Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Curb speculation in commodities market
Expressing concern over rising global food and commodity prices, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Saturday sought urgent steps at the international level to curtail the diversion of foodgrains for alternative uses. He also called for curbing the role of speculators in the futures market, saying that concerted action needs to be taken against excessive financialisation of commodity prices. Chidambaram was addressing the Development Committee meeting of the World Bank in Tokyo. Rising food and commodity prices have adversely affected growth and social stability, as well as health, nutrition and education in poor countries, he said. Countries need to quickly address the constraints on farm to market, he said. Chidambarams comments come on the heels of corn being used for production of ethanol and funds floated by financial service firms such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, CalPERS and others investing in commodity futures leading to surge in prices. Volatility in the global economy will stay for some time and slower growth in major emerging economies have dimmed prospects of a quick turnaround, Chidambaram said. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Oct 12, 2012

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18675 5676 52.81 91.86 1758

-0.69 -0.56 0.30 -0.23 -0.61

-1.39 -1.23 1.72 2.20 -1.16

5.11 5.83 -4.74 -4.85 1.69

12.79 13.99 7.84 7.55 5.29

Source: Reuters

Heavy Rains Delayed Corn Planting In Argentina

As per Argentina Government, corn planting is less due to persistent heavy rain in key growing regions but corn germination is well in condition. Around 29% of the estimated corn area of 4.97 million hectares has planted in the Argentina till date trailing last season's pace by 3 percentage points. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast that Argentine corn output will rise to 28 million tons in 2012/13 from 21 million tons in the last season. (Source: Agriwatch)

AP to probe sucking pest attack on Bt cotton

The Andhra Pradesh Government will probe the reported attack of sucking pests on Bt cotton in some parts of the State. The Agriculture Minister Kanna Lakshminarayana has directed the officials to initiate a probe by the scientists of Acharya N.G. Ranga Agriculture University (ANGRAU) on the reported damage of Bt cotton crop due to the nagging sucking pests. Reviewing the arrangements for the upcoming rabi season here on Friday evening, he said about 2.75 lakh quintals of groundnut seed would be distributed for the season. The Agriculture Minister will hold a meeting with the Major Irrigation Minister P. Sudarshan Reddy on October 26 on the issue of releasing water for the standing kharif crops in the K C Canal and Krishna Delta areas. The farmers in these areas are demanding immediate release of water to rescue the crop in the absence of rains. (Source: Business Line)

Malaysia's Oct 1-15 palm oil exports up 13 pct -ITS - RTRS

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-15 rose 13.1 percent to 769,534 tonnes from 680,112 tonnes for the Sept. 1-15 period, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Monday. (Source: Reuters)

US soy drops to 3-1/2 month low, corn eases for 2nd day
Chicago soy slid 1.6 percent on Monday, falling below $15 a bushel for the first time since late June , while corn lost more ground, with concerns over global growth fuelling the bearish sentiment arising from slowing U.S. grain exports. Corn has dropped for five out of seven sessions and soybeans have fallen for the past four weeks as demand slows after prices surged to record highs this summer following the worst U.S. drought in 56 years. "It appears that the seasonality continues to be a significant headwind, particularly in the oilseed market," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. (Source: Reuters)

Post-harvest supply chain, poor warehousing bog down agri sector

Agricultural produce to the tune of Rs 50,000-60,000 crore is lost due to poor post-harvest infrastructure and insufficient supply chain management, according to a report on Indian Agribusiness. Most warehouses and logistics providers lack adequate scientific and technical facilities to store and transport perishable commodities such as seafood, fruits, vegetables, the report Indian Agribusiness cultivating future opportunities by Boston Consulting Group said. About 30-40 per cent of horticulture produce is wasted annually due to inadequate storage and transportation facilities, it said, pointing out that the shortfall for warehouse capacity is likely to touch 70 million tonnes (mt) to 80 mt by 2015. The country currently requires 130-140 mt of dry storage for a production of approximately 220 mt of foodgrain, 27 mt of oilseeds, and 35 mt of other cash crops such as cotton, jute, the report said. The postharvest supply chain is one of the critical levers that can resolve some of the key issues plaguing agriculture in the country. On the other hand, it provides a huge opportunity for the private sector to look at a profitable business. (Source: Business Line)

Thai govt rice stocks rise to 14 mln tonne - RTRS

Milled rice stocks held by Thailand's government have risen to 14 million tonnes, up from 12 million tonnes since the extension of its controversial intervention scheme earlier this month, the country's commerce minister said on Saturday. The government has sold 7.3 million tonnes via government-to-government deals and would carry over the remaining 67 million tonnes as food security stocks for next year. "We won't rush to sell all of the stocks. We plan to set aside an amount of 6-7 million tonnes for the country's food security," Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom said in the government's weekly television programme. That would be equivalent to around 70 percent of the country's annual exports in a good year. Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, produces around 21 million tonnes of milled rice annually, half of which is consumed domestically. Around 8-10 million tonnes of its rice is exported. (Source: Reuters)

S.Korea resumes U.S. rice imports after arsenic test - RTRS

South Korea has lifted a suspension of U.S. rice imports and sales, made on concerns about possible contamination with arsenic, after a test showed no significant risk for human consumption, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. South Korea temporarily suspended imports and sales of U.S. rice last month after a U.S. watchdog group urged the United States to set limits for arsenic, a known human carcinogen, in rice.
(Source: Reuters)

Heavy rain outlook maintained for Kerala, Tamil Nadu

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained the heavy rain warning for Kerala and Tamil Nadu for two more days. This is even as the last 24 hours ending Sunday morning witnessed rain at many places over these two States. Wind maps showed that easterly winds that bring the northeast monsoon into the peninsula have established presence over south Bay of Bengal. The arrival of the reverse monsoon is expected to coincide with the declaration of the formal exit by the predecessor southwest monsoon overland. (Source: Business LIne)

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a bullish note on Saturday due to active buying by the market participants ahead of the upcoming festive season as well as tight supplies. The spot as well as the Futures settled 6.82% and 8.36% higher respectively w-o-w. Prices had declined in the month September on improved rains and reports of expected higher output in Australia, the largest supplier of chickpeas to India. In Australia, chana production rose by 70.5 percent to 8.27 lakh tonnes from 4.85 lakh tonnes in previous year. CACP has recommended a hike in minimum support price (MSP) of gram by Rs.200 to Rs.3000 a quintal and Masoor by Rs.100 to Rs.2900 a quintal for upcoming 212-13 Rabi season to boost the production of pulses. As per the statement of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, India has raised the subsidy on imported pulses to Rs. 20/kg from the earlier Rs. 10/kg, this move is expected to increase pulses imports. As per the NCDEX circular dated 1 October, Special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Chana have been withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, October 04, 2012. Good rains in the month of August and September has raise prospects of Rabi pulses sowing in the coming days that would commence soon. Monsoon has recovered across India, especially in Rajasthan, one of the major chana growing states, and may prove beneficial for the chana sowing.
st

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4700 4897 Prev day 3.08 3.07

as on Oct 13, 2012 % change WoW MoM 6.82 1.88 8.36 7.11 YoY 34.29 43.82

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Oct 15, 2012 Resistance 4870-4930

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses as on 21th September, 2012 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. According to the Fourth advance estimates of 2011-12 season, Pulses output is pegged at 17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83 million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)

4720-4765

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to continue to trade on a positive note ahead of festive season demand and tight supplies. However, reports of higher sowing of Rabi pulses this season might pressurize the prices in the medium term. Also, higher imports from Australia may cap the sharp upside in the prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures settled higher by 1.4% last week as reports of lifting curbs on the sugar sector supported the upside. However, the spot remained negative and settled 1.32% lower w-o-w due to sufficient supplies to meet the festive demand. The Government has decided to make available a quantity of 40 lakh tons of non-levy quota, for the months of October and November 2012. Indian mills have signed deals to buy up to 450,000 tonnes of Brazilian raw sugar for delivery from October to December as a gap between domestic and overseas prices widens, making room for the first imports in more than two years, five dealers told Reuters. Millers based in western and southern India and global trading firms bought sugar at around $500/ton a CIF basis, as the price in the domestic market has jumped more than 23% to $680/ tn in the past three months. ICE raw sugar and Liffe white sugar extended further losses and settled 1.96% and 1.86% lower respectively on Friday taking cues from the September Monthly USDA report which showed increase in supplies. Also, higher output and lower imports expectations for the 2012-13 season from China.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3750

as on Oct 13, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.53 -1.32 MoM -1.32 YoY 20.97

Rs/qtl

3400

0.00

1.40

-4.41

21.73

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Oct '12 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 557.8 445.56

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.86 -1.96 -6.25 -6.40 MoM -0.02 1.67 YoY -21.99 #N/A

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Exports

The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop season, up from 50.99 lakh ha on same period a year ago. According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl

valid for Oct 15, 2012 Support 3320-3342 Resistance 3375-3392

Global Sugar Updates

Brazilian cane mills produced 3 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August thanks to dry weather. Unica in its latest report stated said that total sugar output since the start of the crushing season is still down 12 percent from the same period a year ago. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade sideways as any reports on decontrol of sugar sector along with festive demand might provide support to the upside. But weaker international markets as well as higher Quota for the month of October and November might cap the sharp gains.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Futures traded on positive note in the early part
of the week but corrected towards the end of the week on prospects of rise in output ahead of good harvest in India as well as the U.S. However, demand for edible oil ahead of ongoing festive season supported the prices in the spot markets. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.2% and 1% higher w-o-w. As per NCDEX, Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long Side on Soya bean October 2012 expiry contract will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Monday, October 08, 2012. Special margin on soy meal has also been withdrawn w.e.f October 12 2012. CBOT Soybean settled lower on Friday as the demand supply September monthly USDA report made an upward revision in the output and yield of the soybean crop. Thus, CBOT soybean settled 1.68% lower. USDA estimates in its September Monthly demand and supply report pegged 2012/13 u.s. soybean crop at 2.860 bln bu (above trade 2.764), yield at 37.8 bu/ac (above trade 37.006), harvest at acres 75.7 mln (above trade 74.579). Ending stocks are seen down from 169 million bushels in 2011-12 to 115 million bushels in 201213 season. In Brazil planting has started 10 days earlier amid good rains. If rains continue in the coming weeks as forecast, Brazil could churn out 81 million tonnes of oilseed and replace the drought-stricken US as the world's top soybean producer, according to the USDA. Brazils grain Association expects the number 2 producers of soybean to produce record 81.3 mn tn in 2012-13. In the domestic markets, as on 20 September, 2012, Oilseeds have been sown in 174.39 lakh ha so far, compared with 178.16 lakh ha same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 106.9 lakh ha. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13. However, drop in area under groundnut, sunflower & castor seed may lead to lower output of these oilseeds in 2012-13 which is estimated 9.6% lower at 187.8 lakh tn. Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled lower taking cues from the international market, while MCX CPO also settled lower as Malaysian government said that it might stop duty free export of palm oil from Jan 2013. According Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the ending stocks for palm oil increased by 17.24% for September. Also, Malaysia has approved a plan to cut crude palm oil (CPO) export taxes from 23 percent per tonne Although, exports are high the overall stocks of Malaysian palm oil are higher on the back of seasonally higher yield. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-25 rose 8 percent to 1,170,720 tonnes from 1,084,343 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-25. Indias edible oil imports should rise 5.4 percent to a record 10.31 million tonnes in 2012/13, with the entire increase met by palm oil. India imported 112,611 tn of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28 percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328 tn, up from 783,315 tn in the previous month (Source: Sea of India). Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard futures settled up by 0.47% due to supply tightness amid lower output. Mustard output was lower in 2011-12. However, on the back of higher returns and improved rains, next years output is expected to be better. Outlook Edible oil complex is expected to trade sideways taking cues from the weak international Oilseed market and USDAs monthly demand supply USDA report for September. However due to good quantity new crop arrivals of soybean hitting the market, sharp upside might be capped for short term.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3191 3170 672.7 665.2 Prev day -0.16 -1.58 -0.32 -0.26

as on Oct 13, 2012 % Change WoW 3.20 0.99 2.51 4.00 MoM -27.05 -14.17 -15.45 -16.31
Source: Reuters

YoY 46.51 43.93 6.86 7.33

as on Oct 12, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTOct '12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1523 49.89 Prev day -1.68 -1.95 WoW -1.87 -1.71 MoM -11.12 -10.85
Source: Reuters

YoY 29.30 0.06

Crude Palm Oil

as on Oct 13, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 1.13 -1.77 7.07 0.73

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Oct '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Oct '12 Futures

Last 2407 415.5

MoM -15.01 -20.74

YoY -14.34 -13.31

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4225 4098 Prev day 0.60 0.47

as on Oct 13, 2012 WoW 6.29 5.08 MoM 1.93 -3.10

Source: Reuters

YoY 43.22 33.92

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Oct 15, 2012 Support 629-635 3070-3110 4065-4115 407-413 Resistance 648-654 3200-3240 4195-4225 424-428

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper futures traded on a positive note last week due to festive demand. However, improving arrivals in the spot markets kept prices under check towards the end of the week. Farmers are unwilling to sell their stocks at lower levels. Expectations of improvement in weather conditions as well as better output in Indonesia have also capped sharp gains. Traders are buying pepper directly from the farmers. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.8% and 1.52% higher w-o-w. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,500/tonne(C&F) while Indonesia Austa is quoted at $6,750/tonne (FOB). Vietnam was offering 550GL at $6,900/tonne. As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 42520 43660 % Change Prev day -0.10 -0.47

as on Oct 13, 2012 WoW 0.48 1.52 MoM 2.37 3.13 YoY 24.00 29.71

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Nov contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June 2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Oct Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Oct 15, 2012 Support 43000-43300 Resistance 43850-44050

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 180 tonnes while offtakes were 200 tonnes on Saturday. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper may trade on a sideways note with a positive bias today. Low supplies in the domestic markets as well as festive season demand are expected to support prices. However, reports that FMC has asked NCDEX to find out any irregularities in pepper trade may cap sharp upside.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a positive to bullish note last week due to buying by exporters. Expectations of better export figures have also supported the prices. However, reports of higher carryover stocks as compared to last year restricted sharp gains in the spot markets. Good rains in Gujarat, thereby expectations of better sowing prospects ahead of the rabi sowing have also pressurized the prices in the spot market. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.98% and 5.61% higher respectively w-o-w. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Around 10 lakh bags of Jeera are reported across India. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,750 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14782 14783 Prev day 1.42 4.01

as on Oct 13, 2012 % Change WoW 1.98 5.61 MoM 0.05 3.65 YoY 0.15 2.72

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Nov contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 4,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 4,000 bags on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -0.95

as on Oct 13, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5180 5422

WoW -2.07 -1.38

MoM -10.48 -10.94

YoY -8.17 6.86

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to continue to trade upwards today. Prices may find support at lower levels on expectations of higher export figures. However, good rains in Gujarat and higher carryover stocks may cap any sharp gains. In the medium term (October-November 2012), prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Nov contract

Turmeric
Turmeric prices traded on a negative note last week due to lack of buying by the market participants. Higher stocks with the stockists also pressurized the prices. However, a reduction in the special cash margin on the long side supported the prices at lower levels. Turmeric has been sown in 0.57 lakh hectares in A.P as on 03/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 2.74% and 1.38% lower w-o-w. Special Cash Margin of 40% on the Long side shall be reduced to 20% (cash) on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Turmeric w.e.f. beginning of day Wednesday, September 26, 2012.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 3,000 bags and 5000 bags respectively on Thursday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Oct 15, 2012 Support 14620-14800 5340-5390 Resistance 15150-15320 5490-5530

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade downwards today. Stockists are not buying actively, which may pressurize prices. However, a reduction in the special cash margin, lower sowing figures and lower arrivals may support prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| October 15, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas on Saturday closed marginally higher by 0.11% on account of short coverings after after falling for straight 2-3 sessions. ICE cotton Futures closed up by 0.92%. Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 14% is harvested as compared to 10% a week ago, versus 15% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 42% in Good/Excellent state as compared to 43% a week ago, and 29% same period a year ago.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 932.5 15960

as on Oct 13, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.11 2.08 -0.19 0.44 MoM -5.47 0.44 YoY -11.73

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

As on 28 September, 2012, Cotton is being planted on 114 lakh hectares, down, as compared to the last years 119.6 lakh hectares. However, the acreage so far is at par with its normal area of 111.8 lakh hectares. According to the First Advance Estimates, Cotton production for 2012-13 seasons is revised upward to 334 lakh bales compared with 352 lakh bales in 2011-12 season. Also, on account of cheaper cotton available in the global markets, imports have more than double from 5 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales. According to the latest CAB report as on 04 October 2012, exports have dipped sharply by 46% to 7 million bales in the 2012/13 marketing year that began on Oct. 1 compared to 12.7 million bales estimated for 201112 season. The ending stocks figure, has been revised further upward to 3.4 million bales as compared to 2.8 million bales estimated for August 2011-12 season
st

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 71.36 81.35

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.92 1.32 0.00 0.00 MoM -2.02 0.00 YoY -28.90 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Global cotton prices are mainly influenced by China, US and India. USDA estimated US Cotton planting for the season 2012-13 at 12.64 mln acres as compared to 14.74 mln acres last season (2011-12). Ending stocks were at 4.8 mln bales (480 pounds/bales) with Production of 17.65 mln bales and exports of 12.1 mln bales were pegged for the season 2012-13.
Source: Telequote

In its October monthly demand supply report on Thursday, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop seson to 17.29 mln bales (prev 17.11) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 5.30). Exports were down to 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 11.80). China's 2012/13 cotton crop is estimated at 31.50 mln bales up from prev estimates of 31.00 mln bales given in September, imports 11.00 mln bales down from previous estimates of 12.00 million bales, consumption was pegged at 36.00 mln bales (down from prev 38.00 million bales), end stocks 36.61 mln bales (up from prev 35.51 mln bales)

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Kapas futures in intraday is expected to trade sideways with negative bias taking cues from the weaker international markets. Prices might take support at lower levels as farmers are not willing to sell their produce at lower levels. Besides, prices in spot market are nearing its MSP, which would restrict any major fall. In the international front, cotton harvesting has begun globally which might cap a sharp upside in medium term. Also, prices might have taken cues from the USDA monthly demand supply report which showed higher ending stocks for 2012-13 season.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX October Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Oct 15, 2012 Support 915-922 912-920 15680-15850 Resistance 945-960 941-956 16080-16250

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