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Morgan Conference on Risk Management & Fundamental Trends in the Variable Annuity Market
June 3, 2009 Zafar Rashid Senior Vice President, Life and Annuity Financial
Important Disclosures
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 which, by their nature, are subject to risks and uncertainties. We intend for these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws relating to forward-looking statements. These include statements relating to trends in, or representing managements beliefs about, our future transactions, strategies, operations and financial results, as well as other statements including words such as anticipate, believe, plan, estimate, expect, intend, may, should and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are made based upon our current expectations and beliefs concerning trends and future developments and their potential effects on the company. They are not guarantees of future performance. Our actual business, financial condition and results of operations may differ materially from those suggested by forward-looking statements as a result of risks and uncertainties, which include, among others, those risks and uncertainties set forth herein or described in any of our filings with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Financial Highlights
As of March 31, 2009
Total assets: $24.8 billion Total invested assets and cash (excluding CDOs): $13.4 billion Total stockholders equity: $865.4 million Gross life insurance in force: $166.3 billion Average life face amount sold in 1Q 2009: $1.0 million Annuity assets under management (includes private placements): $6.6 billion Private placement assets under management: $3.1 billion Variable annuities with living benefits account balance: $1.2 billion
D
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S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg
ec M -05 a Ju r-06 Se n-0 p 6 D -06 ec M -06 a Ju r-07 Se n-0 p 7 D -07 ec M -07 a Ju r-08 Se n-0 p 8 D -08 ec M -08 ar -0 9
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Volatility Index
ec M -05 a Ju r-06 Se n-0 p 6 D -06 ec M -06 a Ju r-07 Se n-0 p 7 D -07 ec M -07 a Ju r-08 Se n-0 p 8 D -08 ec M -08 ar -0 9
10-Year Treasury
Inventory of Risks
Hedged Risks > Equity market: Risk of a prolonged drop in equity markets > Interest rates: Risks associated with changes in the yield curve > Volatility changes: Risks associated with changes in implied volatility Unhedgeable Risks > Basis risk: The performance of customer funds differs from the hedged indices > Policyholder behavior risk: Policy lapse and benefit utilization differ from pricing > Timing risk: Risk of a market shift between policy initiation and hedge initiation > Model risk: Risk of an error in the models used to price assets or liabilities > Counterparty risk: The ability of the derivative counterparty to meet future obligations
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Hedging Example
Market Shocks with Hedge Overlay
(30)
(20)
(10)
(5)
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$70 $50 $30 $10 (3) (2) (1) $(10) $(30) $(50) $(70)
$ in millions 11
Unhedgeable Risks
Monitoring
Basis Risk Review of ongoing performance
Mitigation
> Mapping historical fund performance to various market indices > Historical relative performance is built into the pricing > Permit product only with balanced and asset allocation funds > Fluctuations beyond historical relative performance tend to be random and average out over long term > Shorten gap between premium flow and hedge initiation > Limit additional deposits to a short period on some new issues > Subsequent deposits are priced and hedged when received > Gain or loss from short timing gap tends to be random and small > Hedging operations frequently tested to assure execution > Use industry standard tools > Engaged multiple actuarial consultants to assist in building models > Compare results from two different models for validation > Require regular review of all significant models > Require minimum counterparty rating of AA> Diversify derivative counterparty exposure among multiple highly rated counterparties > Sensitivity testing of all assumptions > Able to adjust prices on new issues > For some products, adjust prices when a step-up election is made
Timing Risk
Model Risk
N/A
Counterparty Risk
Exposures reviewed monthly at Investment Policy Committee > Monitor experience and adjust hedge mix > Gather industry experience as it evolves
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Hedge Effectiveness
> Dynamic hedging strategies generally performed reasonably well until 3Q2008 > Unprecedented increase in hedge ineffectiveness in late 3Q2008 and 4Q2008 > Causes: Performance of underlying funds differed materially from the hedged indices Sharp increase in implied volatilities Large daily market moves resulted in significant unhedged gamma and convexity exposure Significant increases in bid-asked spreads on derivatives Numerous changes in the derivative dealers pricing models led to unpredicted value changes Faster convergence of market correlations > Hedge ineffectiveness has diminished considerably in 1Q2009 > Basis risk is the largest component of ineffectiveness > Basis risk tends to produce random hedge gains/losses that average out in the long term
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Industry Responses
> Shift away from delta hedging towards a fuller dynamic hedge > Partial hedging of GMIB and GMDB exposures > Greater focus on statutory reserve and capital preservation > Accepting greater GAAP volatility > Increased sophistication of hedge models and scenario generators > Hedging with additional indices > Explored (with limited success) reinsurance alternatives
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Richness of GMWB Based on W/D Limit, Roll-Up % and Max Equity Allocation
Reinsurance Alternatives
> Early GMDBs were often reinsured at very low rates > Reinsurance market evaporated in 2001-2002 > A spotty re-emergence of the reinsurers in 2007 > Reinsurance costs are higher than hedge costs > Limited utilization by direct writers due to cost considerations
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Capital requirements
> Capital requirements follow a similar approach but with more conservative parameters > Regulatory threshold for the stochastic asset required is CTE 90 > Companies can grade into the current year total asset requirement over a two year period > Rating agencies are more likely to look for CTE 98 > Total capital required also increases sharply as the guarantees move into the money
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