Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

(data update 7/12/2011)

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & Planning
Erik Shuster

July 12, 2011

Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal-fired power plants that are under development. This report may not represent all possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate the potential that exists for installation of new coal-fired power plants. Additional perspective has been added for non-coal-fired generation additions in the U.S. and coal-fired power plant activity in China. Experience has shown that public announcements of power plant developments do not provide an accurate representation of eventually commissioned power plants. Actual plant capacity commissioned has historically been significantly less then new capacity announced. The report focuses on those coal-fired power plant projects that have achieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generation industry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regions of the United States.

The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of this information.
2

Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report provides a perspective of coal-fired power plants that are currently under development, with a focus on those having made significant progress toward achieving commercial operation The status of projects identified varies from project announcements to those under construction Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators of commitment of capital and human resources to actual development and follow-through to actual capacity additions is highly dependent on the market environment Plants that are permitted or under construction (Progressing Projects) reflect a more significant financial and human resource commitment to completion and offer a better perspective of the new generation capacity that may be forthcoming

Past Capacity Announcements vs. Actual

Figure 1
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Delays in Implementation

Capacity (GW)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity; the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.

Actual
4

2002 Report

2005 Report

2007 Report

2011 Report

Source: 2007 & 2011 data Ventyx Velocity Suite 2002 2005 data Previous NETL Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Reports

Latest Capacity Announcements vs. Actual

Figure 1a
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Capacity (GW)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements

Actual
Totals
5
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 2011 data 7/12/2011

2011
31 GW

2010
32 GW

2009
49 GW

2008
64 GW

14 GW

Current Coal-Fired Capacity Projects (Annual Change)

Table 1
General Status
Under Construction
Dec 2010

Number of Plants
Jul 2011
11 1 11

Capacity (MW)
Dec 2010

Net Change
-1 0 +3

Jul 2011
7,384 320 9,621

Net Change
-235 0 +3,175

12 1 8

7,619 320 6,446

Progressing Projects

Near Construction Permitted

SUB TOTAL Uncertain Potential and Timing Announced (early stages of development) TOTAL Commissioned this Period TOTAL Progressing and Commissioned
Status Listing Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced
6

21 36 57
-

23 30 53
2

+2 -6 -4
+2

14,385 17,385 32,259

-

17,325 13,844 31,168

835

2,900 -3,541 -1,091

+835

25

+4

18,160

+3,735

Description
Project is under construction. Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun. In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated. Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study.

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite Data reflects change between 12/13/2010 and 7/12/2011

Current Capacity Additions by Years

Refer to Table 1
Table 1 reflects the current status of coal-fired plant development activity as of July 12, 2011(December 13, 2010 through July 12, 2011) Progressing plants represent projects with status indicating permitted, near construction, or under construction Progressing plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward

commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and

industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects 835 MW (3 plants) have become operational during the 1st half of 2011 as of July 2011 There has been a net increase of 3,735 MW (+26%) of total Progressing and/or Commissioned projects through 2011 over Progressing projects in December (largely due to 8 units moving from Announced to Permitted)
7

Current Coal Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 2
10 9 8

Capacity (GW)

7 6 5
Commissioned in 2011 Oak Creek-Unit 2 (615 MW) Whelan (220 MW)

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

4
3 2 1 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Actual Proposed

Operational Dates
8
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (17/12/2011)

Currently Proposed and Forecasted Coal-Fired Capacity Figure 3

10 9 8 Capacity (GW) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Proposed-Progressing
9
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (12/13/2010) EIA AEO 2011, Reference Case

Virtually No New Coal in Reference case Following Several CCS Demos

Proposed-Announced

EIA AEO 2011 er

Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

Figure 4
18 16 GWs of New Capacity

14
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2010 was the largest build since 1985

10
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011)

Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

Figure 4b
18 16 14 12 Capacity (GW) 10 8 Additions Capacity (GW) Retirements Capacity (GW)

6
4 2 0 -2 -4

11
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011)

Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)

Figure 5
1
Commissioned in 2011 (as of June) Oak Creek-Unit 2 (615 MW) Whelan (220 MW)

24% of MWs removed represent Announced projects 66% of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants

Capacity (GW)

2011

2012

Proposed Online Year

Capacity Change Breakdown

2017

Removed Capacity

835 MW operational now removed from the list

-1

430 MW canceled 125 MW permitted cancelled 305 MW announcements cancelled 175 MW of new announcements added

-2
Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced Added Announcements

Removed Capacity Total Net Reductions (less operating) -255 MW

12
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (12/13/2010 and 7/12/2011)

Proposed Technologies of New Plants

(with Annual change)

Figure 6

Number of Plants

20
12

10

9 4

2 8 6

Announced Progressing

Table 2
Progressing Technology Listings Operational
(Since 2000) (Permitted, Near-, and Under Construction)

Announced

Total Proposed December 2010 15 13 11 18 Jul 2011

(Change)

December 2010

Jul 2011
(Change)

December 2010 10 9 4 13

Jul 2011
(Change)

PC Subcritical CFB PC Supercritical IGCC

13

31 12 7 1

5 4 7 5

4 (-1) 5 (+1) 8 (+1) 6 (+1)

9 (-1) 7 (-2) 2 (-2) 12 (-1)

13 (-2) 12 (-1) 10 (-1) 18 (0)

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite Data collected (12/13/2010); Current Report data collected (7/12/2011)

Geographical location by State: Coal-Fired Plants

(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)
Figure 7

14

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011)

Location by NERC Regions: Coal-Fired Plants

(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)
Figure 8

15

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011)

Specified Coal Ranks

All Proposed Plants
Figure 9
Proposed Plant Capacities (MW)

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

19,559 MW Generic Coal not shown on chart

16

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011)

Coal-Fired Build Rate

China and United States
Figure 10 90
Results are Stacked

80 70

234 GW of Undetermined Dates of Chinese Plants

Capacity (GW)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Online Year Planned no date (evenly distributed
over 4 years)

17

Source: USA data - Ventyx Velocity Suite (7/12/2011) China data Platts - UDI WEPPDB June 2011

Other Generation Development Activity

18

Proposed U.S. New Capacity

Figure 12
45
Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)

Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

40 35 30 25 20 15 10

5
0 2011 2012 2013 Coal 2014 NG Wind 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nuclear

19

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 7/12/2011

Status of Proposed New U.S. Capacity

Figure 13
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc 2018 Coal NG Wind Nuc 2019

Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Under Construction
20
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 12/13/2010

Near Construction

Permitted

Announced

Current Wind Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 14
45 40 35

Capacity (GW)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates
21
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 7/12/2011

Current NGCC Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 15
45 40 35

Capacity (GW)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates
22
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 7/12/2011

Current NG-GT Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 16
45 40 35

Capacity (GW)

30 25 20

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

15
10 5 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates
23
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 7/12/2011

Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 17
45 40 35

Capacity (GW)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Watts Bar Unit 2
Construction begun in the 1970s, suspended in 1988 at 80% complete, currently revived with completion due 2012.

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates
24
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 7/12/2011

U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Summary 1st half 2011

12/13/2010 7/12/2011

Two new coal-plants totaling 835 MW were Commissioned in the first half of 2011 Progressing/Commissioned projects by July 2011 have had a net increase of 4 plants; a net change in capacity of 3,735 MW (+26%) over Progressing projects in December 2010 175 MW of new capacity has been Announced and 430 MW have been canceled
Of 430 MW canceled plants, 71% were Announced phase and 29% were Progressing

Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being Announced to offset recent Commissioning

25