Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Bank of America Merrill Lynch is a marketing name for the Retirement Services businesses of Bank of America Corporation (BAC). Banking and fiduciary activities are performed by wholly owned banking affiliates of BAC, including Bank of America, N.A., member FDIC. Brokerage services are performed by wholly owned brokerage affiliates of BAC, including Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (MLFP&S), a registered broker-dealer and member SIPC. Investment Products: Are Not FDIC Insured Are Not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value
MLPF&S is a registered broker-dealer, Member SIPC and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation. 2012 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Investors grew more nervous in the second quarter due to slowing growth and concerns about the European
debt crisis. Riskier assets declined, while those considered safer outperformed.
Description
Equity
Q2 2012 (%)
-2.8 -3.2 -3.1 -4.0 -2.2 -4.4 -5.6 -3.3 -3.5 -3.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 2.0 2.5 -2.7 -5.1 -7.1 -7.5 -8.9 -6.4
U.S. Treasuries led performance, rising 3.0% on rising investor fear. The Large Cap equity S&P 500 fell 2.8%; the ML US Broad Market Index rose 2.2%. Markets with very high exposure to economic growth, such as commodities and Emerging Markets, were lead
underperformers. The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell sharply, down 8.9%.
Riskier assets fell in the second quarter as investors grew increasingly concerned about slowing global growth and the Eurozone debt crisis. Volatility jumped, and by early June many equity indices had declined significantly from last quarters highs. Investors fled into government bonds considered safe, such as U.S. Treasuries and German bunds, where yields neared historic lows. In June, however, investors took heart from government measures in Europe as well as signs that growth, though slowing, was not coming to a halt. As a result, equities recovered somewhat from the quarters lows. The S&P 500 Index declined 2.8% in the second quarter, with riskier Small Cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 Index, down 3.5%. Bonds benefitted from rising investor fears, and the ML US Broad Market Index increased 2.2%. U.S. Treasuries, considered a safe haven, led performance with a 3.0% gain. Other areas of the markets sensitive to economic growth, especially commodities, posted dramatic declines. Outside the U.S., developed markets posted negative returns in U.S. dollars (partly because the euro fell against the U.S. dollar) while Emerging Markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Market Index, plunged 8.9%.
S&P 500 WITH DIVIDENDS RUSSELL 3000 RUSSELL 1000 RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH RUSSELL 1000 VALUE RUSSELL MIDCAP RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE RUSSELL 2000 RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH RUSSELL 2000 VALUE Fixed Income ML US BROAD MARKET BOND ML US TREASURY MASTER ML CORPORATE MASTER ML HIGH YIELD MASTER ML MORTGAGE MASTER ML MUNICIPAL MASTER USD EMERGING MARKET SOVEREIGNS PLUS ML CONVERTIBLE BOND INDEX Global Equities* MSCI WORLD INDEX MSCI EAFE INDEX MSCI EUROPE MSCI EMERGING MARKETS MSCI PACIFIC
*Morgan Stanley Capital International Indexes (MSCI). All Indexes include dividend reinvestment and are in U.S. dollar terms.
2007
40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
20 0
-20 -40
Looking Ahead
After watching Europes situation deteriorate in the second quarter, investors will likely focus more on the situation in the U.S., where voters will be choosing a president and a polarized government will face significant challenges on the fiscal and budgetary front. Of great concern is the fiscal cliff, a combination of automatic tax increases and budget cuts that, together, would likely push the U.S. economy into recession if measures are not taken.
GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AND GUIDANCE SECOND QUARTER 2012
-60
MSCI EAFE -NET S&P 500 WITH DIVIDENDS CASH ML US BROAD MARKET BOND INDEX RUSSELL 2000
*All figures, unless otherwise specified, are in U.S. dollar terms. 2012 Bank of America Corporation. Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.
Equity Focus
Performance by Style (%)
As volatility rose, U.S. equities ended lower in the second quarter, with U.S. Midcap and Small Cap stocks
among the lead underperformers, down 4.4% and 3.5%, respectively, as represented by the Russell Midcap Index and Russell 2000 Index, respectively. U.S. Large Caps, represented by the Russell 1000 Index also posted negative returns, declining 3.1%.
S&P 500
15 10 5 0 -5 -10
-2.8
9.5
Large Cap Value stocks outperformed Large Cap Growth stocks, as investors sought out income from
companies that pay dividends.
Yield led performance, with Telecommunications the lead sector, up 14.1%. Defensive sectors also benefitted
from investor concern. Utilities rose 6.5%.
Financials were the worst performing sector, falling 6.8% as investors confronted the potential for a stricter
regulatory environment.
U.S. equities were volatile for the quarter as concerns over a global slowdown deterred investors from taking risks. Markets peaked in the beginning of the quarter before dropping dramatically in the end of May, after uncertainty in Europe and disappointing U.S. economic news heightened investor worries that a global economic slowdown could continue. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised downwards in May. In June, the lower-than-expected jobs report continued to shake investor confidence. The S&P 500 was down 2.8% for the quarter.
Index Returns S&P 500 RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH RUSSELL 1000 VALUE RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH RUSSELL 2000 VALUE
Russell Midcap
-4.4 8.0
Russell 2000
-3.5 8.5
-3.1
9.4
Looking Ahead
Investors will continue to evaluate potential actions by government policymakers to see if they will offer solutions to stimulate economic growth. They will also begin to focus on the upcoming November U.S. presidential election and how the U.S. election uncertainty may affect the markets.
Q2 2012
YTD 2012
Q2 2012
14.1 6.5 2.9 1.7 -2.6 -3.6 -4.2 -6.0 -6.7 -6.8
YTD 2012
16.5 4.8 8.6 11.0 12.9 7.3 6.5 -2.3 13.3 13.7
GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AND GUIDANCE SECOND QUARTER 2012
2012 Bank of America Corporation. Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.
Bonds rose in the second quarter as investors fled riskier assets. Safer bonds led performance in the quarter with the ML US Treasury Master rising 3.0%, and the ML US
Treasuries 15+ Yrs Index up 11.2%.
Sector
ML US BROAD MARKET BOND ML US TREASURY MASTER ML CORPORATE MASTER ML HIGH YIELD MASTER ML MORTGAGE MASTER ML MUNICIPAL MASTER ML 3 MTH US T-BILLS ML 1-3 YR TREASURY ML 3-5 YR TREASURY ML 5-7 YR TREASURY ML 7-10 YR TREASURY ML 10-15 YR TREASURY ML US TREASURIES 15+ YRS ML CONVERTIBLES
-5%
Q2 2012
YTD 2012
Q2 2012
2.2 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.1 2.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.8 6.4 11.2 -2.7
YTD 2012
2.5 1.7 4.9 7.1 1.7 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.2 3.7 4.3 6.9
Muni bond performance has remained steady, with the ML Muni Master up 2.0%. With falling interest rates,
longer maturity municipals rallied.
The second quarter marked another flight to safety for investors as they sold equities and turned to U.S. bonds amid a volatile market. The Treasury yield curve flattened along with the rally in Treasuries, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending well below the 2% level, finishing the quarter at 1.67%.
0%
5%
10%
15%
6 Month
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year
30 Year
2 1 0
Looking Ahead
During the next quarter, investors will look for signs of market stability. They will also be watching global government policymakers, particularly in Europe, for evidence that the region is a step closer to resolving its financial problems.
ML Corporate Master
2.4 4.9
3.0
1.7
2012 Bank of America Corporation. Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.
International Focus
MSCI EAFE Returns (%) in U.S. Dollar Terms - Net
International equities were down for the second quarter as the European debt crisis deepened. Greece led
the European stock decline, down 27.5% .*
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
Japan
-7.3 3.1
United Kingdom
-4.0 3.4
Germany
-12.4 5.9 -9.0
France
2.1 -7.1
EAFE
3.0
Emerging Markets, which are considered relatively risky, led underperformance, dropping 8.9%. In developed markets, Germanys performance was especially weak, declining 12.4%. The U.S. dollar held strong against most major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen, leading
to lower performance for U.S.-based investors who hold foreign investments.
Investors continued to favor the U.S. markets over other international developed markets due to the fiscal problems in Europe and the slowing growth in the Emerging Markets. The S&P 500 returned -2.8% in the quarter versus -7.1% for MSCI EAFE and -8.9% for MSCI Emerging Markets.
Q2 2012
Q2 2012
3.9 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -4.1 -4.4 -4.5 -4.9 -5.0 -5.1 -6.0 -9.1
Symbol
JPY SGD AUD KRW TWD CAD GBP NZD MXN SEK NOK CHF DKK EUR ZAR BRL
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, international investors will review the new measures for the European bailout plan and its impact on the debt crisis. Investors will also continue to look toward policymakers for additional solutions to market volatility.
S&P 500
10 5
World
5.9 -7.1
EAFE
3.0
-2.8
0
-5 -10
2012 Bank of America Corporation. Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.
Macro events, somewhat dormant in the previous quarter, came to the forefront as sovereign debt, Greek
elections, and the U.S. fiscal cliff concerns stifled investors risk appetite.
DJ/CS Hedge DJ/CS Global DJ/CS Long DJ/CS Event Fund Index Macro Short Driven
-2.5 1.5 -2.8 -1.9 -3.7 4.4 -3.5 0.1
-2.8
9.5
Markets became more risk-averse, and there were noticeable declines across the board in all strategies,
especially in May. Fixed income investment continued to be a lead performer.
10 5 0
-5
-10
Hedge Funds S&P 500 INDEX DJ/CS HEDGE FUND INDEX DJ/CS GLOBAL MACRO DJ/CS LONG SHORT DJ/CS EVENT DRIVEN DJ/CS MANAGED FUTURES DJ/CS EMERGING MARKETS
Commodities (%)
9.5
0
Relative Value Down Marginally While Global Macro and Managed Futures Had Tough Course
Relative value was down marginally for the quarter with convertible arbitrage and low volatility credit results flat to muted. Equity market neutral, however, felt the brunt of the heightened correlations and volatility as the DJ/CS Equity Market Neutral Index finished 3.3% lower, erasing the previous quarters gains. Managed Futures and Global Macro were down 1.4% and 2.8%, respectively, according to their DJ/CS indexes. The lack of visible long-term trends made navigation difficult. Commodity markets fell dramatically in May, some registering doubledigit losses. By June, commodities saw wide dispersion with a sharp decline in oil, significant gains in natural gas and agriculturals and mixed performance in metals. Fixed income, specifically in the U.S., UK and Germany, continued to be the most consistent positive performer.
-2.8
-6.7
-6.9
3.3
1.8
10
5 0 -5
-2
-4 -6 -8
3
2 1 0
Looking Ahead
The focus will continue to be on further signs of contagion from the European debt crisis and additional indications of a global growth slowdown as recently seen by weak economic numbers from China and the U.S. The possibility of disappointing second quarter U.S. corporate earnings may also contribute to less-thanoptimistic market sentiment.
*Alternative Investment products may only be sold by AI-qualified Financial Advisors to pre-qualified clients. Most alternative investment products are sold on a private placement basis and eligible clients must typically be Qualified Purchasers ($5 million net investments).
GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AND GUIDANCE SECOND QUARTER 2012
Index Returns S&P 500 Index Commodities (Reuters Jefferies CRB Index) U.S. Dollar Index Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The hedge fund indices shown are provided for illustrative purposes only. They do not represent benchmarks or proxies for the return of any particular hedge fund product. The hedge fund universe from which the components of the indices are selected is based on funds which have continued to report results for a minimum period of time. This prerequisite for fund selection interjects a significant element of "survivor bias" into the reported levels of the indices, as generally only successful funds will continue to report for the required period, so that the funds from which the statistical analysis or the performance of the indices to date is derived necessarily tend to have been successful. Merrill Lynch assumes no responsibility for any of the foregoing performance information, which has been provided by the index sponsor. Neither Merrill Lynch nor the index sponsor can verify the validity or accuracy of the self-reported returns of the managers used to calculate the index returns. Merrill Lynch does not guarantee the accuracy of the index returns and does not recommend any investment or other decision based on the results presented.
2012 Bank of America Corporation. Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.
Important Information
The opinions expressed herein are those of the Merrill Lynch GWM Investment Management & Guidance as of June 30, 2012 and are subject to change. It is provided as general market commentary only, and it does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. It should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. When reading this commentary, you should consider that investments in securities involve risk and you could lose some or all of the amounts you have invested. The information herein was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The indexes referenced herein are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment; returns assume no management, transaction or other expenses and also assume reinvestment of dividends, interest and/or capital gains. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. MERRILL LYNCH ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY OF THE FOREGOING PERFORMANCE INFORMATION, WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE INDEX SPONSOR. NEITHER MERRILL LYNCH NOR THE INDEX SPONSOR CAN VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR ACCURACY OF THE SELF-REPORTED RETURNS OF THE MANAGERS USED TO CALCULATE THE INDEX RETURNS. MERRILL LYNCH DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE INDEX RETURNS AND DOES NOT RECOMMEND ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION BASED ON THE RESULTS PRESENTED. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and the comparison of Dow Jones/Credit Suisse hedge fund indices (each, an Index) of actively managed funds to passive securities indices has material inherent limitations. In addition, the results of each Index is subject to a variety of potentially material distortions compared to an actual hedge fund investment due to a number of factors, including without limitation, the manner in which the funds which comprise the Index are selected. The hedge fund universe from which the components of the Index are chosen is based on funds which have continued to report results for a minimum period of time. This prerequisite for fund selection interjects a significant element of survivor bias into the reported levels of the Index, as generally only successful funds will continue to report for the required period, so that the funds from which the statistical analysis or the performance of the HFR Index to date is derived necessarily tend to have been successful. There can, however, be no assurance that such funds will continue to be successful in the future. The relative weightings of the performance of the constituent funds in calculating the Index may further bias the Index towards successful funds. The general volatility and drawdown reduction effects of combining the performance of multiple funds must also be borne in mind when considering the performance of the Index. In addition, alternative investment funds are subject to a risk of ruin which is not reflected in the standard deviation of their returns, the only measure of risk used in calculating Sharpe Ratios. It is not possible to invest directly in a hedge fund index and the indices presented are not intended as performance benchmarks for any particular investment product. Hedge funds are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. The use of a single fund of funds manager applying one set of allocation procedures could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is no secondary market nor is one expected to develop for investments in hedge funds and there may be restrictions on transferring fund investments. Hedge funds may be leveraged and performance may be volatile. Hedge funds have high fees and expenses that reduce returns. A substantial portion of the trades executed by the underlying managers may take place on non-US exchanges. Investing in emerging markets may involve greater risks than investing in more developed countries. In addition, concentration of investments in a single region may result in greater volatility. There are special risks associated with an investment in commodities, including market price fluctuations, regulatory changes, interest rate changes, credit risk, economic changes, and the impact of adverse political or financial factors.
MLPF&S is a registered broker-dealer, Member SIPC and a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation. 2012 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. ARL6Z216
GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AND GUIDANCE SECOND QUARTER 2012
2012 Bank of America Corporation. Printed in the USA. All rights reserved.