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Grant Thornton LLP. All rights reserved.
David Weild
Leader, Grant Thornton's Capital Markets group Chairman & CEO, Capital Markets Advisory Partners Chairman of the Small Business Crisis Task Force for the International Stock Exchange Executives Emeriti (non-profit) Former vice-chairman and executive vice-president of NASDAQ Numerous senior management roles at Prudential Securities, including: President of PrudentialFinancial.com Co-Head of strategy (banking, research, institutional sales and trading) Head of corporate finance Head of equity capital markets and equity syndicate globally Head of technology investment banking Commitment Committee member
documented by [Weild & Kim's] studies led to the JOBS Act (HR 3606)."
"Broken Markets" Sal Arnuk and Joseph Saluzzi page 198 FT Press May 2012
The problems
"The financial system has been wounded by a flood of so-called innovations that merely promote hyper-rapid tradingIndividual investors are being shortchanged."
John C. Bogle, founder of VANGUARD "A Mutual Fund Master, Too Worried to Rest" By Jeff Sommer The New York Times August 11, 2012
"Markets are still adjusting to regulatory changes like the Order Handling Rules and Regulation ATS that were made over a decade ago."
Professor Robert Schwartz Baruch College Marvin M. Speiser Professor of Finance and University Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Zicklin School of Business
"The irony of all this is that the change in Order Handling Rules [in 1997] that were instituted under my watch at the [SEC] has resulted in the proliferation of markets, technologies and automation that brought about the flash crash and yesterday's [Knight Securities] events. I think public confidence is severely shaken by things of this kind."
Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the SEC Bloomberg Surveillance with Ken Pruitt and Tom Keen August 2, 2012
"I think many of our problems with market liquidity in small- and mid-caps can be traced right back to decimalization [tick sizes]," said Dennis Dick, prop trader at Bright Trading in Detroit. "Where decimalization has helped to reduce spreads in the large-cap space, it has actually harmed liquidity in the small- and mid-cap space."
For blocks, "it's nearly impossible to execute any sizable order without significant price impact," Dick said.
"SEC to Examine Tick Size for Small Caps" By John DAntona Jr. Traders Magazine Online News April 17, 2012
"Larry Tabb, chief executive of the Tabb Group, said dime spreads shouldn't be off the table and considered as well. This, he added, would incentivize brokers to trade and provide research for smaller and new companies. "[Professor James] Angel believes issuers, not the regulators, should decide what the spread should be in stocks. But if a company trades better with sub-penny pricing, 'then sub-penny should be permitted.'"
"Wider Spreads and Fees Could Help Restore Investor Confidence" By John DAntona Jr. Traders Magazine Online News June 1, 2012
- Cited by the U.S. Treasury - Cited by the SEC - Cited by The President's Jobs Council
November 2009 June 2010 October 2011
2008
Senator Kaufman speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate "How can we create a market structure that works for a $25
million IPOboth in the offering and the secondary aftermarket. If we can answer that question, this country will be back in business."
2009
Title I - Met with to interest Kate Mitchell who later Chaired the IPO Task Force for the US Treasury
2010
Title IV - House subcommittee on capital markets (testimony 3/16) President Obama cites IPO market problems cut away the red (9/8 speech) "Were also planning to rapidly growing tape that prevents too many
startup companies from raising capital and going public."
2011
2012
150 Hong Kong 100 Australia 50 Tokyo 0 Toronto Deutsche Brse London
(50)
United States
(100) '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Sources: Capital Markets Advisory Partners LLC and World Federation of Exchanges Based on the number of listed companies at year-end, excluding funds. Data as of Dec. 31, 2011.
700
600
A B C D E
500
F G H I
J
400
Christie-Schultz study* First online brokerage New Order Handling Rules Regulation ATS Online brokerage surges and stock bubble inflates; Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act Regulation FD Decimalization Sarbanes-Oxley Act Global Research Analyst Settlement Regulation NMS
300
200
100
0 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
A Pre-bubble
D E Bubble
J Post-bubble
Sources: Grant Thornton LLP, Capital Markets Advisory Partners LLC and Dealogic Data includes corporate IPOs as of December 31, 2011, excluding funds, REITs, SPACs and LPs *Christie, William G., and Schultz, Paul H., Why do NASDAQ Market Makers Avoid Odd-Eighth Quotes? Journal of Finance, Vol. 49, No. 5, 1994.
Small IPO collapsed with SEC changes to the economic model that paid for small-cap support.
Chapter 2 of the JOBS ActTitle 1, Section 106(b): Tick Sizes
Smaller tick sizes undermined U.S. small-company IPOs
100%
90%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
1 cent
10%
1/100th of 1 cent
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
0%
Sources: Grant Thornton LLP, Capital Markets Advisory Partners LLC and Dealogic Data includes corporate IPOs as of Dec. 31, 2011, excluding funds, REITs, SPACs and LPs.
Why do we care about IPOs? A vibrant IPO market improves private investment activity and M&A values.
Large-cap public (symmetrical order book) Small-cap public (asymmetrical order book) IPO (canary in the coal mine)
Angel | venture A
The JOBS Act focused on limiting cost for issuers and improving communications with investors. It has yet to address aftermarket support.
The "one-two punch The "one-two punch" of small tick sizes and the shift to electronic order book markets precipitated a secular decline in the U.S. stock markets Reg. ATS (1998)] [Order Handling Rules (1997) and
100% $0.30 90%
Quote-driven market (pre-Reg. ATS) Effective tick size > minimum tick size
Electronic order book market (post-Reg. ATS) Effective tick size collapsed to minimum tick size
$0.25
Transactions raising at least $50 million Transactions raising less than $50 million
80%
70% A B C D E Order Handling Rules Regulation ATS Decimalization Sarbanes-Oxley Act Regulation NMS $0.20
50%
$0.15
Tick sizes
"Bankable" spread or effective tick size Tick size for higher priced stocks1 Tick size for lower priced stocks2
60%
20% $0.05
10%
0% '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
$0.00
Sources: Grant Thornton LLP, Capital Markets Advisory Partners LLC and Dealogic Data includes corporate IPOs as of Dec. 31, 2011, excluding funds, REITs, SPACs and LPs. 11992: $0.125 for NASDAQ stocks $10, AMEX stocks $5 ( $10 in 1995) and NYSE stocks > $1; 1997: $0.0625 for NASDAQ stocks $10, AMEX stocks $0.25 and NYSE stocks $0.50. 21992: $0.03125 for NASDAQ stocks < $10, AMEX stocks < $0.25 and NYSE stocks < $0.50.
JOBS Act
SEC resources
Emerging Growth Companies (EGCs): Category defined IPO process reforms Reduced public company reporting requirements Research restrictions loosened Shareholder registration threshold raised for companies to 2000 "Held of record" definition revisedno deadline for SEC rulemaking Shareholder registration threshold raised for banksSEC rule due April 5, 2013
SEC authorized to increase trading in EGC stocks from one penny to nine cents Review of Reg. S-K to decrease EGC registration and reporting burden
No deadline
"Confidential filings" for IPOs becoming the norm. "Testing the waters" to become the norm for technologically complex businesses. Likely more parallel pathing of private placements and IPOs. Check with attorneys on "integration." Companies able to stay private longer and make more aggressive use of Rule 144A, Rule 506 of Reg. D and other private placement exemptions (shareholder cap increased from 500 to 2000).
Deadlines missed. Reg. D expected shortly. Definition of accredited investor Rules governing advertising Debate over what restrictions may be placed on advertising content to accredited investors and QIBs under Reg. D. Likely to see firms advertise (esp. funds) and solicit via email. Point of control shifted from solicitation to verifying that the investor is duly qualified. Reg. ABlue Sky may be an impediment. Lots of back channel discussion to ensue with stock exchanges and SEC (TBD).
Deadlines aggressivelikely to be missed by SEC. Please monitor. Increased tick sizes will increase support for small cap public companies, but needs to be extended well beyond simply EGCs. We recently spoke to the SEC Advisory Committee on Small and Emerging Companies. They are taking this seriously.
SEC report to Congress on the impact of Decimalization on capital formation concluded that they needed to study the issue further.
Grant Thornton LLP. All rights reserved.
Deadlines aggressivelikely to be missed by SEC. Please monitor. Limited to $1 million. Regulation not yet settledlikely to go to FINRA. Broker/dealers and crowdfunding portals prohibited from acting until SEC gives approval. Likely to be used to satisfy 400 shareholder requirements on IPOs (TBD)!
No deadline
"Reg. A+" Needs to be fleshed out. Currently in discussions with one stock exchange and a known tech securities law firm on providing some advice to SEC. Hoping for a construct (no guarantees) that: Limits Blue Sky Provides streamlined disclosure Provides and exchange listing Advantage: investors receive tradable securities.
IPOs that are trading at or above issue price 30 days after pricing
(Trailing 30 IPOs)
Success rate of IPOs maintaining issue price one month after going public
100%
FaceBook
Not an anomaly Unintentional Underlying causes
Deteriorating coverage of investors Unreliable feedback Poor placement
90%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
Source: Capital Markets Advisory Partners LLC, All rights reserved Includes only corporate issuers, excluding funds, MLPs, SPACs and REITs. Based on the average success rate of the last 30 filed deals, up to one month ago. A successful deal is defined as trading at or above issue price one month after pricing.
Increased economic incentives (e.g., tick sizes) are the third leg of the stool
Lowered cost for issuers Improve economic incentives to support especially small-cap stocks (increases in tick sizes)
Small-capitalization companies and capital formation Before 1997 Tick sizes Investment banks (acting as a bookrunner) Small company IPOs $0.25 per share 167 (1994) 2,990 (1991-1997) After 2001 $0.01 per share 39 (2006) 233 (2001-2007) % change -96% -77% -92%
+18.8 million jobs (direct plus private market effect) +9.4 million jobs (direct)
20
1,000
+6.2 million jobs (direct plus private market effect) +3.1 million jobs (direct)
800 15
Maximum additional jobs (direct plus private market effect)* Maximum additional jobs (direct) Maximum additional IPOs Minimum additional jobs (direct plus private market effect)* Minimum additional jobs (direct)
600 10
400 5 200
Additional jobs
Millions
0
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 *Best estimate of the multiplier effect in the private market of more companies going public
Sources: Grant Thornton LLP, Dealogic and the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Domestic corporate companies going public in the U.S. as of Dec. 31, 2011, excluding funds, REITs and other trusts, SPACs and LPs. Assumes an annual growth rate of 2.57% (U.S. real GDP growth, 1991-2011) and 822 jobs created on average post-IPO (see "Post-IPO Employment and Revenue Growth for U.S. IPOs," Kauffman Foundation). Grant Thornton LLP. All rights reserved.
David Weild
david.weild@us.gt.com david.weild@cmapartners.com 212-542-9979
Grant Thornton LLP All rights reserved U.S. member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd This presentation is the work of Grant Thornton LLP, the U.S. member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd, and is in all respects subject to negotiation, agreement and signing of specific contracts. The information contained within this document is intended only for the entity or person to which it is addressed and contains confidential and/or proprietary material. Dissemination to third-parties, copying or use of this information is strictly prohibited without the prior written consent of Grant Thornton LLP.
While 81% of all public companies are sub-$2 billion in market value
Percentage of total number of listed companies 100%
80%
60%
52.0%
40%
20%
15.6%
13.5%
12.5% 6.4%
0%
Sources: Grant Thornton LLP and Capital IQ Includes NASDAQ, NYSE (including AMEX) and OTC listings. Corporate issuers only, excluding holding companies, funds, MLPs, SPACs, REITs and other trusts.
sub-$2 billion companies represent less than 7% of total public company market value
Percentage of total public company market value 100%
80%
74.3%
60%
40%
19.1%
20%
5.0% 0.3%
0%
1.3% Micro-cap ($100 to $500 million) Small-cap ($500+ to $2 billion) Mid-cap ($2+ billion to $10 billion) Large-cap ($10+ billion)
Sources: Grant Thornton LLP and Capital IQ Includes NASDAQ, NYSE (including AMEX) and OTC listings. Corporate issuers only, excluding holding companies, funds, MLPs, SPACs, REITs and other trusts.