Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| October 25, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| October 25, 2012

Highlights
US Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 0.25 percent in October UK BBA Mortgage Approvals increased by 31,200 in September. Belgium NBB Business Climate declined by 13.5-mark in October. Asian markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from favorable home sales data from the US economy and as the US Federal Reserve stated that the economy is growing on a modest pace. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals increased by 31,200 in September as against a rise of 30,700 in August. Belgium NBB Business Climate declined by 13.5-mark in October as against a previous decline of 11.6-level in September. European Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at -26-mark in the month of September. US Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 0.25 percent for the month of October

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Nov12) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield
5691.4 18710.0 13077.34 1408.8 15706.6 1914.0

as on October 24, 2012 Prev. day

-0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.8 -0.7

WoW
0.6 0.5 -3.5 -3.6 -3.2 -2.1

MoM
0.5 0.4 -2.5 -3.5 1.9 -3.4

YoY
9.6 8.4 11.7 13.8 -2.2 1.3

57160.7 8954.3 85.73 1700.50

-0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5

-4.9 -0.1 -6.9 -2.9

-5.5 0.5 -4.7 -2.9

1.6 2.2 -8.0 0.1

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index swung between gains and losses and ended 0.1 lower on Wednesday. US Dollar Index (DX) was trading lower on the back of better economic data from the US economy thereby increasing the demand from the low yielding currency that is DX. However, the index witnessed rise in the risk aversion towards the end of the session as US Federal Reserve did not delivered any surprising statement in the policy meeting yesterday. The currency failed to erase the earlier losses and ended lower. US equities ended lower as the US Federal Reserve stated that the economy was growing modestly and unemployment remains high thereby created bearish market sentiments. However, sharp downside was cushioned on the back of positive new home sales data from the nation. The currency touched low of 79.91 and closed at 80.02 levels on Wednesday.

3159.50

-0.5

-4.8

-6.8

-4.4

7860.50

0.1

-4.3

-3.5

4.3

470.25

0.0

-4.1

-0.1

-11.7

100.07

0.0

0.1

0.2

6.6

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
80.02 53.73 53.82 53.82

as on October 24, 2012 Prev. day

-0.1 0.0 0.59 0.57

WoW
1.2 -1.7 1.60 1.58

MoM
0.1 -0.3 0.63 0.62

YoY
4.8 -7.9 6.78 7.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets day before yesterday along with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from the oil refiners and companies also acted as a supportive factor for the currency. . The currency touched a high of 53.84 in Tuesdays session and closed at 53.72 on Tuesday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 11,579.70 crores till rd 23 October 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood rd at Rs. 93,910.50 crores till 22 October 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect rupee to appreciate on the back of firmness in the Asian markets along with weakness in the DX. However, month end dollar demand may cushion sharp appreciation in the currency today. Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

Source: Telequote

valid for October 25, 2012 Support 53.50/53.20 Resistance 54.0/54.25

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| October 25, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro declined 0.1 percent as ECB President Mario Draghi said that the region is facing deflation and thereby hurting growth in the region. Further, a series of unfavorable data from the region also acted as bearish factor for the currency in yesterdays session. However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The currency touched a low of 1.2918 and closed at 1.2971 on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally favorable data from the region is expected to support upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.70/69.45 70.15/70.30 valid for October 25, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.2971 69.67 70.00

as on October 24, 2012 Prev. day

-0.1 0.1 0.14

WoW
-1.1 -0.5 1.53

MoM
0.8 -1.0 0.86

YoY
-6.7 -1.2 0.98

70.0

0.16

1.58

0.92

1.39

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX> However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of weak global market sentiments along with unfavorable economic data from the country. The currency touched an intra-day high of and closed at 1.6036 on Wednesday. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Pound to appreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of favorable economic data from the country will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for October 25, 2012 Support 85.60/85.20 Resistance 86.25/86.50
Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.6036 86.17 86.05

as on October 24, 2012

Prev. day
0.5 -0.6 0.28

WoW
-0.7 -1.0 1.00

MoM
-0.8 0.5 -1.04

YoY
0.2 -8.8 7.84

86.04

0.26

1.01

-1.05

8.16

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| October 25, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets in the early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day high of 79.68 and closed at 79.80 on Wednesday. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) declined by 0.5 percent in September as against a previous decline of 0.3 percent a month ago Outlook In todays session, we expect to yen to depreciate on account of rise in risk appetite due to mixed global sentiments which could reduce the demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for October 25, 2012 Support 66.98/66.60 Resistance 67.58/67.80 Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
79.8 0.6732 67.37

as on October 24, 2012 Prev day

-0.1 -0.1 0.63

WoW
1.1 -0.6 0.31

MoM
2.7 2.3 -1.38

YoY
4.9 -3.5 2.75

67.36

0.64

0.30

-1.41

3.02

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on October 25, 2012

Indicator Prelim GDP q/q MPC Member Tucker Speaks Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Unemployment Claims Durable Goods Orders m/m Pending Home Sales m/m Country UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 3:45pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 0.6% 0.8% 371K 7.1% 2.3% Previous -0.4% -1.6% 388K -13.2% -2.6% Impact High Medium High High Medium High

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