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THE
SETTING
decade
hu.trd and how soon one ccm Inse touch . \fy old
asxxiates at NCI had not ch :mRrd rnuch and were
pursuing the same JctlvlnC9 .lnd the s:nne vrndcuas as
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officers r .ho had not met their mark in previous
assignments or had carious personal problems . I also
became painfully suspicious that 1was being considcred in the same category .
Sonic events at this time complic :ned my reacfjustments . I was scheduled to give a paper on the San
Francisco clinical experiences in cancer chemotherapy
at the International Cancer Congress in Sao Paulo,
Brazil (8) . 1 was going to fulfill the chore as a matter of
pride . I was also scheduled to participate in the
Gordon Conference, an excellent way of becoming
reacquainted with cancer research and its leading
figures .
I proposed to Heller the creation of a branch of
biometry and epidemiology, for which I submitted a
research plan . This was accepted, though the branch
remained in the Office of the Director rather than
becoming part of the research arm of NCf . In this
anomalous place of the table of organization I never
did participate in staff meetings or other activities of
the intramural program, and my reports were not
incorporated with other research activities . There were
good aspects of the arrangement, however . I went
directly to Heller for budgetary needs and had a free
hand with all matters, as far as one can reconcile
bureaucratic processes with freedom .
Little could be done with the insecure officers that
had accumulated under Gilliam . I redefined their
assignments and set a time schedule by which their
tasks were to be completed . Gilliam resented the
interference and pointed out more deficiencies in the
data and analytical methods . Finally, the pressure
resulted in his requesting transfer to Cancer Control,
and Heller acceded .
The statisticians had a completely different set of
personnel problems than the so-called epidemiologists .
Here was a group of brainy, active people restive under
their restraints . They needed assurance and opportunities to spread their wings . It came as a surprise to them
that they were to choose their own problems as well as
to provide consultative services and that they were to
write their own papers rather than prepare them for
others .
In the NIH environment, a doctorate was a requirement for acceptance to full membership on the staff,
and none of the statisticians had made this rite of
passage . Nathan Mantel, a mathentatician with a
baccalaureate degree, was consultant to scientists with
several doctorates to their names, and later Jerome
Cornfield became head of the biometry department at
Johns Hopkins without any degrees beyond the baccalaureate . But for several, arrangements were made at
the University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health
or at local universities to acquire further formal education . A half-dozen bona fide doctors of science thus
arose from the group . Even in teuospect, the main
yield of such training was formal acceptance and selfconfidence rather than additional expertise .
It should be remembered that during the 1950's,
statistics and epidemiology were not considered quite
legitimate scientific disciplines in the biomedical sci-
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1298 Shlmkin
doing not much bt'ner . Heller gathered his laboratory
ehirfs and receiced more denials than support . Dr .
M- J . Shear, an expert on carcinogenesis, and Dr .
Harold L . Stewart, the head pathologist, refused to
recognize epidemiologic data that were not confirmed
in laboratory animals . Dr . Wilhelm C . Hueper thought
that occupational causes of lung cancer were of greater
importance and needed public health controls more
than a social habit that represented individual choice .
Even the epidemiologists, with Gilliam in the lead,
voiced more doubts (24, 25) . Thus no consensus of
scientific opinion was available for Heller to present to
his superiors .
It is easy to take recourse in paranoia when one
meets opposition . Why would respected, secure scientists such as Shear, Stewart, and Hueper oppose the
obvious fact that tobacco smoking caused lung cancer
in man? Years later, I attributed their stance to a
Kuhnian explanation (26), that their paradigm of cancer research simply did not encompass the epidemiologic method . Pathologic morphologists of the generation of Stewart and Hueper did not use quantitation ;
qualitative recognition of visual patterns was their
main stock in trade . Shear, one of the pioneers in
chemical carcinogenesis, never did apply quantitative
bioassay procedures to his research .
Whether the same explanations apply to the opposition to the tobacco-smoking facts by such giants as Dr .
C. C . Little and Dr . R . A . Fisher is conjectural . Little
preferred support of research by'private enterprise
tycoons rather than by the Government and could not
resist the blandishments offered by the tobacco interests . Fisher, along with Dr. Joseph Berkson, pointed
out that the epidemiologic data lacked rigorous biometric design and was unacceptable to him unless the
world of the real conformed with the world of theory .
The statistical group at NCI continued to add data
on the subject . A transfer of funds to the Bureau of the
Census allowed a systematic assessment of tobaccosmoking patterns in the United States, the first study of
the distribution of the habit in our population (27) . A
retrospective study of lung cancer in women sustained
the relationship to smoking (28) . Dorn's inquiry (29)
on 250,000 veterans fully substantiated the prospective
studies of Doll and Hill (20) and Hammond and Horn
(21). And a group of us, with Cornfield in the lead
both aipnabeticaity and inteiiectuaify, w ote a discus=
sion (30) of the evidence and the questions that remain
relevant ; this has found its way into several compendia
of papers on social problems .
Despite the lack of agreement at NCI, the Surgeon
General, at that time Dr. Leroy E . Burney (31), did
issue a statement on July 12, 1957, declaring : "The
Public Health Service feels the weight of the evidence
is increasingly pointing in one direction : that excessive
smoking is one of the causative factors in lung cancer ."
He then ordered a fuller account to be prepared for his
signature ; this task was assigned to Dr . Lewis Robbins,
newly appointed to cancer control activities in the
Bureau of State Services . Over 20 drafts were prepared
before the paper finally appeared in the November 28 .
JNO . t'OL . 62, NO. 5, MAY 1979
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Realistically, these goals were unlikely; thus our immediate and minimum aim was a survey of hospitals
for the telation of the presence of S . haernatobium ova
in the urine and bladder cancer .
attention .
Mustacchi returned to private practice in San Francisco but continued his interests in cancer epidemiology and published contributions on the epidemiology
of leukemia and testicular tumors . I explored the
possibilities of mounting laboratory research on S . haematobium carcinogenesis and found a receptive ear at
the Southwest Foundation in San Antonio, Texas,
which had a primate colony. A contract proposal was
developed but could not be activated because of fiscal
restrictions . By the late 1960's, long after my departure
from NCI, Dr . Robert E . Kuntz and his coworkers (38)
at the Foundation did succeed in infecting primates
with S. haernatobium and reported in 1972 that two
invasive bladder cancers had been induced .
Scientific and humanitarian opportunities in this
area, now more obvious and important, are as distant
as ever from realization . They await the political and
economic stability in the Near East that continues to
be a possible fuse for a world conflagration .
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cnd by others made such arrangements most difficult .
Ry kecpinG our eves open, however, we would find
an occasional opportunity . Exploitation of such opporurnities del>cnded ufon the availability of medical
officers and statisticians to undertake the necessary
analyses . Such analyses, for us, demanded a return to
the original records .
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his approach, and this field did not arouse the controversy evident in breast canuer surgery .
A third clinical foray, undertaken by Koppel and Dr .
John C. Bailar Ill, explored the rcLnionship of adenomatous polyps of the colon to cancer (43) . Sprau,
Ackerman, and Moyer (44) of Washington University
in St . Louis had cast serious doubt that polyps were a
premalignant stage of cancer . If indeed cancer did arise
from polyps, a population deprived of polyps should
have a lolver risk of colorectal cancer . We found such a
population among patients of the Lahey Clinic in
Boston, where the polypectomy patients had been
carefully followed, but not patients found free of
polyps . Over 4,000 polyp-free patients were traced ; 19
had developed colorectal cancer-very close to the 22
that were predicted on the basis of the age distribution .
The incidence of cancer among 307 patients who had
adenomatous polyps removed also was close to that of
the general population . Thus no clear relationship of
adenomatous polyps and cancer of the lower intestine
was found, and further doubt was cast on the adenomatous polyp as a cancer precursor . The important
point, however, was that removal of adenomatous
polyps did not reduce the risk to colorectal cancer and
thus could not be used as a definitive preventive
measure .
In my capacity as Assistant Chief for Clinical Activities of CCnSC . I suggested to Endicott the desirability
of creating a clinical data base with which the eventual
outcomes of more formal clinical trials could be
compared . The suggestion lay in abeyance until such
an activity was deemed appropriate and when some
funds became unexpectedly available (47) . The statistical unit under Cutler went to work immediately . The
first steps involved agreements by telephone for a
meeting of representatives from established cancer registrics and the creation of an informal organization . A
definite goal of reporting the data at the 1956 National
Cancer Conference was-a useful stimulus ; travel money
and minimum support to enable registries to provide
data were the essential requirements that made it
feasible .
A series of reports on 66,000 cancer patients was
presented at the 1956 meeting (48), and these reports
were expanded to double that number in a more
leisurely publication later (49) . The data were derived
from three central State registries and seven hospitals
throughout the country . As usually happens in such
activities, two large potential sources, the Veterans
Frevar 1 .-Meeting of the Ad Hoc Group on International Cooperation in Evaluation of End Results at Domus Medicus, Copenhagen, Lknmark, October 5-6, 1959 . Front roup, IrJI to right : M . A . Schneiderman (U .S .A .), A . McKenaie (United Kingdom), A . Korpela (Finland),
H . E . Pogosianr (U .S.S.R .), S4 . P . D. Logan (United Kingdom), M . B. Shimkin (U .S .A .). W. Haensxd (U .S .A .) . Second roro, ttJl to right :
E . T . Kremontr (U .S .A .), N . Ringerte (Sweden), X . Cellc (France), B . Sorensen (Denmark), W . I . Lourie, Jr . (U .S .A .) . K . L-ockwood (Den
mark), K . Magnus (Norway), J . Leguarinais (France), N . N . Blokhin (U .S .S.R .), E. Pedersen (Korway), E . A . Saxin (Finland), J . Clemmesen
(Denmark) .
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reprrsentalisrs of cancer registrics from Denmark . EngI :rnd, Franu, Norway, Firrl .urd ind ttre United States .
AGrecments among international viewpoints are difficult to achieve, but ttre coordinating work of Afr .
11'illiam Lourie and others resuhed in a meeting in
Norway in 1963, where the results were presented and
eventually published (50) . Further developments in this
area were aborted by funding restrictions for international activities .
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recruited to head the activity, was stationed in Nfichigan in cnder to conduct survcys and epidemiologie
studies on cattle lymphoma . lie, with Dr . William A .
Priester and Dr . James Peters, also compiled a standard
nomenclature of veterinary pathology that is a landmark in the field (55) .
A frightening possibility of an iatrogenic induction
of cancer in man arose when Dr . Bernice E . Eddy
obtained sarcomas at the site of injection of simian
virus 90 (SV-40) into hamsters (56) . SV-40 was an
indigenous virus of monkeys from which kidneys were
obtained for the growth of poliomyelitis virus ; the
killed-type vaccine was prepared from this virus . Eddy
was on the staff of the Division of Biologics Control,
then under NIH, and she was a collaborator of Dr .
Sarah E . Stewart (57) in the polyoma work .
The news shuddered through the higher echelons of
NIH, which already had encountered too many problems with polio vaccines, and I was instructed by
Endicott to do something about it . I first talked with
the Director of Biologics Control, whose demeanor
clearly indicated that he would have preferred to be
elsewhere . Samples of the polio vaccine were still
available, and it had already been determined that
about half of the lots were contaminated with SV-90 .
The lots of vaccine used in the polio immunization
program were distributed by counties and an excellent
reconstruction was made of the geogrzphic areas where
such lots were used as well as the cohorts of children
who received the vaccines .
Further inquiry, which related the frequency of
leukemia and other neoplastic disease and all causes of
mortality to the virus-contaminated versus virus-free
vaccines, was conducted by Dr . Joseph F. Fraumeni, Jr .
(58). Everyone breathed a sign of relief when no
evidence could be reported, at least at 7 years following
the vaccinations, of increased cancer or other untoward
effects among the children who hacJ received SV-90contaminated vaccines .
Eddy was not exactly thanked for her research, and
neither she nor Stewart was ever adequately recognized
for her achievements . In fact, many times they were
not even believed until someone had repeated their
work and reviewed their pathology sections .
The epidemiologic features of the fish disease involved a change in the method of raising the animals .
Before t1'orld War II, hatchlings were fed offal from
slaughter houses ; this unpleasant operation was terminated as soon as the fingerlings could be released into
streams . The food processing industry then devised
convenient pellets of fish meal with all necessary
constituents on which the fish thrived . Now the fish
could be kept in hatcheries until they reached adult
size and were released for ready and easy catch by the
fishermen .
Thal the occurrence of trout hepatoma was indeed
related to food sources was quickly verified . One large
company provided food pellets to which practically no
hepatomas could be traced ; another source was so
carcinogenic that it became known as the "hot diet ."
Hueper (60) immediately added his observations to
the problem, but it needed more intensive study not
only because of its scientific interest but because the
economic interests now involved legal and political
allies . Weekly memoranda on the developments, ordered by the Office of the Surgeon General, were
relayed through three layers of ambitious memorandum carriers .
The laboratory facilities at NIH were not adequate
for research on fish, and it seemed preferable to place
the endeavors in a center devoted to fish problems . The
Western Fish Nutrition Laboratory in the State of
Washington was chosen ; this activity of the Department of the Interior was headed by Dr . John Halver . A
transfer of funds enabled Halver to begin unraveling
the carcinogenic factor in food to which the fish were
exposed (61) .
The usual hepatocarcinogenic contaminants were
promptly ruled out, but in the process the rainbow
trout were found to be as susceptible as rats to
hepatomas fbllowing exposure to azo dyes, aminofluorene, and urethan . A metabolic chamber for fish,
which allowed collection of urine, was devised for
these studies . After more meetings and consultations, it
was decided that actual fractionation of carcinogenic
Food was required, and the primary hypothesis was
that polymerized fats were the culprits .
A parallel search of the literature and consultation
with fdod chemists indicated that the epidemic of
hepatonecrosis in English poultry w as traced to peanut
meal in the diet, the peanuts having been imported
hepatomas (62) .
Two teams of chemists, one in England and one at
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), raced
to identify the carcinogenic product of the mold,
'.ocalized to compounds that fluoresced blue and green
under ultraviolet light .
f:raybill (63), my special assistant with expertise in
food chemistry, arranged for a rapid -allocation of
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correct information, humans would do what was right .
Informed private practitioners were his target, and
front thence all blessings would flow . The cssential
approach was the traditional medical one: detection of
overt disease at an "earlier" stage . Prevention by
avoidance of causative exposures or the identification
of precursors became of primary importance for Robbins much later, when he developed Health Hazard
Appraisal (8l) .
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Flevzr 3-Staff of the Field Studies Area, NCI, Bethesda, Md ., 1963 . Front row, left lo zight : R . J . Taylor, J. H. Weisburger, R . w . Miller,
E . Young, M . B . Shimkin, E . Nadel . Second row, left to right : J . Mahoney, {4. Haenszel, S . J . Cutler, J . C. Bailar III, H . Falk, M . A.
- Schneiderman, P. Kotin . H . F . Kraybill, O . .Scott .
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propenics that lent themsel .rs to three-dimensional
eomparisons rather than dependence on the classical
tcchniques .
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ctents, however, stemming from the scientific eonsensus that virology would solve the enigma of neo-
plasia,
really
peripatetie
contract
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Flara[ 5 .-Audiencc at ihe Fourth National Cancer c :nnference, jointly sponsored by ACS and NCI and held September 13-15, 196Q in Afim
neapolis, Minnesota . The conference was attended by over 1,600 physicians, research scientists, and c :mcer specialists from the United Siates
and Europe .
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and lung cancer . New evidence and discussion of some questions. J Natl Cancer Insr 22 :173-203, 1959
(31) Bt:RNrv LE : Smoking and lung cancer : A statement of the
Public Health Service . JAMA 171 :1829-1837, 1959
(32) .BEEBE G11' : Lung cancer in World War I veterans . Possible relation to mustard-gas injury and 1918 influenra epidemic. J
Nail Cancer Inst 25 :1231-1252, 1960
(33) NFUeLRCER AIB: Smoke Screen . Tobacco and the Public Welfare . Englewood Cliffs, N .J . : Prentice-Hall, 1963 1
(34) ANoNYStoesr U .S . Gorernment cancer prober eyes cigarette ads .
Advertising Age 5-4 (January 29), 1962
(33) BRESLOK L, WILNER D, AGRAN L, et at : A History of Cancer
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nogrniriiv of lyophilired Schistosoma . J Nail Cancer Inst 16:
471-474, 1955
M'llh CC)liJro3oma
825-812, 1958
(38) Kl'NTC RE, CHE6vrR AW, 61YERS BJ : Pro)iferative epithelial Itsions of the urinary bladder of nonhuman primates infected
a-ith Srhislotoma haemafobium . J Nail Cancer Inst 48 :223235 . 1972
Simple and radical masrecmmy for breast cancer : A reanalysis of Smith and
Meyer's report from Rockford, Illinois . J Nail Cancer Inst
27 :1197-1215, 1961
MAn-fEL N : The detection of disease clustering and a generalized regression approach . Cancer Res 27 :209-220, 1967
BORMAN GS .
,in hamsters by injection of rhesus monkey kidney cell extracts . Proc Soc Exp Biol Med 107 :191-197 . 1961
(57) STEWART SE, EDDY BE, BORGESE NC : Neoplasms in mice
inoc-
(86)
(89) PREHN RT : Tumor-specific immunity to transplanted diberv(a,h)anthrarene-induced sarcomas . Cancer Res 20 :16141617, 1960
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