HS TOC

Fruity Pebbles (1/3)

Lack of infrastructure makes accidents and conflict in the Bering Strait likely AMSA 9 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Infrastructure, Navigation and Communication
(Scenarios, Futures and Regional Futures, 2010, http://ine.uaf.edu/accap/documents/AMSAScenariosandRegionalFutures.pdf)

There are currently no established vessel routing measures in the Bering Strait region. A Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) may need to be established in the region as vessel traffic increases. There is currently no active Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) or other traffic management system in place in the waters of the Bering Strait . Shipboard Automated Identification System (AIS) capability is currently limited. Presently the Marine Exchange of Alaska has established
and is expanding AIS reception capability throughout portions of the Bering Sea. There are no shore-based very high frequency (VHF) FM communication services available in the Bering Strait region. The U.S. Coast Guard does maintain VHF-FM sites in the Bering Sea, and maintains a HF radio guard for emergency and distress calling, but maintained navigational aids at the Bering Strait along the north side of the Seward Peninsula into Kotzebue Sound. There

HF coverage of the Arctic region is poor. There are only three U.S. Coast Guard are no navigational

aids north of Kotzebue Sound. There is 100 percent coverage of the Bering Strait region from the Global Positioning System-Standard Positioning Service (GPS-SPS). However, the GPS constellation is not configured for optimal positioning in high latitudes, resulting in a potential degradation of position accuracy. There is currently no Differential GPS (DGPS) coverage of the area. In the Bering Strait region, limited capabilities exist to respond to an incident, whether it is for lifesaving or oil recovery. Weather and oceanographic observations necessary to support search and rescue and oil recovery operations are also minimal. Even if a U.S. Coast Guard operating team were seasonally deployed to an Arctic coastal community, weather and distance to an incident site would remain huge challenges. Under present circumstances, vessels in distress must depend on other vessels or local communities in the area for assistance or wait until aid arrives. Few viable salvage vessels are available north of the Aleutian Islands. Arctic conflict is more probable than any other scenario and accesses an invisible threshold routes are opening now Joyner 9 (James Joyner, managing editor of the Atlantic Council, Arctic Thaw Brings NATO Security Risks,http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/arctic-thaw-brings-nato-security-risks)
NATO leaders said yesterday that an Arctic thaw will create new security concerns for the Alliance and they don't mean "security" in a postmodern sense in which any concern is labeled one of security to help argue for increased funding. David Stringer reports for AP: An Arctic thaw will open up

sea routes and competition for lucrative energy reserves in a multinational scramble sure to pose new security threats, NATO's chief said Thursday. NATO commanders and lawmakers meeting in Iceland's capital said a military presence in the region will eventually be needed as standoffs between powerful nations unfold. "I would be the last one to expect military conflict but
there will be a military presence," NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told delegates. "It should be a military presence that is not overdone, and there is a need for political cooperation and economic cooperation." The NATO chief said negotiations involving Russia, NATO and other nations are the key to preventing a future conflict. De Hoop Scheffer is expected to meet Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov next week to discuss such issues. The opening up of Arctic sea routes once only navigable by icebreakers threatens to complicate delicate relations between countries with competing claims to Arctic territory particularly as once inaccessible areas become ripe for exploration for oil and natural gas. The United States, Russia and Canada are among the countries attempting to claim jurisdiction over Arctic territory alongside Nordic nations. Analysts say China is also likely to join a rush to capture oil and gas trapped under the region's ice. "Several Arctic rim countries are strengthening their capabilities, and military activity in the High North region has been steadily increasing," de Hoop Scheffer said. Strategists expect territorial disputes to become increasingly aggressive as the world's energy demands increase. "Climate change is not a fanciful idea, it is already a reality, a reality that brings with it certain new challenges, including for NATO," said de Hoop Scheffer, acknowledging that an upsurge of energy exploration would likely require a larger NATO presence in the Arctic. Some scientists predict

that Arctic waters could be ice-free in summers by 2013, decades earlier than previously thought. De Hoop Scheffer said
trans-Arctic routes are likely to become an alternative to passage through the Suez or Panama canals for commercial shipping. "The end of the Cold War resulted in a marked reduction in military activity in the High North Iceland would like it to stay that way," Iceland's outgoing Prime Minister Geir Haarde told the conference. Haarde tendered his resignation Monday amid the country's economic crisis and said the one-day conference was among his final duties before he steps down on Saturday. Lee Willett, head of the maritime studies program at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based military think tank, said that as routes open up, warships from nations seeking to defend claims to possible energy resources are will follow. "Having lots of warships, from lots of nations who have lots of competing claims on territory that may lend itself to a rather tense situation," Willett said. "We may see that flash points come to pass there more readily than elsewhere in the world ." Russia and Canada have already traded verbal shots over each other's intentions in the Arctic. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said he'll firm up control of the disputed Northwest Passage, while Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seeks to lay claim to Arctic territory equivalent to the size of France. This is not an issue that has gotten much attention, especially in national security circles, where most of us focus on more traditional military concerns. It's something we'll be keeping a close eye on at the Atlantic Council.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

1/21

HS TOC

Fruity Pebbles (2/3)

Escalates to nuclear conflict with Russia Wallace & Staples 10 (Michael Wallace, Professor Emeritus of the University of British Columbia; Steven Staples, President of the Rideau Institute; Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons: a task long overdue, Canadian Pugwash Group, Rideau Institute, March 2010, http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf) the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition. Russian President Medvedev has announced the creation of a special military force to defend Arctic claims. Last year Russian General Vladimir Shamanov declared that Russian troops would step up training for Arctic combat, and that Russias submarine fleet would increase its operational radius.55
The fact is,
Recently, two Russian attack submarines were spotted off the U.S. east coast for the first time in 15 years.56 In January 2009, on the eve of Obamas inauguration, President Bush issued a National Security Presidential Directive on Arctic Regional Policy. It affirmed as a priority the preservation of U.S. military vessel and aircraft mobility and transit throughout the Arctic, including the Northwest Passage, and foresaw greater capabilities to protect U.S. borders in the Arctic.57 The Bush administrations disastrous eight years in office, particularly its decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty and deploy missile defence interceptors and a radar station in Eastern Europe, have greatly contributed to the instability we are seeing today, even though the Obama administration has scaled back the planned deployments. The Arctic has figured in this renewed interest in Cold War weapons systems, particularly the upgrading of the Thule Ballistic Missile Early Warning System radar in Northern Greenland for ballistic missile defence. The Canadian government, as well, has put forward new military capabilities to protect Canadian sovereignty claims in the Arctic, including proposed ice-capable ships, a northern

military training base and a deep-water port. Earlier this year Denmark released an all-party defence position paper that suggests the country should create a dedicated Arctic military contingent that draws on army, navy and air force assets with shipbased helicopters able to drop troops anywhere.58 Danish fighter planes would be tasked to patrol Greenlandic airspace. Last year Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. In March, that country held a major Arctic military practice involving 7,000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs.59 The manoeuvres prompted a protest from Russia which objected again in June after Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the Second World War. About 12,000 troops, 50 aircraft and several warships were involved.60 Jayantha Dhanapala, President of Pugwash and former UN under-secretary for disarmament affairs, summarized the

the United States and the Russian Federation, which together own 95 per cent of the nuclear weapons in the world converge on the Arctic and have competing claims. These claims, together with those of other allied NATO countries Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway could, if unresolved, lead to conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons .61 Many will no doubt argue that this is excessively alarmist, but no circumstance in which nuclear powers find themselves in military confrontation can be taken lightly. The current geosituation bluntly: From those in the international peace and security sector, deep concerns are being expressed over the fact that two nuclear weapon states political threat level is nebulous and low for now, according to Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary, [the] issue is the uncertainty as Arctic states and non-Arctic states begin to recognize the geopolitical/economic significance of the Arctic because of climate change. 62

Escalation occurs within minutes and wipes out the species Helfand and Pastore 9 both have doctorates (MD) past presidents of national PSR, co-authored a compelling op-ed on nuclear weapons that recently appeared in the Providence Journal [John, Ira Physicians for Social Responsibility. US-Russia Nuclear War is Still a Threat www.projo.com, 3/31/9 //GBS-JV] Since the end of the Cold War, many have acted as though the danger of nuclear war has ended. It has not. There remain in the world more than 20,000 nuclear weapons. Alarmingly, more than 2,000 of these weapons in the U.S. and Russian arsenals remain on ready-alert status, commonly known as hair-trigger alert. They can be fired within five minutes and reach targets in the other country 30 minutes later. Just one of these weapons can destroy a city. A war involving a substantial number would cause devastation on a scale unprecedented in human history. A study conducted by Physicians for Social Responsibility in 2002 showed that if only 500 of the Russian weapons on high alert exploded over our cities, 100 million Americans would die in the first 30 minutes. An attack of this magnitude also would destroy the entire economic, communications and transportation infrastructure on which we all depend. Those who survived the initial attack would inhabit a nightmare landscape with huge swaths of the country blanketed with radioactive fallout and epidemic diseases rampant.
They would have no food, no fuel, no electricity, no medicine, and certainly no organized health care. In the following months it is likely the vast majority of the U.S. population would die. Recent studies by the eminent climatologists Toon and Robock have shown that such a war

would have a huge and immediate impact on climate world wide. If all of the warheads in the U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals were drawn into the conflict, the firestorms they caused would loft 180 million tons of soot and debris into the upper atmosphere blotting out the sun. Temperatures across the globe would fall an average of 18 degrees Fahrenheit to levels not seen on earth since the depth of the last ice age, 18,000 years ago. Agriculture would stop, eco-systems would collapse, and many species, including perhaps our own, would become extinct.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

2/21

HS TOC

Fruity Pebbles (3/3)

Probability and Timeframe- Tensions now Macalister 11 [Terry, Guardian UK, Jul 6, US and Russia stir up political tensions over Arctic, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/06/usrussia-political-tensions-arctic] The message was clear: the

US is putting itself at the centre of the debate about the future of the far north at a time when a new oil and mineral "cold rush" is under way as global warming makes extraction more easy. And being the US, the soft diplomacy was backed up with a bit of symbolic hardware . A few weeks earlier two nuclear-powered submarines were
sent to patrol 150 miles north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Meanwhile Russia also on the eight-nation council was happy to push off the agenda any idea that countries such as China could gain observer status. The US navy move comes as Russia is said to have increased missile

testing in the region and Norway has moved its main military base to the far north. Meanwhile China has started to woo countries such as Greenland, which are rich in rare earth minerals needed for mobile phones and other hi-tech equipment. The competing commercial interests in the Arctic are complicated by the lack of a comprehensive agreement on who owns what. Many countries are in the process of submitting competing land claims to the UN as part of its Law of the Sea Convention a treaty
as yet unsigned by the US. Canada and others were also disturbed when Artur Chilingarov, a veteran Russian polar explorer, placed a flag on the Arctic seabed in 2007. He told reporters his mission was to show the Arctic was Russian, adding: "We must prove the north pole is an extension of the Russian landmass." Canada took exception to the Russian move, seeing it as provocative , but Moscow dismissed the furore, insisting it was a theatrical gesture by a scientist hired by private companies to make the descent. But it

is telling that the following year Chilingarov also a member of the state parliament was awarded a new title, Hero of the Russian Federation. Concerns about a new cold war if not just a cold rush have led academics such as Rob Huebert, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, to warn in a recent paper prepared for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute that "an arms race may be beginning". Huebert says he has heard the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, talking of the need to establish a "zone of peace" in the Arctic but sees contrary actions as well. "Not withstanding the public statements of peace and co-operation in the Arctic issued by the Arctic states, The strategic value of the region is growing. As this value grows, each state will attach a greater value to their own national interests in the region. The Arctic states may be talking co-operation, but they are preparing for conflict." Meanwhile
Admiral James Stavridis, Nato's supreme allied commander in Europe, in a foreword to a recent Whitehall Ppaper published by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, argued: "For now, the disputes in the north have been dealt with peacefully,

but climate change could alter the equilibrium over the coming years in the race of temptation for exploitation of more readily accessible natural resources."

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

3/21

HS TOC

Cocoa Puffs (1/6)

Natural outgassing means the ocean is already too warm to sustain frozen methane hydrates wide-scale melting is inevitable and underway Nissen 11 (John Nissen, Chairman, Arctic Methane Emergency Working Group, geoengineering expert; other contributors & members: Peter
Wadhams, Professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, Stephen Salter, Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design at Edinburgh University, Dr. Brian Orr, former Principal Scientific Officer, Department of the Environment, Peter Carter, Sam Carana, Anthony Cook, Gary Houser, Jon Hughes, and Graham Ennis; Arctic Methane Alert, December 2011,http://www.vmine.net/scienceinparliament/specials/12.pdf)

Until now, governments have been told that climate change is a long-term problem. They have been trying to do their best for their citizens by pursuing strategies for emissions reductions over decades, to prevent global warming exceeding a safe limit. But the situation has dramatically changed. We now face a problem requiring emergency action, to stop the point of no return being reached. The loss of Arctic sea-ice in September is now considered to be that point, as it will set off a chain reaction of events that cannot be halted. The very rapid rise in greenhouse gases, and the near collapse of the protective cooling of the Arctic sea ice, is unprecedented in the past 2.5 million years. The last time there was explosive growth of methane, of the amount we are liable to encounter as the sea ice retreats, was in the PETM around 55 million years ago the last major extinction event . Warnings about the catastrophic impacts of a methane release from the Arctic have been circulating for many years. Former US Department Geologist John Atcheson wrote in 2004: A temperature increase of merely a few degrees would cause these gases to volatilize and burp into the atmosphere Once triggered this cycle could result in runaway global warming, the likes of which even the most pessimistic doomsayers arent talking about [1] NASA scientist Jay Zwally said in 2007 the rate of collapse indicated an ice-free summer by 2012. The Copenhagen Diagnosis (2009) states: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The PIOMAS findings confirm this acceleration and probability that collapse is now occurring at an exponential rather than linear rate, pointing to an Arctic ice-free during the summer being reached sooner (2013-18) rather than later (2100) (p5). The inevitability of an ice-free Arctic releasing vast quantities of methane is widely recognised, as stated by Nobel Laureate, Steven Chu [2]. Failure to make ready to counteract the Arctic methane threat would amount to a failure of duty of care that governments have for their citizens [3]: The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or
minimise the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures. It is against this background we urge you to read this report and consider its contents. Dr. Igor Semiletov Dr. Igor Semiletov, crew leader of a recently returned Arctic methane research expedition, was interviewed on Oct 20 in Vladivostok, Russia, by an associate of a U.S.-based documentary team. Here are some excerpts, released by kind permission of 590 Films (www.590films.org/methane.html) Note: Dr semiletov was speaking as an individual and not reporting official findings. Scale of emissions For sure there was a sense of urgency in our preparation. It was caused by the new data, which had been gathered during the past two years and

not published yet. This data presents plenty of reason to have concern. In our article for Science magazine in 2010, we estimated the scale of methane emission from this region to be 8 million tons ...... But the more recent data shows that the emissions from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) are much bigger. There are actually huge plumes of bubbles emitting from the sea bottom. Using the equipment available on this voyage four geophysical methods, seismic profiling on different frequencies, hydro-acoustics on three frequencies, we measured these fountains of bubbles and the methane concentration in the air ....That was highly precise measuring. We conducted 115 stationary checkpoints and discovered fields of fantastic scale I think of a scale not seen before in the ocean. Some fountains of methane were a kilometre and more in diameter. Emissions into the atmosphere were also 100 times higher than normal what would be considered sustainable levels. Such emissions would unavoidably cause impacts on climate change the only question concerns the scale, kinetics, and speed of the emissions . Unprecedented warming The international climate community is now beginning to seriously examine this mechanism of rapid methane emissions as a possible cause of fast climate changes on the Earth. I agree with the opinion of most climate experts working in the Arctic. We see reduction of ice cover. It is obvious not only from satellites, but we also can see it directly while we are working there In 2007, we were on a fairly small ship Victor Buinitzki and reached 82 degrees latitude, and the surface temperature was plus 3C (3C above freezing). This is unprecedented warming, and it is a fact. Thaw feedback Such warming will have an unavoidable impact on hydrates, and we know how. When ice has gone, there are stronger winds and waves and a deeper mixing of water which causes the comparatively warm upper layer to mix with water at deeper levels. There are already studies which confirm that in some areas, bottom temperature in summer is 2 to 3
degrees above zero celsius (freezing).This means that when we determine average temperature of the year, it is already somewhere close to zero degrees celsius (the freezing / thaw point). And in some regions for instance near the mouth of the great Siberian rivers like Lena, that warming can play a very serious role. As this warming spreads to a larger area, the more that shelf-based permafrost will thaw. The impact from global warming on hydrates will cause more winds and warming of surface waters. This will also interact with deeper waters and lead to the increasing of summer temperature to positive (above freezing).

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

4/21

HS TOC

Cocoa Puffs (2/6)

Only extraction solves Cohen 10 MBA, B.Sc., (Chem. Eng.) PR.Eng. Chief Executive Officer of Northern Orion Resources Senior Vice President of Miramar Mining Corporation Chairman of Enterprise Energy Resources Ltd. (Dave, Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA (ASPO-USA), M.A. Theoretical Linguistics, Methane Hydrates, Energy Bulletin, 2-11-2010, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51517)
Well, of course, this makes sense. We

wouldn't want to inadvertently disturb a big patch of methane hydrates, which might lead to the release of a shitload of gas into the water column, which would eventually lead to its bubbling out of the sea and into the atmosphere . You see, if the methane in ocean floor hydrates gets loose, that's much, much worse than if we successfully capture it, pipe it somewhere and burn it. In this latter case, we only get the carbon emissions from burning the "pure" natural gas (CH4), not the full-blown greenhouse effects of unadulterated methane in the atmosphere, which converts to CO2 over time there it's 25 times more potent per molecule [as a greenhouse gas] than carbon dioxide on a 100-year basis. Methane hydrates are stable under low temperatures and high pressures. So, I guess you could say that by capturing & burning the natural gas in ocean floor hydrates, we would be actually saving the planet from the future ruin we might incur if the deep oceans were to warm sufficientlydue to the burning of fossil fuels like natural gas to cause natural degassing .

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

5/21

HS TOC

Cocoa Puffs (3/6)

And, new extraction technology is safe beginning production as soon as possible is the only way to avoid massive methane release Rennie 11 editor in chief of Scientific American, adjunct instructor in the graduate Science, Health and Environmental Reporting Program recipient of the Sagan Award for Public Understanding of Science, bestowed by the Council of
Scientific Society Presidents awarded Navigator Award for distinguished service in support of national science and technology policy (John Rennie, Energy from Methane Hydrates: Better to Burn Out than Fade Away, The Gleaming Retort, 6-12011,http://blogs.plos.org/retort/2011/06/01/energy-from-methane-hydrates-better-to-burn-out-than-fade-away/)

Estimates of how much methane is tied up in hydrates globally vary widely but are on the order of 1,000,000 trillion cubic feet. Most of that is flatly unattainable , explains Ray Boswell, the methane hydrates technology manager for the U.S. Department of Energys National Energy Technology Laboratory. Nevertheless , in 2010, he and Timothy S. Collett, a research geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, estimated that even if gas producers restricted themselves to the most workable, sandy formations, the amount of recoverable methane in hydrates could be around 10,000 trillion cubic feet. That quantity compares favorably to the roughly 16,200 trillion cubic feet that the M.I.T. Energy Initiatives 2010 Future of Natural Gas report lists as recoverable from all of the worlds remaining conventional sources . That much natural gas ought to be irresistible if it can be captured safely and economically . No one yet knows whether it really can but the signs are at least currently promising. Originally, people thought that gas companies might need to mine the hydrates by dredging the bottom of the ocean for them. That perception blunted interest in the hydrates as an energy source for years because such an approach would have been costly and inefficient, and raised the specter of disrupted hydrate formations accidentally releasing great clouds of methanethe last thing that our greenhouse gas-beset planet would need right now. Fortunately, a vastly better way has come to light: preliminary studies suggest that wells dug into very deep sandy hydrate formations can simply pump methane and water to the surface. The opportunities for methane leakage are minimal because the hydrates are so deeply sealed beneath other sediments and because they spontaneously refreeze as soon as the pumping stops. The potential for an uncontrollable wellhead blowout like the one that destroyed the Deepwater Horizon and polluted the Gulf Coast thus appears to be impossible. Researchers are also looking into another way of tapping the hydrates that involves injecting carbon dioxide into them. The carbon dioxide can displace the trapped methane in the hydrates and release it for collection. An additional advantage of this approach would be that it would sequester the CO2 beneath the seafloor, which could only help further in attempts to curtail climate change from industrial emissions
. (See my article for more details on both these pumping approaches.) But of course, in the real world, a capability to use methane hydrates as a source of natural gas wont matter unless it can do so cost-competitively. And right now, gas companies and politicians are most keenly excited about the relatively new prospect of using horizontal drilling and controversial fracking techniques to capture the natural gas inside oil shale formations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that adding the identified shale gas resources to other gas resources increases total world technically recoverable gas resources by over 40 percent to 22,600 trillion cubic feet. It may be tough for methane hydrates, as a new and unorthodox gas resource that may not be able to reach a significant commercial scale for 10 to 15 more years, to make much headway against that competition. Then again, maybe not. Certain factors might be more advantageous to methane hydrate development than one would think. The first is that nations like Japan, which now have huge and expensive industrial energy costs, have extraordinary incentives to use the methane hydrates off their coasts. Japan has already announced that it hopes to begin some level of methane production from its Nankai Trough hydrates by 2018. So whether or not methane hydrates seem to make much economic sense here in the U.S., for example, other countries will be pushing the technology ahead regardless. Energy companies may also see reasons to develop methane hydrates based on synergies with their other interests. In my interview with Timothy Collett of the U.S. Geological Survey, he pointed out that conventional

if CO2 sequestration into hydrates proves feasible, Collett says, gas companies could use waste CO2 from their conventional gas wells to drive further methane production from the hydrates. He also pointed out that oil companies working Alaskas North Slope might find that developing methane hydrates could help them to maintain oil production. As oilfields there run dry, the companies now keep wells alive by pumping gas down into the reservoirs to maintain pressure. The methane from hydrates could become a handy local source of gas for recharging the wells: instead of distributing the methane as fuel, the companies could use it to keep their production of more valuable oil going. (That incentive would surely be a mixed blessing in the eyes of climate hawks looking to move the global economy away from production and use of oil and coal. Still, perhaps it is still of value as a lesser-of-twonatural gas comes out of the ground carrying a lot of CO2. (For example, the natural gas emerging from Alaskas North Slope wells is about 10 percent CO2 [pdf].) By law, natural gas producers must remove that CO2 before they can store or transport their product but they cannot release it into the air. Yet

evils transitional step toward an energy infrastructure in which natural gas can more easily substitute for oil.) It is also not yet a foregone conclusion that natural gas production from oil shales has a clear way forward. Though I am personally pessimistic about the odds of environmental or public health concerns standing in the way of the moneyed energy interests in this case, the huge and unsettled controversies about whether fracking is safe might yet trip up oil shale development. If so,

. Burning natural gas for energy is more appealing than using oil or coal because it produces less CO2 and other particulatesbut on a rapidly growing global industrial scale, it still will contribute a lot. The best result for the environment would be for natural gas to grow as a transitional energy source while solar, wind and other green alternatives become still less expensive and more practical. (And making that transition may be a challenge in itself once natural gas is still more entrenched.) Whether methane hydrates can or will play a part in that strategy remains to be seen. But methane hydrates are not just a resource . They remain, more darkly, one of the veiled menaces whose existence should
the environmental desirability to find good, affordable sources of natural gas will still exist, which could help sustain interest in methane hydrates. Expanded natural gas development is not ideal from a climate change perspective urge action on the climate. The deep hydrate formations that developers might tap seem reasonably secure against big unwanted releases of methanebut the more shallow deposits on parts of the seafloor and under the Siberian and North American

If global temperatures continue to rise, and if the oceans (which absorb most of the trapped greenhouse-effect heat) rise in temperature by a few degrees Celsius, then those more exposed methane hydrates will begin to decompose on their own. How much methane they could abruptly burp into the atmosphere is uncertain, and may depend on the precise circumstances. But any additional atmospheric methane will be unwanted and could greatly accelerate greenhouse effects for a few decades, further complicating any efforts to adapt to the new climate. Maybe Neil Youngs lyric Its better to burn out than fade away captures the odd paradox of methane hydrates best. Better to burn some of their methane in the short run, and suffer a CO2-driven aggravation of greenhouse problems en route to a more sustainable energy solution, than to continue with the energy status quo and wait for melting hydrates to worsen the climate problem for us.
permafrosts are not.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

6/21

HS TOC

Cocoa Puffs (4/6)

Methane release causes extinction outweighs nuclear war Ryskin 3 Ph.D. Chemical Engineering California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA Engineer-Physicist St. Petersburg Polytechnic Institute, St.
Petersburg, Russia Fluid dynamics; statistical physics; geophysics Associate Professor of Chemical and Biological Engineering (Gregory, Department of Chemical Engineering, Northwestern University, Methane-driven oceanic eruptions and mass extinctions, Geology, 31(9), September 2003, http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/methaneGeology.pdf)
METASTABILITY AND ERUPTION A liquid subject to gravity and completely or partially saturated with dissolved gas is, thermodynamically, in a metastable state. Consider for clarity the case when the concentration of the dissolved gas is only slightly below saturation throughout, and thus increases downward in accordance with Henrys law. Then locally there is no tendency for the dissolved gas to exsolve (to form bubbles), in spite of the fact that nuclei are abundant in seawater. (Exsolution would lead to a slight increase in free energy: below saturation, the chemical potential of the gas species is lower in solution than in the free gas phase.) At the same time, the free energy of the system as a whole would be greatly reduced if most of the dissolved gas were to somehow escape from solution and collect above the liquid. (This free energy reduction is due to the fast decrease of the chemical potential of gas with a drop in pressure.) Thus, the system is in a metastable state, albeit an unusual one. Strictly speaking, this state is not an equilibrium one even locally: the increase of the solute concentration with depth causes a diffusion flux directed upward, which, given sufficient time, could bring the system into the above state of minimum

A very fast transition from this metastable state can be triggered by disturbances that displace fluid a finite distance in the vertical direction. Such disturbances may result from an earthquake, a seafloor volcano, convection currents due to geothermal heating, or an internal gravity wave. From the initial eruption site, hydrodynamic disturbances propagate in all directions (via turbulent entrainment and/or internal gravity waves), triggering eruptions at other sites. Similarly to transitions from other metastable states (e.g., boiling of a superheated liquid), the eruption should spread quickly throughout the region of the ocean where the water column is saturated, or partially saturated, with gas. In spite of the low solubility of methane in seawater, the total possible increase in the buoyancy of the parcel can be large. A rather similar process is responsible for the most violent, explosive volcanic eruptions( The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region boils over, ejecting a large amount of methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land. Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions 2 and conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide. Firestorms carry smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years (Turco et al., 1991); the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism. Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is difficult to predict (Turco et al., 1991; Pierrehumbert, 2002). Upon release of a significant portion of the dissolved methane, the ocean settles down, and the entire sequence of events (i.e., development of anoxia, accumulation of dissolved methane, the metastable state, eruption) begins anew. No external cause is required to bring about a methane-driven eruptionits mechanism is self-contained, and implies that eruptions are likely to occur repeatedly at the same location. B
free energy. However, the continuous supply of methane by the rising bubbles from the seafloor ensures that the concentration profile will remain nonuniform, slowly approaching the saturation one. Even if that supply were to cease, the diffusion time scales are so long that this path toward the global energy minimum can be ignored. Consider a parcel of fluid that is displaced upward, and is now subject to lower hydrostatic pressure, to which corresponds a lower solubility value. As a result, the fluid in the parcel is now supersaturated with the dissolved gas, which must begin to exsolve, forming tiny gas bubbles. (If the fluid in its original position was only partially saturated, exsolution will begin after the parcel has risen through some significant distance, so in this case the initial disturbance must be sufficiently large.) The volume of the ascending parcel of fluid increases due to the formation of bubbles, making it more buoyant and accelerating its rise; this leads to further reduction in the ambient pressure, further exsolution of gas, and further increase in the volume of the parcel. This self-accelerating motion entrains the surrounding fluid; exsolution of the gas in the latter reinforces the motion. The result is a violent eruption (Kling et al., 1987; Zhang, 1996). Consider a parcel that started its rise at 4 km depth, where solubility of methane is ;4.3 3 1023. Then, if the parcel had a volume of 18 cm3 (1 mol of water) and was saturated with methane, it methane, is 126 cm3. That is, the volume of the parcel has increased by a factor of seven. Concurrent exsolution of other dissolved gases (e.g., carbon dioxide CO2, hydrogen sulfide H2S) will add to the effect. called Plinian), such as eruptions of Mount Vesuvius in A.D. 79 or Mount St. Helens in 1980. These eruptions are driven by exsolution of gases (primarily water vapor) dissolved in the liquid magma. In Lake Nyos (Cameroon), CO2 of magmatic origin enters the water column from the bottom, at a depth of ;200 m. In 1986, the lake erupted, creating a gas-water fountain ;120 m in height (Zhang, 1996), and releasing a lethal cloud of CO2. A water surge washed up the shore to a height of ;25 m. The eruption continued for several hours (Kling et al., 1987). OCEANIC ERUPTION AS A CAUSE OF MASS EXTINCTION

contained 4.3 3 1023 mol of dissolved methane. By the time this parcel has risen to the surface, essentially all the methane in the parcel has exsolved (solubility is ;2 3 1025 at the surface). At the surface conditions (T 25 8C, P 5 1 bar), 1 mol of any gas occupies 25 3 103 cm3, so the total volume of methane in the parcel is ;108 cm3, and the volume of the parcel, which now contains a mist of water droplets in gaseous

ecause

methane is isotopically light, its fast release must result in a negative carbon isotope excursion in the geological record. Knowing the magnitude of the excursion, one can estimate the amount of methane that could have produced it. Such calculations (prompted by the methane-hydrate-dissociation model, but equally applicable here) have been performed for several global events in the geological record; the results range from ;1018 to 1019 g of released methane (e.g., Katz et al., 1999; Kennedy et al., 2001; de Wit et al., 2002). These are very large amounts: the total carbon content of todays terrestrial biomass is ;2 3 1018 g. Nevertheless, relatively small regions of the deep ocean could contain such amounts of dissolved methane; e.g., the Black Sea alone (volume ;0.4 3 1023 of the ocean total; maximum depth only 2.2 km) could hold, at saturation, ;0.5 3 1018 g. A similar region of the deep ocean could

). Released in a geological instant (weeks, perhaps) , 1018 to 1019 g of methane could destroy the terrestrial life almost entirely. Combustion and explosion of 0.75 3 1019 g of methane would liberate energy equivalent to 108 Mt of TNT,; 10,000 times greater than the worlds stockpile of nuclear weapons, implicated in the nuclear winter scenario (Turco et al., 1991).
contain much more (the amount grows quadratically with depth3

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

7/21

HS TOC

Cocoa Puffs (5/6)

Any risk of methane release controls your impact calculus its the most probable and only empirical extinction event, and accesses an invisible threshold Dorritie 7 (Dan Dorritie, paleontologist, studies mass extinction events, M.A. Geology, University of CaliforniaDavis, Preface,Killer in our Midst,
2007, http://www.killerinourmidst.com/) Deep beneath the surface of the sea, buried in the oxygen-depleted muds that have accumulated over the ages on the underwater margins of the continents, lies a vast store of natural gas that probably well exceeds, in its carbon equivalence, the entire supply of all other oil, gas, and coal on the planet. Most of this immense store of natural gas, largely comprised of methane, lies trapped in icy cages called hydrates. Below these hydrates is a huge quantity of methane as free gas bubbles, blocked from release by the hydrate, and temperature and pressure conditions above. Still more methane, as hydrate, is found in the permanently frozen (permafrost) regions that surround the poles. Methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, the gas which is currently warming our globe, even though methane remains in the atmosphere for a much shorter time. If released abruptly, seafloor

methane has the potential to deliver a stunning jolt of heat to the planet's already increasing temperatures. Even if released more gradually, seafloor methane will inevitably compound the problem of global warming. But abruptly or gradually, as we warm the planet by our dumping of carbon dioixde into the atmosphere, the seafloor will also warm, and its methane will inevitably be released. This book is about the release of that methane, and, in particular, about the possibility of methane catastrophe. Methane catastrophes have occurred several times in Earth's history, and when they have occurred, they have sometimes caused abrupt changes in the history of life, and at least one significant extinction. That extinction, at the end of the Permian Period 250 million years ago, is the greatest in the history of life. More than 90% of the then-existing species perished, and the course of life on Earth was altered forever. If a methane catastrophe were to happen in the near future, it is likely that not only would a considerable percentage of existing plants and animals be killed off, but a large percentage of the human population as well, as a result of the climate change and significantly more hostile environmental conditions. Yet we may well be heading toward such a catastrophe, produced by our warming of the planet. Just how rapidly seafloor methane will be released depends on numerous factors that are quite difficult to assess. It is possible that seafloor methane will be released so slowly that it will only have a relatively minor warming effect on Earth's climate. On the other hand, because the coming methane release will be the result of our warming of the planet via the burning of fossil and other acrbon fuels, it could happen much more quickly. Indeed, it seems that we are currently pumping the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere at a much faster -- perhaps tens to hundreds of times faster -- rate than has ever before naturally occurred in the last half billion years or so of the Earth's history. The catastrophic warming we are causing is -- to the best of our knowledge -- unprecedented since the early days of our planet, billions of years ago. Such warming could well lead to methane catastrophe. The onset of a methane catastrophe would be abrupt because it

could be initiated by a major submarine landslide, which can happen in a matter of days or even hours, or by the venting of vast quantities of seafloor methane over a period of decades. These events can take place in what is essentially a geological eyeblink. Additional slumping and/or venting can continue for centuries to millennia. The amount of methane that can be released is indeed massive. Estimates of the amount of seafloor methane generally range from
about 5000 billion metric tons to around 20,000 billion metric tons (a metric ton is equal to 1.1 imperial tons, the standard ton used in the United States), though they usually range around 10,000 billion metric tons. This amount of methane contains about 7500 billion metric tons of carbon, vastly more than all the estimated carbon in all fossil fuels: petroleum, coal, and natural gas. There

is a simple way to put 10,000 billion metric tons of methane into perspective: it contains about ten times the amount of carbon (largely in the form of carbon dioxide) as does the entire atmosphere . Moreover, though methane entering the atmosphere is quickly oxidized, it is oxidized to carbon dioxide, so the problem of its warming ability will remain with us for thousands of years into the future. A methane catastrophe, therefore, is an abrupt surge of greenhouse gas that could rival or exceed the carbon dioxide warming of the planet. It could potentially overwhelm the natural heat regulatory system of the Earth, which operates in a much more gradual way, and on a much more protracted time scale. The quantity of methane that could be released is so massive there would be no remedial action that people would be able to take to mitigate it except in the most superficial way. Once a methane catastrophe were to begin, there would be major consequences for the planet and its inhabitants, human and other, and we would be able to do little except wait it out. Methane, in a very real sense, is the joker in the deck of global warming. As with the current increase in atmospheric carbon
dioxide, a large methane release will undoubtedly contribute to an increase in acid rain, and, through its impact on global warming, a further rise of sea level, increased desertification, increased heavy precipitation, and extreme weather events. The slowing of ocean circulation or its actual stagnation because of greater planetary warmth are also possibilities. Such a slowing would paradoxically produce a decreased transport of warm water to the coasts of northeastern North America and northernmost Europe, making for much colder winters. In addition, the destabilization of methane within seafloor sediments can send 20 meter (60 foot) high tsunamis crashing into nearby coastlines. A methane catastrophe can have other major

consequences in addition to sudden global warming. It can accelerate the slow but deadly acidification of the surface ocean (down to about 100 meters, or about 300 feet), which is now occurring as a result of the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and ocean. The methane can combine with dissolved oceanic oxygen, depleting the deeper part of the ocean (that is, the ocean below about 100 meters) of oxygen, and killing off the JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

8/21

HS TOC

Cocoa Puffs (6/6)

oxygen-using (aerobic) organisms at those depths. As acidification penetrates the deep ocean, even organisms that do not use oxygen (anaerobes) will be affected. Then there are the worst case scenarios. With the warming of the world ocean, its
chemical balance and biological composition will change. The ocean will become stratified, with mixing between its surface and the deep ocean becoming increasingly restricted. If the deep ocean becomes fully anoxic (devoid of oxygen), it will also become toxic, as the

remaining anaerobic organisms pump out the deadly gas hydrogen sulfide. In sufficient quantities, that gas could escape oceanic confinement to poison the atmosphere and, combining with the iron in the blood's hemoglobin, kill terrestrial organisms, including us.
just as bad: oxygen ions (sometimes referred to as free radicals) can inflict genetic damage to DNA, causing mutations and cancer

But the composition of the atmosphere could also change in a second way, because the amount of free oxygen depends on two things: the actual production of oxygen (by the ocean's photosynthetic plankton and terrestrial

green plants) and the delivery of large amounts of carbon (as part of a "rain" of organic debris from organisms closer to the surface) to the ocean's bottom. This carbon, if not removed from the global carbon cycle by sinking and eventual burial in the ocean floor, will combine with oxygen and lower its concentration in the atmosphere. Once oceanic anoxia kills off aerobic marine organisms (those which require oxygen to live), the natural regulatory system for carbon will be sent into a tailspin. The amount of organic debris produced in surface waters will likely be reduced, the amount that rapidly descends to the ocean floor will be reduced, and the proportion that gets decomposed on the way to the bottom will be significantly reduced. Exactly how this will play out is unclear, because certain of these changes will operate to slow the removal of carbon from the global carbon cycle (which will act to decrease the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere), while others will enhance it (increasing atmospheric oxygen). When a similar disruption of the marine ecosystem occurred at the end of the Permian, a quarter of a billion years ago, atmospheric oxygen dropped to a fraction (about 2/5ths) of its previous level. But increased oxygen could be

. We are certainly on the verge of releasing a huge amount of permafrost and seafloor methane within a very short time; we may also be on the brink of methane catastrophe. By our own actions -- by our continuing and increasing use of carbon fuels -- we are slowly but inexorably creating the conditions during which a such a methane release, catastrophic or more gradual, could occur. We probably have time to prevent a catastrophe, but there is a certain non-negligible possibility that we have already crossed -- or will shortly cross -- an invisible threshold that will render a methane catastrophe inevitable and unstoppable. Major anthropogenic global warming by carbon dioxide and possible methane catastrophe will be events more cataclysmic than any that can befall Earth, except for an impact with a giant asteroid or comet, or a stellar explosion in our neighborhood of the Milky Way. These other events, however, are quite rare and unlikely in our immediate future. Major anthropogenic global warming by carbon dioxide and possible methane catastrophe, by contrast, are highly likely and much more immediate. More importantly, unlike those other possible cataclysms, both are preventable -- probably -- if we take them seriously, begin to understand them, and -- most difficult of all -- begin to take steps to avert them. It has become fashionable to dismiss predictions of catastrophe, partly because they have become so common. Many of us have become jaded, what with one such prediction after another. We used to hear a good deal about nuclear holocaust, or nuclear winter, but as those threats seem to have faded in the public consciousness, there are others which have replaced it. We now hear of doomsday asteroids, the ozone hole, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), bird flu, global warming, and the obliteration of species. The number of threats seems to be increasing. And, actually, that number is increasing. Prior to this epoch in human history, people simply did not have the ability to impact our planet in potentially catastrophic ways. Unfortunately, we now do have that ability. The ozone hole is a simple example. Never before was humanity on the verge of destroying this gaseous umbrella which protects us (and all other organisms that live at or near the surface of the Earth) from deadly ultraviolet light.
Humanity simply didn't have that kind of power. But the advent of chloro-flouro-carbon (CFC) refrigerants gave us that ability, and the ozone layer sustained significant damage before the problem began to be addressed. Luckily, this is a problem for

the prospect of a major seafloor methane release, however, will not be addressed so easily. We currently have no technology to trap and hold large
which there is a ready solution, and by banning the production of these ozone-harming chemicals, we have begun to bring the problem under control. The problem of carbon dioxide emissions, consequent global warming, and quantities of carbon dioxide, and we are not likely to have such a technology for many decades in the future -- if indeed we ever will. Some of the excess carbon dioxide we produce is in fact currently slipping beyond our potential grasp, entering the oceans at the astounding rate of about a million metric tons (a metric ton = 1.1 standard ton) per hour, and increasing the acidity of seawater. There is, in addition, great resistance in a world economy driven and dominated by fossil fuels to shifting the energy base of that economy. Enormous corporate profits and personal fortunes, and the success of political efforts on their behalf, are also at stake. Slowing the stampede to catastrophically higher global temperatures and ocean destruction will

Even so, should we today stop spewing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, global temperatures will continue to increase for some time into the future. Despite our aversion to warnings of imminent catastrophe, our problem may be that we are not alarmed enough.
require substantial international effort.

Because of the delayed consequences of our dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the major effects of global warming will

only be starting just as the world supply of oil is well on its way to depletion (about 2050). But already startling environmental changes -- the early, "minor" effects of global warming -- are occurring on Earth: With the exception of 1996, the years from 1995 to 2004 constitute 9 of the 10 warmest years since systematic record keeping began in 1861. The year 2005 was the warmest year since records have been kept. The next warmest years, in order, are, 1998, 2002, 2003, and 2004. Globally, glaciers have retreated, on average, almost some 15% since 1850. Glacial retreat has been recorded in Tibet, Alaska, Peru, the Alps, Kenya, Antarctica. Alaskan temperatures have risen about 2.8C (5F) in the past few decades. In the past several decades, about 40% of Arctic Ocean sea ice has disappeared. (Some researchers now believe, however, that at least part of this sea ice loss may be due to changing wind patterns over the North Pole, but these wind changes, themselves, may be due to a warming climate.) Between 1965 and 1995, the amount of melt water from the Arctic region going into the North Atlantic was about 20,000 cubic kilometers (about 4800 cubic miles), the equivalent of the fresh water in all of the Great Lakes combined (Superior, Huron, Erie, and Ontario) with the exception of Lake Michigan. Preliminary calculations indicate that an additional 18,000 cubic kilometers (4300 cubic miles) or so could shut down ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. That shutdown could occur in two decades or less, though most scientists believe it will take much longer. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, comprised of thousands of climate scientists worldwide, puts the likely slowing at about 25% by 2100. Trade winds across the equatorial Pacific have slowed because of higher humidity, and are projected to do so even more as time passes. The increase in humidity is the result of increased evaporation, traceable to global warming. This slowing of Pacific winds will also slow the ocean surface currents that the winds push along. Some scientists fear that at some point "the switch will be tripped" and nutrient-rich bottom water will no longer rise to the surface in the eastern Pacific (a "permanent El Nio" situation which did exist about three million years ago). These waters feed the plankton which feed the anchovies in one of the world's greatest fisheries. Much of the anchovy harvest is dried, ground up, and added to chicken feed, of which it is a major protein constituent. If the switch does trip, good-bye to inexpensive chicken. Upper ocean temperatures have risen between 0.5 and 1.0C (0.9 to 1.8F) since 1960. Deeper water has also warmed, but not by as much. The total amount of energy that has gone into the oceans as a consequence of global warming, however, is staggering: enough to run the state of California for 200,000 years. In addition to significant retreats of the glaciers on Greenland's margins, as of 2005 Greenland's massive ice sheet is melting at more than twice the rate it was in the previous three years. Glaciologists report that portions of the sheet which were solid ice just a few years ago are now riddled with meltwater caverns. The deep waters of the Southern Ocean (that which encircles Antarctica) have become significantly colder and less salty than they were just ten years ago. This is presumably due to the melting of Southern Ocean sea ice and parts of the Antarctic ice cap. Deep ocean waters have been previously presumed to be fairly isolated from climate warming but the data obtained from depths of four to five kilometers (more than two to three miles) now suggests otherwise. Such changes could significantly impact global ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean, which may absorb more carbon dioxide than any other region of the global ocean, as of more than twenty-five years ago ceased to absorb additional carbon dioxide. In fact, its ability to absorb carbon dioxide seems to be declining -- even as atmospheric levels of that gas are reaching ever higher levels -- most likely due to increased wind speed over that part of the global ocean. The higher wind speed in turn has been attributed to both global warming and the destruction of the Antarctic ozone layer. Because oceans eventually absorb most of the carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere, the declining ability of the Southern Ocean to absorb carbon dioxide is a particularly ominous development. Huge expanses of floating ice around Antarctica have collapsed into fragments in just weeks, after existing for tens of thousands of years. In addition, the ice that currently covers West Antarctica, known as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which was quite recently (as of 2001) judged by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as unlikely to collapse before the end of this century, or even for the next millennium, may now be starting to disintegrate, according to the head of the British Antarctic Survey. If this ice sheet does collapse, global sea level will rise by about 5 meters (16 feet). While global daytime temperatures, on average, increased only about 0.33C (0.6F) between 1979 and 2003, nighttime temperatures have risen more than 1C (1.8F). These environmental changes have had significant biological effects: In the eastern North Atlantic, warm-water phytoplankton (marine organisms that photosynthesize, produce oxygen, and constitute the bottom of the food chain) has moved north 1000 km (600 miles) over the past 40 years. In 2004, almost a quarter of a million breeding pairs of seabirds in islands north of Scotland failed to produce more than a few dozen offspring. Their reproductive failure is most likely due to the North Atlantic phytoplankton changes, and the consequent breakdown of the marine food chain. Many of the affected birds migrate back and forth between the Scottish islands and areas around the Southern Ocean (off Antarctica) over the course of the year. Starved in the north, they will never make it back to the south. Similar changes have been observed off the West Coast of the United States in 2005. Krill, small (about 5 cm/2 inches in length), shrimplike creatures which are a main food source for seals, whales, and penguins in the Southern Ocean, have declined in places to just 20% of their previous number in just 30 years. Grass now survives the winter in places on the Antarctic Peninsula, the warmest part of that frigid continent. When grass last was able to survive Antarctic winters is unknown. In the 17 year period from 1987 to 2003, the number and size of major wildfires in the western U. S. has increased dramatically. Compared to the 17 year period stretching from 1970 to 1986, the number of major wildfires has increased fourfold, and the area burned by major fires has increased sixfold. All of the presumed causes for this increase -- the earlier melting of snow, increased summer temperatures, an extended fire season, and an increase in the area of high-altitude forests which is vulnerable to such fires -- can be

With the warming, the release of methane has begun to follow: The Western Siberian Peat Bog, comprising an area of a million square kilometers (about 385,000 square miles, roughly the combined size of France and Germany), has begun to melt. This area is underlain by permafrost (permanently frozen ground that has existed since the Ice Age) perhaps a kilometer (about 3000 feet) deep. The permafrost contains an enormous amount of methane hydrate, possibly as much as a quarter of the total inventory of continental methane. As this permafrost warms and melts -- an irreversible process -- methane is released. This melting may add a quantity of methane to the atmosphere roughly equivalent to that released by all other natural and agricultural sources, increasing global warming by 10 to 25%. Already, methane emissions from certain areas of Siberian permafrost is proceeding much more rapidly than previously estimated. These extensive areas, characterized by Ice Age deposits of wind-blown dust (called loess) with high carbon and very high ice (50 to 90%) contents, are bubbling out methane at a rate five times higher than earlier presumed . Overall, these "yedoma" regions are contributing an additional 10 to 63% the total rate of methane release from the wetlands of the north. These are only the early effects, ripples from the storm which is to come. Remedial action is still possible, but the likelihood of catastrophe becomes more certain with each passing year.
traced to global warming. The small increase in global nighttime temperatures indicated above (1C/1.8F), is sufficient to have reduced the biomass (the total mass of roots, stems, leaves, and grain) of rice, humankind's most important crop, by 10%. Rice is the primary foodstuff for more than half of the population of the world.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

9/21

HS TOC First is the arctic

Apple Jacks (1/9)

Lack of bandwidth is constraining arctic gas exploration and production NSR 11 (Northern Sky Research, Industry Briefing, The Digital Oilfield: Rising Bandwidth Demand, Consolidation and the HTS Puzzle, 5-242011, http://www.nsr.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=444&catid=102&Itemid=175)

Recent discoveries in remote areas such as the Arctic are pushing the Oil & Gas (O&G) sector further away from terrestrial service, which drives satellite connectivity in the digital oilfield. NSR heard three distinct messages at the Global VSAT Forums (GVF) 4th Annual Oil and Gas Communications Europe 2011 conference in Aberdeen on 17 18th May. The conference offered an opportunity to hear firsthand accounts of three clear trends affecting this market: O&G industry bandwidth needs are ever increasing, consolidation on the satellite service side has opened previously closed doors to smaller providers, and there are concerns over High Throughput Satellite (HTS) Ka-Band offerings. The O&G market certainly remains skeptical of the value that upcoming HTS Ka-band services can bring to the exploration, production and distribution segments. Today, these new and emerging HTS services lack clear messages on stabilized or enterprise-grade platforms, do not currently have key O&G areas covered, and the market has overarching concerns over the interoperability of the regional jigsaw puzzle of HTS Ka-band capacity. As Inmarsat is still determining the content of its Global XPress offering, O&G providers and end-users are in a wait-and-see mode before they make large purchasing decisions to assess the overall benefits and reliability of HTS capacity to their operations (and to see if Ku-band pricing will lower as a result.) NSR believes the O&G industry will seek Ku/Ka-band
solutions to mitigate concerns over patchy HTS Ka-band services; meanwhile, HTS capacity providers will need to develop roaming capabilities with each other to be successful in this marketplace. While the HTS value-proposition seems uncertain, NSR highlighted the ever increasing

bandwidth needs of the offshore services industry it has studied in its recently released Oil and Gas via Satellite study, and participants and speakers alike overwhelmingly confirmed this trend. O
ne contractor even stated that bandwidth needs that range in the half megabit per second range for a specific segment today could easily increase four-fold in the coming years. Amidst the wait for HTS services, and bandwidth demand increases, the industry is slowly feeling the effects of the largest merger to date on the satellite services side; that of CapRock, Schlumberger GCS and Core180 into Harris Corporation. Will bigger be better for all? was the question posed by many attendees. One smaller regional player offered the thought that this merger has a silver lining: The merger has opened a previously closed door to smaller providers to offer the critical redundant link infrastructure vital to O&G operations. Where O&G companies used to select a primary system from Schlumberger and a back-up from CapRock, now they must look to new, smaller providers to provide critical back-up infrastructure to support their operations.

if it is clear that bandwidth needs keep rising in the sector. As regional players face ever-increasing competition from larger service providers, supporting redundant links could be the door that opens new revenue streams as O&G
Although consolidation is still occurring, these complementary regional providers could be appealing as separate companies, rather than a large global service provider. Bottom Line The GVFs Oil & Gas Europe conference gave a sense that there are a lot of unanswered questions about HTS, even

end-users push further into the frontiers of connectivity.

New satellite communications capability is key Jarrold 8 (Martin Jarrold, Chief of International Program Development, Global VSAT Forum, Dynamics in the Oil & Gas Patch, Sat Magazine,
March 2008, http://www.satmagazine.com/cgi-bin/display_article.cgi?number=724995289) As a

supplier of essential services to the oil & gas industry , the satellite communications sector are acutely aware of the fact essential to mission-critical operational success in the oil & gas patch. Satellite-based communications, together with satellite-terrestrial hybrid solutions, and terrestrial platforms, play a vital role in oil & gas. They provide essential connectivity and access to vital applications, often in remote geographic environments and challenging climatic conditions. The search for new reserves of oil & gas necessitates migrating to harder-to-reach offshore locations (most recently in the Arctic Ocean latitudes). Additionally, older production fields are the target of innovative drilling and pumping techniques designed to extract the last drop of oil or cubic meter of gas, making the mission-criticality of ICTs (Information and Communication Technology) even more evident. Thus, satellite will be an important, but not exclusive, part of the bigger picture at a new GVF event focused on the oil & gas exploration and production (E & P) environment. Previously, GVF, in partnership with UK-EMP, has organized two successful and widely acclaimed Oil & Gas Communications: Middle East and North Africa conferences, held in Cairo in 2006 and 2007. Now that same partnership is directing its attention to an event that will examine in much greater detail the nature of the applications that the oil & gas industry must exploit. This is necessary to keep these forms of energy flowing from the subterranean and subsea depths of the planet.
that cost-effective and efficient means of communication are

Exploration avoids drilling accidents Adam 5 PhD in chemical engineering, science correspondent, worked at the science journal Nature (Dave science correspondent, The Guardian (UK), US in race to unlock new energy source, 4-32005,http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2005/apr/04/usnews.science) Its new project will see the drilling vessel Uncle John spend about a month in the Gulf of Mexico, where it will bore down to two of the largest expected methane hydrate deposits in the region. Scientists on the ship will collect samples for experiments

Puncture one hydrate reservoir and the giant release of gas can disrupt drilling, pierce another and getting the methane out is like sucking porridge through a straw. This unpredictable nature means energy companies traditionally view hydrates as a nuisance. This gives them a joint interest with the US government as both sides want to know where the crystals are - one to avoid them and the other to exploit them. Mr Boswell said: "We have a marriage of near-term industry interests and longer-term government interests. If they develop the ability to detect hydrates for the purpose of avoiding them, that's useful for people who want to do the exact same thing for the purpose of finding them." Devinder Mahajan, a chemist at the US department of energy's laboratory in Brookhaven, is looking for ways to encourage subsea hydrate deposits to release their methane. He has developed a
to see how the methane might be freed and transported to the surface. This is harder than it sounds. In some deposits the crystals occur in thick layers, in others they are found as smaller nuggets. pressurised tank that allows scientists to study hydrate formation. "You fill the vessel with water and sediment, put in methane gas and cool it down under high pressure. After a few hours, the hydrates form, you can actually see it. They look like ice, but they're not," he said. "This is a very important issue, tied to our future national energy security."

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

10/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (2/9)

Next is the Bering Strait Trends in the Bering Strait mean its the focal point of international trade and shipping territorial disputes lead to conflict escalation. New communication infrastructure key to check conflict. Continued unilateral Canadian belligerence skews multilateral cooperation Kraska 9 a professor of international law in Center for Naval Warfare Studies at U.S. Naval War College and a guest investigator at Marine Policy
Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. A former Oceans Policy Adviser for Director of Strategic Plans & Policy, Joint Chiefs of Staff, he was principal drafter of national security provisions of U.S. Arctic Region Policy signed by in, (James, January 2009, International Security and International Law in the Northwest Passage, www-prod.law.vanderbilt.edu/publications/...of.../download.aspx?id) Seventy percent of the globe is covered by the single, interconnected world ocean.1 Eighty percent of the worlds population lives within 200 miles of a coastline.2

Ninety percent of international trade travels by sea.3 Much of the commerce, many of the people and resources, and much of the conflict on the planet occurs in the coastal zone.4 Consequently, the diplomatic and legal framework for ocean governance is of direct concern to the maintenance of a stable world system. These figures are especially compelling for the states of North America, which are connected to the world primarily by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The harsh climate of the High North and the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean has deterred most transcontinental traffic from using the northern waters as an approach into the shores of Canada and the United States.5 While
three vast oceansthe Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctichave shielded North America in the past, in recent decades globalization has brought increasing numbers and diversity of shipping into Atlantic and Pacific ports.6 Climate change may transform the Arctic Ocean into yet a

third waterway for transcontinental traffic into North America. The result is that the northern tier will become open to the benefits and exposed to the potential costs of worldwide commerce. The greatest impact to date of the prospect of increased shipping in the North American Arctic has been the disruption of Canadas sense of security. Over the past thirty years, the annual average sea-ice extent has decreased about eight percent, or nearly
one million square kilometersan area larger than all of Norway, Sweden, and Denmark combined. The extent of sea ice has declined more dramatically in summer than the annual average, with the loss amounting to 1520 percent of late-summer ice coverage. Moreover, a consensus is building that

the melting trend is accelerating, as Arctic temperatures have increased over the last few decades. Winter temperatures in Alaska and Western Canada, for example, are 34C higher over the past fifty years, and there is an expectation that larger increases will be projected. 7 The five Global Climate Models (GCMs) utilized in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) project a decline in winter maximum extent ice over the next 100 years.8 Scientists believe these changes are one major reason for dramatic environmental events, such as the recent detachment of a sixty-six-square-kilometer giant ice shelf from Ellesmere Island, which is located about 800 kilometers from the North Pole.9 Coupled with other environmental stress, such as illegal fishing, overfishing, and pollution, there is concern that the trends in Arctic climate change may overwhelm the adaptive capacity of some Arctic ecosystems and reduce or even eliminate populations of living resources.10 The security implications of these changes could be enormous. The New York Times suggests that Arctic waters are an emerging arena of international competition in a High North version of the Great Game.11 New Arctic maritime claims, maritime boundary disputes, and international competition over the resources of the Arctic Ocean exacerbate the unease precipitated by the prospect of increased international shipping.12 These trends led Scott Borgerson to warn in Foreign Affairs last year of an impending Arctic meltdown generating conflict in the region.13 Meanwhile, the European Commission suggests that changes in the Arctic physical environment are altering the geostrategic dynamics of the region and will affect global security.14 Climate change is transforming the security dynamic in the Arctic, but does the future hold a stable and cooperative Arctic order or a competitive and volatile Arctic anarchy? The United States has been the voice of reason, and Washington has the power to shape the future. Yet those concerned about the potential for Arctic conflict suggest that climate change threatens to upend international stability or even drag nations into war. We have, after all, been here before. The
seventeenth century faced upheaval and adversity on a monumental scale: in China, the Ming dynasty suffered a violent collapse; the Ottoman Empire was engaged in a bitter struggle with the Holy League; and the Dutch Revolt pried the Low Countries from the Spanish Empire.15 The Thirty Years War dismembered Central Europe, ending in the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 and ushering into existence the modern nation-state.16

More warfare afflicted the globe during the seventeenth century Great Crisis than during any time until the 1940s.17 New climate data archives have begun to confirm what Voltaire explained to his mistress Madame du Chatelet in the 1740s: The period of usurpations almost from one end of the world to the other . . . were the result of government, religion and le climat.18 The planet had cooled in the Little Ice Age, which froze Chesapeake Bay; chilled Alexandria, Egypt; and killed rice crops in Japan and wheat in Portugal.19 These climate changes caused widespread famine that descended into anarchy, triggering riots and chaos throughout the world.20 The United States is more circumspect about the prospects of impending Arctic warfare. The Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power, which was signed by the service chiefs of the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard in 2007, suggests, Climate change is gradually opening up the JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

11/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (3/9)

waters of the Arctic, not only to new resource development, but also to new shipping routes that may reshape the global transport system. While these developments offer opportunities for growth, they are potential sources of competition and conflict for access and natural resources.21 In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the Arctic region holds 13% of the undiscovered oil and 30% of the undiscovered natural gas in the worldfigures that do not include potentially vast reserves of methane gas hydrates.22 Areas of the Beaufort Sea and north of Siberia as well as the waters and seabed of the Sverdrup Basin were identified as probable areas of interest.23 However, most of the Arctic energy resources are located within coastal states recognized 200-mile exclusive economic zones, which are not subject to any controversy or likely to incite conflict.24 The talk of a war over resources is inaccurate though it is red meat for Canadian and Russian nationalists; it is the prospect for new resources that is driving the competition.25 A. Factors Driving Tension There are at least five broad factors contributing to rising tension in the Arctic, and all are related to the rich natural resources in the region. The foremost Arctic resource is waterthe immense spatial resource of the Arctic Oceanas a domain of movement for international shipping. Ninety percent of international trade travels by sea, and if the Arctic ice melts, intercontinental tanker and cargo traffic between Europe and Asia will become much more economical.26 Second, high commodity prices and scarce supplies of oil, gas, and minerals mean demand for commodities is tighteven in a depressed global economy.27 If prosperity returns, commodity prices could skyrocket to feed the global economy. Third, we are experiencing a renaissance in technology for operating in the extreme Arctic environment. New technologies make drilling in the extreme conditions of the Arctic Ocean feasible, and new icebreaker designs make it easier to travel through the ice pack.28 Fourth, climate change is melting the ice, and the Arctic could be ice-free during the summer within a few years.29 While this trend increases access to the seas, the melting permafrost threatens to disrupt road and rail infrastructure on land. Finally, with increased activity and greater numbers of ships come potential new threats to homeland security. The attacks of 9/11 altered the perception of port, vessel, and waterway security, galvanizing public attention toward potential maritime vulnerabilities in Alaska.30 Norway, with an economy based on oil and fishing, wants to fence off as much of the water in the Barents Sea and surrounding Svalbard as possible in order to ensure a steady flow of new oil and other resources in the coming years.31 Oslo seeks international recognition for Norwegian control of the resource-rich waters off Svalbard; responsibility for governing the frozen island outpost was granted to the nation under a 1920 treaty.32 Russia has resisted the move; Norway and Russia are also at odds over control of portions of the Barents Sea.33 Like Norway, Greenland needs to develop natural resources if it ever hopes to declare independence and give up government subsidies from Copenhagen.34 There are other Arctic issues that sometimes are mistakenly conflated with issues
related to the Northwest Passage. These include continental shelf claims by Russia and other countries; the related debate over the legal status of the North Pole; and maritime boundary issues such as the disagreement between Canada and the United States in the Beaufort Sea and the disagreement between Canada and Denmark with regard to Hans Island, which is situated in the center of the Nares Strait between Ellesmere Island (the most northerly part of Nunavut, Canada) and Greenland. While each of these and other issues may be affected by ice changes occurring in the Arctic, they encompass separate and distinct problems and are subject to different international rules. Morris Maduro, a professor of international law at the University of Alberta, recently warned in the Edmonton Journal that mixing Arctic issues has tended to generate confusion and impede cooperation.35 For that reason, this Article focuses primarily on the legal status of the Northwest Passage, its associated diplomatic and security issues, and its effect on the global oceans order. The United States, which has been labeled the reluctant Arctic power36 but is catching up to the other Arctic nations, released a presidential-level Arctic Region Policy in January 2009.37 The Commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen, is fond of saying that when it comes to climate change and the causes of global warming, he is an agnostic: All I know is there is more water up here than ever. And I have to provide marine safety and marine security to that water.38 The milieu of Arctic politics and competing maritime claims, new Arctic security

considerations, and the promise of Arctic economic development has disturbed the historically placid Arctic politics. The epicenter of this trend is a new cold war developing between Russia and Canada. Disputes over competing claims to the continental shelf of the North Pole have unnecessarily ignited a contest of words and wills featuring Moscow and Ottawa as the principle antagonists.39 B. Russia: Responsible or Revanchist? Russia views Arctic development as a means to attain greater recognition and as a resource basin to fuel renewed economic growth powered by Arctic-region natural resources. The Arctic currently produces twenty percent of Russias GDP.40 The new Russian national security strategy warns that, within a decade, nations could be at war over resources in the Arctic Ocean.41 In language reminiscent of the hand-wringing over bipolar measurements concerning the U.S.Soviet coalition of forces in the 1970s, Moscows new strategy states that Arctic resources will become the critical point for the world military balance.42 Wrapping 170 degrees around the Arctic Circle, the high latitude nation dominates the geography of the polar north.43 Russia thinks like the North and drinks like the North. 44 The country has embarked on a project to ensure it is regarded as the first Arctic superpower. In 2001, Russia was the first nation to stake a claim to the oil and mineral resources of the seabed in the Arctic Ocean by filing a claim for exclusive resource rights under the Law of the Sea Convention.45 Canada and Denmark (Greenland) have filed claims as well.46 The cheeky 2007 submarine expedition to plant a Russian titanium flag on the seabed of the North Pole presaged Moscows entry to a geostrategic opera in the High North.47 Meanwhile, long-range Tupolev-95 Bear and Tupolev-160 Blackjack strategic bomber flights over the Arctic have been renewed after a fifteenJAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

12/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (4/9)

year suspension, raising hackles in Canada and Norway .48 Flush with petrodollars, Moscow is developing the Arctic as a cash cow to provide a future stream of oil, gas, and mineral wealth.49 Is the warning contained in the new Russian
strategy a prescient sign of the future or more bluster from the Kremlins public diplomacy machine to restore national pride? C. Canada: Progressive or Paranoid? Canada is taking Russia at its word, firing back diplomatic missives in response to each intemperate move by Moscow. At the same time, shoring up its own excessive assertions of sovereignty over large parts of the Arctic Ocean has become a national preoccupation. Canada plans to build up

to eight ice-strengthened patrol vessels to enforce strict laws in the famed Northwest Passage , a network of Arctic Ocean waterwayssome of which are 100 miles widethat connects the North Atlantic in the east to the Beaufort Sea in the west.50 Although Canada
claims these areas as internal watersthe equivalent of the Great Salt Lake in Utahunder the Law of the Sea Convention, the waters of the Passage are actually composed of a combination of territorial seas, the Canadian exclusive economic zone, and an international strait open to the international community.51 Canada was the first Arctic nation to assert controversial claims over large areas of the Arctic Ocean beyond its land territory.52 Even as other Arctic nations scramble to assert sovereign rights in the resources of the seabed, Canadas internal waters claims over vast stretches of the sea still constitute the most excessive maritime claims of any Arctic nation.53 Ottawas extensive claims are built on a northern mythos and profound disquiet over a new sense of national vulnerability that first emerged in the late 1960s.54 The result was the adoption of strict laws for marine environmental protection that purportedly apply outside the legitimate borders of the country.55 In the 1980s, straight baselines were drawn to enclose the islands and waters of the North American Arctic in a continent-wide gambit to lay claim to essentially the entire panoply of littoral and coastal regions of the Arctic Ocean in the western hemisphere.56 Canada and Denmark (in its capacity as proprietor of Greenland) dispute Hans Island, an insignificant speck of ground between the two nations.57 Canada also claims authority over part of the Beaufort Sea off the coast of Alaska and rejects Russias seabed claims in the Arctic Ocean.58 Critiquing Canadas straight baseline claims, the European Commission stated: The Member States acknowledge that elements other than purely geographical ones may be relevant for purposes of drawing baselines in particular circumstances but are not satisfied that the present baselines are justified in general. Moreover, the Member States cannot recognize the validity of a historic title as justification for the baselines drawn in accordance with the order.59 Alert, Canada's northernmost base, located on Ellesmere Island, is actually closer to Moscow than to Ottawa.60 This remote outpost for defending Canada's sovereignty had a population of only five inhabitants in the 2006 census.61

The prospect of increasing numbers of oil tankers, cargo vessels, cruise ships, oceanographic research ships, and fishing fleets entering the area compelled the five Arctic nationsRussia, Canada, the United States, Denmark, and Norwayto focus seriously on the Arctic in recent years. The five-year international Arctic marine shipping assessment found that 6,000 vessels operate in the Arctic Ocean every year.62 As a result of increased traffic, Canada's claim over the waters throughout the Northwest Passage as internal waters appears likely to weaken in the future. The United States and Canada are among the closest allies in the world; their economies, people, and destinies are intertwined.63 They share a fundamental interest in North American security. In a joint media appearance with Canadian Foreign Minister
Cannon, Secretary of State Clinton stated: Obviously, there are questions of sovereignty and jurisdiction that have to be acknowledged and respected, but

what we dont want is for the Arctic to become a free-for-all. If there is going to be greater maritime passageways through the Arctic, if there is going to be more exploration for natural resources, if there are going to be more security issues, I think its in the Canadian and the United States interests to try to get ahead of those, and try to make sure we know what were going to do to resolve them before countries that are not bordering the arctic are making claims, are behaving in ways that will cause us difficulties.64 Neither country is secure if the other is vulnerable, which is why the two neighbors have integrated continental defense under the bilateral North American Air Defense (NORAD ) military command for decades.65 Membership in NATO provides an additional opportunity for the two democracies to champion stability and freedom, with both nations sharing the burden of combat in Afghanistan.66 Canadian exceptionalism in the Arctic Ocean has weakened the ties between the two countries and provided an unflattering glimpse into how governments in Ottawaboth on the left and the right have used the Arctic to score political points at home and reject multilateralism abroad.67 At times, all nations are inclined to feel defensive within the international community, and going it alone feeds a certain hypersensitive sovereignty impulse that can appeal to fears, pride, and independence. In a world fraught with conventional and irregular military risks, political and cultural divisions, and the global economy collapsing in slow motion, the United States, Canada, and the strong network of free, democratic, and capitalist allies, friends, and partners form the fulcrum of stability that holds the world together. Ottawa and Washington are principle defenders of a stable state world system. Both nations are rich and prosper from the enjoyment of peace, liberty, and equality that is only possible with a safe and stable planet. The foundation for ocean governance is the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which is the constitution for the worlds oceans.68 Conflict avoidance, international peace and security, and global stability are directly connected
to the Law of the Sea. In the United States, the sovereignty impulse has led us astray, convincing a handful of powerful senators to reject the Law of the Sea Convention.69 They believe that going it alone protects U.S. sovereignty and promotes American interests.70 But as one of the prime beneficiaries of a stable, fair, and widely accepted global order, the United States has abandoned self-interest in favor of placating a false sense of independence by not working multilaterally to join the Law of the Sea Convention. Likewise, Canada is under the unilateralist spell of oceans sovereignty,

going it alone in the Arctic Ocean in a vain attempt to grasp a future of stability and security amidst a rapidly changing geophysical Arctic climate and unsettling and dynamic Arctic politics. Canada has resurrected sovereignty patrols, loudly
trumpeted plans to construct ice-strengthened patrol vessels to enforce unilateral rules in the Northwest Passage, and retreated behind the mythos of Canadian Arctic sovereignty.71 The storyline is recycled by the

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

13/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (5/9)

governmentmediaacademic complex to obtain the approvalor at least the acquiescenceof the international community, especially the United States. The often repeated assertion of Canadian sovereignty has acquired an elusive definition; in the media, it has become a rhetorical vessel containing varying elements of control, authority, and perception.72 There is a sense that Canada would like to exercise sovereignty over the waters and have them recognized as internal waters, but Ottawa has never determined how to do this or precisely what theory might be most effective in obtaining the support of the international community.73 Relying on cultural and policy arguments augmented by a series of claims and legislative acts over a period of time, Canadians typically view all these efforts as having coalesced into a convincing package of evidence to support claims of sovereignty.74 Outside of government, some of the rhetoric

from Canada is particularly undisciplined, with nongovernmental organizations and media making seemingly self-evident assertions that the waters are under Canadian control, oversight, jurisdiction, or
sovereignty. Some believe that an increased level of sovereignty-affirming activities by the Canadian government will secure Canadian claims. Paradoxically, rather than supporting multilateral efforts to protect arctic ecology, Canadian environmental groups are among the most strident in supporting unilateral assertions of Canadian sovereignty over the passage in order to avert what they see as an impending ecological catastrophe caused by increased shipping.75 . . . . The 1967 and 1968 Canadian straight baselines in the arctic, both in the East and West, project at numerous points tens of miles into the high seas, violating virtually every rule governing lawfully drawn baselines. The effect is to enclose the entire Canadian [A]rctic as internal waters. Even if one accepts the series of straight baselines, the international community would still enjoy the right of innocent passage through those newly enclosed internal waters. This is because the Law of the Sea Convention provides that where the establishment of straight baselines has the effect of enclosing as internal waters areas that had not previously been considered as such, a right of innocent passage still exists in those waters. Some suggest that straight baselines made by a nation before 1982 have special status and should be considered permissible. This approach is unconvincing; otherwise, the entire range of excessive maritime claims predating the 1982 Convention similarly would be permissible, thus creating a global crazy quilt of conflicting maritime claims and defeating the purpose of the Convention as one gigantic package deal.76 The problem is that the ice keeps melting

and no other nation has accepted Canadas excessive claims of sovereignty .77 The reason for this lack of acceptance is that Canadas Arctic claims are inconsistent with the Law of the Sea Convention, to which Canada became a party in 2003.78 Canadian scholars have circulated
well practiced (if not slightly tortured) theories purportedly grounded in the international law of the sea in order to manufacture a rationale that would support Canadas claims to sovereignty over an ocean.79 III. THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE In particular, the loss of sea ice in the High

North has renewed discussions over the legal status of the Arctic and subarctic transcontinental maritime routes connecting the Atlantic with the Pacific. The routes, which shorten transit from Europe to Asia by 4,000 miles, connect the North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea to the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas.80 The merchant shipping industry is also interested in using the shorter routes through the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage, and perhaps a transpolar route straight across the pole.81 The United States and Russia are poised to manage all traffic through the Bering Strait (also called the Bering Gate), a narrow choke point only fifty-two miles wide that is the gateway connecting the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean.82 The two nations should use their position astride the strait to ensure that other Arctic states adopt only internationally accepted vessel safety, security, and traffic management regulations. Compared to the current routes via the Panama Canal and Suez Canal, a transit from the Pacific to the Atlantic through the Northwest Passage could save two weeks of travel .83 The savings in transit time will be especially beneficial to European and Asian nations: EU Member States have the worlds largest merchant fleet and many of those ships use transoceanic routes. The melting of sea ice is progressively opening opportunities to navigate on routes through Arctic waters . This could
considerably shorten trips from Europe to the Pacific, save energy, reduce emissions, promote trade and diminish pressure on the main trans-continental navigation channels. But serious obstacles remain, including drift ice, lack of infrastructure, environmental risks and

uncertainties about future trade patterns. Hence the development of Arctic commercial navigation will require time and effort.84 This time savings translates into lower fuel costs, saved ship steaming time, and a reduction in labor costs for the commercial shipping industry. Although transport by ship is the most environmentally sensitive method of moving heavy cargo, bunker fuel is extremely dirty, so less travel time means fewer air emissions.85 For the armed forces, utilizing the route could facilitate improved crisis response and accelerate time-phased force deployment schedules to move forces from one theater to another.
Canada has succumbed to the sovereignty impulse because the nation fears that without ownership over the Arctic Ocean and unilateral control over the Northwest Passage, the safety, security, and environmental protection of the Arctic Archipelagoand the entire nationwill be threatened by the outside world. Much like 9/11 absorbed the psychological final measure of the American sense of self-protection and innocence regarding terrorism, the

disappearing ice cap threatens to impose the ugly reality of the world on the idyllic doorstep of Canada . Poorly maintained Third World merchant ships and their multinational crews from distant and unsavory lands will discover the new superhighway between Asian manufacturers and European markets. The result: the challenging, ice-infested waters will cause oil spills, and the multiplying number of ships will bring illegal migrants or, even worse, terrorists. In this regard, ensuring safety, security, and environmental protection in the Arctic and the Northwest Passage is a shared concern that provides an opportunity for greater cooperation not only between Canada and the United States but also among all maritime states and future users of the waterway . Although it is common (albeit unhelpful) to cast the issue of the Northwest Passage as a bilateral disagreement between the United States and Canada, it is not.86 The issue is a multilateral matter involving the interests and equities of nations from Asia and Europe. Consequently, Canada can best secure its interests in sovereignty, safety,
security, and environmental protection by proactively engaging to develop an Arctic legal regime under the framework of Law of the Sea Convention. This will mean abandoning some of the more audacious and unsupported claims of sovereignty and complying with the rules contained in the treaty. On the other hand, if it acts now, Ottawa will be able to lead the design and implementation of the new Arctic framework before the ships arrive. Canada should move quickly. Surface vessels belonging to Canada, the United States, Norway, Netherlands, Japan,

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

14/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (6/9)

Bahamas, and Liberia have fully transited the Northwest Passage nearly seventy times.87 Submarines of the United States, the United Kingdom, and presumably Russia have utilized the Arctic Ocean as a transit corridor for decades.88

Both the United States and Canada have essential national interests in developing a widely accepted respected legal regime for the Arctic Ocean and Northwest Passage before climate change alters shipping patterns. If the shipping arrives before the two North American partners can work with the international community to adopt an Arctic regime, both Washington and Ottawa will experience reduced negotiating leverage and the result will be less control over the Arctic. Hardline footdragging in Canada is squandering time and the diplomatic capital needed to negotiate such an agreement, making both nations less secure over the long run. Canada exercises complete sovereignty over the islands of the North American Arctic.89
Although there is not much open to question on the issue of Canadas sovereignty over the islands of the Canadian Arctic, it is worth addressing the issue because the point is typically obfuscated, generating chest-thumping reassurances of sovereignty.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

15/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (7/9)

Plan is key to effective polar information sharing and cooperation between the U.S and Canada through NORAD Hodges 11 Colonel James C the Commander, Mission Support Group, MacDill Air Force Base
Bachelor of Science degree in Civil Engineering, USAF Academy, Colo. Master of Science in Engineering and Policy, Washington University (Jim, 6th, Commanding the Arctic, http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110301/C4ISR02/103010308/Commanding-Arctic) While looking to protect national rights,

Canadian officials also recognize that their country is geographically positioned to protect North America from infiltrators. A partially declassified Canadian intelligence assessment, "The Canadian Arctic: Threats from Terrorists and Extremists," reportedly makes this case. The
document was obtained in November by several of the country's press outlets under Canada's Access to Information Act. The threats reportedly portrayed by the intelligence report come in stark contrast to the ISR and communications links Canada has available in the Arctic. Besides the Defense Early Warning radars, there are patrol boats and airplanes, along with older, smaller radar facilities and a few Royal Canadian Mounted Police outposts. It has been an inexpensive system that has

we didn't even understand the communications challenge," Huebert said. "We were having situations so overt that the prime minister would go up and check things out, and all of the phone services would blank out because the cell phones would just overwhelm the existing system." The Canadian winter is becoming shorter and the need for ISR technology
counted on the formidable Canadian winter as its greatest asset. It is clear that "

is greater, Huebert said. "I just got back from a conference with some people who live in the Eastern Arctic," he said, "and they say that, for the first time in their lifetimes, they are seeing open water in January." The trade route from Europe to China shrinks by 4,000 miles when ships go through the Arctic, where they also avoid the tolls and size limitations of the Suez and Panama canals, as well as the increased insurance rates charged for sailing in the pirate-terrorized waters off Africa. The Northwest Passage , a route between the Atlantic and Pacific through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is open longer because of the diminishing ice, and each year more ships come through the passage. NORAD'S POSITION For now, NORAD counsels calm.
"While sometimes we see mixed signals from other nations in this regard, it seems to me that no nation has an interest in a militarized Arctic," U.S. Adm. James Winnefeld, the NORAD commander, told an audience in Toronto. Perhaps, but Norway is buying 48 F-35 aircraft. Canada test-

landed a C-17 at Alert, the northernmost air base in the world, last spring and has talked of buying 65 F-35s. While Canada and Russia work cooperatively in some respects, for example, a Russian Soyuz rocket launched Canada's latest ship-spotting Radarsat spacecraft in 2007 there is also evidence of competition. On July 31, two Canadian fighters scrambled to turn back two Russian TU-95 longrange bombers in a buffer zone just outside Canadian airspace. But then, 11 days later, NORAD and the Russian Federation Air Forces held their first joint counter air-terrorism exercise. Three

weeks before Winnefeld's Toronto speech, NORAD and the U.S. Northern Command sponsored an "Intelligence Support to the Arctic" conference in Chantilly, Va.; a top secret security clearance was required to attend. "While things are changing relatively rapidly, I think we just have a measured response as to how quickly we deal with the Arctic," said Canadian Naval Capt. Kurt Salchert, head of maritime ISR for NORAD. "It's not going to melt overnight, but we are watching and trying to anticipate what's happening in the Arctic." That's NORAD-speak for planning, which is going on at the organization's Colorado Springs, Colo., headquarters. It's the sort of talk that sets off Huebert and others who have sounded alarms about the shrinking Arctic ice and increased maritime possibilities for more than a decade. "At times

"If you're not saying the common theme, not saying what people want to hear, they are shutting you out." NEW EYES AND EARS For now, Canada's two Radarsat spacecraft remain the most visible ISR asset in the region with their cloud-free images
I think people are listening, and at times I think there's a Cassandra syndrome," Huebert said.
of ice and ships made available to NORAD. After launching Radarsat-2 in December 2007, the Canadian military paid $25 million to MacDonald Dettwiler of Richmond, British Columbia, to bolster Radarsat-2's capability to offer surveillance of the nation's Arctic maritime region and to facilitate ship-tracking. "The [Canadian] Coast Guard is ecstatic with Radarsat," Huebert said. "Every operator I've talked to in both the ice services and the Department of National Defence says the imagery coming back is astonishing." A constellation of three smaller Radarsat satellites is scheduled for launch in 2014-15 to provide more flexibility in surveillance and communication. Other kinds of sensors are being developed in a 3-year-old program called the Northern Watch Technology Demonstration Project, run by Defence Research and Development Canada. Canada hopes to improve collections by establishing layers of sensors from orbit to the ocean, to land, with the Northwest Passage

The work is proving difficult. "We're fighting two things: technology, to make sure it meets our expectations, and the environment," Williams said. That was evident in testing a sonar array over the last two years in Gascoyne Inlet, off Devon Island in the Barrow Strait, at the eastern entrance to the
considered a priority. Northwest Passage. Using an annual six- to eight-week weather window for infrastructure implementation, Northern Watch technicians aboard a ship laid down a tethered sonar instrument, called the Rapidly Deployable Sonar, at a choke point to the passage to test its ability to detect surface and submarine traffic. The object was to provide persistent surveillance to complement the intermittent information offered by satellites. In the first year, the 11-meter-long sonar array was deployed in a storm and part of it was damaged by ice. The healthy part sent usable data. "The next year, we got a little smarter and made ourselves more logistically flexible," Williams said. "We were able to deploy the capability and were able to gather information. Also, fortuitously, a couple of ships came by, which gave us the opportunity to gather data on real targets. "So you walk a little, you run a little, then you run a little more through the process of this technology demonstration." The array

Canada also hopes to overcome technical challenges discovered when officials tried to use existing High Frequency Surface Wave Radars for Arctic surveillance. The
works. When or if it will be deployed is up to Canada's military, and whether it can be squeezed into the defense budget.

land-based radars, which use the ocean's saltwater as a conducting surface, have proven adept at detecting ships at long distances when pointed east or west from the Canadian coasts. But aimed north, the radars experience interference from the charged particles of the

Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights. "Right now it's very experimental ," Williams said. "It's very effective when it operates. It's very inexpensive because you've expanded the range from terrestrial platforms and not had to force a presence in the extreme north." Spotty communications satellite coverage is another issue. ISR aircraft and ocean sensors need a method to relay their information to command and control centers, but options are limited over the Arctic because communications satellites are parked over the equator, with their antennas arrayed to maximize coverage of populated areas; coverage usually is limited to 70 degrees north. Possible solutions are under consideration. McDonald Dettwiler is working on a satellite that would follow an elliptical
orbit to facilitate reception and transmission in the Arctic. Other ideas are to put ground antennas up high enough to transmit to geosynchronous satellites or condense and prioritize information to conserve bandwidth. While the sonar array was deployed underwater, Operation Nanook, an annual summer Canadian military exercise, was going on above it. Last year, for the first time, a U.S. Navy ship, the destroyer Porter, was part of the operation. So, too, were Raytheon personnel, who were aboard Porter and later the Canadian Navy frigate Montreal to demonstrate a software tool called the Raytheon Arctic

If intelligence officials know where the ice isn't, they know where to look for ships. Raytheon hopes to sell the software to Canada and the U.S. Navy. The software has potential as a command and control architecture for ISR
Monitoring Prediction, or RAMP. The software synthesizes environmental sensor data to monitor retreating ice. continental shelf.

sensors, according to Steve Shelton of Raytheon. "We were working with land-based, ship-based and buoy-based observations that get reported by sensor suites," said Bob Bowne, RAMP's chief engineer. "We fused together sensor products to provide additional value to develop situation awareness." Though Raytheon used readings from a German satellite called TanDEM-X during the demonstration, Radarsat-2 also could serve, Browne said. Using undersea unmanned vehicles, Canada also has embarked on a program, Operation Cornerstone, to map the floor of its Arctic claims and determine the limits of its

The country has a deadline of December 2014 to submit territorial boundaries to the United Nations. At stake could be access to part of an estimated 25 percent of the world's unproven oil reserves in the Arctic region. For now, NORAD is working on a plan for increased maritime information-sharing between the U.S. and Canada, but even that involves unusual caveats for a military organization. Because the Canadian Arctic has not only warship traffic but also
commercial shipping and fishing vessels, and because other

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

16/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (8/9)

. "Our equity within this is to assure that information is shared within the law, within the bounds of privacy," said Salchert of NORAD. "Indisputably, there is information that is not shared because of prosecutorial and regulatory reasons. We abide by the law, but we endeavor to affect a comprehensive shared understanding across the governments of Canada and the United States." Before any of that is an issue, though, the information has to be harvested and there is, for now at least, a dearth of tools to do it.
governmental agencies such as those that regulate transportation, immigration and law enforcement have jurisdiction, depending on the issue, information-sharing can become problematic

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

17/21

HS TOC

Apple Jacks (9/9)

Increased naval operations key to prevent Arctic conflicts, specifically with Russia Goldenberg 11 (Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent, The Guardian (UK), Prepare for Arctic struggle as climate changes, US navy
warned, 3-10-2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/mar/10/arctic-struggle-climate-change)

America urgently needs to build up its military readiness in the Arctic where melting summer sea ice is setting up a global struggle for resources, a study prepared for the US navy has warned. The report by the National Academy of Sciences warned that climate change could upset the delicate security balance in the Arctic even among close allies and that America is unprepared for the challenges ahead. "The US military as a whole has lost most of its competence in cold-weather operations for Arctic weather ," the report, National Security Implications of Climate Change for US Naval Forces,
warned. "In the immediate term, the navy should begin Arctic training and the marine corps should also establish a cold weather training programme." The report warned that America was currently unprepared to defend its interests in the Arctic. Current submarine systems would be challenged to operate in the Arctic, the report warned. In addition, the coastguard has just three ice breakers, and these are old and obsolete. It went on to call on the navy to develop an Arctic observer and research service, with remote sensing equipment such as satellites and drones. "Even the most moderate predicted

trends in climate change will present new national security challenges for the US navy, marine corps, and coastguard," said Frank Bowman, a retired US navy admiral and co-chair of the committee that produced the report. "Naval forces need to monitor
more closely and start preparing now for projected challenges climate change will present in the future," Bowman said. The report said that it expected large stretches of the Arctic to be ice-free in the summer by 2030, if current rates of ice loss continued. Competition for oil and gas in the region

was bound to increase, the report said. Last year, Scottish oil producer Cairn Energy confirmed it had found oil off the coast of Greenland and one of Nato's senior commanders warned the race for resources could lead to conflict . "The geopolitical situation in the Arctic region has become complex and nuanced, despite the area being essentially ignored since the end of the Cold War," the report warns. Between them, the countries sharing the Arctic, which include the US, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, Iceland, Sweden and Finland, have a number of unresolved disputes over boundaries as well as resources, the report warned. Although the report acknowledged the potential for conflict in the Arctic was low, it warned: "Co-operation in the Arctic should not be considered a given even among close allies." The report, four years in the making, reflects growing concern in US military and strategic circles about the security implications of climate change.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

18/21

HS TOC

Lucky Charms (1/2)

Thus the plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its acquisition of it hosted protected military communications satellite payloads in Molniya orbit. Hosting military communications payloads in Molniya orbit is the only way to provide satellite connectivity to the Arctic key to military readiness and commercial development Smith, et al 11 (Patrick L. Smith, former engineer, Aerospace Corporation, coauthored two AIAA papers on the effects of climate change on
national security space programs, Ph.D. engineering, UCLA; Leslie A. Wickman, Senior Engineering Specialist, Space Architecture Department, Aerospace Corporation, Director of the Center for Research in Science at Azusa Pacific University, current projects include research on global climate change and national security issues, and assessment of current and future space mission technologies and their applications, B.A., political science, Willamette University, M.S., aeronautical and astronautical engineering, Ph.D., human factors and biomechanics, Stanford University; and Inki A. Min, Principal Engineering Specialist, Architecture and Design Subdivision, Aerospace Corporation, leads and performs system-level analyses of various Air Force, NASA, and NRO projects, Ph.D., aeronautics, Caltech; Broadband Satellite Communications for Future U.S. Military and Coast Guard Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic, Crosslink, Summer 2011, http://www.aero.org/publications/crosslink/summer2011/02.html ) The Aerospace Corporation is exploring possibilities for satellite broadband services in the Arctic, as that region is rapidly changing because of ice melt. During the past 23 years, 41 percent of the perennial Arctic ice has melted. Between 2004 and 2005 alone, 14 percent was lost. The volume of ice at the peak of the 2009 annual freeze was the lowest on record, (until March 2011) and of that, only 30 percent was thick, slow-melting multiyear ice. The Northwest Passage briefly opened in 2007, and could soon become a busy navigation route, cutting about 7000 kilometers from the shipping routes between Asia and Europe. At the same time, a U.S. Geological Survey report suggests that the Arctic seabed may hold as much as 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves. Sovereign rights to energy resources in the Arctic seabed remain largely undetermined under international law. The U.N. Convention of the Law of the Sea provides a general legal framework to govern the use of the world's oceans and resources, and the major players in the region are scrambling for evidence to bolster their claims under the treaty (which has not yet been ratified by the United States). The U.S. Navy,

Coast Guard, and other military services have begun planning for increased operations in the Arctic, which is
predicted to become essentially ice-free in summers as early as 2025. To assist the military's efforts, The Aerospace Corporation began a study in 2007 to determine the impacts of climate change on future national security space requirements, including manufacturing and launch operationswith a

particular focus on the need for broadband satellite communications in the Arctic to support increased U.S. fleet and Coast Guard operations. Satellite Coverage of the Arctic Region The Arctic is very different from lower latitudes in regard to space system constraints and capabilities. Weather and imaging satellites have excellent coverage because their inclined
sun-synchronous orbits put them in view on every pass. On the other hand, passive imagery for ice monitoring and other types of surveillance is hampered by persistent cloud cover and seasonal darkness. GPS is available, but the lower elevation angles to the satellites and increased ionospheric effects somewhat reduce positioning accuracy. Communications in the Arctic region are quite limited. Dedicated U.S. military

communication satellites typically fly in equatorial geostationary orbits (GEO), which are below the 10-degree elevation constraint on most terminals within the Arctic region and therefore not accessible. Options for 24/7 Arctic
coverage include three satellites in 90 degree inclined geosynchronous orbits; four satellites in medium altitude elliptical (or "magic") orbits; three satellites in "tundra" elliptical 63.4 degrees inclined geosynchronous orbits; or two satellites in highly elliptical molniya orbits. The most efficient

constellation for dedicated Arctic communications is a phased two-satellite molniya constellation. However, molniya
satellites have different payload and antenna designs, ground-station connectivity, and user terminals than GEO satellites. Terminal antennas must continuously track satellites in molniya orbits and switch between them as they move in and out of view. Also, because it is too costly to maintain a spare satellite in each orbital plane, a satellite failure in a molniya constellation will result in a periodic gap in coverage, which would probably take many months to remedy through the launch of a replacement satellite, whereas in GEO, a spare satellite is easily shifted to take a failed satellite's place. Researchers from NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and others using satellite data detected a significant loss in Arctic sea ice in 2005. Satellites have made continual observations of Arctic sea ice extent since 1978, and the 2005 data showed the extent had dropped to 2.05 million square miles, the lowest levels yet recorded. There are established U.S. military requirements for communications support for submarines,

aircraft, and other platforms and forces operating in the high northern latitudes (as in all other theaters), but these requirements do not take into account increased military and Coast Guard operations in the region as a result of accelerated Arctic melting. At lower latitudes, there are several ways to surge military communications capacity, such as repositioning geosynchronous satellites, leasing commercial satellite transponders, and linking to fiber networks. None of these options is feasible in the Arctic region. The current Interim Polar System (IPS) and follow-on Enhanced Polar System (EPS) are strategic communications payloads hosted on other satellites. The IPS program was established in 1995 after the original plan to place Milstar satellites in inclined geosynchronous orbits was scrapped (IPS packages are basically low-data-rate Milstar payloads). EPS is an upgrade based on Advanced Extremely High Frequency technology and the eXtended Data Rate waveform and will provide connectivity to Global Information Grid gateways . EPS terminals are being procured by each service under separate contracts, and the mission control segment will be part of the AEHF mission control segment. Iridium Satellite LLC provides the only commercial satellite communications service available in the Arctic region. The
Iridium constellation provides 2.4-kilobyte-per-second channels for voice and data. U.S. government users comprise about 25 percent of the 100,000 or so subscribers under a long-term service contract signed in 2000. Military uses of Iridium continue to evolve. For example, the U.S. Air Force is reportedly

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

19/21

HS TOC
deploying more than 280 meteorological data terminals that relay data to a processing center via Iridium. The U.S. government has its own Iridium gateway for secure access to the system. Russian communication satellites in molniya orbits provide

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

20/21

HS TOC

Lucky Charms (2/2)

communications to their military forces (molniya orbits were first used by the USSR). Reportedly, there are 16 operational molniya satellites carrying the Russian Orbita Television network as well as commercial, government, and military communications traffic. Future Options for Arctic Broadband More-

capable alternatives to the IPS and EPS hosted payloads have been studied by the Air Force. A 2004 study considered a dedicated molniya constellation crosslinked to the then-planned TSAT constellation. A 2008 study considered a constellation of small satellites. But free-flyer alternatives cost more than hosted payloads, which have remained the preferred options for military strategic communications in the Arctic up to now

. The Canadian Coast Guard ship Louis S. St. Laurent (left) and U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy (right) on the Arctic Ocean. The ships came together to learn the operations of one another during a

scientific expedition to map the Arctic seafloor in 2008. The range of options for future military broadband satellite communications in the Arctic region include hosted payloads (as with IPS and EPS), a dedicated molniya constellation, a combined all-latitudes constellation (such as the inclined 24-hour synchronous orbits originally considered for Milstar), a shared or joint program with allies, and leased commercial transponders (if a commercial broadband system becomes available in the future). Steps toward acquiring a dedicated military broadband system will need to start with a formal set of requirements followed by preliminary design studies and cost estimates for a range of development options. The final set of requirements and development budget would have to be negotiated and approved by all parties, including Congress. Aerospace has studied orbital coverage options and preliminary satellite concepts for the region. A typical example is a commercial-class molniya system providing up to 2 gigabytes per second of bandwidth capacity, which is estimated to cost approximately $1 billion plus the costs of user terminals and ground operations. Higher levels of protection and survivability would cost more. Smaller satellites would cost less but provide significantly less bandwidth because of the less-efficient payload-mass fraction. Given the uncertain pace of future Arctic melting, it is premature to recommend a dedicated program for military broadband service in the Arctic region. An alllatitude system (as originally planned for Milstar) may turn out to be the best long-term solution. An attractive option in the near term might be a joint program with U.S. allies or a commercial operator. Possibilities include: An assessment of polar broadband communications options. Iridium Next Iridium reportedly has partners and financing for the follow-on Iridium Next system (current Iridium satellites are already well beyond their design lifetimes). Iridium Next plans to offer Internet Protocol broadband channels with rates of up to 10 megabytes per second, which would provide a modest level of broadband communications as early as 2016 if development goes as planned; however, the available bandwidth would not support the most capable unmanned aerial vehicles, and there may be other limitations on U.S. military use as well, given the foreign ownership of Iridium Next. Polar Communications and Weather The Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) system being developed by the Canadian Space Agency and Environment Canada consists of two multimission spacecraft in molniya orbits. One of the proposed payloads is a Ka-band communications package with a capacity similar to Iridium Next. The PCW system may offer a partnership opportunity that might provide some level of broadband service to U.S. military users. The U.S. currently has Radarsat-2 data-sharing agreements, for example, which could serve as a model. Canadian developers have reportedly had discussions with Finland, Norway, Russia, and the United States. One concern, however, is that the multimission PCW initiative is primarily a remote sensing program, and if cost or weight-growth issues arise, the secondary communications package might be downsized or dropped altogether. As with Iridium, foreign partners might also restrict the U.S. military's use of the system's communications package. Assessment criteria for polar broadband communications options. Russian Programs Russia already provides various communications services in the Arctic region with its molniya systems. In 2010, Russia announced plans to develop a molniya satellite cluster called "Arktika" for weather and ice monitoring, broadcast communications, and data relay from Arctic buoys and automated weather stations. The Arktika-M spacecraft is designed to measure polar winds, cloud cover, precipitation, and ice parameters. The Arktika-R spacecraft will have synthetic-aperture radar, and the Arktika-MS spacecraft will provide telephone communications, relay television, and FM radio broadcasts to aircraft and ships. Russia has also announced plans for a molniya version of its Express series of GEO communications satellites based on the 8-12 kilowatt Express-4000 bus. The Express-RV is designed to provide Internet access and broadcast service. Some European nations, including NATO members, have reportedly expressed interest in partnering with Russia in the development of these systems,

Providing broadband and other communication services for oil exploration, air travel, shipping, tourism, and other activities may offer future business opportunities; however, the hurdle for closing the business case for a commercial Arctic molniya system will be higher than for a typical GEO system. Two satellites are needed for continuous coverage, and the satellites require extra
which could potentially meet certain U.S. military and Coast Guard needs as well, such as communications for search and rescue and disaster response. Commercial Broadband

radiation hardening. Demand and spot lease revenue will be highly seasonal. Private investors will want higher expected returns to compensate for risks of uncertain demand growth, unresolved treaty issues, and non-GEO satellite development and operations. The European Space Agency is exploring potential future demand for communication services in the Arctic to identify possible development opportunities for the European industry. Potential markets include search and rescue, vessel traffic systems, maritime highways, in situ sensor data collection and dissemination, and surveillance and military activities. The broadband market in the Arctic will eventually be substantial, but at this point, it is impossible to

predict how fast demand will grow. Thus, it is unlikely a commercial business case can close in the near term without the Department of Defense as a partner in development or as a long-term anchor tenant. The potential growth of bandwidth requirements in the Arctic region over the next 15 years. Summary National security space planners should start anticipating new military support requirements arising from increased military and Coast Guard operations in the Arctic. U.S. military satellite communications are limited at high latitudes, and there is no ability to surge capabilities by rephasing satellite orbits or leasing commercial transponders. The lack of broadband communication in the Arctic will constrain the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and other military operations when nations in the region are jockeying for influence and control. Developing a dedicated military broadband molniya system cannot be justified in the near term, so the Department of Defense should work with potential international and commercial partners to explore opportunities for jointly developing a broadband system.
Assured access to foreign and commercial synthetic-aperture radar imagery for ice surveillance should also be a priority.

JAMMBBAHHHHHH brilliant pebbles RIP

21/21