Yamashita - IDEC PDF

Joint Research Workshop : Long-term Terrestrial Carbon Budget Estimation September 17, 2012@IPB
1
Climate Changes and Forests
by
Takao Yamashita
IDEC, Hiroshima University
2
CONTENTS
Climate Change
Climate Extremes
Precipitation in Indonesia
Global CO2 budget
Mitigation through forest preservation
3
Climate Change and Forests
Climate change and forests are intrinsically linked.
Better forest management has key role to play in dealing with
climate change.
Stressing forests :
Higher mean annual temperatures,
Altered precipitation patterns
Extreme weather events.
When destroyed or over-harvested and burned, forests can
become sources of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide.
Carbon Neutral
We need to stop deforestation and expand forests.
We also need to substitute fossil fuels with biofuel.
4
Climate System
5
Earths annual and global mean energy balance
1J=1N1m
W/m
2
= J/s/m
2
Earth:15: 273+15=288K
) (W/m 10 67 . 5
2 4 8
T W =

Sun:6000K
6
Vertical circulation of the atmosphere
due to heat transfer towards the North and South poles
ITCZ
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_circulation
Absorbed
Short-wave
Radiation
Outgoing
Long-wave
Radiation
H
L
L
Hadley Cell
Ferrel Cell
Polar
Cell
235 [W/m
2
]
7
Ocean Circulation
8
Robert Simmon, NASA. public domain
Practical Salinity Scale
periods10002000yrs
Thermohaline Circulation
9
Causes of Climate Change
GHG: Global Warming
LULCCF: Forest Degradation
Volcanic Eruption
Changes in Solar Activities
ENSO, PDO, NAO: Climate Variability
10
W
/
m
2
11
Carbone Budget in 1990s
(IPCC, 2007)
Atmospher
Deep sea
37200
Ocean surface
918
Marine ecosystem
Fossil fuel
Land use change
Land surface
2300
2.2 1.0
0.6
6.4
0.6
Seabed
150
12
Forest Area
13
Solar Activities
17002000
Ise Bay typhoon 1959
Solar cycle
Changes in number of
Sun spot
period: 11year
Energy reduction
Maunder Minimum Dalton Minimum

1700
1800 1900
2000
14
National Astronomical Observatory
Quadrupole Structure
15
Solar activity has periodically repeat a period of maximum and
minimum period, the current activity cycle prolonged than
expected, about 11-year period has been 12.6 years.
Including the results of the observation of this magnetic field,
these incident solar activity, the earth became cold season
"Maunder Minimum" and (circa 1645-1715) period
"Dalton Minimum" in (circa 1790-1820)
similar to that.
17th and 18th centuries in the Northern Hemisphere average
temperature drops 0.6 degrees
16
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 3595-3617, 2012
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/3595/2012/
doi:10.5194/acpd-12-3595-2012 Author(s) 2012.
Effects of cosmic ray decreases on cloud microphysics
J. Svensmark, M. B. Enghoff, and H. Svensmark
National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
Abstract
Using cloud data from MODIS we investigate the response of cloud microphysics to
sudden decreases in galactic cosmic radiation Forbush decreases and find
responses in effective emissivity, cloud fraction, liquid water content, and optical
thickness above the 23 sigma level 69 days after the minimum in atmospheric
ionization and less significant responses for effective radius and cloud
condensation nuclei (<2 sigma). The magnitude of the signals agree with derived
values, based on simple equations for atmospheric parameters. Furthermore
principal components analysis gives a total significance of the signal of 3.1 sigma.
We also see a correlation between total solar irradiance and strong Forbush
decreases but a clear mechanism connecting this to cloud properties is lacking.
There is no signal in the UV radiation. The responses of the parameters correlate
linearly with the reduction in the cosmic ray ionization. These results support the
suggestion that ions play a significant role in the life-cycle of clouds.
Svensmark Effects
17
18
Global Warming in 20
th
Century
Negative NAO
Cool phase
Negative NAO
Cool phase
Global Mean Surface Temp.Observation
1860-2002
19
ENSO
El Nino - Southern Oscillation
Short-term
oscillation
Atmosphere-Ocean Oscillation
20
Climate Variability
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)
El Nino dominant
La Nina dominant
ENSO Index (MEI)
1977
21
Land areas are flagged in green, and
typically noisy regions with no coherent structures and/or lack of data are shown in grey.
Each field is denoted by a single capitalized letter and
the explained variance for the same field in the Australian corner.
The six loading fields
correlations between the local anomalies and the MEI time series
22
Consistent with strong La Nia conditions, there are quite a few observed key anomalies
in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma
(compare to loadings figure), with all of them flagging La Nia conditions, and higher
anomalies in many cases than last month.
westerly wind anomalies (U) over Indonesia
southerly wind anomalies (V) north of New Guinea
high sea level pressure (P) from Tahiti to Galapagos
positive temperature anomalies (S and A) west of Hawaii
increased cloudiness (C)
over Indonesia Philippines
23
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
warm phase cool phase
Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction
Long-term
oscillation
http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
24
Warm Phase
of
PDO
SST
Sea Surface
Temperature
SLP
Sea Level
Pressure
Aleutian low
Warm ocean
20-40 years
oscillation
25
warm phase(El Nino)
cool phase(La Nina)
1944 1977
IPCC, AR4
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
26

year
i
n
t
e
n
s
i
t
y
2000 2030
2060 2090
North West Pacific average
World Average
(Exponential change)
Storms
Wet
Wet
Wet
Positive
NAO Index
Negative
NAO Index
Global
Warming
Climate
Fluctuatio
n
For Adaptation
TrendClimate VariabilityFluctuation
Climate
Variability PDO
NAO
Atmospheric
Tele-connection
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
27
PDO, NAO
Coupling with Nitrogen
Aerosols
Sea Level Rise
RES
28
New process of Scenarios for IPCC AR5
aims to ensure better integration between
socio-economic driving forces, changes in the climate system, and the
vulnerability of natural and human systems.
Rather than starting with socio-economic scenarios that give rise to alternative
greenhouse gas emissions,
the new scenarios take alternative futures in global greenhouse gas and aerosol
concentrations as their starting point.
These so-called
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
can be used in parallel:
by Earth System Models (ESMs) to explore future changes in physical and
biogeochemical responses to changing atmospheric composition and radiative
forcing, and
by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore alternative socio-economic
conditions that would result in such future atmospheric composition changes.
29
SCENARIO PROCESS FOR AR5
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/index.html
30
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/RCPs.html
Radiative Forcing of
the Representative
Concentration
Pathways.
From van Vuuren et al (2011)
The Representative Concentration
Pathways: An Overview. Climatic
Change, 109 (1-2), 5-31. .
Four RCPs were selected and
defined by their total radiative
forcing (cumulative measure of
human emissions of GHGs from
all sources expressed in Watts
per square meter) pathway and
level by 2100.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
31
The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) is
the scientific community organization that coordinated the review and release of the
four RCPs and is coordinating additional modeling exercises and intercomparisons.
The Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is using
the RCPs in their 5th intercomparison exercise. The web site details the climate
model protocol for this project.
32
IMAGE 2.4
IMAGE is an ecological-environmental
framework that simulates the environmental
consequences of human activities
worldwide.
It represents interactions between society,
the biosphere and the climate system to
assess sustainability issues like climate
change, biodiversity and human well-being.
The objective of the version of IMAGE
described here (version 2.4 released in
2006) is to explore the long-term dynamics
of global change as the result of interacting
demographic, technological, economic,
social, cultural and political factors.
33
1995
2001
2007
1990
GCM
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Mega Disasters
"Mega Drought
Trends indicate that a major drought event is looming in the not-too-distant future.
In as few as three decades we could experience conditions that would make the
Dust Bowl of the 1930s seem like an oasis.
Efforts to conserve, while admirable and desperately necessary, may already be
too late.
The episode projects a scenario seventy years into the future in which a twelve-
year drought leaves the United States unstable and economically depressed.
Western cities are abandoned, states clash for dwindling water supplies and
society devolves into a battle for survival.
41
42
43
"Glacier Meltdown"
As temperatures rise, a global meltdown has begun.
From the Andes to the Himalayas to the Alps, glaciers are vanishing. In
Antarctica and Greenland, vast ice sheets are turning into liquid.
The melting ice, running off land, is raising sea levels.
As sea levels rise, oceans throughout the world are also becoming hotter.
Warmer seas fuel more intense hurricanes.
Already, major catastrophes brought on by the process of melting ice, rising
seas and intensifying storms have occurred in coastal communities around
the world: the South Pacific, Bangladesh andcloser to homeNew Orleans.
Scientists predict that the worst is yet to come.
The rising oceans may swallow some lands forever.
By the turn of the century, the map of the world may need to be redrawn and a
Category 4 hurricane could drown much of Washington, D.C. in 15 feet of water.
44
Extent of surface melt over Greenlands ice sheet
on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right).
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or
near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet
surface had thawed by July 12.
45
Hypercane
A hypothetical class of extreme hurricane that could form if ocean temperatures
reached around 50, which is 15 warmer than the warmest ocean
temperature ever recorded.
In order to form a hypercane, according to Emanuels hypothetical model, the
ocean temperature would have to be 48.
Hypercanes would have wind speeds of over 800 km/h equalling an original Fujita
scale rating number of F9.0, and would also have a central pressure of less than
700hPa, giving them an enormous lifespan.
Storm surges of 18 m and an eye nearly 300 km across.
A hypercane's clouds would reach 30 km into the stratosphere.
Such an intense storm would also damage the Earth's ozone.
Water molecules in the stratosphere would react with ozone to accelerate
decay into O
2
and reduce absorption of ultraviolet light.
For comparison, the largest and most intense storm on record was 1979's
Typhoon Tip, with a wind speed of 305 kilometres per hour and central pressure
of 870 hPa.
46
47
Map of the cumulative tracks of all tropical cyclones during the 19852005 time period.
The Pacific Ocean west of the International Date Line sees more tropical cyclones than any
other basin, while there is almost no activity in the Atlantic Ocean south of the Equator.
48
Global tropical cyclone rainfall in 2005
49
Atmosphere
Hydrology
Land Surface &

Dynamic Vegetation
C
o
a
s
t
a
l

D
y
n
a
m
i
c
s
Estuary
AES
Asian
Environment
Simulator
Ocean & Waves

Asian Environment
Regional Simulator
Global
Simulation
System
Earth
Observation
System
monitoring simulation
RES
50
51
Ocean States
surge, waves, currents
heat & vapor exchange
Ocean States
surge, waves, currents
heat & vapor exchange
Rain fall runoff
River flow
Rain fall runoff
River flow
MM5
SOLVEG
SOLVEG
RIVERS
MM5
WW3
WW3
POM
MM5
POM
interaction
data exchange
Ocean
POM
MIT
Model Model
coupler coupler
Meteorology
MM5
HYDROLOGY
HSPF
Waves
WW3
LAND
SURFACE
SOLVEG
Ocean
POM
MIT
Model Model
coupler coupler
Meteorology
MM5
HYDROLOGY
HSPF
Waves
WW3
LAND
SURFACE
SOLVEG
Estuary
Coast
Coastal Problems
Asian Environment Simulator
Dynamic
Vegetation
Earth
Simulator
Earth
Observation
System
Regional
Observation
System
RES
52
29 of 35
Tributary
Contribution
Point Source
Non-Point Source
Withdrawal
Spillway
Inflows:
Tributaries
Point sources
Nonpoint source
Spillways
Withdrawal
Hydrological Simulation
53
Dynamic Vegetation Model for Tropical Asia
Photosynthesis
Vegetation
Carbon
Pool
Soil
Carbon
Pool
Sapwood
Respiration Decomposition
(Heterotrophic
Respiration)
Leaf
Heartwood
Sapwood
Root
Below ground Litter
Carbon Pool
Above ground Litter
Carbon Pool
Root
Respiration
Leaf
Respiration
Maintenance
Respiration
Growth
Respiration
GPP NPP
Turnover
wood
leaf
sapwood
heartwood
root
wood
Allocation
(Autotrophic
Respiration)
Growth Respiration = 0.25 (GPP Maintenance Respiration)
NPP = 0.75 (GPP Maintenance Respiration)
Reproduction Cost = 0.10 NPP
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 10 20 30 40 50
C
a
r
b
o
n

F
l
u
x

(
g
C
/
m
2
/
d
a
y
)
Temperature (oC)
GPP, NPP, Respiration
(Tropical Tree)
GPP
Rm
NPP
Rg
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 10 20 30 40 50
C
a
r
b
o
n

F
l
u
x

(
g
C
/
m
2
/
d
a
y
)
Temperature (oC)
GPP, NPP, Respiration
(Tropical Grass)
GPP
Rm
NPP
Rg
Tropical Tree Tropical Grass
NPP & Respiration
Prediction of Wild Fire
NINO4 vs Number of Fire
54
Interactions of Parameterizations
Meso-Scale Meteorological Simulation
PBL
55
PBL Schemes (IBLTYP)
50m>
2000m>
PBL: Planetary B.L.
ABL: Atmospheric B.L.
SBL: Surface B.L.
Ground
Free atmosphere
~10,000m
56
2000m>
~10,000m
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cloud_types
Cirrus cloud
Cumulonimbus
Nimbostratus cloud
Altocumulus cloud
50m> SBL: Surface Layer B.L.
PBL: Planetary B.L.
CONVECTION
57
Monin-Obukhov Similality
E
E
H
H
M
M
K
zu
dz
dq
u
z
K
zu
dz
d
u
z
K
zu
dz
dU
u
z
*
*
*
*
*
*
k k
|
k k
|
k k
|
= =
=
O
=
= =
0
*
ln ) (
z
z u
z u
k
=
t
S
z
z T
z ln ) (
*
k
= O O
q
S
z
z q
z q q ln ) (
*
k
=
Potential Temperature Specific Humidity
*
2
*
3
*
T
T
g
u
C
H
T
g
u
L
p
k
k
=
Monin Obukhov length
Wind (momentum)
Land surface
S
u
r
f
a
c
e

l
a
y
e
r
Momentum
Heat
Humidity
58
59
Bulk Law
) ( ) (
) (
* *
* *
q q C U q q C q u
dz
dq
K q w E
U T T C T u
dz
d
K T w C H
S H S E E
S H H p
= = = =
' '
=
= =
O
=
' '
=
|
Heat Budget
G E H T R
S
+ + + =
+
i o
4
Short
radiation
Long
radiation
Sensible
heat flux
Latent
heat flux
Heat
storage
temperature
moisture
Evaporation
efficiency
60
Land Surface
Model
SOLVEG2
MM5
Japan Atomic Energy
Agency, Y. Nagai
61
external input: precipitation
stomata
Fog water
Diffusion equation
Precipitation
Conservation equation
of vertical flux
Water vapor in air
Diffusion equation
Ground surface water budget eq.
Water vapor in soil
Diffusion eq.
Liquid water in soil
Transport equation
Leaf surface water
Water budget eq.
accretion
accretion
condensation
evaporation
interception
drip
evaporation/
condensation
transpi-
ration
evaporation/
condensation
evaporation/
condensatio
n
evaporation/
condensation
drip
run-off
uptake by root
Water Exchange
62
external input: solar radiation,
long-wave radiation
Liquid water in air
Air (Temperature, Humidity)
Water vapor in soil
Soil matrix and water
Solar radiation transfer equation
Long-wave radiation transfer equation
Leaf surface
heat budget equation
Heat conduction equation
Diffusion equation
Difusion equation
Ground surface heat budget equation
Radiation
Sensible heat
Latent heat (water vapor)
Latent heat due to
phase change
absorptio
n
emission/
reflection
emission/
reflection
emission
emission
emission/
reflection
transmission
absorption
exchang
e
exchang
e
conduction
diffusion
Heat Exchange
63
Dynamic vegetation model
Gap
Building
Mature
Pioneers of Gap Phase
Pioneer of Building Phase
Late-Successional Dominants
Late-Successional Non-Dominants
Late-Successional Subcanopy
Late-Successional Understory
Phases of Stand Development
time
S
t
r
u
c
t
u
r
a
l

p
o
s
i
t
i
o
n
Source: Ashton, M.S. (1998)
Grass
Shrub
Pioneer Tree Primary Tree
Data
64
65
Vegetation Types: Forests, Grasslands, Savannahs, Deserts
Vegetation Distribution determined by Climate, Soils, Fire, Disease,
Competition, Animal Grazing, Chemistry, Human Actions
Vegetation responds to Environmental Changes
Dynamic Vegetation MODEL
LSM(Land Surface Model): Surface Fluxes of Energy and Water
TBM(Terrestrial Biosphere Model): LSM + Vegetation Processes
Photosynthesis & Respiration
DVM(Dynamic Vegetation Model): TBM + Biological Processes
Plants Life Cycles (locations, growth, competition)
Response to Disturbances (fire & storm, human activity)
66
Schematic of carbon and water exchange in a leaf as conceptualized in a
combined photosynthesis-conductance model.
The stomatal conductance (g
s
) is a direct function of photosynthesis, CO
2
concentration at the leaf surface (c
s
), and relative humidity at the leaf surface
[h
s
= e
s
/ e*(T
s
); e
s
: vapor pressure at leaf surface] (see Eq. 7).
where m is an empirical coefficient from observations (=9 for most C3 vegetation
and =4 for C4 vegetation), A
n
is the net CO
2
assimilation, c
s
is the CO
2
concentration at the leaf surface, h
s
is the relative humidity at the leaf surface, p
is the atmospheric pressure, and b is the minimum value of g
s
(=0.01 for C3
vegetation and =0.04 for C4 vegetation).
SiB
p
67
2
Concentration in Soil
Simunek and Suarez (1993)
volume
diffusion
advection
Henrys Law: c
w
= K
H
RTc
a
c
a
soil CO
2
concentration
w
water content ration in soil
E
t
*
transpiration rate
S CO
2
ProductionsoilS
s
rootS
r
S RTc K E c E
z z
c
D
z
c V
t
a H t a E
a
E a E
+
c
c
c
c
c
c
=
c
c
* *
( ) ,
w H w ws E
RT K V q q q + =
( ) ,
w w H a w ws E
D RT K D D q q q + =
,
* * *
w H a E
RTE K E E + =
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) t f c f T f f z f S S
s a s s w s s s s
q
0
=
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) t f c f T f f z f S S
r a r r w r r r r
q
0
=
68
OCEANIC OSCILLATION AND RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
IN THE INDONESIAN ARCHIPELAGO
Takao YAMASHITA, HENDRI, Takashi OKAMOTO
Department of Development Technology, the Graduate School for International
Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University
1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8529, Japan
Tsuyoshi IKEDA
Japan Port Consultants, Ltd.
8-3-6 Nishi-Gotanda, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo 141-0031, Japan
69
Indian Ocean
Pacific Ocean
South
China Sea
70
19
DMI0.28
967490
972300
971800
966450
960110
960730
961710
970140
977240
979000
Java Sea
Banda Sea
Indian
Ocean
DMI
+ -
-
+
Pacific
Ocean
South
China Sea
-
+
El Nino
La Nina
DMI
MEI
PDO
966450
967490
972300
971800
970140
977240
979000
0
30
(
m
m
)
Monthly averaged precipitation
960110
960730
961710
2005
Java Sea
Sumatra
East Indonesia
S
u
m
a
t
r
a
J
a
v
a

S
e
a
E
a
s
t

I
n
d
o
n
e
s
i
a
Dry year Dry year
71
Carbone Budget in 1990s
(IPCC, 2007)
Atmospher
Deep sea
37200
Ocean surface
918
Marine ecosystem
Fossil fuel
Land use change
Land surface
2300
2.2 1.0
0.6
6.4
0.6
Seabed
150
72
Carbon budget (roll of forests)
Fossil fuels are burned they release carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere, contributing to an atmospheric carbon
dioxide increase that, in turn, contributes to global warming
and climate change.
During photosynthesis trees and forests store carbon in
the form of wood and vegetation: Carbon Sequestration.
Trees are generally about 20 % carbon by weight
Overall biomass of forests acts as a carbon sink.
The organic matter in forest soils
The humus produced by the decomposition
of dead plant material
73
Carbon budget (roll of forests)
Forests store enormous amounts of carbon
World's forests and forest soils store 1000Gtons of carbon
twice the atmosphere (according to FAO)
Destruction of forests adds almost 6Gtons CO2 (1.6GtC)
into the atmosphere each year.
74
Better use of Forests
for combating climate change
Not just by preventing forests from being cut down,
but through afforestation (new plantings) and
reforestation (replanting of deforested areas) of non-
forested lands.
Tropical forests can store as much as 15 tonC/ha/yr.
Global carbon retention resulting from reduced
deforestation, increased forest regrowth and more agro-
forestry and plantations could make up for about 15 % of
carbon emissions from fossil fuels over the next 50 years.
75
Better use of Forests
For combating climate change
Harvested wood is a carbon sink -- wood used in
construction or for furniture effectively stores carbon for
centuries.
High-energy construction materials used in place of wood,
such as plastics, aluminum or cement, typically require
large amounts of fossil fuels during manufacturing
Use of wood fuel instead of oil, coal and natural gas, can
actually mitigate climate change.
Burning wood and biomass from a sustainably-managed
forest, those carbon releases can be offset.

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Joint Research Workshop : Long-term Terrestrial Carbon Budget Estimation September 17, 2012@IPB

Maunder Minimum Dalton Minimum

Land Surface &

Ocean & Waves

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