M*E*M*O*R*A*N*D*U*M

TO: Rick Nolan for Congress, MN-08 FROM: Donna Victoria, Victoria Research & Consulting DATE: October 10, 2012 This memorandum reports on the findings of a poll taken in the 8th Congressional District of Minnesota October 7-8, 2012. Four hundred registered, likely voters for November 2012 were interviewed. The poll was designed to track the progress of the congressional campaign of Rick Nolan. All questions about this memo or its contents should be referred to Donna Victoria (donnaV@victoriaresearch.com). The DCCC released polling figures this week showing that Rick Nolan was even with Chip Cravaack in the hotly contested race for Minnesotas 8th Congressional District. We are pleased to report that just days later, our internal polling indicates that Rick Nolan has a full head of steam and is surging ahead, even in the face of more than $1.5 million dollars of deceitful, negative advertising against him. Key results are as follows: The initial trial heat in this district is 48% for Rick Nolan, 44% for Chip Cravaack, with 8% undecided. While this lead is just barely within the margin of error, everything in this poll indicates that as voters become re-acquainted with Rick Nolan, they like what they see. Since the August primary, Nolans name recognition has climbed from 63% to 85% of all likely voters, and his favorable to unfavorable ratio is better than 2-to-1. On the other hand, the more Minnesotans see of Chip Cravaack, the less they care for him. In addition to trailing in the trial heat, Cravaack has more unfavorable ratings from his constituents than favorable ones, just like his top-of-the-ticket leader Mitt Romney. And Congressman Cravaack has a dismal 63% negative job rating. Even with this Congresss record low regard from voters, it is hard to recover from such a rating. Especially considering that we asked these same voters about another member of Congress, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who receives a glowing 61% positive to 35% negative job rating from 8th district voters. There is one item from this poll where Chip Cravaack is in the lead; when voters are asked who will cut Medicare coverage Cravaack is in the lead by 24 percentage points. We cannot drop our vigilance in this race; we already know that our opponent and his allies will spend whatever it takes to try to smear Rick Nolan, and we will have to fight this campaign right down to the wire on November 6th. But thus far, voters seem to be getting to know Rick Nolan and see him as a true born and bred Minnesota businessman who stands up for the middle class and will protect Medicare.