is different than the assumed risk. The Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Durat user inputs for (7) and (8).

The 'Results' Tab provides a tabular and graphical representation of the Weibayes analysis results based on all user values around the user-input "assumed" beta value are performed to generate three useful sets of results: (A) the Des between the Design Life you think you demonstrated and what you actually demonstrated), (B) the Change in the Exp between the number of failures you think you'll be seeing based on your "assumed" beta and the number of additiona seeing based on the "true" beta value) and (C) the Unanticipated Cost Impact (i.e., the Estimated Average Cost of On unanticipated failures from result (B).

Based on these results, informed trade off decisions can be made regarding optimal combinations of design life requi sample for Weibayes zero-failure test plans in order to mitigate potential negative risk.

Once the Weibayes Test Plan Table is reviewed, the User will need to input (7) the Sample Size to be used for the an the analysis is to be based. Note that the Workbook suggests a value for each. The Sample Size suggestion is base value of beta at the By life value (e.g., R = 0.90 represents the B10 life), as described in our RAMS paper/presentation. the lower of the values of the two Assumed Beta values input as (5) and (6). This suggestion is based on a more con negative risk impact if the "true" beta value is different than the assumed risk. The Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Durat user inputs for (7) and (8).

The 'Results' Tab provides a tabular and graphical representation of the Weibayes analysis results based on all user values around the user-input "assumed" beta value are performed to generate three useful sets of results: (A) the Des between the Design Life you think you demonstrated and what you actually demonstrated), (B) the Change in the Exp between the number of failures you think you'll be seeing based on your "assumed" beta and the number of additiona seeing based on the "true" beta value) and (C) the Unanticipated Cost Impact (i.e., the Estimated Average Cost of On unanticipated failures from result (B).

Based on these results, informed trade off decisions can be made regarding optimal combinations of design life requi sample for Weibayes zero-failure test plans in order to mitigate potential negative risk.

About the Reliability Information Analysis Center (

The Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC) is a US Department of Defense (DoD) Information Analysis Center Center. The RIAC is operated by a team of Wyle Laboratories (Prime Contractor), Quanterion Solutions Incorporated Center for Risk and Reliability, the Pennsylvania State University Applied Research Laboratory (ARL) and the State U (SUNYIT).

Neither the United States Government nor the Wyle Laboratories contract team warrant the accuracy of the informatio cautioned that the data contained herein may not be used in lieu of other contractually cited references and specificat

d Risk Assessment Calculator

orkbook

/presentation entitled "Weibayes Testing: What is the Impact if Assumed s Center (RIAC), and presented at the 2009 Annual Reliability and on and this spreadsheet are limited in scope to Weibayes zero-failure and by contacting the Authors by email.

ibull Handbook - 5th Edition" by Dr. Robert B Abernethy, Copyright 1993, 1996, chased directly from the RIAC. Questions pertaining specifically to Weibayes lso offers Dr. Abernethy's Weibull Analysis training course in open-course or onworld standard for Weibull Analysis, IEC 61649 Edition 2 -2008-2, released in ibull Handbook". Dr. Abernethy served as the principal author on the IEC

ook are based on the standard Weibull equation and basic algebra.

Workbook

gn Life Requirement and the life units of that requirement (select from hours, ated Average Cost of One Repair (in dollars), (4) the Total Number of Units in are used to generate a table of potential Weibayes test durations per sample as se for entering two assumed beta values is to provide visibility into the impact of d sample size.

le Size to be used for the analysis and (8) the assumed beta value upon which mple Size suggestion is based on the intersection of the "assumed" and "true" r RAMS paper/presentation. The Assumed Beta Value suggestion represents tion is based on a more conservative approach to risk, as there will be less ayes Zero-Failure Test Duration per sample is automatically calculated based on

sis results based on all user inputs. Step-function calculations of "true" beta ul sets of results: (A) the Design Life Requirement Error (i.e., the discrepancy ), (B) the Change in the Expected Number of Failures (i.e., the discrepancy and the number of additional, unanticipated failures that you may actually be timated Average Cost of One Failure, multiplied by the number of additional,

binations of design life requirements, sample sizes and test durations per

le Size to be used for the analysis and (8) the assumed beta value upon which mple Size suggestion is based on the intersection of the "assumed" and "true" r RAMS paper/presentation. The Assumed Beta Value suggestion represents tion is based on a more conservative approach to risk, as there will be less ayes Zero-Failure Test Duration per sample is automatically calculated based on

sis results based on all user inputs. Step-function calculations of "true" beta ul sets of results: (A) the Design Life Requirement Error (i.e., the discrepancy ), (B) the Change in the Expected Number of Failures (i.e., the discrepancy and the number of additional, unanticipated failures that you may actually be timated Average Cost of One Failure, multiplied by the number of additional,

binations of design life requirements, sample sizes and test durations per

n Analysis Center (RIAC)

Information Analysis Center sponsored by the Defense Technical Information erion Solutions Incorporated (Core Operations), the University of Maryland atory (ARL) and the State University of New York Institute of Technology

he accuracy of the information and data contained herein. The user is further ed references and specifications.

Weibayes Zero-Failure Inputs and Test Duration Calculator

Required Reliability at Design Life 0.80

Design Life Requirement 2,000

Life Units Hours

Sample Size (N)

Assumed Beta 1 Value 1.70

Assumed Beta 2 Value 2.60

Required Hours per Sample for Weibayes Zero-Failure Test 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 4,833 3,215 2,533 2,138 1,875 1,685 1,539 1,422 1,327 1,247 1,179 1,120 1,069 1,023 983 946 913 883 855 830 806 784 764 745 728 711 3,561 2,728 2,334 2,089 1,918 1,788 1,685 1,600 1,530 1,469 1,416 1,369 1,328 1,290 1,257 1,226 1,198 1,172 1,147 1,125 1,104 1,085 1,066 1,049 1,033 1,017

27 28 29 30

695 681 667 654

1,002 988 975 963

and Test Duration Calculator

Estimated Ave Cost of One Repair ($) $ 875.00

Total Number of Fielded Units 5,000

Suggested Minimum Sample Size for Analysis 5 Input Sample Size to be Used for Analysis 3 Suggested Assumed Beta Value for Analysis 1.70 Select Assumed Beta Value for Analysis 2.60

Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Duration per Sample (Hours) 2,334

Analysis of Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Plan Results & Risk Impact Based on Assumed Beta Value
Inputs from Weibayes Data Input Sheet Weibayes ZeroDesign Life Units Assumed Beta Value Failure Test Duration per Sample (Hours) Hours 2.60 2,334 Required Reliability at Design Life 0.80

Design Life Requirement 2,000

Sample Size, N

Output Results and Risk Impact from Weibayes Zero-Failure Test Plan Percent of Design Life Requirement Actually Demonstrated at R = 0.8 59.8% 65.8% 70.7% 74.7% 78.1% 81.0% 83.5% 85.7% 87.6% 89.3% 90.8% 92.2% Design Life Requirement Error (Hours) at R = 0.8 -804 -685 -587 -506 -438 -380 -330 -286 -248 -214 -184 -157 Change in Number of Expected Failures at R = 0.8 310 293 276 259 242 226 210 194 178 162 146 131

"True" Beta Value

Actual Demonstrated Design Life (Hours) at R = 0.8 1,196 1,315 1,413 1,494 1,562 1,620 1,670 1,714 1,752 1,786 1,816 1,843

0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70

1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.90 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60

1,867 1,889 1,909 1,928 1,945 1,960 1,974 1,988 2,000 2,011 2,022 2,032 2,042 2,050 2,059 2,067 2,074 2,081 2,088 2,094 2,100 2,106 2,111 2,116 2,121 2,126 2,130 2,135 2,139

93.4% 94.5% 95.5% 96.4% 97.2% 98.0% 98.7% 99.4% 100.0% 100.6% 101.1% 101.6% 102.1% 102.5% 102.9% 103.3% 103.7% 104.0% 104.4% 104.7% 105.0% 105.3% 105.6% 105.8% 106.1% 106.3% 106.5% 106.7% 106.9%

-133 -111 -91 -72 -55 -40 -26 -12 0 11 22 32 42 50 59 67 74 81 88 94 100 106 111 116 121 126 130 135 139

116 101 86 71 56 42 28 14 0 -14 -27 -41 -54 -67 -80 -92 -105 -117 -130 -142 -154 -166 -177 -189 -200 -211 -222 -233 -244

ed on Assumed Beta Value

Total Number of Fielded Units 5,000

Estimated Ave. Cost of One Repair ($)

200

Design Life Requirement Error vs "True" Beta Value based on Assumed Beta Value
Design Life Requirement Error

$875.00

0 0.00 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

st Plan

Unanticipated Cost Impact at R = 0.8 $271,369 $256,308 $241,409 $226,671 $212,093 $197,676 $183,417 $169,317 $155,374 $141,588 $127,957 $114,481

"True" Beta Value

Change in Number of Expected Failures vs "True" Beta Value based on Assumed Beta Value
400

er of Expected Faiulres

300 200

Number of Expected Faiulres

Unanticipated Cost Impact (Thousands)

$101,159 $87,990 $74,973 $62,106 $49,389 $36,821 $24,401 $12,128 $0 -$11,983 -$23,823 -$35,520 -$47,077 -$58,493 -$69,770 -$80,909 -$91,912 -$102,779 -$113,512 -$124,111 -$134,579 -$144,916 -$155,123 -$165,202 -$175,154 -$184,979 -$194,680 -$204,257 -$213,712

200 100

0 0.00
-100 -200 -300

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

"True" Beta Value

Unanticipated Cost Impact vs "True" Beta Value based on Assumed Beta Value
$300 $200 $100 $0 0.00 -$100 -$200 -$300

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

"True" Beta Value

5.00

5.00

5.00