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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| October 18, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| October 18, 2012

International Commodities
Overview
US Building Permits increased by 0.89 million in September. Chinas GDP grew at slow pace of 7.4 percent in the last quarter. UK's Claimant Count Change declined by 4,000 in last month. LME Copper inventories rose by 6.5 percent in yesterdays trade. th US crude oil inventories increased 2.86 mn bbl for w/e 12 Oct - EIA. UKs Unemployment Rate declined to 7.9 percent in August.

Market Highlights (% change)


Last INR/$ (Spot)
52.85

as on 17 October, 2012

Prev day
-0.1

w-o-w
0.3

m-o-m
2.2

y-o-y
-6.7

Asian markets are trading on firm note as Chinese GDP growth was in line with economist estimates and industrial production also remained on a positive note along with favorable data from the US economy. US Building Permits increased by 0.89 million in September as against a previous rise of 0.80 million in August. Housing Starts rose by 0.87 million in September from earlier rise of 0.76 million in August. Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at slow pace of 7.4 percent in Q3 of 2012 as against a rise of 7.6 percent in Q2 of 2012. Fixed Asset Investment increased by 20.5 percent in September from previous rise of 20.2 percent in August. Industrial Production increased by 9.2 percent in September as compared to earlier rise of 8.9 percent in August. Retail Sales also grew by 14.2 percent in September with respect to rise of 13.2 percent a month ago. US Dollar Index continued to witness further weakness and ended 0.5 percent on the back of rise in the risk appetite amongst the market participants as favorable home sales data indicating that the economy is on the path of recovery. This led to decline in the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). US equities ended on positive note taking cues from better than expected home sales data that created upbeat market sentiments. The currency touched a low of 78.97 and closed at 79.06 levels on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated marginally taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets after favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Further, rising foreign inflows also supported an upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 52.67 and closed at 52.87 on Wednesday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 10,909.80 crores till 17 October 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. th 93,240.60 crores till 17 October 2012.
th

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3117

0.5

1.9

0.5

-4.5

Dollar Index

79.06

-0.5

-1.2

-0.1

2.1

NIFTY

5660.3

0.2

0.1

1.1

12.4

SENSEX

18610.8

0.2

-0.1

0.6

11.1

DJIA

13557.0

0.0

1.6

-0.2

17.1

S&P

1460.91

0.4

2.0

0.0

21.6

Source: Reuters

Euro continued to extend gains of the previous day on speculation that Spain might seek for a bailout and as Spain retains investment grade credit rating from Moodys credit rating agency. Additionally weakness in the DX supported upside in the currency. The currency touched a high of 1.3139 and closed at 1.3117 on Wednesday. UK's Claimant Count Change declined by 4,000 in September as against a previous decline of 15,000 in August. Unemployment Rate declined to 7.9 percent in August from previous rise of 8.1 percent a month ago. Average Earnings Index increased by 1.7 percent in August as compared to earlier rise of 1.5 percent in prior month.

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| October 18, 2012

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices gained 0.1 percent taking cues positive economic data from the US economy and optimism that the nation is on the path of recovery. Additionally, weakness in the DX also added to the gains of the gold prices. The yellow metal touched a high of $1,753.20 per ounce and closed at $1749.69 per ounce. In the domestic markets MCX Gold prices gained 0.3 percent taking cues from firmness in the spot gold prices along with demand from the local buyers amidst festivals. MCX Gold prices touched a high of Rs. 31163 per 10 gms and closed at Rs.31140 per l0 gms in yesterdays session.
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot -Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Dec12) MCX Gold (Dec12) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last
1749.7

as on 17 October, 2012 Prev day


0.1

WoW
-0.7

MoM
-1.1

YoY
5.8

30900.0

0.5

-1.1

-2.7

16.4

1749.0

0.1

-0.7

-1.0

7.2

$/oz Rs /10 gms

1751.5

0.4

-0.7

-1.0

6.0

31140.0

0.3

-1.0

-2.7

17.1

Silver
Spot silver prices ended 0.7 percent higher taking cues from bullishness in the spot gold prices along with strength in the base metals pack. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the silver prices on Wednesday. The white metal touched a high of $33.25 per ounce and closed at $33.16 per ounce in yesterdays session. In the domestic market MCX silver prices gained 0.9 percent tracking spot prices. MCX silver prices touched a high of Rs.60,640 per kg and ended at Rs.60,574 per kg on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot -Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Dec12) MCX Silver (Dec12) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg $/oz $/ oz Rs / kg Last
33.2 60906.0 3303.0

Source: Reuters

as on 17 October, 2012 WoW


-2.4 -1.0 -2.2

Prev day
0.7 0.6 0.7

MoM
-4.1 -2.8 -4.7

YoY
3.6 15.8 6.5

3319.7

0.8

-2.6

-3.8

4.4

Outlook
In todays session we expect precious metals to trade with upward bias on the back of upbeat global market sentiments taking cues from favourable data from the Chinese economy. However, strength in DX is expected to cap sharp gains in todays session. In the domestic market, depreciation in the domestic currency along with demand from local buyers is expected to keep the MCX gold prices firm. Technical Outlook
Unit valid for October 18, 2012 Support Resistance

60574.0

0.9

-2.6

-6.1

14.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Spot Gold MCX Gold Dec12 Spot Silver MCX Silver Dec12

$/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg

1746/1742 31060/30990 33.01/32.80 60200/59800

1754/1758 31200/31270 33.34/33.51


Source: Telequote

60800/61100

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| October 18, 2012

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices traded on a flat note today taking cues from favourable economic data from the US coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of more than expected rise in US crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $92.85/bbl and closed at $92.10/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 0.2 percent and closed at Rs.4,868/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.4912/bbl on Wednesday. However, appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report last night, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected by 2.86 million barrels to th 369.20 million barrels for the week ending on 12 October 2012. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.72 million barrels to 197.10 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles drop by 2.20 million barrels to 118.70 million barrels for the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Nov12) ICE Brent Crude (Nov12) MCX Crude (Oct12) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last
92.0 114.2

as on 17 October, 2012 WoW


0.9 -2.0

Prev. day
-0.1 -1.8

MoM
0.1 5.1

YoY
4.3 1.9

$/bbl

92.1

0.0

1.0

0.2

4.3

$/bbl

113.2

-1.6

-1.0

4.6

1.9

Rs/bbl

4868.0

0.2

-0.3

-6.0

12.1

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)


Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Oct12)

as on 17 October, 2012

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last
3.48 183.4

Prev. day
1.22 0.88

WoW
-0.09 -1.40

MoM
20.62 18.02

YoY
-5.46 1.27

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Nymex Crude Oil

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 46 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 12th October 2012. Outlook
Source: Telequote

We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on the back of positive data from the Chinese and US economy indicating nations on the path of recovery. However, sufficient US stockpiles along with strength in the DX is likely to exert downside pressure on the crude oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Oct12 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for October 18, 2012

Technical Chart Nymex Natural Gas

Support 91.60/90.90 4840/4800

Resistance 93.0/93.70 4910/4945

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| October 18, 2012

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, decline in the LME inventories apart from Copper also supported an upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Nov12) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Oct12) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Oct12) Rs /kg
906.9 1.5 -3.4 -6.0 -4.1

as on 17 October, 2012 WoW


0.6

Last
8212.0

Prev. day
0.9

MoM
-1.7

YoY
10.3

$/tonne

Rs/kg

439.2

1.1

0.4

-4.1

19.2

$/tonne

1987.0

1.5

-1.0

-7.0

-10.1

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metals complex increased by 0.9 percent yesterday on the back of upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of rise in LME copper inventories by 6.5 percent which stood at 224,450 tonnes. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $8,233/tonne and closed at $8,212/tonne in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices gained by 1.1 percent and closed at Rs.439.20/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.436/kg on Wednesday. Outlook Base metal prices in todays session are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from favourable industrial production, retail sales data from the Chinese economy and home sales data from US. However, strength in the DX might cap sharp gains in the base metal prices. However, in the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian rupee will act as a supportive factor for the base metals prices on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Nov12 MCX Zinc Oct12 MCX Lead Oct12 MCX Aluminum Oct12 MCX Nickel Oct12 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for October 18, 2012 Support 437/434 100.0/99.40 113.20/112.50 103.80/103.20 897/890 Resistance 441/444 101.20/101.90 114.70/115.40 105.10/105.80 914/921

Rs /kg

104.4

1.2

-1.5

-9.3

-3.5

$/tonne

17140.0

1.6

-2.9

-3.5

-10.6

LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Oct12) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Oct12)

$/tonne

2157.5

1.6

-1.8

-4.7

11.0

Rs /kg

114.0

1.7

-2.1

-6.9

19.5

$/tonne

1924.5

0.9

-2.7

-9.3

2.4

Rs /kg

100.5

0.9

-3.3

-11.7

8.7

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 17th October
224,450 5,058,250 127,956 1,059,650 297,250

16th October
210,725 5,065,800 128,544 1,061,175 300,425

Actual Change
13,725 -7,550 -588 -1,525 -3,175

(%) Change
6.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -1.1 Source: Reuters

Technical Chart MCX Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


Thursday| October 18, 2012

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y NBS Press Conference EU Economic Summit Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Country China China China China Euro UK Euro US US

Time (IST) 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am Day 1 2:00pm Tentative 6:00pm 7:30pm

Actual 7.4% 20.5% 9.2% -

Forecast 7.4% 20.2% 9.0% 0.4% 367K 1.3

Previous 7.6% 20.2% 8.9% -0.2% 5.67/2.8 339K -1.9

Impact High Medium Medium Medium High High High High High

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