Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
iNDia
QUarterLy UPDate | JULy | 2012
Accelerating success.
2Q 2012 | OFFICE
ECONOMIC INDICATORs
Gross Domestic product at factor cost
10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Oct - Dec 09
Oct - Dec 10
Jan - Mar 09
Jul - Sep 10
Apr - Jun 09
Jul - Sep 09
Jan - Mar 10
Apr - Jun 10
Jan - Mar 11
Apr - Jun 11
Jul - Sep 11
ECONOMIC BAROMETER
Jun-11
REPO RATE REVERSE REPO RATE cRR INFLATION PRIME LENDING RATE DEPOSIT RATE (<1 YEAR) FOREIGN ExcHANGE INR - USD 45.18 55.68 7.50% 6.50% 6.00% 9.51% 9.25% - 10.00% 7.75% - 9.50%
Jun-12
8.00% 7.00% 4.75% 7.55% 10.00% - 10.50% 8.00% - 9.25%
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 INR crore 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
2009 - 10
2010 - 11
2008 - 09
2011-12
2005 - 06
2006 - 07
INR- EURO
63.25
70.04
2007 - 08
* Rebase to 100
BSE Sensex
Realty Index
Exchange Rates
7-May-12
16-May-12
25-May-12
3-Jun-12
USD
Euro
www.colliers.com
12-Jun-12
80
April 12
Jan - Mar 12
MuMBAI
During 2Q 2012, approximately 9.4 million sq.ft. of grade A office space was available for lease and sale, primarily concentrated in Andheri East, Lower Parel and Thane/ LBS Marg. The citys grade A inventory was added by 0.2 million sq.ft. of new supply in SBD this quarter by Star Hub project of Star Developers at Andheri East. During the surveyed quarter, construction activities remained moderate. Due to a slowdown in the economy, developers remained cautious and hesitant in undertaking further construction activities, thus, no new projects were launched in the market. Rental levels of grade A office space remained stable across all the micro markets except Bkc (Bandra-kurla-complex) where rents increased by 3% q-o-q due to limited supply and demand from corporates. Going forward, the rental values for grade A office space are expected to remain stable in almost all micro markets. In this quarter, the state revenue department revised the Land Lease Policy and imposed a 7.5% premium on the market value of the land/plots leased for redevelopment of residential, educational and religious activities, whereas 10% for other activities.
Forecast 210 175 INR per Sq ft per Month 140 105 70 35 0 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 1Q2013F 3Q2012F 4Q2012F 2Q2013F 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009
kalina 1%
cBD 1%
MUMBAI
Grade A
Grade B
During the same period, Peninsula Land sold off its office building located at Lower Parel to various financial services firms namely Tata capital, National Realty, India Nivesh Insurance Brokers and Tata AIG Life Insurance.
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
Devon Famy care Lodha Reliance Digital Tata Tesco Vships BUILDING NAME Supreme Business Park Peninsula corporate Park I Think Times Square kohinoor Business Park Lotus Midtown AREA (SQ. FT.) 56,000 15,000 40,000 26,000 50,000 27,000 LOcATION Powai Lower Parel Thane Andheri Vidyavihar kalina TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
Navi Mumbai
Malad (IT)
Powai (IT)
p. 3
DElhI
Approximately 1.0 million sq.ft. of grade A office space was ready for lease / sale in 2Q 2012 located mainly in Saket and Jasola neighborhoods of Delhi. Fast paced construction activities were observed in a newly developed area near Delhi Airport namely Aerocity. Two projects located at Aerocity such as Aria Signature Office and IBIS commercial Tower developed by JW Marriot and IBIS Hotel respectively, added approximately 0.2 million sq.ft. of commercial grade A office during this quarter.
DELHI
connaught Place 2%
Saket 29%
Jasola 59%
A new commercial project caddie commercial Tower, was launched by caddle Hotel with an area of 0.1 million sq.ft. in Aerocity. The project is expected to be complete by end of 2013. Overall absorption was restrained in 2Q 2012 in comparisons to last quarter as both investors and end-users were following wait and watch policy due to prevailing economic uncertainties. In 2Q 2012, rental values for grade A properties increased in the range of 2 to 7% on q-o-q in locations such as connaught Place and Nehru Place, however negative corrections in the range of 4 to 10% were registered in Jasola and Saket. Office rent prognosis reveal further stability for grade A office space in the market on account of economy slowdown and limited supply.
Grade A
Grade B
280 245 210 INR per Sq ft per Month 175 140 105 70 35 0 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012
Forecast
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
Jasola
cannaught place
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
Barista cPM Hitachi Marico BUILDING NAME Independent Building c-126 konnectus DLF Towers AREA (SQ. FT.) 10,000 12,000 25,000 4,300 LOcATION Okhla Phase I Okhla Phase I Minto Road, c.P Jasola TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease
p. 4
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
GuRGAON
Nearly 13.8 million sq.ft. of grade A office space was available for fit-out in 2Q 2012. Most of this available supply was concentrated in Golf course Road and its extension, Udyog Vihar and NH8 up to Manesar. Projects/parts of the projects completed this quarter includes: Ascendas Onehub developed by Ascendas; JMD Megapolis by JMD Group and Park View Business Park by Bestech Group, located on Sohna Road; and Universal Business Park by Universal Group on Golf course Road Extension. All of these projects together contributed approximately 2.8 million sq.ft. of grade A office space to the citys total office inventory. During this quarter no new grade A commercial project was launched in Gurgaon. Demand for grade A office space remained stable and only few large floor plate leases were signed during the quarter. On the rental side, grade A office space values observed a negative correction in the range of 2 to 4% on quarter on quarter across all micro-markets, except for Manesar where rentals remained stable. Looking forward, Demand for office space in Gurgaon is likely to witness moderate growth and rents are expected to remain stable in the near future.
Manesar 18%
GURGAON
Grade A
Grade B
Forecast
MG Road Golf course Road/Ext /Sohna Road Institutional Sectors /Sushant Lok NH8/Udyog Vihar (IT) Manesar (IT)
DLF cyber city (IT) Golf course Road/ Ext /Sohna Road (IT) Manesar NH8/Udyog Vihar
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
capgemini childrens Place E&Y Hitachi Pepsi BUILDING NAME Spaze iTech Park cyber Terraces DLF cyber Greens Time Tower Pioneer Park AREA (SQ. FT.) 80,000 12,000 100,000 3,000 269,000 LOcATION Sohna Road DLF cyber city DLF cyber city M.G. Road Golf course Road Extn. TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
Stel
Independent Building
4,000
Sector 29
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 5
NOIDA
In 2Q 2012, about 6 million sq.ft. of grade A and grade B office space was available for sale or lease. 88% of this available office space was dedicated to IT/ITeS located in sectors 16 A, 62 and 125 to 143 along the NOIDA expressway. New grade A office supply of more than 1.5 million sq.ft. was added to NOIDAs total office inventory. contributors to the new supply were, SDS tower by SDS Infratech Private Limited, Plot No. 8 by 3c Universal Pvt. Ltd., Ansal corporate Park by Ansal API and Plot No. 6, 12 & 21 at Sector 125 by few local developers. Nearly 1 million sq.ft of grade A office space were launched during this quarter including Logix Riviera at sector 105 by Logix Group, Jaypee commercial Space at sector 128 by Jaypee Group and Assotech Business cresterra at Sector 135 by Assotech. Overall demand for grade A office space remained subdued and only few transactions were observed during the quarter. Leasing in special economic zone remained active, and vacancy has significantly dropped over the quarter. In 2Q 2012, rental values declined in almost all the micro markets in the range of 2 to 5% due to cautious investor sentiments and downward pressure of office demand. However in the Industrial Sector rentals appreciated by 4% on quarter on quarter basis. Going forward rental values for grade A office space are expected to remain stable on account of limited supply in the near future. Most of the under construction projects are scheduled to complete by the end of the year 2013.
NOIDA
Grade A
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
2Q2013F
1Q2013F
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
2Q2011
1Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
I Yogi Mercerr United Health Group BUILDING NAME Oxygen SEZ Unitech SEZ Oxygen SEZ AREA (SQ. FT.) 50,000 120,000 60,000 LOcATION Sector 144 Sector 135 Sector 144 TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease
p. 6
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
ChENNAI
Over 13 million sq.ft. grade A office space was available for lease/sale in 2Q 2012. Nearly 75% of this stock was dedicated to IT/ ITeS office space mainly located at OMR (IT corridor) and Ambattur. commercial projects launched in chennai in 2Q 2012 includes Gupta Towers in Guindy by Gupta Builders admeasuring 0.2 million sq.ft. The projects completion is foreseen by 1Q 2013. No new grade A office space was completed during this quarter in chennai. The majority of the projects that were expected to be ready for fit out during 2Q 2012 were deferred until the next quarter.
2Q 2012
cHENNAI
In 2Q 2012, the commercial lease market remained active and a number of mid-sized companies were considering consolidation and looking for more cost effective real estate solutions. Rental values remained stable in almost all the micro markets. Going forward, rentals are likely to remain stable on account of the limited supply scheduled for completion by end of this year. In this quarter, NHAI (National Highways Authority of India) has finalised the six lane chennai-Bangalore highway with a total cost estimation of around INR 5,000 crore, which is anticipated to boost the real estate activities in the region.
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ambattur Guindy (SBD) OMR (IT corridor) GST road 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 cBD
IT
NON IT
Forecast
90 80 70 INR per sq ft per month 60 50 40 30 20 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 2Q2012
20 10 0
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2011
2Q2012
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
1Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2012
GST road
cBD
Guindy (SBD)
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
Agility Logistics Beroe Systems Emirates GE converteam kavian Systems Lafarge BUILDING NAME Temple Steps ASV chandilya Prestige Palladium Bayan Ramaniyam khivaraj complex RR1 Towers AREA (SQ. FT.) 19,500 50,000 8,000 40,000 11,000 10,000 LOcATION Guindy IT corridor Greams Road Guindy Nandanam Guindy TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Sale
Source: Colliers International India Research
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 7
BENGAluRu (BANGAlORE)
About 8.6 million sq.ft. of commercial grade A office space was available for fit-outs in 2Q 2012. More than 60% of this total available space is concentrated in EPIP Zone and Whitefield. New supply in Bengalurus grade A office space for 2Q 2012 accounted for more than 0.8 million sq.ft. Projects/ parts of the projects contributing to this new supply were confident Electra and confident Aquila developed by confident Group, Embassy Vogue by Embassy Group and Neo Town by Patel Realty.
BENGALURU
cBD 7%
Hosur Rd 4%
During 2Q 2012, RMA corp launched two new towers in RMZ EcO WORLD with a development potential of about 1.7 million sq.ft. Additionally, Bagmane Group launched a commercial project Bagmane constellation Pheonix with a lettable area of about 0.4 million sq.ft. Both these projects were located along Outer Ring Road and expected to be ready for clients by end of 2014. The leasing market remained active with a number of medium size deals in the a range of 10,000 to 50,000 sq. ft. Most of the transaction took place in Whitefield and Electronic city micro markets. Average rentals for grade A office premises remained stable in almost all the micro markets except for cBD where an increase of 6% was observed on quarter on quarter. This increase could be attributed to the persistent demand and limited supply in this region. For the next quarter, absorption levels are expected to remain fairly high. Despite the elevated demand, rental values will remain stable as significant supply is expected to enter the market in the near future complimenting this way the expected demand.
Grade B
50 45 40 INR per Sq ft per Month 35 30 25 20 15 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012
Forecast
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
Axis Aerospace Ellusion Tyco VM Ware xentrix Studios Private Limited Yokogawa IA Technologies BUILDING NAME Vaswani centerpolis Prestige Zeenath Prestige Shantiniketan Forutna1 Pritech - SEZ Umiya Business Bay AREA (SQ. FT.) 21,650 31,820 25,000 28,000 21,125 30,000 LOcATION Langford Road Rajaram Mohan Roy Road Whitefield JP Nagar Outer Ring Road Outer Ring Road TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 8
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
KOlKATA
In 2Q 2012, 0.5 million sq. ft. was added to the grade A office stock in kolkata. Projects/ parts of the projects contributing this supply were New Town Square by PS Group, DLF Galleria by DLF Ltd. both of these projects were located at New Town. Another project Merlin Legend by Merlin Group located at Bhowanipore. Bio Wonder project was launched in 2Q 2012 with an area of 0.4 million sq.ft. of office space located at EM Bypass. Another project by Zion Realty at Park circus connector was launched with an area of 0.1 million sq.ft. both expected to be completed by end of 2015. Rentals in 2Q 2012 remained stable in almost all the micro markets except in cBD where an appreciation of 4% was marked on q-o-q. The overall market sentiments remained stagnant during the quarter; while many companies are following the wait and watch strategy until uncertainties related to policies will be cleared by the state government. Expectations for the next quarter reveal stable rentals in cBD while peripheral areas could witness a downward pressure on rental levels due to massive upcoming supply in pipeline. Major land transactions in 2Q 2012 include, a 2 acre plot on EM Bypass was sold to AHW Steels for INR 115 crore by kolkata Municipal corporation and 10 acre land parcel was sold to State Bank of India for INR 58 crore for establishing a their training institute at Rajarhat.
kOLkATA
Grade A
Grade B
90 80 70 INR per Sq ft per Month 60 50 40 30 20 10 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 2Q2010 2Q2011 1Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 2Q2012 1Q2013F 4Q2012F 2Q2013F 1Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2012 3Q2012F 0 Forecast
cBD (Park St,camac St, AJc Bose Rd) Ballygunge circular Rd PBD (New Town, Rajarhat
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
Aditya Birla Nova Bajaj Finance EBMIRON HDFc Learning Mate TcS BUILDING NAME Haut Street Technopolis Building No.139 Eco Space Eco Space Eco Space AREA (SQ. FT.) 4,000 10,000 4,000 125,000 30,000 33,000 LOcATION Topsia Sector 5, Salt Lake SP Mukherjee Road New Town, Rajarhat New Town, Rajarhat New Town, Rajarhat TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 9
2Q2012
puNE
About 6.0 million sq.ft. of grade A office space was available for fit out in Pune during 2Q 2012. Nearly 76% of this supply was evenly distributed in micro markets of kharadi, Hinjewadi, Hadapsar/Fursungi, Nagar Road and Airport Road. No new supply was added to citys grade A office space during the surveyed period.
Baner 5% Bund Garden 2% Airport road/ pune station 7% Aundh 3% Hinjewadi 26% Senapati Bapat Road 4% Bavdhan 4% Nagar Road 11% kalyani Nagar 5%
Panchshil Realty launched convex admeasuring 0.4 million sq.ft. in kharadi. The project is expected to be completed by 4Q 2015.
PUNE
Pune continued to experience high absorption levels. Most of the small floor plate layout office leases were observed in Viman Nagar, Aundh, Wakdewadi and Hadapsar. In this quarter rental values of grade A office space registered an increase in the range of 5 to 6% on q-o-q in Baner and kalyani Nagar locations primarily due to limited availability of supply in cBD. However, rents in all other micro markets remained stable. Going forward, rentals are expected to remain stable in most of the micro markets barring special economic zones, where marginal appreciation can be seen due to limited supply. During this quarter, work commenced for operating the bus rapid transit system (BRTS) on 11-km stretch of the Pune-Mumbai highway in Pimpri- chinchwad commenced and is expected to be completed by end of 2012. This will further interest in the real estate along the Pune-Mumbai highway.
IT
Non IT
70 60 50 INR per Sq ft per Month 40 30 20 10 0 2Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 2Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012
Forecast
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
cLIENT
Ascent Group cox & kings DHL HUAWEI kLINGELNBERG kONEcRANES BUILDING NAME Sakar 10 Mansoor Ali Tower R B Business centre Gera Emporia No.12 Magarpatta AREA (SQ. FT.) 7,900 2,400 4,000 8,000 3,250 22,000 LOcATION Bund Garden Road Dhole Patil Road Aundh Vimannagar koregaon Park Hadapsar TRANSAcTION TYPE Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Whitefield
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 10
| COllIERs INTERNATIONAl
OffICE suBMARKETs
Mumbai The major business locations in Mumbai are the cBD (Nariman Point, Fort and Ballard Estate), central Mumbai (Worli, Lower Parel and Parel), Bandra kurla complex (Bkc) and Andheri kurla stretch. Powai, Malad and Vashi are the preferred IT/ITES destinations, while Airoli at Navi Mumbai and Lal Bahadur Shastri Marg are emerging as new office and IT/ITES submarkets. Delhi The commercial areas in New Delhi metropolitan area can be broadly classified into the cBD (connaught Place), SBD Nehru Place, Bhikaji cama Place, Netaji Subhash Place, Jasola and Saket . Gurgaon The prime business locations in Gurgaon are MG Road, Golf course Road, cyber city and Udyog Vihar. Manesar on the outskirts of Gurgaon is also emerging as the citys new office destination. NOIDA NOIDA market is comprised of sectors broadly classified as institutional, industrial and commercial sectors. Institutional sectors include sec 16A, 62 and 125-142, industrial sectors include sec 1-9, 57-60 and 63- 65 while sector 18 is the most developed commercial sector. Chennai Prime office properties in chennai are located in four principal sub-markets: the cBD, the IT corridor, the SBD and the PBD. The SBD comprises Guindy, Manapakkam, Velachery and other areas. The PBD primarily includes Ambattur and GST Road, while the IT corridor is the Old Mahaballipuram Road (OMR) in south chennai. Bengaluru (Bangalore) Prime office properties in Bengaluru can be divided into three principal sub-market cBD, the SBD consisting of Banerghatta Road & Outer Ring Road (ORR) and PBD including Hosur Road, EPIP Zone, Electronic city and Whilefield. Pune The prime office sub-markets of Pune include Deccan Gymkhana, Senapati Bapat Road & camp (SBD), while the PBD includes Aundh, Bund Garden, Airport Road and kalyani Nagar, among other locations. The eastern corridor, along with Nagar Road and kharadi, have emerged as a preferred location for financial and IT/ITES companies. Kolkata The major business locations in kolkata are cBD (Park Street, camac Street, chowranghee Rd), SBD (AJc Bose Rd, Ballygunge circular Rd, East kolkata), East kolkata and PBD (New Town & Rajarhat). The area around Park Street, camac Street and AJc Bose road houses number of high-rises commercial buildings such as chatterjee International centre, Tata centre, Everest House and Industry House among others.
CITY BAROMETER
Increasing as compared to previous quarter Decreasing as compared to previous quarter Remained stable from previous quarter
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl |
p. 11
: Prabhu Raghavendra, Office Director Prabhu.raghavendra@colliers.com 31/A, 3rd floor, Film center, 68, Tardeo Road, Mumbai, India - 400 034. Tel : +91 22 4050 4500, fax : +91 22 2351 4272
AUTHORS
Amit Oberoi MRICS National Director, Valuation & Advisory; Research Email: Amit.oberoi@colliers.com Surabhi Arora MRICS Associate Director, Research Email: Surabhi.arora@colliers.com Sachin Sharma Assistant Manager, Research Email: Sachin.sharma@colliers.com Heliana Mano Assistant Manager,Valuation & Advisory Email: Heliana.mano@colliers.com For general queries and feedback : India.Research@colliers.com Tel: +91 124 456 7580
Delhi NCR : Ajay Rakheja, Office Director Ajay.rakheja@colliers.com New Delhi : Statesman House, 4th Floor, Barakhamba Road, connaught Place, New Delhi, India - 110001 Tel : +91 11 4360 7500, fax : +91 11 2335 6624 Gurgaon : Technopolis Building, 1st floor, DLF Golf course Main Road, Sector 54, Gurgaon, India - 122002 Tel : +91 124 437 5807, fax : +91 124 437 5806 Bengaluru : Goutam chakraborthy, Office Director Goutam.chakraborthy@colliers.com Prestige Garnet, Level 2, Unit No.201/202, 36 Ulsoor Road, Bengaluru, India - 560 042 Tel : +91 80 4079 5500, fax : +91 80 4112 3131 Pune : Suresh castellino, Office Director Suresh.castellino@colliers.com Hotel Le Meridian, 101, R.B.M. Road, Pune, India - 411 001 Tel : +91 20 4120 6438, fax : +91 20 4120 6434 : kaushik Reddy, Office Director kaushik.reddy@colliers.com Heavitree complex, Unit 1c, 1st floor, 23, Spurtank Road, chetpet, chennai, India - 600 031 Tel : +91 44 2836 1064, fax : +91 44 2836 1377 : Soumya Mukherjee , Office Director Soumya.mukherjee@colliers.com Infinity Business centre, Infinity Benchmark, Room No 13, Level 18, Plot G - 1, Block EP & GP, Salt Lake Sector V, kolkata - 700 091 West Bengal, India Tel : +91 33 2357 6501, fax : +91 33 2357 6502
Chennai
Kolkata
This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com/India. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at the number indicated above. This document has been prepared by colliers International for advertising and general information only. colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. copyright 2012 - 2013 All Rights Reserved.
Recent Reports :
GLOBAL RETAIL
MID-YEAR 2012 | RETAIL
INDIA RESIDENTIAL
APAc INDUSTRIAL
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL
SECOND HALF 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
GLOBAL OFFIcE
SECOND HALF 2011 | OFFICE
INDIA BUDGET
Q1 2012 | RESEARCH
HIGHLIGHTS
GLOBAL
HIGHLIGHTS
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL
HIGHLIGHTS
GLOBAL OFFICE
A SNEAK PREVIEW
Record Rents for Top Retail Corridors; Global Slowdown Impacts Momentum Elsewhere
ANN T. NATUNEWICZ Manager | Retail Research | USA
Colliers 2012 Global Retail Streets survey found that of 129 locations tracked, 51 posted higher year over year average rental rates, 49 were flat, and 24 were down (5 lacked comparable data). Retailers entering new marketsboth developed and developingcontinue to hedge risk by targeting the same one or two premier locations, generating heated competition and outsized rental rate growth in a handful of space-constrained corridors. Companies with the most ambitious long-term expansion plans remain focused on emerging markets with rapidly growing middle-class populations, but recently institutional capital has pulled back somewhat to favor core markets and investments. While economic and political turmoil did affect rental rates in headline-generating markets (such as Cairo and Athens), high streets with strong fundamentals remained remarkably resilient, suggesting, at least for now, some separation between macroeconomic issues and underlying real estate fundamentals. Since we conducted our survey, however, weakening consumer sentiment among affluent shoppers has already begun to impact retailers revenues and could hinder landlords near-term ability to raise rents, suggesting flattening growth rates for the coming year. This spring proved to be a tricky time to conduct global benchmarking, as market sentiment has deteriorated markedly since April. During the past year, virtually every entity making a forecast including Colliers in our 2012 U.S. Retail Outlookincluded a caveat related to not-yet-quantifiable global fallout from Europes fiscal issues. As the past few months have illustrated, the time to face Eurozone issues has finally arrived, spawning a new wave of financial uncertainty. More than two years post-recession, though, results from our annual survey of High Street rents illustrate that the worlds priciest retail corridors continue to attract the most sought-after tenants at lofty rental rates. Eight of Colliers top ten Global Retail Streets in 2011 made the list again this year. The big story, however, lies with the explosive year over year rental growth achieved in a handful of markets. Six of our Top 10 grew at double-digit levels year over year in local currency units, five of them by more than 20%. At a regional level, streets in areas that entered 2007-08 better-positioned economicallyAustralia, Canada, parts of Eastern Europehad a higher percentage of this year's flat-to-higher rents than those slower to emerge from the recession. We will be watching these areas closely. Even as they represent some of the most attractive destinations for expansion-minded companies and yield-seeking investors, they too are vulnerable to softening consumer demand and, for those with reliable data, encroachment of e-commerce. This report contains two parts. The first summarizes the results of our annual Global Retail Streets survey, conducted in April 2012. The second incorporates content from Colliers brokerage and research teams worldwide who contributed market operational metrics, nuanced commentary on retail conditions, and forward-looking opinions on what the next year will hold for consumers, landlords, and investors.
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL CAPITALIZATION RATES (Prime Yield/Percent) MARKET (Select Markets)
Hong Kong Singapore London (Heathrow) Tokyo Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA Chicago, IL Paris Munich Vancouver, BC Marseilles New Jersey Northern Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Shanghai Seoul Madrid Sydney Mexico City Prague Athens Bucharest
Company
BSE SENSEX Realty Index Anant Raj Inds D B Realty DLF Godrej Properties HDIL Hubtown Ltd. Indiabulls Real Estate Mahindra Lifespaces Orbit Corp. Parsvnath Developers Peninsula Land Phoenix Mills Sobha Developers Sunteck Realty Unitech
Change (%)
-1.19 -1.26 -6.04 -2.02 0.15 -2.82 -5.21 -4.13 -1.95 -0.72 -3.37 -4.04 -3.18 -2.65 3.04 -1.13 -1.68
we expect overall warehouse rents in the So Paulo region to rise by as much as four percent in the coming year. Mexico City saw a three percent decrease in its industrial vacancy rate in the second half of 2011, down to 4.8 percent. Mexico was more negatively affected by the recession than most countries in North America, and its economic future is largely tied to that of its key trading partner, the United States. But with U.S. growth on the upswing, Mexico too is poised to grow at a modest rate and we expect that vacancies could make further drops in the country. Steady Demand in North America Since peaking in 2010, growth in the manufacturing and distribution industry has kept the U.S. vacancy rate dropping in a mostly regular fashion. Vacancy dropped to 9.72 percent in Q4 2011. With construction proceeding at low levels, we expect vacancies to continue to drop at a measured rate into 2013. Toronto, Canadas biggest industrial market, saw 13.7 million square feet of industrial space absorbed in 2011, and the citys prime warehouse rents grew by 7.1 percent in the second half of 2011. Dropping Vacancies in Most Asian Markets Asia Pacific saw dropping vacancies in nearly every market. Prime warehouse rents grew in more than half of the markets, and observers in more than half of those markets expect that warehouse rents will continue to climb over the next six months. Australian industrial has been especially strong in most major markets. Retail purchases, made more attractive by the relatively strong Australian dollar, have pushed up demand for large warehouse space in several port markets. While there is growing demand for large modern warehouse
Continued on page 8
STREET/PRECINCT
New York Fifth Avenue Hong Kong Queen's Road Central, Central (tie) Hong Kong Canton Road (tie) London Old Bond St.*** Paris Avenue des*** Champs-lyses Hong Kong Causeway Bay New York Madison Avenue Zurich Bahnhofstrasse Milan Via Monte Napoleone Sydney Pitt Street Mall
, , , , , ,
REGION Asia Pacific Asia Pacific EMEA Asia Pacific NA NA EMEA EMEA NA EMEA NA NA Asia Pacific Asia Pacific EMEA Asia Pacific LATAM EMEA EMEA EMEA
DEC 2010
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Industrial vacancy rates will further drop in most markets. Some markets, U.S. and Australia among them, will experience a lack of new supply in the face of growing demand. Prime warehouse rents will climb in most Asia Pacific markets, remain stable in EMEA and LATAM, and continue to strengthen in North American markets. Citing deteriorating financial conditions and dimming growth prospect, the International Monetary Funds (IMF) revised its September 2011 World Economic Outlook growth projections downward in January 2012. However, the IMF still forecasts that global trade volume will rise by 3.8 percent in 2012 and 5.4 percent in 2013; as global trade rises, so too will demand for warehouse space. While warehouse rents have stabilized in most EMEA and Latin American markets, prime warehouse rents quoted in local currencies increased in the majority of Asia Pacific and North American markets in 2011 over the previous year. We expect this trend to continue, with prime warehouse rents climbing in most Asia Pacific and North American markets in the next year. Latin American Rents Poised to Stabilize In Latin America, prime warehouse rental rates took a fall. In 71.4 percent of the markets we track, year-end rents decreased in 2011 from a year earlier. However, we expect warehouse rents in Latin America to stabilize in the coming year. So Paulo saw a 12.4 percent drop in warehouse rents in local currency, due to increased supply. However, with absorption set to outpace supply,
CBD CAP RATE (%) DEC 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . JUNE 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . DEC 2010 . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee started his budget speech 2012-13 in the backdrop of challenging macroeconomic scenario. The finance minister projects the economy to grow by 7.6% in the next fiscal up from 6.9% in 2011-12. He mentioned that due to adverse global economic sentiments there has been a slowdown in the Indian Economy but the fact is India still remains among the front runners in the economic growth in any cross country comparison. The budget aims at faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth across sectors emphasizing on five focus areas including revival of domestic consumption, rapid revival of high growth in private investment, removal of supply bottlenecks, addressing malnutrition in 200 high burden districts and expedite improvement in delivery system, governance and transparency. From a real estate perspective, the budget remained silent on most of the major issues including status of STPIs (Software Technology Parks of India), Real Estate Regulatory Bill, Land Bill etc. however, it mentioned that efforts are on to arrive at a political consensus on the issue of allowing 51% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail. THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE BUDGET WHICH MAY IMPACT REAL ESTATE SECTOR ARE AS FOLLOWS: - External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) for low cost affordable housing projects. Impact: Real estate companies developing large affordable housing projects with large fund requirements will benefit the most from the easing of external commercial borrowing (ECB) norms as interest rate charged is lower in case of external borrowings in comparison to rates charged by domestic institutions. - Increase in provision under Rural Housing Fund to INR 4,000 crore from the existing INR 3,000 crore.Impact: It will provide housing finance to targeted groups in rural areas at competitive rates. - Extension of the existing scheme of interest subvention of 1% on housing loans up to INR 15 lakh where the cost of the house does not exceed INR 25 lakh for another year. Impact: This will boost the affordable housing segment by providing cheaper loan to the end users.
Source: Colliers International * selected cities ** exchange rate as of March 31, 2012 *** Zone A rents
RENT
MARKET
Tokyo London (Heathrow) Hong Kong Singapore Zurich Oslo Moscow Geneva So Paulo Helsinki Marseilles Paris
REGION
Asia Pacific EMEA Asia Pacific Asia Pacific EMEA EMEA EMEA EMEA LATAM EMEA EMEA EMEA
6-MONTH CHANGE*
-.% .% .% .% .% .% .% -.% -.% .% .% .%
*Local currency
DEC 2011 . . . . . . . . .
JUNE 2011 . . . . . . . . . .
DEC 2010 . . . . . . . . . .
www.colliers.com
Accelerating success.
. . . . . . . . . . . .
EMEA and Asia Pacific Lead Global Construction A significant percentage of the office space under Select Asia Pacific Markets See Big Vacancy Drops The global trend in dropping vacancy rates should be evi- construction is in Europe, the Middle East and Africa dent in Asia and continue through 2012. Markets that saw (EMEA), and much of that is occurring in Moscow and a drop in vacancy in the second half of 2011 outnumbered Dubai. While both of these markets should expect strong by a two-to-one margin those where vacancy increased. economic growth in 2012, the fact that Dubaiwith a vacancy rate of 50 percentis constructing at such a pace Of the worlds most populous markets, those with the most leads us to expect that supply will continue to outpace significant declines in six-month vacancy rates were nearly demand in that market. all in the Asia Pacific region. Chengdu, propelled by its strong manufacturing sector, saw its vacancy rate drop by The other two top markets for office construction are in the GuangzhouChinas leading 7.8 percent in the period, and Shanghai saw a 3.2 percent Asia Pacific region. commercial port cityand Tokyo have 19.6 and 15.6 million drop in vacancy. square feet under construction respectively. Asian economic Two other large Asian markets saw vacancy rates drop by growth rates will remain strong in the coming months, with 1.5 percent or more: Jakarta, which has also seen China and India leading the pack. Rents are on the rise in sustained growth in CBD rental rates and renewed global most cities in the region. However, dropping rents in Seoul investor interest; and Singapore, where occupancies are and Hong Kong are a potential indicator of global economic expected to stabilize. uncertainty. In Tokyo, where new supply has been increasing for the past three years, we expect construction to peak and Marquee Markets See Rent Decline begin to decline in the coming year. While Hong Kong, Londons West End and Paris command the top three highest asking rents for Class A office space,
P. 1 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
Accelerating success.
WWW.COLLIERS.COM
WWW.COLLIERS.COM
www.colliers.com/india