MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: DATE: RE: All Interested Parties Hart Research Associates August 1, 2012 Results Of Recent Maryland Poll On Marriage Equality

A new statewide poll conducted in Maryland by Hart Research Associates finds the marriage equality ballot initiative to be in a very strong position to pass in November. We interviewed 504 likely voters statewide, as well as 515 AfricanAmerican likely voters statewide, from July 24 to 28, 2012. (The margin of error for each survey is 4.5 percentage points). In the trial heat for the referendum vote, 54% of Marylanders say they would vote for the law that allows gay and lesbian couples to legally marry, while 40% say they will vote against this law. This 14-point support margin is a marked improvement over the eight points we measured this past March (51% vote for, 43% vote against). In addition to the 54% majority who would vote FOR marriage equality, we are also encouraged by the growing INTENSITY among supporters. Strong FOR support is now 43%, strong AGAINST is 35%an eight-point advantage for marriage equality. Previous polling, even those finding marriage equality with a lead, show a more EVEN divide between strong FOR and strong AGAINST votersin March of this year it was 39% strongly for, 38% strongly against. In a separate survey question, we asked Marylanders the importance of the marriage equality referendum. It is notable that among the near-majority of Maryland voters who rate the issue as EXTREMELY important, 66% would vote FOR marriage equality and just 33% would vote AGAINST. In the subgroup analysis of the referendum vote, support for the referendum has increased among both white and African-American voters. White voters went from favoring the referendum by 11 points in March (53% to 42%) to favoring it by 13 points today (54% to 41%); African-American voters went from opposing the referendum by nine points (40% to 49%) to being evenly divided between support and opposition today (44% to 45%).

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Vote For % All voters White voters African-American voters 54 54 44

Vote Against % 40 41 45

Marylanders positive movement TOWARD passage of the referendum actually is part of a larger dynamic broadly in favor of marriage equality, which bodes well for the vote in November. In August 2011, Marylanders were divided down the middle in their support for a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry: 44% favored such a law and 46% opposed it. Since that time, the legislature has passed and Governor OMalley has signed a marriage equality law, the issue has taken on new prominence due to the November referendum campaigns, and President Obama publicly has come out in favor of same-sex marriage. All this public debate has served to increase public support for marriage equalitywhile last year Marylanders opposed the law by two points, they now favor it by 13 points (51% to 38%), a large and significant shift in public opinion.
(Read numbers across)

Favor Marriage Law % 49 44 51

Oppose Marriage Law % 41 46 38

Differential +/+8 -2 +13

January 2011 August 2011 July 2012

The bottom line is that a November win for marriage equality at the ballot box in Maryland is well within our grasp. Both overall support and the INTENSITY of the support have increased, and, in particular, President Obamas strong affirmation of marriage equality has resulted in a durable shift in attitude among African-American voters.