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MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500
Week Open
13092.15 3063.25 813.17 1406.54
Thurs. Close
13292 3135.81 837.95 1432.12
Change
199.85 72.56 24.78 25.58
% Change
1.53% 2.37% 3.05% 1.82%
YTD
8.79% 20.37% 13.10% 13.88%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities
Change
1.83% 2.44% 1.90% 0.82% 1.41% 1.54% 1.34% 1.13% 1.15% 1.35% 1.25% 1.77% 1.02% 1.69% 1.17% 1.32%
MTD
1.53% 1.80% 2.29% 1.70% 1.46% 1.92% 1.44% 1.37% 3.13% 1.40% 2.27% 1.39% 0.62% 2.35% 1.15% 1.69%
YTD
4.92% 5.54% 2.27% 8.58% 9.23% 89.34% 14.20% 15.33% 25.88% 7.63% 20.15% 11.06% -7.15% 15.41% 7.59% 1.73%
Valuation
3.15% undervalued 7.01% undervalued 0.82% overvalued 2.11% overvalued 6.27% overvalued 3.63% overvalued 5.08% overvalued 10.67% overvalued 10.25% overvalued 0.66% overvalued 10.88% overvalued 4.03% undervalued 1.43% undervalued 10.60% overvalued 3.77% undervalued 15.50% overvalued
Last 12MReturn
2.79% 4.64% -26.92% 11.34% 3.09% 21.87% 7.88% 8.45% 14.23% 1.11% 5.84% 11.02% -12.46% 20.17% -3.01% 4.27%
P/E Ratio
18.22 16.64 24.67 28.48 42.59 43.5 33.96 20.68 18.55 19.1 44.39 14.1 32.6 21.42 32.41 19.43
Sector TalkFinance
Below, we present the latest data on leading Finance Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Name
CITIZENS BKNG HOMEOWNERS CHCE BANNER CORP WILSHIRE BCP ALTISOURCE PORT
Mkt Price
20.45 20.89 25 6.49 87.72
Valuation(%)
-34.12 18.82 -66.89 -31.5 20.05
Name
CITIZENS BKNG HOMEOWNERS CHCE ALTISOURCE PORT GLOBAL CASH ACS BANNER CORP
Mkt Price
20.45 20.89 87.72 7.7 25
Valuation(%)
-34.12 18.82 20.05 0.12 -66.89
Name
AMER INTL GRP MBIA INC REGIONS FINL CP KEYCORP NEW AEGON N V
Mkt Price
34.22 11.18 7.22 8.51 5.4
Valuation(%)
-75 -44.33 -39.82 -39.29 -30.21
Name
RESOURCE CAPITL TRUSTCO BK -NY MONMOUTH RE CLA FRANKLIN ST PPT BANK MUTUAL CRP
Mkt Price
6.1 5.7 11.5 11.36 4.33
Valuation(%)
300 300 300 300 300
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Despite this improvement, we are nowhere near normal conditions. Troubled assets and the number of problem banks remain high. The FDIC has significantly slowed bank failure procedures. Year-to-date, there have been 40 failures--versus 68 failures year to date in 2011. Only fifteen banks were seized in the second quarter-- the lowest number since the fourth quarter of 2008. The table below tracks bank ratings and the number of problems bank back to Q2 2009. As you can see, while overall totals varied slightly, on a percentage basis the proportion of problem banks--publicly traded FDIC insured financial institutions overexposed to Construction & Development Loans and/or Nonfarm nonresidential real estate loans, with 1-Engine--Strong Sell, or 2-EngineSell--was fairly consistent on a quarterly basis from 2009-2011. While the percentage of problem banks was falling slightly from Q2 2009-Q2 2011, more than half were in danger of failure.
Q2 2009
TOTAL BANKS STRONG SELL % SELL % HOLD % BUY % STRONG BUY % PROBLEM BANKS %
212 31.13 30.66 37.26 0.47 0.47 61.79
Q2 2010
260 25.00 34.23 34.23 5.00 1.15 59.23
Q2 2011
216 19.44 36.57 42.13 1.85 0.00 56.02
Q2 2012
298 12.75 7.05 39.60 31.54 7.05 19.80
However, since last year there has been a radical re-ordering of the picture. For Q2 2012, the FDIC Report shows a big improvement in VE Ratings for banks. Whilemany of our tracked banks remain overexposed to C&D or CRE loans and may have maxed out pipelines, less than 20% of them are now rated as "problem banks" and almost 39% of them are rated a BUY or STRONG BUY. Our latest ValuEngine FDIC Report is now posted. The report contains loan exposure and/or ValuEngine datapoints on valuation, forecast, and ratings for all of the institutions on our List of Problem Banks. Subscribers may download it HERE. Others interested in the report may find out more on our website by clicking the image to the right
Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--((1.671) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 1.853, 1.869 and 2.502 with weekly and monthly pivots at 1.645 and 1.620, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.567 and 1.389. Comex Gold ($1703.7) Semiannual, and annual value levels are $1643.3 and $1575.8 with weekly, daily and semiannual pivots at $1683.3, $1694.6 and $1702.5, and quarterly risky level at $1805.8. Below is my second annual risky level at $1388.4. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $1635.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($94.81) Monthly and semiannual value levels are $93.30 and $76.71 with a daily pivot at $94.87, and weekly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $102.06, $103.58 and $107.63. The 200-day simple moving average is $96.62. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at $92.92. The Euro (1.2634) My weekly value level is 1.2460 with a daily pivot at 1.2609 and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.2714 and 1.2917. My semiannual value level lags at 1.1078. The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 1.2441. Major Indices Daily Dow:(13,292) Daily, annual and semiannual value levels are 13,085, 12,312 and 10,738 with weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 13,360, 13,666, 14,032 and 14,493. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 13,047.
S&P 500 (1432.1) Daily and annual value levels are 1413.1 and 1363.2 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 1433.0 and 1486.7. My semiannual value level is 1059.7. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 1391.2. NASDAQ (3136) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 3100, 3076, 2698 and 2527 with annual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 3232, 3340 and 3348. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 3007. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2830) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2794, 2799, 2603, 2300 and 2239 with quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2991 and 3033. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 2707. Dow Transports (5045) Daily and semiannual value levels are 4934, 4449 and 4129 with a weekly pivot at 4994, and my monthly risky level at 5279. The weekly chart profile stays negative on a weekly close below the fiveweek modified moving average at 5101. The all time high is 5627.85 set on July 7, 2011. Russell 2000 (837.93) Daily, weekly and semiannual value levels are 831.37, 814.70, 799.93 and 686.25 with my annual pivot at 836.15, and my monthly risky level at 864.06. The weekly chart profile stays positive with a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 802.46. The all time high is 868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The SOX (404.53) My daily value level is 394.59 with a weekly pivot at 401.46, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 438.90 and 450.28. The weekly chart profile stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 391.48.