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Macroeconomic Outlook
Ukraine is gradually recovering from the 2008 crisis, although it carries a high degree of vulnerability to external demand and commodity prices. Its output is still below the level in 2007 as opposed to CIS peers. GDP growth is estimated to have grown by 5.3% in Q1, slowed to 3.8% in Q2 and rebounded in H2 on a strong harvest. Growth could reach 4.5% this year and slow considerably in 2012 on global demand. Higher social expenses and state investments are expected to give short-term support to domestic demand in H2 2011. Rising imports and a likely deterioration of Ukraines terms of trade - defined as steel export versus energy import prices pose a risk to Ukraines current account balance. It stood at 2.8% of GDP in August YTD and may reach 6% in 2012 in case the current gas contract applies. These increased exchange rate risks due to Ukraines external financing constraints. NBU reserves dropped from $38.2bn to $35bn in September and without unblocking the IMF loans Ukraines external liquidity would weaken further next year. The next IMF mission is due in Oct/Nov. Deputy PM Tigipko is proposing full program compliance to avoid having to look eye-to-eye with another crisis. The freezing of capital markets for Ukraine limit the governments loan options. Ukraines fiscal position has improved and default is not a threat at present. The Jan-Aug. state budget balance is -0.4% of GDP. With 2.4% GDP cash reserves the Treasury has already pre-financed Ukraine's net borrowing need for the year. The gross issuance is, however, being increasingly monetised. Next years domestic budget (re-)financing may require higher NBU purchases. External debt service may require the use of FX reserves. UAH one-year NDF yield reached UAH 10 against the USD or nearly 30%. (compared to 8.5 in mid-summer). Domestic government bond yields rose to 14% - 17% on one-year to four-year bonds and newly issued USD-indexed three-year UAH bonds 8.2%. The market challenge highlights the importance of Ukraines IMF program.
GDP growth has been growing at an annualised pace of c. 4% y/y. The global growth outlook made us revise Ukraines growth forecast lower to 4.5% this year. It is likely to slow considerably in 2012.
120
115
110
5
105
100
95
90
-20
85 2008 2009 2010 2011
80
15
60
40
-5
20
-15
-25
-35 Mar-07 S ep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 S ep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11
Foreign trade
Exports, imports and trade balance
Ukraine remains exposed to commodity price risks. Trade exposure to Asia could soften the export shock in case European demand falls.
80 60 40 20 % 0 -2.0 3.0 Trade balance 6mma rhs, U$ bn Imports 6mma % y/y lhs Exports 6mma % y/y lhs
8.0
-20 -40 -60 -80 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10
-7.0
Machinery 11%
-12.0 Jul-11
3.9
Average Europe
20
Belarus 1Q 2011
15
Ukraine 1Q 2011
264
10
Belarus 2Q 2011
5 U$ bn
Ukraine 2Q 2011
295
Belarus 3Q 2011
-5
Ukraine actual 3Q 2011 TTF current spot price Ukraine 3Q 2011 no discount U$ 0 100 200 300
355
-10
372
-15
-20
-25
60
8.0
40
7.0 6.0
20
5.0
0
4.0 3.0
-20
2.0
-40
1.0 0.0
-60 Jan04 O ct04 Jul05 Apr06 Jan07 Oct07 J ul08 Apr09 Jan10 Oct10 Jul11
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 F 2012 F
60%
0%
Productivity level
GDP per person employed
70,000
60,000
United States
50,000 c onstant 1990 PPP $
40,000
30,000
Turkey
20,000
10,000
0 Brazil Turkey G ermany Hong Kong, China United States India Uk raine Russia China Azerbaijan World
Brazil Uk raine
2011 1
40 -10 30 -20 20
-1
10
-40
UAH bn
-30
-3
-5
-50 0 -60
-7
Czech R.
Hungary
Latvia
Ukraine
Russia
Poland
Gen. govt. budget balance 12mma rhs Expenditures % y/y, lhs Revenues lhs -20 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10
-70
-80 Jul-11
Kazakhstan
Croatia
Lithuania
Turkey
Serbia
-10
-9
10
20
60,000
15 %
40,000
10
5
20,000
May-11
Nov-09
Nov-10
Mar-09
Mar-11
Mar-10
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Jan-09
Jul-11
Jul-09
6,000
4,000
2,000
3,660
3,012
3,560
2,500
2,143
1,234
1,639
525
May-12
Mar-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
33
2,147
Aug-13
2,590
May-13
Nov-12
Dec-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Sep-13
Feb-12
Mar-13
Apr-12
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jul-12
Jul-13
2,753
12
External balance
A moderate crawling devaluation is conceivable under a negative external balance scenario
Balance of payments deteriorating
Ukraines current account position is under market watch due to its financing constraints. Under the fixed gas contract terms and weaker steel demand/prices the current account deficit could widen to $10bn or 6% of GDP. (A pessimistic scenario).
25 Capital and fin. a/c balance 4Q cum. Current ac c. balance 4Q cum. 20
6000
mln U$
Other capital, loans and bonds Portfolio investment, net Direct investment, net
15
4000
10 U$ bn
2000
-2000
-5
-4000
-10
-6000
14
120
5000
1000
100
4000
80
800
3000
60
600
40
2000
400
20
1000
200
0 1/28/2008 4/28/2008 1/28/2009 4/28/2009 7/28/2009 1/28/2011 10/28/2008 4/28/2011 7/28/2008 7/28/2010 1/28/2010 4/28/2010 10/28/2009 10/28/2010 7/28/2011
0 1/28/2008 7/28/2008 4/28/2009 7/28/2009 1/28/2010 4/28/2010 1/28/2011 10/28/2008 10/28/2009 10/28/2010 7/28/2011 4/28/2008 1/28/2009 7/28/2010 4/28/2011
15
200
150 100 50
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