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US$565.3 US$367.9
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 F1992 F1995 F1998 F2001 F2004 F2007 F2010E Cash to Total Capital Employed (RS)
2005
2010
2015
2 0 10
#5
#8
#25
R e v e nue o f B S E 2 0 0 C o m pa nie s ( US $ B n)
China
1% 28%
3%
Source: Factset.
Internationalization of Revenue
India is expected to edge out China in terms of number of new multinationals. Indias largest corporate houses already derive a large part of their revenue from beyond the borders.
FDI Inflow & Outflow Trends (In US$ Bn)
3.0 7.6 20.3 25.5 41.3 34.7 24.5 0.0 FDI Inflow 20.0 FDI Outflow 40.0 60.0
2006
14.3 17.3
20%
China
2008
18.4 14.0
2010
40.0
13.2 20.0
1 0%
1 5%
20%
25%
0% 0%
Growth in Average Amount of New M ultinatinals Between the Base (20052009) and Projection Periods (20102024)
FDI inflow in India from FY2001 till now is led by Mauritius (42%), followed by Singapore (9%), USA (7%) & UK (5%)
Source: EIU
India is expected to edges out China in terms of number of new multinationals, despite slower forecast growth
Source: PWC
10.7
CY05
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
Indias largest corporate houses like the Tatas and Birlas already derive a large part of their revenue from beyond the borders Companies are using acquistion route to expand overseas Drivers for Indian Corporates going abroad include Diversifying the revenue base and lowering risks Regulatory hurdles back home Absence of good acquisition opportunities at home in feed stocks like coal and iron ore
Rcomm
Hindalco
Sun Pharma
Dr Reddy's
Tata Motors
Tata Steel
Bharat Forge
Bharti Airtel
M&M
L&T
Growth Rates
(%)
CAGR
(%) 6,239 15 15
2,278 539
US$ 16 bn 12 4 12 9
US$ 3540 bn 15 4 13 12
17
22 19 19 25 6 18 Fees Trade Finance Credit 2,539 249
857 1,434 FY10 FY16 3,422
19 13 31 2010
11 13 32 2015
19
19
Wholesale Banking wallet includes local revenue from domestic Large Corporates, Global Subsidiaries and Mid Market enterprises
69
67
Mutual Funds
Low Penetration of Mutual Fund in India
67%
21%
AUM as % of GDP
550
30%
2006
2007 Loan
2010
US
Brazil
S. Africa
S. Korea
India
AUM Growth
(US$ in Billions) CAGR: 32.3%
143 90 105
158
169
159
144
146
107 49 69
32
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Dec-08
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-09
Sep-09
Jun-10
2006
2007
2009
2010
Indian banks have weathered the Global Credit crisis well. There was no direct exposure to sub-prime assets Witnessed a healthy growth during the last few years, propelled by strong economic fundamentals Large NBFI are mostly government promoted and have sector specific focus such as housing, small scale industries etc.
India represents a very large and underpenetrated market Mutual fund AUMs as a % to household financial savings represent only ~7.7% Every 1% increase in AUM penetration will lead to an increase of US$ 9 bn in AUMs
Source: RBI, EIU. (1) Does not include assets/loans/deposits of co-operative banks. 1
Aug-10
83
22 0506
17
16 0708
20
16 0910
0102 Top 5
51.90
58.90
55.20
Option 39%
73.70
64.50
63.00
48.10
41.10 FY09
44.80
FY05
FY06
FY07 LIC
FY08 Private
FY10
Growth in per capita income, low penetration levels will drive high growth in insurance sector Private players will add to high rates of growth Recent slowdown in growth due to lacklustre ULIP sales is a area of concern
The brokerage industry in India continues to remain fragmented Brokerage yields have declined to 56bps (among the lowest globally) from 78bps a few years ago due to higher competition and larger proportion of option trading volume Cash segment has higher average broking yield of 1012bps as compared to that of 3-5 bps for derivative segment and 12bps in options
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: McKinsey
2015
19,274
6,277
2,060
14,803 28%
50% 71%
60%
40%
Ports Lending
Others
Project Lifecycle
Inception Completion
Nll Upfront Fee Operating Costs Risk Costs PBT Lending DCM ECM Transaction Banking Equity Fund Management PBT Overall Tax PAT 0
Source: Mckinsey.
225 22 45 40 162 18 5 104 30 319 72 247 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Operational
3 years CLP ECA GTS Flows FX Flows HFS Position Refinancing: Bond/ Capital Market Exit: IPO Episodic Opportunities 12 years
Basis Points