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September26,2012
TTKPrestige
InstitutionalEquities
IndiaResearch
Bloomberg:TTKPTIN
Reuters:TTKP.BO
INITIATIONREPORT
SELL
APricyKitchenKing
Recommendation
TTK Prestige (TTKP) has transformed itself from asingle product company
toatotalkitchenappliancescompanyinthelastfiveyears.Itisthemarket
leader in pressure cookers and also commands numero uno position in
inductioncooktopswithamarketshareof20%.
CMP:
Rs3,787
TargetPrice:
Rs3,173
Downside(%)
16%
StockInformation
MarketCap.(Rsbn/US$mn)
Outlook&Valuation
RevenueandnetincomeofTTKPgrewby31%and57%CAGR,respectively
inFY0712period.WebelievethatTTKPstopandbottomlinestomaintain
25%CAGRinFY1214Eperiod.AtCMPofRs.3,787,thestocktradesat31.1x
and 24.4x of FY13E and FY14E EPS, respectively. We believe the stock is
expensive at current levels amid slower growth and expected lower return
ratios. We initiate coverage on TTKP with SELL recommendation and a
targetpriceofRs.3,173pershare,having16%downsidepotential.
KeyFinancials
Y/EMar(Rsmn)
NetSales
EBIDTA
NetProfit
EPS(Rs)
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
ROE(%)
FY10
5,079
774
485
42.8
88.5
54.8
46.4
FY11
7,636
1,253
843
74.5
50.8
33.8
53.4
FY12
11,034
1,768
1,134
100.1
37.8
24.0
47.6
FY13E
14,092
2,198
1,377
121.6
31.1
19.3
40.4
FY14E
17,351
2,776
1,760
155.5
24.4
15.3
38.2
FY15E
21,168
3,259
2,091
184.7
20.5
13.0
35.0
3mADV(Rsmn/US$mn)
413/7.6
0.95
Sensex/Nifty
18,694/5,674
Shareoutstanding(mn)
11
StockPerformance(%)
Absolute
Rel.toSensex
1M
11.0
3M
22.4
12M
44.5
YTD
51.6
5.8
11.7
28.8
30.7
Performance
3,000
16,000
2,500
15,000
2,000
Sensex(LHS)
S12
3,500
17,000
J12
18,000
M12
4,000
J12
19,000
M12
Returns Ratios to Decline Going Forward: TTKP has generated near 50%
ROEinthelastthreeyearsduetohigherassetturnoversandincreasedEBIT
Margin. We believe the ROE will decelerate to near 30% in FY16E due to
decreasedEBITMarginandlowerassetturnoversasthecompanyhasbeen
investingincapitalexpenditure.WebelievethatTTKPscapacityutilization
willpeakbyFY14E.InordertodrivesalesfurthertheCompanyhastohike
inhouse capacity or rely on outsourcing after FY14E. Both the options will
adverselyimpactTTKPscashflowsandreturnratiosfromFY15Eonwards.
3,967/2,151
Beta
N11
CompetitiveAdvantageinPressureCookersmaynotbeextendedtoKEA:
WebelieveTTKPmaynotbeabletoenjoysimilarcompetitiveadvantagein
KEAsegmentasitenjoysinPressureCookerswhereitistheleaderwith40%
marketshare.TTKPenjoysmarketshareof20%inInductionCooktopsand
highsingle digits in rest of the KEA products. TTKP outsources most of its
KEAs.Moreover,theorganizedpressurecookermarketisclosertoduopoly
whereas KEA segment markets represent oligopolies. TTKP generates an
EBITDA margin of ~19% on inhouse manufacturing and ~12% on
outsourcedproducts.WebelievethecompanysmarginwillreduceasKEA
outgrowsrestofthesegments.
43/780
52weekHigh/Low(Rs)
S11
TTKPrestige
Source:Bloomberg
1YearForwardP/E
30
25
20
23.0
15
10
5
0
Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr
07
08
09
10
11
12
TTKPrestige1yrForwardP/E
Mean
Mean+StdDev
Source:KarvyInstitutionalResearch
AnalystsContact
JagadishwarPasunoori,CFA,FRM
+914044857912
jagadishwar.p@karvy.com
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
CompanyFinancialSnapshot
Profit&loss
Rs.mn
CompanyBackground
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
11,034
1,768
31
103
62
1,632
499
1,134
1,134
14,092
2,198
16
163
108
1,943
567
1,377
1,377
17,351
2,776
16
139
150
2,502
742
1,760
1,760
EBIDTAMargins(%)
PATMargins(%)
EV/EBIDTA(x)
PER(x)
16.0
10.3
24.0
37.8
15.6
9.8
19.3
31.1
16.0
10.1
15.3
24.4
DividendPayout(%)
15.0
17.0
22.0
Netrevenues
EBIDTA
Otherincome
Interest
Depreciation
ProfitBeforeTax
Provisionfortax
AdjustedNetProfit
ReportedNetProfit
ProfitandLossRatios
TTKPrestige(TTKP)a57yearoldcompanyoperatesin
kitchen appliances industry. Its portfolio includes Pressure
Cookers, Pans, NonStick Cookware, Gas Stoves, Induction
Cooktops, Rice Cookers and other kitchen electrical
appliances.
TTKP has evolved from a single product and South India
dominant company to total kitchen appliances company
with panIndia presence. It has won many awards such as
SuperBrand,MasterBrandandStarSME.
TTKP has eight manufacturing facilities at Housur,
Coimbatore & Roorkee. The Company generated Rs. 11 bn
andRs.1.1bninsalesandnetincome,respectivelyinFY12.
Itsdistributionnetworkincludes356PSKoutletsand30,000
retailoutletsapartfrominstitutionssuchasHPCL&BPCL.
CashFlow
BalanceSheet
Rs.mn
FY12
FY13E
Shareholdersfunds
2,851
3,956
FY14E
Rs.mn
5,266 EBIT
(Inc)/Decinworkingcapital
Cashflowfromoperations
Otherincome
5,266
3,164 Depreciation
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
1,705
(181)
1,525
2,090
(469)
1,621
2,625
(334)
2,291
31
16
16
223
710
Deferredtaxliability
TotalLiabilities&Equity
68
3,142
4,666
Netblock
1,507
2,896
49
108
150
794
397
278 Interestpaid
(103)
(163)
(139)
97
138
(197)
(272)
(450)
123 Dividendspaid
4 Taxpaid
(499)
(567)
(742)
741
1,232
805
744
1,126
3,142
4,666
(1,540)
(1,100)
(300)
(735)
(356)
826
154
353
(550)
11
135
(160)
TotalLoans
CapitalWIP
LTloansandadvances
Investments
Netcurrentassets
Deferredexpenditure
TotalAssets
BalanceSheetRatios
Fixedassetsturnoverratio
(x)
ROCE(%)
11.5
6.4
46.0
37.9
ROE(%)
47.6
40.4
(0.00)
0.11
NetDebt/Equity(x)
3.9
EV/Sales(x)
3.1
1,697 Netcashfromoperations
Capitalexpenditure
5,266
FreeCashFlows
Inc/(Dec)inLTborrowing
5.7 Inc/(Dec)inSTborrowing
165
487
(710)
535
223
286
223
286
402
(312)
63
116
37.2 CashfromFinancialActivities
38.2 OpeningCash
ClosingCash
2.4 ChangeinCash
(0.08)
Shareholdingpattern
SalesbyRegionFY12
Northand
East,20%
Exports,3%
FIIs,11.8
Promoter/Maj
ority,74.9
Banks/Fis/MFs
,3.4
Others,0.9
Public,
9.0
Source:Bloomberg
West,15%
South,62%
Source:Company
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
Outlook&Valuation
AtCMPofRs.3,787pershare,thestocktradesatP/Emultipleof31.1xand24.4xof
FY13E & FY14E EPS, respectively. We value TTKPs core business at Rs. 3,109
(20xFY14EEPS)anditsrealtyatRs.64.HenceourtargetpricecomestoRs.3,173
pershare,having16%potentialdownside.Aswebelievethestockisovervalued
at the current levels, we initiate coverage on TTK Prestige with SELL
recommendation.
DCFFCFEValuation:WevaluedTTKPusingFreeCashFlowtoEquity(FCFE)
methodtosubstantiateourFY14EP/Emultipleof20.Wehaveassumedover20%
growthintoplineuntilFY17EandgrowthinhighteensthereaftertillFY22E.We
have also assumed that TTKPs EBITDA margin will be compressed by 200 bps
over FY14E22E, with the rise in proportion of kitchen electrical appliances and
higheroutsourcing.TheFCFEmethodsubstantiatesourFY14EP/Emultipleof20
forTTKPscoreoperations.
Exhibit1: DCFValuationusingFreeCashFlowtoEquity TTKPrestige
(mn)
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
FY22E
Revenue
14,092
17,351
21,168
25,591
30,709
36,237
42,760
49,174
56,550
65,032
EBITDA
2,198
2,776
3,259
3,812
4,513
5,253
6,113
6,932
7,859
8,973
EBIT
2,090
2,625
3,055
3,578
4,268
5,000
5,814
6,588
7,463
8,517
Depreciation(b)
108
150
204
234
246
254
299
344
396
455
Interest/BankCharges
163
139
75
89
107
129
155
186
223
267
Tax
567
742
916
1,093
1,288
1,508
1,752
1,982
2,314
2,637
16
16
26
42
54
71
92
119
143
158
OtherIncome
NetIncome(a)
1,372
1,755
2,083
2,425
2,910
3,412
3,971
4,503
5,024
5,721
EBITDAMargin(%)
15.6
16.0
15.4
14.9
14.7
14.5
14.3
14.1
13.9
13.8
EBITMargin(%)
14.8
15.1
14.4
14.0
13.9
13.8
13.6
13.4
13.2
13.1
TaxRate(%)
29.2
29.7
30.5
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
32.0
32.0
ChangeinWC(c)
469
334
825
1,039
349
472
525
497
543
590
1,100
300
400
400
369
355
419
482
554
637
ChangeinDebt(e)
487
(710)
FCFE(a+bcd+e)
398
561
1,062
1,220
2,438
2,838
3,327
3,868
4,323
4,949
398
561
1,062
1,220
2,438
2,838
3,327
3,868
4,323
92,380
481
780
768
1,314
1,311
1,317
1,312
1,257
23,011
Capex(d)
TerminalFCFE
TotalFCFE
87,431
DiscountedFCFE
CostofEquity(%)
16.7
TerminalCostofEquity(%)
12.0
TerminalGrowthRate(%)
IntrinsicValue(FY14Eonwards)
NumberofShares(Mn)
ValueperShareexcl.RE*Value(Rs)
ImpliedP/EMultiple
TerminalFCFE/IntrinsicValue(%)
6.0
31,953
11.3
2,823
18.2
69
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch;*RE:RealEstate
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
PeerComparison
ThoughthebusinessmodelofTTKPrestigeisnotstrictlycomparablewiththose
of Hawkins, Butterfly Gandhimati Appliances (BGA), Bajaj Electricals (BJEL) &
Havells, they operate in same space with different set of products. However, we
haveprovidedvaluationdataforotherconsumptionrelatedcompanies.
TTKP commands higher P/E multiples than Havells and BJEL, as the former
generates higher EBITDA margins, returns rates and topline growth. TTKPs
multiple premium will reduce in the medium to longterm as it generates more
revenue from Kitchen Electrical Appliances (KEA) segment, which consists of
majorplayerssuchasHavells,BJEL,VGuard,PanasonicandPhilips/Preeti.
A.MultiplesGreaterthanPeers
Currently,theTTKPP/EratioissimilartothatofPageIndustriesanddiscountto
Jubilant FoodWorks. However, we believe that TTKP may not get P/E ratios
similar to that of Page Industries and Jubilant FoodWorks, as the shelflife of
TTKPs products is 35 years, while the lifespans of Page and Jubilant products
areafewmonthsandafewhoursrespectively.
Exhibit2: PeerValuationTable
CMP
(Rs)
P/E(x)
FY13E
TTKPrestige
3,787
BajajElectricals
201
HavellsIndia
621
OtherConsumptionBasedCompanies
PageIndustries*
3,207
JubilantFoodWorks*
1,299
EPSGrowth(%)
EBIDTAMargin(%)
EV/EBIDTA(x)
Price/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
31.1
15.6
17.6
24.4
11.9
14.9
21.4
9.3
19.1
27.8
30.5
18.4
15.6
7.8
10.5
16.0
8.4
10.9
19.3
8.1
11.0
15.3
6.8
9.4
3.04
0.56
1.07
2.47
0.49
0.98
31.3
54.6
24.4
38.8
27.0
45.8
28.3
40.6
20.2
18.8
20.3
19.2
19.6
27.5
15.2
19.9
4.12
5.90
3.23
4.35
Source:Bloomberg&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
OurView:TheKEAsegmentismorecompetitiveasnosingleplayercommands
over20%marketshareinanyoftheproductsthattheyoperate,whereasTTKP
&Hawkinstogetherconstitute80%ofthemarketshareinpressurecookers.
B.ReturnstoDeclineduetoLowerAssetTurnoverandEBIT
Margin
TTKPhasgenerated~4555%ROEinthelastthreeyearsduetohigheroutsourcing
andinturnhigherassetturnover.
Exhibit3: DuPontAnalysis
DuPontAnalysis
TaxBurden(%)
InterestBurden(%)
EBITMargin(%)
TotalAssetT/O
FinancialLeverage
ROE(%)
FY06
59.3
64.5
8.4
2.1
2.2
15.0
FY07
70.9
67.3
8.7
2.4
2.3
23.0
FY08
82.0
69.6
9.3
2.6
2.0
28.0
FY09
77.2
79.9
9.0
3.5
1.5
29.2
FY10
67.8
95.4
14.7
4.3
1.1
46.4
FY11
69.7
96.5
16.3
4.6
1.0
53.4
FY12
69.4
94.0
15.7
4.3
1.1
47.6
FY13E
70.8
92.3
14.9
3.6
1.1
40.4
FY14E
70.3
94.7
15.2
3.5
1.1
38.2
FY15E
69.5
97.6
14.5
3.5
1.0
35.0
FY16E
69.0
97.5
14.1
3.4
1.0
32.5
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
OurView:TTKPmaynotbeabletoenjoythesimilarassetturnoversdueto
recent capex and lower EBIT margin, which will lead to lower ROE, going
forward.
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
RationaleforSELLRecommendation
Ourinvestmentthesisisbasedonfollowingpremises:
1.ImprovementinMarketSharetoTakeaBreather
2.OurDistributorSurveyRevealsSubstantialVolumeDegrowthacrossSegments
3.CompetitiveAdvantageinPressureCookersmaynotbeextendedtoKEA
4.SixCylinderPolicymaynotHikeInductionCooktopSales
5.CapacityConstraintstoRecedeEBITDAMarginsfromFY15Eonwards
6.KitchenElectricalAppliancestoDragMargins
7.InternationalCollaborations
8.USPatentBoostExportofMicrowavePressureCookers
9.DistributionNetworkinnonSouthernIndianeedsImprovement
1.ImprovementinMarketSharetoTakeaBreather
Inorganizedpressurecookerssegment,themarketshareofTTKPrestige(TTKP)
has increased by 8% in last five years. TTKP & Hawkins dominate this segment
with combined market share of 7580%. While the volume of TTKPs pressure
cookershasgrownby23%CAGRinFY0711,Hawkinsrecordedvolumegrowth
at 14% CAGR. TTKP has gained market share from Hawkins due to capacity
constraints at the latter due to issues relating to pollution and labor matters.
Hawkinscurrentlyrunsatacapacityutilizationof~45%duetotheaboveissues.
OurdistributorsurveyhasindicatedthatHawkinscouldnotmeetthedemandin
South India despite consistent demand from distributors and dealers. Hawkins
informed that it resolved the labor issues by reaching an agreement with labor
union, but the Company is yet to resolve pollution issues raised by Punjab
PollutionControlBoard.
OurView:TTKPrestigewilllosesomemarketsharetoHawkinsoncethelatter
resolvesitspollutionissuesandincreasesproduction.
Chennai: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been
highsingle digits and highteens respectively. Credit terms for the Pressure
CookersandKEAare015daysand3060daysrespectively.
Bangalore: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been
midsingledigitsand10%,respectively.CredittermsforPressureCookersand
KEA are 1530 days and 3060 days respectively. It is also revealed that
intensifyingcompetitionleadstomargincompression.
Hyderabad:ThevolumegrowthrateinPressureCookersandKEAhasbeen
midsingledigitsandteensrespectively.CredittermsforPressureCookers&
KEAare07daysand3045daysrespectively.
New Delhi: The growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA has been high
teens.CredittermsforPressureCookers&KEAare030daysand3045days,
respectively.
Mumbai: The credit terms for Pressure Cookers & KEA are 3060 days.
Hawkins and Nirali are the leaders in Pressure Cookers and NonStick
Cookwarerespectively.
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
OurView:TTKPsgrowthinKEA
segmentwilldeclineto~30%inFY1215E
from65%CAGRinFY0812.
OurView:TTKPsdebtorswillrise
significantlywiththeriseinrevenue
shareasapercentageoftotalsalesof
KEAsegmentandnonSouthIndia.
CongressPartyhasaskedstategovernments,whichareruledbytheirparty,to
increasenumberofsubsidizedcylindersfrom6to9.
TTK Prestige generates 62% of sales from South India, which is a power
deficientregion.PercentageofNonSouthIndiasaleshasnotincreasedmuch
duringthelastthreeyears.
Power cuts are in the range of 13 hours during peak hours which is also
cooking time in Hyderabad and Chennai. TierII/III cities experience power
cuts in the range of 56 hours during peak hours. The situation will even
worseninsummers.
South Indias power supply deficit has increased to 16% in August 2012 as
against4%inAugust2011.
PowersituationinSouthIndiamaynotbeimprovedinnexttwoyearsdueto
coal supply issues and state governments have not increased power
generationcapacitiesintherecentpast.
Power supply to South India from rest of the country is limited by power
transmissionconstraints,whichcannotbeimproveduntilJanuary2014.
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
ProspectiveInductioncooktopbuyersneedtobuyanewsetofutensilsalong
withinductioncooktops.
Exhibit4: PowerDeficitSituationinSouthIndia
PowerDeficit(%)
Aug12
Aug11
AprAug12
AprAug11
AndhraPradesh
20.9
0.3
15.1
8.4
Karnataka
16.2
7.3
13.1
11.4
TamilNadu
14.0
4.4
14.6
11.3
2.2
3.4
3.1
8.0
16.0
4.4
13.4
7.2
Kerala
SouthernRegion
Source:MinistryofPower,GoI
5.CapacityConstraintstoRecedeEBITDAMarginsfrom
FY15Eonwards
TTKPhasbeenoncapexdrivesinceFY11andspentRs.1.9bnuntilQ4FY12,while
the Company mulls spending another Rs. 1.1 bn in FY13E to double its annual
nonstick cookware capacity to 12 mn pieces and increase the annual induction
cooktopscapacityto1mnpieces.ItalsoplanstospendRs.200mninFY14Eas
maintenance capex. TTKP generates an EBITDA margin of ~19% on inhouse
manufacturedproductsand~12%onoutsourcedproducts.
OurView:TTKPscapacityutilizationwillpeakbyFY14E,asinitsdrivetoboost
sales it has to hike inhouse capacity or rely on outsourcing after FY14E. While
the 1st option will lead to decreased free cash flows, increased debt levels,
depreciation and interest and the 2nd option will result in decreased EBITDA
margin.BoththeoptionswilladverselyimpactTTKPsPATmargins,cashflows,
returnratiosandvaluationsfromFY15Eonwards.
Exhibit5: Inhouse/Outsourcedmanufacturinginformation
ProductSegment
Remarks
PressureCookers
&Pans
InhouseMfg:TTKPhasexpandedproductioncapacityto8mn,whichwebelieveissufficientuntilFY14E.The
CompanyhastoeitherincreasemfgcapacityoroutsourcemfgtomeetdemandfromFY15Eonwards
Inhouse&OutsourcedMfgtillFY12:TTKPhasexpandedproductioncapacityto6mninFY12Eandwillbefurther
expandedto12mnbyFY13E.WebelievetheCompanyhastoeitherincreasemfgcapacityoroutsourcemfgtomeet
demandfromFY15Eonwards
Nonstick
Cookware
GasStoves
OutsourcedMfg:
KitchenElectrical
Appliances
OutsourcedMfgtillFY12:TTKPhasbuiltmfgfacilityforinductioncooktopsfor~1mnpieces,anditplanstooutsource
aportionofinductioncooktops.Otherproductsi.e.Mixers/Grinders,Juicers,andKettleswillbeoutsourced
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit6: InstalledCapacity(mn)
ProductSegment
PressureCookers
NonstickCookware
InductionCooktops
FY09
4.0
1.8
NA
FY10
4.8
2.0
NA
FY11
4.8
2.0
NA
FY12
8.0
6.0
NA
FY13E
8.0
12.0
1.0
FY14E
8.0
12.0
1.0
FY15E
8.0
12.0
1.0
FY16E
8.0
12.0
1.0
FY10
2.8
1.9
NA
FY11
3.7
3.5
NA
FY12
4.5
5.1
0.9
FY13E
5.3
6.1
1.2
FY14E
6.1
7.3
1.6
FY15E
7.1
8.7
2.0
FY16E
8.1
10.5
2.7
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit7: SalesVolume(mn)
ProductSegment
PressureCookers
NonstickCookware
InductionCooktops
FY09
2.1
1.2
NA
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
Exhibit8: Production(mn)
ProductSegment
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
PressureCookers
2.3
2.8
3.9
4.5
5.3
6.1
6.4
6.4
NonstickCookware
1.3
1.7
1.7
5.1
6.1
7.3
8.7
9.6
InductionCooktops
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit9: CapacityUtilization(%)
ProductSegment
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
PressureCookers
57.1
57.6
80.9
55.6
66.8
76.8
80.0
80.0
NonstickCookware
70.5
85.6
85.0
84.3
50.6
60.7
72.9
80.0
InductionCooktops
NA
NA
NA
NA
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit10: OutsourcingPercentage(%)
ProductSegment
FY09
FY10
FY11
PressureCookers
2.1
9.4
21.2 NeedCapexinFY14E.
NonstickCookware
11.6
52.0
8.5 NeedCapexinFY15E.
NA
NA
NA
NA
33.9
49.2
60.9
InductionCooktops
69.9
RecentCapexisnotgoodenoughfor100%in
housemanufacturingofinductioncooktops.
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
ImpactofHigherCapex&OutsourcingonMargins:TTKPhastospendRs.33.5
bn in FY1415E to maintain 100% inhouse manufacturing in Pressure Cooker &
NonStickCookwaresegments.IthastoraiseRs.2.5bntomeetthecapexplan,but
interestonnewloancoupledwithhigherdepreciationwilldragitsPATmargins
OurView:TheexpectedEBITDAMof
by 80 bps. Moreover, ~4550% of sales have to be outsourced from FY14FY15E
16.0%inFY14Ewillbethehighestmargin
thatTTKPwillachievewithlatestcapex onwards in case TTKP wont undertake the aforementioned capex. We believe
andcurrenttrendofrawmaterialprices. that the expected higher outsourcing will reduce TTKPs EBITDA & PAT
marginsby~100bpsand~70bps,respectively.
6.KitchenElectricalAppliancestoDragMargins
TTKP generates an EBITDA margin of~19% oninhouse manufactured products
and ~12% on outsourced products. TTKPs sales in Kitchen Electrical Appliances
OurView:TTKPsoutsourcingpercentage
(KEA) segment have been outgrowing its rest segments and we believe the
willincreasewiththeriseinsalesinKEA
Company will be able to continue the same in future. TTKPs outsourcing
segment.Higheroutsourcingwilldecrease
percentagewouldincreaseafterFY14Easitdoesntmakemucheconomicalsense
EBITDAmarginsofthecompany.
toinvestincapacityforsmallKEAsegment.
Exhibit11: RevenueContributionPercentageofeachSegment
RevenueContribution(%)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Comment
Pressurecookers
55
53
47
41
37
36
34
33
32
NeedscapexinFY14E
Nonstickcookware
16
15
17
20
20
19
19
19
19
NeedscapexinFY15E
GasStoves
10
10
12
10
KitchenElectricalAppliances 14
Other
17
20
25
31
35
37
40
41
Outsourced
Majorportionofinductioncooktopsandrestof
kitchenelectricalappliancesareoutsourced
Outsourced
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
7.InternationalCollaborations
TTKPhastiedupwithvariousMNCstointroducenewproductsinIndiathrough
cobrandingtoleverageitsdistributionnetwork.
Alliance with USbased World Kitchen: Through this alliance TTKP will
introducehighendTableware/Cookware&StorewarewithPrestigelogo.
Alliance with Germanybased Schott AG: TTKP has launched gas stoves
made from Schott tempered flat glass and an induction cooktop with glass
ceramiccooktops.
AlliancewithSwitzerlandbasedVestergaardFrandsonGroup:Throughthis
allianceTTKPwillmanufactureandmarketwaterfiltersacrossIndia.
OurView:ItwillbedifficultforTTKPto
Water Filter Market: Water Purifier market estimated to be Rs. 16 bn is
gainnotablemarketshareinwater
purifiersegmentamidintensecompetition dominated by players i.e. Hindustan Unilever, Kent Healthcare, Tata Chemicals
andEurekaForbes.Themarketissetfortoughcompetitionasthebiggiessuchas
fromthemarketleaders.
Godrej,PanasonicandLGarealsogearinguptotakeontheexistingplayers.
Traditi
onal
Retail,
63%
Exhibit12: TTKPrestigeDistributionStructure
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
SalesbyregionFY12
North
and
East,
20%
West,
15%
Export
s,3%
South,
62%
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
BrandedRetailOutlets:TTKPhasalsoincreaseditsownbrandedretailoutletsi.e.
Prestige Smart Kitchen (PSK) that covers 21 states and 179 towns in India. The
numberofPSKoutletsincreasedto356inFY12from51inFY05.
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
Exhibit13: NumberofPrestigeSmartKitchen(PSK)Outlets
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
NumberofPSKOutlets
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
OurView:WhileTTKPhasstrongdistributionnetworkinSouth,itsdistribution
networkinnonSouthIndianeedsimprovement.ItsKEAsegmentcompeteswith
major players i.e. Bajaj Electricals (BJEL) and Havells who having networks
consisting of 55,000 and 45,000 outlets. BJEL is spread across India and Havells
presence is strong in Northern, Eastern and Southern parts. Hawkins, TTKPs
competitorinpressurecookers,hasdevelopeditsforteinWestandNorthIndia.
Karvyvs.Consensus
Exhibit14: Karvyvs.Consensus
EPS
SalesGrowth(%)
EBITDAGrowth(%)
NIGrowth(%)
EBITDAMargin(%)
NIMargin(%)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Karvy
121.6
155.5
27.7
23.1
24.4
26.3
21.4
27.8
15.6
16.0
9.8
10.1
Consensus*
128.4
166.8
30.3
26.1
23.9
28.5
28.4
30.2
15.4
15.7
10.1
10.5
Difference
(6.8)
(11.4)
(2.6)
(3.0)
0.5
(2.2)
(7.0)
(2.4)
0.2
0.3
(0.4)
(0.3)
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch,*Bloomberg
10
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
KeyAssumptions&Estimates
Exhibit15: KeyAssumptions&Estimates
KeyFinancials
(Rsmn)
RevenuebyProduct
Estimates
FY11
Growth(%)
Pressurecookers&Pans
3,169
4,132
5,124
6,046
7,134
30.4
24.0
18.0
NonStickCookware
1,540
2,247
2,764
3,399
4,079
45.9
23.0
23.0
GasStoves
KitchenAppliances
NewJVs
Others
NetRevenues
EBITDA
250
400
520
266
280
288
297
306
7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168
24.7
81.1
15.0
36.0
3.0
27.7
15.0
30.0
60.0
3.0
23.1
EBITDA
1,253
1,768
2,198
2,776
3,259
41.0
24.4
26.3
EBITDA(%)
16.4
16.0
15.6
16.0
15.4
Depreciation
Otherincome
EBIT
43
43
1,254
62
31
1,736
108
16
2,106
150
16
2,641
204
26
3,081
46.5
(28.4)
38.5
72.8
(48.7)
21.3
39.2
25.4
44
103
163
139
75
133.7
57.3
(14.3)
AdjustedPBT
Tax
Taxrate
Reportednetprofit
NetProfit(%)
CFO(a)
1,209
366
30.3
838
11.0
500
1,632
499
30.6
1,134
10.3
841
1,943
567
29.2
1,377
9.8
676
2,502
742
29.7
1,760
10.1
1,126
3,006
916
30.5
2,091
9.9
790
35.0
36.3
28.8
31.0
35.4
19.0
13.6
21.4
CFI(b)
(300)
(400)
FCF(a+b)
CFF(c)
288
(192)
(699)
387
(424)
487
826
(710)
390
(250)
96
(312)
63
116
140
InterestExpense
TotalChangeinCash
Comments
5.5
44.5
27.8
Marketleadership,strongbrandequityand
exports
Risingmiddleclass,strongbrandingtosustain
20.0
growth
10.0
30.0 Slowdownininductioncooktops&KEA.
30.0 IntroductionofnewproductsfromJVs.
3.0
22.0
18.0
17.4 Withriseinoutsourcedmfg,margintodipby40
bpsinFY13E&riseby40bpsinFY14Ewithrise
ininhousemfg.
36.1
63.2
16.6
InterestexpensewillriseasTTKPraisesdebtin
(46.5)
FY13Etomeetcapexrequirements.
20.2
23.4
18.8
TTKPwillspendRs.1.11bninFY13E;Itwill
resorttomaintenancecapexinFY14E
Cashproceedswillbeusedtorepaydebtand
investinliquidassets
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
KeyRisks
UpsideRisks:
DeclineinCommodityPricesamidStrongerINR:Anydecreaseinaluminum
prices and stronger INR might increase the margins and profitability of the
Company.
SuccessofNewlylaunchedProducts:TTKPhastiedupwithvariousMNCs
to introduce new products in India. Hence success of these newly launched
productswillbecatalystforTTKPsgrowth.
DownsideRisks:
IntenseCompetition:Intensecompetitioninconsumerrelatedbusinessunits
mayimpactTTKPsprofitmargins,asthebarrierstoentryintheindustryare
low.
11
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
FinancialOverview
A. Lower Growth in KEA Segment to Drag Topline
Growth
TTKPs revenue grew by ~50% CAGR in the last two years led by Kitchen
ElectricalAppliances(KEA)withCAGRof83%,whilethesalesofInductionCook
topsquadrupled.TheKEAsegmenthasincreaseditsshareofrevenuesfrom20%
inFY10to31%inFY12.
Exhibit16: RevenueGrowthRates(%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
KitchenElectricalAppliances
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
CompanyRevenueGrowth
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
OurView:TTKPstoplinegrowthratewilldeclineto24%CAGRinFY1215E,as
thesalesofInductionCooktopsandotherappliancesdecreasetohighteens.
B.AssetTurnoverRatiotoDecreaseduetoCapex
TTKP has increased its Asset Turnover Ratio from 3.5 in FY09 to 4.3 in FY12
through high revenue growth, increased capacity utilization and outsourced
manufacturing.
Exhibit17: Revenue&AssetTurnover
25,000
5.0
4.6
4.3
20,000
4.3
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
15,000
3.0
10,000
2.0
5,000
1.0
4,013
5,079
7,636
11,034
14,092
17,351
21,168
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
0.0
Revenue
AssetTurnover
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
12
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
C.TTKPtoReachEBITDAMarginOverhanginFY14E
TTKPs EBITDA margin grew by 660 bps to 16.4% in FY0911, while its margin
decreased by 40 bps in FY12 due to higher outsourcing and raw material prices.
TTKPsmarginislikelytodecreasefurtherby40bpsinFY13Eandriseby40bps
to16.0%inFY14Eduetotheongoingcapitalinvestments,whichwillincreasein
housemanufacturingandinturnthemargin.
Exhibit18: EBITDA&EBITDAMargin
16.4
3,500
16.0
15.2
3,000
15.6
17.0
16.0
15.4
16.0
15.0
2,500
14.0
2,000
13.0
1,500
12.0
1,000
11.0
9.8
10.0
500
393
774
1,253
1,768
2,198
2,776
3,259
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
9.0
8.0
EBITDA
EBITDAMargin
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Ourview:TTKPwillbeabletoreporthighestmargininFY14Ewiththeongoing
capitalinvestments,andtheCompanyneedstoinvestinnewcapacitiestomeet
growing demands for Pressure Cookers & NonStick Cookware from FY15E
onwards.EBITDAMarginwilldecreasefromFY15EastheoutsourcingfromKEA
and/orPressureCookersegments&NonstickCookwareincrease.
D.NetIncomeMargintoReduceinFY13E
TTKPsnetincomemargingrewby480bpsto10.3%inFY0912,whichislikelyto
declineby50bpsto9.8%inFY13EduetocompressioninEBITDAmargin,higher
depreciationandinterest.
Exhibit19: NetIncome&NetIncomeMargin
2,500
Ourview:Thenetprofitmarginwill
declinefromFY15Eonwards,asthe
capacityutilizationwillpeakbyFY14E.
Initsdrivetoboostsales,TTKPhasto
hikeinhousecapacityorrelyon
outsourcingafterFY14E.Whilethe1st
optionwillleadtodecreasedfreecash
flows,increaseddebtlevels,depreciation
andinterestandthe2ndoptionwillresult
indecreasedEBITDAmargin.Boththe
optionswilladverselyimpactTTKPs
PATmargins,cashflows,returnratios
andvaluationsfromFY15Eonwards.
11.0
10.3
10.3
9.8
10.1
12.0
9.9
10.0
2,000
8.0
1,500
5.6
6.0
1,000
4.0
500
2.0
224
524
838
1,134
1,377
1,760
2,091
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
0.0
NetProft
NetProfitMargin
Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch
13
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
53.4
47.6
46.4
50.0
40.4
51.1
46.0
40.0
29.2
35.0
42.0
37.9
30.0
20.0
38.2
37.2
35.6
32.5
32.9
24.3
10.0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
ROCE
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
FY2016E
ROE
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
OurView:TheneedforhighercapitalinvestmentandriseinsalesinKEAsegment
willreduceROCE&ROE,goingforward.
14
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
Exhibit21: Profit&LossStatement
(Rsmn)
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Netrevenues
5,079
7,636
11,034
14,092
17,351
21,168
26.6
50.3
44.5
27.7
23.1
22
2,686
4,409
6,644
8,484
10,228
12,374
393
530
730
960
1,217
1,527
OperatingExpenses
1,227
1,443
1,893
2,450
3,130
4,009
Operatingexpenses
4,306
6,382
9,267
11,894
14,575
17,909
774
1,253
1,768
2,198
2,776
3,259
97
62
41
24.4
26.3
17.4
15.2
16.4
16
15.6
16
15.4
Otherincome
11
43
31
16
16
26
Interest
35
44
103
163
139
75
Depreciation
36
43
62
108
150
204
714
1,209
1,632
1,943
2,502
3,006
%Growth
RawMaterial
Staff
EBIDTA
Growth(%)
EBIDTAmargin(%)
ProfitBeforeTax
Provisionfortax
230
366
499
567
742
916
Effectivetaxrate(%)
32.2
30.3
30.6
29.2
29.7
30.5
AdjustedNetProfit
485
843
1,134
1,377
1,760
2,091
116.5
74
34.4
21.4
27.8
18.8
524
838
1,134
1,377
1,760
2,091
%Growth
ReportedNetProfit
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit22: BalanceSheet
(Rs.mn)
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
113
113
113
113
113
113
Reserves&surplus
1,128
1,801
2,738
3,843
5,152
6,563
Shareholdersfunds
1,242
1,915
2,851
3,956
5,266
6,676
ShorttermLoans
14
26
160
LongTermLoans
28
43
197
550
TotalLoans
28
58
223
710
Equitycapital
Deferredtaxliability
31
33
68
1,301
2,005
3,142
4,666
5,266
6,676
835
892
2,029
3,525
3,945
4,428
Depreciation
430
473
522
630
780
985
Netblock
405
419
1,507
2,896
3,164
3,443
CapitalWIP
235
391
794
397
278
194
Investments
LTLoansandAdvances
119
97
138
123
126
Inventory
613
1,050
1,749
2,216
2,651
3,415
Debtors
603
747
1,060
1,411
1,771
2,204
Cash&BankBalance
440
535
223
286
402
542
2,081
3,322
4,435
5,573
6,704
8,723
266
380
684
830
1,001
1,219
Othercurrentliabilities
1,158
1,869
3,010
3,511
4,005
4,595
CurrentLiabilities
1,424
2,250
3,694
4,341
5,007
5,814
Netcurrentassets
657
1,072
741
1,232
1,697
2,909
1,301
2,005
3,142
4,666
5,266
6,676
TotalLiabilitiesandEquity
Grossblock
CurrentAssets
SundryCreditors
TotalAssets
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
15
September26,2012
TTKPrestige
Exhibit23: CashFlowStatement
(Rsmn)
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
EBIT
738
1,211
1,705
2,090
2,625
3,055
(Inc.)/Decinworkingcapital
159
217
181
469
334
825
Cashflowfromoperations
897
994
1,525
1,621
2,291
2,230
Otherincome
11
43
31
16
16
26
Depreciation
34
43
49
108
150
204
35
44
103
163
139
75
Interestpaid()
Taxpaid()
230
366
499
567
742
916
Dividendspaid()
132
164
197
272
450
680
36
68
DeferredTaxLiability
Extraordinaries
40
586
500
841
676
1,126
790
Capitalexpenditure()
79
212
1,540
1,100
300
400
Netcashaftercapex
507
288
699
424
826
390
14
11
135
160
Netcashfromoperations
Inc./(Dec.)inshorttermborrowing
Inc./(dec.)inlongtermborrowing
179
15
154
353
550
Inc./(dec.)inborrowings
179
30
165
487
710
(Inc.)/Dec.ininvestments
222
222
250
Equityissue/(Buyback)
176
192
387
487
710
250
Openingcash
109
440
535
223
286
402
Closingcash
440
535
223
286
402
542
Changeincash
331
96
312
63
116
140
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
52.9
57.7
60.2
60.2
58.9
58.5
7.7
6.9
6.6
6.8
7.2
Operating&Othercost/Sales(%)
24.1
18.9
17.2
17.4
18
18.9
RevenueGrowth(%)
26.6
50.3
44.5
27.7
23.1
22
EBIDTAMargins(%)
15.2
16.4
16
15.6
16
15.4
NetIncomeMargins(%)
9.5
11
10.3
9.8
10.1
9.9
ROCE(%)
42
51.1
46
37.9
37.2
35.6
46.4
53.4
47.6
40.4
38.2
35
CashfromFinancialActivities
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit24: KeyRatios
RawMaterialCost/Sales(%)
ManpowerCost/Sales(%)
ROE(%)
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
Exhibit25: KeyRatios
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
EPS(Rs)
42.8
74.5
100.1
121.6
155.5
184.7
P/E(x)
88.5
50.8
37.8
31.1
24.4
20.5
BV(Rs)
109.7
169.2
251.9
349.5
465.2
589.8
P/BV(x)
34.5
22.4
15
10.8
8.1
6.4
EV/EBIDTA(x)
54.8
33.8
24
19.3
15.3
13
Fixedassetsturnoverratio(x)
13.3
18.5
11.5
6.4
5.7
6.4
Debt/Equity(x)
0.02
0.03
0.08
0.18
8.4
5.6
3.9
3.1
2.4
EV/Sales(x)
Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch
16
InstitutionalEquitiesTeam
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INSTITUTIONALSALESTRADING&DEALING
BhaveshGandhi
InstitutionalDealer
+912261844368/69
bhavesh.gandhi@karvy.com
PrashantOza
InstitutionalDealer
+912261844370/71
prashant.oza@karvy.com
ParagShah
SalesTrader
+912261844364/65
parag.shah@karvy.com
SriramJagdish
SalesTrader
+912261844366/67
sriram.jagdish@karvy.com
GurdarshanSinghKharbanda
SalesTrader
+912261844368/69
gurdarshansingh.k@karvy.com
PRODUCTION
AsimKumarMohapatra
Editor
+912261844318
asim.mohapatra@karvy.com
VishalRandive
DatabaseAnalyst
+912261844321
vishal.randive@karvy.com
VijayalaxmiMoolya
Production
+912261844328
vijayalaxmi.m@karvy.com
StockRatings
Buy
Hold
Sell
:
:
:
AbsoluteReturns
>15%
515%
<5%
Forfurtherenquiriespleasecontact:
research@karvy.com
Tel:+912261844300
DisclosuresAppendix
Analystcertification
The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein
accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their)
compensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontainedinthis
researchreport.
Disclaimer
The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information
containedhereinisbasedonouranalysisanduponsourcesthatweconsiderreliable.We,however,donotvouchforthe
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss
incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors.
Investorsmustmaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsbasedontheirspecificinvestmentobjectivesandfinancialpositionand
usingsuchindependentadvice,astheybelievenecessary.Whileactinguponanyinformationoranalysismentionedinthis
report,investorsmaypleasenotethatneitherKarvynorKarvyStockBrokingnoranypersonconnectedwithanyassociate
companiesofKarvyacceptsanyliabilityarisingfromtheuseofthisinformationandviewsmentionedinthisdocument.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above
mentionedcompaniesfromtimetotime.EveryemployeeofKarvyanditsassociatecompaniesarerequiredtodisclosetheir
individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and
investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this
recommendationhaseitherbeendisplayedorhasbeenforwardedtoclientsofKarvy.Allemployeesarefurtherrestrictedto
place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. This report is intended for a restricted audience and we are not
soliciting any action based on it. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or an
invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities, or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such
securities.
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InstitutionalEquities
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KarvyStockBrokingResearchisalsoavailableon:BloombergKRVY<GO>,ThomsonPublisher&Reuters.