Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas

Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed
The disastrous floods of September 2012, in Baloch areas of Pakistani occupied territory, are feared to be a human catastrophe due to both the tyranny of nature and criminal ignorance of an oppressing state. Talent and resources of the State has not been mobilized to minimize the risk at any stage. Ironically is, instead of appreciating and facilitating local and international aid agencies, the notorious regime officially restricted their activities. The needs and desires of Baloch never were a priority of Punjabi Army Mafia. The State response to prevailing situation represented the inhuman oppressing attitude of ruling Punjab towards Baloch nation, which is condemnable by any definition. Presenting a preliminary report, our aim is to inform the world of the tragic situation of Baloch nation. Besides developing awareness, we urge the international community to step in the rescue and recovery operations to save the humanity. Finally it is worth mentioning to appeal the Baloch political leadership and energetic youth to come forward in this critical moment. Though the presence of inhuman Pakistani military in the area is a proven risk for the Baloch aid workers but God helps those who help themselves.
A Study of Emergency Phase Response (Record rainfalls of 440 mm were recorded in Jacobabad and adjoining areas Delayed monsoon 2012 broke the records of past hundreds years.) By Nozbandagh Baloch Baloch National Council for Human Rights bncfhr@gmail.com 2
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Contents DESCRIPTION OF FLOOD EVENT .................................................................................................... 5 LOCATION OF FLOOD DISASTER ................................................................................................ 5 Affected Areas under Study ................................................................................................................ 7 Precipitation and Flood frequency ...................................................................................................... 8 Normal Precipitation in Monsoon Season .......................................................................................... 8 Flood Frequency ..................................................................................................................................... 9 September 09, 2012 The Flood ...................................................................................................... 10 Pre- Flood Precipitation ................................................................................................................ 10 Flood in Dera Ghazi Khan- Rajanpur ........................................................................................... 11 Flood in Barkhan and Kohlu ......................................................................................................... 12 Flood in Dera Bugti ...................................................................................................................... 13 Flood in Jacobabad ....................................................................................................................... 14 Flood in Jafarabd Naseerabad and Jhal Magsi .............................................................................. 15 Reported Loss of Life, Live Stock ........................................................................................................ 16 Reported Loss of Life during August 23- August 31........................................................................ 16 Reported Loss of Live Stock during August 23- August 31 ............................................................. 16 Summary of Damages till September 27, 2012 ................................................................................ 17 Flood Warning ...................................................................................................................................... 18 Warning System ................................................................................................................................ 18 Flood Forecast Pakistan Metrological Department ........................................................................ 18 July 13, 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 18 July 14, 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 19 July 15, 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 20 July 20, 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 21 July 26, 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 22 July 27, 2012 ................................................................................................................................. 23 August 10, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 24 August 15, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 25 August 23, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 26 August 23, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 27 First Warning of August 26, 2012 ................................................................................................ 28 Second Warning of August 26, 2012 ............................................................................................ 29 August 27, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 30 3
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed August 28, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 31 August 31, 2012 ............................................................................................................................ 32 September 05, 2012 ...................................................................................................................... 33 September 06, 2012 ...................................................................................................................... 34 The Standards........................................................................................................................................ 35 Criteria for an effective warning system ........................................................................................... 35 Design Parameters ............................................................................................................................ 35 Pre-Flood Preparedness .................................................................................................................... 35 Flood Prediction ................................................................................................................................ 35 Warning Response in Flood 2012 ..................................................................................................... 37 Post Flood Response ............................................................................................................................. 37 Response of Pakistan as a State ........................................................................................................ 37 Response of Pakistani Media ............................................................................................................ 37 Response of NGOs............................................................................................................................ 37 The Road and Railways Departments ............................................................................................... 37 Health Department ............................................................................................................................ 37 Irrigation Department........................................................................................................................ 37 Needs ................................................................................................................................................ 38 Description of most acute humanitarian needs ................................................................................. 38 Protection ...................................................................................................................................... 38 Nutrition ........................................................................................................................................ 38 Water, Sanitation & Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 38 Food Assistance and Livelihood Recovery ................................................................................... 38 Emergency Shelter ........................................................................................................................ 38 Setting up relief camps .................................................................................................................. 38 Safety and security ........................................................................................................................ 38 References ............................................................................................................................................. 39
DESCRIPTION OF FLOOD EVENT

LOCATION OF FLOOD DISASTER
Though it was a delayed monsoon but the Baloch areas in Indus Basin, along Sulaiman Mountain ranges received heavy rains. Specifically from the night of September 07, till the afternoon of September 10, extremely heavy downpour paralyzed the region. The rural areas of Dera Ghazi Khan Region including Kala, Shahdan Lund, Shah Sader Din, Wadoor, Yaroo, Chabri, and Kot Habit are worst affected by the hill torrents from the Sulaiman mountain ranges. Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur areas of Baloch motherland are ruined by the torrents flowing from Fort Minro , Gaji , or The Giandari, a mountain peak, approximately 1,250 meters (4,100 ft) in height, in the Sulaiman range situated in the Mazari Tribal Territory of Rojhan Mazari, on the Balochistan-Punjab border. It is about 65 kilometers (40 mi) west of Indus River. Giandari is a part of the large and extensive Sulaiman Range of mountains and hills. Dera Ghazi Khan (2996N 7049 E) and Rojhan Mazari (2834N 7013E), are the closer towns near the Indus River. Dera Bugti at 292N 699 E got severely damaged by Pohli, Siah Aaf, Khishari, Sori Kushtigh and Asraily torrents from Bambore and Zain hills of the Sulaiman Ranges. Pohli left bank breach flown away the settlements in Sohr , while Siah Aaf and Khshari torrents rinsed down the settlements of Siah Aaf and Singsila. South and South West bound torrents of Sohri Kushtigh and Asraily are reported to carry more than 80,000 cusecs of flood waters at September 11, 2012 ruined the settlements of Khaten, Shazin, Bitti and breached both right and left banks of Patfeeder Canal. 5
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Instead of drying down the Patfeeder canal due to prior warnings of flood, the irrigation authorities criminally discharged 5300 cusecs. It should be noted here that maximum discharge capacity of Patfeeder canal is not more than 6500 cusecs. Flood and Canal water together proved to be even disastrous for the Baloch settlements on the left bank of Patfeeder. Hundreds of villages are washed away including Bakhilani , Haiywani , and Haveewani villages. This water further breached Frontier and Shahi canals, Baloch population of Bugti colony, Tangwani , Bahoo , Karim Bakhsh , Taj Muhammad Khoso villages of Jacobabad(2820N 6829E) District came under flood waters. Floods further more entered in Jafarabad (2838N 6835E) districts via Sim Shakh a canal on the eastern boundaries of the city. This ruined the towns of Dera Allah Yar (2838N 6835E) , Rojhan Jamali(2827N 6827E), Usta Muhammad (2818N 6805E) and some parts of Jhal Magsi(2828N 6745E) district too. There are many of hill ranges the offshoots of Sulaiman mountain ranges in Kohlu (2954N 6915E) Prominent are Dungan, Lakar, Sialu , Tikil, Siah Koh , Kup, Chappar,Sir Ani, Shatrak, Turki Koh, Tatra, Rastnini, Danda range including Nafusk, Bambo, and Gurandani and the Sunari. Beji, Nesau, Janatali, Chakar Thank, Gandar and Dada torrents played havoc in this monsoon. Westward settlements of the area got entirely vanished while others are severely damaged. Sham, Sherani, Lui Dhaw, Miran Kach, Lagh Patti, Kashi, Karpasi, Rekh, Turkho and Gurandani areas of Kohlu are severely affected.
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Affected Areas under Study
Precipitation and Flood frequency Normal Precipitation in Monsoon Season
The southwestern summer monsoons occur from June through September. The Thar Desert and adjoining areas of the northern and central Indian subcontinent heats up considerably during the hot summers, which causes a low pressure area over the northern and central Indian subcontinent. To fill this void, the moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean rush in to the subcontinent. These winds, rich in moisture, are drawn towards the Himalayas, creating winds blowing storm clouds towards the subcontinent. The Himalayas act like a high wall, blocking the winds from passing into Central Asia, thus forcing them to rise. With the gain in altitude of the clouds, the temperature drops and precipitation occurs. Hill torrents of Sulaiman ranges normally flood in monsoon season from second week of August till the first week of September. In this year it was a late monsoon and caused havoc in the lives of Baloch nationals. The flow of hill torrents is normally very high in the downstream; it gets a little slow when reaches the piedmont. Still the roaring mighty waters brush away the human settlements. The data of Pakistan Metrological Department, based upon observations of thirty years from 19712000.
According to available data chart, average precipitation in monsoon season remained between 100mm and 200mm, in the affected areas under study.
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Flood Frequency
Year 1993 1996 2002 2007 2010 2012
Accumulative Water Discharge from Asraily Torrent 22000 Cusec 35000 Cusec 18000 Cusec 48000 Cusec 33000 Cusec 80000 Cusec
(The data for other torrents is not available) Asraily torrent flows from the Zain Koh of Dera Bugti District, it flows through Khaten and Shazain Deserts and discharges at the right bank of Patfeeder Canal. Though the canal banks are raised allowing a little bank storage, but there is no any proper discharge mechanism for the flood water. Therefore they do not sustain the water flow pressure breach within hours. Six consecutive floods within a spell of ten years prove the negligence of authorities at par.
Statistics of causalities are too high in the war torn Marri-Bugti areas of Dera Bugti and Kohlu, but officials did not mention these areas as flood affected. According to locals dozens of villages of Dera Bugti and Kohlu got vanished of surface by the floods, and hardly any area of the region is not affected by the floods. Confirmed death toll of Dera Bugti is 52, while in the Kohlu and Barkhan more than 30 dead bodies are reported floating in flood waters.
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed September 09, 2012 The Flood
Pre- Flood Precipitation
The Meteorological conditions were known to be unusual throughout the season. Metrological department issued various flood warnings but State authorities remained criminally calm. It is clearly stated in these warnings that Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas. Record of some seventeen letters containing flood warnings is annexed with this report.
On Friday July 13, at a burning hot noon, showers started to bless the Sulaiman Mountains. Innocent villagers were enjoying the folk songs from Kohlu to Dera Bugti, as they have never been informed of upcoming disaster by anyone. Within an hour or so the rain got intense and joys doubled by the thought of having some good seasonal crops and definitely the assumed green pastures amused the professional shepherds. Now the thunderstorms have reached sever intensities and warnings were issued from the metrological flood forecasting division which could not reach the victims so far. Though the rainfall remained a little light than the expectations of flood forecasting division, but it provided enough water for the seasonal crops and the pasture lands in the region. Sky remained cloudy, thunder storms now scattered throughout the region, and clusters of rain started from midnight kept wetting the mountain dwellers till dawn. Hill torrents gathered water, Beji , Rakhi, Pohli, Khishari, Sohri Kushtigh and Asraily reached the surroundings within no time. Men gathered in traditional manners to water their fields and women got busy in securing households. Day passed in the shadows of clouds and uproars of storms. Showers continued off and on and ended at 28th of the month. Though the livestock got affected but very low damages were witnessed so far. But this was the end of the blessing. 10
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Just after a week, a new monsoon spell started at August 04, and lasted till August 15, this time people got much irritated. Due to flooding torrents scarcely available means of communication were badly damaged. Roads got vanished and local means of transportation was virtually at halt. Locals were unable to manage the Medical emergencies and food shortage was among the worst they were facing now. Another flood warning was issued by the metrological office assuming a moderate flooding in River Chanab , and River Ravi. As it was a threat to central Punjab, the homeland of military mafia and ruling elite so the authorities got busy in the prevention and rescue operations in much privileged areas. Already neglected Baloch miseries went off the screens of media too. Punjabi media started a campaign to protect their brethren of a possible disaster and forgot about those who were already suffering of the same. Yet people could not recover, once again heavens started to pour. In the evening of August 23, heavy thunderstorms blended the rain. It looked like test of temperament for both the nature and the Baloch inhabitants. Mighty forces of nature were roaring and Balochs got no one to rescue them but the nature herself. Due to continues rainfall live stock died and poor got deprived of their belongings. This spell continued till 31st August, left 21 dead bodies of helpless human folks, while poor shepherds were deprived of 102 Sheep /Goats and cows reportedly. At September 05, a new spell of monsoon enters in the Area. Continues clusters of rain got worst after 4 days of showers. At September 09, 2012 Sulaiman ranges received 440 mm of rain fall within 36 hours, which was a record breaking rainfall after hundred years. Flood in Dera Ghazi Khan- Rajanpur
Met office noticed a well marked low pressure area in the region which was an indicator of heavy rains in technical terms. It seems that Pakistan metrological department habitually uses the words of Moderate Flood in their warnings for any worst situation, expected by them. Such an irresponsible presentation of disaster is defended by the authorities calling it a measure to avoid the unnecessary panic. The previous warnings were th th repeated at 5 and 6 September with same words, but there were no one to hear them. Already damaged roads combined with the hill torrents closed all the escaping possibilities for the locals. People were at their own, helping each other to die peacefully, 11
Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed because the chances of survival were not there anymore. Sky was pouring the wet death, while on earth there were hunger and dieses getting epidemic to prey the humanity. There were no news from far flung areas; even no one uttered a few words about the devastations of flood, just a few kilometers away from the divisional headquarters of Dera Ghazi Khan. This time flooding torrents started to enter the nearby towns. Villages of Kala, Shadan Lund, Shah Sadar Din, Wadoor, Yaroo, Chabri and kot Habit were first reported to be damaged by the floods. Criminal silence of the state was maintained as a policy, until media raised a weak voice for the face saving and future references. The water made the way through Batil and Sakhi Sarwar ruined the settlements on the way to Dera Ghazi khan. This cache of flood entered the Dera Ghazi Khan City areas at 12 th September and then turned to the shallow lands of Rajanpur, and joined the torrents of Choti Bala near Jampur. Torrents from Choti Bala entered Jampur on one way, while on the other ruined the settlements of Tibi Lundan, Lalgarh, Dajal , Muhammad Pur Dewan, and Haji Pur. Haji Pur onwards Water from Giandari torrents joined too, accumulated mega flood devastated the Rajanpur entirely. Within two days flood entered in Kashmor district of Sindh after sweeping away the settlements of Asni, Chachran, Rojhan and Shahwali. Accumulated Flood waters from Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur added with the waters of Gandoi torrents from Sui, played real havoc in the Kashmor region. Entire region displayed as a vast dam till Ghouspur. Flood in Barkhan and Kohlu Hill torrents from Sulaiman mountain ranges severely damaged the Nahar Kot area of Barkhan District. Bohri and surroundings are also reported to be affected. In Kohlu Sham, Sherani, Lui Dhaw, Miran Kach, Lagh Patti, Kashi, Karpasi, Rekh, Turkho and Gurandani areas are severely damaged by the rains and flooding hill torents. The war torn area is virtually inaccessible by any one due to restrictions from Pakistani military so it is really impossible to collect information. In the i nformation era no means of communication is allowed in the area. In the mean time United Nations Working Group for Enforced and Involuntary Disappearances reached Pakistan to investigate the cases of abductions by State authorities. Media policy changed overnight, media started to beat the drums. Ariel surveys were initiated and photo session began. Every pillar of State looked busy, but that was just to deceive the UN WGEID. Satanic State of Pakistan turned the sufferings in her favor, and authorities refused to meet UN WGEID, as they were supposed to be busy in relief and rescue operations. As a matter of fact no one bothered to access the affected areas till date.
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Flood in Dera Bugti
In the north east the torrents of Siah Koh and Bamobor, vanished Sohr, Siah Aaf, and Singsila. Parts of city including Pir Chhatta, Yankhaw and Mandwani villages came under water. While the settlements around Sanhri , and Dasht Goran areas got badly damaged. Due to inaccessibility of Marav, Phailawagh, Loph and Loti Shambani damages are not recorded so far, but there are reports of heavy rains in these areas as well. At the southern end in Dera Bugti region, flood water from Zain Koh breached the upper bank of Patfeeder canal at midnight between 9th and 10th September. This was reported in a leading newspaper at September 12, which shows the seriousness of Pakistani media. As the first flood warning by MET office was issued at July 13, and it followed continues flesh warnings till September 05, 2012. Irrigation authorities were supposed to keep a hawks eye on the situation and ensure to dry down the canals in time to prevent further worsening. But telemetry records of Indus River System Authority show an excess flow of Patfeeder canal. At September 09, 8:00 PM, telemetry records at Guddo Barrage show that 5300 cusecs of water was released in Patfeeder. In ideal conditions the canal is designed to discharge 6500 cusecs. Interestingly closure of canals were ordered at September 10, which means if orders of IRSA were obeyed timely , still it would have taken a few days to discharge the water already released.
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Flood in Jacobabad The weak sandy banks of Patfeeder could not sustain the unusual pressure of flooding Asraily and Suhri Kushtigh torrents and the left bank breached too. A 600 feet long breach on the left bank was enough to sweep away everything which could come in the water way that is what exactly happened. Baloch settlements of, Bakhliani, Haweewani, Hayywani, Bajkani, and Nindwani were swept away with a single stroke of a virtual river. Water breached tiny Frontier Canal at provincial boundary of Sindh and Balochistan, and started to accumulate at the banks of Shahi Canal. Within 24 hours it developed a Dam, and level of water rose to 12 feet. At September 11, the settlements of Bugti Colony, Zafar Colony, Shahbeg Bugti, Adam Khan village, Shabir Shaheed Village , and Tagiya Village were no longer in existence. People got trapped in and there were no way to flee away. They could hardly manage to secure the lives at remaining banks of Shahi canal. Left bank of Shahi canal broke immediately and Union councils of Tajoo Khoso, Misripur, were ruined. This cache entered Tangwani, Bahoo Khoso, Gishkori Shahr, Rehmtullah Bugti, and Sundrani village , entered in the Thul City. Now the authorities diverted the flow of water by cutting roads around to protect the ancient city of Thull. On the other hand water from Dera Bugti via eastern areas of Bitti, and Uch of Jaffarabad District joined these waters at Union Councils Kot Jango, Karim Bakhash, and Ahmed Pur. At September 14, citizens of Jacobabad town received flood forming notices from district authorities. There was a serious threat to city and vicinity. Water entered in some areas of the city, including Family Lane, Dashti Village and Rind Wahi. Outside the city was an oceanic view. A house collapse was reported from the city area in KTN News, three members of the family including a minor girl were reportedly dead in the result. This was the first reported causality of Jacobabad city. Authorities protected the city by diverting the flood towards Jafarabad via Sim Shakh and cutting the bypass.
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Flood in Jafarabd Naseerabad and Jhal Magsi
North eastern Parts of Jafarabad District are entirely swept away. After the breach of Patfeeder canal Banks, Jani Beri, Adam Khan Village, Nodhan Hyywani, Arbaw Hayywani, Ramaizai village, Bitti lower, Gornari, Panhwar Sanhri, and Haji Jumal Bugti villages are still underwater. Areas of Uch, Manjhipur, Nabi Bakhash Khoso village, Suhbatpur, Bhand are ruind entirely by the combined waters of hill torrents and Patfeeder canal. A tranche of this water entered the shallow lands of Jacobabad while the second headed towards Dera Allah Yar City.
Dera Allah Yar City got hit by both the flooding waters from Jacobabad via Sim Shakh and the floods from Dera Bugti via Suhbatpur. The water level inside city rose to the height of eight feet and destroyed the city. Six feet of water level is still prevailing in certain areas of city after two weeks of flood. This water headed further southwards and joined the waters from Jacobabad at bypass. Ruining southren parts of district including Rojhan Jamali, Cattle farm, Hyderbagh and Usta Muhammad flood entered Jhal Magsi District. Hill torents from Southern hills of Kahan hit Their, Khairwah, Lehri and joined the torrents of north western parts of Dera Bugti at Chater. Water accumulated at shallow parts of Shahpur, Notal, Shori and Data settlements. Water pool stretches from Dera Murad Jamali to Shori till the parts of Ghari Khairo , Jacobabad District. Hill torrents from Sibi and Kalat Districts ruined Muhammad Aulia and Shoran villages in Sibi. The same torrents entered in upper parts of Jhal Magsi district damaging settlements of Gandavah and Abad. From Abad till Ghaibi dero Shahdad Kot a vast water pool is still present with no signs of human settlements anymore.
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Reported Loss of Life, Live Stock
Reported Loss of Life during August 23- August 31 S# 1. 2. 3. Name , S/D/W of Menha S/o Kamalhan Banri w/o Saido Basra D/o Rindo Age 08months 65 years 32 years Cause Huse Collapse Area Sham, Kohlu Sham, Kohlu Karpasi , Kohlu Gurandani, Kohlu Gurandan, Kohlu Gurandani, Kohlu Janatali, Kohlu Siah Aaf , Dera Bugti Siah Aaf, Dera Bugti Khishari, Dera Bugti Khishari, Dera Bugti Khishari, Dera Bugti Khishari, Dera Bugti Kot Haibat DG Khan Gaji Raakh, DG Khan Khaten, Dera Bugti Khaten, Dera Bugti Khaten, Dera Bugti Lagh Patti, Kohlu Lagh Patti , Kohlu Bitti , Dera Bugti
House Collapse During Delivery 4. Birahim S/o Khalqo 04 years Diarrhea 5. Yousuf S/o Rahmdil 03 years Diarrhea 6. Sazin D/o Miran 2.5 years Diarrhea 7. Sawzo S/o Jamal 9 years Drowned 8. Pairoz S/o Hameed 3 years House Collapse 9. Rehmat S/o Jani 72 years Acute suffering 10. Muzzo D/o Bago 9 months Diarrhea 11. Bairuman S/o Sabzali 16 months Diarrhea 12. Jewan S/o Khairjan 22 months Diarrhea 13. Bhawlan S/o Hakeemo 69 years Cholera 14. Hadeh S/o Balakhsher 12 years Drowned 15. Musa S/o Karam Khan 50 years House Collapse 16. Imran S/o Manzoor 13 months Diarrhea 17. Bhar Khan S/o Karimo 2 years Diarrhea 18. Mian Dad S/o Fazaldin 20 months Diarrhea 19. Qalandar S/o Bashir 4 years Diarrhea 20. Jaro S/o Sherdil 3 years Diarrhea 21. Roshan S/o Sakhi Dad 48 years Lightning *These are reported causalities, actual figures may be higher.
Reported Loss of Live Stock during August 23- August 31 S# 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Animals Goats Sheep Goats Goats Goats Cow Cow No. of Animals 23 12 25 28 13 2 5 Miran Miran Hasilan Zahro Rahimo Arsala Haji Ramzan Owner Area Janatali, Kohlu Janatali, Kohlu Dasht goran-Dera Bugti Biti- Dera Bugti Thank- Kohlu Singsilah Dera Bugti Mir Darbar- Dera Bugti
*It may be noticed that 9 years old Nephew of Miran, Master Sawzo S/o Jamal also got drowned along his beasts in Janatali area of Kohlu.
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Summary of Damages till September 27, 2012
S#
Region
Persons Died 02 15 09 01 12 08 22 03 132
Persons Injured 241 18 0 0 -
Persons Affected 616623 177240 18260 11657 33168 365435 138408 20132
Houses Damaged Fully Partially 2934 3320 476 392 100 700 1541 5550 189 873 135 600
Villages Affected 103 218 603 592 372 -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Dera Ghazi Khan Rajanpur Kohlu Barkhan Dera Bugti Jaffarabad Naseerabad Jhal Magsi Floating in water
Area Affected (Acres) 357698 643462 -
Crop Affected (Acres) 48250 346981 3543 2629 1156 191799 141075 1156
Cattles perished 2914 2302 567 4530 860 1252 632
Only Reported Causalities are recorded in this chart Area Affected and Crop Affected are calculated approximately Dead bodies found floating in water were not identified
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Flood Warning Warning System Flood warning system in the area under study never been well defined. They still are not. After the previous mega flood of 2010, a handsome amount of funds have been issued by the Governments on both provincial and federal levels, but in an absolute corrupt system all the funds went to the personal pockets of officials concerned. Pakistan Metrological department issued the following warnings of Moderate flood in Dera Ghazi Khan only. While other affected areas remained out of radar. Flood Forecast Pakistan Metrological Department July 13, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:02 Dated:Friday, July 13, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1830PST of 13-07-2012 to 0430PST of 14-07-2012 Time of issue: 1710 PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Minister, Water and Power, Islamabad Secretary, Water and Power, Islamabad NDMA, Islamabad FFC, Islamabad DG PMD, Islamabad GHQ, Rawalpindi PDMA, Punjab DCO, D.G Khan DCO, Rajanpur Others concerned
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July 14, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:03 Dated:Saturday, July 14, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1830PST of 14-07-2012 to 0530PST of 15-07-2012. Time of issue: 1730 PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Minister, Water and Power, Islamabad Secretary,Water and Power , Islamabad NDMA, Islamabad FFC, Islamabad DG PMD, Islamabad GHQ, Rawalpindi PDMA, Punjab DCO, D.G Khan DCO, Rajanpur
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July 15, 2012 GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:04 Dated:Sunday, July 15, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1930PST of 15-07-2012 to 0500PST of 16-07-2012. Time of issue: 1825PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Minister, Water and Power, Islamabad Secretary, Water and Power , Islamabad NDMA, Islamabad FFC, Islamabad GHQ, Rawalpindi DG PMD, Islamabad PDMA, Punjab DCO, D.G Khan DCO, Rajanpur Others concerned
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July 20, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:05 Dated:Friday, July 20, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1830PST of 20-07-2012 to 0630PST of 21-07-2012. Time of issue: 1710PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Minister, Water and Power, Islamabad Secretary, Water and Power, Islamabad NDMA, Islamabad FFC, Islamabad GHQ, Rawalpindi DG PMD, Islamabad PDMA, Punjab DCO, D.G Khan DCO, Rajanpur Others concerned
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July 26, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:06 Dated:Thursday, July 26, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1930PST of 26-07-2012 to 0530PST of 27-07-2012. Time of issue: 1815PST
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July 27, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:07 Dated:Friday, July 27, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 2130PST of 27-07-2012 to 0630PST of 28-07-2012. Time of issue: 2045 PST
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed August 10, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:10 Dated:Friday, August 10, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 2000PST of 10-08-2012 to 0500PST of 11-08-2012. Time of issue: 1930PST
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August 15, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:11 Dated:Wednesday, August 15, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1930PST of 15-08-2012 to 0530PST of 16-08-2012. Time of issue: 1820PST
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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:14 Dated:Thursday, August 23, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1530PST of 23-08-2012 to 2100PST of 23-08-2012. Time of issue: 1400 PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Chairman, NDMA, Islamabad Chairman, FFC, Islamabad GHQ, Rawalpindi PDMA, Punjab DCO, D.G Khan DCO, Rajanpur
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August 23, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:15 Dated:Thursday, August 23, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Our previous Flood Warning for Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1530PST of 23-08-2012 to 2100PST of 23-08-2012 is further extended upto 1000 PST of 24-08-2012 Time of issue: 2105PST
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed First Warning of August 26, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:16 Dated:Sunday, August 26, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur District and their surrounding areas during 0500PST of 26-08-2012 to 1400PST of 26-08-2012. Time of issue: Sunday, 0400PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. Chairman,NDMA,Islamabad 2. Chairman, FFC, Islamabad 3. GHQ, Rawalpindi 4. PDMA, Punjab 5. DCO, G.G Khan 6. DCO, Rajanpur
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Second Warning of August 26, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:17 Dated:Sunday, August 26, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1530PST of 26-08-2012 to 2100PST of 26-08-2012 Time of issue: 1500PST
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed August 27, 2012 GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:18 Dated:Monday, August 27, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1700PST of 27-08-2012 to 0300PST of 28-08-2012 Time of issue: 1605PST
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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:19 Dated:Tuesday, August 28, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1900PST of 28-08-2012 to 0500PST of 29-08-2012. Time of issue: 1706PST
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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:20 Dated:Friday, August 31, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 1830PST of 31-08-2012 to 0100PST of 01-09-2012 Time of issue: 1800PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Islamabad NDMA, Islamabad GHQ, Rawalpindi Chairman Chairman, FFC PDMA, Punjab DCO, D.G Khan DCO, Rajanpur
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed September 05, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:21 Dated:Wednesday, September 05, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 2200 PST of 05-09-2012 to 0800PST of 06-09-2012. Time of issue: 2015 PST
(Duty Forecasting Officer) For Chief Meteorologist 042-99200139, 99205367 Distribution: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. Chairman, NDMA, Islamabad 2. Chairman, FFC, Islamabad 3. GHQ, Rawalpindi 4. PDMA, Punjab 5. DCO, D.G Khan 6. DCO, Rajanpur
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed September 06, 2012
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE Sr.No.:22 Dated:Thursday, September 06, 2012 SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST Moderate flooding is likely in hill torrents of D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts and their surrounding areas during 2100PST of 06-09-2012 to 0600PST of 07-09-2012. Time of issue: 1905PST
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed The Standards
Criteria for an effective warning system The necessary steps in implementing an effective warning system include determining the appropriate level of protection to be afforded by the system, possible funding strategies, determining responsible agencies and their relevant obligations, establishing an effective chain of command, and drawing up a preparedness plan with the participation of all involved officials. Despite the sophistication of the prediction network, if planning for the flood hazard does not include careful consideration of warning dissemination, warning content, and other variables that influence response to the warnings, the system may foil its major purpose: safe evacuation of vulnerable areas. Design Parameters Of practical importance in the design of a warning system are the variables related to the characteristics of the warning. These include the reliability of the detection network, the credibility of the warning, the nature of the communication mode, the content of the message, confirmation of the warning, the number of warnings received, and the public awareness of the hazard. Other important variables include the presence of physical evidence that a potential for flooding does exist, e.g. heavy rainfall, or history of flooding. Another important variable is the type and attitude of the group a person is in when the warning is received. Personality traits may influence response but are difficult to anticipate in a warning system. Past experience with minor flooding may hinder a person's response to a major event, such as flash flood disasters. The elderly and low and high socio-economic level groups tend to respond less adaptively to warnings than other age and social status groups. In a number of disasters the elderly have formed a disproportionately large number of the victims. In the devastating flood 2012, elders were among the early victims. Establishment of a comprehensive warning system to the flash flood problem may be separated into two general categories--pre-disaster planning of a warning system and implementation of the system when a flood is imminent. The first category would include public education and emergency preparedness. The second category would include flood prediction, official response to possible flooding, evacuation decision, and warning dissemination to the public and post-flood activities. In the eve of Devastating flood 2012, all the standard parameters were criminally neglected. Pre-Flood Preparedness As a principle Effective decision-making in a flash flood situation is related to the extent of preparedness planning. This involves the development and practice of emergency procedures for a flash flood situation. The key to an effective preparedness plan is the regular maintenance and updating of the various components. This would include regular contact between its members, periodic practices of the plan, the updating of personnel and telephone lists, and the maintenance of rain and stream monitoring equipment. Schedules and criteria for making important decisions should be specified. Responsibility for making the various decisions should be delegated. But in this unfortunate case nothing has been done in the name of Pre-Flood preparedness. Both the officials and media remained inactive. Flood Prediction The prime objectives of a fully integrated flood prediction system are to estimate the magnitude and expected lead times of the flood, i.e. the amount of time between the first warning (or prediction) of a flood and its arrival. Several aspects of the network are particularly important. The system must be reliable. No one will be warned by official sources if the network fails to detect the flood, or fails to transmit the data to the proper officials. If the credibility of the network is low, i.e. if it has a high
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed false alarm rate, it will be found that both officials and citizens will trust the system less and less and the warnings will become less effective. A reliable and credible warning system should be able to distinguish to some extent between the more frequent events and the more severe floods. This would enable evacuation of only the areas likely to be flooded and prevent over-warning which would be detrimental to later warning efforts. All data provided by the prediction network should be channeled to a central body where officials can interpret the incoming data. Based on this information, the warning agency must decide whether or not to issue a warning. To insure an objective decision, public officials should be freed from responsibility for the consequences of a false alarm. Subsequent warning activities will have to be carried out within the time limits determined by the physical event and the detection network. Several levels of warning may be used: (1) an alert notifies the appropriate emergency personnel of the potential danger (but it is not disseminated to the public); (2) a watch is disseminated to the public and indicates meteorological conditions in the area are conducive to a flood event; and (3) a warning tells everyone that flooding is imminent or occurring. If the lead time is short, the warning may not be preceded by both a watch and an alert. Warnings from official sources have been found to encourage a more adaptive response than those from unofficial sources. Flood plain occupants will typically seek to confirm the first warning they receive. This may involve calling official sources, checking radio and television stations, or finding out what friends and neighbors are doing. Warnings disseminated through personal communication modes such as telephones, Loud Speakers, personal contact are found to be much more effective than the impersonal modes. Warnings should be issued repeatedly and an indication of the number of warnings should be given. The warnings should be disseminated through as many channels as possible. Large establishments in the hazard zone such as schools, hospitals, and major offices should be directly linked into the warning network. With the initial warnings, any roads into the potential hazard area should be blocked as a precaution against population entering the danger zone. If the lead time provided by the network is sufficient, the content of the warnings can encourage some emergency flood proofing measures without undue risk to life. All these standards are studied by the officials in Pakistan too, but they really do not realize their responsibility. The pain of sorrowful families does not jolt the arrogant statues. A flood in the result of long duration rainfall allows enough time to take precautionary measures. State machinery could be mobilized to hazard zones. Raising the torrent banks, opening water escape routes and raising protection walls of towns would do much better. Once again all this needs sense and sincere efforts which are seldom found in Pakistani officials.
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Warning Response in Flood 2012 In fact there was no any warning at all. But in Dera Ghazi Khan Region despite more than a dozen of warnings issued by Pakistan Metrological Department, authorities failed to respond rationally. Even after the heavy rains an EX-Nazim of Dera Ghazi Khan complained we had trouble to convince the authorities that the flood is coming up. The problem here was other priorities of authorities than saving human lives Even at eleventh hour, any efficient attempt to evacuate could have saved many precious lives. The system totally failed to realize the magnitude of disaster and react accordingly.
Post Flood Response Response of Pakistan as a State Pakistani inept state never bothered about the Baloch nation. Provincial Governors and Chief Ministers could not visit the flood affected areas for a week, while Prime minister came to Balochistan for 15 minutes after 10 days of the flood. Response of Pakistani Media Response of Pakistani media to such a tragic disaster may be gauged by their air time dedicated to the event. Despite news tickers no any media channel bothered to air any program for the flood affected people till date. Response of NGOs Government of Balochistan officially restricted all the NGOs for any work in flood affected areas. While Sindh and Punjab Governments made requests to international donors to work in their respective areas. The Road and Railways Departments The roads and railway tracks are still under water, responsible departments are waiting for the release of emergency funds. Health Department Health departments of Sindh and Punjab have established a few camps in the flood affected areas while in Balochistan people are at their own to fight the nature. Irrigation Department Irrigation department is primarily responsible to repair the canal banks , but due to insufficient funds they are also out of scene.
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Devastating Floods in Baloch Areas (Pakistani Occupied Territory) A Disaster Unaddressed Needs Approximately 1.5 million people are affected by the flood 2012, in the Baloch areas of these 8 districts. There are serious emergency needs, especially in food, nutrition, wash, health and shelter sectors. Description of most acute humanitarian needs Protection In disaster-affected areas, people require protection and access to humanitarian assistance; key challenges include ensuring that beneficiaries who do not possess any form of identification document can access assistance, facilitating inclusive needs based community management, and addressing factors restricting access of women and marginalized groups to assistance. Nutrition There is a critical need for effective surveillance, detection and timely treatment of acute malnutrition amongst disaster affected populations while at the same time advocating for long term solutions to address chronic/structural deficiencies and needs. Water, Sanitation & Hygiene Access to and provision of safe drinking water, safe water storage and effective sanitation arrangements are central issues in all natural disaster and conflict affected areas. The prevention of epidemics requires targeted hygiene education and provision of hygiene kits and remains an issue for those affected by the flood. Food Assistance and Livelihood Recovery For flood affected communities, displacement has multiple impacts including lost income and employment opportunities, lost food stocks and the loss of crops, livestock and fodder. There is a dire need of food assistance at top priority. Emergency Shelter Those displaced by the flood do require immediate emergency shelter to protect them from acute weather conditions. Setting up relief camps In flood affected areas is difficult due to the unavailability of dry land; people are reluctant to move to camps far from their homes. Almost 80% of IDPs opt for off-camp sites (with host communities) as their temporary residing place. Still there is need to setup emergency relief camps, to provide various emergency facilities at some accessible place. Safety and security As the safety ever remained first priority of human kind. So it must be ensured in any circumstances.
A thorough need assessment is needed urgently
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References
Heavy rainfall and hill torrents flood damages report of DG Khan city 2012- FRK Development organization. Geological Survey of Pakistan Journal of Meteorology- Pakistan Metrological Department vol.8, issue 15 Ramage, C., Monsoon Meteorology. International Geophysics Series, Vol. 15, 296 pp., Academic Press, San Diego, Calif. 1971. Patfeeder Canal Flood Protection Study-Irrigation Department GOB Flood Forecasting Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department Reports of Nari Bashkia Dera Bugti Reports of Hazooro Kahan Reports of Rustum Sakhi Sarwar Geo News, 10-09-2012 Response to disaster- Pak response, September 18, 2012 The Express Tribune- September 14, 2012 Daily Tawar - Mastung Balochistan Daily Intekhab Quetta Balochistan Daily Kawish Hyderabad Sindh Daily Sindhu Hyderabad Sindh Daily Jang Lahore/ Quetta and Karachi editions Daily Dawn- September 12, 2012 Awaz News Hyderabad Sindh KTN Hyderabad Sindh Sindh News Hyderabad Sindh IRSA- Telemetry records Pakistan Today September 11, 2012 STP Jacobabad September 14, 2012 The News International September 15, 2012 World Food Program Pakistan Chapter Global Crises Management Pakistan Chapter National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1977, Flash Flood Preparedness Planning Guide, H. James Owens. The Differential Distribution of Death in Disaster: A Test of Theoretical Propositions", Hutton, J.R. Paper presented at Joint Meeting of the Society for the Study of Social Problems and the American Sociological Association, New York, 1976. Natural Hazards Research Working Paper 32. Boulder: University of Colorado Institute of Behavioral Science, 1977.
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