You are on page 1of 8

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

THE TUESDAY, JANUARY 3rd, WEEKLY UPDATE


We're now at that time of the year when so many investors, and some market advisors, like to "peer into the future," DJI - 12217.56 and guess what the New Year has in store for us. But those of you who have been with us for quite a while know SPX - 1257.60 that that is not the way we "play the game." Our approach is to constantly reevaluate things as "cards come out of COMP - 2605.15 the deck," and deal with the probabilities as they present themselves. Happily, that approach led to us being bullish NDX - 2277.83 from September of 2010 into the April 2011 top. Thereafter, as you'll recall, in May, we turned quite negative on RUT - 740.92 the market's outlook, and except for that intermediate term positive signal that we flashed in early October, we've been cautious ever since - and we still are. In the meantime, a further reason to spend less time "guessing" about the future course of the market is provided by just looking at what took place in the S&P 500 Index (SPX - cash) over the past year. This blue chip gauge closed 2010 at a reading of 1257.64, and now, one year later, its final reading for 2011 is 1257.60!!! So, without probing beneath the surface, a cursory glance would have you think that not much took place in the past year. However, all of us who have been on "the firing lines" know that nothing could be further from the truth. Besides the market exhibiting historic volatility (which we expect to continue as we move into the New Year), plenty of issues which we were bearish on in the past several months got hit "big time," such as Amazon.com, Bank of America, Citigroup, Ctrip.com Intl., Goldman Sachs Group, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Netflix, Sina Corp., Sohu.com, etc., as well as dozens of other issues. At the same time, many of our most favored issues (especially in the blue chip area) did quite nicely. This "split and divergent" action reinforces what we've been telling you for the past several months, which is that "in this difficult and challenging environment, we have to do a whole lot more than simply talk about the market, if we're going to continue to do well." And the way the charts look as we move into the New Year, we expect to see a continuation of this "two-way tape" so, as we've also been stressing for the past several months, it's imperative that you remain "neurotically disciplined." With that said, let's now turn our attention to the market's longer term outlook which, of course, is the most important trend of all, which we still view as being in a neutral position. In the meantime, despite all the "wiggles and jiggles" that continue to take place on the tape, not much has changed as far as this trend is concerned, as things remain "mixed," as can be seen by examining our proprietary S&P Survey (the percentage of stocks that are technically healthy - in Stages 1&2 - in that key universe), which is unchanged this week, at a reading of 54%. As we told you last time, "while that is the best figure since late May," it's still far below the long term bullish threshold (70% or higher). In the same vein, our Secondary Survey also didn't budge, as it, too, is unchanged from last week's figure of 47% (and, as we stressed last time, "the fact that it continues to lag behind the S&P Survey is a sign that, short term rallies aside, and excluding things that you may want to 'rent' for a quick January 'pop,' our most favored big cap issues are a far better place to be playing"). In the meantime, another sign of the continuing "mixed" nature of this tape can be seen by noting that the Dow is the only one of the popular averages that continues to trade above its 200 day moving average (while the SPX - cash - is slightly below its longer term MA, and the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 2000 Index - COMP and RUT, respectively - are still well below their respective 200 day moving averages). And, while we're on the subject of these longer term moving averages, remember what we told you last time, which was that "it will be important to see if all of the indexes can move above their longer term MA's in the coming sessions, or whether we'll once again be treated to yet another negative divergence." If the resistance provided by these longer term moving averages can't be overcome in the next week or two and, instead, these indexes start to break below their short term support levels (which we'll give you later on in this summary), as well as their respective 50 day moving averages, that would be an important setback, and would indicate that a more serious correction is getting ready to get underway. So, as we've been stressing for the past several weeks, there are obviously still "plenty of mixed signals to be aware of." At the same time, it's even more concerning that there are still the outright negative long term signals that continue to be given off by indicators such as our Glamour Average, which remains in a toppy and vulnerable Stage 3 position (note that this average dragged "big time" on the "Santa Claus rally," and is currently at a reading of 5569 - and if, at any point "down the road," it breaks down and closes below 5088, that will indicate that it's moving into Stage 4A, and that would be an important negative signal, not only for this average, but for the overall long term trend). Furthermore, it's also not "thrilling" that our World Market Index continues to display such poor relative strength, even as it undergoes its latest short term rally (it's also important to note that, while the SPX was unchanged for the past year, this area, which we've been so negative on, was actually down 8% during the past 12 months). Finally, it's also unfavorable for this trend that the Mutual Fund Cash Ratio is still quite low (at 4%), and that
The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 2


Margin Debt continues to contract, as it has now declined in 6 out of the past 7 reporting periods. So it should be obvious why we continue to stress that, until our Weight of the Evidence shows significant improvement, we want you to continue to treat this tape in a very cautious and defensive manner. Nevertheless, as we've also been stressing for the past several weeks, it's important to note that "there are a few long term 'early warning' positives that we should be aware of," such as the favorable action being displayed by our Eleven O'clock indicator (but even this gauge, from a near term point of view, continues to correct sharply). In addition, our Alert Indicator (AAA bond yields/13 week Tbill rates) remains in a favorable position (although, near term, it, too, is now pulling back) while, at the same time, Corporate Insider selling is still relatively low (its latest 8 week figure is down to 2.64). In addition, our New Offerings gauge is now down to a reading of 25, which is the lowest such figure since late August of 2009. Finally, it's also positive that the DJ Utility Average remains in a solid Stage 2 uptrend. So, as we told you last time, "it's obvious, when you carefully sift through our Weight of the Evidence, why we continue to stress that things are in such a 'mixed' and 'split' state." OK, now that we've examined the market's longer term outlook in detail, let's turn our attention to the intermediate term trend, which we still view as being in a neutral position. Here, too, things are "mixed," as can be seen by the fact that, on the negative side of this ledger, for the 31st straight week, there are once again more unfavorably rated than favorably rated groups in today's update (although, at the same time, it is encouraging shorter term that, for the second straight week, our more sensitive buy/sell ratio shows that there are more buy recommendations than sells in today's update). In the meantime, it's also a problem for this trend that, despite the "Santa Claus rally," all three (NYSE, ASE, and OTC) of our Most Active Stocks gauges continue to lag badly (the NYSE figure is at a reading of -9, while its OTC counterpart is in even worse shape, at -17). This shows that "big money" is still refusing to aggressively play this rally (but, as we told you last time, "it's obvious that they are doing buying in our most bullishly-rated areas, which remain Foods, Pharmaceuticals, Restaurants, Tobacco, Utilities, and select REITS"). Furthermore, it's also negative that all three of our 30 day New High-New Low moving averages have continued to lag badly throughout this latest rally (but, here, too, note that the "split" action that we've been telling you to expect is making itself felt, as many of our more defensive favorites, such as the Pharmaceutical and Utility issues that we've been bullish on, are helping the NYSE figures to do far better than the OTC New High-New Low figures, which are still in terrible shape - note that, despite the latest rally, there have been more new 52-week lows than new yearly highs in "Nasdaq-land" in 38 out of the past 43 sessions). Finally, it's also a sign to "go slow" that, according to the Investors Intelligence survey, the percentage of bullish market advisors is now up to a reading of 50.5%, which is the highest such figure since mid-May! So, even though there are some positives for this trend, such as the fact that all of the popular averages continue to hold well above their intermediate term danger levels (note that, in a moment, we're going to raise those levels), and that most of the market indexes continue to trade above their respective 50 day moving averages (but, sticking with the "mixed" nature of this tape, that statement isn't true for the COMP). So, as we've been stressing for the past few weeks, "with such mixed signals, it's not surprising that the market has responded with the 'range-bound' action that we've been treated to." But, as we've also told you, "such action won't last forever," and here are some new intermediate term levels which should help show us if this trend is budging off "dead center." On the upside, a close above those four intermediate term resistance levels that we spoke about last time - SPX (cash) 1294; Dow 12,400; COMP 2755; and RUT 770 - would signal the strong likelihood that, despite the incredible "cross-currents" that are knocking this tape back and forth, the intermediate term trend is finally turning moderately positive. Conversely, a close, at any time in the coming weeks, now below the following four new intermediate danger levels would indicate that this trend is running into serious trouble, and is turning negative once again. Those four intermediate term danger levels to now focus on are: SPX (cash) 1200; Dow 11,730; COMP 2515; and RUT 705. OK, now that we've carefully studied both the intermediate and longer term trends, let's turn our attention to the "whippy" shorter term outlook. As anticipated the "Santa Claus rally" arrived on schedule, but it was far from being of "A+" quality (note how poorly many issues which have been on our sell list acted throughout the advance, such as Agrium Inc., BMC Software, Deckers Outdoor, IPG Photonics, Level 3 Communications, Shutterfly, Sina Corp., Solera Holdings, Zagg Inc., etc.). In addition, we gave you four short term resistance levels last time to focus on, which we said "should tell us whether or not this latest advance will 'get legs' in the coming sessions, or will once again run into trouble as it moves into the area of heavy supply that is just overhead." As things turned out, the rally hit a "stone wall," and a short term "negative divergence" was flashed on Tuesday (12/27), as the Dow was the only average that moved above (even on an intraday basis) its resistance level of 12,300. [The SPX (cash) failed right beneath its 1270 level (the
The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 3


actual intraday high was 1269.37), and the RUT failed below its 764 level, while the COMP didn't even get close to reaching its 2676 resistance level (the best that it could achieve was a move up to 2633)]. So, not surprisingly, the rest of the week was boring, and "nothing to write home about." For a sign that this trend (which is now currently neutral) is turning positive once again, those short term levels are still operative, with only the Dow having its short term level now altered to 12,330. In the meantime, on the downside, here are four new short term danger levels to keep an eye on, which would tell us that this boring sideways action is giving way to a new correction. Those four new short term downside levels now are: SPX (cash) 1235; Dow 12,100; COMP 2585; and RUT 729. But, remember, as was the case in 2011 (and we expect it to also be true in the coming year), the key to profitability has been making sure that we do much more than simply focus on these sharp market moves - instead, we need to pay at least equal attention to "stock selection." We, therefore, continue to feel very strongly that "staying in gear" with the technicals will be crucial to starting the New Year off on a happy note. Now, as far as groups are concerned, those sectors that we now rate favorably are: Banks-Diversified, Biotechnology, Broadcasting, Construction Materials, Data Processing & Outsource, Distillers & Vintners, Distributors, Diversified Consumer Services, Education Services, Footwear, Homebuilding, Household Products, Housewares & Specialties, Integrated Oil & Gas, Integrated Telecomm Services, Internet Software & Services, Movies & Entertainment, Oil & Gas Storage & Transport, Packaged Foods & Meats, Paper Products, Pharmaceuticals, Publishing, REITS-Retail, REITS-Specialized, Research & Consulting Services, Restaurants, Retail-Apparel, Retail-Automotive, Retail-Home Improvement, Retail-Hypermarkets & Supercenters, Soft Drinks, Specialized Consumer Services, Tobacco, Trading Companies & Distributors, Utilities-Electric, UtilitiesGas, and Utilities-Multi. As for those areas which are most negative, all of the following are still in poor technical shape: Agricultural Products, Airlines, Aluminum, Application Software, Asset Management & Custody Banks, Auto Parts & Equipment, Automobile Manufacturers, Cable & Satellite, Casinos & Gaming, Chemicals-Diversified, Coal & Consumer Fuels, Commercial Printing, Computer Storage & Peripherals, Construction & Engineering, Construction, Farm Machinery & Heavy Trucks, Consumer Finance, Diversified Financial Services Other, Diversified Metals & Mining, Electrical Components & Equipment, Electronic Components, Electronic Equipment & Instruments, Electronic Manufacturing Services, Environmental & Facilities Service, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Gold Stocks, Health Care Distributors, Health Care Equipment, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Technology, Home Entertainment Software, Household Appliances, Industrial Machinery, Industrial Power Producers & Energy Traders, Insurance-Life & Health, Insurance-Multi-Line, Investment Banking & Brokerage, Leisure Products, Life Science Tools & Services, Office Electronics, Office Services & Supplies, Oil & Gas Drilling, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, Paper Packaging, Personal Products, Photographic Products, Real Estate Management & Development, Real Estate Services, REITS-Diversified, REITS-Industrial, Retail-Computers & Electronics, Retail-Internet, Retail-Specialty Stores, Semiconductor Equipment, Specialized Finance, Steel, Systems Software, and Wireless Telecomm Services. Now, here are those stocks that have good technical patterns at this time, and which you can do buying in: Abbott Labs (ABT - 56.23) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 55-55.50 zone with a 53.79 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 51.99; Advance America Cash Advance Centers (AEA - 8.95) closing above 9.45 with an 8.39 trading sell stop and a 6.89 investing stop; Akamai Technologies (AKAM - 32.28) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 29-30.50 zone with a 27.99 trading sell stop and a 25.69 investing stop; Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN - 71.50) do additional buying now closing above 72.25 with a 66.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 55.99; Altria Group (MO - 29.65) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 28.50-29 zone with a 27.99 trading sell stop and a 26.79 investing stop; AMAG Pharmaceuticals (AMAG - 18.91) now closing above 19.65 with a 17.99 trading sell stop and a 14.99 investing stop; American Campus Communities (ACC - 41.96) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 40-40.50 zone with a 38.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 36.59; American Electric Power (AEP - 41.31) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 40-40.50 zone with a 38.99 trading sell stop and a 36.99 investing stop; Amgen (AMGN - 64.21) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 60.50-62 zone with a 57.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 55.99; Arch Capital Group (ACGL - 37.23) do additional buying closing above 38 with a 35.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 33.99; Arthur J
The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 4


Gallagher & Co (AJG - 33.44) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 32-32.50 zone with a 30.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 28.79; Asbury Automotive Group (ABG - 21.56) do additional buying closing above 22 with an 18.99 trading sell stop and a 17.49 investing stop Assurant Inc (AIZ - 41.06) closing above 42 with a 37.99 trading sell stop and a 35.69 investing stop; Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL - 37.15) on pullbacks toward the 35-36 zone and more aggressively closing above 38 with a 32.49 sell stop; BCE Inc (BCE - 41.67) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 40-41 zone with a 38.49 trading sell stop and a 37.39 investing stop; bebe stores (BEBE - 8.33) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 8 and more aggressively now closing above 8.60 with a 7.39 trading sell stop and a 6.59 investing stop; Blackrock Inc (BLK - 178.24) do additional buying now closing above 180 with a 164.49 trading sell stop and a 149.99 investing stop; Boston Private Financial Hldgs (BPFH - 7.94) do additional buying now closing above 8.40 with a 7.29 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 6.59; Brown Forman (BFB - 80.51) do additional buying now closing above 82.10 with a 76.79 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 71.79; Buckeye Technology (BKI - 33.44) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 32 with a 29.79 trading sell stop and a 26.99 investing stop; Celgene (CELG - 67.60) closing above 68.25 with a 63.99 trading sell stop and a 59.99 investing stop; Centene Corp (CNC - 39.59) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 38-38.50 zone with a 35.99 trading sell stop and a 32.99 investing stop; Clean Harbors (CLH - 63.73) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 61-62 zone with a 56.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 52.89; CMS Energy (CMS - 22.08) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 21-21.50 zone with a 20.39 trading sell stop and a 19.49 investing stop; Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (ABV - 36.09) now closing above 36.75 with a 33.99 trading sell stop and a 31.29 investing stop; Consolidated Edison (ED - 62.03) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 60-60.50 zone with a 57.99 trading sell stop and a 54.59 investing stop; Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST - 39.62) do additional buying closing above 40.50 with a 36.59 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 34.49; CVB Financial (CVBF - 10.03) closing above 10.30 with the sell stop now adjusted to 8.99; CVS Caremark (CVS - 40.78) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 38.50-39.50 zone with the sell stop adjusted to 36.39; Diageo plc (DEO - 87.42) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 86 with an 83.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 79.29; Digital Realty Trust (DLR - 66.67) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 65-66 zone with a 62.39 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 59.99; DR Horton (DHI - 12.61) crossing 13 and more aggressively closing above 13.50 with an 11.59 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 10.69; DTE Energy (DTE - 54.45) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 52.50-53.25 zone with a 51.29 trading sell stop and a 48.99 investing stop; Duke Energy (DUK - 22) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 20.5021 zone with a 19.99 trading sell stop and an 18.99 investing stop; Dycom Industries (DY - 20.92) do additional buying now closing above 21.60 with an 18.79 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 16.89; Ecolab Inc (ECL - 57.81) on pullbacks toward the 56.50-57 zone with a 53.99 trading sell stop and a 51.99 investing stop; Edison Intl (EIX - 41.40) do additional buying closing above 41.60 with a 39.29 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 37.49; Education Realty Trust (EDR - 10.23) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 9.50 with a 9.29 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 8.49; Eli Lilly (LLY - 41.56) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 39.50-40.25 zone with a 38.49 trading sell stop and a 35.39 investing stop; Enbridge Inc (ENB - 37.41) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now near 36 with a 34.39 trading sell stop and the investing stop adjusted to 32.59; Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS - 17.03) do additional buying now closing above 17.10 with a 15.19 trading sell stop and a 13.99 investing stop; Garmin Ltd (GRMN - 39.81) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 37.50-38.50 zone with a 36.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 33.89; General Mills (GIS - 40.41) do additional buying now closing above 40.80 with a 39.29 trading sell stop and a 37.89 investing stop; Genuine Parts (GPC - 61.20) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 59-60 zone with a 56.99 trading sell stop and a 53.99 investing stop; GlaxoSmithKline (GSK - 45.63) closing above 46 with a 44.29 trading sell stop and a 41.49 investing stop; Google Inc (GOOG - 645.90) closing above 647 with a 606.99 trading sell stop and a 559.99 investing stop; Group 1 Automotive (GPI - 51.80) do additional buying now closing above 52.20 with a 47.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop adjusted to 41.99; Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO - 9.51) do additional buying closing above 9.85 with an 8.79 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 6.99; Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE - 26.48) do additional buying closing above 26.80 with a 25.39 trading sell stop and
The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 5


a 23.99 investing stop; HCP Inc (HCP - 41.43) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 40-40.50 zone with a 37.99 trading sell stop and a 35.79 investing stop; Heartland Payment Systems (HPY - 24.36) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 23.5024 zone with a 21.59 trading sell stop and a 19.79 investing stop; Heckmann Corp (HEK - 6.65) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 6.25-6.50 zone with a 5.79 trading sell stop and a 4.99 investing stop; HMS Holdings (HMSY - 31.98) do additional buying now closing above 32.35 with a 29.89 trading sell stop and a 25.99 investing stop; Home Depot (HD - 42.04) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 40-41 zone with a 38.59 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 35.49; IAC InterActiveCorp (IACI - 42.60) closing above 44 with a 40.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 37.49; Idacorp (IDA - 42.41) do additional buying on pullbacks toward 41.50-42 zone and more aggressively now closing above 42.70 with a 40.39 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 38.79; InfoSpace Inc (INSP - 10.99) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 10 with a 9.39 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 8.19; Integrys Energy Group (TEG - 54.18) on pullbacks toward support now in the 52.50-53 zone with a 50.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 48.39; Intuitive Surgical (ISRG - 463.01) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 445-450 zone with a 419.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 378.99; Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY - 33.61) now closing above 34.50 with a 31.99 trading sell stop and a 29.99 investing stop; Kimberly-Clark (KMB - 73.56) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 71.50-72.50 zone with a 70.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 67.99; Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI - 32.17) do additional buying from here back toward support near 31.50 and more aggressively now closing above 32.25 with a 28.99 trading sell stop and a 26.89 investing stop; Kirby Corp (KEX - 65.84) do additional buying now closing above 66.50 with a 61.29 trading sell stop and a 55.69 investing stop; Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG - 9.50) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 8.50-9 zone with a 7.99 trading sell stop and a 6.49 investing stop; Kraft Foods (KFT - 37.36) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 36.50-37 zone with a 35.79 trading sell stop and a 33.99 investing stop; Lamar Advertising (LAMR - 27.50) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 26-26.50 zone and more aggressively closing above 27.75 with a 22.79 trading sell stop and a 21.69 investing stop; Life Time Fitness (LTM - 46.75) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 44-45 zone with a 41.49 trading sell stop and a 37.49 investing stop; Liz Claiborne (LIZ - 8.63) do additional buying closing above 9.20 with a 7.49 trading sell stop and a 5.99 investing stop; LTC Properties (LTC - 30.86) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 29.50-30 zone with a 28.59 trading sell stop and a 26.79 investing stop; Main Street Capital (MAIN - 21.24) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 20-20.50 zone with a 19.39 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 18.29; Marsh & McLennan (MMC - 31.62) closing above 32 with a 29.99 trading sell stop and a 27.99 investing stop; Merck & Co (MRK - 37.70) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 36-37 zone with a 34.79 trading sell stop and a 32.99 investing stop; Mercury General (MCY - 45.62) do additional buying now closing above 46.75 with a 43.39 trading sell stop and a 39.99 investing stop; Monotype Imaging Hldgs (TYPE - 15.59) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 14.75-15.25 zone with a 13.99 trading sell stop and a 12.99 investing stop; New Jersey Resources (NJR - 49.20) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 47.50-48.25 zone with a 45.79 trading sell stop and a 43.99 investing stop; Newpark Resources (NR - 9.50) closing above 10.10 with an 8.69 trading sell stop and a 7.79 investing stop; News Corp Cl A (NWSA - 17.84) closing above 18.35 with a 16.59 trading sell stop and a 15.89 investing stop; NextEra Energy Capital Hldgs (NEE - 60.88) is extended, so do buying on pullbacks toward the 58-58.50 zone with a 55.99 trading sell stop and a 52.29 investing stop; NiSource Inc (NI - 23.81) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now near 23 with a 21.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 20.49; Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL - 40.53) do additional buying from here back toward support now near 39.50 and more aggressively closing above 41.60 with a 37.89 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 34.99; On Assignment (ASGN - 11.18) closing above 12 with a 9.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 9.29; Oxford Industries (OXM - 45.12) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 42.50-43.50 zone with a 39.49 trading sell stop and a 33.59 investing stop; Parker Drilling (PKD - 7.17) closing above 7.50 with a 6.24 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 5.74; Pepco Holdings (POM - 20.30) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 19.50-20 zone and more aggressively now closing above 20.65 with an 18.99 sell stop; PETsMART (PETM - 51.29) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 49.50-50 zone with a 47.89 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 44.29; Pfizer (PFE - 21.64) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 20The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 6


20.50 zone with a 19.59 trading sell stop and a 17.99 investing stop; Pier 1 Imports (PIR - 13.93) do additional buying closing above 14.15 with a 12.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 11.49; Pinnacle West Capital (PNW - 48.18) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 47-47.50 zone with a 44.99 trading sell stop and a 43.89 investing stop; Progress Energy (PGN - 56.02) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now near 55 with a 52.99 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 48.99; Provident Energy (PVX - 9.69) do additional buying closing above 9.90 with an 8.59 sell stop; Public Storage (PSA - 134.46) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 130-132 zone with a 123.99 trading sell stop and a 117.99 investing stop; Questar (STR - 19.86) do additional buying now closing above 20.10 with an 18.69 trading sell stop and a 17.99 investing stop; RenaissanceRe Hldgs (RNR - 74.37) on pullbacks toward the 73-73.50 zone with a 70.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 67.79; Retail Opportunity Investments (ROIC - 11.84) now closing above 12 with the sell stop raised to 10.99; Reynolds American (RAI - 41.42) do additional buying closing above 42.25 with a 39.89 trading sell stop and a 37.59 investing stop; Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH - 21.13) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 20-20.50 zone with a 19.39 trading sell stop and a 16.99 investing stop; SCANA Corp (SCG - 45.06) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 43.50-44.25 zone with a 41.99 trading sell stop and a 39.99 investing stop; Select Comfort (SCSS - 21.69) closing above 22.25 with a 19.39 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 16.49; Sherwin-Williams (SHW - 89.27) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 87-88 zone with an 83.99 trading sell stop and a 79.99 investing stop; Shuffle Master (SHFL - 11.72) do additional buying closing above 12.25 with a 10.59 trading sell stop and a 9.59 investing stop; Six Flags Entertainment (SIX - 41.24) on pullbacks toward the 39-40 zone with a 36.79 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 34.69; Southern Co (SO - 46.29) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 45-45.50 zone with a 43.49 trading sell stop and a 40.99 investing stop; Spectra Energy (SE - 30.75) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 29.50-30 zone with a 28.79 trading sell stop and a 26.99 investing stop; STAAR Surgical (STAA - 10.49) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 10 with a 9.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 6.99; Starbucks (SBUX - 46.01) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 44-45 zone with a 42.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 38.99; Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT - 29.32) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 28-28.50 zone with a 27.49 trading sell stop and a 25.89 investing stop; The Hershey Company (HSY - 61.78) on pullbacks toward the 60-61 zone with a 58.29 trading sell stop and a 56.89 investing stop; Tyson Foods (TSN - 20.64) do additional buying now closing above 21.10 with a 19.79 trading sell stop and a 17.99 investing stop; Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU - 35.98) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 35-35.50 zone with a 33.99 trading sell stop and a 32.99 investing stop; Vectren (VVC - 30.23) on pullbacks toward the 29-29.50 zone with a 27.89 trading sell stop and a 26.99 investing stop; Verisk Analytics (VRSK - 40.13) do additional buying now closing above 40.25 with a 37.29 trading sell stop and the investing stop raised to 34.59; Verizon Communications (VZ - 40.12) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support now in the 38.50-39 zone with a 37.59 trading sell stop and a 35.29 investing stop; Wal-Mart Stores (WMT - 59.76) do additional buying on pullbacks toward support near 59 and more aggressively now closing above 60 with a 57.39 trading sell stop and a 53.99 investing stop; Wendys Co (WEN - 5.36) do additional buying closing above 5.65 with a 4.99 trading sell stop and a 4.24 investing stop; Westar Energy (WR - 28.78) on pullbacks toward the 27.50-28 zone with a 26.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now raised to 25.69; WGL Holdings (WGL - 44.22) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 43-43.50 zone with a 41.39 trading sell stop and a 39.49 investing stop; Wisconsin Energy (WEC - 34.96) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 33-33.50 zone with a 32.39 trading sell stop and a 30.99 investing stop; Wyndham Worldwide Corp (WYN - 37.83) do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 36-36.50 zone with a 33.99 trading sell stop and a 31.99 investing stop; and Xcel Energy (XEL - 27.64) is extended, so do additional buying on pullbacks toward the 26-26.50 zone with a 25.49 trading sell stop and the investing stop now adjusted to 24.59. Now, here are those stocks that have the most dangerous technical patterns that we would do selling in: Acacia Research (ACTG - 36.51) do additional selling now closing below 34.50; Accenture PLC (ACN - 53.23) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 54.50-56 zone; Accretive Health Inc (AH - 22.98) do additional selling now breaking 22.25 and more aggressively closing below 19.25; Amazon.com (AMZN - 173.10) is oversold, so do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 180-185 zone; American
The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 7


Express (AXP - 47.17) do additional selling now breaking 45.50 and more aggressively closing below 44.50; Arbitron Inc (ARB - 34.41) do additional selling now closing below 34; Ariba Inc (ARBA - 28.08) is oversold, so do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 30-31 zone; athenahealth (ATHN - 49.12) do additional selling on rallies back toward the 50-51 zone; Autodesk Inc (ADSK - 30.33) closing below 29.75; Avago Technologies (AVGO - 28.86) do additional selling now closing below 27.25; Baidu Inc (BIDU - 116.47) is oversold, so do additional selling on rallies back toward the 122-125 zone; Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY - 57.97) now closing below 56.50; BJs Restaurants (BJRI - 45.32) closing below 44; BorgWarner (BWA - 63.74) do additional selling breaking 63 and more aggressively now closing below 60.50; BroadSoft Inc (BSFT - 30.20) now closing below 29.40; Carbo Ceramics (CRR - 123.33) do additional selling closing below 120; Cardinal Health (CAH - 40.61) do additional selling closing below 39.75; Cash America Intl (CSH - 46.63) do additional selling now closing below 45; CF Industries Hldgs (CF - 144.98) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now near 150; Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP - 52.54) now breaking 52 and more aggressively closing below 50.50; CIGNA Corp (CI - 42) do additional selling closing below 40.50; Cinemark Holdings (CNK - 18.49) breaking 18.25 and more aggressively closing below 17; The Cooper Cos (COO - 70.52) do additional selling on rallies back toward the 71-72 zone; Copa Holdings (CPA - 58.67) breaking 57.50 and more aggressively closing below 55.75; Corrections Corp of America (CXW - 20.37) do additional selling now closing below 20; Coventry Health Care (CVH - 30.37) do additional selling now closing below 30; Deckers Outdoor (DECK - 75.57) is oversold, so do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 80-82 zone; Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS - 36.88) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now near 37.50 and more aggressively closing below 35; Dillards Inc (DDS - 44.88) do additional selling now closing below 43; DIRECTV (DTV - 42.76) is oversold, so do selling on rallies back toward the 44.50-45.50 zone; DST Systems (DST - 45.52) closing below 44.75; DSW Inc (DSW - 44.21) do additional selling closing below 42; Electronic Arts (EA - 20.60) closing below 19.75; EMC Corp (EMC - 21.54) closing below 21.25; Emerson Electric (EMR - 46.59) on rallies back toward resistance now in the 48-49 zone; Express Inc (EXPR - 19.94) now closing below 19.20; EZchip Semiconductor (EZCH - 28.33) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance near 30 and more aggressively now closing below 27.70; EZCORP Inc (EZPW - 26.37) do additional selling closing below 25.25; First Cash Financial Svcs (FCFS - 35.09) do additional selling now closing below 34.25; Fossil Inc (FOSL - 79.36) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 82-83 zone and more aggressively closing below 79; Gardner Denver (GDI - 77.06) do additional selling now breaking 75 and more aggressively closing below 74; Gartner Inc (IT - 34.77) do additional selling now closing below 34; Gulfport Energy (GPOR 29.45) now breaking 28.75 and more aggressively closing below 27.25; Herbalife (HLF - 51.67) do additional selling closing below 50.50; Informatica (INFA - 36.93) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 39.50-41 zone and more aggressively closing below 35.50; iShares Silver Trust (SLV - 26.94) is oversold, so do additional selling on rallies back toward the 28.50-29 zone; Jos A Bank Clothiers (JOSB - 48.76) do additional selling now closing below 47.25; Joy Global (JOY - 74.97) do additional selling now closing below 72.50; Kohls Corp (KSS - 49.35) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance near 50.50 and more aggressively now closing below 48; Las Vegas Sands (LVS - 42.73) do additional selling closing below 40; lululemon athletica (LULU - 46.66) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 49-50 zone; Magellan Health Services (MGLN - 49.47) do additional selling now breaking 49 and more aggressively closing below 47; MAKO Surgical (MAKO - 25.21) do additional selling now closing below 24.40; McKesson Corp (MCK 77.91) closing below 76; Mettler Toledo Intl (MTD - 147.71) do additional selling closing below 142.75; Herman Miller (MLHR - 18.45) on rallies back toward resistance now in the 20-21 zone and more aggressively closing below 18; Netease.com (NTES - 44.85) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance near 46 and more aggressively now closing below 42.25; Nordson Corp (NDSN - 41.18) now closing below 39.25; OPNET Technologies (OPNT - 36.67) now closing below 36; Penske Automotive Group (PAG - 19.25) do additional selling now closing below 18.25; Polypore Intl (PPO - 43.99) do additional selling now closing below 43; PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ - 55.83) do additional selling now closing below 54; priceline.com (PCLN - 467.71) do additional selling now breaking 460 and more aggressively closing below 438; Red Hat (RHT - 41.29) on rallies back toward resistance now in the 43-44 zone; Rosetta Resources (ROSE - 43.50) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 44-45 zone; SM Energy Co (SM - 73.10) do additional selling now closing below 71; Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM - 53.85) do additional selling now breaking 52 and more aggressively closing
The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.

STAN

WEINSTEINS

GLOBAL TREND ALERT


DETECTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR

WEEKLY UPDATE - PAGE 8


below 50; SPDR Gold Trust (GLD - 151.99) is oversold, so do additional selling on rallies back toward the 155-157.50 zone; Stericycle (SRCL - 77.92) do additional selling now breaking 77 and more aggressively closing below 75.75; Steven Madden Ltd (SHOO - 34.50) do additional selling now breaking 34 and more aggressively closing below 32; Symantec (SYMC - 15.65) closing below 14.90; TE Connectivity (TEL - 30.81) closing below 29.60; Tempur-Pedic Intl (TPX - 52.53) do additional selling now closing below 50; Teradata Corp (TDC - 48.51) do additional selling from here back toward resistance now near 49.75; TIBCO Software (TIBX - 23.91) on rallies back toward resistance now in the 25-25.50 zone; Tiffany & Co (TIF - 66.26) do additional selling on rallies back toward resistance now in the 68-70 zone; Towers Watson & Co (TW - 59.93) do additional selling breaking 58.50 and more aggressively now closing below 57; Under Armour (UA - 71.79) do additional selling closing below 69.50; Vail Resorts (MTN - 42.36) closing below 41.75; VMware Inc (VMW - 83.19) on rallies back toward resistance now in the 86-87 zone; Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI - 60.34) do additional selling closing below 58.75; and Zebra Technologies (ZBRA - 35.78) closing below 35. As for bonds, there's no change, as the long term trend remains in a moderately bullish position. In the meantime, the shorter term outlook, too, has improved, as the latest selloff held well above that key support at 140 that we spoke about last time (basis March). Furthermore, a close now above the 146.35 level would not only signal that the trading outlook is strengthening further, but that would also indicate that the major trend is moving from a moderately positive to a clearly bullish position. Conversely, a failure to accomplish that feat, followed by a close now below the 141.50 level, would indicate that the near term trend is turning negative, and that a test of that more significant support near 140 is once again getting underway. As for gold, the long term trend continues to weaken, and we now rate it as being in a moderately negative position. However, from a very near term point of view, this contract is oversold, and looks ready to rally back toward resistance now in the 1600-1625 area (basis February). Thereafter, "down the road," a close now below the 1523 level would signal that the major trend is weakening further, to a clearly bearish position. In the meantime, as far as the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS) Index is concerned, as has been the case for the past several months, it remains in even worse shape than the bullion, as it continues to display absolutely horrid relative strength. We, therefore, view the long term trend as being in a negative position, although near term, it, too, is oversold, and looks ready for a trading move back toward resistance near 520. Thereafter, a break (on a closing basis) now below 477 would signal that the major trend is weakening to an even greater degree, and that yet another new downleg is getting underway. Next, all of us here at Global Trend Alert want to once again wish you a very Happy and Healthy 2012!!! Finally, since we'll be publishing our new monthly issue of Global Trend Alert this coming weekend, there will be no weekly update on Monday, January 9th. You will, however, be receiving the January 2012 issue of GTA via FedEx on Tuesday morning, January 10th (and, for those of you who also receive a copy of the monthly issue via email, it should be in your inbox late Sunday night, 1/8).

The information contained herein has been prepared by Global Trend Alert. We advise readers that they should not assume that present or future recommendations will be profitable or will equal past performance, or that any chart, theory, or philosophy can guarantee profits in the stock market. Global Trend Alert does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance of any person or group using such information or opinions. All contents are derived from original or published sources believed reliable, but not guaranteed. This report is for the information of clients only and does not constitute an offer nor solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. Global Trend Alert, its employees, officers or affiliated companies may, in some instances, hold securities mentioned herein. No part of this report may be reproduced in whole or in part without prior written permission. All rights reserved.