Market Outlook 8.10.12

Market Outlook
October 8, 2012
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a negative bias. The SGX Nifty is
trading marginally in the red. Most of the Asian markets are trading in the negative
zone.
The US markets finished mixed on Friday after reacting positively in early trade to the
monthly jobs report. The report showed that employment in the US increased by
114,000 jobs in September, roughly in line with the increase expected by economists. In
the bond market, treasuries came under pressure on the heels of the upbeat jobs data.
BSE Sensex
(0.6)
Nifty
(0.7)
(41.1)
5,747
MID CAP
(0.8)
(52.2)
6,679
SMALL CAP
(0.9)
(65.3)
7,146
BSE HC
(1.4)
(104.9)
7,427
BSE PSU
(0.3)
(24.3)
7,528
BANKEX
(1.1)
(144.9) 13,212
AUTO
0.6
57.9 10,493
METAL
(0.2)
(25.6) 10,606
Meanwhile key benchmark indices in India snapped their four-day winning streak on
Friday as investors resorted to profit booking after the rally. The BSE Sensex fell below
the psychological 19,000 mark, a day after surpassing the level on Thursday, 4
October 2012. The markets remained weak throughout after they opened marginally in
the green in opening trade. The markets declined despite the second round of reforms
announced by the government with respect to the pension and insurance sectors. The
trading in NSE cash segment was affected due to an erroneous trade which lead to the
trigger of circuit filter.
OIL & GAS

BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones
(Pts)
(Close)
(119.5) 18,938
0.4
36.2
8,852
(1.6)
(97.1)
5,911
(Pts)
(Close)
Chg (%)
0.3
34.8 13,610
(0.4)
(13.3)
3,136
FTSE
0.7
43.2
5,871
Nikkei
0.4
38.7
8,863
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,944 / 5,484 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,131 19,324 / 6,079 6,411 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,944 / 5,484 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,751 18,564 / 5,152 4,556 levels.
Hang Seng
0.5
Straits Times
0.7
21.2
3,108
Shanghai Com
1.5
29.9
2,086
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
INFY
(1.8)
(0.9)
$48.8
SENSEX
18,564
18,751
18,944
19,131
19,324
WIT
(2.2)
(0.2)
$9.0
NIFTY
4,556
5,152
5,484
6,079
6,411
IBN
(1.3)
(0.5)
$41.4
HDB
(1.3)
(0.5)
$38.8
Markets Today
News Analysis
Supreme Court order ban mining in Goa

RBI may invite applications for banking licenses later this month
Net Inflows (October 04, 2012)

Purch
Sales
FII
3,244
645
MFs
Net
MTD
YTD
2,270
974
22,544
65,810
977
(332)
(3,284)
(10,463)
FII Derivatives (October 05, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,958
2,574
(616)
16,049
Stock Futures
1,606
2,039
(434)
30,132
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Price (`)
Losers
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
3,801
(6.7)
45
(6.1)
Essar oil
61
15.4
Shree cem
Educomp
176
6.9
IVRCL
chg (%)
Indiabulls Real
67
5.5
HDFC
750
(4.9)
Crompton grea
140
5.2
Bajaj Finserve
915
(4.1)
Gitanjali gems
367
4.9
Amtek Auto
88
(3.9)
www.angelbroking.com
Indian ADRs
Advances / Declines
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
` cr
NASDAQ
Chg (%)
104.4 21,012
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,695
896
Declines
1,261
579
116
63
Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
5,442
NSE
19,927
Market Outlook
October 8, 2012
Supreme Court order ban mining in Goa

The Supreme Court (SC) ordered a blanket ban on the extraction and
transportation of the iron ore in Goa and also formed a Centrally Empowered
Committee (CEC) which will submit its report within four weeks after examining the
illegalities in this sector. This development is an outcome of the move by the state
government which had last month put a ban across all the 93 mines in Goa. We
therefore await further clarity on this matter and maintain our Neutral view on
Sesa Goa and Sterlite.
RBI may invite applications for banking licenses later this

month
According to media sources, RBI may come out with the final guidelines for new
banks and invite applications for banking licenses later this month. RBI is expected
to offer licenses for four new banks, as per the reports. The RBI has only issued two
new banking licenses since 2000, to Yes Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Issuances of new licenses are expected to increase the competitiveness within the
banking sector and also aid in increasing the financial inclusiveness in the country.
Economic and Political News
DoT says no to raising ceiling on FDI in telecom to 100%

CCI chairman rubbishes retail FDI concerns
Corporate News
Godrej Properties gives up plan to buy HDILs Bangalore plot

RIL refuses to follow D6 gas swap order
Videocon sues Fitch unit over rating action
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
October 10, 2012
IndusInd Bank
October 11, 2012

October 12, 2012
Infosys, HDFC Bank
October 13, 2012

October 14, 2012
October 15, 2012
LMW
October 16, 2012

October 17, 2012
HCL Tech
October 18, 2012
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Persistent
October 19, 2012
Mundra Port, Adani Power, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment
October 20, 2012
M&M, Bajaj Auto
October 21, 2012

October 22, 2012
HDFC
October 23, 2012
Hero Motocorp
October 24, 2012

October 25, 2012
Asian Paints
October 26, 2012
ICICI Bank, Dabur India
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Oct 9 2012 12:00AM
UK
Last Reported
Estimated
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
(0.80)
(1.10)
Oct 11 2012 12:00AM US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Oct 6
367.00
365.00
Oct 12 2012 12:00AM US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
1.70
0.70
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
0.10
--
Exports YoY%
Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.70
5.50
% Change
Sep
7.55
--
% Change
Sep
2.00
1.90
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.50
--
Sep
2.60
--
India
Oct 13 2012 12:00AM China
Oct 15 2012 12:00AM India
China
Oct 16 2012 12:00AM UK
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
US
Industrial Production
Sep
(1.16)
--
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.60
0.50
Housing Starts
Thousands
Sep
750.00
--
US
Building permits
Thousands
Sep
801.00
--
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Sep
(15.00)
--
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Sep
8.90
9.00
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
7.60
7.50
Millions
Sep
4.82
--
Value
Oct A
(25.90)
--
Value
Oct A
49.70
--
Oct 17 2012 12:00AM US
Oct 18 2012 12:00AM China

China
Oct 19 2012 12:00AM US
Oct 23 2012 12:00AM Euro Zone
Oct 24 2012 12:00AM Germany
Existing home sales

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Services
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
US
New home sales
US
FOMC rate decision
Bloomberg Data
Value
Oct A
47.40
--
Thousands
Sep
373.00
--
Oct 24
0.25
--
Market Strategy
October 08, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.0
9.2
9.0
8.5
9.0
8.2
7.5
8.0
6.0
8.0
7.6
6.0
6.7
7.0
6.1
5.7
5.3 5.5
5.0
2.0
(6.0)
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
(1.8)
(5.0)
60.0
9.9
(1.3)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
10.0
Dec-11
Nov-11
(2.8)
(4.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
6.9
7.6
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Sep-11
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
48.0
Dec-11
50.0
0.0
Nov-11
2.0
Oct-11
52.0
Sep-11
4.0
Oct-11
54.0
6.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
60.0
(%)
9.00
45.0
8.00
30.0
7.00
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
4.50
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Sep-11
(30.0)
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
0.0
Sep-12
15.0
(15.0)
Oct-11
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Sep-11
(2.0)
10.0
0.1
1.0
3.5
3.0
12.0
2.7
2.5
Oct-11
4.0
2.5
4.3
3.4
Aug-11
6.0
4.0
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
147
2,864
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
21.0
18.2
4.5
3.8
22.6
22.5
2.0
1.7
United Phosphorus
Buy
132
170
6,099
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
8.8
7.8
1.3
1.1
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
224
3,833
2,844
3,275
15.4
15.6
15.9
18.8
14.1
11.9
3.6
2.9
28.9
26.9
1.2
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
90
99
4,521
13,412
15,041
11.3
11.0
12.1
14.2
7.4
6.3
1.3
1.1
19.6
19.2
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
30
6,572
14,920
16,850
9.0
9.3
2.2
2.8
11.3
9.0
2.1
1.8
13.3
15.6
0.5
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
381
576
993
1,140
11.6
11.5
36.9
43.0
10.3
8.9
2.0
1.8
21.2
21.3
0.7
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,751
50,670
21,285
23,927
18.2
18.3
108.5
121.3
16.1
14.4
6.7
5.4
46.1
41.3
2.1
1.8
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
310
351
7,205
7,004
7,985
16.2
16.4
20.3
25.1
15.2
12.4
2.8
2.4
20.0
20.9
1.2
1.0
Bosch India*
Neutral
8,771
27,539
8,793
10,294
17.4
18.5
348.3
435.8
25.2
20.1
4.9
4.0
19.4
20.1
2.8
2.3
CEAT
Buy
112
164
382
4,989
5,634
8.7
8.5
32.7
41.1
3.4
2.7
0.5
0.4
15.8
16.9
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
152
12,907
5,913
6,787
16.0
17.0
7.4
9.2
20.6
16.5
3.7
3.1
19.1
20.3
1.9
1.6
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,681
2,793
1,505
1,768
17.5
18.0
111.2
132.7
15.1
12.7
3.1
2.6
22.8
22.2
1.7
1.4
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,811
2,077
36,158
24,941
28,706
15.0
15.5
122.5
134.0
14.8
13.5
6.5
5.1
49.6
42.2
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
109
135
447
7,517
8,329
6.1
6.3
26.2
38.5
4.2
2.8
0.5
0.5
13.4
17.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
869
944
53,358
37,434
42,860
11.6
11.5
50.4
56.3
17.3
15.4
3.6
3.1
22.6
21.5
1.2
1.0
Maruti
Neutral
1,388
40,111
41,796
49,350
7.6
8.6
66.6
92.6
20.9
15.0
2.4
2.1
12.0
14.8
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
161
9,476
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
20.0
15.2
4.2
3.4
22.9
24.7
0.5
0.5
Subros
Buy
29
34
175
1,230
1,378
8.8
8.6
4.5
5.7
6.5
5.1
0.6
0.6
9.8
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
280
316
74,716 195,096 219,428
12.8
13.0
39.0
44.9
7.2
6.2
2.1
1.6
32.6
28.8
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
45
49
2,143
7,611
8,443
7.9
7.9
4.7
5.4
9.6
8.3
1.6
1.4
17.9
18.1
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
789
593
16,721
8,760
10,023
6.2
8.7
14.5
24.7
54.6
31.9
6.0
5.2
11.6
17.6
1.9
1.7
BGR Energy
Neutral
287
2,071
3,669
4,561
11.0
11.0
24.7
29.6
11.6
9.7
1.7
1.6
15.3
16.7
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
263
64,409
47,801
43,757
19.0
18.8
25.3
22.8
10.4
11.5
3.2
2.7
34.3
25.3
1.1
1.2
Blue Star
Neutral
217
1,951
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
12.5
16.2
17.4
13.4
4.2
3.4
26.1
28.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
140
141
8,952
12,691
14,126
7.4
8.9
7.0
9.7
20.0
14.4
2.3
2.1
11.9
15.0
0.7
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
50
54
414
2,622
2,744
10.7
10.5
9.6
12.2
5.3
4.1
0.6
0.5
10.8
12.3
0.4
0.3
KEC International
Accumulate
70
78
1,791
6,858
7,431
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.8
8.4
7.1
1.4
1.2
25.1
24.0
0.4
0.4
LMW
Neutral
2,023
2,279
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
14.1
12.2
2.4
2.2
17.4
18.4
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
578
6,886
5,514
5,559
8.9
10.2
26.9
30.3
21.5
19.1
3.7
3.3
18.4
18.2
1.1
1.0
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,458
27,370
10,964
12,417
21.6
21.5
76.9
82.2
19.0
17.7
3.6
3.2
19.5
19.1
2.2
1.9
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
216
33,263
10,163
11,729
25.4
24.9
11.2
12.5
19.4
17.3
4.1
3.7
20.3
20.5
2.7
2.2
India Cements
Neutral
93
2,864
4,354
4,929
18.6
18.7
9.8
12.3
9.5
7.6
0.8
0.8
8.6
10.2
1.1
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
109
1,332
1,964
2,278
19.5
20.4
16.3
17.9
6.7
6.1
1.0
0.9
14.7
14.6
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
193
4,600
3,608
3,928
27.6
27.0
15.7
18.3
12.3
10.6
1.9
1.7
16.9
17.0
1.9
1.6
Shree Cements^
Neutral
3,801
13,240
5,630
6,187
29.6
27.9
222.5
259.3
17.1
14.7
3.9
3.2
25.3
23.8
1.9
1.5
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,982
54,312
20,913
23,530
21.3
22.7
93.2
110.5
21.3
17.9
3.6
3.1
18.4
18.7
2.5
2.3
242
304
1,274
2,034
2,315
22.4
22.4
27.1
31.7
8.9
7.6
1.1
1.0
13.1
13.4
1.8
2.1
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
15
276
2,262
2,522
6.7
7.5
1.5
2.7
10.0
5.6
0.4
0.4
4.4
7.5
0.4
0.4
Hind. Const.
Neutral
19
1,143
4,239
4,522
9.9
11.2
(2.3)
(1.0)
(8.4)
(19.6)
1.0
1.2
(11.4)
(5.6)
1.2
1.2
IRB Infra
Accumulate
157
166
5,208
3,964
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.7
16.9
10.0
9.3
1.6
1.4
16.6
15.8
2.8
2.7
ITNL
Buy
192
232
3,735
6,840
7,767
26.4
26.1
24.4
30.3
7.9
6.4
1.2
1.0
16.0
16.2
2.7
2.9
IVRCL Infra
Accumulate
45
51
1,375
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
17.7
9.8
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Accumulate
89
91
18,861
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.0
4.8
22.1
18.6
1.7
1.6
8.5
9.3
2.5
2.2
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,647
1,721
101,073
60,474
69,091
12.1
11.5
79.7
85.4
20.7
19.3
3.5
3.1
16.3
15.1
1.8
1.6
Madhucon Proj
Buy
38
56
284
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
8.3
8.2
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
52
1,329
5,804
6,513
8.0
8.6
3.0
3.5
17.0
14.8
0.5
0.5
3.2
3.6
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
82
574
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
5.9
5.7
0.4
0.3
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.0
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
56
1,853
11,892
13,116
8.9
8.9
1.7
3.1
32.9
18.1
0.6
0.6
1.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
153
182
2,299
2,506
3,147
10.3
10.7
7.5
10.4
20.4
14.7
2.5
2.2
13.5
16.0
1.0
0.9
Simplex Infra
Buy
218
265
1,076
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.4
29.4
9.3
7.4
0.8
0.8
9.2
10.6
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Reduce
147
131
7,338
6,944
7,884
3.0
3.1
35.5
37.0
4.1
4.0
0.7
0.6
17.2
15.7
Andhra Bank
Reduce
Axis Bank
Buy
Bank of Baroda
Financials
111
97
6,217
4,929
5,633
3.1
3.1
23.7
24.5
4.7
4.5
0.8
0.7
16.6
15.3
1,141
1,326
47,306
15,425
18,500
3.1
3.2
115.9
137.5
9.9
8.3
1.8
1.6
19.9
20.1
Neutral
793
31,057
15,473
18,142
2.6
2.6
115.3
139.4
6.9
5.7
1.1
0.9
16.2
17.2
Bank of India
Accumulate
297
330
17,036
12,573
14,971
2.3
2.4
58.2
68.0
5.1
4.4
0.8
0.7
15.9
16.3
Bank of Maharashtra
Reduce
50
47
2,927
3,442
3,802
3.1
3.2
8.9
11.4
5.6
4.3
0.7
0.6
13.5
15.5
Canara Bank
Neutral
425
18,823
10,905
12,783
2.1
2.2
74.9
85.1
5.7
5.0
0.9
0.8
15.1
15.3
Central Bank
Neutral
77
5,679
7,095
8,102
2.5
2.7
15.6
21.0
4.9
3.7
0.8
0.7
12.2
14.7
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Neutral
416
6,167
4,886
5,669
2.1
2.2
101.3
101.8
4.1
4.1
0.7
0.6
17.0
15.1
Dena Bank
Neutral
108
3,777
3,147
3,495
2.8
2.9
24.8
24.4
4.4
4.4
0.8
0.7
18.7
15.9
Federal Bank
Neutral
457
7,815
2,593
3,009
3.2
3.2
44.9
52.5
10.2
8.7
1.2
1.1
12.8
13.5
HDFC
Neutral
750
115,409
7,340
8,805
3.5
3.5
31.5
37.8
23.8
19.8
4.8
4.2
34.8
32.2
HDFC Bank
Neutral
622
146,886
21,753
26,811
4.4
4.5
28.7
35.9
21.7
17.3
4.2
3.5
20.7
21.9
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,067
1,245
122,615
22,304
26,855
2.9
3.0
68.6
82.0
15.6
13.0
1.9
1.7
14.2
15.6
IDBI Bank
Neutral
102
13,040
7,761
9,484
1.9
2.2
17.1
22.9
6.0
4.5
0.7
0.6
11.9
14.4
Indian Bank
Reduce
192
181
8,252
6,062
6,818
3.4
3.4
40.5
41.6
4.7
4.6
0.8
0.7
18.1
16.3
IOB
Accumulate
80
83
6,408
7,343
8,391
2.5
2.5
16.0
21.3
5.0
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.3
13.6
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,021
1,021
4,948
2,600
2,850
3.6
3.5
192.3
188.0
5.3
5.4
1.0
0.9
21.0
17.7
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
270
301
13,644
1,867
2,338
2.4
2.4
21.1
28.5
12.8
9.5
2.1
1.8
17.5
20.4
Oriental Bank
Neutral
290
8,460
6,278
7,125
2.7
2.8
56.7
62.6
5.1
4.6
0.7
0.6
14.1
13.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
819
941
27,792
19,934
22,705
3.3
3.3
147.8
166.2
5.6
4.9
1.0
0.8
17.7
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Accumulate
23
25
3,098
1,535
1,760
2.9
2.8
3.5
3.9
6.6
5.9
1.1
1.0
19.5
17.1
St Bk of India
Accumulate
2,339
2,353
156,978
63,806
73,435
3.5
3.6
225.7
258.4
10.4
9.1
1.8
1.5
17.7
17.8
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
113
117
6,784
6,722
7,719
2.9
3.0
24.3
27.2
4.6
4.1
0.7
0.7
17.0
16.8
UCO Bank
Neutral
77
5,148
5,411
6,124
2.4
2.5
17.0
16.5
4.6
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.7
14.4
Union Bank
Accumulate
200
226
11,033
9,924
11,647
2.8
2.9
38.6
46.3
5.2
4.3
0.9
0.7
15.4
16.3
United Bank
Buy
63
78
2,282
3,572
4,041
2.8
2.9
17.2
22.1
3.7
2.9
0.5
0.5
14.2
16.2
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
57
2,815
2,490
2,881
2.1
2.2
9.2
11.4
6.2
5.0
0.8
0.7
11.5
13.0
Yes Bank
Buy
394
452
14,022
3,270
4,253
2.8
3.0
33.9
42.2
11.6
9.3
2.4
2.0
23.1
23.6
3,815
36,595
11,198
13,184
16.3
16.3
121.0
144.8
31.5
26.4
10.6
8.3
37.4
35.3
3.3
2.8
486
584
5,809
5,835
6,824
5.7
6.0
20.7
25.4
23.5
19.2
9.3
7.1
43.1
41.9
0.9
0.7
1,237
16,824
3,018
3,429
20.9
22.2
35.7
42.3
34.7
29.2
32.0
23.8
101.0
93.5
5.3
4.6
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
133
23,163
6,124
7,030
17.0
16.8
4.5
5.2
29.7
25.7
12.3
9.7
43.2
41.5
3.7
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,970
12,491
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
104.5
123.8
28.4
24.0
8.9
7.1
34.4
32.8
3.7
3.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
694
23,605
6,097
7,233
18.4
18.6
21.9
26.5
31.7
26.2
7.0
5.8
25.5
25.4
3.9
3.3
HUL
Neutral
565
122,040
25,350
28,974
13.9
13.9
14.3
16.5
39.6
34.3
23.6
18.1
70.9
59.8
4.4
3.8
ITC
Neutral
276
216,598
29,513
33,885
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.8
29.7
25.6
9.8
8.2
35.6
35.0
6.9
6.0
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
203
13,101
4,840
5,643
13.1
13.1
6.8
8.5
30.0
24.1
8.3
6.3
31.4
29.7
2.7
2.2
Nestle*
Neutral
4,596
44,310
8,610
10,174
20.9
21.2
114.8
139.8
40.0
32.9
24.2
16.8
71.2
60.3
5.0
4.1
Tata Global
Neutral
150
9,288
7,207
7,927
9.7
10.0
6.6
7.8
22.7
19.2
2.3
2.2
8.6
9.5
1.1
1.0
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
574
632
39,813
24,569
27,002
18.8
17.6
41.4
45.1
13.8
12.7
3.1
2.7
22.8
21.1
1.6
1.4
Hexaware*
Accumulate
117
140
3,458
1,966
2,161
22.5
21.4
11.6
12.2
10.1
9.6
2.6
2.2
26.8
23.9
1.5
1.3
Infosys
Accumulate
2,528
2,687
145,160
39,383
41,380
31.7
31.9
163.2
173.4
15.5
14.6
3.7
3.2
23.9
22.0
3.1
2.8
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
192
2,141
1,895
2,049
18.0
17.5
18.1
19.5
10.6
9.8
1.5
1.3
14.5
13.7
0.8
0.6
KPIT Cummins
Buy
120
142
2,134
2,191
2,364
16.1
16.5
11.3
13.0
10.6
9.2
2.3
1.9
21.8
20.0
1.0
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Neutral
109
12,822
7,628
8,062
19.9
18.4
9.7
10.0
11.2
10.9
3.1
2.4
27.7
22.2
1.3
1.1
Mindtree
Buy
648
772
2,650
2,334
2,481
19.5
17.6
70.4
77.2
9.2
8.4
2.1
1.7
23.3
20.4
0.9
0.8
Mphasis&
Neutral
401
8,420
5,700
5,993
18.0
16.9
37.0
37.3
10.8
10.8
1.6
1.4
14.3
12.6
1.0
0.9
NIIT
Accumulate
35
36
580
1,034
1,146
9.9
11.0
5.2
6.4
6.7
5.5
0.9
0.8
12.8
14.3
0.3
0.2
Persistent
Reduce
427
398
1,707
1,207
1,278
26.2
24.3
42.4
44.3
10.1
9.6
1.7
1.5
17.1
15.5
1.1
0.9
TCS
Accumulate
1,304
1,405
255,173
61,611
67,507
29.3
29.1
69.0
74.0
18.9
17.6
6.1
5.0
32.4
28.6
3.9
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
947
1,046
12,083
6,603
7,196
18.2
17.1
92.7
99.6
10.2
9.5
2.4
2.0
23.6
20.5
1.9
1.7
Wipro
Accumulate
374
421
92,029
43,800
48,332
19.5
19.3
25.6
28.1
14.6
13.3
2.8
2.4
18.9
17.9
1.8
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
209
236
3,829
1,604
1,786
22.3
23.8
11.2
13.7
18.7
15.3
3.5
3.1
20.3
21.4
2.2
2.0
HT Media
Buy
102
113
2,407
2,111
2,263
14.7
14.8
7.3
8.1
14.0
12.6
1.5
1.4
11.3
11.2
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
98
112
3,084
1,488
1,664
22.7
22.8
6.2
7.1
15.7
13.7
3.8
3.4
25.2
26.3
2.1
1.8
PVR
Neutral
205
533
625
732
17.4
17.1
13.3
15.6
15.4
13.1
1.7
1.5
13.2
13.8
1.2
1.0
Sun TV Network
Neutral
354
13,941
1,981
2,239
77.0
76.7
18.6
21.3
19.1
16.6
4.8
4.2
27.1
27.5
6.4
5.5
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
497
10,557
11,979
14,584
31.6
31.0
49.2
61.4
10.1
8.1
1.3
1.2
14.1
15.2
2.9
2.4
Coal India
Accumulate
363
385
229,537
69,808
75,550
27.4
27.4
26.0
28.3
14.0
12.9
4.0
3.3
32.5
28.1
2.3
2.0
Electrosteel Castings
Accumulate
20
23
694
1,984
2,074
11.2
12.6
2.5
2.9
8.1
7.0
0.4
0.2
5.1
5.7
0.5
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
136
144
57,380
12,446
13,538
52.3
52.9
14.3
15.5
9.5
8.7
1.8
1.5
20.5
18.9
2.7
2.1
Hindalco
Neutral
125
23,932
84,855
92,446
8.7
9.3
13.2
16.2
9.5
7.7
0.7
0.7
7.8
8.9
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
739
16,479
38,740
41,459
17.3
17.0
79.9
89.4
9.2
8.3
0.9
0.8
10.4
10.6
0.9
0.8
MOIL
Accumulate
255
271
4,284
918
993
50.7
50.9
24.5
26.1
10.4
9.8
1.6
1.5
16.0
15.5
2.3
2.0
Monnet Ispat
Buy
313
379
2,014
2,511
3,303
23.8
26.0
46.3
57.3
6.8
5.5
0.8
0.7
12.4
13.7
1.7
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
51
48
13,144
7,401
7,841
16.7
19.2
3.4
4.1
14.9
12.5
1.1
1.0
7.4
8.4
1.3
1.2
189
214
75,072
12,934
14,266
79.4
80.1
21.1
23.4
9.0
8.1
2.4
2.0
29.6
26.5
4.1
3.4
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Neutral
86
35,605
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
9.0
7.4
0.8
0.8
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Neutral
172
14,949
7,704
8,034
33.6
34.6
42.0
43.1
4.1
4.0
0.8
0.7
22.3
19.2
2.2
2.1
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
101
33,925
41,680
45,382
24.2
23.2
16.3
16.9
6.2
6.0
0.7
0.6
11.3
10.7
0.8
0.7
Tata Steel
Buy
410
481
39,854 145,799 150,431
10.3
11.2
48.6
63.3
8.4
6.5
0.9
0.8
10.5
12.4
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Accumulate
133
148
478
1,251
1,321
22.7
23.4
33.0
37.1
4.0
3.6
0.6
0.5
15.1
14.8
0.8
0.7
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
55
73
739
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
3.3
2.6
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.4
Buy
122
161
387
2,341
2,425
15.6
17.3
33.3
43.2
3.7
2.8
0.4
0.4
13.2
14.4
0.5
0.5
Cairn India
Accumulate
326
380
62,233
16,605
17,258
75.4
71.7
57.0
54.9
5.7
5.9
1.1
0.9
20.2
16.3
2.8
2.2
GAIL
Neutral
392
49,769
50,176
55,815
15.5
15.8
35.4
36.5
11.1
10.7
2.0
1.7
18.9
17.0
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Accumulate
287
312
245,714 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
9.4
8.9
1.6
1.5
18.3
17.2
1.4
1.2
Reliance Industries
Neutral
857
280,760 362,700 380,031
7.9
8.0
61.5
64.3
14.0
13.3
1.4
1.3
10.3
9.9
0.7
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
306
3,819
11.5
11.3
19.2
22.1
16.0
13.9
4.2
3.8
28.7
29.0
1.3
1.0
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
259
3,632
3,040
3,135
24.3
26.7
24.8
27.9
10.5
9.3
2.4
2.0
25.5
23.6
1.3
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Accumulate
159
176
11,936
29,145
33,736
6.6
6.6
14.2
16.0
11.2
10.0
2.7
2.2
26.9
24.4
0.4
0.4
82
4,617
1,041
939
91.8
91.9
8.5
7.4
9.7
11.1
1.6
1.5
18.1
14.0
5.2
5.8
Alembic Pharma
Buy
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
Aventis*
Neutral
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
Cipla
Neutral
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
3,930
3,228
70
91
1,323
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
10.6
7.7
2.7
2.1
27.9
29.9
1.0
0.8
138
156
4,029
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
11.7
11.0
1.5
1.3
17.9
16.4
1.3
1.1
2,270
5,228
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.1
104.4
23.9
21.7
4.2
3.3
18.6
17.0
3.5
3.0
821
953
16,807
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
36.0
46.1
22.8
17.8
5.4
4.3
25.8
26.8
3.1
2.6
364
29,238
8,031
9,130
23.4
22.4
18.4
20.0
19.8
18.2
3.3
2.8
17.8
16.6
3.6
3.1
1,693
1,859
28,746
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
20.2
18.2
4.2
3.5
22.4
20.8
2.9
2.6
Neutral
95
769
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
10.4
8.4
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.5
1.3
1.1
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,944
16,468
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
25.6
23.6
7.4
6.6
20.1
26.3
5.5
4.8
Indoco Remedies
Buy
67
92
618
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
9.1
7.5
1.4
1.2
16.4
17.0
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
442
5,573
2,850
3,474
20.7
20.7
29.2
36.6
15.1
12.1
3.6
2.8
26.1
26.1
2.3
1.9
Lupin
Accumulate
569
647
25,423
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.3
31.3
21.6
18.2
5.1
4.1
26.0
24.7
3.2
2.6
Orchid Chemicals
Neutral
114
800
1,667
1,835
13.9
13.9
11.4
13.3
10.0
8.5
0.6
0.6
6.6
7.3
0.9
0.8
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
529
22,346
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
31.3
29.8
16.9
17.8
5.8
4.6
39.1
28.9
1.9
1.8
Sun Pharma
Neutral
684
70,704
9,752
12,134
41.6
41.6
26.0
28.2
26.3
24.3
4.9
4.2
20.3
18.8
6.6
5.1
CESC
Neutral
332
4,145
5,218
5,644
24.2
23.8
44.6
47.6
7.4
7.0
0.8
0.7
11.0
10.6
1.6
1.6
GIPCL
Accumulate
NTPC
Neutral
Power
70
77
1,056
1,557
1,573
29.3
28.7
10.8
11.0
6.5
6.4
0.7
0.6
10.8
10.2
1.2
1.0
171
140,791
74,111
85,789
22.7
23.1
12.1
13.7
14.1
12.4
1.7
1.6
12.6
13.2
2.5
2.3
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Accumulate
80
78
2,367
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
9.5
6.3
0.6
0.5
6.3
8.9
4.5
3.4
DLF
Neutral
242
41,063
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
25.2
18.0
1.6
1.5
6.4
8.7
6.5
5.4
HDIL
Buy
109
115
4,546
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
4.8
4.1
0.4
0.4
8.8
9.4
3.5
2.7
MLIFE
Neutral
404
1,652
813
901
26.2
26.6
32.0
37.1
12.6
10.9
1.3
1.2
10.4
11.0
2.3
2.0
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
266
100,957
79,147
86,745
31.1
32.5
9.9
15.1
26.8
17.7
1.9
1.7
7.0
9.7
2.0
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
82
27,099
22,582
24,684
26.4
26.9
3.3
4.7
24.6
17.3
1.9
1.7
7.8
9.9
1.7
1.5
Rcom
Neutral
62
12,745
20,650
20,935
32.3
33.0
4.2
5.8
14.6
10.8
0.3
0.3
2.3
3.1
2.3
2.1
Abbott India
Neutral
1,582
3,361
1,602
1,833
10.4
11.8
54.7
71.7
28.9
22.1
5.5
4.6
20.0
22.7
1.9
1.6
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
201
228
2,004
3,670
4,290
7.6
8.8
15.0
23.0
13.4
8.7
2.5
2.0
18.6
22.4
0.5
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
352
388
445
396
470
16.7
16.6
31.0
35.0
11.4
10.1
2.6
2.1
24.8
23.0
1.1
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
466
682
120
289
340
5.2
5.9
41.0
57.0
11.4
8.2
2.9
2.2
25.2
26.5
0.5
0.4
CRISIL
Neutral
926
6,500
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
27.0
23.2
12.2
9.8
50.9
46.9
6.5
5.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
45
61
692
2,334
2,687
6.2
6.5
8.0
10.0
5.7
4.5
0.8
0.7
13.0
14.9
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
433
591
564
2,214
2,765
4.5
5.4
39.0
74.0
11.1
5.9
0.5
0.5
4.4
7.6
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Neutral
322
744
1,543
1,654
6.5
7.3
24.8
31.1
13.0
10.4
2.1
1.8
17.1
19.0
0.3
0.2
Disa India
Buy
2,942
3,353
444
176
203
22.7
22.6
182.5
209.6
16.1
14.0
8.4
6.6
51.8
47.1
2.2
1.8
Greenply Industries
Buy
204
309
492
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
6.9
4.6
1.1
0.9
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
Hitachi
Neutral
140
322
868
977
3.9
6.6
2.7
10.9
51.2
12.9
1.9
1.7
3.7
13.6
0.4
0.4
Honeywell Automation
Neutral
2,786
2,463
1,847
2,162
4.3
7.3
69.0
135.0
40.4
20.6
3.6
3.1
9.3
16.3
1.3
1.1
Styrolution ABS India
Buy
650
744
1,143
1,056
1,081
8.1
10.6
34.0
47.0
19.1
13.8
2.7
2.3
14.7
17.5
1.1
1.0
ITD Cementation
Neutral
241
278
1,451
1,669
12.3
12.4
32.4
41.5
7.4
5.8
0.7
0.6
9.4
10.9
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
158
2,545
1,248
1,468
9.8
10.4
5.9
7.2
26.6
22.0
3.8
3.5
15.0
16.6
2.5
2.0
MCX
Accumulate
1,336
1,440
6,813
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
21.4
18.6
5.9
5.1
27.5
27.4
8.9
7.4
MRF
Buy
10,342
12,884
4,386
11,804
12,727
10.4
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
8.0
7.2
1.6
1.3
21.3
19.4
0.5
0.5
Telecom
zOthers
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
3,380
716
821
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
3,770
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
35.6
28.0
18.6
15.1
57.4
59.5
4.0
3.2
859
1,019
1,208
12.3
13.0
51.0
68.4
14.0
10.5
3.7
2.8
30.3
30.2
1.0
0.8
zOthers
Page Industries
Neutral
Relaxo Footwears
Accumulate
Sintex Industries
Buy
72
79
1,972
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
5.3
4.6
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
313
392
293
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.7
4.0
0.9
0.8
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
S. Kumars Nationwide
Buy
20
24
590
7,134
7,985
19.7
19.4
12.2
14.1
1.6
1.4
0.2
0.2
11.3
11.5
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
37
43
1,795
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
10.3
6.9
14.9
4.7
0.4
0.4
TAJ GVK
Buy
73
108
456
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
9.2
8.0
1.2
1.1
13.9
14.4
1.8
1.5
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
321
377
494
787
837
16.2
17.5
58.5
66.9
5.5
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.9
15.1
0.3
0.2
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
304
335
233
1,476
1,643
7.0
8.2
32.6
55.9
9.3
5.4
1.5
1.2
16.8
24.8
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,261
16,494
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
40.6
29.4
3.2
2.9
8.1
10.3
2.2
2.0
Vesuvius India
Neutral
343
696
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
13.9
11.9
2.1
1.8
15.8
16.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 05, 2012
Market Outlook
October 08, 2012

Market Outlook 8.10.12

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Market Outlook 8.10.12

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Market Outlook

OIL & GAS

Supreme Court order ban mining in Goa

Net Inflows (October 04, 2012)

FII Derivatives (October 05, 2012)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Supreme Court order ban mining in Goa

RBI may invite applications for banking licenses later this

Economic and Political News

DoT says no to raising ceiling on FDI in telecom to 100%

Godrej Properties gives up plan to buy HDILs Bangalore plot

October 10, 2012

October 11, 2012

Infosys, HDFC Bank

October 13, 2012

October 16, 2012

October 18, 2012

Ambuja Cements, ACC, Persistent

October 19, 2012

Mundra Port, Adani Power, Exide Industries, Zee Entertainment

October 20, 2012

M&M, Bajaj Auto

October 21, 2012

October 23, 2012

October 24, 2012

October 26, 2012

ICICI Bank, Dabur India

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Oct 9 2012 12:00AM

Industrial Production (YoY)

Oct 11 2012 12:00AM US

Initial Jobless claims

Oct 12 2012 12:00AM US

Producer Price Index (mom)

Industrial Production YoY

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Consumer price index (mom)

Jobless claims change

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

Oct 17 2012 12:00AM US

Oct 18 2012 12:00AM China

Existing home sales

New home sales

FOMC rate decision

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries