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Professor Kim Fall 2012 ECONOMICS 220 Introduction to Statistical Methods Instructor Information Name: Jong Kim Office:

106 Modern Language Building Phone: Email: jhkim813@gmail.com and jhkim@emory.edu Office Hours: Tuesday from 2:30pm to 5:00pm, Wednesday from 10am to 1pm, Thursda y from 8am to 9:30am or by appointment Description & Goal of Economics 220: Economic inference, hypothesis testing, and forecasting are essential parts of applied economics. The probability and stati stics theory provides useful tools for carrying this task. The rational is that economic phenomena can be viewed as the realization of underlying stochastic pro cesses. The nature and property of a stochastic process can be described by its probability law, which can be inferred by appropriate statistical methods in app lication to the observed data. Economics 220 is the first course providing theoretical tools for the advanced c ourses such as Empirical Methods in Economics (Economics 221), Econometrics (Eco nomics 420), and Economics Forecasting (Economics 422). Economics 220 introduces basic concepts and theory in probability and statistics. Throughout the course, rigorous quantitative analysis will be emphasized, although economic motivation , and intuition will be provided as well. Students are required to have a good command of algebra, especially differentiation and integration. Course Information Prerequisite: Math 111 (Calculus) or permission by the instructor Textbooks: (1) Richard J. Larson and Morris L. Marx. 2011. Introduction to Mathe matical Statistics and Its Application (ISBN: 0321693949) Prentice Hall, 5th Edi tion. Study guide optional (2) Recommended Textbook: Marris H. DeGroot and Mark J. Schervish. 2011. Probabi lity and Statistics (ISBN: 0321500466) Addison Wesley, 4th edition, study guide optional Both textbooks are not necessarily required to be purchased in Prof Kims Econ 220 since he will post his notes on online. However, students who major in mathemat ics, want to do graduate studies, and are eager to learn probability and statist ics in depth are strongly recommended to purchase one of them as a reference. Statistical Software: We will use R, a free software package suitable for data a nalysis and graphical representation. It is very flexible and highly customizabl e. Excellent graphic tools make R an ideal environment for data analysis. There are versions for Unix, Windows, and Mackintosh. All of them are free, and Window version is downloadable at: http://www.r-project.org Surprise Quiz: A 10-minute surprise quiz will be given at the end of the class. This quiz will consist of similar questions from examples of my lecture note, ex amples and exercises from two textbooks, and practice questions I will place on a class conference.

Exams and Grade Policy: Midterm 1 (25%), Midterm 2 (25%), Quiz (20%), and Compre hensive Final (30%). The following grades are guaranteed: A( 94%), A-(94% > A- 90 %), B+(90% > B+ 87%), B(87% > B 84%), B-(84% > B- 80%), C+ (80% > C+ 77%), C(77 % > C 74%), C-(74% > C- 70%), D(70% > D 60%), and F (< 60%). Attendance Policy: Attendance is not required. I cannot emphasize enough the nee d for consistent attendance. Many materials will not be contained in the texts a nd also I will not follow the textbooks section by section. If you do not attend class on a regular basis, it will affect your performance in the course. Classroom Culture: If you would rather be sleeping, reading the newspaper, liste ning to your ipod or shopping for shoes on the internet, Id suggest that you do t hat somewhere much more comfortable than the classroom. Online poker is strongly discouraged. Dont put phones, ipads, and computers on the desk in class. Please make sure to bring a calculator along to class. ECONOMICS 220: OUTLINE Basic Concepts: Probability Theory: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Introduction Set Theory and Introduction to Probability Conditional Probability, Bayes Theorem, and Independence Random Variable and Probability Distribution Expectations, Moments, and Conditional Expectations Bivariate Distributions and Correlation

Statistics Theory: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Normal Distributions and Central Limit Theorem (CLT) Introduction to Statistics and Sampling Distributions Parameter Estimation and Efficiency Confident Interval Estimation Hypothesis Testing Analysis of Variance

Exam Dates: Midterm 1 (Oct. 11th, 2012) Midterm 2 (Nov. 15th, 2012) Final Exam: To be announced later. Ground Rules: - Practice at solving statistical problems cannot be overemphasized. Feel free t o solve additional problems from the textbooks and problem sets. - If there are difficulties solving problems, feel free to visit the professor d uring office hours or make an appointment. - Feel free to use email to contact the professor to ask questions. - Please pay attention to your academic progress in the course and take remedial action before it is too late. - All forms of academic dishonesty will be dealt with by the book. No Excuse Is Ac ceptable. The best way to attain a good grade is not to make a good grade your direct end, but to fix your mind on something else a joy of learning.