Rational Decision Making For Engineers

Silicon Valley Code Camp 2012 By Tim Child

Overview
What We'll Cover Today Speakers Biography Why This Topic Decision Making Patterns The Decision Process Framing a Decision Decision Requirements Must Requirements Want Requirements Evaluating Alternatives Worked Example Tools/Publishing Reference Material Q & A

Speakers Bio

Over 30 years Experience Programmer and Blogger CEO 3DMashup Previously VP Engineering Oracle, BEA Systems, Informix Inc.

Why Are Decisions Hard?

Impact Fair Rational Transparent Understood

On the really tough ones I go rock, paper, scissors,

Goal: Get Commitment from Stakeholders!

Decision Style
Manager Authority

Subordinates Freedom

Manager decides, announces

Manager sells

Manager presents ideas, invites questions

Manager presents tentative decision subject to change

From: Tannenbaum & Schmidt, HBR May 1973

Manager presents problem, gets suggestions, makes decision

Manager Manager defines permits limits, subordinates group to function makes within limits decision

The Decision Process

Use Case Make Decision Create Decision Statement

Generate Requirements Generate Alternatives Generate Musts Generate Wants Evaluate Alternatives Announce Decision

Framing A Decision

Framing Impacts Peoples Benefits/Loss Differently How you Frame a Decision Impacts its Outcome

The Decision Statement

The Focus of the Decision Process Specifies Action or Intended Result Sets Limits of Choices

Goal; Generate a Balanced Decision Statement

Decision Requirements
Establish the Objectives a Decision Specific Details of What's to be Accomplished Two Categories Wants Musts Done Before Considering the Alternatives

Must Requirements

Must Be Achieved to Guarantee Success Mandatory Measurable

Decides Who are the Players

Want Requirements

Judged on Relative Performance Hard to Measure Must Can be Weighted for Importance

Decides Who's the Winner

Evaluating Alternatives

Ideal Alternative Fulfills Every Condition Ideal Alternatives Are Rare Very Risky Alternative is Not the Best Choice Decide if a Sole Alternative is Good Enough

Decision Matrix
Statement: In Which City Should We Locate European Software Development? Requirements Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Musts Must 1 Must 2 Meets Requirements Wants Want 1 Want 2 Want 3 Score Weighted Score Rank Weight 50% 25% 25% 100 80 20 200 75 2 120 60 40 220 85 1 200 100 20 320 130 X

Worked Example

Consequences of the Choice

The evil that men do lives after them, the good is oft interred with their bones ... William Shakespeare

Evaluate Adverse Consequences Before a Final Decision Managed Risks are OK Don't Ignore Your Instincts

Tools &Publishing

Whiteboard Spread Sheet/ MS Word Google Docs Desktop App Mobile App Email

References

New Rational Manager Amazon Book HBR Leadership Patterns Tannenbaum & Schmidt Slides on my Blog Post Slides a Silicon Valley Code Camp 2012

The New Rational Manager

First Published 1965 Princeton Research Press Republished 1981 Republished Again 1997 Available at Amazon.Com

Contents Problem Diagnosis Decision Analysis Problem Prediction

Question & Answers