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Federal Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq)
2.9 0.9 13.0
`488 -
2QFY13
492 347 190
2QFY12
474 361 191
% chg (yoy)
6.6 (3.2) 12.5
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
During 2QFY2013, Federal Bank reported an operating profit decline of 3.2% yoy. However 57.8% yoy lower provisioning expenses aided the bank to post a net profit growth of 12.5% yoy to `215cr. NIMs improve sequentially; Asset quality pressure easing: The bank witnessed a modest growth of 8.0% yoy in advances, while the growth in deposits was subdued at 4.8% yoy. Within advances, retail and SME & agri book registered a healthy growth of 17.6% and 15.4% yoy, respectively, while the corporate book de-grew by 1.7% yoy. On the deposits front, the bank witnessed a strong growth of 23.9% yoy in its current deposits, while growth in savings deposits was healthy at 15.5% yoy. Consequently, CASA ratio improved by 5bp sequentially and 297bp yoy to 28.7%. The reported NIMs for the bank improved by 16bp qoq to 3.6%, as yields on advances and investments improved sequentially by 23bp and 15bp, while the increase in cost of deposits was limited to 6bp. Other income excluding treasury remained flat on a yoy basis, on account of lower recoveries (`10cr compared to `14cr in 2QFY2012) and a sharp decline of 35.5% yoy in forex income. Growth in fee income was robust at 15.0% yoy. The banks slippages for 2QFY2013 stood at `144cr (retail `42cr, SME - `90cr, Agri `13cr and corporate - nil). Annualized slippage rate at 1.5% came in much lower compared to the quarterly average of 4.0% since 1QFY2011. PCR for the bank continues to remain strong at 82.9%. The bank restructured accounts worth `230cr in 2QFY2013 taking the total outstanding restructured book to `2,538cr (`1,956cr of standard restructured assets). The bank has exposure of `200cr to NAFED, which remains a servicing account. The bank remain watchful of 8-10 accounts amounting to `700-800cr (including NAFED). Outlook and valuation: The bank has been expanding its branch network and increasing its business profile at a strong pace which should lead to healthy growth in its balance sheet over the next two years. Further with the asset quality of the bank seeing improvement, we expect lower provisioning expenses in FY2013 than in FY2012. Although the de-regulation of NRE TD deposits has not had any significant effect on the low cost deposit base of the bank till now, we remain wary of the possible incremental higher costs due to shift from NRE SBs to NRE TDs. Even the stock has surged significantly and now trades at 1.2x FY2014E P/BV. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 22.5 39.9 37.7
3m 10.9 19.6
FY2012
1,953 11.8 777 32.3 3.6 45.4 10.7 1.5 1.4 14.4
FY2013E
2,068 5.8 784 1.0 3.3 45.9 10.6 1.3 1.2 13.1
FY2014E
2,384 15.3 884 12.8 3.2 51.7 9.4 1.2 1.1 13.3
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 1,526 1,153 354 13 6 1,020 506 139 104 81 36 10 12 645 296 159 136 350 30 20 (5) 15 319 104 215 32.6
1QFY13 1,537 1,163 355 17 2 1,045 492 124 98 67 26 7 24 616 269 152 117 347 63 76 (21) 7 284 93 190 32.9
% chg (qoq) (0.7) (0.9) (0.3) (23.5) 275.5 (2.4) 2.9 12.1 5.6 21.5 36.5 47.1 (50.1) 4.8 9.7 4.6 16.4 0.9 (51.5) (73.6) 102.4 12.5 11.5 13.0 (30)bp
2QFY12 1,368 1,050 310 6 2 893 474 117 103 70 14 14 19 591 230 128 102 361 72 57 7 8 289 98 191 33.9
% chg (yoy) 11.5 9.8 14.2 124.6 206.5 14.1 6.6 19.2 0.7 15.0 154.7 (23.5) (35.5) 9.1 28.5 24.3 33.8 (3.2) (57.8) (64.8) 78.3 10.4 6.3 12.5 (126)bp
1HFY13 3,062 2,316 709 29 7 2,065 998 264 202 148 62 18 36 1,261 565 312 253 696 93 96 (25) 22 603 197 405 32.8
1HFY12 2,613 2,027 570 12 4 1,678 934 234 204 134 30 37 33 1,168 453 259 194 715 206 171 22 13 509 172 337 33.7
% chg (qoq) 17.2 14.3 24.4 148.7 23.0 23.0 6.8 12.8 (1.0) 10.2 106.2 (52.5) 24.4 8.0 24.8 20.3 30.9 (2.7) (54.8) (43.9) 72.2 18.4 14.9 20.2 (99)bp
Var. (%) 0.5 11.3 2.6 8.3 (1.7) (62.6) 16.4 17.0 16.1
2QFY13 36,299 49,518 73.3 2,458 11,758 14,216 28.7 15.8 15.1 7.6 12.8 7.9 3.6 45.8 1,435 3.8 245 0.6 82.9 1.5 0.1
1QFY13 38,043 50,558 75.2 2,514 11,977 14,491 28.7 15.5 14.7 7.6 12.5 7.8 3.4 43.7 1,409 3.6 236 0.6 83.2 3.1 0.5
% chg (qoq) 2QFY12 (4.6) (2.1) (194)bp (2.2) (1.8) (1.9) 5bp 34bp 36bp 6bp 23bp 15bp 16bp 207bp 1.9 23bp 3.8 (4)bp (31)bp (154)bp (36)bp 33,607 47,263 71.1 1,983 10,183 12,166 25.7 15.1 14.0 7.4 12.7 7.2 3.8 38.9 1,250 3.6 196 0.6 84.3 3.3 0.4
% chg (yoy) 8.0 4.8 220bp 23.9 15.5 16.8 297bp 74bp 103bp 17bp 1bp 70bp (19)bp 691bp 14.8 22bp 25.2 0bp (142)bp (179)bp (28)bp
As of 2QFY2013, the banks branch network stood at 1010 (54% in Kerala). The management has plans to add 35-40 branches in the near term. As of 2QFY2013, 62% of the banks loan exposure and 45% of the deposits are from outside the state of Kerala.
21.6 30.9
17.6 26.6
18.2 13.8
19.0 17.8
8.0 4.8
2QFY13
5.0
68.0 66.0
During 2QFY2013, the yields on advances and investments improved sequentially by 23bp and 15bp to 12.8% and 7.9%, respectively. The cost of deposits also increased sequentially by 6bp to 7.6%. Consequently, the NIMs improved by 16bp qoq to 3.6%. Going forward, the management has guided for NIMs to remain in the range of 3.5-3.6%.
12.74
12.91
12.52
12.52
12.75
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Source: Company, Angel Research
83.0
80.5
81.1
80.2
80.0
0.1
1,250 196
1,363 244
1,301 199
1,409 236
1,435 245
(0.3) 4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2QFY12 3QFY12 38.9 37.1
42.9
43.7
1.9 1.7
1.9
136
102
109
133
117
30.0 20.0
1.7
1.7
128
138
146
152
159
10.0 -
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
Investment arguments
Asset quality has improved
During FY2011, the bank had witnessed elevated NPAs from its retail and SME loan book. However, the management has been taking various steps to stabilize its asset-quality woes (which are reflected in the asset quality improvement in the last few quarters and lower slippage levels in 1HFY2013 compared to FY2011) and expects higher recoveries and lower slippages going forward, subject to the external environment.
Earlier estimates FY2013 20.0 20.0 26.0 3.2 0.1 15.0 15.0 2.7 79.6 FY2014 20.0 20.0 23.9 3.2 12.2 15.0 15.0 2.4 76.7
Revised estimates FY2013 18.0 18.0 26.4 3.3 3.1 18.0 24.0 2.3 80.4 FY2014 20.0 20.0 24.3 3.2 6.5 13.0 13.0 2.0 79.6
FY2014 Earlier estimates 2,412 598 3,009 1,295 1,714 385 1,330 431 898 Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,384 585 2,968 1,335 1,633 324 1,309 425 884 (1.2) (2.2) (1.4) 3.1 (4.8) (15.8) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6)
Earlier estimates 2,060 533 2,593 1,126 1,467 329 1,138 369 769
Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,068 549 2,617 1,182 1,435 274 1,161 377 784 0.4 3.0 0.9 4.9 (2.2) (16.7) 2.0 2.0 2.0
Price (`)
0.3x
0.6x
0.9x
1.2x
1.5x
FY2014E RoA (%) 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5
FY2014E RoE (%) 20.2 13.3 22.0 15.5 16.9 23.5 15.7 15.3 17.2 16.3 15.5 15.3 14.7 15.1 15.9 14.4 16.3 13.6 17.7 13.9 17.3 17.7 16.8 14.4 16.3 16.2 13.0
16.0 6.7 27.9 20.9 4.2 23.5 (0.4) 1.0 7.1 20.8 35.5 7.2 100.1 (2.2) 3.1 20.1 2.5 27.1 6.5 26.5 7.4 21.7 11.7 7.9 19.8 20.7 12.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP target price/ABV (including subsidiaries); Without adjusting for SASF
32,198 36,058
57,746 69,295
38,851 43,676
70,925 84,481
12,119 13,055 22,392 26,950 18.4 281 622 19.5 20.4 290 658 12.4
20,225 24,031 44,552 53,462 18.0 370 1,883 17.0 20.0 428 2,243 19.1
38,851 43,676
70,925 84,481
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis (%) NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage (x) RoE 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 2.3 1.1 3.4 1.6 1.7 0.5 1.3 10.7 13.8 3.7 1.3 2.4 0.2 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.6 2.2 0.8 1.4 8.7 12.2 3.4 1.0 2.4 0.3 2.7 1.0 3.7 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.1 9.2 10.3 3.7 1.1 2.6 0.1 2.7 1.0 3.7 1.8 1.9 0.7 1.2 9.7 12.0 3.5 0.60 2.9 0.1 3.0 0.8 3.8 1.7 2.1 0.7 1.4 10.4 14.4 3.1 0.42 2.7 0.1 2.8 0.7 3.6 1.8 1.8 0.6 1.2 10.9 13.1 3.1 0.4 2.7 0.0 2.7 0.7 3.4 1.7 1.7 0.5 1.1 11.7 13.3 22.6 2.1 0.8 16.6 1.9 1.0 17.9 1.8 1.0 14.2 1.6 1.7 10.7 1.5 1.8 10.6 1.3 1.7 9.4 1.2 2.1 21.5 229.2 4.0 29.3 252.6 5.0 27.2 273.9 5.0 34.3 298.3 8.5 45.4 333.3 9.0 45.9 369.3 8.5 51.7 409.3 10.0 2.4 0.2 1.7 0.7 90.8 2.6 0.3 3.0 1.0 88.4 3.0 0.5 3.3 1.0 84.3 3.5 0.6 3.2 1.0 83.4 3.3 0.5 2.1 0.4 84.7 2.9 0.6 2.3 0.4 80.4 2.5 0.5 2.0 0.4 79.6 25.1 73.0 22.5 19.1 24.5 69.5 20.2 18.4 26.2 74.7 18.4 16.9 26.9 74.3 16.8 15.6 27.5 77.2 16.6 15.9 26.4 77.2 15.8 15.0 24.3 77.2 14.7 14.0 3.1 37.1 1.3 13.8 3.8 31.2 1.4 12.2 3.5 34.9 1.1 10.3 3.8 36.9 1.2 12.0 3.6 39.4 1.4 14.4 3.3 45.2 1.2 13.1 3.2 45.0 1.1 13.3 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Federal Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11