The Future of Political Islam: The Importance of External Variables Author(s): Mohammed Ayoob Reviewed work(s): Source: International

Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), Vol. 81, No. 5 (Oct., 2005), pp. 951-961 Published by: Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of the Royal Institute of International Affairs Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3569069 . Accessed: 23/10/2012 02:34
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Wiley-Blackwell and Royal Institute of International Affairs are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-).

http://www.jstor.org

Islam: of Thefuture political of variables theimportance external

MOHAMMED AYOOB

Much has been said and writtenabout the potentialof political Islam-or the as significantly future Islamism, it has now come to be called-to influence of of Muslim societiesand politiesaround the world. However, most analyses on to assessits futurepotentialconcentrate try political Islam that explicitly as what are consideredits innate characteristics a politicalideology with the to capacity to mobilize its adherents(commonly referred as Islamists)for or of regime change or social transformation both. These analyses purposes emphasize the inherentnatureof, and the inbuiltcontradictions accordingly external to about the environment within,Islamism.Far less has been written the phenomenon of Islamism,namely the milieu in which Islamistgroups operateand propagatetheirideology. Moreover, only a minusculeportionof to the on the writings politicalIslam try analyseexplicitly impactthatvariables externalto Islamismare likely to have on its futureprospects.This article in Islamism a wider contextand by analysing to attempts fillthatgap by setting to as external Islamism an factors theimpacton politicalIslamof environmental outsidethe controlof Islamists. ideology and largely

Islam? Whatis political

Before embarkingon this task it is necessaryto address two fundamental what does the term'politicalIslam' or 'Islamism'reallymean? questions.First, Second, is Islamism a single phenomenon, or are there several discrete of manifestations politicalIslamthatare defined largely thenationalcontexts by in which theyoperate? As faras the definitional questionis concerned,it can be arguedthatat the of most generallevel adherents politicalIslam believe that'Islam as a body of has to faith something important say about how politicsand societyshould be in Muslimworldand implemented some fashion.'" orderedin thecontemporary to this While correctas a broad generalization, is too nebulous a formulation
I

Islam The Graham Fuller, future political (New York:Palgrave, of 2003),p. xi.

International 8I, Affairs 5 (2005) 951-96I

Mohammed Ayoob eitherthe natureof the Islamist act as an analytical guide capable of explaining in undertaken the name of Islam.A ideologyor the scope of politicalactivities of it describes as 'a form morepreciseand analytically useful definition Islamism of and organizations that of instrumentalization Islam by individuals, groups pursue political objectives. It provides political responsesto today's societal a the for challengesby imagining future, foundations which reston reapproreinvented borrowedfromthe Islamictradition.'2 priated, concepts in The reappropriation the past,the 'inventionof tradition' termsof a of romanticized notion of a largelymythical golden age, lies at the heartof this of thatprovidesthe instrumentalization Islam.3It is the inventionof tradition tools for dehistoricizing Islam and separating fromthe various contextsin it over the fourteen hunterms timeand space in which Islam has flourished of This decontextualizing Islamallows Islamists of dredyearssinceitsfoundation. in theory-and I repeat,in theory-to ignorethe social,economic and political milieuxwithinwhich Muslim societiesoperate.It therefore providesIslamists witha powerful ideologicaltool thattheycan wield in orderto 'purge'Muslim societies of 'impurities' and 'accretions'-natural accompanimentsof the historical process-which theysee as reasonsforMuslim decline. This ahistorical of, approachto, and interpretation Islamalso servesas a stick with which Islamists beat theiropponents.The ulama,scholarstrainedin can in Islamictheologyandjurisprudence religious who have been the seminaries, traditional ofIslam,havebeen theIslamists' favourite of interpreters target attack. For the Islamists, traditional the ulamaare a partof the problemand not of the solution. Most Islamists for hold these religiousscholarsresponsible Muslim who succumbedto superior the rulers western declinealongside temporal power those duringthe era of colonial domination. Accordingto Islamist perceptions, temporalrulers,obsessed with personal glory and pleasure, contributedto fromthe pristine model enjoinedby Islamicteachsocietaldecay by departing ofthemsubservient thesecorrupt to Muslimrulers, while the ulama, ings, many of obsessedwithfiner were prisoners precedent, pointsof theology; distorting by to a it and fossilizing dynamicideology,theyrendered incapableof responding externalchallenges,whether intellectualor military, emanatingprincipally from West. It is no coincidencethatveryfewof theleadingIslamist the figures are drawn fromthe ranksof the ulama.Most of them began theircareersin modernprofessions, such as seculareducation, journalismand engineering.

or One Islamism many?

This bringsus to our second question:is Islamisma singlephenomenon,or is political Islam definedlargelyby the national contextin which it operates?
2

Middle Policy9: East Guilain Denoeux,'The forgotten Islam', swamp: political navigating
p. 6i.

2, June 2002,

3 The term 'invention tradition' taken from Hobsbawm Terrence Eric and of is eds,Theinvention Ranger, Press, oftradition York:Cambridge (New I983). University

952

Thefuture Islam ofpolitical after of That is, does contextmatter all-contraryto theattempts manyIslamists Islam?For ifit does, thereare likelyto be as manyforms to decontextualize of withthe politicalIslam as thereare discrete politicalcontexts. Any one familiar of diversity the Muslim world in terms of socio-economic characteristics, and of is culture, politicalsystem, trajectory intellectual development bound to realizethatthepoliticalmanifestation Islam,like thepracticeof Islamitself, of is to a greatextentcontext-specific is the resultof the interpenetration and of religiouspreceptsand local culture, includingpoliticalculture.4 It is truethatthereis an Islamicvocabularythattranscends politicalboundaries. However, such vocabularyis normallyemployed to serve objectives In specificto discretesettings. the process,while the Islamicidiom may continue to appear the same to the uninitiated observer,the actual contentand thrust the messagesthatemploy thisidiom differ of substantially accordingto the contextin which theyare uttered. Eickelmanand Piscatori As have pointed which out, politicsbecomes 'Muslim' by 'the invocationof ideas and symbols, Muslimsin different contexts as identify "Islamic",in supportof ... organized claimsand counterclaims'.5 and However, sincesuch claimsand counterclaims, the contentionthat accompanies them, are normallycircumscribed the by bordersof the sovereign, territorial state,much of the politicsthatgoes on in the name of Islam is also confined withinthoseboundaries. That the Islamistpolitical imaginationis determinedin overwhelming measureby the existenceof multiple territorial states becomes veryclearwhen one looks at the political discourse,and even more the political action, of Islamist movements. The Jama'at-i-Islami as specific Pakistan the Islamic is to as Salvation Front is specific to Algeria. Even the strategies the Muslim of which althoughfoundedin Egypthas branchesin variousArab Brotherhood, countries, includingSyria, Jordanand occupied Palestine,are determined by contextualcharacteristics. Islamist are particular politicalformations governed by the same logic of timeand space as theirsecularcounterparts.6

a Beyond spurious uniformity

Ifit is the case thatthereare severalIslamisms withindiscrete operating political contextsdetermined the existenceof the sovereign,territorial by state,then why do most pundits,especiallyin the West, considerpoliticalIslam to be a monolithicphenomenon bent on implementing singlegrandstrategy? a The answerlies in partin thelack of knowledgeof Muslim societiesand politieson the partof mostanalysts theWest, especially in thosewho dominatethe media and have made a habitof expoundingtheirviews about politicalIslam with a
4 '[I]t is intellectually and to the between Islam and imprudent historically misguided discuss relationships as wereone Islam, timeless eternal': and Olivier Islam politics ifthere Roy, The failure political of MA: Harvard Press, (Cambridge, University I996),p. vii. 5 Dale F. Eickelman James and Muslim NJ: Piscatori, (Princeton, Princeton politics Press, University I996),p. 4. 6 I haveaddressed issuein considerable this detail Mohammed in Islam: Ayoob,'Political imageand
2I: reality',WorldPolicy Journal 3, Fall 2004, pp. I-I4.

953

Mohammed Ayoob that degree of self-righteousness only the semi-educatedcan attain.It lies in aroundtheworld,which appears employedby Islamists partalso in therhetoric to most outsidersas almost identical.The various Islamistmovementshave fromthe recourseto similarvocabularybecause they draw theirinspiration familiar theiraudiences. to same sources,and also because thisis a vocabulary the However, once one beginsto scrutinize politicalobjectivesand actions it of the various Islamistformations becomes clear that they are engaged in primarily promotingmultiplenationalagendas and not a single universal of Even the sharedpreoccupation variousIslamist groupswithcreating project. confinesof the 'Islamic state' is very clearlyenvisagedwithin the territorial not states: theirobjectiveis to Islamizeexisting states, tojoin themin a existing This demonstrates that,despiteovertdenials veryclearly singlepoliticalentity. the notion that the international by some of them, they have internalized and will continueto be so into states is territorial system composed of multiple It theindefinite future. also impliesthattheyare acutelyaware oftheterritorial, ethnicand culturaldivisionswithinthe Muslim world and concede, even if the that'Islam' is but one, and not necessarily mostsalient,among implicitly, thatpeoples in Muslim countriesvalue. The idea of the numerousidentities on is a onlyby theelements thefurthest caliphate cherished recreating universal and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, of fringe politicalIslam, such as the Al-Muhajiroun in both founded by Muslim emigresin Britain,headquartered London and politicalbase withinMuslim countries. lackingany significant to that transnational The extremist organizations purport speak on behalfof Islam,such as Al-Qaeda, are also fringe groups,which,while theyloom large are acts of dramatic of terror, marginal as in theWest'simagination a result their as and ineffective faras the day-toof movements to thelargemajority Islamist are withinMuslimcountries concerned.Most mainstream struggles daypolitical and attempt withinnationalboundaries, movements Islamist operatepeacefully constitutheirsocietiesand politieslargely and transform to influence through and political cards are stacked tional means even when the constitutional suchas theMuslim Islamist them.7 thissense,mainstream In against movements, in thanradical nature. rather are and Brotherhood theJama'at-i-Islami, reformist In fact,one can argue thatmost transnational groups,and especiallythe preof contexts. creations discrete eminentamong them,Al-Qaeda, are themselves the 'jihad' against Soviet Union in Afghanistan It was the American-sponsored statethatprovidedfertile the ground and, subsequently, collapseof theAfghan for and radicalsin Afghanistan subsequently of first the ingathering Islamist for of Al-Qaeda, whose leaders,includingOsama bin Laden, were the emergence of once favourites the CIA. conservaof Founded by a mixture politicalradicalsand social and cultural with the tivesfromthe Arab world, who had been assembledin Afghanistan
7 See Carrie in and Islam: activism, political (New York: Wickham, change Egypt religion, Mobilizing Rosefsky Vali Columbia of Islamic Press, 2002), on Egypt; Seyyed Reza Nasr,Thevanguardthe University of theJama'at-i-Islami Revolution: Press, University California (Berkeley: ofPakistan I994), on Pakistan.

954

Islam Thefuture ofpolitical Al-Qaeda was Intelligence, help of the CIA and the PakistaniInter-Services able to mobilize and organize a substantial number of Arab, Pakistaniand and create its own political space within the Central Asian Islamistfighters state.Afghanistan's descentinto a bloody civil war followingthe withfailing drawalof Soviet troopscreateda politicalvacuum in the country thatled to the Taleban and also providedfertile emergenceof the Pakistan-supported ground in which Al-Qaeda could flourish and conditionsin which it could operate witha considerable The absenceofthe statein Afghanistan degreeofimpunity. to terrorist gave Al-Qaeda a golden opportunity plan an international agenda, came to depend especiallysince the Taleban regime,isolatedinternationally, on Take awaythe heavily Al-Qaeda forfinancial helpand ideologicalsustenance. and the circumstances 'jihad' againstgodlesscommunism American-supported in and of statefailure Afghanistan, none of thiswould have been possible.8 clear. First, is plain thatIslamism, it makesseveralthings The above analysis as far as its exponentsand adherentsare concerned, is above all a political lies Its for ideologyand not a theologicalconstruct. mainattraction itsfollowers themspiritual to not in the factthatit offers solace, but in itssupposedcapacity It answersto theircontemporary and social predicaments. is a political provide as productof modernity much as a responseto it. and acontextualconstruction a romantiof Second, despite its ahistorical cized golden age, Islamismin practiceis a prisonerof context,especiallythat of states. There are almostas many sovereign providedby the existence multiple varieties politicalIslam as thereare states of thatare predominantly Muslim. In the exceeds the numberof Muslim majority fact, numberof Islamisms possibly 'Muslim'secessionist states becauseseveral suchas thosein Chechnya movements, or Kashmir,which operate within and againstpredominantly non-Muslim also espouse ideologies thatfallwithinthe category politicalIslam. of states, The primary reasonwhysuchstruggles appropriated Islamists related are is by of to thefailure secular movements ideologiesto fulfil political and the aspirations ofMuslimethnic for or The groups struggling autonomy independence. repression exercised predominantly non-Muslimregimes when facedwithdemandsfor by the Muslim autonomy or attemptsat secession has also helped crystallize ofthoseengagedin suchstruggles. thesearebasically nationalist However, identity albeitin Islamicgarb,and their of movements, primary objectiveis the creation The same appliesto factions nationalliberation of moveindependentstates.9 suchas thosein Palestine Lebanon,that and havetakenon an Islamic comments, of plexion. Hamas and Hezbollah are as much creations theirnationalcontext as the Muslim Brotherhoodin Egyptand theJama'at-i-Islami Pakistan.i0 in
8 Fora of contribution theemergence transnational to of jihadis from analysis theAmerican fascinating thekilling fields Afghanistan, MahmoodMamadani, of see GoodMuslim, Muslim bad (New York: 9 FortheChechencasewhichbears this out see and Lee 'Chechen thesis, C. J.Chivers Steven Myers, rebels driven nationalism', York New 12 Times, Sept.2004. mainly by of see respectively MishalandAvraham Shaul I0 Fortheorigins HamasandHezbollah, Sela, The Palestinian Hamas(New York:ColumbiaUniversity Judith Palmer Hezbollah: Press, Harik, 2000), and the (New changing ofterrorism York:I. B. Tauris, face 2004).
Pantheon, 2004).

955

Mohammed Ayoob Clearly,then,politicalIslam comes in variousshapes and sizes; it may, in to fact,be more accurateto refer thisphenomenonin the plural,as 'political Islams'.Why, then,do so manyoutsideobservers perceivepoliticalIslamto be a monolithicphenomenon?The answerlies in partin the use of a common and in part in theirsimilarattitude vocabularyby a diverseset of Islamists The similarity vocabularycan be in towardsthe international structure. power with reference the domestic political systems to within explained primarily which most Islamistgroups operate and which they wish to change. The in towardsthe international distribution power can of similarity theirattitude be explainedprincipally the impactof the international on by power structure Muslim societiesand on causes that are perceived as 'Muslim' by the large of majority Muslimsaroundthe world. It is my argument thisarticlethatthesetwo variables, in namelythe nature of regimes within and manyMuslimcountries theinternational power structure, especiallythe policies followed by the dominantpowers in the international both of which are external the phenomenonwe call politicalIslam, to system, are crucial as faras the future politicalIslam around the Muslim world is of concerned.One cannotmake predictions of about thefuture Islamism without the analysing role thatthesetwo factors play,and have played,in aidingas well as obstructing politicalIslam.

in Political and couniries systems regimes Muslim

The natureof the political systems and regimesprevailingin many Muslim countries had, continuesto have and is likelyto go on havinga significant has adopted by Islamists impacton the growthof politicalIslam and the strategies in thesecountries. Closed politicalsystems authoritarian are and regimes highly conducive to growthin the popularity Islamist of and politicalformations the stifle debate as well as Islamist ideology.Such regimes politicaland intellectual disablingalmostall secularoppositionthroughthe medium of the effectively statebased on the effective of mukhabarat, literally 'intelligence', penetration societyby the state'sintelligenceagencies with the overriding objective of the and of regimes. assuring security longevity existing theseveryregimes, successfully secularopposiParadoxically, by eliminating tion movementsand partiesand banishing'normal' politics,have createdthe have moved. This is politicaland intellectual space into which the Islamists statecan fully because not even the most efficient opposirepressive suppress tion expressedthrough the religiousidiom. Unlike seculargroups,which can in themfrom be neutralized preventing speaking public and from spreading by can the theirmessagethrough media, Islamist politicalactivity neverbe effecit tivelycurbed because of the idiom it uses and the institutions can exploit. of has like thevocabulary mostotherreligions, the Islamicreligious vocabulary, to to uses.At thesametime,it can be made to appear potential lenditself political retribution. immune to governmental politicallyinnocuous and, therefore,

956

Islam Thefuture political of as Publishinghouses thatprintreligiousliterature, well as mosques and affilicontrolof the state, thoseoutsidethe formal can be ated institutions, especially used to send out politicalmessagesdressedup in religiousgarb. The Islamic Revolution in Iran is probablythe leading example of this suppressionof all opposition created the phenomenon. The Shah's ruthless led politicalvacuum into which the Islamists by Khomeini moved. It was this as itself the vacuum thatallowed the radical factionof the clergyto portray regime.11 to primary, not theonly,avenue foropposition theShah'srepressive if The religiousidiom used by the anti-Shahulamain theirsermons,including incarnationof the of ellipticalportrayals the Shah as the twentieth-century in usurper Caliph Yazid, on whose ordersImam Hussein was martyred 680 CE, resonatedwith the Shi'i population of Iran. At the same time,the repressive political agenciesof the statewere unable to respondadequatelyto the implicit use of such imagerybecause to do so would have offendedthe religious turmoil.This was of sensibilities the Iranian population and created further borne out by the factthatthe revolutionwas triggered the decision of the by Shah's regimein August-September I978 to crackdown on the radicalclerics their Khomeini. a and undertake public campaignto discredit leader,Ayatollah that with fatalconsequencesforthe Shah's regime. It was a strategy backfired, However, Iranis not the only example of thisphenomenon.The repressive boost to the popupolicies of the FLN regimein Algeriagave a tremendous of the Islamic Salvation Frontby removingall its secular competitors. larity successiveEgyptianregimesso debilitatedthe secular opposition Similarly, to the the from liberals through Arabnationalists thecommungroups,ranging One findsthe same pattern ists,thattheyleftthe fieldclear forthe Islamists. repeatedin countryafterMuslim country,especiallyin the Middle East. In such as Indonesia and Malaysia,where genuinepolithose Muslim countries, even if imperfectly, tical competitionhas been permitted, Islamists, especially even iftheyoccasionally of the radicalhue, have been marginalized politically actsof terror. engage in dramatic in of in regimes, additionto being ruthless theirrepression Unrepresentative to and unresponsive societaldemands. politicalopposition,are usuallycorrupt net Consequently,theyfailto providesocial servicesand a safety forthe most vulnerablesegmentsof their populations. This is another void into which Islamistgroups move throughcharitablenetworksaffiliated or set up as to, Such charitable networks formations. front for,Islamist political organizations of helping the needy by providingsocial fulfil the religiously enjoined duty they assist support to the weakest sections of society. More importantly, Islamistgroups and movementsto cultivatecrucial constituencies, especially
Iran is the exception to the rule in the Muslim world in the sense thatthe Islamistmovement was led by and activists. While movementsinspiredby radical elementsfromthe clergy,ratherthan lay intellectuals such as the late Ali Shariati,contributedto the revolutionary process,theywere quickly lay intellectuals, sidelined by the better-organized ulama,who had greaterfinancialresourcesand grass-roots support in merchantclass,and among the massesof the underprivileged urban among the bazaris,the traditional Iran.

957

Mohammed Ayoob
of alienatedfrom among the underprivileged segments the population(already and corrupt thatcan be mobilized forpoliticalaction. unresponsive regimes), The close connections between Islamist charitablenetworksand Islamist fromTurkey throughEgypt to Pakistanand Indonesia political formations have come to provide Islamist groupswith greatstaying power in the face of staterepression. This nexus also providesa key to theirgrowingpopularity.I2 The natureof regimesin manyMuslim countries, in especially the broader Middle East (includingCentral Asia), is a crucial contributory factorin the of infer One may reasonably fromthis popularity Islamist politicalformations. that as long as authoritarian repressive and analysis regimescontinue to rule Muslim countries,Islamismas an ideology and a political movement will continueto thrive withinthosecountries. While it is truethatthe character of these regimescan be explained with reference many factors to operatingin in combinations different varying places,the outcome as faras politicalIslamis concerned is similarin almost all contexts.'3In sum, the natureof a state's variablein determining degreeof popularity the regimeactsas an independent in Muslim countries. politicalIslamis able to garner widelydivergent

The international structure USforeign and power policy

The otherindependent variableexternal the phenomenonof Islamism to that is of greatrelevanceto itsfuture the international is power structure, especially thepoliciesfollowedby the majorpowersand, above all in thepost-Cold War it. world,theUnited States'unrivalled power and thepoliciesthatflowfrom It withoutsayingthatthe current of distribution power in the international goes is system heavilytiltedagainstthe Muslim countries.This is in largepartthe result the colonialprocessand thepoliciesfollowedby thedominant of powers in the post-colonialperiod to consolidateand extendthe strategic econoand mic gainstheyhad achievedduringthe colonial era. Such policiesof directand indirect domination have left an indelible mark on the psyche of most are politicallyconscious Muslims. This is a mindsetthat Islamists in a good to exploit,fora numberof reasons. position The first reasonis thattheyhave a simpleand apparently coherentexplanation forMuslim political decline. As statedabove, they argue thatMuslim societiesdeclined the more theymoved away fromthe model of the golden versionof the earlyyearsof Islam. age thatcan be foundin theirromanticized that They arguefurther the golden age was lostwhen Muslimsdepartedfrom Islam. Their prescription therefore, is, pure and pristine simple:ifMuslimsare
Islamist See Rosefsky mobilization in Turkey White, Islam; Wickham, Mobilizing Jenny (Seattle: of RobertW. Heffner, Press, Revolution; University Washington of Islamic 2003),Nasr,Thevanguardthe CivilIslam Press, (Princeton, Princeton 2000). NJ: University 13Foran analysis thereasons theexistence authoritarian of for of in see regimes theMuslim world, Mohammed world's of and the Ayoob,'The Muslim poorrecord modernization democratization: of and in and ed., factors', Shireen Hunter, Modernization, interplay external internal democracy, Islam and for (New York:Center Strategic International Studies/Praeger, 2005).
I2

958

Islam Thefuture ofpolitical a able to recreate trueand pure Islamicsociety, theywill be able to regaintheir former glory-or at least compete with the West on a basis of equality.Their The slogan 'Islam is the solution'emanatesfromtheseinterlocking arguments. has Islamistprescription found great resonance in widely divergent Muslim societiesbecause in the immediatepost-colonialyearsthe secular,nationalist freedom, power or wealthto most projecthas been unable to providedignity, Muslimsaroundthe world. The model of the 'strangers' thereis havingfailed, to romanticized model of the 'ancestors'a strong to revert a highly tendency despite the fact that, as Fouad Ajami has pointed out, 'The people who surrender the ancestorsare, strictly to to ... speaking,surrendering strangers can can Authenticity be as much an escape as dependenceand mimicry be.'I4 However, the matterdoes not end there. The major powers and their for responsible keeppoliciesare perceivedby mostMuslimsas beingprimarily ing Muslim societies in the sad plight they are in today. This applies in to context.In much of the Muslim particular Americanpolicies in the current world, American policies are seen as being deliberately anti-Muslim,aimed at in any challengeto westerndominationfromarising principally preventing Muslim countries.This is the other side of the 'clash of civilizations'thesis such as BernardLewis and Samuel Huntington the in propoundedby scholars 15 United States. findsgreatresonanceamong Muslim societies;and thereis This argument more thana grainof truth it. The policiesof erstwhile in colonialpowersin the in to I95os and the I96os, especially the Middle East,bore adequate testimony thefactthatBritainand Francewere committed maintaining to theircontrolof strategically important partsof the Muslim world despite the formalend of colonialism.Such policies rangedfromthe overthrowof Mossadegh after he nationalizedthe Anglo-IranianOil Company in 1953 to the British-FrenchIsraeliinvasionofEgyptfollowing Nasser'snationalization the Suez Canal in of Since the major colonial powers were important allies of the United 1956. States,the opprobrium heaped on themrubbedoffon Americaas well. This perceptionwas augmentedby the Cold War strategies adopted by the for United Statesand itsproclivity stepping intotheEuropean powers' imperial shoes, especiallyin the Middle East. America'scurrent military occupation of as Iraq fallswithinthe same imperialist pattern faras most Muslims are conthe cerned.'6 Furthermore, supportextendedby western powers,above all by the United Statesduringthe Cold War and beyond,to hatedauthoritarian and in theMuslimworldhas further alienatedtheMuslimmasses repressive regimes from West in generaland theUnited Statesin particular. the Supportextended to the Shah of Iran forms the quintessential example of thispolicy,but is not
14FouadAjami,TheArab rev. Press, predicament, edn (New York:Cambridge University I992), p. 242. 'The roots Muslim of Atlantic 266: I5 Bernard Lewis, I990; Samuel rage', Monthly 3, September Huntington, 'The clashofcivilizations', 72: Foreign Affairs 3, Summer I993. I6 Thispoint in hasbeeneloquently and argued RashidKhalidi, Resurrecting western empire: footprints America's Middle (Boston, East MA: Beacon,2004). perilous inthe path

959

Mohammed Ayoob the only instance.American supportfor regimeslike those of Mubarak in of the I98os is a thread anti-US folkEgyptand Saddam Husseinin Iraq during lore not onlyin the Middle East but throughout Muslim world. the and AmericansupAbove all, however,it is the unstinting unquestioning for occupationof,and settlement especially itspolicyofcontinued portforIsrael, to within,Palestinianlands conquered in I967, that demonstrates politically to the consciousMuslimsthatthe United Statesis committed treating Muslim world not onlywithinsensitivity withutter but They perceivesuch contempt. oftenoverlooked by a policies as a violation of theirdignity, consideration most western political analystsof the Muslim world. For most Muslims, towardsAmericais not based on oppositionto 'Americanvalues' of antipathy aspectsof democracyand freedom.It is fundamentally groundedin particular Americanforeign the policy,especially perceptionof Washington'soperation of blatant double standards relation the Middle East. in to of the concerns relatingto dignitycome togetheron the issue of Many Palestine.Palestinehas, therefore, become the Muslim grievance excellence. par 'PalesconsciousMuslimsbelievethatall Muslimsarepotential Many politically and with tinians'-the ultimate who can be dispossessed dishonoured outsiders, and thejustice of whose cause will alwaysbe dismissed theWest, by impunity, and particularly the United States,as irrational fanaticism. The occupation by of Iraq has further fuelledMuslim anger againstthe United States,since it is a to seen as a ploy to fragment majorAraband Muslim country, controlthe oil wealthof theMiddle East,and to consolidateIsraelihegemonyin theregion.'7 It is the disillusionment withAmericanforeign policyin the contextof past to and the current sense of powerlessness thatbringsresistance humiliations The Islamists maniwestern domination alive in Muslims'political imagination. and pulate thisgeneralsense of disenchantment anger to advance theirown in agendasagainst US-supportedregimes the Muslimworld. When and where elements the sense of impotence becomes very acute, it provides extremist climateof despairto undertake to with the opportunity exploitthe prevailing the rightto terrorist activities. Extremist groups that arrogateto themselves as terrorism the onlyway to overcome the speak in the name of 'Islam'justify in asymmetry power betweenthe 'Muslims'and 'theWest'. They see terrorism fromthe hands of western that can wrestthe initiative as the only strategy in powers and thoseperceivedto be theirsurrogates the Muslim world. The main point, however, is thatAmericanpolicies towardsthe Muslim world, especiallythose relatingto the Middle East, are a major factorin Muslimswho cannot be among ordinary promotingthe Islamists' popularity of What makes Islamism describedas Islamists any stretch the imagination. by as attractive a politicalideology is the factthatit is able to providea religious of for idiom,to which manyMuslimscan relate, the expression mostMuslims'
17

in and Mohammed implications', ThomasG. Weiss, Iraq:normative strategic Ayoob,'The waragainst and unilateralism US and on Crahan John and eds, rights, Goering, Thewars terrorismIraq:human Margaret foreign (New York:Routledge, policy 2004), ch. 7.

960

Thefuture Islam ofpolitical This makes Islamist genuine grievances,both domestic and international. groupsloom largerthantheyare withinMuslim societies,because theyspeak can of to the concernsoflargenumbers Muslimswho themselves in no way be consideredIslamists.

of Islam Thefuture political

The above analysismakes clear that the Islamists'vocabulary,their simple diagnosisof the reasonsfor Muslim decline, and theireven more simplistic couched in the phrase'Islam is the solution',have considerable prescription, Muslim societies. In order to have resonance within separateand different and theprescription mustbe tailored of course,thevocabulary politicalappeal, Muslim in to, and interpreted relationto, the discretecontextsof different societies;and thisis what Islamistgroupsare engaged in doing in the widely milieuxin which theyoperate. divergent not are However, thesefactors by themselves enough to explaintheincreasing appeal of Islamismthathas been evidentover the past few decades. The in can be foundprimarily factors explanationforIslamism'srisingpopularity but are externalto the phenomenon. thatare not inherentin Islamismitself variableshave been identified crucialin thisarticle:the as Two such external Middle natureof regimesin most Muslim countries, especiallyin the greater East, which has proved highlyconducive to the growthof Islamism;and the of imbalance in the global distribution power, where most cards are stacked Muslim countries-especiallytruein the Middle East,but generalizable against the throughout Muslim world. to of Unless the contribution these crucial externalfactors the growthin to Islamism's popularappeal is recognized,it will not be possiblefully comprehend this phenomenon or to make useful predictions about its future unlesssomething done to change the character is More important, trajectory. as and Muslimregimes well as to changesignificantly of authoritarian repressive the substanceof Americanpolicy towardsthe Muslim world, especiallythe a amount of Middle East, political Islam will continue to attract significant Muslim populations.If such changesare not made, Islamism's supportamong devoteesof that politicalappeal will continueto reachbeyond the committed ideology.

96I