Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 5

April 22, 2012

look to buy a few shares (I'll update at the Forums as it happens) for the Permanent Portfolio. However, if first 136.74 trips off? I will simply wait for a bottom pattern to develop. GLD: Gold is entering a multi-month seasonal weak period. Unless price action determines that this seasonal tendency will not prove true this year, I'm not looking to buy the GLD for Permanent Portfolio. I would consider above the 163.34 enough of a reason to purchase on a contra-seasonal basis. SHY: As with the TLT, I am watching Bonds heavily. I'd really like to see the chart fall a bit (yields increase) before May. My high alert is at 84.45 or above. If that alert is tripped off, then I may purchase some of the SHY for the Permanent Portfolio. I would keep such thoughts updated on the Subscriber area of the forums. If 84.40 or below occurs, then I will simply wait for a bottom pattern to emerge. TLT: As with the SHY, I am watching Bonds heavily. I'd really like to see the chart fall a bit (yields increase) before May. My high alert is at 117.71 or above. If that alert is tripped off, then I may purchase some of the TLT for the Permanent Portfolio. I would keep such thoughts updated on the Subscriber area of the forums. If 116.18 or below occurs, then I will simply wait for a bottom pattern to emerge. No further dividend investing purchases this next week. However, we are enjoying nice yield in the dividend investing portfolio, for as small as the account is.

Aileron Market Balance


Visit Us: NoNonsenseTrading.com Email: aileronmarketbalance@gmail.com

This

issue of the newsletter marks a change in the evolution of Aileron Market Balance. We are going to try a little experiment. Now, each newsletter on Sunday that will contain my thoughts for the week ahead will have an audio file that accompanies it. The audio file will contain my detailed thoughts moving forward into the next week. This PDF file is meant to serve as a rough, general outline to the audio file that many subscribers are finding more advantageous.

Investing Outlook Outlook:


Note: As a reminder. the share purchases of the Dividend Investing 'Sister' will be extremely small. It is my intent to demonstrate how to grow the size of these positions from 2 shares, to 300 shares using the three sisters portfolio management style. The Dividend Investing 'Sister' Account will also implement the Permanent Portfolio Method with $1,120.00 of the cash within it, but will impliment this method.

Permanent Portfolio: My thoughts from last week stand as I mention in the accompanying Audio File. TLT, SHY, SPY and GLD. They all have parameters that have not yet been filled. SPY: My alert is at 139.44 or above, in which case I'd

April 22, 2012

Trading Outlook:
Note: By way of reminder, since the Model Portfolio has only $10,230.91 in the Commodity Futures and Stock Trading portion of the portfolio, there will only be 'brief day trades' at this stage of the game for Commodity Futures trading in order to escape the risk of over-leveraged gap opens in the commodity futures markets. This is an attempt to demonstrate how account size relates to trading style. As I mention in my methodology series1, as the 'trading sister' approaches $30,000 I will graduate the account into 'swing-trading' and demonstrate how I would go about doing this. Stock trades may last more than one day. The Forex account has $65.85 and is considered a micro-forex account for the purposes of the model portfolio.

Summary of the A.M.B. Model Portfolio


Note: In the beginning of this hypothetical portfolio, the share purchases of the Dividend Investing 'Sister' will be extremely small. It is my intent to demonstrate how to grow the size of these positions from 2 shares, to 300 shares using the three sisters portfolio management style. It is also understood that readers of this newsletter have a firm understanding of my 'three sisters' portfolio management system (See the Special Reference issue of Aileron Market Balance 2 for an explanation of this system).

S&P 500 Year to Date: +9.5060 % AMB Total Portfolio Return Year to Date: + X.XX % Keep in mind that we are moving the reservations for Permanent Portfolio purchases to the Dividend Investing sister account ... Investing Account Balance: $4,091.25 Return / Yield up + 0.8479 % Year to date 4.063508 shares of PEP (DRIP on Yield is 3.12 % )
4 shares at $63.31 on 11/15/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.032263 shares DRIP at $66.95 on 1/3/2012 0.032145 shares DRIP at $66.25 on 3/30/2012

Stock Market:
Waste Management (WM): Watching for this market to stall in the price range of the last two days, and with such a 'stall', looking to possibly buy a July 36 Put. I'll keep these thoughts updated on the forums.

Commodity Futures Trading Thoughts


Commodity Futures Market #1 July Wheat (WN12 or /ZWN2 in ThinkorSwim): I'm going to say that for now, just watching for a developing bottoming patterns, so that as the date of the 28th draws closer, I may look to go long and buy this market. I'll keep my thoughts updated each morning. For now I'm just watching it.

4.032392 shares of PG (DRIP on Yield is 3.11 % )


4 shares at $61.94 on 11/28/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.32392 shares DRIP at $64.83 on 2/15/2012

4.035 shares of JNJ (DRIP on Yield is 3.58 %)


4 shares at $62.31 on 11/28/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.035 shares at $65.14 on 3/13/2012

Forex Market Methodology Creation


Stay tuned to my thoughts tomorrow, Monday morning regarding possible Forex trades. I will allow the London open to occur first, before I begin looking for trades. I was served up a big loss in the last trade. I'm still profitable since the reboot, but only by 0.40%. It moved my unit size, back down to 70 units for the next trade.

8.081305 shares of WM (DRIP on Yield is 3.95 % )


8 shares at $32.39 on 12/22/2011 w/ $5.01 Commissions 0.081305 shares DRIP at $34.93 on 3/23/2012

Cash: $3,000.61 ( 73.34 % )


Percentages of that Cash - $1,880.61 of this cash I reserve for 'maneuvering' capital / hedging / new purchases (62.67 % ) - $1,120.00 of this cash I reserve for Permanent Portfolio Purchases ( 37.33 % ) - $280.00 Reserved for GLD position - $280.00 Reserved for SPY position - $280.00 Reserved for TLT position - $280.00 Reserved for SHY position -$80.00 of this Maneuvering Capital I reserve to Dollar Cost Average PEP further in the future ( 2.66 % )

1 Exact Link http://nononsensetrading.com/methodology.html

2 Exact Link http://www.scribd.com/doc/73238645/Aileron-MarketBalance-Special-Reference-Issue-Portfolio-Management

April 22, 2012


-$80.00 of this cash I reserve to Dollar Cost Average PG further in the future ( 2.66 % ) -$80.00 of this cash I reserve to Dollar Cost Average JNJ further in the future ( 2.66 % ) -$80.00 of this cash I reserve to Dollar Cost Average WM further in the future ( 2.66 % )

Futures 'Sister' Account Year to Date

$505.14 ( 12.35 % of this account ) available from Slush Fund Dividend Investing Sister Year to Date

My current money management stats for that account is .

Stock / Futures / Forex Trading Balance: $10,296.76 ( Return / Yield up + 8.543 % Year to Date ) We had some futures trades last week. For the first time this year, we now have two consecutive losses on the commodity futures side ...
Short 1 DXM2 from 80.165 to 80.105 PROFIT $53.00 on 4/16/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Short 1 YGM2 from 1650.60 to 1653 LOSS $79.68 on 4/16/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Short 1 YGM2 from 1651.80 to 1651.70 LOSS $3.72 on 4/16/2012 (including commissions of $7.04)

Commodity Futures and Stock Balance: $10,230.91 Return / Yield up + 8.631 % Year to Date Next Re-Distribution Goal: $10,700.00 Original 3% risk tolerance gives us approximately $282.54 for my drawdown tolerance. $505.14 available from Slush Fund

April 22, 2012


We also had a few of Micro-Forex trades Forex 'Sister' Account Year to Date

Long 170 EUR/USD @ 1.3029(4) on 4/17/2012 Exit 170 @ 1.3009(6) LOSS of 19.8 Pips $0.3366 Long 170 EUR/USD @ 1.3118(7) on 4/17/2012 Exit 170 @ 1.3148(6) LOSS of 29.89 Pips $0.5083

Micro-Forex Balance: $65.85 Return / Yield -3.488 % Year to Date $505.14 available from Slush Fund Micro-Forex money management stats Savings Side-Pocket Account Balance: $2,033.37 Return / Yield up +0.2959 % Year to Date $505.14 for a Slush fund / Drawdown Kill Switch fund $1,010.29 for a Base Savings
Percentages of that Cash: $814.29 of this cash reserved for Long Term Variable Capital PP - ( 80.60 % ) $120.00 of this cash reserved for CD Ladder creation ( 11.88 % ) - One $10.00 One Year CD purchased on 11/21/2011 at 0.60% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 12/21/2011 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 1/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 2/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 3/21/2012 at 0.50% - One $10.00 One Year CD Purchase on 4/21/2012 at 0.50% $20.00 of this cash reserved for the first side-pocket purchase ( 1.98 % ) $20.00 of this cash I reserve for the second sidepocket purchase ( 1.98 % ) $36.00 of this cash I reserve for the hedging account ( 3.563 % )

$505.14 for Emergency Savings Getting Paid Fund: $12.80 Total Portfolio Balance: $16,421.39 - Total Inception to Date Return: + 9.476 % Return / Yield up + 5.465 % year to date) S&P 500 Year to Date: + 9.5060 %

April 22, 2012

If you have any questions regarding my personal outlook, or any other comments, please feel free to contact me at dan.shy@gmail.com or aileronmarketbalance@gmail.com. I will say that if you have questions about your own trading and you want to ask for my input? Please include your most recent money management performance statistics in any email correspondence.
Until next time, stay safe trade well, and remember that loving other people doesn't cost a dime.
Note: I, the author do not grant this work for wide distribution beyond any single individual subscriber as this publication is protected by U.S. And International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means except as permitted under the original subscription agreement or with prior written permission. The above statements should not be construed as an investment or trading recommendation. Aileron Market Balance is a newsletter that allows subscribers to look 'over my shoulder' as it were, for my own personal specific trading and investing ideas and thoughts for the next week. But they are only thoughts as of the moment of publication, and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that I will enter, or have entered any of the trading or investing ideas that I discuss in this newsletter; as larger accounts may require a different strategy as the ones presented here. Any trades or investments that I discuss within this newsletter are simply my own thoughts regarding my own investing and trading outlook. I discuss which trades I take and do not take on the No Nonsense Trading Forums, as well as the Ventrilo Voice Server. Remember that entering any market is an individual decision. This newsletter simply contains my trading and investing thoughts for the next week. I personally only enter any market after watching and reading the tape and I trade using money management principles3. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle and market, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 16 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Model Portfolio accounts are hypothetical accounts,with all of the inherent problems therein, which are used within this newsletter in an attempt to track the results of this newsletter, and is run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, due diligence, and tolerance for risk. Any pictures used within this newsletter are believed to be public domain. Any charts that are displayed using the ThinkorSwim platform, and other pictures were obtained through Wikipedia's public domain policy.

Exact Link - http://nononsensetrading.com/MoneyManagement.html

Вам также может понравиться