Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012

Market Research Insight
INDIANA STATEWIDE SURVEY 600 LIKELY VOTERS AUGUST 6-9, 2012 FOR INDIANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
Prepared by: Verne R. Kennedy, Ph.D. Market Research Insight August 2012
Introduction & Methodology

This report represents the results of a scientific telephone survey of public opinion among 600 Indiana likely voters conducted August 6-9, 2012. Dr. Verne Kennedy, Senior Analyst for Market Research
Insight, served as Project Director, developed the research instrument, analyzed results, and prepared the following analysis report. The sample population was scientifically selected to meet rigid criteria of random selection and geographical allocation. Survey results for the sample of 600 Indiana likely voters provides a sampling error factor of plus or minus 4.0% at the .95 level of confidence. Market Research Insight follows established and accepted procedures for sample selection, survey design, and analysis. All survey research, however, is subject to a margin of statistical error.
C:\Users\JBrantley\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.Outlook\ZNN3PCHM\Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012.doc LLU 8/15/2012 8:29 PM
Page 1
362 Gulf Breeze Pkwy, Suite 106 Gulf Breeze, Florida 32561 (850) 932-5907 Internet: www.mri-research.com E-mail: service@mri-research.com
Executive Summary
This Indiana statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted by telephone August 6-9, 2012 provides a sample an error of 4.0% at a .95 level of confidence. Dr. Verne Kennedy served as Project Director for the Indiana Chamber Statewide Survey.
Indiana Election for U. S. Senate

The survey examined voter awareness and opinion of the major candidates for U.S. Senate. In addition, a ballot question measured current support for candidates.
Senate Awareness and Opinion

The survey examined awareness and opinion for the two leading candidates for U. S. Senate, Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Richard Mourdock. The following question was used to determine
candidate awareness and opinion information. As I read a list of names, please tell whether or not you are familiar with each name. If you have never heard the name just say so. The first name is Joe Donnelly. (IF RECOGNIZE, ASK) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him? An identical question was employed for Richard Mourdock. JOE DONNELLY NAME RECOGNITION No Recognition Favorable Recognition Neutral Recognition Unfavorable Recognition 32% 26 29 14
Total Awareness Hard Opinion Recognition Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable
68% 40 1.9:1
Page 2
RICHARD MOURDOCK NAME RECOGNITION No Recognition Favorable Recognition Neutral Recognition Unfavorable Recognition 14% 27 33 26
86% 53 1.0:1
The following graphs summarize name recognition results. The first graph provides total recognition and the second graph looks at favorable and unfavorable opinion. The third graph shows the favorable to unfavorable opinion ratio.
CANDIDATE NAME RECOGNITION Total Awareness
Richard Mourdock
86%
Joe Donnelly
68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Page 3
OPINION OF CANDIDATES Favorable Unfavorable
27% Richard Mourdock 26%
26% Joe Donnelly 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
CANDIDATE OPINION RATIOS
Ratio
Joe Donnelly
1.9:1
Richard Mourdock
1.0:1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Page 4
Richard Mourdock has higher recognition of 86% compared to 68% for Joe Donnelly. Mourdock also has higher hard opinion recognition, the total of voters saying they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidate. Mourdock received 53% and Donnelly 40% hard opinion recognition. MRI calculates a ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion which depicts how many favorable voters a candidate has compared to each unfavorable respondent. In MRIs experience, candidates with a positive opinion ratio that indicates no significant unfavorable opinion have a ratio of 2.5:1 or higher. As indicated above, both Donnelly and Mourdock fall below that ratio. An analysis of candidate awareness and opinion provided several conclusions. In the states largest media area, Indianapolis, total recognition was Donnelly 76% and Mourdock 89%. Donnelly had 29% favorable and 16% unfavorable opinion compared to
Mourdock with 24% favorable and 32% unfavorable. The 38% of voters identifying themselves more as Democrats had 69% awareness of Donnelly and responded 46% favorable and 2% unfavorable. The 46% of voters identifying themselves more as Republicans had 94% total recognition for Mourdock which included 51% favorable and 9% unfavorable The 16% of voters saying they were completely Independent had 70%
awareness of Mourdock which included 11% favorable and 24% unfavorable. Independents were 58% aware of Donnelly and responded 14% favorable and 4% unfavorable. The 61% percent of voters 45 years and older had 91% Mourdock recognition with 27% favorable and 29% unfavorable. Those under 45 years of age had 77% Mourdock recognition with 28% favorable and 19% unfavorable. Donnelly had less difference in responses among major age groups. Voters 45 years and older were 68% aware of Donnelly with 26% favorable and 13% unfavorable opinion. favorable and 17% unfavorable. Differences also occurred based upon voter gender. Men had 71% awareness of Donnelly with 27% favorable and 19% unfavorable opinions. Women were 66% aware with 24% favorable and 10% unfavorable for Donnelly. Mourdock was known by 84% of men including 34% favorable and 24% unfavorable. Women had 88% recognition of Mourdock and responded 21% favorable and 27% unfavorable.
Those younger are also 68% aware and responded 25%
Page 5
Election for U. S. Senate

A ballot question included in the survey read: In an election for U. S. Senate held today, which candidate would you favor (ROTATE ORDER) Richard Mourdock the Republican, Joe Donnelly the Democrat or Andrew Horning the Libertarian? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) Richard Mourdock, Joe Donnelly or Andrew Horning? TRIAL HEAT U.S. SENATE Lean Richard Mourdock (R) Vote Richard Mourdock (R) Lean Joe Donnelly (D) Vote Joe Donnelly (D) Lean Andrew Horning (L) Vote Andrew Horning (L) 2% 39 1 38 0 3
Uncertain/Undecided
17%
Total Richard Mourdock (R) Total Joe Donnelly (D) Total Andrew Horning (L)
41% 39 3
Page 6
As indicated by other recent Indiana surveys, the race for U. S. Senate remains close with 41% Richard Mourdock, 39% Joe Donnelly, and 3% for Libertarian Andrew Horning. MRI completed an analysis of U. S. Senate trial heat results. Indianas largest media district, Indianapolis, favored Mourdock 40%, Donnelly 38%, Horning 3%, and 19% for undecided. The 26% of voters having a favorable opinion of Donnelly responded Donnelly 79%, Mourdock 15%, Horning 1% and 6% undecided. The 29% of voters having neutral recognition for
Donnelly, not holding a favorable or unfavorable opinion, replied Mourdock 43%, Donnelly 28%, Horning 4% and 24% undecided. Mourdock 88%. The 27% of voters favorable to Mourdock replied Mourdock 93%, Donnelly 5%, Horning 0%, and 2% undecided. Mourdock neutral opinion voters responded Mourdock 39%, Donnelly 31%, Horning 3% and 27% undecided. Donnelly 83%. In the ballot question, Democrats favored Donnelly 83% and Republicans favored Mourdock 80%. Democrats and Republicans were virtually equal in responding undecided, 11% and 12%. Independent voters favored Mourdock 21%, Donnelly 25%, Horning 14%, while 41% were undecided. Voters under 45 years of age responded Mourdock 42%, Donnelly 34%, Horning 7% and 16% undecided. Voters over 45 years of age replied Mourdock 41%, Donnelly 40%, Horning 1% and 18% undecided. Men favored Mourdock 46%, Donnelly 37%, Horning 4%, and 13% were undecided. Women chose Donnelly 41%, Mourdock 36%, Horning 3%, and 20% were undecided. The 26% of voters unfavorable to Mourdock favored The 14% of voters unfavorable to Donnelly favored
Page 7
The 16% of Indiana voters saying they were completely Independent will likely determine the outcome of the election for U. S. Senate. As typical, both Democrats and Republicans are relatively polarized favoring the candidate of their party. Although Donnelly holds a 4% current advantage among Independents, 41% are still undecided. Among voters 45 years of age and older the Senate race is a virtual tie with 18% undecided. However, among the younger voters who make up a smaller percent of those likely to cast ballots in Indiana, Mourdock has an 8% advantage with 16% undecided. Mourdock and women favor Donnelly. It is clear that men favor
Such gender gaps based upon political party are typical in
American politics. As indicated, men were 13% and women 20% undecided which give Donnelly an advantage. If the Obama campaign is successful in achieving a high young voter turnout again, that could help Mourdock. Although Independent voters give Donnelly a slight advantage, the same Independent voters favor the Republican in the Governors race by a margin of greater than two-to-one. Based on current survey results, Mourdock has the advantage in the election for U.S. Senate because more of the undecided voters identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, and undecided voters favor the Republican for Governor 33% to 6%. As the election nears, there is good probability that Republicans now undecided as well a few currently favoring Donnelly will favor Mourdock, Mourdock should also do better with Independents who vote more Republican for Governor.
Page 8
Indiana Election for Governor

The survey examined voter awareness and opinion of the major candidates for Governor. In addition, a ballot question measured current support for candidates.
Governor Awareness and Opinion

Although the Indiana election for U. S. Senate based upon these survey results does not give either the Republican or Democrat a clear advantage, the election for Governor is less uncertain. The following tables provide name recognition and opinion results for Republican Mike Pence and Democrat John Gregg. JOHN GREGG NAME RECOGNITION No Recognition Favorable Recognition Neutral Recognition Unfavorable Recognition 59% 16 16 9
41% 25 1.8:1
Page 9
MIKE PENCE NAME RECOGNITION No Recognition Favorable Recognition Neutral Recognition Unfavorable Recognition 20% 36 25 18
80% 54 2.0:1
The following graphs summarize name recognition results. The first graph provides total recognition and the second graph looks at favorable and unfavorable opinion. The third graph shows the favorable to unfavorable opinion ratio.
CANDIDATE NAME RECOGNITION
Total Awareness
Mike Pence
80%
John Gregg
41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Page 10
OPINION OF CANDIDATES Favorable Unfavorable
36% Mike Pence 18%
16% John Gregg 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
CANDIDATE OPINION RATIOS
Ratio
Mike Pence
2.0:1
John Gregg
1.8:1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Page 11
Voter choice for Governor was based upon the following question read: In an election for Governor held today, which candidate would you favor (ROTATE ORDER) Mike Pence the Republican, John Gregg the Democrat or Rupert Boneham the Libertarian? (IF UNDECIDED, ASK) Even though you are uncertain about your vote, which candidate would it be if you just had to say (ROTATE ORDER) Mike Pence, John Gregg or Rupert Boneham? TRIAL HEAT GOVERNOR Lean Mike Pence (R) Vote Mike Pence (R) Lean John Gregg (D) Vote John Gregg (D) Lean Rupert Boneham (L) Vote Rupert Boneham (L) 3% 47 1 31 0 3
Uncertain/Undecided
15%
Total Mike Pence (R) Total John Gregg (D) Total Rupert Boneham (L)
50% 32 3
With Pence leading Gregg 50% to 32% with 3% for the Libertarian and 15% undecided, there is little doubt that Pence would win the Gubernatorial Election if held at the time this survey was conducted. The 36% of voters with favorable opinion of Pence favor him 93%. The 16% of voters with a favorable opinion of Gregg favor him 79%. It is interesting to note that the 38% of voters who responded vote Donnelly favor the Democrat for Governor by 78%. In comparison, the 39% of voters who responded vote for Mourdock favor Republican for Governor 95%.
Page 12
Political Party Identification

The survey examined political party identification using the following question: Regardless of how you are registered to vote, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK) Do you lean more toward thinking of yourself as a Republican or a Democrat? POLITICAL SELF IDENTIFICATION Democrat Independent Democrat Completely Independent Independent Republican Republican 31% 7 16 9 37
Total Democrat Total Republican
38% 46
Although Indiana voters have a history of electing both Republicans and Democrats to statewide office, Republicans have an advantage in political party self-identification of 46% to 38% with 16% saying they are completely Independent. That advantage definitely helps Pence in the race for Governor, but the Republican advantage does not help Mourdock in the same way. With the Presidential election occurring at the same time as balloting for U. S. Senator, it will be interesting to see if either Obama or Romney provide a coattail effect assisting other candidates in their parties.
Page 13

Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Исходное описание:

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Indiana Statewide Voter Survey EXEC SUM Aug 2012

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Market Research Insight

Introduction & Methodology

Indiana Election for U. S. Senate

Senate Awareness and Opinion

Total Awareness Hard Opinion Recognition Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

Total Awareness Hard Opinion Recognition Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

CANDIDATE NAME RECOGNITION Total Awareness

OPINION OF CANDIDATES Favorable Unfavorable

27% Richard Mourdock 26%

26% Joe Donnelly 14%

CANDIDATE OPINION RATIOS

Those younger are also 68% aware and responded 25%

Election for U. S. Senate

Such gender gaps based upon political party are typical in

Indiana Election for Governor

Governor Awareness and Opinion

Total Awareness Hard Opinion Recognition Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

Total Awareness Hard Opinion Recognition Ratio Favorable/Unfavorable

CANDIDATE NAME RECOGNITION

OPINION OF CANDIDATES Favorable Unfavorable

36% Mike Pence 18%

16% John Gregg 9%

CANDIDATE OPINION RATIOS

Political Party Identification

Total Democrat Total Republican

Вам также может понравиться