Commodities Evening Update

Friday | October 5, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | October 5, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis BOJ keeps the overnight call rate steady around 0-0.1. LME copper inventories decline 0.32% in todays session. German Factory Orders declined to 1.3 percent in August. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5815.00 19115.89 8850.29 2004.62 15591.67 High 5815.35 19137.29 8880.23 2007.84 15701.13

as at 4.30 pm 5 October12
Low 4888.20 18757.34 8805.79 1991.21 15523.30 Last 5746.95 18938.46 8863.30 1995.17 15523.30 % Chg from Prev day -0.70 -0.63 0.44 0.12 1.04
Source: Reuters

European equities are trading on a positive note ahead of positive US payroll data policy meeting. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading in the green. The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1. But it refrained from further stimulus package owing to political opposition. Spot gold prices are trading on flat note at around $1,788 per ounce. However, since the beginning of the session gold prices had witnessed firmness on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets and weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX) But, with DX trading on a positive note has erased earlier gains in the gold prices. MCX Gold prices gained 0.6 percent taking cues from strength in the spot gold prices. However, Depreciation in the Indian Rupee also supported an upside in the MCX gold prices today. Spot silver prices declined 0.2 percent today taking cues from weakness in the base metals pack. Additionally, strength in the DX also acted as a bearish factor for the spot silver prices. In the domestic markets silver prices are trading higher as a result of depreciation in the Indian rupee and are currently hovering around Rs.62,420/ kg till 4:30 p.m Base metal prices swung between gains and losses and are currently trading lower before the US jobs data and the unemployment rate. Additonally strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the base metals pack. However, decline in the LME inventories cushioned sharp fall in the the base metal prices today. Copper prices fell 0.2 percent and are currently hovering around $8,298/ tonne. Nymex crude oil prices declined 1 percent today after gaining in yesterdays session as sufficient supplies surpass demand along with strength in the DX. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.1 percent on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and are currently hovering around Rs. 4,726/bbl till 4:30 today.

as at 4.30 pm 5 October12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 79.48 1.3017 51.73 High 79.53 1.3022 51.96 Low 79.415 1.2992 51.35 Current 79.475 1.301 51.90 % Chg from Prev day 0.04 -0.05 0.31
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 5 October12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Dec12 MCX Gold Dec12 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec12 MCX Silver Dec12 Crude Oil Nymex Nov 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Oct12 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov12 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Oct12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Oct12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Oct12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Oct12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1790.29 1792.20 30847.00 34.95 35.05 62250 91.51 112.45 4721 8316.00 433.90 2080.00 106.50 2295 117.85 18675 967.00 2120.00 108.75

1795.69 1792.20 30942.00 35.08 34.15 62450 91.62 112.78 4757 8342.00 436.00 2083.00 107.00 2299 118.20 18718 973.60 2125.00 109.20

1787.54 1788.60 30800.00 34.81 34.88 62250 90.67 111.48 4721 8274.00 433.90 2052.50 106.00 2260 117.20 18595 966.00 2106.25 108.70

1788.84 1788.80 30920.00 34.87 34.92 62420 90.74 111.66 4726 8298.00 435.85 2063.00 106.45 2268 117.55 18685 972.10 2109.00 108.95

0.02 -0.30 0.64 -0.17 -0.21 0.51 -1.06 -0.82 0.11 -0.20 0.61 -0.60 0.28 -0.99 0.00 -0.08 0.68 -0.52 0.41

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | October 5, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook

In todays evening session, we expect precious and base metals prices to remain volatile before the US jobs data in the evening today. However, the global markets are trading on a upbeat note which might increase risk appetite amongst the markets participants and thereby pressurize DX which is currently trading on a flat note. Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to rise while unemployment rate from the US is expected to increase. Rise in the risk aversion might be witnessed if unemployment rate from US comes on a higher note causing demand for the low yielding currency to increase thereby pressurizing commodity prices. Crude oil prices would however trade with negative bias on the back of sufficient supplies.

Technical Outook for evening session 5 October12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Dec'12 Spot Gold Silver Dec12 Spot Silver Crude Oil Oct '12 Nymex Crude Oil Nov12 Natural Gas Oct12 LME Copper Copper Nov'12 Zinc Oct12 Lead Oct12 Aluminum Oct12 Nickel Oct12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 31089 1778 61770 34.31 4637 89 173.3 8210 430.5 104.65 115.6 107.7 958 Support 1 31171 1785 62200 34.62 4687 90.4 176.6 8262 433.1 105.4 116.55 108.1 965 CMP 31276 1789.6 62438 34.88 4730 90.81 177.2 8301 436 106.55 117.65 108.9 971.6 Resistance1 31390 1798 62546 35.17 4771 92.9 180.3 8360 437.2 107.55 118.4 109.45 974.2 Resistance 2 31481 1805 62987 35.41 4821 94.35 183.4 8408 441.2 108.95 119.4 110.2 983

Important Events for Today

Indicator Bank Holiday Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate BOJ Press Conference German Factory Orders m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m

Country China Japan Japan Japan Euro US US US

Time (IST) All Day 8:44 am 8:44 am 12:57 pm 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm

Actual <0.10% -1.3% -

Forecast <0.10% -0.4% 115K 8.2% 0.2%

Previous <0.10% 0.5% 96K 8.1% 0.0%

Impact High High High Medium High High Medium