Intuition An Identification of Patterns

The decision making often termed as multi stage process that begins by defining the problem, then generating different alternatives, evaluation of those alternatives and then selection of one particular choice and its implementation. But many decisions cant be tailored through stage model of decision making, mainly because of the nature of the situation are not always the same. So the process may not necessarily move in linear fashion. Apart from the nature of the problem many people often tends to use intuition rather than formal process of decision making. They dont generally evaluate and analyze different options, they seems to assess a situation and comes to a solution without using comparative analysis of alternatives. There is something that is present in all business decisions, but that is little discussed and perhaps poorly understood. It is intuition, founded upon a solid and complete grasp of the details of the business and experience in relating with people. An Entrepreneur Famous English Poet Robert Graves says that, Intuition is the supra-logic that cuts out all the routine processes of thought and leaps straight from the problem to the answer. So, business analyst would want to know how this intuition works. That is what goes inside the mind as we use intuition. The gut feeling through sixth sense, we all seems to feel it but what precisely does it mean? How these intuitive processes work? Is it some kind of telepathy or super natural power? And the most important question of all will be that can we actually grasp, harness and enhance our intuition? People have the feeling that it just happens and we cant improve it as it simply the instincts that we possess. But now researcher are saying that if we can understand the process inside the mind then perhaps we can harness it and improve it with time. And we might even be able to teach people how to refine their intuition, and also we can help people share their intuition with others. In 1985 a research If something doesnt feel right psychologist Gary Klein famous for pioneering in the field of naturalistic it probably isnt. decision making set out to study how fire Listen to your Intuition fighters make life or death decisions. And in the process he learns unexpectedly about the intuitive process. In his very first interview he asked a fire commander to describe a very challenging situation in which he was involved. The Commander said that ESP plays a critical factor in making a good

choice. That is the Extra Sensory perception, the commander explained how he once arrived a seen where seemingly a small and straight forward kitchen fire went beyond his control. His men begin spraying water at the fire from the living room but the fire just roared back at them. After a few repeated attempts the commander was puzzled why water wasnt is effective in fighting with fire? Then his sixth sense kicked in, according to the commander. And he became very concerned, he immediately ordered his men to come out of the house, despite no one actually knowing why his alarm bell was going off in his head. Soon after the living room floor collapsed, and if the fire fighters would have remained in the house then they could have been seriously injured or even killed. So Klein asked probing questions that what commander was thinking at the time of the fire. The commander recalls that he was surprised that water virtually had no impact on the fire. He was puzzled because of the enormous heat that he felt in the living room, because a small kitchen fire should not have emitted that much heat. Meanwhile he felt very little Intuition doesnt come to an noise while standing in the living room unprepared mind (Albert which was odd for him as well, given Einstein) that hot fire such as that one should have been rather noisy. As it turned out the floor collapsed because the main fire was located in the basement and not in the kitchen directly beneath where he had been standing. That basically explains the ineffectiveness of the water, intense heat and low noise level; the commander did not know that at the time. But he did know that the situation didnt quite feel right, his intuition helped him detect a serious problem. Klein explains his interpretation of the commander thought process, He said that the whole pattern did not quite fit right and that commanders expectations were violated and he realized that he could not quite know what is going on. And that is why he ordered his men out of building. The commanders experience has provided him with a firm set of patterns, he was accustomed to sizing up a situation by having it match with one of those patterns, he may not been able to articulate the patterns or describe their features but he was relying on the pattern matching process to let him feel comfortable that he had the situation scoped out. Overtime Klein study variety of decision making in other fields, he look at pilots, military leaders and nurses and concluded that intuition plays a powerful role in the way that experts size up a situation and make decisions. According to Klein intuition is fundamentally a pattern recognition process.

So, lets have a look at major stages and phases of intuition process but one thing must be kept in mind that it all happening rather instantaneously. This is not a phase model which proceeds over hours or days, this is something that we are not really even aware of, yet researchers have dig out some of the key steps, some of the key phases of thinking which is going on at that time inside of the mind. Intuition is fundamentally about pattern recognition and about pattern matching based on our past experience. When we use our intuition we do not evaluate the whole series of alternatives as many decision making models suggest that we should. In fact basic proposition of decision making is to generate lots of options and alternatives, and comparing and contrasting those alternatives. Of course in larger organization you should generate a lot of options and compare and contrast them, but as an individual making decisions when someone rely on his instincts, thats simply isnt what many people do. Instead we assess a situation and spot out certain cues, certain things in the environment in the circumstance that began to trigger our thinking and from those cues we recognize patterns based on our past experience. We seem to match that current situation through those past patterns. Something in our body of expertise in our body of experience that looks like current situation or looks quite different but somehow has trigger us to begin a comparison useful to us. As part of pattern matching we often reasoned by analogy of past situation something which is quite similar to one that we are facing. Based on that pattern recognition we then embark our course of action. We adopt certain scripts from our past experience. We say look this happen to work in the past and this situation is looking quite similar to that one, so we will adopt that s ort of action and that script that work in the past and will use them here. But of course if we look at the situation and say that this does look like a past circumstance and that sort of action doesnt work in past circumstance then we might say that sort of action we should reject this time around. So we dont explore wide range of options but instead we tend to mentally stimulate our initial preferred action. We envision how it might play out, if it seems feasible we go with it if not if for some reason our mind feels uncomfortable then and only then we might explore other options. Thats how the process of intuition seems to work. So lets go back to our fire fighter again to understand how this process works in a real example. Klein argues that Intuition gradually develops as someone becomes to develop deep expertise in his specific field. As an individual encounters more and more situations, he develops some of the more sophisticated ability to identify, recognize and match patterns. In other words that we are not always aware of it, the mind is constantly hunting for patterns in the entire situation that we encounters and it uses pattern matching to spot problems and guide us to solutions. And by looking at fire commander in that example we see that he could not match the kitchen fire with the patterns from his past experience. He had seen many kitchen fires in the past and based on experience he expected to see certain patterns in terms of the noise level, the heat and the way that the water affects the fire. However

in this case the cues that he observed in his environment in that house did not match those patterns. Thus his intuition told him that he was not experiencing a simple contained kitchen fire. He could not rely on the actions, the scripts that he was used to using quite often automatically and instinctively in such circumstance. So the lack of a pattern match let him to conclude that he might be facing a much more serious problem then been first envisioned. He knew he wasnt facing a simple kitchen fire. It caused him to opt for a different solution then one he normally chosen automatically in a normal kitchen fire. So we see that pattern matching doesnt mean simply doing what work in the past , sometimes pattern matching and the identification of a mismatch enable us to reject certain set of actions or reject a script that did worked in the past because we understand in our mind that we are actually facing a rather unique situation. Gary Klein and others study people of other field, and in a research about Chess sensation Zsuzsa Polgar, researchers came to know how exactly this Intuitive instinct works.

Zsuzsa Polgr was the first woman in the world to earn the Grandmaster title in chess. She was also the Women's World Chess champion from 1996-1999. As it is assumed that the game of chess is all about mental ability and luck do not play any part, it is said that woman cant beat man because there size of brain is smaller than men. But one woman was keen to prove this assumption wrong. Susans father used to take her to different game zones at the very early age. And at the age of 10, when most 10 years old know only about 10,000 words at the same age Susan was devoting for learning 100,000 chess chunks. This process physically transformed her brain, and with constant repetition, information moves from working memory into long term memory. As working memory only last for seconds until the electrical connections between neurons die away but in long term memory the repetition of these currents stimulates the neurons to form new and permanent connections. The memorized information becomes hard wired and can last a life time. And like anyone else, Susan long term memory is a store house of family faces and life time experiences but now chess chunks also indelibly printed on her brain. And at 15 Susan was already the top ranked female player of the world and at the 1985 New York open she caused a sensation by beating a grandmaster for the first time. It is assumed that she makes moves as easily as taking a breath, and there seems to be a line direct from the brain to the end of the finger. But it should be beyond the power of a human brain to pick the best move in a chess game. There are roughly four billion possibilities for the next three moves alone. That a calculation only a super computer could perform. So, how can Susan move at this incredible speed? The only explanation is that her human brain is using her very human skill.

"Trust your instincts. Intuition doesnt lie."

Intuition sounds more like magic than science. But researcher believes that it is specific skill display by experts in all fields and it can be explained. If you have done something often enough you do not have to think about how to do it. But even more important thing is that, if you have done something often enough you know and you sense what the result of it is going to be and you are ready with the next move. So intuition is turned out to be a learned skill, it means trusting your experience and ability to recognize and react to familiar patterns. And rather surprising that it may seem chess player relies more heavily on intuition than calculation. You dont calculate from where you are, you dont look at the list of possibilities, says former British chess champion. Susan says, she has to trust her instincts, her intuition and its basically pattern recognition. And its instincts which tells her what her best move is, and its almost like guessing. But its like guessing intelligently, basing it on prior games and experience. It pattern recognition that separates the best from the rest. And Susan is so good at it that it is possible that her brain has a dedicated pattern processor and with modern scanning techniques it might even be possible to identify it. But the brain is so complex that to find and identify any specific structure is a daunting task. Well to recognize human we have met before it takes approximately 100 milliseconds, and as every brain has a face recognition processor to help us make sense of daily see of faces, but there are many complex patterns in the world around us. Does the brain have processors for those? In order to see how Susan brain is perfectly adopted for the game of chess, Professor Dr. Joy Hirsch (leading expert in brain imaging techniques) from the Neurological Institute of Columbia University did MRI (Magnetic residence imaging) of her brain. And the results were astonishing; the face recognition processor of Susan brain is not only working for face recognition but also for chess patterns. Astonishingly Susan face recognition area has been high jacked for adopting to chess, and instead of faces only its the vast library of game in her brain is in process. And it is assumed that Susan can recognize a familiar game in 0.8 seconds, almost as fast as recognizing the face of an old friend. So, years of intense childhood training literally change Susan brain for the game of chess. By looking at the above explanation it seems that intuition is all about benefits but of course there are some dangers associates with it as well. Some research also shows that we misuse analogies; we also often dont make the right match to past situations in our experience. And in highly complex and ambiguous situations, sometimes the complexity is so much that its difficult to understand the patterns. Following the rules of thumb is another problem, and we often dont question those rules of thumb that whether they still apply or not. And it is also very hard to communicate our intuitive judgments and choices, as it is hard to persuade others to commit to out intuitive decisions. Or even make them understand how and why we made that choice, thus sometimes intuitive process can be counterproductive in our ability to make decisions implemented with a broader team or organization. It is important to effectively

communicate our intuition, often when a leader uses intuition, people misinterpret the leaders intent and therefore implementation goes astray. As the people of the operation will then have to use there on judgment and skills in line with the original decision by the leader. Therefore feedback is important so leader must not only communicate his decision effectively but he must also take there feedbacks to know what exactly they have understood. So the best decision makers are those who combine analysis and intuition. And analysis and intuition must be compatible with one another and must go hand in hand.

References: Gary Klein Book - The Power of Intuition: How to Use Your Gut Feelings to Make Better Decisions
Susan Polgar Analysis by National Geographic Team of Experts (My Brilliant Brain) Michael Roberto Art of Decision Making

Introduction of the Writer:

Dear Sir,
I am Associate member of Institute of Cost & Management Accountants of Pakistan, and working as a Management Accountant in a Textile Company. I also hold masters degree in the field of Economics from University of Karachi. As a Management Accountant I have decided to explore the field of Strategic Management. I want to know what exactly can be done on internal level to improve certain skills and abilities. As the resources and capital can vary from person to person and country to country, one thing which is almost similar in everybody is our inner abilities and skills. By giving such weeping statements that others have more resources and distinct competencies, we often overlook our own abilities and skills. Anyway the attached article is based on same assumption. I would like to see this article published and I will be thankful to you if you give feedback on it. As it will boast my morale, and will help me to write more of such articles. From : Umair Kamran B.Com, MA (Economics), ACMA (A- 5035) Management Accountant Sierra Textiles & Fabrics Pvt Ltd. Email: umair_acma@yahoo.com, Cell # 0333-3007792

Umair Kamran

Gary Klein

Susan Polgar