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Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Heed the 6th Year Mark
Executive Condominiums (ECs) are treated as government housing at the start, whereby buyers are subject to similar conditions as HDB estates such as family nucleus. Income ceiling is adjusted slightly higher at SGD12,000 compared to SGD10,000. Once purchased, the unit must be held and stayed in within a 5-year MOP period. At the start of the 6th year, eligibility conditions become more relaxed: buyers need not form a family nucleus to buy an EC from the resale market and purchasing power falls exclusively to Singaporeans and PRs. However, buyers will not be eligible for CPF Housing Grants as it will be treated as private housing. Based on the past analysis of trends on ECs, selling prices were found to rise in tandem with private condominium resale prices after the 10th-year mark is crossed. So, are there any discrepancies between EC resale prices verses private condos after the 5th year? Currently, there are eight projects on the market, which are still within the 6th10th year mark. We find that in certain ECs, prices appear to have already caught up to private resale prices in their vicinity; yet, there are still some opportunities for eligible buyers. For example, units above 1,500sq ft appear to be sold at a steeper discount than smaller units. We highlight three fairly new projects in the resale market.
Figure 1: ECs within the 6th10th year mark No. Project name TOP years Address The Quintet 2006 6 Choa Chu Kang Street 64 Whitewater 2005 7 Pasir Ris Street 72 The Esparis 2006 6 Pasir Ris Drive 4 Nuovo 2004 8 Ang Mo Kio Ave 6/ Ave 9 The Dew 2004 8 Bukit Batok Street 21 Bishan Loft 2004 8 Bishan St 11 The Eden 2004 8 Tampines Street 34 Lilydale 2003 9 Yishun Avenue 6
Source: company data * listed on propertyguru.com
23 August 2012
Land cost ($ psf) 160 139 135 160 149 212 160 139
Launch price (psf) 366 377 370 388 385 423 400 361
Rental (psf pm)* 2.8 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.0 3.7 2.6 2.6
Figure 3: Whitewater
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Sep-02 Source: URA May-05 Feb-08 Nov-10
Rising ahead of new sales. Whitewater is situated in the heart of Pasir Ris HDB estates, across from Pasir Ris West Plaza. The closest private condos and ECs would be Belysa, NV Residences, Ris Grandeur, and The Palette. Whitewater is selling at a 16.6% discount to Ris Grandeur, which TOPed on the same year. The newly-launched EC, Belysa, is selling at a 12.8% discount to Whitewater.
Figure 5: Within Whitewaters (EC) vicinity TOP Belysa (EC) NV Residences Ris Grandeur The Palette Whitewater (EC)
Source: URA
Developer NTUC Choice Home & CEL Development CDL FCL Tampines CDL, Hong Realty, Hong Leong Far East
Leasehold 99 Yr 99 Yr Freehold 99 Yr 99 Yr
The Palette
Source: onemap.sg
Source: URA
Older private projects run ahead of ECs. Esparis is also located in the Pasir Ris district. Esparis is selling at a slight discount of 11%, compared to Eastvale, an older estate in the vicinity. Loyang Valley that TOP in 1985 is selling at a discount of only 8% discount compared to Esparis. The newly-launched EC, Watercolours, is selling at a premium of only 4% to the older EC.
Figure 8: Within The Esparis (EC) vicinity TOP Watercolours (EC) Seastrand Eastvale Loyang Valley Esparis (EC)
Source: URA
Developer Ho Lee Group, Maxdin, GPS, EVIA Far East Capitaland Loyang Valley City Development
Leasehold 99 Yr 99 Yr 99 yr 99 yr 99 Yr
23 August 2012
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& QUINTET
Bright side of ECs for buyers. The Quintet has fared well against private condos located right next to its plot. In fact, all three plots, Regent Grove, Windermere and Quintet, are trading within a similar price range with a 510% difference among one another. We also find that there are still hidden gems in ECs larger units (>1,800 sq ft) that are found to command prices below SGD600 psf.
Figure 9: Within Quintets (EC) vicinity TOP Regent Grove Windermere Quintet
Source: URA
Leasehold 99 Yr 99 Yr 99 Yr
% difference 5% -9%
Regent Grove
800 750 700 The Quintet 650 600 550 Windermere 500 Nov-10 Source: URA
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jul-12
Source: onemap.sg
Figure 12: Quintet transaction prices of units > 1,500 sq ft Date $ PSF SQFT Feb 2012 528 1,798 Feb 2012 546 2,142 May 2012 556 1,798 Apr 2012 565 2,142 Mar 2012 570 4,747 Dec 2011 579 2,508 Jan 2011 580 1,270 Nov 2011 584 1,798
Source: URA
23 August 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Property Price Indices
Index SRPI Overall (Jun 12) URA PPI (2Q12) HDB Resale (2Q12) Level 168.2 206.9 194.0 Change +1.4% +0.4% +1.3% Reserve List
23 August 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Site Jalan Jurong Kechil Stirling Road Tampines Av 10 (Parcel B) Kim Tian Road
Site area (Ha) 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.6 1.7 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.7
Units 240 1045 515 500 na 495 680 470 600 595
Status Available Available Available Available Available Avail. in Sept Avail. in Oct Avail. in Oct Avail. in Nov Avail. in Dec
Sengkang West Way Alexandra Road/ Alexandra View (Parcel B) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel C) Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel D) Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel B) New Upper Changi Road / Bedok South Avenue 3 (Parcel B)
Collective sales
418 706 417 508 202 676 Site Westvale Novena Ville Jade Towers Bartley Grove Awarded to Roxy Pacific Fragrance Group Roxy Pacific Top Global Site Chancery Garden Chateau Eliza
Successful en-blocs
$psf ppr 883 1730 807 810
Confirmed List
Site Tai Thong Crescent (Parcel C) Farrer Road Prince Charles Crescent Bright Hill Drive Punggol Way/ Punggol Walk (EC) Dairy Farm Road Woodlands Avenue 6/ Woodlands Drive 16 (EC) New Upper Changi Road/ Bedok Road (Parcel A) Sengkang West Way/ Fernvale Link (Parcel B) (EC) Pasir Ris Drive 3/ Pasir Ris Rise (EC) Bishan Street 14 Sembawang Crescent/ Sembawang Drive (EC) Punggol Field Walk/ Punggol East (EC) Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2/ Ang Mo Kio Street 13 Jurong West Street 41/ Boon Lay Way (Parcel A) Commonwealth Avenue Source: HDB, URA *last day of Tender Site area (Ha) 0.8 0.2 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 3.2 1.4 2.8 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.2 Est. Launch Units date 265 40 N/A 405 560 390 465 540 420 590 645 650 435 680 825 700 6-Sep* 28-Aug* Accept 7-Aug Jul-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 Sept-12 Sept-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Property Stocks
Disc to Company Price RNAV RNAV CapitaLand 2.96 5.03 -41% City Dev 11.9 12.62 -6% Guocoland 1.7 NA NA Ho Bee 1.225 2.98 -59% Keppel land 3.48 5.78 -40% OUE 2.39 NA NA SC Global 0.975 3.71 -74% Singapore Land 5.97 9.71 -39% UIC 2.78 NA NA UOL 5.1 NA NA Wheelock 1.83 NA NA Wing Tai 1.38 2.81 -51% N.A. = No Coverage *As at latest reported NAV /share 3.66 7.66 2.15 2.34 3.81 3.53 1.56 11.78 3.16 6.49 2.35 2.51 Disc/ Prem to NAV -19% 55% -21% -48% -9% -32% -38% -49% -12% -21% -22% -45%
23 August 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 28% 54% 30% 33% 30% 84% 29% 54% 72% 86% 82% 10% 93% 84% 42% 82% 71% 84% 73% 52% 86% 84% 80% 57% 56% 71% 44% 68% 87% 96% 82% 96% 98% 63% 95% 48% 51% 81% 100% 92% 38% 93% 78% 97% 53%
Units sold (Jul)
Media n
23 August 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf May12 1,547 1,931 1,396 1,286 1,234 873 1,142 877 944 $psf Jun12 1,483 1,739 1,302 1,025 1,041 792 937 823 782 MoM % change -4.1 -9.9 -6.7 -20.3 -15.6 -9.3 -18.0 -6.2 -17.2
($psf) 2,061 1,530 1,393 2,077 1,527 1,549 1,400 1,352 1,348 1,252 1,270 2,238 1,248 1,107 874 880 806 899 1,155 732 905 902 924 836 1,343 812 1,492 1,071 904 1,069 1,100 727 733 857 710 1,095 1,119 1,318 485 721 720 820 884 865 1,151
City & Southwest (1-8) V on Shenton 510 144 Seahill 454 244 Cityscape @ Farrer Park 250 76 Orchard/Tanglin/Holland (9-10) Stellar RV 120 40 D'Leedon 1715 517 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 104 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Eight Riversuites 862 251 M66 70 38 Tropika East 105 76 Idyllic Suites 71 61 Flamingo Valley 393 321 East Coast (15-16) 130 13 The Line @ Tanjong Rhu Sycamore Tree 96 89 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) Archipelago 577 485 Parc Olympia 486 204 Sea Easta 376 308 The Tampines Trilliant 670 475 The Palette 892 745 My Manhattan 301 220 Watercolours 416 218 Ripple Bay 679 583 Seastrand 473 397 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Parc Centros 618 492 River Isles 610 346 Bartley Residences 702 392 Flo Residences 530 378
Haus@Serangoon Garden
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm May12 4.7 4.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.5 $psf pm Jun12 5.1 4.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 MoM % Change 8.2 1.9 -2.4 -6.7 0.8 3.7 0.2 -2.1 3.0
The Waterline Austville Residences Twin Waterfalls Riversound Residence West (22-24) Blossom Residences Hillsta Foresque Residences Natura @ Hillview North (25-28) The Woods Parc Rosewood 1 Canberra Eight Courtyard The Nautical The Miltonia Residences Seletar Park Residences Source: URA
97 622 452 164 103 540 728 590 602 416 496 193 93 689 665 654 435 410 276
43 420 391 158 84 517 717 372 569 200 255 157 93 633 255 609 339 396 147
23 August 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 23 Sentosa Landbank
23 August 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 20 560 118 122 54 203 178 156 4 122 147 624 912 605 131 310 785 54 50 207
City Dev
One Shenton (Marina Bay) Alexandra Road GLS site (Alexandra Road) South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Up @ Robertson Quay (Robertson Quay) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) The Palette (Pasir Ris) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North (Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North) H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley Road) Haus @ Serangoon Garden (Serangoon Garden Way) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) 15, 19 & 21 Swiss Road (Swiss Club Road) Total Unsold Units
5,362 99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 50 590 275 367 234 94 202 1,812 306 39 13 5 1,198 55 150 63 379 140 2,348 110 357 6 473 Freehold 99yr 33 92 203 174 131 248 5 147 33 20 2 79 839 72 84 156
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19
Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 6 (Keppel Bay) The Luxurie (Sengkang Square) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Orchard Residences (Orchard Road) Wharf Residence (Tong Watt Road) D'Leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences (Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
CapitaLand
3 9 9 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
99Yr Freehold 99Yr 999Yr 99Yr Freehold Freehold 99Yr 99Yr Freehold
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa 11
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Trilight (Newton Road) Total Unsold Units
UOL
2 16
Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) Holland Residences (Taman Warna) Riverbay (Mar Thorma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thorma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 1D) (Bukit Batok Road) Pavilion Park (Phase 2) (Bukit Batok Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
Allgreen
2 5 9 10 12 12 21 23 23
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
23 August 2012
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23 August 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 2 381 76 19 978 57 48 24 88 221 80 232 68 818 249 72 18 595 76 117 96 46 11 45 1,325 6 64 38 42 157 27 241 156 731 32 70 65 23 96 590 876 35 200 22 35 31 323
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah / Choon Guan) Sophia Residence (Mount Sophia) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) Goodwood Residence (Bukit Timah Road) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Nouvel 18 (Anderson Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23 10
MCL Land
11 10 15 16 17 22
Palms @ Sixth Avenue (Six Avenue ) NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Uber 388 (Upper East Cost) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Boon Lay (Jurong East) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 9 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) Sculptura Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units
16166
23 August 2012
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23 August 2012
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Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 23 August 2012, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 23 August 2012, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
23 August 2012
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