Peacock Bull Bear

Stock Market Indicators:
Fundamental, Sentiment,
& Technical
Yardeni Research, Inc.
August 8, 2012
Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1-2
Global Growth Barometer
3
Economic Surprise Index
4
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
5
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
6
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
7
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
8
AAII Sentiment
9
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
10
S&P 500 Put Call Ratio
11
Volatility
12
Volume
13
S&P 500 Moving Averages
14
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
15
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma
16
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50017
August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

www.yardeni.com
- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Figure 1.

1700
130
S&P 500 INDEX vs. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR
1600
120
1500
110
1400
8/8
1300
7/28
100
1200
90
1100
80
1000
900
800
S&P 500 Index
70
Fundamental Stock
Market Indicator*
60
50
700
yardeni.com
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
40
2013
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,
four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poors Corporation.
Figure 2.
170
170
BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
160
160
150
150
US Boom Bust Barometer*
140
Consumer Comfort Index

(index plus 100)
130
140
7/28
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
7/28
60
60
50
50
yardeni.com
40
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
40
2013
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
Page 1 / August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

www.yardeni.com
- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Figure 3.

1600
700
S&P 500 INDEX vs. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
8/8
1400
600
1200
8/8
500
1000
S&P 500 Index

400
800
CRB Raw Industrials

Spot Index
yardeni.com
600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
300
2013
Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 4.
200
1700
S&P 500 INDEX vs. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Initial Unemployment Claims
(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,
inverted scale)
300
1500
7/28
1300
400
1100
500
900
600
S&P 500 Index
700
yardeni.com
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
500
2013
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poors Corporation.

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- Global Growth Barometer Figure 5.

1600
1600
S&P 500 vs. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis)
8/8
1400
1400
8/8
1200
1200
1000
1000
S&P 500 Index (1402.2)

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1274.7)
800
yardeni.com
600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
800
600
2013
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
Figure 6.
170
1600
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
150
1400
130
1200
8/8
110
90
1000
S&P 500 Index
70
Brent Crude Oil Price

(dollars per barrel)
50
800
yardeni.com
30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
600
2013
Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poors Corporation.

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- Economic Surprise Index Figure 7.

475
375
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)
275
175
8/8
75
-25
8/8
-125
-225
S&P 500 minus its

200 day-moving average
-325
-425

-525
yardeni.com
-625
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
-110
-120
-130
-140
-150
-160
-170
2013
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 8.
17
150
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)
16
100
15
50
14
0
13
8/8
-50
12
11
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
10
-100
-150
yardeni.com
9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-200
2013
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.

www.yardeni.com
- Investors Intelligence Sentiment Figure 9.

4.0
4.0
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs. BEARS
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
Bull/Bear Ratio
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
8/7
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
Jul 31
Aug 7
.5
Ratio
1.42
1.71
.5
.0
.0
1999
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
80
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs BEARS

Bulls
70
Jul 24
Jul 31
Aug 7
Bears
Bulls
40.4
39.4
43.6
Bears
26.6
27.7
25.5
70
60
60
50
50
8/7
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
45
45
40
40
Correction Camp
35
35
8/7
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
yardeni.com
5
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source: Investors Intelligence.
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

www.yardeni.com
- Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Figure 10.

1800
1800
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF

3.0 OR MORE
1600
1600
8/8
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
yardeni.com
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
200
14
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
15000
15000
14000
14000
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF

3.0 OR MORE
13000
8/8
13000
12000
12000
11000
11000
10000
10000
9000
9000
8000
8000
7000
7000
6000
6000
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
3000
2000
2000
yardeni.com
1000
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
1000
14
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.
Source: Wall Street Journal Investors and Intelligence.

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- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Figure 12.

1800
1800
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

OF 1.0 OR LESS
1600
1600
8/8
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
400
400
yardeni.com
200
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
200
14
Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
15000
15000
14000
14000
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

OF 1.0 OR LESS
13000
8/8
13000
12000
12000
11000
11000
10000
10000
9000
9000
8000
8000
7000
7000
6000
6000
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
3000
2000
2000
yardeni.com
1000
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
1000
14
Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

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- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 Figure 14.

40
40
S&P 500 INDEX

LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE
20
20
8/8
0
-20
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
yardeni.com
87
88
89
-40
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0.
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.
Figure 15.
40
40
S&P 500 INDEX

LESS 200-DMA vs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS
20
20
8/8
0
-20
-20
S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Divided by S&P 500
(percent)
-40
yardeni.com
87
88
89
-40
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: Standard & Poors Corporation.

www.yardeni.com
- AAII Sentiment Figure 16.

100
100
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*
75
75
50
8/1
25
50
25
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

3
8/1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
80
70
80
Bulls
70
Bears
60
60
50
50
40
40
8/1
30
20
10
30
20
Jul 25
Aug 1
Latest Readings
Bulls
Bears
28.1
43.1
30.5
34.9
10
yardeni.com
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.
Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
2009
2010
2011
2012

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- Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence Figure 17.

4.0
140
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
3.5
120
3.0
100
2.5
2.0
80
7/31
1.5
60
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
40
Consumer Confidence
Expectations Index
.5
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20
2013
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 18.
4.0
40
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
30
3.5
20
3.0
10
2.5
2.0
-10
7/31
-20
1.5
-30
Bull/Bear Ratio
(4-week average)
1.0
-40
Consumer Comfort Index
.5
-50
yardeni.com
.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-60
2013
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

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- S&P 500 Put Call Ratio Figure 19.

3.75
3.50
3.75
S&P 500 PUT/CALL

(weekly data)
3.50
3.25
3.25
3.00
3.00
2.75
2.75
2.50
2.50
2.25
2.25
2.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
8/3
1.00
1.00
Average = 1.616
(1996-2010)
.75
.50
.75
yardeni.com
1996
1997
.50
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
Figure 20.
2.50
2.50
S&P 500 PUT/CALL

(4-week ma)
2.25
2.25
2.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
8/3
1.25
1.25
Average = 1.624
(1996-2010)
1.00
.75
1.00
yardeni.com
1996
1997
.75
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

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- Volatility Figure 21.

90
90
VIX: S&P 500
80
80
70
70
60
60
yardeni.com
50
40
30
50
40
30
20
20
8/8
10
10
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
Figure 22.
100
100
VIX: NASDAQ 100
80
60
60
yardeni.com
80
40
20
40
20
8/8
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

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- Volume Figure 23.

11200
11200
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE

WEEKLY VOLUME
(million shares, 4-week moving average)

9200
7200
7200
yardeni.com
9200
5200
5200
8/3
3200
3200
1200
1200
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Moving Averages Figure 24.

1450
1450
S&P 500 INDEX*
1400
1400
8/6
Latest price: 1394.23

50-dma: 1344.08
200-dma: 1325.12
1350
1300
1350
1300
1250
1250
1200
1200
1150
1150
1100
1100
(+) 50-dma is rising. Latest daily change is +0.11%

(+) 200-dma is rising. Latest daily change is +0.05%
(+) Latest price is 3.7% above the 50-dma.
(+) Latest price is 5.2% above the 200-dma.
1050
1050
1000
1000
yardeni.com
950
I
II
III
IV
II
2010
* Ratio Scale
Source: Standard & Poors.
III
IV
II
2011
950
III
2012
Figure 25.
25
20
25
S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALS

THE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS
20
50-dma relative to 200-dma (%)
15
15
10
10
5
8/3
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
yardeni.com
-30
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-30
14
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poors Corporation.

www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma Figure 26.
400
350
300
250
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
8/8
INDUSTRIALS
8/8
425
375
325
275
200
225
150
175
100
400
350
125
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CONSUMER STAPLES
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
8/8
1400
1150
900
300
650
8/8
250
400
200
150
750
650
550
450
150
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
ENERGY
MATERIALS
300
8/8
8/8
250
200
350
150
250
150
575
475
375
100
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
FINANCIALS
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
475
375
275
275
8/8
175
8/8
75
525
475
425
175
75
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
HEALTH CARE
UTILITIES
8/8
275
225
8/8
375
325
175
125
275
yardeni.com
225
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
75
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
* Ratio scale.
200-day moving average

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- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma Figure 27.
150
100
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY MINUS

200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
100
INDUSTRIALS
50
50
8/8
8/8
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
60
40
-150
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CONSUMER STAPLES
400
8/8
20
200
8/8
-20
-40
0
-200
-60
-80
200
-400
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
ENERGY
MATERIALS
100
100
50
8/8
8/8
-100
-50
-200
-100
-300
150
100
-150
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
FINANCIALS
100
50
50
8/8
8/8
-50
-100
-50
-150
-200
100
-100
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
HEALTH CARE
UTILITIES
50
100
50
8/8
8/8
-50
-50
-100
yardeni.com
-150
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-100
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

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- S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500 Figure 28.
.28
.26
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
.26
INDUSTRIALS
.24
8/8
8/8
.24
.22
.22
.20
.20
.18
.18
.16
.30
.16
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CONSUMER STAPLES
.25
8/8
.8
.6
.20
8/8
.15
.10
.6
.4
.2
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
ENERGY
MATERIALS
.25
.5
.20
.4
8/8
8/8
.15
.3
.10
.2
.1
.4
.05
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
FINANCIALS
.30
.25
.3
.20
.15
.2
8/8
8/8
.1
.45
.10
.05
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
HEALTH CARE
UTILITIES
.20
.18
.40
.16
.35
8/8
.30
8/8
.14
.12
.25
.10
yardeni.com
.20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
.08
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

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Stock Market Indicators:

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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thinking outside the box

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

August 8, 2012 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Figure 1.

S&P 500 INDEX vs. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR

S&P 500 Index

BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

US Boom Bust Barometer*

Consumer Comfort Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Figure 3.

S&P 500 INDEX vs. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials

Source: Thomson Financial I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

S&P 500 INDEX vs. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

S&P 500 Index

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poors Corporation.

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Global Growth Barometer Figure 5.

S&P 500 Index (1402.2)

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price

Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poors Corporation.

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Economic Surprise Index Figure 7.

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

S&P 500 minus its

Economic Surprise Index

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

S&P 500 Forward P/E*

Economic Surprise Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Investors Intelligence Sentiment Figure 9.

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs. BEARS

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS vs BEARS

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Figure 10.

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATO OF

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Figure 12.

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 Figure 14.

S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- AAII Sentiment Figure 16.

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

Yardeni Research, Inc.

- Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence Figure 17.

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE