Miklosi only down 4 to Coffman: Colorado 6th memo

Democrat Joe Miklosi is slightly outside of the margin of error in his race to unseat Republican representative Mike Coffman in Colorados 6th congressional district. Down only 4, with a margin of error of 3.79, Miklosi has surged to within striking distance in the newly redrawn 6th district. President Barack Obama has a 9 point lead in the district over Mitt Romney. It must be noted that Miklosi has an exceedingly low 25% name recognition. However, even though only a quarter of voters knew enough to offer an opinion on Miklosi, the Democrat holds a 1 point net favorability advantage over Coffman, who is viewed favorably by 32% of voters. Miklosi has the most room for improvement among women, who give President Obama an 18 point advantage but only choose Miklosi over Coffman by 6 points. But Miklosi may see those numbers improve the more voters get to know him. Women see the Democratic Party as overwhelmingly better for their own interests, with 63% saying that Democrats do a better job supporting women and only 29% taking the opposite position. Another issue that may improve Miklosis standing with women, and just about every other demographic as well, is on social services concerns. Women oppose turning Medicare into a voucher program, a main component of Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryans budget, by 36 points, compared to 26 points for men. When asked whether they would support a candidate who wanted to preserve Medicare and Social Security or one who wanted to change them, women supported the Democratic position by 45 points, compared to 28 points for men. Medicare might also help Miklosi gain ground on Coffman with independent voters, who are disproportionately undecided in this race. While Coffman leads with unaffiliated voters 34% to 16%, 35 % are waiting to learn more about their choices before jumping in on one side or the other. Social Service concerns may entice an outsized number of those undecideds to jump Miklosis way. 53% of independents oppose turning Medicare into a voucher program, the highest number of any ideological group except for progressive Democrats. These voters also favor a candidate who would preserve entitlements by 34 points. Ending the Bush tax cuts is another issue that Miklosi can use to improve his standing with important voting blocs. Overall, voters support ending the tax cuts on the wealthiest earners by 10 points, 51% to 41%. Women favor it by 14 points, independents by 13 points and Hispanics by 20 points. President Obamas healthcare reform law is not as popular with 6th district voters as the other policies tested. However, voters are evenly split, mostly along party lines, 43% saying they would support a candidate who would support the law and 42% saying they would not. This may serve to neutralize Republican counterattacks claiming that the healthcare law cuts Medicare, as voters appear to have made up their minds on the controversial law.
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