You are on page 1of 8

Chapter 17 Project Management

Application #1: Constructing Activity on Node Diagrams


An upcoming project has the following activities that need to be completed. Construct an ActivityOn-Node (AON) diagram for this project. Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) A --B A C A, B D B E C, D

An upcoming project has the following activities that need to be completed. Construct an ActivityOn-Node (AON) diagram for this project. Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) A --B --C A, B D A, B, C E D

Application #2: Constructing Activity on Node Diagrams


An upcoming project has the following activities that need to be completed. Construct an ActivityOn-Node (AON) diagram for this project. Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) A --B A C A, B D C E C, A F E G F, E

Application #3: Identifying Critical Path and Completion Times


A manager has identified that her project has the following AON diagram of activities.

A 5

C 4

Start
B 13 E 2

Finish

Which activities are on the critical path? B-E How long is the critical path? 15 Time Periods What is the earliest start date for Activity A? ES = 0 What is the latest start date for Activity A? LS = 6 How many periods of Slack are there? Activity A: Slack = LS ES = 6 0 = 6 Activity B: Slack = LS ES = 11 5 = 6 Activities on critical path (i.e, B and E) have slack of 0.

Application #4: Identifying Critical Path and Completion Times


A manager has identified that his project has the following AON diagram of activities.

W 5

Y 4

Start
X 13 Z 2

Finish

Note: Arrow from Y to Finish should be removed. It is not needed, as Z comes after Y. Which activities are on the critical path? X-Y-Z How long is the critical path? 19 time periods What is the earliest start date for Activity W? ES = 0 What is the latest start date for Activity W? LS = 8 How many periods of Slack are there for each Activity? Critical path activities (i.e., X, Y, Z) = 0 Activity W: Slack = LS ES = 8 0 = 8

Application #5: Crashing the Project Time


A manager has identified that his project has the following AON diagram of activities.
W 5 Y 4

Start
X 13 Z 2

Finish

The manager has also identified the following costs related to each of the project tasks: Activity W X Y Z Normal Time 5 13 4 2 Crash Time 3 8 3 1 Cost Per Period to Crash $200 $300 $400 $500

What is the lowest-cost way to crash the total project completion time by 1 period? Before crashing, the critical path is X-Y-Z. So, to shorten the project completion time, we must shorten (i.e., crash) either X or Y or Z. Crashing X costs us $300 per day, which is the cheapest option for shortening the critical path. So, we would choose to crash Activity X by one period. What is the lowest-cost way to crash the total project completion time by 6 periods? Initial Path Lengths W-Y = 9; W-Z = 7; X-Y = 17; X-Z = 15; X-Y-Z = 19 Cheapest way to crash: Crash Activity X to 8 periods, costing us 5 * $300 = $1500 W-Y = 9; W-Z = 7; X-Y = 12; X-Z = 10; X-Y-Z = 14 Next Step: Critical Path is still X-Y-Z. Cannot crash X any more. So, crash Activity Y by one period at a cost of $400. W-Y = 8; W-Z = 7; X-Y = 11; X-Z = 10; X-Y-Z = 13 What is the minimum project completion time (and associated crashing cost) for this project? If we crash Z by one, every activity on critical path is at minimum (crash) time. Minimum completion time is 12 periods; total crashing cost = $1500 + $400 +$500 = $2400 Lengths W-Y = 8, W-Z = 6 means that paths going through W are not critical, and we cant save any more money by crashing activity W

Application #6: Crashing the Project Time


A manager has identified that his project has the following AON diagram of activities.
Y 10

Start

A 5

B 4

C 2

D 2

Finish

The manager has also identified the following costs related to each of the project tasks: Activity A B C D Y Normal Time (weeks) 5 4 2 2 10 Crash Time (weeks) 3 2 1 1 8 Cost Per Week to Crash $200 $300 $400 $500 $100

Crash this project, period-by-period, until you obtain the minimum length project. How much will this cost you to crash the project by that much? Initially, critical path is A-B-C-D. Length is 13 weeks. 1 week shorter We first shorten the critical path. Activity A is cheapest, so we spend $200 to crash A by one week. After crashing, critical path is still ABCD, but length is now 12 weeks. Total cost = $200 2 weeks shorter Activity A is still cheapest, so we spend $200 to crash A by one week. CP = ABCD; Length = 11 weeks; Total cost = $400 3 weeks shorter A cannot be crashed anymore. So, crash next cheapest = B. Costs $300. CP = Y and ABCD; Length = 10 weeks; Total cost = $700 4 weeks shorter To crash one week, must crash Y and B. Costs $100 for Y. Costs $300 for B. CP = Y and ABCD; Length = 9 weeks; Total cost = $1100 5 weeks shorter B cannot be crashed anymore. To crash one week, must crash Y and C. Costs $100 for Y. Costs $400 for C. CP = Y and ABCD; Length = 8 weeks; Total cost = $1600 Cant crash anything more Y is at its minimum completion time. 6

Application #7: Probabilistic Time Estimates


A manager has identified that his project has the following AON diagram of activities.
W 5 Y 4

Start
X 13 Z 2

Finish

The manager has now identified the following probabilistic times related to each of the project tasks: Normal Time 5 13 4 2 Probabilistic Time Estimates Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time to tm tp 4 5 7 10 13 20 3 4 7 1 2 5

Activity W X Y Z

te =

t o + 4t m + t p 6

=
2

(t p t o ) 2 36

path =

(var iances of activities on path)


Optimistic Time to 4 10 3 1 Most Likely Time tm 5 13 4 2 Pessimistic Time tp 7 20 7 5 Expected Completion Time 5.17 13.67 4.33 2.33 Standard Deviation 0.5 1.67 0.67 0.67

What is the Expected Completion Time for each activity? What is the Standard Deviation of the completion time distribution for each activity? Activity W X Y Z Variance 0.25 2.78 0.44 0.44

What is the Standard Deviation of Path X-Ys completion time distribution? Var(path X-Y) = variance(X) + variance(Y) = 2.78 +0.44 = 3.22 SD(path X-Y) = sqrt(3.22) = 1.79

What is the probability that path X-Y can be completed in 18 weeks or less? z = (specified time path mean)/path standard deviation Mean(Path X-Y) = 13.67 + 4.33 = 18 z = (18 18)/1.79 = 0 From Table B in your appendix, Prob(Z < 0) = 0.50 Thus, there is approximately a 50% chance of completing the project in 18 weeks.

What is the probability that path X-Y can be completed in 25 weeks or less? z = (25 18)/1.79 = 7/1.79 = 3.91 From Table B in your appendix, Prob(Z < 3.91) = 0.9999 Thus, there is approximately a 100% chance of completing the project in 25 weeks.

What is the probability that path X-Y can be completed in 14 weeks or less? z = (14 18)/1.79 = -4/1.79 = -2.23 From Table B in your appendix, Prob(Z < -2.23) = 0.0129 Thus, there is approximately a 1.3% chance of completing the project in 14 weeks.