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May 3, 2012
Agenda
Financial sector deleveraging in Europe How are banks responding on the asset side Bank deleveraging-Structuring U.S. background and market data
Poll question # 1
What do you see as the single most pressing challenge facing European banks today?
Improvement in shareholder value and Return on Equity (ROE) Increased capital adequacy requirements Liquidity and funding pressure Reduction in risk weighted assets (RWA) Balance sheet reduction Not sure
From U.S. sub-prime to global financial crisis Euro zone sovereign crisis coupled with financial crisis 2.2trn in non-core and nonperforming European banking assets Governments and regulators seeking solutions
940
1,241
Non-core
Non-performing
Note: Figures as at 31 December 2011 Source: IMF, EIU & Deloitte Analysis; Prepared by: Deloitte UK
NC
400 349 102 132 71 152 2 5 28 1,241
NPL
129 116 179 78 93 11 154 48 46 15 25 21 9 7 5 3 1 1 940
Note: Figures as at 31 December 2011 Source: IMF, EIU & Deloitte Analysis; Prepared by: Deloitte UK
179
No tes: (1 NC = No n-co re; NP L = No n-perfo rming lo ans; (2) Central & Eastern Euro pe includes ) B ulgaria, Czech Republic, Esto nia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, P o land, Ro mania, Slo vakia and Slo venia. So urce: IM F, EIU & Delo itte A nalysis; P repared by: Delo itte UK
154
129
Germany
Others
Note: Figures as at 31 December 2011 Source: IMF, EIU & Deloitte Analysis; Prepared by: Deloitte UK
Deleveraging and asset divestment have a role to play in responding to each of the above challenges
Poll question # 2
What is the single most common response by European banks to the recapitalization and deleveraging issue?
Capital raising via rights issues, private raises, etc. Conversion of lower quality capital and debt instruments to CT1 eligible capital Establishment of a non-core asset strategy Separation of core from non-core assets Design of a structured wind down plan Not sure
Lending
Legacy assets
CIB / markets
CEE
Greece / Ireland
Seller
Eurohypo AG BNP Paribas Bank of Ireland
Buyer
Wells Fargo & Blackstone Wells Fargo Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp Confidential
Santander
$1.2bn
Capital One Financial Corp Lone Star, J P Morgan & Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Blackstone & Wells Fargo
Bank deleveragingStructuring
Poll question # 3
What type of transaction activity do you expect to see more of in the next 12 months?
Private asset sales Public asset sales Structured transactions Capital raising All of the above Not sure
Poll question # 4
Of the following five (5) ways that the Eurozone debt crisis could affect the U.S. which one is the largest concern for your organization? U.S. banks are 'tethered' to those in Europe A potential threat to U.S. exports U.S. companies' investments in Europe at stake The potential impact on individual investors A dramatic effect on the 2012 election Not sure or Not Applicable
In U.S., not much happening in election year but look for lots of proposed budget and regulatory changes in 2013 Bank stress test results will require increased Tier 1 capital which will result in additional asset sales Repayment of TARP funds needs to continue for 2nd tier banks Large banks need to add performing real estate and C & I loans to their balance sheets quickly Potential external shocks to system include a blow-up in Europe and other geopolitical issues
Activity in U.S. marketplace
Wells Fargo has acquired loans from
Anglo Irish Allied Irish Bank of Ireland
JP Morgan Chase has acquired loans from Anglo Irish US Bank, GE Capital, CIT, and others are actively seeking loans. Active purchasers of distressed debt: Blackstone, Lone Star, Starwood Looming maturities
Copyright 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
350.0
$72.4 $74.3 $72.3 $23.4 $24.5 $23.6 $53.3 $62.4 $66.6 $22.9 $24.1 $101.1 $112.2 $65.5 $59.0 $51.8 $22.9
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
$213.1
$209.8 $182.3 $150.0 $112.3
$133.0
100.0
50.0
$25.7
$85.1 $66.3
$32.2
0.0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Banks
Prepared by: Deloitte LLP Source: Trepp LLC, 4Q11 Update
CMBS
Life Cos
Other
As of December FY11, outstanding distressed assets in the U.S., including loans and REO, decreased 2.9 percent YoY to $171.9 billion. Total distress was $350.8 billion.
200.0
150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 REO 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11
Troubled
Restructured
Resolved
By property type, Office accounts for the highest distress ($41.0 billion).
Distress by Region
6.6% 13.1% 28.3%
Western U.S. continues to lead the volume of distress assets, with Las Vegas recording the highest distress.
Southwest
14.0% Northeast Midwest 17.6% 20.7% 22.1%
16.0%
Mid-Atlantic
Prepared by: Deloitte LLP Source: Real Capital Analytics (RCA), January 2012
Copyright 2012 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Poll question # 5
Where do you believe may hold the best risk-return opportunity with either performing or non-performing loan portfolios from lending institutions? U.S. banking institutions with European assets U.S. banking institutions with domestic assets European banking institutions with European assets European banking institutions with domestic assets Not sure
Debt Portfolios
Corporate loans Commercial property debt Residential mortgages Unsecured consumer debt Asset finance loans
Buyers
Strategic buyers (i.e. banks, pension funds, life companies) Financial buyers (i.e. Private Equity/Hedge Funds) Real estate funds Debt purchasers
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Contact information
Thomas Kaylor Principal Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP + 1 415 783 4242 tkaylor@deloitte.com
illiken@deloitte.com
Vivian Pereira Partner Deloitte U.K. +44 20 7007 0558 viviapereira@deloitte.co.uk Robert Young Partner Deloitte U.K. +44 20 7007 2571 robyoung@deloitte.co.uk
Guy Langford Principal Deloitte & Touche LLP + 1 212 436 3020 glangford@deloitte.com
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