Extreme Weather and Climate Change

Southern Alliance for Clean Energy - Webinar

JAMES BRADBURY, SENIOR ASSOCIATE October 24, 2012 CLIMATE AND ENERGY PROGRAM, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE

Recent Science Assessment Reports

IPCC AR4, 2007 SR SREX; 2012 U.S. GCRP, 2009 SAPs, 2004 - 2009
America's Climate Choices 2010-2011; NRC-NAS

Webinar Outline
Why do we care about extreme weather and climate?
Economic and infrastructure costs Recent events of national significance

Links between extreme weather/ climate and humancaused climate change; background from science assessment reports
CO2 emissions Temperature Precipitation Sea Level Rise Human Health

Most recent science

Weather-related disasters can be costly

Source: NOAA

States affected by billon dollar events

Source: NOAA

Significant Weather-Related U.S Electric Grid Disturbances

Source: U.S. GCRP, 2009

Summer 2011 Temperature Rankings

Source: NOAA

2012 Hurricane Isaac

Source: NOAA-NWS

Over $2.5m in losses ~1 million lost power (LA, MS) Up to 20 inches of rain Isaacs storm surge coupled With Midwest drought caused the Mississippi River to reverse flow for 24 hours

2012 on track to be hottest on U.S. record

Source: NOAA

Current Drought Conditions

Implications of 2012 Drought

Worst drought since 1956 Corn and soybean prices reached record highs, affecting:
- Food prices - Feed prices (cattle and chicken farming) - Global food supply - Fuel prices

Source: Bloomberg.com

GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS

Drpinna.com

Source: NOAA

Fossil fuel combustion drives up atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Total carbon emissions from fossil-fuels
Source: NOAA

Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide

Source: CDIAC

The scientific consensus

Most of the recent warming can be attributed to fossil fuel burning
National Research Council of the U.S. National Academies, 2010

Climate science research community

Multiple science assessments agree:
NAS U.S. GCRP IPCC

National science academies

2009 statement, G8 + 5
Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Mexico Russia South Africa United Kingdom United States

Major scientific associations

American Association for the Advancement of Science American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Meteorological Society American Physical Society American Statistical Association

97-98% of publishing climate research scientists agree

The scientific consensus

Most of the recent warming can be attributed to fossil fuel burning
National Research Council of the U.S. National Academies, 2010

Climate science research community

Multiple science assessments agree:
NAS U.S. GCRP IPCC

National science academies

2009 statement, G8 + 5
Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Mexico Russia South Africa United Kingdom United States

Major scientific associations

American Association for the Advancement of Science American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Meteorological Society American Physical Society American Statistical Association

97-98% of publishing climate research scientists agree

The scientific consensus

Most of the recent warming can be attributed to fossil fuel burning
National Research Council of the U.S. National Academies, 2010

Climate science research community

Multiple science assessments agree:
NAS U.S. GCRP IPCC

National science academies

2009 statement, G8 + 5
Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Mexico Russia South Africa United Kingdom United States

Major scientific associations

American Association for the Advancement of Science American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Meteorological Society American Physical Society American Statistical Association

97-98% of publishing climate research scientists agree

The scientific consensus

Most of the recent warming can be attributed to fossil fuel burning
National Research Council of the U.S. National Academies, 2010

Climate science research community

Multiple science assessments agree:
NAS U.S. GCRP IPCC

National science academies

2009 statement, G8 + 5
Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Mexico Russia South Africa United Kingdom United States

Major scientific associations

American Association for the Advancement of Science American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Meteorological Society American Physical Society American Statistical Association

97-98% of publishing climate research scientists agree

TEMPERATURE

climate.uvic.ca

The Earth is Warming

Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index

Source: NASA GISS (January 201 2)

What does the future hold? it depends

Source: National Research Council, 2011

The number of days per year in which historic temperatures exceeded 100F

Recent Past, 1961-1979

Source: U.S. GCRP, 2009

The number of days per year in which temperatures are projected to exceed 100F

Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

Source: U.S. GCRP, 2009

The number of days per year in which temperatures are projected to exceed 100F

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

Source: U.S. GCRP, 2009

PRECIPITATION

Precipitation patterns are changing

Annual precipitation trends: 1900 to 2000

Source: UNEP Grid Arendal

Increases in the Number of Days with Very Heavy Precipitation

Percent increase in average # of days with very heavy precipitation (1958 to 2007)
Source: U.S. GCRP, 2009

Global Increase in Heavy Precipitation 1900-2100

Source: National Research Council, 2011

SEA LEVEL RISE

Associated Press

Global Average Sea Level Rise is Accelerating

Source: NRC, 2010; Figure 7.2

Accelerated SLR is projected to continue

Source: NRC, 2010; Figure 7.6

FOREST FIRES

Climate change will lead to an increase in the intensity of rainfall and the frequency of heat waves, flooding, and wildfire.
NRC, 2010

Climate change has likely contributed to a fourfold increase in forest fires in the American West during the past 30 years.

Key Factors
Longer fire season Earlier snowmelt Higher temperatures Drought Forest pests (e.g., pine beetle)

Photos: Kari Greer (top), Ignacio Peralta (bottom)

IMPACTS TO HUMAN HEALTH

Source: U.S. GCRP, 2009

MOST RECENT RESEARCH

Image Source: Hayhoe, 2010

Record highs twice as common as record lows

Source: Meehl et al., 2009

IPCC 2012 Special Report: Key Takeaways

1. 2. Extreme weather is on the rise around the world Extreme weather and climate disasters are deadly and expensive; losses are increasing A warming world will likely be a more extreme world Greenhouse gas pollution is likely driving some of these trends Adaptation and disaster risk management can enhance resilience; differences in vulnerability and exposure must be considered in the design of such initiatives

3. 4. 5.

Source: IPCC SREX, 2012

Types of Extreme Weather

Image Source: Union of Concerned Scientists (based on IPCC SREX, 2012)

Climate change made 2011 Texas drought distinctly more probable Rupp et al., 2012

Loading the climate dice

Source: Hansen et. al., 2012 (PNAS)

Thank You
James Bradbury, Senior Associate, World Resources Institute jbradbury@wri.org; 202-729-7849

Oct 24, 2012