India in Afghanistan

As it prepares for a withdrawal of its combat forces in Afghanistan, the United States has been particularly vocal about a larger Indian role in that country. The Strategic Partnership Agreement between India and Afghanistan is confirmation that New Delhi is willing to take on such a role. India, with a commitment of $1.2 billion through 2013, is already the sixth largest donor to Afghanistan, It has been involved in diverse development projects in infrastructure, education and agriculture. The agreement signed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in New Delhi goes beyond such development and humanitarian assistance. India is to also assist as mutually determined, in the training, equipping and capacity building programmes for the Afghan National Security Forces. In addition, the two countries will hold a regular strategic dialogue with the aim of intensifying mutual efforts towards strengthening regional peace and security. Significantly, two MoUs were also signed for the development of minerals and natural gas in Afghanistan, which is said to hold mineral deposits worth $1 trillion. If all this is a reflection of friendly ties between India and Afghanistan, it comes with the discomforting knowledge of the fraught nature of geopolitics in the region. Pakistan is bound to view the agreement with unease the Pakistani security establishment has been suspicious even of India's development assistance to its western neighbour. The suspicion is quite self-serving: it heightens the bogey of Indian encirclement of Pakistan, provides justification to the Pakistan Army's idea of building strategic depth in Afghanistan, and strengthens the military's position within Pakistan. That the India-Afghanistan agreement has come at a time when Afghan-Pakistan relations are at a particularly low point does not help. After the killing of former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani, linked by both Kabul and the U.S. to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, President Karzai has called off reconciliation talks with the Taliban. But this makes it more important for India to dispel the notion that its increasing involvement in Afghanistan is aimed at marginalising Pakistan. India has legitimate interests in Afghanistan and the friendly ties between the two run deep into the past. Equally, Pakistan and Afghanistan are unique neighbours, with shared bonds of culture, ethnicity, language, and religion. As President Karzai himself pointed out, while India is a friend to Afghanistan, Pakistan is a twin brother. In the interests of regional peace, New Delhi must take this opportunity to declare a willingness to work with Pakistan for stability in Afghanistan.

Breaking conventions
In his efforts to shield Chief Minister Digambar Kamat from charges of involvement in illegal mining, Goa Speaker Pratapsinh Rane was not only being politically partisan he was also bending rules and breaking conventions. After declining to table the report on illegal mining prepared by the Public Accounts Committee, which was headed by the Leader of the Opposition Manohar Parrikar, the Speaker reconstituted the PAC. True, the term of the PAC had ended, and the new chairman, Vijay Pai-Khot, is also from the main opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party. But in blatant disregard of established legislative procedure, Mr. Rane chose not to consult the BJP leadership on the change. Mr. Parrikar appears to have been kept out solely because of his role in drafting the report, which was a damning indictment of the government. In any case, Mr.

Rane ought to have tabled Mr. Parrikar's report in the Assembly, instead of looking for excuses for not doing so that a majority of the members of the PAC, four of seven, had not signed it, and the report was, therefore, no more than a draft. The PAC, as was to be expected, was divided on party lines, with three members of the ruling Congress and one from the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party disagreeing with the findings. The proper course for the Speaker would have been to table the report in the House, and allow an honest debate on illegal mining in the State. That this was not done gives rise to suspicion that senior leaders in the Congress and in the government have a lot to hide. It lends credence to the allegations of irregularities in renewing mining leases, of non-payment of mining royalties, and of damage to the environment. The PAC report followed up the findings of the Comptroller and Auditor General on revenue loss to the government in iron ore export. The increased demand for iron ore in China made mining extremely lucrative, and illegal mining worth the risk. Indiscriminate mining over the last few years has contributed to the depletion of forest cover. Instead of facing up to these hard facts, the Kamat government launched into a cover-up operation. By all accounts, Chief Minister Kamat, who holds the mining portfolio, does not want an impartial probe into the issue. Under these circumstances, the only option is to have the Central Bureau of Investigation inquire into what the PAC report refers to as a clear nexus of politicians, bureaucrats in the Mines Department, local police officers and officers from the Forest Department in illegal mining. The choice before Mr. Kamat is stark: make way for such investigation, or quit.

Politics in post-Dasain Nepal

There are mixed signals on the possibility of a deal on peace and the constitution, with the government and the opposition singing different tunes. As Nepal limps back to normality after the end of its biggest festival when the country shuts down for five days, politicians take a break, and even newspapers stop publication Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai faces a formidable challenge. The deadlock over the peace and constitutional process has persisted since his election in late August. He and his party chairman, Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda,' have had to confront both an assertive opposition, and a backlash from their own party comrades led by senior vice-chairman Mohan Vaidya Kiran.' Besides insisting on a package deal' in the peace process, the main opposition, the Nepali Congress (NC), has also blocked having any discussion on the Constitution, saying that the peace process came first. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) has demanded the scrapping of the four-point agreement between the Maoists and the Madhesi parties, calling it anti-national.' Mr. Kiran's faction too has opposed the four-point deal and the handover of keys of weapon containers to the Special Committee for Supervision, Integration and Rehabilitation of combatants. His group launched street protests against their own party's decisions, and refused to join the cabinet.

Since his return from New York after taking part in the U.N. General Assembly in late September, the Prime Minister has stepped up consultations this includes hosting a pre-Dasain festival dinner for top leaders but without any visible outcome. Leaders then promised of a breakthrough' after the holidays.
Hopeful PMO

There are mixed signals about the possibility of a broad-based deal. Dr. Bhattarai's chief political adviser, Devendra Poudel Sunil,' told The Hindu that a package deal' was imminent and recent talks with the NC had been positive. We are close to an agreement on details of the peace process. There is also a consensus on a mixed electoral system, and a mixed form of government, and we have agreed to be flexible about the number of federal provinces. We can complete regrouping of combatants and have a first draft of the Constitution by November 30. The Prime Minister's press adviser, Ram Rijhan Yadav, added that the real problem was that the NC feared that it would be wiped out in the next election if Dr. Bhattarai succeeded. To share ownership, we have proposed that the NC president, Mr. Sushil Koirala, should lead the next government which will hold elections. But they are still not clear.
Sceptical opposition

Dr. Bhattarai hopes to achieve progress in the peace process before his visit to India on October 21. The Opposition is not as hopeful. NC leader and influential member of the Special Committee, Dr. Minendra Rijal, told The Hindu that he saw no chance of a deal if the Maoists continued to shift goalposts,' pointing to three problems. He said, On modality, the Maoists want to create a separate unit of Maoist combatants within the army. We are open to integrating some of their combatants into security organs, but allowing one party to have its own army within the national army is unacceptable. The second issue is rank. The Maoists want to use their own hierarchy, but they should be awarded ranks based on the criteria of security forces. How can a Maoist fighter, with the same degree of experience as say an army officer, be given a more senior position in an established security organ? The third problem is that while the Maoists want their combatants to be given a handsome cash package as rehabilitation, the NC is keen on long-term training packages that would help them be economically productive.
Pressure

Senior NC leader Bimalendra Nidhi added that trust levels were still low, as Maoists had not implemented their other promises like returning seized property and dissolving the paramilitary structure' of the Young Communist League.

Given the impasse, the Constituent Assembly (CA) chairman Subash Chandra Nemwang met political leaders over the weekend and urged them to arrive at a deal as soon as possible. He urged the Maoists as the biggest party, and one which leads both the dispute resolution subcommittee in the CA, and the Special Committee' to expedite dialogue with other forces. Dr. Bhattarai recognises that time is running out for him, with the CA's term expiring in less than 50 days. Sources close to him say that he will make a concerted push over the next week to reach out to the Opposition. While there is an opening, given the deep mistrust, finding common ground will not be easy.

Is Vladimir Putin's Eurasia all about reliving the old dream?

The Russian Prime Minister's union plan is not meant as a return to the Soviet past, but he would do well to check precedent. In Eric Ambler's masterly interwar thriller, The Mask of Dimitrios, the puppet master pulling the strings as a seedy Europe slides hopelessly into war is the shadowy Eurasian Credit Trust. The name was deliberately chosen. For most of the last century, Eurasia was scarcely a neutral term: it evoked the whiff of racial degeneration, the prospect of civilisation overrun by eastern hordes. But now comes the Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, perhaps looking to lift the attention of a restive public at home to something more elevated than a peremptorily staged presidential succession, supporting the idea of creating a Eurasian union of former Soviet-bloc nations that could become one of the poles of the modern world, serving as an efficient link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region. Putin explicitly denies that this is about rebuilding the USSR. Nevertheless, there has been a lot of talk of Eurasia since the collapse of the USSR and there is a close connection between the Eurasia concept and Soviet history. And in a world where EU membership is effectively barred to Russia, and where the EU is promoting its own eastern partnership, led by Poland and Sweden to intensify European links with other former Soviet republics, one can see the logic in Russian efforts to extend internal markets, remove barriers to labour mobility and at the same time win the fight for the hearts and minds of the inhabitants of its western gateways, above all in Ukraine. Politicians like the occasional grand vision, especially one with historical resonance. Yet will all this be worth the effort? The precedents are not reassuring. Today some historians remind us that the third world was so called precisely because of the sustained tussle for its allegiances in the 1950s and 1960s between the first and second worlds. Yet all of this can be exaggerated. The second world was concentrated on eastern Europe, and other member states came and went. The rise of China weakened the ideological prestige of Moscow. And none of it was ever a match in purely economic terms for the astonishingly powerful global alliance system put together by Washington, linking the powerhouse economies of western Europe and east Asia with the oilproducing states of the Middle East.

Lesson to learn from Turkey

The first world definitely won that particular struggle and globalisation by which I mean the extraordinary combination of industrial productivity growth in American partners such as Japan and South Korea with the financial flows that reshaped finance after the 1970s ultimately brought the Soviet second world to its knees, both because it simply could not compete internationally and because much of eastern Europe had become addicted to western debt. There is a lesson here to be learned, surely, from an earlier foray into a kind of Eurasianism by Turkey. In the early 1990s, the then President Turgut Ozal imagined a coming Turkish century based on a new union among the Turkic-speaking states of the Eurasian heartlands. After his death, it became abundantly clear that the choice between orienting the Turkish economy east or west was no kind of choice at all. Having learned that lesson, the Erdogan government is pursuing a sort of post-imperial foreign policy of its own. In short, it is no wonder Putin stresses his new vision of deeper integration is not meant as a return to the Soviet past. The question is whether there is any alternative model that makes sense for his proposed union. If the coupling of the Russian economy to the southern Stans brings with it a decoupling from the more powerful regional dynamos to its west and east, it will end up as a drag, not a spur, to growth and Russia will pay a heavy price for an old-fashioned dream of imperial glory. (Mark Mazower teaches history at Columbia University, New York.) Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2011

An unpopular verdict
It is doubtful if the death sentence awarded to Mumtaz Qadri, the policeman who shot dead Salman Taseer, the Governor of Pakistan's Punjab province, can stem the extremism that has the country in its grip. Qadri confessed to the January 4 killing, proudly defending his action in court as a religious duty. He argued that Taseer had offended the sensibilities of all Muslims by his campaign to save a Christian woman sentenced to death on the charge of apostasy, and by supporting a move to amend the country's blasphemy laws. A frighteningly large number of Pakistanis approved of Qadri's act of murder. He became a hero, and lawyers volunteered to defend him in court. Nine months later, his popularity has not waned. After the court verdict, his supporters were out on the streets protesting it and threatening that by punishing one Qadri, you will give rise to a thousand Qadris. His lawyer has said that as the judge read out the verdict, Qadri recited verses from the Koran, accepting his death sentence as a sacrifice of his life for the Prophet. It is not clear if that means he will not contest the verdict in a higher court. There has been an undeclared moratorium on implementing the death sentence since the Pakistan People's Party came to power in 2008. It is admirable that the judge, who was asked by Qadri's defence to decide the case on religious rather than legal grounds, had the courage not to succumb to the pressure. With Qadri's supporters already announcing rewards for killing the judge, it falls on the Pakistan government to provide him protection. Since Taseer's assassination, and the killing soon thereafter of Shahbaz Bhatti, the Minister for Minorities who supported Taseer's campaign, the fear of death has silenced the bravest moderate voices in Pakistan. The world-wide shock and outrage over the killings seem to have had little effect in the country a 13-year-old Christian girl who misspelled the Prophet's name was

expelled from school recently on the charge of blasphemy. The government has dropped the move to amend the blasphemy law so as to make the process of registering complaints far more difficult than it is now; the member of Parliament who moved the Bill lives under the shadow of a death threat. This sorry state of affairs owes much to the long-term policies of the Pakistani state. Its policy of encouraging religious radicalism in the pursuit of regional strategic goals has perpetrated such horrors that there should have been a serious rethink by now. If this has not happened, it is because Pakistan has yet to produce a truly visionary leadership.

A visionary passes
When Steve Jobs was asked in 1985 why people should make a heavy investment on a new computer built by Apple, he replied that if one had asked Alexander Graham Bell about the possible uses of a telephone, he would not have been able to say. Moreover, he envisioned a time when computers like the one he had made would be linked to a nationwide communications network. That uncanny understanding of the future course of technology, the intuition, vision, and courage necessary to build it marked the extraordinary life of Steve Jobs. When he died on Wednesday at the age of 56, he left the venture he co-founded in his parents' garage the most valuable technology company in the world. A restless diviner of the digital future, Jobs made things for people before they knew they needed it. The first Macintosh computer brought technologies such as the graphical user interface and the mouse to the mainstream, scoring a giant leap over text-based displays. The iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad were products of his belief that humans, as instinctive users of tools, would love them. These creations successfully disrupted the universe of gadgets and entertainment, creating new benchmarks for products. A quarter century ago, at a time when the computer business was focussed on big corporations and mainframes, Jobs pursued a vision to take the productivity of the computer to the small businessperson and the home user. He used innovation and reliability as growth engines. He was the digital woodworker who never compromised on design, materials, or craftsmanship, in hardware and software. Early in his career, Jobs argued that creativity was an asset of the young. As people grew older, they got stuck in the patterns etched in their mind by their thoughts. Companies with many layers of middle management filtered out the passion for products. Jobs was the great exception mercurial, driven, and eager to connect the dots of the future till the end. Unceremoniously thrown out of the company he co-founded, he returned to it enormously enriched with creative ideas. Despite suffering from a rare form of pancreatic cancer diagnosed soon after he unveiled the iTunes music store, he persevered with the development of new products such as the iPhone. In his famous commencement address at Stanford University in 2005, he reflected on the inevitability of mortality: Your time is limited, so don't waste it living somebody else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma which is living with the results of other people's thinking ... And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. This summed up the life and work of a college dropout who, by connecting the dots and having the courage to follow his heart and intuition, changed the world.

Cities and climate change

Rapid urbanisation has enabled cities to become engines of economic growth and helped reduce urban poverty levels. But the same process has made them highly vulnerable to the severe effects of climate change. Although cities use only two per cent of the land mass, they are responsible for 75 per cent of human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released into the atmosphere, making them the biggest contributors to global warming. To bring world attention to this disquieting fact, UN Habitat has chosen the theme of Cities and Climate Change for this year's World Habitat Day. The larger objective is to drive home the point that unless growth is intelligently planned for and energy use patterns are rethought radically, cities run a big environmental risk, which would make them susceptible to climate-change-induced disasters such as sea level increase and frequent flooding. Urban sprawl, combined with unsustainable transportation planning and energy guzzling building practices, has been the main source for the GHG emission. Urban waste now accounts for only 3 per cent of total emissions, but given the accelerated expansion of urban populations, increasing waste volumes could become a big concern in the conceivable future. How have the Indian policymakers measured up to these challenges? A mission on sustainable habitat has been constituted as part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change. Instead of seriously promoting a green growth model and pushing for radical reforms in urban planning, the mission has been pursuing an ineffective incremental approach. It has not influenced any major policy shifts at the State or city level. Despite the rapid increase in commercial building construction, the new Energy Conservation Building Code, framed four years ago, is yet to be made mandatory, nor have the States integrated it into their building regulations. Given the present trends, electricity-related emissions are likely to increase by 390 per cent in four decades (UNEP, 2010) and could cost the cities dear. It is now established that every one per cent increase in the density of urban areas would reduce the carbon monoxide level by 0.7 per cent. Specific environmental targets have not been built into the urban planning process. A highdensity, poly-nodal, public-transport oriented urban pattern that would reduce travel distances and encourage non-motorised travel has not found favour with India's city planners. It is vital that urban and climate change policies synergise at the local body level and a sustainable growth pattern is adopted on priority. Simultaneously, the resilience of cities, particularly of their poor areas, has to be vastly improved so that they can better manage the impact of climate change.

How pathogens are killed

Inside our body can be found the bloodiest of battlefields, where millions of organisms are massacred daily, without cease. It is a battle waged by our body's robust immune system against a wide variety of pathogenic bacteria, virus, fungi, and parasites. What makes the defence mechanism powerful is the two-level protection conferred by the immune system. The innate immune system that serves as the first line of defence is not antigen-specific; it readily targets all pathogenic organisms the moment they enter the body. The antigen-specific adaptive immune mechanism acts as the second line of protection to keep us healthy. This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Bruce A. Beutler, Jules A. Hoffmann, and Ralph

M. Steinman for revolutionising our understanding of the immune system by discovering the key principles that activate the defence mechanism. Beutler and Hoffmann will share half the prize money for discovering the receptor proteins that recognise micro-organisms and activate the innate immunity. In 1996, Hoffmann found that the Toll gene was responsible for sensing pathogenic micro-organisms and that its activation was required for mounting innate immune response. Two years later, Beutler discovered that components of micro-organisms bind to Tolllike receptors located on many cells. The binding activates the innate immunity, which results in inflammation and destruction of the pathogens. The other half of the prize money was awarded to Steinmann for discovering, way back in the 1970s, that dendritic cells were responsible for adaptive immunity. As they are antigen-specific, dendritic cells take time to react to an invading organism on first exposure; but immunological memory allows them to react more rapidly to the same antigen on subsequent exposures. This is the attribute researchers exploit while designing preventive vaccines. Adaptive immunity holds great medical promise. The immune system can be directed to attack the tumour. Blocking the excessive production of cytokines when diseases show up can ameliorate autoimmunity. Even preventing autoimmune diseases may become possible when certain cells of the immune system are successfully silenced. Steinmann will go down in history as not just a highly worthy Nobel Prize winner. He was (as a Rockefeller University statement explains) diagnosed with pancreatic cancer four years ago ... his life was extended using a dendritic-cell based immunotherapy of his own design, and he died three days before his Nobel was announced.

Who are the poor?

The controversy over who in India is poor enough to receive state support has been partially laid to rest. A joint statement by the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission and the Minister for Rural Development has declared that data collected by the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC), 2011 will be the basis for identifying those deemed eligible for entitlements under various central government programmes. Indias official poverty estimates based on the Planning Commissions methodology will not be used to cap the number of households considered eligible. The immediate need for this clarification was the controversy over an affidavit filed by the Planning Commission in a case in the Supreme Court. That affidavit was doubly problematic. On the one hand, without qualification, it declared a particular per person daily expenditure as the level at or below which a person was officially poor. On the other hand, given the context, it implicitly suggested that this figure provided the benchmark to assess how many of Indias citizens qualified as eligible for state subsidies or support. The numbers that defined a person as poor appalled the media and the public: a measly Rs.32 or less in urban areas or Rs.26 or less in rural areas in a day. What is not adequately stressed is that even these figures represent a considerable improvement on what used to be Indias much-discussed poverty line computed by inflating an expenditure level from 1973-74 that ensured an adequate calorific intake. It was when that original poverty line was being considered as a possible cap to identify beneficiaries eligible for government support that officialdom too realised its gross inadequacy. What followed was an effort by the Suresh Tendulkar Committee to revise upwards the poverty line, applying principles that were

arbitrary. This effort was not without intent. It furthered the official agenda of curtailing subsidies, including those on food. Reducing subsidies required a step-wise process in which the Tendulkar Committee estimates played a part. The first of these steps was to move from a PDS that offered self-selecting universal access to one that was targeted at those below the poverty line. The second was to identify a set of indicators the prevalence of which could help identify the BPL population. And the third was to apply those indicators with a severity that ensured that only that proportion of the population in individual States that were under the poverty line would qualify for state support. Experience suggests that the consequence of such targeting is that many deserving support are left out, whereas many not needing it are identified as eligible. Universal access is the solution and the additional costs are unlikely to be high. This, unfortunately, is the lesson that the current retreat to the SECC does not fully take account of.

Camerons Libyan script

British Prime Minister David Cameron may have thought he had arrived on the world stage when he addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 22 and defended military intervention in other countries, ostensibly on liberal humanitarian grounds. At first sight, he seemed to have a case. Mindful of the debacle of the illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq, he had insisted throughout that any intervention in Libya must comply with international law, and he had given his Cabinet all the legal advice he had received. He had also stood by the principle, even under pressure of events, that British military action under the Nato umbrella should cause no harm to civilians. By Mr. Camerons lights, the action against the Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qadhafi has been a success. Mr. Qadhafi is nowhere to be seen. The rebel group, the National Transitional Council (NTC), has been recognised by the U.N. as well as by a large number of countries. Libyan civic bodies are not being abolished as their Iraqi counterparts were; and the NTC has opposed reprisals against those who remained loyal to the former ruler. But there are serious problems with such an innocent narrative. To start with, the intervention would have been politically much more difficult without the approval of the League of Arab States (the Arab League), which soon reversed its position. The overthrow of Mr. Qadhafi would have been militarily impossible without Natos air support, which has meant no fewer than 24,789 sorties, including 9240 strike sorties, to date. In defiance of the applicable U.N. Resolution, Britain refused even to rule out deploying ground troops. Mr. Camerons claim that the Libyans liberated themselves is patently false. Moreover, the British Prime Ministers continuing silence over brutal repression in Bahrain, for example, exposes his liberal interventionism as highly selective. It has now emerged that, in the past, Britain and the United States offered Tripoli prisoners under the notorious rendition programme, and that Britain gave the Qadhafi regime details of exiled Libyan dissidents. But what undermines Mr. Camerons case above all else is the fact that he raised no objections when the NTC rejected Mr. Qadhafis offer to become a figurehead at the top of a reconstituted Libyan state. What is clear from an analysis of the Libyan drama is that the U.K. and its allies were after regime change but Mr. Cameron himself wanted more. Just as Tony Blair infamously did, he wanted war.

Stopping the loot

A robust new law to regulate mining in India is overdue. The proposed Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Bill, 2011 is the central government's response to a full-blown crisis in the sector. There are several serious issues that the legislation promises to address, such as sharing of profits with project-affected people, environmental sustainability, competitive bidding to improve returns to States, and transparency in grant of permits. A major challenge the law must confront is illegal mining. Under the federal structure, the State governments are the owners of minerals located within their boundaries and issue mining leases under the empowering Central law, the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957. As recent experience has shown, the law is virtually a dead letter; and illegal extraction, transfer, and export of millions of tonnes of minerals, including iron ore, has become rampant. This loot of finite natural resources has gone on despite the powers available to the State governments under Section 23(C) of the 1957 Act to stop the practice. It is not just that they have failed to act; they have egregiously aided the activity in some cases. The reluctant arrests of influential politicians in Karnataka and Goa point to the rot. The enquiry by the Justice M.B. Shah Commission instituted by the Centre to go into illegal mining must be unsparing and present the complete truth. It is vital that the Commission unravel the factors that facilitated massive unlawful appropriation of public wealth. This will aid investigation of specific cases and prosecution of the guilty. There are also pointers to the unethical tactics adopted by mining companies to smother and even co-opt opposition. In some instances, they have ploughed funds into communities, inducting local labour to create a sense of prosperity. The consequential environmental destruction, loss of agriculture, and harm to public health have been staggering. The State governments have not been serious about constituting State Coordination-and-Empowered Committees, as suggested by the Centre. These panels should include representatives from the Railways, Ports, and Customs to check the movement of minerals. Many States have formed task forces for enforcement only on paper. The result has been all too predictable. Union Minister Dinsha J. Patel has told Parliament that there were 43,317 illegal mining cases in 2010 up to September compared with 41,578 for the whole of 2009. The new legislation, which provides for speedier and effective prosecution of the guilty through special courts, must be enacted quickly and used by all States to do justice to the people of India.

Littered space
A one-inch long piece of debris in space travels at 7.5 km per second, about 30 times the speed of a jumbo jet. It can easily destroy a satellite in orbit; and a centimetre-long fragment can seriously damage a satellite. Researchers are currently tracking some 22,000 junk objects from small bits of debris to large satellites. There are about 500,000 waste fragments between 1 cm and 10 cm in length. The amount of junk accumulating in space has been growing over the last five decades, and is estimated to triple in the next two decades. Little wonder that a recent report by the U.S. National Research Council warns that the amount of debris in space has already reached a tipping point. The increase in debris can come in two ways addition of new material from broken satellites and spent rocket stages, and newer and smaller objects thrown up by the collision of two waste materials. For instance, in 2009, the collision of two satellites over Siberia a defunct Russian military satellite (Cosmos 2251) and a functioning

U.S. Iridium satellite created nearly 1,700 waste items. But even more waste was created by the testing of an anti-satellite weapon by China in January 2007 when an obsolete Chinese weather satellite was struck by the weapon. According to Nature, nearly 40,000 particles between 1 cm and 10 cm, and around 800 pieces of more than 10 cm in length, were generated by this collision. In all, the catalogued debris fragments stood more than doubled by the two incidents. Clean-up strategies have to contend against several odds. For one thing, by its very nature, the task of removing the waste is formidable and prohibitively expensive. Secondly, it is dogged by legal problems, which are a legacy of the Cold War. Under international law, no nation can salvage or collect the space objects of other nations, and this applies to debris orbiting in space! It was time that countries urgently revisited this absurd legal position. The space environment is becoming increasingly hazardous to spacecraft and astronauts. More recently, the crew of the International Space Station had to take shelter inside the Soyuz spacecraft as a junk item narrowly missed hitting the station. A similar incident occurred in 2009. Unlike the space station that has special shields for protecting it, the satellites are highly vulnerable to debris strikes. Providing better protection and indulging in debris avoidance manoeuvres are currently the only ways of avoiding damage from impact. But there is yet another problem: these measures are increasing the cost of spacecraft design and operation.

Al-Awlaki, al-Qaeda and drones

The killing of Anwar al-Awlaki in a drone attack in Yemen shows the extent to which the C.I.A has succeeded in putting together an effective intelligence gathering system on the ground to track al-Qaeda's leadership. It is the second important catch for the United States after the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan earlier this year. Awlaki had been on the C.I.A radar ever since a U.S. military doctor killed 13 fellow soldiers at a Texas military base in 2009. Immediately before that incident, the medic had exchanged emails with the American-born Yemeni cleric who lived and preached in the U.S. until 2002. Awlaki was said to have inspired others arrested in the U.S. for terrorist plots, such as the Nigerian underwear bomber,' and the Pakistani-born Times Square bomber. He was also linked to the 2010 airline parcel bomb, and though he was never named in the 9/11 attacks, three of the bombers were said to be in frequent contact with him. President Barack Obama has described him as the chief of external operations of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. But his role was more of a propagandist whose fluent English and insider knowledge of the west appealed to the young American and British Muslims al-Qaeda sought to radicalise and recruit. Also killed in the attack was another American citizen, Samir Khan, who was the editor of al-Qaeda's magazine Inspire. More than Awlaki's elimination, the gain for Washington would be the panic and insecurity that the manner of his killing is likely to have created in the top al-Qaeda leadership: from a Hellfire missile fired by an unmanned plane that had the information to pinpoint his location exactly as he travelled with companions across a desert in North Yemen. Believing the al-Qaeda's Yemen operations were now a bigger threat than what was left of it in Pakistan, the C.I.A sought to expand its covert war against the group by building a secret base in the Arabian peninsular region earlier this year. Awlaki's killing would seem to be a fairly quick

payoff. As Pakistan and Yemen are thought to cooperate in the C.I.A's drone operations, the question of U.S. violation of the national sovereignty of those countries finds no resonance in the world today, despite the dangerous precedents it sets in international relations. It is ironical that Awlaki's killing has drawn protests against the Obama administration's denial of due process to an American citizen. Something is clearly wrong if American rights activists can work up so much outrage on behalf of a fellow citizen linked to al-Qaeda but not for the innocent civilians who perish in C.I.A's drone attacks in Pakistan.

Necessary but not good enough

A political declaration adopted recently by more than 30 world leaders and 100 senior Ministers at the United Nations General Assembly is a welcome first step in tackling four noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. The declaration calls on all governments to advance the implementation of multi-sectoral, cost-effective interventions in order to reduce the impact of the common NCD risk factors without prejudice to the right of sovereign nations to determine and establish their taxation policies, other policies, where appropriate. Unfortunately, the consensus declaration is a let-down when it comes to committing to robust measures, including legislation, for taming the risk factors related to the NCDs. Evidently, pressure from the food and beverage industry on the governments of some rich countries stymied forward-looking efforts to discourage the consumption of unhealthy food and to regulate harmful market practices. We know that policyled solutions aimed at the prevention and control of NCDs by taming the risk factors do work: this can include banning a practice, product or ingredient; mandatory labelling; or limiting the quantity of an ingredient in a product. Ban on smoking at work and public places and mandated pictorial warnings on tobacco products have produced good results. WHO Director-General Margaret Chan did well to demand full implementation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and call on the heads of state and government to stand rock-solid against the despicable efforts of the tobacco industry to subvert this treaty. Dr. Chan also did well to speak out against processed foods, very high in salt, trans-fats, and sugar, which were readily available and heavily marketed and had become the new staple food in nearly every corner of the world. Trans-fat increases the risk of cardiovascular disease but the food industry loves it because trans-fat extends the shelf life of products. Denmark took the first bold step in 2003 by banning it; Austria and Switzerland followed in 2009, and a few more countries are likely to mandate a reduction or complete elimination of trans-fat. Salt and sugar cannot be completely eliminated, but their intake can be reduced. There are effective ways of discouraging their consumption for example, banning marketing directed at children and restricting the sale of these products at and near schools. Developing countries like India can do their people a world of good by acting on this knowledge of what needs to be done here and now to reduce their unconscionably high NCD burden.

Justice, at last

In many ways, Vachathi was a test case: not so much for the judiciary as for India's social conscience. In June 1992, this tribal hamlet in northern Tamil Nadu was witness to what brutal law enforcers and callous government officials could do to the poor and the powerless. Women were raped, men were assaulted, houses were looted and destroyed, and cattle were killed, all in the name of upholding law, of preventing the illegal felling and smuggling of sandalwood. The planned, systematic attack on Vachathi was carried out quite brazenly. The 269 persons arraigned as accused by the Central Bureau of Investigation must have thought that they could get away with crimes against the hapless villagers, who were offenders in the eyes of the law. Nothing else can explain the seeming impunity with which they went about the assault on the village. While men in the lower ranks indulged in violence, senior officers watched from a distance. The subsequent attempts at denial and cover-up were indicative of sanction for the attack from elements at the higher levels of the government. That the tribals of Vachathi slowly found their voice in the face of such repression, and fought for justice in the courts during these 19 years with support from social and political organisations and human rights activists, is reflective of the strengths of a democratic society, notwithstanding its obvious inequities and deficits. The wait for justice might have been long and tiresome, but was finally rewarding. That people's struggles can have a decisive impact on the course of justice was clearly demonstrated in the Vachathi case. But what is worrying is that such attacks can happen in the first place. Those given charge of enforcing the law often see themselves as above the law. Uniformed forces, especially, think nothing of trampling on the rights of ordinary citizens. Misuse of power and abuse of authority are seen as perks of office. Security personnel and government officials are themselves steeped in social prejudices, and tend to show little respect for the rights of those lower down in the societal hierarchy. The correct lessons must be learnt from Vachathi. The verdict of the district and sessions court, holding all the 215 surviving accused in the case guilty of various atrocities, should serve as a reminder that the rule of law will have to be upheld everywhere, including in the remotest of villages. Atrocities and violations of rights anywhere shall not go unnoticed, and there can be no refuge for the law-breakers, especially for those from among the law enforcers. Civilised India cannot afford a repeat of Vachathi.

Angela Merkel's moment

After the recent annual IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, which brought together finance ministers and central bank governors of member countries, the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis is not any nearer a solution. Despite considerable pressure from other members, the leading European countries failed to draw up a specific bail-out plan that could stave off default by one or more eurozone countries. That is particularly unfortunate. Recent developments have conclusively established that the eurozone is not an island. Its fast-escalating problems can hardly be confined to its geographical boundaries, let alone the continent's periphery, as was imagined earlier. It is clear that the consequences of a sovereign default will have global ramifications. Even the more optimistic of predictions points to a banking-led liquidity crisis in the aftermath of a default by Greece. As banks dump their holdings of sovereign debt and pull back their loans, the global economy will face a severe credit crunch. Unemployment will rise and, along with it, social unrest. Large banks will cut back on their exposures even to countries

not directly involved in the crisis. The U.S., already witnessing anaemic growth, will be dragged into a double-dip recession. The euro, as a currency, could be a significant casualty. None of these need happen if the eurozone countries had a credible plan of action and, equally importantly, dynamic leadership. Much was expected from Germany, the eurozone's strongest and most influential economy, the very foundation of the euro and the only member with the necessary resources and stature to sustain it. Yet over the past two years, as Greece followed by Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy tumbled into a crisis, Germany has been a reluctant member of the rescue team, clearly unwilling to commit to the costs of deeper fiscal unity in the eurozone. One reason for Germany's inhibitions has been the way the monetary union comprising 17 members, each with different goals and interests stands organised. Every member has a veto and important proposals such as augmenting the European Financial Stability Fund need to be approved by their Parliaments. Political opposition to a greater integration has been the strongest in Germany. Although the ruling coalition lost in some recent state elections, the Bundestag vote that Ms Merkel convincingly won on Thursday to increase Germany's commitment to the eurozone rescue fund is clearly a measure of her own domestic political strength. Whether that delayed action will be enough to shore up the euro and the many wobbly economies on the continent is yet another matter.

Diabetes alarm
New data on the population-level prevalence of diabetes in India underscore the need for a major public health initiative aimed at prevention and control of the condition. Small-scale studies highlighted the problem earlier, but the just-out results of the first phase of the Indian Council of Medical Research-INdia-DIABetes (ICMR-INDIAB) study in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Chandigarh present more robust evidence that diabetes is growing in urban and rural areas. The scale of the challenge is clear from what is now empirically established. In just three States and one Union Territory, the number of people classified as pre-diabetic is an estimated 14.73 million, and 11.88 million are confirmed to be diabetic. These groups represent a significant percentage of the total population. Diabetics form 10.4 per cent of the total population in Tamil Nadu, 8.4 per cent in Maharashtra, 5.3 per cent in Jharkhand and 13.6 per cent in Chandigarh. For pre-diabetics, the percentages are 8.3, 12.8, 8.1 and 14.6 respectively. It is reasonable to assume that the story is not very different in demographically similar States and future data are likely to confirm that. Going by medical evidence, a quarter of the patients with diabetes are at risk for coronary artery disease, eye and kidney damage, foot complications, and the like. These trends are bound to increase disease burdens and health care costs over time. The policy imperative is to identify those at risk through established protocols, initiate prevention strategies, and offer good health care to diabetics. Data from the ICMR-INDIAB study demonstrate that periodic screening can reduce the ratio of new cases of diabetes to known cases. Tamil Nadu fares the best in this regard among the States studied, which points to higher public awareness. A significant finding is that urban residents in all the States had higher Body Mass Index, waist circumference, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and also a higher prevalence of diabetes, than residents in rural areas. Many studies have shown that lifestyle modification plays a major role in preventing the onset of diabetes in pre-diabetics, who have

Impaired Fasting Glucose or Impaired Glucose Tolerance. Treating diabetes involves a much lower cost than managing the serious complications that set in later. The ICMR-INDIAB study presents a more complete picture of diabetes than what has been available at the population level. The insight it provides must inform public health policy. The way to go is to facilitate low-cost testing and expand specialised treatment. In parallel, governments must promote healthier lifestyles through an effective and innovative mix of policy measures.

French Senate goes left

For the first time since the Fifth Republic was founded in 1958, the French political left have won an absolute majority in the Senate. In elections held on September 25, a broad front, ranging from the Communist Party through the Socialist Party (PS) to the Europe Ecologie-The Greens (EELV) and left radicals, gained 175 of the 348 upper chamber seats. The Socialist Party, which now has 127 Senators, is their single largest contingent. The French right, which has traditionally dominated this house, has been badly shaken by the loss of several stronghold seats, including Loiret in north-central France. The Senate is elected by a college drawn from the lower tier assemblies, namely those of the regions, cantons, and municipalities. Across the country, the left have won heavily at all those levels during the last three years and, as municipal councillors comprise 95 per cent of the electoral college, the Senatorial left will now have much greater weight in its dealings with the President. It will be able to direct Senate powers towards controlling the executive, especially by using commissions of inquiry. It will be able to propose legislation, although the lower house, the National Assembly, which is still controlled by President Nicolas Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), retains the last word in the legislative process. The result reflects the public mood in France, the strength and depth of broad left opinion at the grassroots level. As for the clout this provides, the leading Socialist Party Senator, Jean-Pierre Bel, says his party does not intend to be obstructive but will use the Senate's constitutional powers to the full. The political climate is therefore likely to change significantly. President Sarkozy, who has seven months left of his five-year term, is already in serious trouble. He is beset with corruption scandals, including allegations of illegal party funding obtained through kickbacks in arms sales to Pakistan. He is trying to revive a foreign policy mired in the Libyan sands by his own adventurism. His poll rating of 37 per cent, although slightly up owing to the intensification of his anti-immigrant rhetoric, cannot conceal his overall unpopularity. While the Socialist Party still has a lot of work to do before next year's presidential election, the capture of the Senate has reinvigorated the French left. The radically altered membership of the upper house can give Mr. Sarkozy a very rough ride from now on, thereby ensuring that the Socialist candidate has an advantage when French voters choose their next President.

Crisis in U.S.-Pakistan ties

The accusation by the United States that the Haqqani network is a veritable arm of the InterServices Intelligence seems to have hardly embarrassed Pakistan. Instead, following the pattern of defiance that it has shown since Osama bin Laden's killing, the Pakistan Army has made clear

it will not subordinate its strategic interests to those of the U.S. But this new crisis in a rocky marriage may yet pass. The U.S. blames the Haqqani network, a faction of militants allied to the Afghan Taliban and based in the North Waziristan frontier region of Pakistan, for the recent attacks in Kabul. This includes the killing of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani and the attack on the U.S. Embassy some days before that. The July 2008 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul was also traced to the Haqqani network. Islamabad is correct in saying it was the CIA that nurtured Jalaluddin Haqqani the leader from whom the group takes its name during the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan. But that is half the story. The Pakistan military's embrace of the CIA-Saudi-funded jihadists for its own goals in Afghanistan and against India is of no less relevance to the unending tragedy in the region. As the Pakistan security establishment prepares for the so-called end game in Afghanistan, it sees the Haqqani group as its best insurance policy against being sidelined and importantly, against the rise of Indian influence over its western neighbour. The generals in Rawalpindi are confident that the superpower has no choice but to remain dependent on Pakistan to ensure a semblance of peace in Afghanistan and, by extension, in the whole region. Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar's articulation of the message that the U.S. risks losing an ally with its allegations shows that even if the civilian dispensation is at variance with the security establishment, its political space is limited. Rightfully, the All Parties' Conference called by Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani should question the army's continuing links with militants and the internal risk this poses. But the track record of such initiatives, undertaken each time the Pakistan Army finds itself in hot water, shows that they end up endorsing the security establishment and its misguided strategies. Pakistan's ability to stand up to a superpower patron would have been admirable were its agenda clean. All this might be a source of anxiety to India, which depends to an extent on Pakistan's influential allies to force it to rein in groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba. Even so, New Delhi must work to discourage any precipitate action by Washington against Pakistan that may put the entire region at risk.

Miliband senses the mood

Ed Miliband, leader of the British Labour Party, has, on the occasion of the party's annual conference, made a speech that signals a significant departure from the New Labour' vision of the Blair-Brown era (1994-2010). Speaking in Liverpool, Mr. Miliband addressed a national mood of uncertainty and fearfulness about the future, in which ordinary people feel that they are at the mercy of forces and institutions they cannot control and which are indifferent to their fate, and feel further that the rapidly increasing inequalities in British society are threatening Britons' very sense of who they are. Among other things, the Labour leader attacked the Conservative-led coalition government for proposing to cut the maximum tax rate of 50 per cent for those earning over 3000 a week; for planning to cut corporation taxes for banks; and for raising university fees to a level that will leave all but the richest students tens of thousands of pounds in debt. Such moves took courage, as they were guaranteed to draw fire from the Tory-supporting majority of the national press. Mr. Miliband, however, knows that many of the worst features of the last three decades, such as the banking crisis (after which the public bailed the banks out to the tune of almost 1 trillion), rigged markets, the MPs' expenses scandal, and the phone-hacking

by journalists, have created a something for nothing culture in which the predatory and the unscrupulous deprive the honest majority of the things they deserve. The Labour leader was as sharp about poorer people's illegalities and exploitation of state benefits as he was about the plunder at the top, notwithstanding the differences in scale at the two ends of the system. As for detailed policies, these cannot normally be expected on such occasions but Mr. Miliband indicated potentially major new approaches to political economy, including workers' representation on committees that decide directorial pay levels, greater emphasis on ethical conduct in business, and rewards for firms that invest for the longer term. These amount to more than just policy directions stated in the Labour leader's customary low-key manner. They show Mr. Miliband's quiet strength and confidence both in his sense of public feeling and in the best features of British social democracy. What they also reveal is his vision of a very different kind of society from one founded on the self-seeking ethos created by neoliberalism and its retrograde social values. On available evidence, the British public, with 70 per cent willing to consider voting Labour, share that vision.

Valuing biodiversity
Countries endowed with genetic resources contained in rich flora and fauna will welcome the addition of 19 party-signatories to the Nagoya Protocol, which forms part of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. India has been a votary of the accord, which aims at promoting fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the use of genetic resources, and informed, agreed terms of access to such wealth. The protocol also applies to traditional knowledge associated with genetic resources and the benefits flowing from their use. What is important is that the 61 countries that have signed on so far, and others that may follow, must ratify the text of the Convention, for it to enter into force. Once operationalised, it will provide a framework for the drafting of domestic laws in member states. Such legislation is necessary to ensure the transfer of benefits to communities that have nurtured natural resources. India has launched a domestic process under the Biological Diversity Act to document, regulate, and manage its genetic resources. But it has a long way to go in creating comprehensive documentation and involving local communities as stakeholders. The Nagoya Protocol assumes importance in a globalised era of intensive exploitation of natural resources for commerce. Several requests are made to governments for the transfer of genetic resources abroad for research. Often these efforts are sponsored by corporates, particularly in the area of plant genetics for agriculture. It is vital that India strengthens its regime of access and benefit-sharing in such a scenario, a goal that can be aided by the Nagoya Protocol. What must be emphasised here is the importance of protecting the rights of farmers and traditional communities to extant natural resources, avoidance of restrictive patent regimes in agriculture, and the equitable sharing of proceeds of beneficial research. The danger of allowing one-sided commercial exploitation of genetic resources, such as pathogens for vaccine production, was underscored last year by Union Minister Jairam Ramesh who was holding the Environment portfolio at the time. This would merely aid for-profit activities at the cost of the host nation. India, which is scheduled to host the UN Biodiversity summit in 2012, must persuade all industrialised nations, which have a major stake in the plant and other genetic resources of the world, to ratify the Nagoya Protocol and make it a meaningful international instrument. Here is

an unprecedented opportunity for all countries to begin to assign value to their natural capital, and work for the protection of mountains, forests, wetlands, birds, animals, and even lesser forms of life.

Saudi women gain little

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has stirred interest with his September 25 announcement that women would have the right to vote in future municipal elections and would be able to contest as well. Women are also to have seats in the Majlis Al-Shura, the body consulted by the King on a range of public policy issues. The new law is to take effect in the 2015 municipal polls. Campaigners have attributed the King's move to the courage of Saudi women themselves, to Saudi social media, and to the effect of the continuing popular uprisings across West Asia and North Africa. In fact, this modest extension of the franchise to women will be in accordance with a law made in 2005 but never implemented. One of the stated reasons for non-implementation was that there would be problems in running segregated polling booths. In any case, the 2008 elections were postponed to 2009 and then did not take place at all. This time, the Majlis itself seems to have played a part by reviving the issue of women's suffrage. While it has always been able to summon officials and request access to official documents, its powers have been gradually extended, and it can now propose and amend legislation without the ruler's prior approval. The King's announcement might be viewed as an overdue recognition of what should be treated as an inalienable human right but the move is not all it might appear to be. The hardline Salafist clergy who form the country's ulema have, according to the ruler, endorsed this limited form of women's suffrage. The clerics have little to fear at present. The municipal councils are virtually powerless, and even if women can stand for office they will find it extremely difficult to campaign or even to get to the polling stations (as they are banned from driving, not by any written law but by a fatwa). As for the Majlis, it is in no sense a representative assembly, as it is appointed by the King. In contrast, challenges to the driving ban have provoked far stronger reactions, with several women being stopped and questioned; some, clearly under duress, have signed promises not to drive again. The clergy's differing reactions to the issues expose the mutual dependence of the hard-boiled clerics and the royal family. The former, who are suspicious of the more liberal royals, provide the House of Saud with spiritual legitimation in a deeply conservative society. The latter ruthlessly suppress any expression of ideas that implies a departure from Salafist orthodoxy. The two dominant Saudi Arabian institutions evidently fear democracy and equality even more than they fear women at the wheel.

The rupee under pressure

Amidst the turmoil in the stock markets, one might choose to underrate or even ignore the significance of the sudden volatility in India's foreign exchange markets. That would be unfortunate. The rupee's steep fall against the dollar, after a fairly long period of stability, is a development that has major implications not just for exporters and importers but for the macroeconomy. The sharp declines in both the stock markets and in the rupee's external value,

interrelated as they are, have some common features. With the global economy pushed to the brink by the persisting sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone countries, the uncertainty in the global financial markets increased as a natural consequence. Last week, there was a huge sell-off in the stock markets around the world, including India. At the global level, there is a strong demand for dollars as a safe haven. Ironically, all the troubles the United States is facing a sharply lower-than-expected economic growth, persistently high unemployment, and fractious politics have not dimmed the lustre of the American currency. Heightened risk-aversion, which is a direct consequence of the global crisis, has caused investors to liquidate their assets in what they perceive to be riskier markets and repatriate the money to safer destinations. Consequently, the demand for the dollar from exiting foreign institutional investors has risen in India, pushing up its price. In times of great uncertainty as now, it is not the prospect of better return but safety that drives investment decisions. On Monday, the rupee traded around Rs.49.60 to the dollar, perilously close to the psychologically important Rs.50 mark. In the current phase of rupee depreciation, the RBI does not appear to have intervened aggressively, possibly because it wants to conserve its firepower for a future contingency. The foreign currency reserves at around $318 billion may be comfortable, but not sufficient for a long-drawn campaign of intervention. Besides, the negative sentiment is driven entirely by global factors over which the RBI has no control. Also, the growing dependence on short-term flows and the widening current account deficit might neutralise the impact of intervention. As a rule, a depreciating rupee is good for exporters. But this time, the swing is so sudden and sharp that the exporters were, probably, caught off-guard. In any case, many of them would have hedged their positions. These explain why there has not been an adequate supply of dollars in the domestic market. But the truth is that exporters, like importers, prefer stability in exchange rates. The chances are that exchange rate management will be more challenging in the days to come.

A malady, not a crime

Are people who attempt to put an end to their lives criminals? Yes, says Section 309 of the Indian Penal Code 1860, condemning whoever attempts to commit suicide to simple imprisonment for a term which may extend to one year, or with fine, or with both. The obsolete provision flies in the face of modern and humane approaches to suicidal behaviour, which regard those who suffer from this malady as people in need of care, support, and rehabilitation. We now know that suicidal behaviour is determined by a complex matrix of factors including personal experiences, psychological history, the socio-cultural environment, and genetic make-up. The central government's decision to initiate steps to delete Section 309 is certainly overdue. The Law Commission of India recommended its repeal as early as 1971 and, once again, called for decriminalising the attempt to suicide in its 210th report in 2008. As it pointed out, this inhumane provision, which is a form of double punishment, remains on the statute books only in a few countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Singapore, besides India. The view that decriminalising the attempt to suicide will encourage people to take their own lives has no basis. As the International Association for Suicide Prevention has pointed out, there is nothing to show that suicide rates have increased following decriminalisation; in fact, the converse may well be true as decreasing suicide rates in some countries can be related to the medical and

psychological help people who attempt suicide turn to in the absence of fear of being penalised by the law. It is important to stress here that deleting Section 309 does not absolve the state, public authorities, and society at large of the responsibility to prevent suicides. It is the duty of the state to protect and preserve human life, and it can be argued that Section 306 of the IPC, which penalises the abetment of suicide, casts an obligation on public authorities to prevent the loss of life that may result from such acts as fast-unto-death. Upholding the constitutionality of Section 306, the Supreme Court of India observed it was a distinct provision that existed independently of Section 309 (Gian Kaur v. State of Punjab, 1996). In the United Kingdom, the last European country to decriminalise the attempt to suicide, the Suicide Act of 1961 holds people criminally liable for aiding, abetting, and counselling the suicide of another. Decriminalisation is a recognition that suicide is a complex problem with psychological and social dimensions. As the Supreme Court observed, it is decidedly not a manifestation of a base criminal instinct.

Shaming numbers
Among the many forms of gender inequality, perhaps the most insidious is the one related to the sex ratio. India ranks high among countries having an adverse sex ratio, with fewer women than men. The 2011 Census revealed a small improvement in the overall sex ratio, from 932.91 females for every 1000 males (in 2001) to 940.27, but a steep fall in ratio for the 0-6 age group, from 927.31 to 914.23. Now the World Banks World Development Report 2012 has come up with more shaming numbers. After China, India has the highest number of missing girls at birth, that is, the numbers that should have been born in keeping with the average world sex ratio at birth. It is small consolation that in India, the number of girls missing at age zero has come down marginally since 1990. The report, titled Gender Equality and Development, notes that were it not for these two countries, an additional 1.2 million girls would have been born in the world (1 million in China alone). In both countries, the son preference a clear cultural preference for boys combining with the easy availability of technology to discover the sex of the foetus has resulted in sex-selective abortions, a phenomenon Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen terms natal inequality. The high numbers in India show that attempts to tackle female foeticide through a ban on sex-determination tests, imposed under the Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act, have been largely ineffective. China and India also account for the highest excess female mortality after birth, that is, the numbers of girls and women who die prematurely. The disproportionate mortality of girls during infancy and early childhood is the result of discrimination and a lack of access to water, sanitation, and health facilities. In India and some other countries, complications of pregnancy and childbirth are the cause of excess deaths of women in the reproductive age. The World Bank report makes the telling point that despite stellar economic growth in recent years, maternal mortality [in India] is almost six times the rate in Sri Lanka. On the other hand, in sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 1.1 million missing women a majority of them in the reproductive age group the report notes the dramatic impact of HIV/AIDS on the increase from about 639,000 in 1990. From these and other numbers presented by the report, it is clear that, while more women are getting educated and entering the labour force, the gender gap stubbornly

persists in vital domains. These gaps cannot be addressed unless it is first realised that gender inequality is not a womens issue and that it affects the well being of both men and women.

The Arab League resurfaces

Amid the West Asian and North African turmoil, the League of Arab States has begun to raise its profile, a development that bodes well for the whole region. Prompted by popular uprisings, by the Nato-inspired attempt at regime change in Libya, and by the brutalities governments in the region have inflicted on protesters, a committee of the Arab Parliament, to which the League's 22 members send representatives, has recently taken public positions on several key issues. It has proposed suspending Syria and Yemen for their failure to heed popular demands for reform and for cracking down on democratic protests. Significantly, the League rules out any call for international intervention of the kind it opportunistically approved in Libya where, without its agreement, the continuing episode of western military adventurism would have been extremely difficult in the first place. Tripoli, however, remains suspended from the Arab body. The League now appears to be transcending some of its constitutional constraints. It has no supranational powers or enforcement mechanisms to support its broad objective of improving coordination among members on a wide range of matters, including military ones, and it cannot override national sovereignty. As a result, rivalries and disagreements between member states, and external exploitation of these, have at times rendered the grouping almost impotent. It has also been criticised as a body that serves dictators and despots, not ordinary citizens. In 2008, however, its Arab Charter on Human Rights, which is broadly consistent with other international rights instruments, came into force, and its recent expressions of concern over Syria and Yemen mark an important departure from its earlier silence on internal repression. The Arab League can become a genuine forum for the voices of the region's many peoples. Its potential for constructive engagement stands in contrast to that of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which bases its own Declaration on Human Rights in Islam on the Sharia law and has only just abandoned a 12-year campaign to have what it called the defamation of religions incorporated into international human rights law. The League now has a chance to widen and deepen its forward-looking concerns and to remind member-governments that progress towards democracy founded on the protection of human rights is a key element in political stability. That, in turn, will give greater weight to its members' calls for the creation of a Palestinian state. In sum, the Arab League's enhanced standing must be welcomed as a positive factor for the region and the world.

IMF's dire warning

The International Monetary Fund has a creditable record of spotting, and tracking, world economic recovery more accurately than most other global institutions. As such its prognosis has always been keenly watched. Hence its warning, first issued while launching the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook on Tuesday and repeated on at least three different occasions, that the global economy was in the danger zone ought not to be treated as a hyperbole. The onus of taking corrective measures is squarely on politicians round the globe, and not just on those in the

United States who have displayed an amazing disharmony in sorting out key economic issues. As Indian experience too demonstrates, a fiscal policy that is dictated by political considerations cannot complement the monetary policy adequately to achieve key objectives, such as reining in inflation. The global growth forecast for 2011 has been marked down to 4 per cent from 4.3 per cent. That small decrease in percentage terms, however, does not fully reflect the fears and forebodings of the IMF, which stand reinforced by its Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), released almost simultaneously with the WEO. The report serves as an early warning system and recommends policy action to stave off a crisis. There are ample reasons for policymakers of both the developed and the developing countries to worry, as risks of financial instability have increased significantly in the past few months. The global financial crisis that began with the U.S. sub-prime loans and then morphed into a systemic banking problem with international implications is far from being resolved. The sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone countries represented the next stage. Now, there is a political phase where a consensus on fiscal consolidation and adjustment has been eluding the politicians on both sides of the Atlantic. As part of a three-pronged action plan for the developed countries, the IMF has called for a credible, medium-term fiscal adjustment plan. The U.S. should take steps to resolve the problem of overstretched household balance sheets through an aggressive restructuring programme. Thirdly, the banking sector in Europe should be fixed immediately, if necessary through infusion of capital. Developing countries need to avoid a further build-up of financial imbalances. In words that seem prophetic, the IMF has cautioned that countries such as India will face a sudden reversal of capital flows if foreign investors see their growth prospects petering out. In the post-crisis period, country risk assessments have become more important than interest differentials.

AIDS vaccine: a ray of hope

The search for an effective AIDS vaccine began a quarter-century ago and after a series of failures, there finally appears some reason to cheer. The first signs of success are beginning to emerge, ironically, from a trial (RV144) that seemed destined to flop. The two vaccine candidates ALVAC-HIV and AIDSVAX used in the prime-boost trial conducted in Thailand from 2003 to 2009 failed in their prime objectives when each vaccine was tested individually. However, the trial, which involved more than 16,000 healthy volunteers, showed a statistically significant protection rate of 31 per cent in one of the three analyses performed. Further analysis of the trial data has revealed something more interesting. During an AIDS Vaccine Conference held recently in Bangkok, scientists reported the discovery of molecular clues that might have played a crucial role in the vaccines performance. Forty-one volunteers who received the vaccine and contracted HIV, and 205 others who received the vaccine but did not get infected with the virus, were chosen for some detailed investigations. Much to their surprise, the scientists found distinct antibodies that provided protection against or made the volunteers vulnerable to HIV infection. A Y-shaped immune molecule called an immunoglobulin G (IgG) was found in the blood of those who were not infected. It turned out that this molecule had the ability to recognise a particular portion of HIVs outer covering and hence was able to confer better protection. On the other hand, another antibody (IgA) that recognised different portions of the HIVs outer covering made people more susceptible. According to Nature, these

people were 54 per cent more likely to become infected than those who did not have this antibody. This is the first time a clinical trial has provided interesting leads that hold the promise of advancing AIDS vaccine research. Scientists are already planning animal studies to test the effectiveness of these antibodies. Three human trials using the same vaccines are also likely to start on a small scale in Thailand next year. The results from such studies may tell us if the antibodies caused the protection against HIV or if other factors played a role. But one thing is certain the outer covering that conferred protection will become one of the most studied aspects of the virus. Only further trials in different populations can ascertain if the antibodies will be able to confer the same level of protection when used in other HIV vaccines and against other HIV strains. There is a ray of hope, but the need to temper optimism with caution stands out in a field littered with failures and disappointments.

A prince among cricketers

Mansur Ali Khan Pataudi, who passed away in Delhi on Thursday after a battle with interstitial lung disease, was the last of the princely cricketers. Born into privilege his father, the Nawab of Pataudi, Sr., made a century on debut in Sydney in the first Test of the Bodyline series and was the only cricketer to represent both England and India in Tests Tiger (as M.A.K. Pataudi was nicknamed) was a gifted and elegant batsman, a magnificent fielder, and a natural leader of men. Educated at Oxford's Balliol College, he took over as captain of the Indian side when he was just 21 astonishingly, not long after losing vision in his right eye in a car accident. He went on to lead the country in 40 of the 46 Tests he played. Arriving at a time when India was a perennial underdog in the Test arena, he welded individual talents into a world-class team and led it with magisterial self-assurance and rare tactical nous. Sooner than anyone else, he saw that India must play to its strengths, which meant going all out with many-splendoured spin. His jaunty confidence and sanguine attitude rubbed off on his teammates and it was under Tiger that India achieved its first overseas Test series triumph 3-1 against New Zealand in 1968. Hailed as a transformative influence on Indian cricket, Pataudi saw his star fading not long after. Ahead of the tour of the Caribbean in 1971, the chairman of the Selection Committee, Vijay Merchant, used his casting vote to replace Tiger with young Ajit Wadekar at the helm. Wadekar justified the confidence placed in him by leading India to successive series wins in the West Indies and England but Tiger was not one to give up. He made a characteristic comeback, first as a player and then as captain, leading India at home against the West Indies in the close-fought 1974-75 series. He ended his Test career with an average of just over 34 but everyone recognised that in his case greatness could not be measured by statistics alone. Playing with one eye long before the helmet arrived to protect face and skull, Tiger was courage personified against fast bowling. There were times when his batting reached a level of subliminal beauty rarely matched by anyone in that era. More than his double hundred against England in New Delhi in 1964, or any of his five other hundreds, connoisseurs of the game will recall Tiger's 75 and 85 made while nursing a hamstring injury in one leg against Australia at Melbourne in the 1967-68 series. In his retirement, Tiger made valuable contributions to Indian cricket and his incisive and forthright views set him apart from many a temporising expert. Long

before the TV boom gave rise to Indian cricket's cult of celebrity, Pataudi, on and off the field, was the real article a debonair superstar without a peer.

The importance of archaeology

Archaeology in India has progressively changed from antiquarian pursuit to rigorous science. Leading this transformation has been the Archaeological Survey of India. Since its establishment in 1861, it has been digging and discovering precious historical sites, and deciphering and describing thousands of important inscriptions. The 150th anniversary is an occasion for the nation to acknowledge the ASIs commendable track record and reflect on its future. Alexander Cunninghams 1861 memorandum to Lord Canning, which impressed on the colonial power the supreme need to undertake a systematic survey of monuments in India, led to the appointment of the first Archaeological Surveyor. Ten years later, the ASI became a distinct department, with a monthly budget of Rs.54,000. Since then, it has taken up important excavations at sites such as Kusinagara, which provided an archaeological basis for Buddhist history. It recovered the famous Lion Capital at Sarnath, which has become a part of the national emblem. It unearthed key evidence at the urn burial site at Adichchanallur, which spotlighted the unique features of the Iron Age in South India. The high point in the ASIs history was the 1921 discovery of Indus Valley sites at Harappa (by Daya Ram Sahni) and at Mohenjodaro (by R.D. Banerji). While epigraphy, excavation, and setting up site museums were part of ASI activities from the start, the periodic conservation of monuments and sites was taken up only from the 1940s. Here too, much of the work has been first-rate, with the magnificent preservation of the millenniumold Brihadisvara temple at Thanjavur standing out as an example. The ASI has shared its expertise with other countries and done significant work at Bamiyan and Angkor Vat. On the flip side, it has been able to protect only 3,676 historic sites, leaving an estimated 700,000 heritage structures unattended. If this huge deficit can be blamed on poor funding by the government and shortage of trained human resources, the delays in writing and publishing excavation reports and the loss of 35 nationally important monuments to encroachment represent serious professional failures. Another area where the ASI has not done well is in adopting cutting edge technologies for Archaeological Prospection. The way forward is to correct these deficiencies, provide more autonomy to the ASIs regional circle offices, and do regular performance audits. Finally, the ASI must be encouraged to engage local communities in the protection of archaeological heritage, a strategy found to be rewarding in many countries.

A necessary pause at Kudankulam

The response of the State and central governments to the snowballing protest against the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project (KKNPP) has been marked by a sober realisation that popular fears over the safety of the nuclear plant cannot be ignored in the post-Fukushima era. Thanks to this attitude, the hundred-odd protesters who have been on an indefinite fast since September 11 are set to call off their agitation. The Tamil Nadu government has given them an assurance that its Cabinet would call for halting the project until the people's fears are allayed to their satisfaction. Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's letter drawing the Prime Minister's attention to the

urgent need to allay apprehensions voiced by the people evoked an instant response. Dr. Manmohan Singh deputed Minister of State in his office, V. Narayanasamy, to meet the protesters at the venue of their fast in Tirunelveli district, and assure them that safety, rather than power generation, was the government's priority. Here is yet another opportunity for the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd., which is implementing the project, to bring on board the public at large, especially the local communities whose apprehensions have been compounded by fears stoked by traditional opponents of nuclear power, and assure the country of the safety and reliability of the two Russian-made reactors. At the expert level, there has not been any doubt that the design of the two VVER-1000 state-of-the-art reactors installed at Kudankulam is safe but the message has to be taken to the masses. There is no reason, however, to believe that the AIADMK government is against the implementation of this long-delayed project that is expected to boost power generation in Tamil Nadu, which has been suffering from a serious power deficit. Post-Fukushima, it is unlikely that nuclear power projects anywhere in the world are going to enjoy unqualified support from local communities, unless all their concerns and fears are sincerely and transparently addressed. The nuclear establishment need not be dismayed by the obstacle thrown in its path just a few months before the KKNPP first unit was set to be commissioned. Instead, it should address the issue in a democratic manner and not let its traditional culture of non-transparency prevail. The bill introduced in Parliament to set up a Nuclear Safety Regulatory Authority has drawn sharp criticism on the ground that the new body will be captive to the government. Kudankulam offers India a new opportunity to meet the challenge of achieving the highest safety standards in the nuclear power sector under the watch of a truly independent authority.

Another assassination
The assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, former President of Afghanistan and the head of the High Peace Council that is leading reconciliation efforts with the Taliban, has underlined that the prospects of peace in that long-suffering land remain remote. The manner of the killing, by a trusted visitor carrying a bomb in his turban, has an eerie resemblance to the assassination of Ahmed Shah Massoud of the Northern Alliance 10 years ago. Two men posing as television journalists killed the Lion of Panjshir two days before al-Qaeda carried out its horrific attacks on the New York Twin Towers. It was clearly a pre-emptive move to neutralise the Northern Alliance and deny the U.S. a strong ally on the ground in the military retaliation that would follow the 9/11 attacks. Rabbani's assassination is the most significant political killing since that of Massoud. With the Taliban and the Pakistan-based Haqqani network emerging as prime suspects, it is a massive setback to the peace process. An ethnic Tajik who headed the fragile and embattled Afghan government between 1992 and 1996, Rabbani was a hated figure for the Taliban. The feeling was mutual, but he had thrown himself into the efforts by the U.S. and President Hamid Karzai to bring the militants to the negotiating table. Only in June, Rabbani declared that the HPC's efforts had led to a breakthrough in contacts with the Haqqani network and the Quetta Shura. Even Mullah Omar, the Taliban supremo, made some interested noises. The 71-year-old Rabbani was also making overtures to Pakistan in an attempt to repair relations that had soured in the 1990s. The assassination revives doubts about the assumption that some Taliban are ready to do a deal with Washington.

Rabbani himself was not entirely convinced about the reconciliation project. His participation was most likely driven by fears of being left out of any settlement in a post-U.S. scenario. Both the U.S. and President Karzai saw him as vital to the challenge of bringing non-Pashtun groups on board. This task is bound to get more complicated as non-Pashtuns are now likely to turn suspicious about Taliban intentions. For India, the killing means the loss of an ally. Coming barely a week after the Taliban attack on the U.S. Embassy, this terror strike in an area described as the Green Zone of Kabul also nails the U.S. claim, as it withdraws troops from Afghanistan, that western troops have succeeded in weakening the militants. The American envoy in Kabul brushed off last week's attack as mere harassment, saying the traffic congestion in the Afghan capital was now the bigger headache. If only that were true.

No stopping the Palestinian tide

The Palestinian Authority (PA) President, Mahmoud Abbas, has exposed a mass of contradictions in the positions taken by Israel, the United States, and major European Union countries by announcing that on September 23 he would submit to Secretary-General Ban Kimoon a letter requesting full United Nations membership for Palestine. The request will be based on the Palestinian borders as they obtained on June 4, 1967, that is, before the Six-Day War. The U.S. has already said it would veto the proposal in the Security Council, in which case Mr. Abbas will request the 193-member General Assembly to recognise Palestine as an observer state. While not amounting to full membership, that would mean a significant enhancement of Palestine's current observer entity status, which allows it only to maintain an observer mission at the world body. It would enable Palestine to bring actions in the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice, and thereby call Israel to account for its conduct. Palestine would also be able to join a range of U.N. bodies, which it cannot do now. In reaction, Israel is maintaining its refusal to stop illegal construction in the West Bank and other occupied territories, and now hardliners are calling for it to withhold customs revenues which it collects on behalf of the PA and passes on. The Netanyahu government seems unable to see that Palestine as a full U.N. member would also be responsible for any attacks, say from Gaza, on Israel, and that starving the Palestinians will only embitter them further, with the likelihood that support for their elected representatives, Hamas, will grow. The U.S. Congress, for its part, has threatened to stop aid to the Palestinians, but that will damage Washington's already diminished standing in West Asia and North Africa even further. As for the Middle East Quartet (the European Union, the U.S., Russia, and the U.N.), its frantic efforts to revive IsraeliPalestinian talks reveal, in particular, a failure to accept that the 1993 Oslo accords are now a dead letter. With the exception of Russia, the governments involved are flying in the face of global public opinion. About 140 countries in the General Assembly support the PA application to the U.N. One poll puts public support for it in Britain, France, and Germany at 59, 69, and 71 per cent respectively. Even in the U.S., according to another poll, 45 per cent back the bid while only 36 per cent oppose it. Israel and its allies are both trying to deny the justice of the Palestinians' legitimate aspirations and to hold back an unstoppable tide.

Commendable solidarity
The stereotype about wealthy Indians living in the Gulf countries is that they lead lavish, kitschy lives and build ostentatious houses back home. That is unfair. A group of Indians recently pooled in more than Rs.9 million (729,000 dirhams) to secure the release of 14 compatriots jailed in the United Arab Emirates for causing death without intention (for instance, in a road accident or at a work site). Even though these men had served out their jail terms, the local courts ruled that they would not be released until they paid the victim's family anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000 dirhams as diyat, or blood money. In Islamic law, such a payment is made in exchange for a pardon from the family members of the victim. But these men, employed as manual labourers or in other low-paying jobs, had no means to pay the amount laid down by the court. It is commendable that the Indian Community Welfare Committee, encouraged by the Indian Embassy, decided to reach out to these men. It also assisted in negotiating individual settlements, so that in some cases, the families of the victims were willing to accept less than the sum decreed by the court. In another case, an Indian hotelier in the UAE paid a diyat of 3.4 million dirhams to the family of a Pakistani man, leading to the release of 17 Indians who had been arrested for his murder in 2010. Amnesty International had taken up the cause of the 17 men, alleging torture in custody and denial of due process. A majority of the Indians who flock to West Asian countries are semi-skilled or skilled workers; they go in the hope that their earnings, considerably higher than the wages paid at home, will help the family they have left behind lead a better life. But working in a tough, alien environment, with its own set of rules, is not without hazards. Mistakes are bound to be committed, deliberately or unintentionally. Unscrupulous recruiters are known to fleece jobseekers and leave them stranded without travel documents or any other means to fend for themselves. When a worker finds himself in trouble with the local authorities, the sense of helplessness is acute due to the unfamiliarity with the environment and the language, and a lack of awareness about processes in that country and who to contact for help. The reflex is to look towards the Indian government for assistance. But there are limits to what a diplomatic mission can do to help in cases where the host country's criminal laws are involved. Influential members of the Indian community may be better placed to help in such situations, as the initiative in the UAE has shown.

Living through earthquakes

As a natural calamity, powerful earthquakes are in a class of their own, able to strike without warning and capable of creating widespread devastation. So it was with the magnitude 6.8 temblor that struck near the Sikkim-Nepal border on Sunday evening. At least 66 people have been killed and many more injured in India as well as in neighbouring Nepal and Tibet, China. Buildings and roads in Sikkim have been badly damaged. Reports from Tibet speak of landslides disrupting traffic, power, and water supplies. Rain and landslides have hampered relief efforts, and the central government has sent in military and paramilitary units, along with aircraft and helicopters, to help the civilian authorities. Tremors from the quake, which could be felt hundreds of kilometres away, caused panic in many cities, including Kolkata, Patna, and

Lucknow. In Delhi, which experienced a magnitude 4.2 earthquake near the Haryana border earlier this month, the latest episode left many with jangled nerves. This quake should serve as a wake-up call. Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do, goes the old adage. But human-made structures buildings, bridges, power plants and so forth can be designed and constructed to withstand the sort of quakes that might hit a place. An earthquake quickly exposes failures in construction. Valuable infrastructure is destroyed and falling masonry can crush people to death. In recent earthquakes, buildings have acted as weapons of mass destruction, remarked one leading seismologist after the calamitous quake that hit the Caribbean island of Haiti in January 2010, killing tens of thousands of people. Poor quality construction on the island made the earthquake twice as lethal as any previous magnitude 7.0 event. As the crustal plate bearing India steadily pushes against the Eurasian plate, some experts fear that enough stress might have accumulated to unleash a great earthquake in parts of the Himalayas. Such a quake could have disastrous consequences across the highly populated Gangetic plain. Nor are places away from the plate boundary necessarily safe. The powerful quake at Bhuj in January 2001, for instance, claimed thousands of lives and caused havoc across a considerable area in Gujarat. Safety lies in ensuring quake-resistant construction. The Bureau of Indian Standards has laid out earthquake engineering codes for various structures. In addition, the Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) and the Union Government's Building Materials & Technology Promotion Council have published guidelines and brochures on quakesafe construction. Turning a blind eye to such safety requirements will extract a heavy toll when an earthquake strikes.

Risky ways of global finance

The immense debacle in the international derivatives trading desk of a major Swiss bank in London has once again drawn attention to the risky ways of global finance. The facts of the case, as reported, conceal more than they reveal about the risk-rewards system in large international banks. A 31-year-old trader of Ghanaian origin allegedly indulged in fraudulent accounting practices and concealed trading losses while working at UBS, London, his actions dating back to 2008. When these were detected last week, the rogue trader was accused of blowing a $2 billion hole in the bank's balance sheet. It is incomprehensible how a single individual, however well placed, could escape scrutiny by his peers and superiors over such a long period. Nor is it clear as to how the Swiss Bank will refurbish its tattered reputation, although there is a widelyshared view that UBS is strong and resilient enough to withstand the staggering loss. As with such debacles, the post mortem in this case will lead to making promises to shareholders, depositors, and national regulators of better vigilance and internal audit. Important as these are, they will still not address the basic malaise of today's globalised, international banks. The globalisation of finance has altered traditional banking's core structure and values and that is why the latest dealing room debacle at UBS will have far wider ramifications. Banks traditionally do their best to match their assets and liabilities to ensure that the money they borrow from depositors and markets matches the loans they issue. When there is a mismatch the two could be in different currencies or at different maturities, for example trouble often follows. Over the past few decades, global finance has been driven by an enormous mismatch

between the two. Retail and private bank deposits from several countries have supported the expansion of leading banks into global markets. For all the benefits this meant for global trade and commerce, it resulted in a vast increase in risk-taking and a culture of paying extraordinary sums as bonus to managers that most outsiders find abhorrent. For its part, global financial regulation sought to put a lid on the quantum of bonus, hoping to reduce the levels of risk-taking by banks. But such efforts have not always been successful. The U.K.-based Independent Commission on Banking under Sir John Vickers has suggested the ring-fencing of the banks' retail operations to protect domestic deposits from being put at risk by the casino type culture of investment banks. That recommendation needs to be acted upon by other countries as well.

An excellent scheme
In a pioneering initiative, the Tamil Nadu government is providing free laptops to students of government-run and government-aided higher secondary schools, arts and science colleges, engineering colleges, and polytechnic colleges. The scheme, which will cover 912,000 students this year at a cost of Rs.912 crore, is designed to give a major boost to Information Technology literacy. Social welfare programmes intended to increase enrolment and reduce dropout rates in schools are not new to Tamil Nadu, which was the first State to introduce a comprehensive nutritious noon meal scheme. Boys and girls in schools run and aided by government are being provided free uniforms and text books. From this year, under another novel scheme envisaged by Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, pupils in classes X, XI and XII will be given cash incentives to complete schooling. Even in this context, the free laptops scheme is exceptional backed by a serious pedagogic effort, it could have a far-reaching impact on improving access to higher education for boys and girls from poor and needy families across the State. All higher secondary schools in Tamil Nadu have computer labs but students do not get sufficient exposure to computing, not to mention coding and programming. The free laptop scheme could open up a whole new world of knowledge-based opportunities to a generation of students who hope to do well in higher education and then in the job market. As Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google, emphasised recently in his MacTaggart lecture at the Edinburgh International TV Festival, there is a need to reignite children's passion for science, engineering, and maths. I was flabbergasted to learn that today computer science isn't even taught as standard in U.K. schools, he told his British audience while recalling how the British Broadcasting Corporation in the 1980s not only broadcast programming for kids about coding but also shipped more than a million BBC micro computers into schools and homes. Your IT curriculum, he pointed out, focusses on teaching how to use software, but gives no insight into how it's made. That is just throwing away your great computing heritage. Taking a cue from this, Tamil Nadu can forge ahead by introducing computer science immediately after primary school. At present, only classes XI and XII have a structured curriculum in computer science; and though the School Education Department introduced it as a subject in class VI last academic year, intending to extend it up to class X this year, schools have not received textbooks or the syllabus. Equipping every school with the necessary infrastructure and appointing trained computer teachers should be the next big step towards achieving equity and universality in computer education.

German rift shows EU problems

The German coalition government led by Christian Democrat Union Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing its most serious crisis since it took office in 2009. The issue also raises serious questions for the whole European Union. On the face of it, the CDU's problems have been precipitated by the Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Philipp Rsler, who heads the rightwing Free Democrat Party (FDP). This junior partner has defied Ms Merkel's directive against public discussion of the Greek economic crisis by arguing that Greece should be expelled from the eurozone. The third coalition partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has followed suit, calling for the expulsion of all highly indebted member states. Ms Merkel had ordered the silence on Greece with a view to minimising instability in the financial markets, which had been exacerbated by the apparent failure of recent talks between the Greek government and an international troika comprising the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. The highly divisive German debate over the Greek crisis is primarily political in nature. The FDP's impressive vote share of 14.5 per cent in the 2009 general election has plummeted. In provincial elections earlier this year, the party lost its conservative stronghold of BadenWrttemberg to a Green-Social Democrat coalition, and lost all its seats in Bremen, the Rhineland-Palatinate, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Party leader Guido Westerwelle stepped down in May. With its poll ratings now around 3 per cent, the party faces meltdown. For its part, the CSU, which has a majority to defend in Bavaria in 2013, may be distancing itself from Ms Merkel well in advance. After all, EU law does not permit direct bailouts of member states, and the prospective Athens bailout in fact stems from a Franco-German initiative. The German right therefore has some basis for complaining that prudent Germans are bailing out profligate Greeks. As for the Chancellor herself, she has tried only to quell market jitters and has said nothing about the ways EU institutions operate. The Greek budget deficit crisis occurred mainly because the EU's financial bodies failed to restrain the profligacy of the centre-right New Democracy government that was in power between 2004 and 2009. The European Financial Stability Fund, created in 2010, will do little to cure the deadly Hellenic ailment. The backdrop to the German right's opportunism and bloodletting is the deepening democratic deficit within key institutions of the EU.

Shockingly insensitive
Nothing is more reflective of the confusion and mix-up of priorities of the United Progressive Alliance government than the mismanagement of fuel pricing. While struggling to control inflation through monetary policy, the government sees no problem in allowing oil marketing companies to continually raise the price of petrol. The latest hike, by more than Rs.3 a litre, comes on top of the two substantial increases earlier this year. Although diesel price is still regulated, and remains unchanged for now, the repeated increases in the price of petrol have placed an enormous burden on the lower and middle income classes. The rationale for keeping the controls on diesel price is that any increase could affect agriculturists, freight carriers and public transport vehicles but the unintended, and undeserved, beneficiaries of such a policy

have been owners of high-end diesel cars and SUVs. On the other hand, owners of two-wheelers and small cars have borne the brunt of the escalating price of petrol. True, dual pricing for diesel is difficult to implement, but as suggested by the Centre for Science and Environment, other measures could be worked out to prevent misuse of the fuel by rich car-owners. What is clear is that the widening price gap between petrol and diesel has contributed to the rise in sales of diesel vehicles. According to CSE, diesel cars constitute 36 per cent of new car sales in India, and have disproportionately contributed to air pollution. While grappling with the hardships of high inflation, most evident in the sharp rises in the prices of essential commodities, India's middle classes cannot afford the ballooning of their household budgets on account of recurrent petrol price increases. Nor are the poor spared the indirect effects. Waiting in the wings is a proposal to limit the number of LPG cylinders supplied to households paying income tax to between four and six a year. Although a meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers that was to decide this issue on Friday was deferred following open opposition from the Trinamool Congress and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, indications are that the relief might be temporary. Political expediency, and not social commitment, seems to have stayed the hand of the government on this sensitive issue. Targeting subsidies is the name of the game, with the UPA government conveniently ignoring the fact that with social targeting, errors of exclusion are invariably high and the poorer and weaker sections often fall through the safety net. India still needs price controls on petroleum products if hundreds of millions of its vulnerable people are not to be exposed to sudden shocks.

Unrelenting focus
In hiking the policy repo rate by 0.25 percentage point on Friday, the Reserve Bank of India is once again reinforcing its past actions in moderating inflation and anchoring inflation expectations. This is in keeping with the trend that began in March 2010 and has, including the latest hike, taken the policy rate from 3.25 per cent to 8.25 per cent in 12 doses. Yet even such sustained monetary tightening has apparently not been enough. Inflation remains the dominant macroeconomic concern, with the wholesale price index (WPI) rising to 9.8 per cent in August, from 9.2 per cent in July. Inflation rate in non-food manufactured products rose from 7.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent during the same period, suggesting strong and persistent demand pressures. The hike in petrol prices by Rs.3.14 a litre, effected on the eve of the policy statement, will have a direct impact of 0.07 percentage point on the WPI, not to speak of the indirect impact that will be felt only after a lag. Various consumer price indices have risen in the range of 8.4 per cent to 9 per cent in July. Food inflation remains stubbornly high despite a normal monsoon. What is clear is that the high food prices are not a temporary phenomenon but the result of a structural imbalance in demand and supply. Viewed in whatever way, inflation and inflation expectations remain well above the RBI's comfort level. The official expectation is that inflation will start moderating, once the effects of past, cumulative action are felt. Any premature change in the monetary policy will be counterproductive and harden inflation expectations. The clamour for a pause in growth-inhibiting monetary tightening is countered by the argument that while growth has decelerated it has by no means collapsed. Indeed the GDP growth during the first quarter of 2011-12 at 7.7 per cent is

only marginally lower than the previous quarter's 7.8 per cent. Besides, the RBI has conceded that a portion of the growth momentum will have to be sacrificed for the sake of price stability. The central government's finances have worsened during the first four months of the year. An even bigger worry comes from the developed world. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is assuming menacing proportions. High unemployment and weak growth in the United States have prompted the authorities there to undertake some unconventional measures including an ultrasoft monetary policy. However, the weak demand from the developed world has not softened prices of commodities, including petroleum. As the volatile movements in the foreign exchange markets show, India has quite a task in managing its external economy in the face of mounting global uncertainty.

Funding health care

Rising Indias lack of progress towards provision of universal, equitable health care for its people is distressing. The sidelining of the Bhore Committee recommendations of 1946 which relate to ways and means of building a public-funded allopathic health system for the entire population indicates the low priority given to public health in policy. The consequence of this disastrous neglect is that Indians have among the highest out-of-pocket expenditures on health anywhere. The Planning Commission is now considering a universal health insurance scheme. The goal is laudable but the premise is wrong. As the workshop of the Kolkata Group chaired by Amartya Sen pointed out in February 2011, influential policymakers seem to think that private health care with proper subsidies or private health insurance subsidised by the state can meet the challenge. This is unlikely to happen because of the asymmetry of information between providers and users, and the absence of patient empowerment. Moreover, costs and quality of care are poorly regulated. If the central government is sincere about building a strong health care system during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17), it must accept the primacy of public-funded provision, invest heavily in both preventive and curative spheres, and introduce strong regulation. The High Level Expert Group on Universal Health Coverage headed by K. Srinath Reddy has the important task of prioritising the initiatives to be taken up during the 12th Plan. Universal health insurance is one stated goal. Here it is relevant to point out that some classes of citizens, such as children, the elderly, and women, can be comprehensively insured first. By focussing on these vulnerable groups, the National Rural Health Mission can take on an expanded role while new urban schemes can be launched to cut out-of-pocket expenditure substantially. There is also a felt need for oversight in the case of private health care providers. In the absence of benchmarking and scrutiny, hospital costs have hit patients hard. It is worth pointing out that the Affordable Care Act enacted last year in the United States emphasises patient rights through special provisions and mandates the spending of 85 per cent of large insurer premiums on actual care to prevent diversion to administrative overheads, salaries, and executive bonuses. Additionally in India, non-profit initiatives in health care can be invited to play a bigger role. Raising public expenditure on health to 2.5 per cent of GDP by the end of the 12th Plan will be a start; it needs to rise progressively. A cess to fund health care can scale up the effort rapidly.

Unending game in Afghanistan

If there is an overriding message from the Taliban attack on the United States Embassy and NATOs headquarters in Kabul, it is that the tragedy in Afghanistan, scripted to a large extent by the Americans, is no nearer ending than it was two, five, or ten years ago. The U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan shrugged off Tuesdays assault, which lasted 20 hours and left at least 11 Afghans dead, as harassment rather than a direct attack. He would. Over the last few months, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has made out that it has successfully diminished the Talibans fighting capacities. Such spin enables the U.S. to claim a victory of sorts as some 30,000 of its troops are pulled out of Afghanistan, in keeping with the withdrawal President Barack Obama has promised by 2014. In some areas, including Kabul, ISAF has handed over to Afghan security forces. But Tuesdays attack, and two previous attacks on well-protected high-profile targets in the Afghan capital the British Council in August and the Intercontinental Hotel in June have exposed the extreme fragility of the countrys security. It strengthens the hands of those who want western troops to remain in Afghanistan. There are bound to be fresh doubts now about the other part of the U.S. strategy talking to the Taliban, or some sections of it. The U.S. accusation that the attack was the work of the Pakistan-based Haqqani network has only underscored the enduring complexity of getting to peace in Afghanistan, a full decade after Operation Enduring Freedom was launched in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In these 10 years, the U.S.-led war has taken a horrific toll of civilian lives and welfare. In a report released in July, the United Nations estimated that the violence in the country claimed the lives of 1,462 non-combatants in the first six months of 2011. While the report attributed most of the deaths to anti-government elements, it held security forces responsible for 14 per cent of the deaths, with air strikes as the main killer. Even for a country that has known no peace for more than three decades, such high civilian casualties are difficult to absorb. Afghanistans double jeopardy is that the violence is certain to continue as long as western troops remain on its soil, but it has no mechanisms in place to ensure security and stability if and when those troops leave. The so-called end-game in anticipation of the American pull-out has only increased the bloodshed as the players Afghan, regional, and international compete to entrench themselves and outwit one another.

Myanmar's changing pulse

The visit to India by the President of Myanmar, Thein Sein, comes at a time of change in his country. His last visit was in 2008, as Prime Minister of the military junta that called itself the State Peace and Development Council. The SPDC has been replaced by a government that was elected in November 2010 but remains predominantly military in composition President Sein and most of his cabinet members were high-ranking military officers in the SPDC; and the election rules were engineered to ensure that the military-backed United Socialist and Democratic Party won. While the junta prevented the main democratic opposition, represented by the iconic Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League of Democracy, from contesting the elections, the new dispensation has sent up smoke signals for political reconciliation with her.

President Sein invited her for talks, and she has been allowed to tour the country unobstructed. But more remarkably, the government has bowed to popular will for the first time by suspending the Chinese-assisted Myitsone dam project on the Irrawaddy river. In an open letter to the government some months ago, Ms Suu Kyi highlighted the displacement the project would cause and its feared impact on the environment. At the risk of straining ties with China, President Sein told Parliament earlier this month that the government had a responsibility to solve the worries of the people so we will stop construction of the Myitsone dam. Also significant is the inclusion of 300 political prisoners in an amnesty to over 6,000 others. Over the last decade or so, India played down a longstanding friendship with Ms Suu Kyi as it assiduously courted the junta, to the extent of making an assessment exposed by WikiLeaks that her day has come and gone. Countering China's influence and securing the SPDC's cooperation to crack down on safe havens of insurgent groups from the North-East were the two main reasons cited for building ties with Myanmar's junta. President Sein's October 12-15 visit to New Delhi is likely to shine some light on how far the military is willing to travel in its rapprochement with Ms Suu Kyi. For New Delhi, the shift in Myanmar's political landscape is an opportunity to reinvigorate its engagement with Ms Suu Kyi and other pro-democracy forces. It can no longer remain diffident about doing this.

Weird Mercury
Our basic understanding of the fundamental aspects of Mercury stands challenged just six months after the Messenger spacecraft settled into orbit around the innermost planet. If the three fly-bys of Mariner 10 in the 1970s and Messenger indicated the strange nature of the planet, the first major release of results from NASA's spacecraft has confirmed its weirdness. The results published recently in Science are prompting researchers to reconsider some of the fundamental ideas about the nature and history of the planet. Mercury and earth are the only two terrestrial planets that have global magnetic fields generated internally. But the magnetic field of Mercury has some strange characteristics, that is, in comparison with the earth. The magnetic equator is displaced northward of the geographical equator by nearly 500 km. The net result of this displacement is that the surface field at the North Pole is larger than at the South Pole by a factor of nearly 3.5. But the surprising find is that unlike the earth, Mercury shows no evidence of electron radiation belts (Van Allen belts) surrounding it. Also, an acceleration phenomenon that produces energetic electrons fails to produce energetic protons. This phenomenon is unique to Mercury, and may be due to the weakness of the planetary field. The next strange feature confirmed is the presence of northern high-latitude smooth plains, produced by the globally extensive flood volcanism that occurred once the heavy bombardment ceased. Flowing out of the cracks some 3.8 billion years ago, the low-viscosity lava with high effusion rates apparently covers six per cent of the total surface area of the planet. Data suggest that Mercury's mantle must have undergone extensive partial melting at the fag end of heavy bombardment to produce large-scale flood volcanism. Internal heat production may be declining post-planet formation as there has been only isolated volcanic activity after the massive lava flow. This may also explain why naturally occurring radioactive isotopes of potassium, thorium, and uranium are found in abundance on the surface. In fact, contrary to models explaining

Mercury's formation, the evidence collected strongly suggests that the planet was not subjected to extreme heating. For instance, sulphur and potassium, which are moderately volatile, are found in abundance. Similarly, there is plenty of potassium relative to thorium and uranium. The overall composition makes the planet comparable to chondritic meteorites. These baffling observations invest the Messenger mission with great significance, and the remaining six months of its mission life will be keenly followed by scientists round the world.

IT policy and credibility gap

Statements of policy can sound grand but when it comes to promises of administrative reform, what India needs is a reality check. The draft National Policy on Information Technology, 2011 claims that providing ubiquitous, affordable, access to information and public services for enhancing efficiency, transparency, accountability and reliability is among its important goals. Another key objective is to incentivise the software industry to boost exports, to expand IT education, and generate ten million new jobs. It can be assumed that economic imperatives will lend fresh dynamism to the high-performing software industry, but the same cannot be said of public services. Take the key areas under the National e-Governance Plan. Income Tax, passport, visa, land records, property registration, pensions, road transport, police, municipalities, panchayats, and employment exchanges are all priority services, but these are not ready for electronic service provision even after years. Communications and IT Minister Kapil Sibal must address this serious credibility gap. He has acknowledged the problem of bribery to get even a refund in departments such as Income Tax, but only firm action can produce solutions. The situation is not very different in other government services. The IT Policy can bring about progress in service delivery if the Ministry of Information Technology starts with an audit of the status quo and sets deadlines for reform. It is revealing, for instance, that the Department of Posts is yet to provide computer hardware to all post offices in the country. Scores of post offices do not have computers in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, and Uttar Pradesh, and even Maharashtra. Besides installing machines, ensuring robust communication networks is vital. In keeping with global trends, the IT Policy lauds social media, which a vast number of people have taken to enthusiastically. Yet government has not exploited its potential to engage citizens. India also does not have national data networks in areas such as education and health that can aid research and informed policymaking. Here it is encouraging that one of the objectives is to design and implement a framework to place data in the public domain for use and value addition. This needs to be done on priority in all areas of development, including agriculture. The emphasis on open standards and open technologies is progressive. It is worth emphasising that the UPA government must enact the Electronic Service Delivery Bill 2011, if the goal of providing high quality public services, outlined in the IT Policy, is to be met anytime soon.

Three very courageous women

The Nobel Peace Prize for 2011 has been won by three women, each of whom has shown sustained moral and physical courage in situations of war and state violence. Ellen Johnson

Sirleaf, an economist with a Harvard master's in public administration, survived imprisonment and a rape attempt during the brutal regime of Samuel Doe. She went on to win the Liberian presidency in 2004, becoming Africa's first elected woman head of state. She immediately started rebuilding a shattered country. Declaring that empowered women were essential to a civilised and safe society, she got 40 per cent of girls into free compulsory elementary schooling, and tightened the laws on rape and women's property rights. The second winner is also a Liberian; Leymah Gbowee, a social worker-turned activist, started a women's prayer for peace on a football field in 2002. This became a daily event, even though soldiers involved in the savage civil war could have fired on the women while driving past. Ms Gbowee then led her followers to surround the hall used for peace talks until the delegates signed a deal. She also advised Liberian women to deny sex to their men until they stopped war, in which mass rape was widespread. The third winner, Tawakkul Karman of Yemen, a journalist-activist, has campaigned for women's rights in a conservative society. She became an iconic figure in her country's protests, which have resulted in the dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh announcing his departure. Ms Karman has often been jailed and has survived an assassination attempt. Earlier this year, her response to Mr. Saleh's comment that female protesters had been mingling with men was to lead 10,000 women in a march down a highway. Women laureates have been a rarity in the history of Nobel prizes. Only 15 women, including these three, have won the Peace Prize in 110 years. This year's prize is also the first to go to any African since the Kenyan environmentalist Wangari Maathai was honoured in 2004. The very nature of the Peace Nobel means that some controversy is usually involved. As Ms Johnson Sirleaf is standing for re-election, Liberian opposition leaders say the Committee is interfering in domestic politics. Ms Karman, for her part, belongs to an Islamist party, Islah, which has links with the Muslim Brotherhood. By choosing someone from Yemen and not, say, Bahrain, where repression is equally severe but the ruler is favoured by major western countries the Committee has shown that its decision might not be as free of political considerations as it claims it to be. None of this takes away from the fact that these three very courageous women eminently deserve the Prize.

Avoidable downgrade
The downgrade of State Bank of India's standalone rating of credit worthiness by Moody's Investor Services last week needs to be understood in its proper perspective. The agency, one of the big three Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings are the others cut the rating on SBI's financial strength to D-plus from C-minus, reflecting its concern over the Bank's capital adequacy as well as deteriorating asset quality. Indian stock markets, which have been on a roller coaster ride over an extended period, lurched downwards after the announcement, with bank stocks in general coming under intense pressure. SBI is by far the biggest commercial bank in the country, accounting for more than a fourth of total banking business. While it is, therefore, easy to exaggerate the significance of the downgrade, a few facts need to be borne in mind. The downgrading will indeed affect SBI's standing in global financial markets. But almost 95 per cent of SBI's business is within India. Granting that there will be a ripple effect as the higher costs of new foreign currency loans trickle down to the domestic sector SBI will be able to provide foreign currency support to its clients at competitive rates. Moreover, as the SBI

Chairman has said, the revised rating is still of investment grade, and is no worse than that of other public sector banks. Several banks on either side of the Atlantic have faced downgrades recently as they reel under the European debt crisis. Yet that is small comfort for SBI simply because the reasons here are very different. SBI, which is government-owned to an extent of almost 60 per cent, has been, for close to a year, contemplating a rights share issue of about Rs.23,000 crore to shore up its capital base. It is stalled by the government's inability to find money to put up its share of the rights issue. The government realises it has to do so for sustaining its majority ownership and also because SBI's tier-I capital has fallen below the regulatory norm of 8 per cent, to which the government is committed. SBI also faces the twin problems of higher interest rates and deteriorating asset quality. If the bank had gone through with the capital raising effort, these pressures would have been well under control; there would have been no question of a downgrade. Even as the government is planning to infuse emergency capital, it needs to be emphasised that SBI and a few other public sector banks would have absolutely no difficulty in mobilising resources from the capital market at very attractive rates. It is the imperative to preserve government majority ownership that stands in their way.

Dangerous culture of intolerance

It speaks to the deeply divisive times we live in that Team Anna activist and Supreme Court lawyer Prashant Bhushan was savagely assaulted in his own chamber and in the full glare of television cameras for the crime of saying something that his attackers disapproved of. In the past, intolerant groups who seem to have no problem breaking the law with impunity, have targeted writers, artists, journalists, scholars, and activists whose work they did not like. Mr. Bhushan has lately been in the public eye for going full-throttle against high-level corruption, both in his capacity as a lawyer and as part of Anna Hazare's spectacularly-mounted and hugely resonant Jan Lokpal Bill campaign. As a petitioner in the 2G scam case, he has taken on some of the most powerful names in politics and industry. Yet if Mr. Bhushan has rendered himself vulnerable today, it is for his daring work in the field of civil liberties. In recent years, he has braved criticism to defend those accused of terrorism, taken up the cause of Binayak Sen and spoken out against the violation of human rights in Kashmir. Indeed, Mr. Bhushan was set upon in his office by right-wing fanatics because he suggested at a conference on Kashmir that a referendum may be an option failing other measures such as withdrawal of the Army and the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act. That the Ram Sena activists had worked themselves into a frenzy ahead of the attack is evident from a YouTube clip containing the speech in question. In the digitally altered clip, Mr. Bhushan appears with his face blackened, and there is a warning to Anna for harbouring a traitor: Brashtachari ko phansi to desh drohi ko kya? (You are advocating death to the corrupt, what about traitors?) The brazen manner of the attack on Mr. Bhushan with the goons obviously enjoying being on camera exposes the extent to which lawlessness and intolerance have corroded the Indian political culture. The attack is also proof if any were needed that corruption and communalism cannot be fought separately. If anything, today's right-wing intolerance is a product of the failure of past anti-corruption campaigns to recognise the dangers of

communalism. The RSS was an integral part of the anti-corruption movements of 1977 and 1989, and the Anna campaign too suffers from the perception that its ranks have been permeated by RSS foot soldiers. Fortunately, Team Anna has dissociated itself from the dubious elements that once shared its anti-corruption plank. It must also help the group that it can count among its members men of such impeccable credentials as Mr. Bhushan. For once the UPA government must shed its customary apathy and proactively prosecute the culprits in the case, especially in the light of Thursday's follow-up' attack by Ram Sena thugs on supporters of Mr. Bhushan. For its part, Team Anna needs to be as watchful of right-wing ascendancy as it is of all-pervasive corruption.

Twin challenges for Tantawi

The worst violence Cairo has seen since Hosni Mubarak's brutal attempts to suppress the Egyptian protests in February has claimed at least 24 lives. Military trucks and armoured cars are alleged to have run over peaceful demonstrators, mainly Coptic Christians. Along with Egyptian Muslims, they had marched peacefully from the city's Shubra district to the state television offices in Maspero Square, where they began an outdoor sit-in to protest over the destruction of a church in the southern governorate of Aswan the previous week. The protesters also allege that thugs started targeting Christians before the army joined in; al-Jazeera has carried reports that 300 were injured in all. Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf, in a response that is typical of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi's governing Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, has blamed foreign interference. But the civilian cabinet has held an emergency meeting, and the Council has called for a speedy inquiry into the incident. The episode highlights continuing problems in Egypt's transition to democracy. The military rulers have been unable or unwilling to control sectarian prejudices in official institutions. Ordinary Egyptians of all faiths are troubled by the slow progress towards the drafting of a constitution. The Supreme Council may be trying to delay or even prevent reform; since Mr. Mubarak's departure from office, some 12,000 people have been tried in military courts, not the civilian judicial system. A further result of the institutional resistance to change is that the Copts, who at 10 per cent are Egypt's largest single minority, continue to be exposed to discrimination and, on occasion, violence. Those involved in the recent Cairo demonstrations have called for the removal of the Aswan provincial governor, accusing him of failing to protect the church that was attacked. The current situation must be a bitter disappointment to all reform-minded Egyptians, not least those Copts and Muslims who, during February's uprising, prayed together in Cairo's Tahrir Square and chanted We are one! in a clear and inspiring message to the Hosni Mubarak dictatorship and to sectarian forces in Egypt. Some religious leaders, such as the country's Grand Imam Ahmed el-Tayeb, have condemned the attack on the Aswan church, but the Tantawi regime now faces a severe test of its sincerity and political will. If it fails to rise to the challenge of genuine democratic reform, it will risk a fresh national uprising.

Japan's aid diplomacy & India

The decision by Japan to exempt India from the cuts it has implemented in its overseas aid programmes following the tsunami and the nuclear disaster at Fukushima is an indication that Tokyo, despite its internal political turmoil, is giving its ties with New Delhi high priority. Financial aid may sound like a paradoxical way to go about this. After all, India ranked among the world's top emerging economies, with a high growth rate is not desperate for the money. Indeed, India now gives considerable financial assistance to neighbouring countries and to Africa. It is a contributor to the poverty alleviation fund set up by the India-Brazil-South Africa grouping and managed by the United Nations, among other projects. But it also continues to receive funding from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, the European Union, the Scandinavian countries and a few others, aside from what these countries channelise through non-governmental organisations. While foreign funding constitutes a minuscule fraction of India's GDP, it is not irrelevant. Fewer strings are attached to it today than three decades ago, when India was in dire need of it. India is also better equipped than it was, in knowledge and capacity, to utilise the money. Foreign funding can be deployed in the battle to make health, water, and sanitation available to millions of Indians who live without these facilities; it can be used for global initiatives, of which India is a part the fight against climate change, for instance. It is also used in infrastructure projects. Financial aid from Japan funds the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, a $100-billion infrastructure development that extends over six States. Japan's aid diplomacy with India should be seen in the context of ties that have improved steadily in the last decade but are yet to break the surface. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement the two countries signed last year promises to further trade relations that have stagnated far below their potential. In parallel, both sides have also sought to develop a strategic partnership. The exemption from aid cuts has come ahead of the fifth round of the India-Japan Strategic Dialogue scheduled for the end of October, in which the Indian side will be led by External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna, and a visit to Japan by Defence Minister A.K. Antony in the first week of November. Both events are likely to focus on issues of maritime security in the East Asian region, including in the South China Sea. But while it is in India's interests to find a firmer footing with Japan, New Delhi should guard against attempts to project this relationship as a counterpoint to China.

Supporting the export effort

The government's new incentive package for exporters is meant to help some of them cope with the looming uncertainties in the global markets. It will cost the exchequer Rs.900 crore. Taken along with the interest subsidy of 2 per cent announced by the Reserve Bank of India a couple of days earlier for labour-intensive industries such as handicrafts, handlooms, and carpets and for small and medium exporters, the cost will add up to at least Rs.1,700 crore. Obviously, there would be questions as to whether the amount is really enough to restore the competitive edge and whether it is well targeted. It is said that the new measures are part of the Foreign Trade Policy (2009-14) and will be incorporated in its next annual supplement. That should elevate what may seem to be ad hoc measures to the status of policy, giving them a semblance of durability. The intention clearly is to dovetail the ingredients of this package with the broader thrust of the foreign trade policy, which seeks to reward exporters who move into newer markets

in Latin America, Africa, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), with an additional one percentage point duty credit. Around 50 products in the engineering, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals sectors would get the special bonus, subject to certain conditions. For many years now, the government's trade policy has aggressively promoted the diversification of India's exports to non-traditional markets and products. That strategy appears to have paid off, if recent export performance is anything to go by. Between April and August this year, exports grew by 54.2 per cent over the same period a year ago to touch $134.5 billion. Such a scorching pace will be hard to sustain, however. India's traditional export markets the United States and Europe which account for about 35 per cent of the total, are facing uncertain times and virtually flat economic growth. Since Indian exporters would be hard pressed to sustain their volumes in these markets, let alone increase them, their initiatives to get into the non-traditional markets make good sense. The export performance has been commendable also because it has come in the face of large uncertainties caused by the fluctuating rupee and rising interest rates. Obviously, India's trade figures are extremely relevant in the larger context of balance of payments. According to RBI data, merchandise trade deficit has gone up to $35.54 billion from $31.38 billion during the first quarter of this fiscal year. That is another reason why export promotion ought to remain a top priority.

Captive to domestic politics

With its international economic policy very much captive to factious domestic politics, the United States is hardly in a position to exercise the global economic leadership role that would have been expected of it in these abnormal times. Since the financial crisis of 2008, it has been the robust growth in countries such as India and China that offset the anaemic performance in the advanced economies. Indeed, the advanced economies are in worse shape today than they were during the initial phase of the recovery. With euro zone policymaking also in disarray, emerging economies have even greater reasons to worry. They realise that solutions to most of the global economic problems will not come from the West because of the divisive politics in the U.S. and the euro zone countries. In the U.S. the bickering in Congress over debt and deficit has rendered much of its international economic policymaking counterproductive. Gains have been few and far between, and even those, such as the much-delayed Congressional approval to bilateral trade deals with South Korea, Panama and Colombia, are not considered significant. These deals were negotiated four or five years ago by the previous administration, and, in any case, are unlikely to contribute significantly now to growth and employment. Most of the tariffs with South Korea are already low. However, these pacts have been widely blamed by the trade unions and the public for sending jobs abroad. The debate over the trade deals has become a proxy for those over employment and globalisation. Free trade has become a casualty as the world's number one economy has turned inwards embracing protectionism in many notable instances. The Doha development round of trade talks is as good as dead. The absence of political will in the U.S. to pursue free trade agreements overruling significant domestic opposition is palpable. Even more ominous is the purport of a bill recently passed by the Senate that aims to punish China for holding down its currency and

hence boosting its export competitiveness. Any fundamentally misaligned currency would be deemed to be a subsidy subject to countervailing duties. The move has been severely criticised by China and other countries which see in the new legislation shades of the protectionist policies of the 1930s that made the Great Depression even worse. The World Trade Organisation is sure to frown upon the imposition of such duties. There is a fear that such a move might lead to full-blown trade and currency wars between the world's top two economies, with all other countries being inevitably drawn into them.

Good monsoon but bad forecast

The rains have been good during this year's south-west monsoon. The season ended with the country, as a whole, receiving one per cent more rain than the long-period average. The rains have been geographically well distributed too, with the north-west, the central region, and the southern part of the country getting more than average rainfall. Only the north-east recorded a deficit. Consequently, the country is looking forward to a bumper harvest in the kharif season. In this optimistic scenario, it is easy to forget that the India Meteorological Department's forecasts had gone awry. In mid-April, the IMD put the countrywide seasonal rainfall at 98 per cent of the long-period average, with an error bar of five percentage points. In June, the agency revised it as 95 per cent with an error bar of four percentage points. While the country received excess rain in June, the rains in July were considerably below par. By the end of July, the nationwide deficit for the season stood at about four per cent. On August 1, the IMD declared that countrywide rainfall during August-September was likely to be 90 per cent of the long-period average, with an error bar of eight percentage points. This forecast raised the possibility of the monsoon fizzling out. But, as things turned out, the rains were well above average during both August and September. In its end-of-season report, the IMD agreed that its operational long-range forecasts had not been very accurate. It explained that the sudden re-emergence of a La Nina the cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is usually beneficial for the monsoon led to increased rainfall in the second half of the season. What is clear is that the department needs to re-evaluate the parameters that go into the statistical model used for its seasonal predictions. These parameters have remained unchanged for the past five years. It is possible that the correlation of some of them with the monsoon's outcome has dropped sharply and must therefore be replaced with new ones. There is also a good case for focussing on probabilistic forecasts. The IMD's April forecast indicated a 93 per cent probability that the monsoon would be normal', with the nationwide rainfall between 90 per cent and 110 per cent of the long-period average; in June, that probability had dropped only to 80 per cent. Rainfall data for over a century show that seven years out of ten fall into this category. Thus, the probabilistic forecasts showed that this year the odds favoured a normal monsoon. And that, mercifully, is just how things have turned out.

A Megha bonanza
The Indo-French atmospheric research satellite, Megha-Tropiques, is now safely ensconced in orbit, a fact that will gladden the hearts of many scientists around the world. This is just the second satellite that will gaze down on the formation of clouds and powerful storms in the

tropical regions of the world. The ageing U.S.-Japanese Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in 1997 and still operational, has provided a bonanza of information. There are high expectations from Megha-Tropiques, which will concentrate even more on the tropics and provide greater coverage of the region. This satellite will measure the flow of energy and the build-up of water vapour at different levels in the atmosphere, both critical factors in the evolution of large cloud systems. By deciphering the complex linkages between land, ocean, and atmosphere, it will be possible to greatly improve weather and climate models, making for better monsoon prediction. It should also provide vital clues for determining whether a warming climate could lead to more rain or less. And the benefits will not be restricted to India. That the 21 science teams formed for the mission have drawn scientists from 11 countries is a testament to its global importance. After a three-month period during which the instruments on the satellite will be calibrated and another six months when data will go only to the international science teams, data from the satellite will be freely accessible to all. A number of groups from various countries, including India, have plans to feed the data in real-time into their simulation models for weather prediction. In the meantime, another Indo-French satellite, SARAL, which will study the oceans, is being prepared for launch next year. Along with the Megha-Tropiques, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) also carried three tiny satellites as co-passengers, two of them designed and developed by the faculty and students of Indian academic institutions. The three-kilogramme Jugnu nanosatellite came from IIT Kanpur and the 11-kilogramme SRMSat from the SRM University near Chennai. The PSLV had launched the 40-kilogramme ANUSAT from Anna University in 2009, and last year it put up the STUDSAT, weighing less than one kilogramme, built by a consortium of seven engineering colleges in Bangalore and Hyderabad. This sort of effort must be encouraged. For one thing, novel technologies can be tested quite cheaply. More importantly, putting together any satellite, however small, that will survive the rigours of launch and then work in the hostile environment of space is a tremendous challenge. It is unquestionably an excellent way to train the technology leaders of tomorrow that India needs.

Clean up the air

City-dwelling Indians are at higher risk for respiratory illnesses, heart disease, and lung cancer because the concentration of fine particulate matter in the air is way above the guidelines of the World Health Organisation. The recently released WHO data related to Particulate Matter measuring 10 micrometres or less (PM10) for 33 Indian cities are staggeringly high. These particles enter the bloodstream through the lungs, with grave consequences for health; urban outdoor air pollution is thought to cause 1.3 million deaths a year worldwide. The cities with the worst air quality are Ludhiana, Kanpur, Delhi, Lucknow, Indore, and Agra, in that order. Significantly, the WHO pollution atlas has a lot in common with the map prepared by the Central Pollution Control Board for cities that do not meet ambient air quality standards. This is an issue of serious concern because PM10 levels in ambient air in 27 Indian cities range from 80 micrograms per cubic metre in Ahmedabad to 251 in Ludhiana, against the WHO guideline norm of 20. Sadly, the average citizen can do little to mitigate the pollution. Achieving good air quality requires intervention at the policy level in key areas vehicular emissions, polluting small-scale manufacturing, and burning of biomass and coal.

The abysmal air quality in Indian cities calls for determined, speedy action. Thus far the response to the problem has been directed towards improving the quality of automotive fuels, mandating higher emission standards for automobiles, using CNG for commercial vehicles in Delhi and LPG in some other places, organising surprise checks on polluting industries, and so on. That these have not made a significant difference to air quality is clear proof of their inadequacy. Delhi experienced a perceptible improvement in air quality thanks to CNG, but it has begun to slide in the last few years. The WHO figures indicate that Amritsar and Kochi have lower PM10 levels than other cities, but even these are almost double the guideline figure. The answer lies in providing alternatives to fossil-fuel driven vehicles, taxing inefficient use of cars, and encouraging non-motorised transport such as cycling. No time should be lost in expanding and liberally subsidising public transport. Unfortunately, India is motorising at a rate much faster than the United States or countries in Europe did in the 20th century. The result is massive urban vehicular congestion. The imperatives of economic growth do demand better and faster mobility but this has to be achieved in smart ways that do not subject entire populations to terrible health risks.

Kashmir: why AFSPA must go

More than 23 years after the bombing that signalled the beginning of the murderous insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir, India's strategic establishment is demonstrating a curious unwillingness to grasp the fact that the war to restore peace has been won. Ever since 2009, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has been advocating the withdrawal of the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act from parts of the State, as a first step towards an incremental rollback of the Army's presence in civilian-inhabited areas a source of everyday friction with civilians. Even though Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram has backed the idea, and a report by three government interlocutors has endorsed it, New Delhi has proved unwilling to act, in part because of bitter resistance by the Indian Army. Based on an analysis of central government data, this newspaper reported on Friday that J&K was more peaceful than many perfectly peaceful' States among them, economically vibrant Haryana. In population-adjusted terms, violent deaths in J&K those of terrorists and security force personnel, as well as murders of civilians, whether terrorism-related or otherwise were at the same level as in Bihar, and not significantly higher than in Delhi. No one in New Delhi, though, wishes to be charged with overruling an assessment by the armed forces an assessment which, regrettably, is driven more by fear than hardheaded strategic sense. Three spurious arguments are being used to justify the status quo. First, the Army contends that the situation across the Line of Control needs a robust military presence. But Mr. Abdullah isn't proposing removing a single soldier. His proposals would only lift AFSPA from two areas where the Army in any case has no security responsibilities. If things went well, troops would be freed up for deployment along the LoC, leaving the State and central police forces to deal with the degraded insurgency. Secondly, it is claimed that without AFSPA, the Army will not be able to stage counter-terrorism operations in an emergency. Proponents of this argument forget that AFSPA did not have to be imposed to allow the Army to assist in the defence of Parliament House when it came under terrorist attack in 2001 and that the Army staged many successful counter-terrorism operations in Jammu province before AFSPA was imposed there in 2001.

Finally, some argue that the AFSPA-free enclaves will be magnets for terrorists. This, too, makes little sense, since the Army is not present in the enclaves anyway and it is improbable that terrorists have not established themselves there for fear of a mere law. Chief Minister Abdullah's proposals do entail risks. Yet not taking those risks involves heavy costs key among them, creating a reservoir of frustration and anger that will undermine the hard-won peace that so many Indian soldiers gave their lives for.

A new deal for Europe

It is not the first time that a high-level summit of Europe's leaders has claimed a breakthrough in providing solutions to the Continent's festering debt crisis. The emergency deal struck on Thursday at Brussels after a marathon session is comprehensive and can mitigate the rigour of the debt crisis which has threatened the financial stability of not just Europe but virtually the entire global economy. The deal has three elements. One, with a renewed focus on Greece, political leaders persuaded reluctant private banks holding Greek debt to accept a write-off of 50 per cent of their returns. This is much more than the 40 per cent hair-cut that banks were willing to offer. The move, which holds the key to the success of the overall strategy, is expected to cut Greece's debt burden to 120 per cent of its GDP in 2020. Without it, the debt would have risen to 180 per cent. Secondly, the corpus of the main euro bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is being increased substantially from 440 billion to 1 trillion. This is meant to prevent market panic from spreading to other countries, notably Italy. The fund will be leveraged four to five times to enhance its fire power. Thirdly, European banks are asked to raise about 106 billion in new capital by June 2012. Such a massive recapitalisation, it is hoped, will shield not only the banks against losses resulting from government defaults, but will also protect the larger economies such as Spain and Italy from slipping into default. The financial markets around the world have responded favourably to the news of the package. The euro has risen. While the leaders can justifiably claim to have engineered the breakthrough, it is clear that the success of the package is contingent on whether, and to what extent, Greece and the eurozone are able to convince the markets that the worst will be over soon. However, even the reduced debt burden Greece will carry till 2020 is hard to service by an economy that will be subjected to harsh austerity measures. Investors need to be convinced that the money promised for the bailout fund will in fact be available, preferably through simpler structures than what has been proposed. Finally, infusion of public money into big European banks might have boosted bank stocks, but the larger, fundamental question of whether taxpayers should bailout banks that have been reckless in their operations remains unanswered.

Conquering malaria
When the World Health Organisation published its revised guidelines for malaria treatment in March 2010, just four years after it came out with its maiden version, an editorial in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) was quick to highlight its significance. It was a testament of how quickly malaria control had developed and a marked reduction in the global burden of malaria

had been achieved. A WHO report now confirms this assessment. There has been a 20 per cent drop in the number of malarial deaths during the last decade from about one million deaths in 2000 to about 800,000 in 2009. The number of infections fell from 233 million to 225 million. About a third of the 108 countries where the disease is endemic may be able to eradicate it in a decade if all targets continue to be met. In India, the annual number of confirmed cases has remained stable at 1.5 million since 2007. But according to a 2008 WHO report, the number of cases reported by countries was only 37 per cent of the estimated global incidence. And the gap between reported numbers and true incidence was greatest in [the] South-East Asia region, where 10 of the 11 countries were malaria endemic. This gap certainly exists in India. The data collection is poor and is mainly confined to the nine States that are highly endemic Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. The battle against mosquitoes can be won when an efficacious vaccine becomes available. Interim results of a Phase-III trial undertaken in seven African countries on more than 15,000 children of two age groups 6 to 12 weeks and 5 to 17 months show some promise. Fiftyfive per cent protection was seen in children belonging to the older age group. However, efficacy declined with time, and adverse events like meningitis and seizures were observed in the vaccinated children. Although complete results will be available only by 2014, WHO has taken the unusual step of recommending the vaccine for use in some African countries by 2015 if the final results turn out to be favourable, as The New England Journal of Medicine notes in an editorial. In the absence of a vaccine, insecticide-treated mosquito nets and indoor spraying will continue to be the two potent preventive weapons. Though the preventive tools were able to cut malaria cases and deaths by half in 11 African countries, the malaria control programme could be declared successful only when the disease ceases to be a mass killer in Africa and South-East Asia.

Recycle the bulb

India consumes a few hundred million energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps every year and the volumes are growing. This is welcome news not just for the lighting industry, which places the number of pieces manufactured in 2010 at around 304 million, but also for climate change mitigation efforts. Yet this also presents a waste management challenge. The problem with fluorescent lamps is that they contain small amounts of mercury. Unfortunately, India has not evolved a good system to recover this hazardous heavy metal from end-of-life lamps. Moreover, the trend is towards dosing CFLs made in India with levels of mercury that exceed the international norm, apparently to improve their performance. A recent study by Toxics Link, a non-governmental organisation, indicates that mercury levels in domestic CFLs may even be four to six times the norm in developed countries. The issue was acknowledged by the Central Pollution Control Board three years ago. Since disused CFL and mercury-laden lamps, and fluorescent tubes, are generally dumped in municipal waste or sold to unorganised recyclers, there is harmful release of mercury into the soil, water, and air. This is happening in spite of the forward-looking Guidelines for Environmentally Sound Mercury Management in the Fluorescent Lamp Sector the Board issued in 2008.

Mercury can cause serious, well-recognised health effects when there is chronic exposure. Permanent damage to skin, eyes, and respiratory tract and other symptoms are caused upon skin contact, inhalation of vapour, or ingestion. The onus is on the State Pollution Control Boards, which are responsible for the handling and management of hazardous waste, to ensure that environmental exposure to this toxic chemical is eliminated. The imperative is to reduce the amount of mercury that goes into CFLs through standards and regulatory controls and enforce the principle of extended producer responsibility for the collection and disposal of waste. This cannot be achieved without the active involvement of municipal authorities, manufacturers, and the trade. The way forward would be to provide a financial incentive to consumers for turning in old mercury lamps of all types, particularly conventional fluorescent tube lights and CFLs, and to ensure their scientific disposal through a network of authorised recyclers. Such a system can succeed because there is greater awareness of negative externalities among consumers today. For instance, shoppers are willing to pay extra for plastic bags as required by the new Environment Ministry rules; many use their own bags. In the case of used light bulbs, consumers stand to gain if the rewards-based system is introduced. Recycling mercury lamps should be an environmental priority.

End of the tightening cycle

Given that inflation continues to be the main worry for policymakers, it is not surprising that the Reserve Bank of India, in its second quarter review of monetary policy, has extended its policy of monetary tightening, raising the repo rate by another 0.25 percentage point to 8.50 per cent. Although manufacturing and core inflation have moderated sequentially, year-on-year inflation continues to rule well above the RBI's medium-term targets. Arguing that any premature withdrawal from what has been a consistent policy stance since February 2010 will entail the risk of leaving inflation expectations unhinged, the RBI has, for now, ignored the growing clamour for a pause in hiking interest rates. It has, however, conceded that some important growth indicators are slowing down at a rate faster rate than anticipated, partly due to the delayed impact of previous interest rate hikes. Slower growth in the United States and the spiralling sovereign debt problems in Europe pose significant challenges for the management of external economy. Petroleum prices remain sticky and the sharp depreciation in the rupee can offset the gains from the fall in other commodity prices. However, the good news is that, in RBI's assessment, inflation is likely to moderate from December onwards. In its clearest message yet of a softer monetary policy ahead, the RBI says that the possibility of a rate hike in the December policy review is relatively low. While retaining its inflation target for March 31, 2012 at 7 per cent, the RBI says that monetary policy will have more room for addressing short-term growth concerns. The RBI's growth estimates have generally been more conservative than those of the government. In May, the annual policy statement had projected an 8 per cent growth for 201112, at least 0.50 percentage point higher than what most official estimates indicated. In the light of growth trends during the first half of the year, the RBI has revised it to 7.6 per cent. Among the development and regulatory policies announced along with the review, the deregulation of savings bank interest rate stands out. With this, administered interest rates will be confined to a very narrow spectrum of small savings schemes. Ironically it was only recently the government

decided to borrow Rs.50,000 crore more than was budgeted to offset a huge fall in small savings collections, which were drifting towards bank deposits. In a deregulated environment there will be stiffer competition and that should be good for savings bank account-holders. But the biggest impact will be on the banks themselves. The way the leading ones manage their balance sheets will be keenly watched.

A well deserved triumph

President Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner of Argentina has won re-election in a landslide which is historic for several reasons. With voting compulsory and 97 per cent of results declared, the winner's vote share of 54 per cent obviates the need for a runoff. The victory margin of 36 percentage points over the second-placed Hermes Binner of the Broad Progressive Front is the second largest in the country's history. It is exceeded only by the legendary Juan Pern's win in 1973, which included additional support under the complex two-round system for presidential elections. This time, Ms Kirchner won over 90 per cent of the vote in some provinces. Secondly, she is the first woman head of state in Latin America to win a second successive term in office. Thirdly, the President's Victory Front coalition has won eight out of nine provincial governorships, recapturing the wine-growing Mendoza province in the process. In effect, the electorate has resoundingly endorsed the political and economic strategies followed by Ms Kirchner and her predecessor, her late husband Nstor Kirchner. Furthermore, the election results send messages far beyond Argentina's borders. They are consistent with the strong left and centre-left commitments Latin American voters have shown for a dozen years now, in Venezuela, Bolivia, Brazil, and Chile as well as Argentina. They also confirm the benefits of well-strategised government intervention in the economy. In the last decade, Argentine GDP has grown by 94 per cent and poverty among the 41 million population has declined by two thirds. Moreover, inequalities have been reduced, in contrast to countries where high aggregate growth has been accompanied by huge increases in inequality. It is true that Buenos Aires will need a backup plan for what is expected to be a slowdown in the country's global trade. Inflation at a decadal peak of 20 per cent remains a concern. But the successive Kirchner governments' strategies expose the hollowness of two current orthodoxies. The first is that recessions must be followed only by slow recoveries; the Argentine economy was back on its feet within three years of a financial meltdown in the late 1990s. The second shibboleth is that debt requires economic shrinkage. Argentina's revival started after it defaulted on a $95 billion debt and resolutely ignored the prescriptions of international financial institutions in order to revive a broadly interventionist political economy. That strategy could be a model for many other countries, and Ms Kirchner's renewed four-year mandate is therefore all the more welcome.

An opening with Nepal

The most significant outcome of Nepali Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai's visit to India is the growing trust between the two countries, and between the Indian establishment and his own party, the Unified Communist Part of Nepal (Maoist). The stagnation that marked the bilateral relationship is now broken. New Delhi's policy of trying to keep the Maoists the legitimately

elected biggest party in parliament out of the power structure over the past two years was counter-productive. It only prolonged the stalemate over constitutional issues, deepened the instability, and generated resentment against India. But there has been a policy course-correction in the last few months. India did well not to try and block the election of Mr. Bhattarai as Prime Minister by using its leverage with the Madhesi parties. The immediate invitation extended to the new leader, the low-key efforts by the new Indian Ambassador in Kathmandu encouraging all sides to be flexible, the new support for the integration of a certain number of Maoist combatants into the Nepal Army, and the atmospherics of the prime ministerial visit show a renewed Indian commitment to playing a constructive role. With a section of the Indian establishment remaining uncomfortable with the emerging rapprochement, Nepal's opposition parties seem to have lobbied with senior members of the Indian cabinet to slow down the engagement with Maoists. Fortunately, this didn't work. Nepal appears to be on the verge of achieving a breakthrough in its peace and constitutional process. Its political parties are close to an agreement on the issue of the integration of Maoist fighters, which is at the core of the peace process. There is also a power-sharing proposal on the table, with the Maoists saying the Nepali Congress president, Sushil Koirala, can be the next Prime Minister who will lead the country into elections after promulgation of the new constitution. India must play a supportive role, as it did in 2005 when the 12-point agreement was forged. It should continue supporting the present government in its quest to wrap up the political transition, use its leverage with the Nepali Congress to get it to cooperate on the peace process, and nudge the Maoists to implement past commitments. Prime Minister Bhattarai and the Maoists took a political risk in signing the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement his rivals back home have dubbed it an anti-national' deal because they want to tell India that they can deliver on contentious issues, including the security of Indian investment. It is vital that India recognises these changing political realities in Nepal, and plays the role of a constructive facilitator once again.

Eliminating encephalitis
The scourge of encephalitis has once again struck parts of Uttar Pradesh and killed or crippled a large number of children. This dance of death has become an annual feature. The public health community views it as a crisis that can be controlled, if the political will to engage in reforms exists. For one thing, the pattern of the epidemic, with Gorakhpur as its nucleus, has been studied well, after a major outbreak more than three decades ago. It is clearly linked to the monsoon rain, which inundates the large number of rice fields in this area, leading to a rapid rise in the density of Culex mosquitoes. The period between July and November then becomes transmission season for encephalitis through mosquito bites. The epidemic is amplified by the presence of large numbers of pigs, which act as hosts. What all this underscores is the need for a State-wide massive prevention campaign that should consist of three parts: distributing insecticide-treated bed nets, free or subsidised, to protect against mosquito bites; creating awareness on the need to keep pigs away from habitations; and persuading people to avoid outdoor movement when the mosquito is most active. Gorakhpur, where more than one child is assigned to the same hospital bed during an epidemic, also needs rapid expansion of its infrastructure.

Prevention is likely to be the more effective approach to curb the spread of encephalitis in India. The Indian Council of Medical Research is yet to confirm the different virus strains causing the annual epidemics. Last year, the ICMR said Japanese Encephalitis represents only about 15 per cent of the fatal cases, and it would take more research to isolate the other viruses. Union Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad has reiterated this view. If this is correct, vaccination against Japanese Encephalitis can only be of limited value, even if it is scaled up to cover the entire population. Public health policy should therefore focus on removing the factors that aid transmission. This can only be achieved through massive investments in hygienic housing, sanitation, supply of bed nets, vector control, and behaviour modification. Relocating pigs is a sensitive issue in the encephalitis-hit districts, and calls for measures that inspire confidence in the community. Andhra Pradesh has carried out such a programme successfully and may offer important lessons. Moreover, incentives for hygienic practices are bound to persuade those rearing the animals to do the right thing. What is worrying is that the infection is spreading to more places in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The epidemic needs action on a war footing.

An extended honeymoon
Honeymoons, by definition, do not last long. But in Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam appears to have found a way to prolong the political honeymoon with the voters. After scoring a landslide win in the Legislative Assembly election held in April, the AIADMK swept the local body polls last week, capturing all the 10 corporations, and a majority of the municipalities, town panchayats, district panchayat wards, and panchayat union wards. And in the by-election to the Tiruchi (West) Assembly constituency, the party more than doubled its April victory margin. All this was achieved without the support of its major allies, notably the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam led by actor Vijayakant and the two Left parties. These three parties had formed a separate front for the local body polls, after differences surfaced with the senior partner over seat-sharing, but finished well behind the AIADMK and the principal opposition, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Like the AIADMK, the DMK contested without entering into seat adjustments with its Assembly election partners but, unlike the ruling party, it failed to make any gains. To nobody's surprise, the Congress, contesting alone, failed to win even a single corporation or municipality. The Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, former allies of the DMK, fared worse. The Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which boycotted the Assembly election after seat-sharing talks with the AIADMK broke down, won the chairmanship of one municipality and seven town panchayats, but was not in the reckoning in most other places. For the AIADMK, the results were an endorsement of the schemes and policies of the Jayalalithaa government in the last six months. Besides implementing the free rice' scheme, the government began fulfilling the election promises in quick time. Indeed, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa created a new Ministry for Special Programme Implementation to push through priority schemes such as free laptops for school and college students and mixers and grinders for the cardholders in the Public Distribution System. The welfare schemes aside, the AIADMK government appears to have got good ratings for its performance on the law and order front, and especially for its measures to reverse land grabbing. Unlike in 2001 and 2006, the local body elections this time were free of large-scale violence and irregularities. Now, with this reinforced

mandate, the Chief Minister must ensure that the local bodies have sufficient funds and administrative autonomy so that they are enabled to function effectively as grass-roots democratic institutions.

Names, novels and the Booker

The Man Booker Prize was instituted in 1969 to reward the best' novel of the year written by a citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland. This annual prize is so influential now that it transforms the fortunes of authors and their publishers. But once in a while it seems to get deflected from its stated purpose, giving rise to the suspicion that it is awarded not so much for the book in contention as for the whole body of work of the writer. Nobody doubted that Margaret Atwood, shortlisted thrice before she won in 2000, was the most deserving winner. But, as it was hotly debated then, did she really win for The Blind Assassin or was it that it was no longer possible to ignore an author of her stature? When Ian McEwan, rated by The Times as one of the 50 greatest British writers since 1945, won for Amsterdam in 1998, the question was asked: was it the literary merit of the novel or his literary oeuvre that did it? This year's prize engenders a similar feeling of discomfort. Julian Barnes's The Sense of an Ending is an endearing and enjoyable book. But this resonant semi-autobiographical novella about growing up in the face of the unreliability of memory, the capacity for self-deception, and the encumbrance of guilt is a much slighter work than his wickedly funny and architecturally complex A History of the World in 10-1/2 Chapters, the erudite and meditative Flaubert's Parrot, and the inventive quasihistorical Arthur and George. With an output of 11 novels and a half-a-dozen works of non-fiction (not to mention pseudonymously written crime novels), Barnes's place in Britain's literary A-list is well established. Shortlisted for the award, the 65-year-old novelist was justified in feeling mild paranoia on whether he would ever win a Booker, which he once described as a posh bingo. In this year's shortlist, which the chairperson of the judges declared controversially was chosen for readability (as opposed to literary inventiveness or merit, inferred some critics), Barnes was the only weighty name, the odds-on favourite of bookmakers. Of course, the Booker usually places novels well above names, which is what lends this prize its special and seemingly impudent appeal. The award has brought prestige and attention to new novelists (Salman Rushdie's Midnight's Children was his second, Arundhati Roy's The God of Small Things was her debut). It has also gone to a number of other richly deserving works such as Kazuo Ishiguro's The Remains of the Day, Michael Ondaatje's The English Patient, and, more recently, Hilary Mantel's Wolf Hall. The Prize has had its share of controversies, but is only the richer for it.

The killing of Qadhafi

The violent death of Col. Muammar Qadhafi is the worst possible beginning for a new Libya where 42 years of dictatorial and whimsical rule by a strongman are supposed to make way for democratic structures. The exact circumstances in which Col. Qadhafi was killed are unclear. It is known that NATO bombed a convoy in which he was trying to flee a blockade of his hometown Sirte by forces allied to the National Transitional Council government. He might have

been wounded in the bombing; subsequent video footage shows him asking for mercy from his captors. The NTC, which took power after over-running the Qadhafi regime two months ago with NATO's assistance, has said he was shot in crossfire between its forces and his loyalists. But reports from the ground suggest he was executed in cold blood. Libya has failed its first democratic test, with vengeance and bloodlust triumphing over due process, the rule of law, and justice. NATO is deeply complicit in this. The role of western powers, especially the United Kingdom, France, and the United States, through this sorry saga of violent regime change reiterates the question that has been asked ever since NATO began bombing Libya, ostensibly as a humanitarian intervention authorised by the United Nations Security Council: does the West want democracy in Libya or just any friendly regime that will give it access to the country's oil? It is disappointing that India, which opposed external intervention in Libya, has expressed no concern at Qadhafi's violent end. Muammar Qadhafi will certainly not be mourned as a great leader of his people. His rule did bring about positive changes for his country, notably in health, education, and infrastructure development. In contrast to other Arab states, it also gave Libyans a consciousness about their oil wealth as a national resource. But he was a ruthless dictator, and his regime was infamous for crushing dissent by imprisoning, torturing, and killing a large number of political opponents. Qadhafi's Libya was also associated with deadly terrorist acts in Europe, including the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am plane over Lockerbie in Scotland, for which the world imposed sanctions on the country. It was only after 9/11 that both the West and Qadhafi saw opportunities in compromise: after condemning Osama bin Laden, he gave up Libya's nuclear programme and surrendered two suspects in the Lockerbie bombing, in return for a lifting of international sanctions. With Qadhafi gone, the NTC will no doubt move to cement its hold on power. But if it genuinely wants to set Libya on the right path, it would do well to begin by conducting an honest and impartial investigation into Qadhafi's killing.

Paid news claims its price

The Election Commission of India's disqualification of Umlesh Yadav, sitting MLA from Bisauli in Uttar Pradesh, is a landmark order that notches some firsts for India's electoral democracy. Ms Yadav was disqualified on Thursday under Section 10-A of the Representation of the People Act 1951 for a period of three years for failing to provide a true and correct account of her election expenses. She had failed to include in her official poll accounts the amount she spent on advertisements, dressed up as news, in two Hindi dailies, Dainik Jagran and Amar Ujala, during her 2007 election campaign. The case arose out of an adjudication by the Press Council of India on the complaint of a losing candidate against the two dailies for publishing paid news. After holding the newspapers guilty of ethical violations and issuing a caution to them, the Council sent its adjudication to the ECI for such action as deemed fit by them. No sitting MP or MLA before Ms Yadav, wife of a liqour baron and strongman, has ever been disqualified by the ECI on grounds of excessive expenditure and certainly none on account of paid news. This is also the first verdict in the paid news saga a scandal that has hurt the credibility of the Indian news media and demoralised journalists and it comes just after the Delhi High Court's dismissal of former Maharashtra Chief Minister Ashok Chavan's petition challenging the ECI's jurisdiction in

probing the truth or falsity of his 2009 poll expenses. The High Court affirmed the ECI's powers to do so. The potential ramifications of Ms Yadav's disqualification are enormous. In the pipeline are the paid news cases of Mr. Chavan and former Jharkhand Chief Minister Madhu Koda. There will be others coming up too, as the public realises that it now has recourse against the abuse of money power, where earlier it felt helpless. The verdict should, hopefully, act as a deterrent to obscene spending in elections. In its 23-page order (http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/recent/Disqualification_case_Umkesh_Yadav.pdf), the ECI makes the wider and vital observation that by suppressing expenditure on paid news' and filing an incorrect or false account, the candidate involved is guilty of not merely circumventing the law relating to election expenses but also of resorting to false propaganda by projecting a wrong picture and defrauding the electorate. The ECI deserves the highest praise for functioning without fear or favour as the upstanding institution of Indian democracy that it is. The question does pop up, though: what about the newspapers and television channels that enable defrauding the electorate?

A triangle of great promise

Of all the foreign policy endeavours India has embarked upon in the last decade, the transcontinental partnership with Brazil and South Africa is surely one of the most innovative. IBSA is unique because the link between the three countries is not geographical but situational. Each finds itself occupying a similar position with the other two in the global matrix of economic, political, and strategic attributes. As large developing nations with dynamic, multi-branched economies, the IBSA trio have emerged as key players at the international level. As social democracies, they share a political culture that sees openness and the fulfilment of social obligations as key ingredients of governance. And as countries that have been denied their rightful place in global institutions, they share not just the goal of democratising bodies like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund but also an approach to international politics that values dialogue and diplomacy over coercion and the use of force. That is why the IBSA forum has slowly expanded its agenda and sphere of activities. The Tshwane declaration issued at the recent summit in Pretoria offers a good indication of where the grouping is headed. Apart from the issues of global governance, development, and climate change, the document deals with diverse subjects like intellectual property rights, internet governance, and gender as well as a range of regional problems from Afghanistan and Syria to Somalia, Haiti, and Sri Lanka. Given the turmoil in the international economy and the uncertainty emanating from the Eurozone nations, it was natural for the IBSA leaders to stress the need for Europe to implement a credible plan of structural reform. The three also agreed jointly to push for expansion of the UNSC. However, South Africa's inability to get the African Union to endorse the draft resolution being prepared by India, Brazil, Germany, and Japan the G-4 will likely limit its willingness to get into campaign mode in New York. Apart from resolving this disconnect, IBSA needs to deal with two other structural weaknesses. The level of intra-group economic and business relations is relatively low. Secondly, civil society and people-to-people interaction is negligible. The lack of

transportation links speaks volumes for the absence of demand within the triangle. Some headway has been made at the level of trade and investment but not enough. The government can do only so much. It is for the private sector to realise the enormous opportunities that closer relations with Brazil and South Africa bring, in terms of markets and natural resources as well as access to their continents.

Delhi as world heritage city

Delhi, in the centenary year of its designation as a capital city, has taken the first serious step towards seeking World Heritage City status from UNESCO. Three years after initiating the exercise, the State government has commenced its active campaign by launching Delhi: A Heritage City project and preparing a dossier to back its credentials. Aside from honouring the city in a historical sense and enhancing tourism, the much-sought-after designation could significantly improve the conservation of priceless heritage. Delhi is one of the few metropolitan cities with a high concentration of heritage structures: 155 national monuments and another 1,000 culturally important places. Various historical periods have left their imprint and turned the city into an extraordinary mosaic. Shahjahanabad is a grand example of 17th century Mughal urban planning; Mehrauli, built around the 12th century Qutub Minar, is the oldest urban settlement in the city; and New Delhi or Lutyen's Delhi is an impressive expression of 20th century garden city principles. Sadly, conservation efforts have been neither adequate nor effective. About 14 national monuments have been encroached upon and numerous heritage structures lost; continued neglect has turned Shahjahanabad into a near-slum; and the old bungalows of New Delhi have been in constant danger of being pulled down to make way for multi-storeyed buildings. If the campaign succeeds and there is absolutely no reason why it shouldn't Delhi will become the first Indian city to receive world heritage status. Like the 220 other world heritage cities across the world that have benefited from such designation, Delhi could reorient its conservation plans, moving away from the narrow building-centric approach and looking at protection of larger areas. A wider array of heritage elements such as gardens and squares could be safeguarded and the plan itself could be better integrated with contemporary development plans. To the credit of the Delhi government, the entire city has not been included in its proposal for world heritage status. To begin with, it plans to focus on four important heritage zones: Mehrauli, Shahjahanabad, New Delhi, and Nizamuddin. Each of these areas poses specific challenges and, quite obviously, one solution will not fit all. In the New Delhi zone, preserving the architectural character and open space must be the priority, while in Shahjahanabad the thrust has to be on improving the delivery of urban services and retrofitting housing stock. It is only by being inclusive and enabling cities to become better places to live in that conservation can succeed.

J&K: a road map for progress

Fourteen months after a tear gas shell arced over a Srinagar street, killing a teenage bystander who became the first of over a hundred young protesters to die in clashes with the police, New

Delhi has something like a road map for progress. Last week, a three-member panel of interlocutors appointed by the central government to engage political actors in Jammu and Kashmir submitted its report. Based on meetings with more than 6,000 people who participated in 700 delegations from 22 districts, it was a sincere effort to address one of the world's most intractable conflicts. The report is not yet public; it is expected to be submitted first to the members of an all-parties delegation that visited J&K in September 2010. The interlocutors are known to have recommended to the State's major political formations that they must be willing to shed accumulated historical baggage. This itself should trigger a lively debate and, with some luck, yield a template for action. Much of the report is believed to focus on the fraught question of how to grant J&K the largest quantum of autonomy possible while respecting constitutional red lines such as the appellate jurisdiction of the Supreme Court of India and the protection of fundamental rights. This State, the interlocutors are known to have argued, has a unique character as part of the Indian Union but with a distinct constitutional position enshrined in Article 370. Its residents have a special identity, as Indian citizens and subjects of an exceptional State. This identity, though, is made up of multiple, often conflicting, elements. In much reportage, the State's identity is conflated with its most influential and populous region the Kashmir Valley. But the reality is that each of J&K's three major regions is home to multiple ethnicities. Any durable political solution must respect their aspirations though the report, thankfully, is known to have shot down chauvinist proposals for ethnic-religious partitioning. The interlocutors are believed to have called for more movement across the Line of Control and the roll back of laws giving the armed forces special powers. As might be expected, they have reflected critically on the State's battered economy, its fragile administrative institutions, and its widespread corruption. Intriguingly, politicians across the board in J&K have been quick to dismiss the report without reading it, of course. In the year since the outbreak of violence, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's government has shown that improved governance and political outreach can help secure the peace. The report's authors, Dileep Padgaonkar, Radha Kumar, and M. M. Ansari, do not claim to have a solution to the J&K problem. What their efforts have shown is that the long-suffering peoples of a beautiful State have real ideas for building a better future ideas their leaders ought to heed and follow up constructively.

India versus TB
Although the number of new TB cases worldwide remains a matter of concern the figure stood at nearly 9 million in 2010 the incidence rate has been falling since 2002, according to a recent report of the World Health Organisation. Estimates of the year-wise number of deaths reveal a declining trend. Against this background, India presents a dismal picture. Last year, the case detection rate the first and the most vital parameter was only 59 per cent of all cases (both smear positive and smear negative). China, on the other hand, has made tremendous progress in this area the case detection rate increased from 33 per cent in 2000 to 74 per cent in 2006 to 87 per cent in 2010. Prevalence was halved between 1990 and 2010 and the annual rate of decline, which was 2.2 per cent between 1990 and 2000, rose to 4.7 per cent in the next decade. The mortality rate was slashed by almost 80 per cent, and the incidence rate fell by 3.4 per cent, over the past 20 years.

The key factor behind China's success is the mandatory web-based TB reporting system that has been in operation since 2005. This covers virtually every health facility in the country. In addition, all TB deaths are required to be registered in all the 31 provinces. These hard-nosed initiatives have enabled the country to measure the prevalence of even multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB). In stark contrast, underreporting of TB incidence for 2010 in India was as high as 41 per cent, in WHO's reckoning. The reasons for this are not difficult to find. Data are collected only from the government-run institutions and there is no mandatory system for private practitioners to report every confirmed TB case. With many patients seeking treatment from nongovernment doctors, India's contribution to the world's notified cases in 2010 was surely much higher than WHO's estimate of 24 per cent. It is well established that a flawed reporting system and an inaccurate data base undermine the formulation of effective policies. Many private medical practitioners fail to diagnose the disease; and even when they do that, they tend to follow a regimen that is not standard, thereby contributing to the emergence of more MDR-TB cases. Two people die very three minutes in laid-back India from this infectious disease. The government must give the highest priority to the battle against TB, emulating countries that have done dramatically better on this front.

Four winners, one loser

Four by-elections in four States cannot be held up as an index of the national public mood against corruption. But surely it is not without significance that while the winners were different, the loser was the same in each case: the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance. The Hisar Lok Sabha contest came to be seen as a referendum on the Congress by not only the party's political rivals, but also by Team Anna, which has been in the forefront of the campaign for an effective Lokpal Bill against corruption. The victory of Kuldeep Bishnoi of Haryana Janhit Congress, an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party, was on the cards. The real setback for the Congress was a significant erosion in popular support, with its candidate finishing a distant third and losing the deposit. Corruption was a key issue in the election and that hurt the Congress and nobody else. The shocker was in Khadakwasla Assembly constituency in Maharashtra, where the candidate of the party's ally, the Nationalist Congress Party, was the front runner. For all practical purposes, the fight was that of the senior partner: the candidate Harshada Wanjale was a former Congress Zilla Parishad member who contested on the NCP ticket as the seat was allotted to that party. Khadakwasla was the ruling alliance's best chance to take away something from this round of by-elections. It turned out to be a rout. In the two other Assembly by-elections, in Daraunda in Bihar and Banswada in Andhra Pradesh, the stakes were not as high but the losses compounded the Congress's misery. In Daraunda, the Janata Dal(United), capitalising on the popularity of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, closed out both the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress. In Banswada, the game was quite different: Telangana overrode all other issues, and Pocharam Srinivas Reddy, who resigned as a Telugu Desam member to contest again as a Telangana Rashtra Samiti candidate, trounced the ruling Congress party candidate by a huge margin. For the loser, there were different lessons from the four by-elections. Hisar showed that corruption is a powerful issue, and that the party can no longer make light of the movement for a strong anti-corruption institutional mechanism. Khadakwasla taught the Congress and the NCP that opportunistic, short-sighted politics does not

pay. Daraunda exposed the Congress's grassroots weaknesses. Banswada served as a reality check on the Telangana issue, demonstrating the spreading popular support for statehood in the region. A party in denial might be tempted to dismiss these results as no more than straws in the wind. The real point is that each one of the straws, coming from different directions, is a bearer of grim tidings.

ISAF fiddles the figures

Press releases issued during wars may be deemed to be closer to propaganda than anything else but they still need careful analysis. A meticulously researched report by Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn published at the Afghanistan Analysts Network identifies cause for much concern in the 3,771 press releases put out by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan between December 1, 2009 and September 30, 2011 (https://www.afghanistan-analysts.net/uploads/AAN_2011_ISAFPressReleases.pdf). The two researchers, who live in Kandahar, focussed on ISAF's kill-or-capture policy, the use of which increased sharply during General David Petraeus's time in command from July 2010 to July 2011. Their first conclusion is that, while ISAF has reduced its use of kill-or-capture, it has not ended the practice. Secondly, the strategy is supposed to be targeted at leaders' and facilitators' but in a total of 3,157 incidents, including 2,365 kill-or-capture raids, only 174 leaders' and 25 facilitators' were killed. Even by the military's own figures, these deaths amounted to 5 per cent of the total killed, while those detained made up 13 per cent of the 7,146 held. Thirdly, ISAF itself muddies the data by often putting facilitators' in the leaders' category; and its aggregated data sometimes do not match the figures in the press releases. ISAF's media policy is riddled with contradictions. One ISAF official says that if his side does not fill the early information void after an event, the Taliban version will win the day. This means that accuracy is not an issue and the data cannot be trusted. But even the aim of beating the Taliban to the press is negated by the fact that only a few of the releases are put out in Dari or Pashto; the great majority are in English and are meant for foreign reception first and foremost. Obvious parallels arise with Iraq, where U.S. troops and their allies began releasing body counts without formal clearance from Washington but had their figures challenged by eyewitnesses and survivors. The current media strategy implies that ISAF does not have to answer to Afghans and may even be indifferent to what they think of the incidents. In addition, it appears that the politicians and commanders directing foreign troops in Afghanistan are replicating the notorious practice of falsifying the figures to exaggerate their own successes for domestic consumption. The parallel here is really with Viet Nam. Both the invasion of Iraq and the war of aggression against Viet Nam were completely unlawful. ISAF, by contrast, has a United Nations mandate but by fiddling the figures it is undermining even its own formal legitimacy.

Japan's aid diplomacy & India

The decision by Japan to exempt India from the cuts it has implemented in its overseas aid programmes following the tsunami and the nuclear disaster at Fukushima is an indication that Tokyo, despite its internal political turmoil, is giving its ties with New Delhi high priority.

Financial aid may sound like a paradoxical way to go about this. After all, India ranked among the world's top emerging economies, with a high growth rate is not desperate for the money. Indeed, India now gives considerable financial assistance to neighbouring countries and to Africa. It is a contributor to the poverty alleviation fund set up by the India-Brazil-South Africa grouping and managed by the United Nations, among other projects. But it also continues to receive funding from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, the European Union, the Scandinavian countries and a few others, aside from what these countries channelise through non-governmental organisations. While foreign funding constitutes a minuscule fraction of India's GDP, it is not irrelevant. Fewer strings are attached to it today than three decades ago, when India was in dire need of it. India is also better equipped than it was, in knowledge and capacity, to utilise the money. Foreign funding can be deployed in the battle to make health, water, and sanitation available to millions of Indians who live without these facilities; it can be used for global initiatives, of which India is a part the fight against climate change, for instance. It is also used in infrastructure projects. Financial aid from Japan funds the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, a $100-billion infrastructure development that extends over six States. Japan's aid diplomacy with India should be seen in the context of ties that have improved steadily in the last decade but are yet to break the surface. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement the two countries signed last year promises to further trade relations that have stagnated far below their potential. In parallel, both sides have also sought to develop a strategic partnership. The exemption from aid cuts has come ahead of the fifth round of the India-Japan Strategic Dialogue scheduled for the end of October, in which the Indian side will be led by External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna, and a visit to Japan by Defence Minister A.K. Antony in the first week of November. Both events are likely to focus on issues of maritime security in the East Asian region, including in the South China Sea. But while it is in India's interests to find a firmer footing with Japan, New Delhi should guard against attempts to project this relationship as a counterpoint to China.

Supporting the export effort

The government's new incentive package for exporters is meant to help some of them cope with the looming uncertainties in the global markets. It will cost the exchequer Rs.900 crore. Taken along with the interest subsidy of 2 per cent announced by the Reserve Bank of India a couple of days earlier for labour-intensive industries such as handicrafts, handlooms, and carpets and for small and medium exporters, the cost will add up to at least Rs.1,700 crore. Obviously, there would be questions as to whether the amount is really enough to restore the competitive edge and whether it is well targeted. It is said that the new measures are part of the Foreign Trade Policy (2009-14) and will be incorporated in its next annual supplement. That should elevate what may seem to be ad hoc measures to the status of policy, giving them a semblance of durability. The intention clearly is to dovetail the ingredients of this package with the broader thrust of the foreign trade policy, which seeks to reward exporters who move into newer markets in Latin America, Africa, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), with an additional one percentage point duty credit. Around 50 products in the engineering, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals sectors would get the special bonus, subject to certain

conditions. For many years now, the government's trade policy has aggressively promoted the diversification of India's exports to non-traditional markets and products. That strategy appears to have paid off, if recent export performance is anything to go by. Between April and August this year, exports grew by 54.2 per cent over the same period a year ago to touch $134.5 billion. Such a scorching pace will be hard to sustain, however. India's traditional export markets the United States and Europe which account for about 35 per cent of the total, are facing uncertain times and virtually flat economic growth. Since Indian exporters would be hard pressed to sustain their volumes in these markets, let alone increase them, their initiatives to get into the non-traditional markets make good sense. The export performance has been commendable also because it has come in the face of large uncertainties caused by the fluctuating rupee and rising interest rates. Obviously, India's trade figures are extremely relevant in the larger context of balance of payments. According to RBI data, merchandise trade deficit has gone up to $35.54 billion from $31.38 billion during the first quarter of this fiscal year. That is another reason why export promotion ought to remain a top priority.

Good monsoon but bad forecast

The rains have been good during this year's south-west monsoon. The season ended with the country, as a whole, receiving one per cent more rain than the long-period average. The rains have been geographically well distributed too, with the north-west, the central region, and the southern part of the country getting more than average rainfall. Only the north-east recorded a deficit. Consequently, the country is looking forward to a bumper harvest in the kharif season. In this optimistic scenario, it is easy to forget that the India Meteorological Department's forecasts had gone awry. In mid-April, the IMD put the countrywide seasonal rainfall at 98 per cent of the long-period average, with an error bar of five percentage points. In June, the agency revised it as 95 per cent with an error bar of four percentage points. While the country received excess rain in June, the rains in July were considerably below par. By the end of July, the nationwide deficit for the season stood at about four per cent. On August 1, the IMD declared that countrywide rainfall during August-September was likely to be 90 per cent of the long-period average, with an error bar of eight percentage points. This forecast raised the possibility of the monsoon fizzling out. But, as things turned out, the rains were well above average during both August and September. In its end-of-season report, the IMD agreed that its operational long-range forecasts had not been very accurate. It explained that the sudden re-emergence of a La Nina the cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is usually beneficial for the monsoon led to increased rainfall in the second half of the season. What is clear is that the department needs to re-evaluate the parameters that go into the statistical model used for its seasonal predictions. These parameters have remained unchanged for the past five years. It is possible that the correlation of some of them with the monsoon's outcome has dropped sharply and must therefore be replaced with new ones. There is also a good case for focussing on probabilistic forecasts. The IMD's April forecast indicated a 93 per cent probability that the monsoon would be normal', with the nationwide rainfall between 90 per cent and 110 per cent of the long-period average; in June, that probability had dropped only to 80 per cent. Rainfall data for over a century show that seven years out of ten

fall into this category. Thus, the probabilistic forecasts showed that this year the odds favoured a normal monsoon. And that, mercifully, is just how things have turned out.

Captive to domestic politics

With its international economic policy very much captive to factious domestic politics, the United States is hardly in a position to exercise the global economic leadership role that would have been expected of it in these abnormal times. Since the financial crisis of 2008, it has been the robust growth in countries such as India and China that offset the anaemic performance in the advanced economies. Indeed, the advanced economies are in worse shape today than they were during the initial phase of the recovery. With euro zone policymaking also in disarray, emerging economies have even greater reasons to worry. They realise that solutions to most of the global economic problems will not come from the West because of the divisive politics in the U.S. and the euro zone countries. In the U.S. the bickering in Congress over debt and deficit has rendered much of its international economic policymaking counterproductive. Gains have been few and far between, and even those, such as the much-delayed Congressional approval to bilateral trade deals with South Korea, Panama and Colombia, are not considered significant. These deals were negotiated four or five years ago by the previous administration, and, in any case, are unlikely to contribute significantly now to growth and employment. Most of the tariffs with South Korea are already low. However, these pacts have been widely blamed by the trade unions and the public for sending jobs abroad. The debate over the trade deals has become a proxy for those over employment and globalisation. Free trade has become a casualty as the world's number one economy has turned inwards embracing protectionism in many notable instances. The Doha development round of trade talks is as good as dead. The absence of political will in the U.S. to pursue free trade agreements overruling significant domestic opposition is palpable. Even more ominous is the purport of a bill recently passed by the Senate that aims to punish China for holding down its currency and hence boosting its export competitiveness. Any fundamentally misaligned currency would be deemed to be a subsidy subject to countervailing duties. The move has been severely criticised by China and other countries which see in the new legislation shades of the protectionist policies of the 1930s that made the Great Depression even worse. The World Trade Organisation is sure to frown upon the imposition of such duties. There is a fear that such a move might lead to full-blown trade and currency wars between the world's top two economies, with all other countries being inevitably drawn into them.

A Megha bonanza
The Indo-French atmospheric research satellite, Megha-Tropiques, is now safely ensconced in orbit, a fact that will gladden the hearts of many scientists around the world. This is just the second satellite that will gaze down on the formation of clouds and powerful storms in the tropical regions of the world. The ageing U.S.-Japanese Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in 1997 and still operational, has provided a bonanza of information. There are high expectations from Megha-Tropiques, which will concentrate even more on the tropics

and provide greater coverage of the region. This satellite will measure the flow of energy and the build-up of water vapour at different levels in the atmosphere, both critical factors in the evolution of large cloud systems. By deciphering the complex linkages between land, ocean, and atmosphere, it will be possible to greatly improve weather and climate models, making for better monsoon prediction. It should also provide vital clues for determining whether a warming climate could lead to more rain or less. And the benefits will not be restricted to India. That the 21 science teams formed for the mission have drawn scientists from 11 countries is a testament to its global importance. After a three-month period during which the instruments on the satellite will be calibrated and another six months when data will go only to the international science teams, data from the satellite will be freely accessible to all. A number of groups from various countries, including India, have plans to feed the data in real-time into their simulation models for weather prediction. In the meantime, another Indo-French satellite, SARAL, which will study the oceans, is being prepared for launch next year. Along with the Megha-Tropiques, the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) also carried three tiny satellites as co-passengers, two of them designed and developed by the faculty and students of Indian academic institutions. The three-kilogramme Jugnu nanosatellite came from IIT Kanpur and the 11-kilogramme SRMSat from the SRM University near Chennai. The PSLV had launched the 40-kilogramme ANUSAT from Anna University in 2009, and last year it put up the STUDSAT, weighing less than one kilogramme, built by a consortium of seven engineering colleges in Bangalore and Hyderabad. This sort of effort must be encouraged. For one thing, novel technologies can be tested quite cheaply. More importantly, putting together any satellite, however small, that will survive the rigours of launch and then work in the hostile environment of space is a tremendous challenge. It is unquestionably an excellent way to train the technology leaders of tomorrow that India needs.